{
  "timestamp": "2026-08-13T01:49:52.086357",
  "total_score": 26.1,
  "raw_score": 26.1,
  "level": "BUILDING",
  "burry_signal": 23.6,
  "burry_complacency_multiplier": false,
  "burry_alerts": [],
  "domains": [
    {
      "name": "DEBT_BUBBLE",
      "weight": 0.2,
      "score": 12.9,
      "sub_scores": {
        "consumer_delinq": 24.2,
        "cc_delinq": 18.4,
        "cre_delinq": 26.2,
        "all_delinq": 9.6,
        "delinq_accel": 0,
        "lending_stds": 12.1,
        "hy_spread": 0
      },
      "details": "Top: cre_delinq=26, consumer_delinq=24, cc_delinq=18"
    },
    {
      "name": "SHADOW_CREDIT",
      "weight": 0.15,
      "score": 30.4,
      "sub_scores": {
        "nbfi_loans": 0,
        "lev_distress": 68.3,
        "corp_debt": 6.7,
        "broker_leverage": 88.6,
        "ccc_spread": 18.7,
        "hy_credit": 0
      },
      "details": "Top: broker_leverage=89, lev_distress=68, ccc_spread=19"
    },
    {
      "name": "LIQUIDITY",
      "weight": 0.18,
      "score": 33.8,
      "sub_scores": {
        "rrp": 100,
        "fed_balance": 58.2,
        "stress_idx": 0.9,
        "m2_velocity": 11.1,
        "tga_draw": 0,
        "sofr_effr": 3.3,
        "treasury_buyback": 63.1
      },
      "details": "Top: rrp=100, treasury_buyback=63, fed_balance=58"
    },
    {
      "name": "VALUATION",
      "weight": 0.13,
      "score": 37.5,
      "sub_scores": {
        "buffett": 19.7,
        "mag7_conc": 39.5,
        "spy_rsp": 25.0,
        "home_prices": 65.8
      },
      "details": "Top: home_prices=66, mag7_conc=39, spy_rsp=25"
    },
    {
      "name": "SMART_MONEY",
      "weight": 0.08,
      "score": 29.1,
      "sub_scores": {
        "brk_cash": 58.1,
        "flight_safety": 0
      },
      "details": "Top: brk_cash=58, flight_safety=0"
    },
    {
      "name": "FISCAL",
      "weight": 0.08,
      "score": 36.0,
      "sub_scores": {
        "debt_gdp": 40.2,
        "foreign_selling": 0,
        "dollar": 24.5,
        "fed_debt_abs": 79.2
      },
      "details": "Top: fed_debt_abs=79, debt_gdp=40, dollar=24"
    },
    {
      "name": "REAL_ECONOMY",
      "weight": 0.08,
      "score": 27.3,
      "sub_scores": {
        "housing": 62.0,
        "industrial": 18.0,
        "starts_level": 37.9,
        "permits": 14.2,
        "claims": 4.5
      },
      "details": "Top: housing=62, starts_level=38, industrial=18"
    },
    {
      "name": "CONTAGION",
      "weight": 0.1,
      "score": 5.9,
      "sub_scores": {
        "bank_corr": 0,
        "cross_asset": 6.9,
        "sofr_effr": 3.3,
        "bank_diverge": 19.4,
        "bond_vol": 0
      },
      "details": "Top: bank_diverge=19, cross_asset=7, sofr_effr=3"
    }
  ],
  "amplifiers": [],
  "patterns": [
    {
      "name": "PRE_2020_COVID",
      "year": 2020,
      "description": "COVID-Crash 2020 \u2014 Fragile Struktur + exogener Schock",
      "similarity": 0.918,
      "profile_overlap": 0.67,
      "combined_score": 0.842,
      "matching_domains": [
        "VALUATION",
        "LIQUIDITY"
      ],
      "warning_signs": [
        "Repo-Markt-Stress (September 2019) zeigte versteckte Fragilit\u00e4t",
        "Corporate Debt auf Rekordniveau",
        "Hohe Bewertungen bei niedrigem VIX = Complacency",
        "Exogener Schock trifft auf fragile Struktur"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "PRE_1929_DEPRESSION",
      "year": 1929,
      "description": "Gro\u00dfe Depression 1929 \u2014 Margin-Schulden, Spekulation, Bankenschw\u00e4che",
      "similarity": 0.856,
      "profile_overlap": 0.67,
      "combined_score": 0.799,
      "matching_domains": [
        "VALUATION",
        "LIQUIDITY"
      ],
      "warning_signs": [
        "Exzessive Margin-Verschuldung",
        "Spekulative Manie in breiter Bev\u00f6lkerung",
        "Fed strafft Geldpolitik in spekulatives Umfeld hinein",
        "Realwirtschaft (Landwirtschaft) bereits schwach"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "PRE_2026_SHADOW_CREDIT",
      "year": 2026,
      "description": "Private Credit + AI-Infrastruktur 2026 \u2014 $2T Shadow Credit, Redemption Gates, AI-Leverage",
      "similarity": 0.914,
      "profile_overlap": 0.33,
      "combined_score": 0.74,
      "matching_domains": [
        "LIQUIDITY"
      ],
      "warning_signs": [
        "Fed fordert Banken auf, Private-Credit-Exposure offenzulegen (April 2026)",
        "Blue Owl, BlackRock, Cliffwater frieren R\u00fcckzahlungen ein \u2014 Redemption Gates",
        "Apollo-Insider: Leveraged Loans nur 20-40 Cents auf den Dollar wert",
        "AI-Infrastruktur ($100B+ Oracle, $47B Blue Owl) auf Pump finanziert",
        "Pensionsfonds und Versicherungen weltweit exponiert, ohne es zu wissen"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "PRE_2000_DOTCOM",
      "year": 2000,
      "description": "Dotcom-Blase 2000 \u2014 Extreme Bewertungen, Konzentration in Tech",
      "similarity": 0.841,
      "profile_overlap": 0.33,
      "combined_score": 0.689,
      "matching_domains": [
        "VALUATION"
      ],
      "warning_signs": [
        "Bewertungen auf historischen Extremen",
        "Extreme Marktkonzentration in wenigen Tech-Aktien",
        "Divergenz zwischen Cap-Weighted und Equal-Weight Indizes",
        "IPO-Mania und Spekulation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "PRE_2008_SUBPRIME",
      "year": 2008,
      "description": "Subprime-Krise 2008 \u2014 Kreditblase, laxe Standards, steigende Ausf\u00e4lle",
      "similarity": 0.831,
      "profile_overlap": 0.0,
      "combined_score": 0.581,
      "matching_domains": [],
      "warning_signs": [
        "Steigende Subprime-Ausfallraten bei weiterhin hoher Kreditvergabe",
        "Banken stark korreliert \u2014 systemisches Risiko",
        "Smart Money kauft CDS / Absicherung",
        "Housing Starts fallen Monate vor dem Aktienmarkt"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "yield_curve": {
    "spread_10y2y": 0.31,
    "spread_10y3m": 0.56,
    "inversion_days_10y2y": 0,
    "inversion_days_10y3m": 0
  },
  "key_indicators": {
    "sp500": 7413.8301,
    "vix": 17.87,
    "dxy": 101.109,
    "gold": 4038.7,
    "silver": 58.445,
    "gold_silver_ratio": 69.1,
    "btc": 59489.9883,
    "oil": 70.66,
    "treasury_10y": 4.4,
    "consumer_sentiment": 44.8,
    "buffett_indicator": 111.67606871346172
  },
  "readings_count": 96,
  "prediction": {
    "probability_6m": 0.214,
    "probability_12m": 0.36,
    "probability_18m": 0.36,
    "confidence_band": 0.08,
    "probability_6m_pct": "21%",
    "probability_12m_pct": "36%",
    "probability_18m_pct": "36%",
    "confidence_band_pct": "\u00b18pp",
    "methodology": "Bayesian adjustment from base rate using empirically documented leading indicators"
  },
  "regime": {
    "primary": "ACCUMULATION",
    "primary_score": 0.8,
    "primary_checks": [
      "VIX niedrig",
      "HY Spreads eng",
      "Claims niedrig",
      "Kreditstandards normal"
    ],
    "secondary": "DISTRIBUTION",
    "secondary_score": 0.6,
    "secondary_checks": [
      "Buffett hortet Cash",
      "Housing schw\u00e4cht sich ab",
      "Yield Curve warnt"
    ],
    "transitioning": true,
    "description": "Risikoaufbau \u2014 Kredite wachsen, Spreads eng, VIX niedrig",
    "crash_horizon": "12-36 Monate (kein unmittelbares Risiko)",
    "color": "#00ff88",
    "all_scores": {
      "ACCUMULATION": 0.8,
      "DISTRIBUTION": 0.6,
      "TRIGGER": 0.0,
      "CASCADE": 0.0
    }
  },
  "leading_indicators": [
    {
      "name": "Yield Curve Inversion",
      "signal": 75.0,
      "base_signal": 75,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "lead_months": "12-18",
      "source": "Harvey (1988), 8/8 recessions since 1960",
      "detail": "10Y-2Y Spread: 0.31% | Recently un-inverted \u2014 DANGER ZONE"
    },
    {
      "name": "Housing Starts Decline",
      "signal": 75,
      "base_signal": 60,
      "momentum_boost": 15,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "lead_months": "6-9",
      "source": "Leamer (2007), housing leads business cycle",
      "detail": "Housing starts: 1177K | -21% from peak"
    },
    {
      "name": "Liquidity Drain",
      "signal": 80.0,
      "base_signal": 80,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "lead_months": "3-9",
      "source": "Repo crisis Sep 2019 preceded COVID crash",
      "detail": "RRP: $0B \u2014 BUFFER DEPLETED | Fed BS: $6.7T"
    },
    {
      "name": "Smart Money: Buffett Cash",
      "signal": 45.0,
      "base_signal": 45,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "lead_months": "3-12",
      "source": "Buffett historically raises cash before downturns",
      "detail": "Berkshire cash proxy: $393B | Elevated cash"
    },
    {
      "name": "Delinquency: Consumer",
      "signal": 30,
      "base_signal": 20,
      "momentum_boost": 10,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "lead_months": "6-18",
      "source": "Pre-2008: delinquencies rose 18mo before crash",
      "detail": "Consumer: 2.64% | +15% in 6mo"
    },
    {
      "name": "HY Spread Trend",
      "signal": 25.0,
      "base_signal": 25,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "lead_months": "3-9",
      "source": "Credit leads equity \u2014 2007-2008 pattern",
      "detail": "HY Spread: 2.83% | Dangerously tight (complacency)"
    },
    {
      "name": "Delinquency: Credit Card",
      "signal": 20.0,
      "base_signal": 20,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "lead_months": "6-18",
      "source": "Pre-2008: delinquencies rose 18mo before crash",
      "detail": "Credit Card: 2.92%"
    },
    {
      "name": "Credit Tightening (SLOOS)",
      "signal": 0.0,
      "base_signal": 0.0,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "lead_months": "6-12",
      "source": "Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, pre-recession pattern",
      "detail": "Net % tightening: 8.1%"
    },
    {
      "name": "Delinquency: All Loans",
      "signal": 0.0,
      "base_signal": 0.0,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "lead_months": "6-18",
      "source": "Pre-2008: delinquencies rose 18mo before crash",
      "detail": "All Loans: 1.48%"
    },
    {
      "name": "Initial Claims Trend",
      "signal": 0.0,
      "base_signal": 0.0,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "lead_months": "3-6",
      "source": "Sahm Rule analog \u2014 claims rise before recession",
      "detail": "Initial claims: 215,000"
    },
    {
      "name": "VIX Compression",
      "signal": 0.0,
      "base_signal": 0.0,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "lead_months": "3-6",
      "source": "Mandelbrot \u2014 quiet precedes storm; pre-2008 VIX was 12-16",
      "detail": "VIX: 17.9"
    },
    {
      "name": "Manufacturing Contraction",
      "signal": 0.0,
      "base_signal": 0.0,
      "momentum_boost": 0.0,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "lead_months": "6-12",
      "source": "ISM Manufacturing below 50 precedes recession",
      "detail": "Industrial Production: 102.6"
    }
  ],
  "causal": {
    "causal_analysis": {
      "active_nodes": {
        "rrp_depletion": {
          "score": 99.987148,
          "label": "Liquidit\u00e4tspuffer aufgebraucht (RRP)"
        },
        "shadow_credit_stress": {
          "score": 96.0,
          "label": "Shadow-Credit-Stress (Private Credit)"
        },
        "consumer_stress": {
          "score": 84.0,
          "label": "Konsumenten unter Druck"
        },
        "liquidity_fragility": {
          "score": 80.3750888,
          "label": "Systemische Liquidit\u00e4tsfragilit\u00e4t"
        },
        "qt_advanced": {
          "score": 76.4355,
          "label": "Quantitative Tightening fortgeschritten"
        },
        "housing_decline": {
          "score": 64.0,
          "label": "Housing-Abschwung"
        },
        "smart_money_exit": {
          "score": 57.771000000000015,
          "label": "Smart Money verl\u00e4sst den Markt"
        },
        "fiscal_deterioration": {
          "score": 45.19999999999999,
          "label": "Fiskalische Verschlechterung"
        },
        "redemption_gates": {
          "score": 45.0,
          "label": "Redemption Gates (R\u00fcckzahlungssperren)"
        },
        "contagion": {
          "score": 32.28,
          "label": "Systemische Ansteckung"
        },
        "yield_curve_inversion": {
          "score": 30,
          "label": "Yield-Curve Warnsignal"
        },
        "delinquency_rise": {
          "score": 28.500000000000004,
          "label": "Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle"
        },
        "bank_stress": {
          "score": 24.4,
          "label": "Bankenstress"
        },
        "dollar_weakness": {
          "score": 23.346000000000032,
          "label": "Dollar-Schw\u00e4che"
        },
        "credit_tightening": {
          "score": 16.2,
          "label": "Kreditklemme"
        },
        "volatility_spike": {
          "score": 14.350000000000005,
          "label": "Volatilit\u00e4ts-Spike"
        },
        "valuation_pressure": {
          "score": 11.676068713461717,
          "label": "\u00dcberbewertungsdruck"
        }
      },
      "cascade_probability": 0.561,
      "cascade_probability_pct": "56%"
    },
    "causal_chains": [
      {
        "name": "housing_decline \u2192 economic_slowdown",
        "labels": [
          "Housing-Abschwung",
          "Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung"
        ],
        "scores": [
          64.0,
          44.8
        ],
        "strength": 0.7,
        "lag_months": "6-12",
        "terminal_risk": "Rezession",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "shadow_credit_stress \u2192 bank_stress",
        "labels": [
          "Shadow-Credit-Stress (Private Credit)",
          "Bankenstress"
        ],
        "scores": [
          96.0,
          24.4
        ],
        "strength": 0.55,
        "lag_months": "3-12",
        "terminal_risk": "Bankenkrise",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "shadow_credit_stress \u2192 forced_selling",
        "labels": [
          "Shadow-Credit-Stress (Private Credit)",
          "Redemption Gates (R\u00fcckzahlungssperren)",
          "Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging"
        ],
        "scores": [
          96.0,
          45.0,
          40.3
        ],
        "strength": 0.42,
        "lag_months": "1-9",
        "terminal_risk": "Systemischer Crash / Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "contagion \u2192 forced_selling",
        "labels": [
          "Systemische Ansteckung",
          "Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging"
        ],
        "scores": [
          32.3,
          27.4
        ],
        "strength": 0.85,
        "lag_months": "0-1",
        "terminal_risk": "Systemischer Crash / Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "housing_decline \u2192 unemployment_rise",
        "labels": [
          "Housing-Abschwung",
          "Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung",
          "Arbeitslosigkeit steigt"
        ],
        "scores": [
          64.0,
          35.8,
          35.8
        ],
        "strength": 0.56,
        "lag_months": "9-21",
        "terminal_risk": "Massenarbeitslosigkeit",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "bank_stress \u2192 contagion",
        "labels": [
          "Bankenstress",
          "Systemische Ansteckung"
        ],
        "scores": [
          24.4,
          32.3
        ],
        "strength": 0.8,
        "lag_months": "0-3",
        "terminal_risk": "Systemische Ansteckung",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "shadow_credit_stress \u2192 contagion",
        "labels": [
          "Shadow-Credit-Stress (Private Credit)",
          "Bankenstress",
          "Systemische Ansteckung"
        ],
        "scores": [
          96.0,
          24.4,
          32.3
        ],
        "strength": 0.44,
        "lag_months": "3-15",
        "terminal_risk": "Systemische Ansteckung",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "consumer_stress \u2192 bank_stress",
        "labels": [
          "Konsumenten unter Druck",
          "Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle",
          "Bankenstress"
        ],
        "scores": [
          84.0,
          28.5,
          24.4
        ],
        "strength": 0.488,
        "lag_months": "2-12",
        "terminal_risk": "Bankenkrise",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "yield_curve_inversion \u2192 economic_slowdown",
        "labels": [
          "Yield-Curve Warnsignal",
          "Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung"
        ],
        "scores": [
          30,
          24.0
        ],
        "strength": 0.8,
        "lag_months": "12-18",
        "terminal_risk": "Rezession",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      },
      {
        "name": "redemption_gates \u2192 forced_selling",
        "labels": [
          "Redemption Gates (R\u00fcckzahlungssperren)",
          "Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging"
        ],
        "scores": [
          45.0,
          27.0
        ],
        "strength": 0.6,
        "lag_months": "1-6",
        "terminal_risk": "Systemischer Crash / Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe",
        "is_feedback_loop": false
      }
    ],
    "feedback_loops": [
      {
        "nodes": [
          "Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle",
          "Bankenstress",
          "Systemische Ansteckung",
          "Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging",
          "Konsumenten unter Druck",
          "Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle"
        ],
        "avg_activation": 32.9
      },
      {
        "nodes": [
          "Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle",
          "Kreditklemme",
          "Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle"
        ],
        "avg_activation": 24.4
      }
    ],
    "convergence_points": {
      "Konsumenten unter Druck": [
        "bank_stress",
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "liquidity_fragility",
        "qt_advanced",
        "redemption_gates",
        "rrp_depletion",
        "shadow_credit_stress",
        "smart_money_exit"
      ],
      "Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle": [
        "bank_stress",
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "liquidity_fragility",
        "redemption_gates",
        "rrp_depletion",
        "shadow_credit_stress",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Fiskalische Verschlechterung": [
        "consumer_stress",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Systemische Ansteckung": [
        "bank_stress",
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "redemption_gates",
        "shadow_credit_stress",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging": [
        "bank_stress",
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "liquidity_fragility",
        "qt_advanced",
        "redemption_gates",
        "rrp_depletion",
        "shadow_credit_stress",
        "smart_money_exit",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Bankenstress": [
        "bank_stress",
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "liquidity_fragility",
        "redemption_gates",
        "shadow_credit_stress",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Kreditklemme": [
        "bank_stress",
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "liquidity_fragility",
        "redemption_gates",
        "shadow_credit_stress",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Dollar-Schw\u00e4che": [
        "consumer_stress",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "fiscal_deterioration",
        "housing_decline",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung": [
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "redemption_gates",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Volatilit\u00e4ts-Spike": [
        "bank_stress",
        "consumer_stress",
        "contagion",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "liquidity_fragility",
        "qt_advanced",
        "redemption_gates",
        "rrp_depletion",
        "shadow_credit_stress",
        "smart_money_exit"
      ],
      "Arbeitslosigkeit steigt": [
        "consumer_stress",
        "delinquency_rise",
        "housing_decline",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Systemische Liquidit\u00e4tsfragilit\u00e4t": [
        "dollar_weakness",
        "qt_advanced",
        "rrp_depletion"
      ],
      "Inflationsdruck": [
        "dollar_weakness",
        "fiscal_deterioration",
        "housing_decline",
        "yield_curve_inversion"
      ],
      "Quantitative Tightening fortgeschritten": [
        "dollar_weakness",
        "fiscal_deterioration"
      ]
    },
    "narrative": "## Aktive Stressquellen\n- **Liquidit\u00e4tspuffer aufgebraucht (RRP)**: 100/100 [\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2591]\n- **Shadow-Credit-Stress (Private Credit)**: 96/100 [\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2591]\n- **Konsumenten unter Druck**: 84/100 [\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2591\u2591]\n- **Systemische Liquidit\u00e4tsfragilit\u00e4t**: 80/100 [\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2591\u2591]\n- **Quantitative Tightening fortgeschritten**: 76/100 [\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2588\u2591\u2591\u2591]\n\n## Kausale Dominoketten\n\n### Rezession\n**Kette:** Housing-Abschwung \u2192 Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung\n**St\u00e4rke:** 70% | **Zeitrahmen:** 6-12 Monate\n\n### Bankenkrise\n**Kette:** Shadow-Credit-Stress (Private Credit) \u2192 Bankenstress\n**St\u00e4rke:** 55% | **Zeitrahmen:** 3-12 Monate\n\n### Systemischer Crash / Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe\n**Kette:** Shadow-Credit-Stress (Private Credit) \u2192 Redemption Gates (R\u00fcckzahlungssperren) \u2192 Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging\n**St\u00e4rke:** 42% | **Zeitrahmen:** 1-9 Monate\n\n### Systemischer Crash / Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe\n**Kette:** Systemische Ansteckung \u2192 Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging\n**St\u00e4rke:** 85% | **Zeitrahmen:** 0-1 Monate\n\n## Aktive Feedback-Loops (selbstverst\u00e4rkend!)\n- **Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle \u2192 Bankenstress \u2192 Systemische Ansteckung \u2192 Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging \u2192 Konsumenten unter Druck \u2192 Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle** (Aktivierung: 33/100)\n- **Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle \u2192 Kreditklemme \u2192 Steigende Kreditausf\u00e4lle** (Aktivierung: 24/100)\n\n## Konvergenzpunkte (mehrere Ketten treffen sich)\n- **Systemische Ansteckung** \u2190 8 unabh\u00e4ngige Ketten: bank_stress, consumer_stress, contagion, delinquency_rise, housing_decline, redemption_gates, shadow_credit_stress, yield_curve_inversion\n- **Zwangsverk\u00e4ufe / Deleveraging** \u2190 12 unabh\u00e4ngige Ketten: bank_stress, consumer_stress, contagion, delinquency_rise, housing_decline, liquidity_fragility, qt_advanced, redemption_gates, rrp_depletion, shadow_credit_stress, smart_money_exit, yield_curve_inversion\n- **Bankenstress** \u2190 9 unabh\u00e4ngige Ketten: bank_stress, consumer_stress, contagion, delinquency_rise, housing_decline, liquidity_fragility, redemption_gates, shadow_credit_stress, yield_curve_inversion\n- **Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung** \u2190 6 unabh\u00e4ngige Ketten: consumer_stress, contagion, delinquency_rise, housing_decline, redemption_gates, yield_curve_inversion"
  },
  "fusion": {
    "composite_z": -0.44,
    "level": "GRUEN",
    "components": {
      "hy_oas": -1.01,
      "ig_oas": -0.81,
      "baa_spread": -1.02,
      "vix": -0.45,
      "nfci": -0.58,
      "stlfsi": -0.74,
      "dxy": 0.33,
      "curve_10y2y": -0.21,
      "curve_10y3m": -0.41,
      "hy_ig_quality": -1.07,
      "net_liq_yoy": 0.53,
      "m2_yoy": 0.1,
      "sahm": -0.36
    },
    "collected_at": "2026-08-13 01:37:14",
    "momentum_composite": -0.05,
    "breadth": 0.0,
    "regime": "STABIL"
  }
}