{ "timestamp": "2026-10-12T14:20:01.733255", "version": "2.11", "verdict": { "pressure_index": 78.0, "level": "HOHER STRUKTURDRUCK", "headline": "Strukturdruck im oberen Bereich der eigenen Historie, Ausgleichswege teils offen", "valve_room": 35.2, "psi": 42.4, "csd_hits": 1, "csd_total": 6, "n_contra": 7, "resilience_index": 40.5, "resilience_level": "EINGESCHR\u00c4NKT", "tension_central": 68.1, "tension_band": [ 46.4, 68.8 ], "tension_level": "HOCH", "dynamics_direction": "steigend", "costress_latest": 38.7, "costress_base_rate": 30.3, "disclaimer": "Dieses Instrument misst Druck, nicht Zeit. Es gibt keine kalibrierte Beziehung zwischen Strukturdruck und dem Zeitpunkt eines Bruchs \u2014 hohe Werte haben historisch sowohl Umbr\u00fcche als auch jahrzehntelange Fortdauer vorausgegangen. Wer aus diesen Zahlen ein Datum ableitet, tut das ohne Deckung durch die Daten." }, "pillars": { "turchin": { "label": "Strukturell-demographischer Druck", "short": "Turchin", "roman": "I", "question": "Verarmt die Mehrheit, w\u00e4hrend zu viele Eliten um zu wenige Posten k\u00e4mpfen und der Staat seine Zahlungsf\u00e4higkeit verliert?", "theory": "Peter Turchin, Structural-Demographic Theory (Secular Cycles 2009; Ages of Discord 2016). Krisenphasen entstehen aus dem Zusammentreffen von relativer Verelendung, Eliten\u00fcberproduktion und Staatsfinanzkrise.", "key": "turchin", "pressure": 77.7, "level": "HOCH", "n_indicators": 16, "keys": [ "wealth_top1", "labor_share", "public_debt_gdp", "relative_wage", "consumer_sentiment", "policy_uncertainty", "debt_gdp", "top1_income_share", "deficit_gdp", "tuition_real", "interest_burden", "housing_affordability", "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "elite_squeeze", "real_wage_prod", "life_expectancy" ], "top_driver": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil des obersten Prozents" }, "akkumulation": { "label": "Akkumulationsregime", "short": "Marx", "roman": "II", "question": "St\u00f6\u00dft die Kapitalverwertung an ihre eigenen Schranken \u2014 Profitrate, Absatz, Investitionsstau, Finanzialisierung?", "theory": "Marxsche Krisentheorie in ihren drei Varianten: tendenzieller Fall der Profitrate, \u00dcberproduktion/Unterkonsumtion und Profit Squeeze. Die Indikatoren sind so gew\u00e4hlt, dass sie zwischen ihnen unterscheiden k\u00f6nnen, statt sie zu vermengen.", "key": "akkumulation", "pressure": 72.7, "level": "ERHOEHT", "n_indicators": 9, "keys": [ "profit_share", "buffett_indicator", "prod_wage_gap", "total_debt_gdp", "net_investment", "capacity_utilization", "financial_profit_share", "inventory_sales", "profit_rate" ], "top_driver": "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)" }, "fiat": { "label": "Fiat- und Dollarordnung", "short": "Dollar", "roman": "III", "question": "Erodiert die monet\u00e4re Grundlage der US-Hegemonie?", "theory": "Erweiterung der Werttheorie um staatliches Kreditgeld: Seit 1971 ist der Weltgeldstandard eine Verbindlichkeit des US-Staates. Damit h\u00e4ngt die Hegemonie daran, dass Ausland und Zentralbanken diese Verbindlichkeit weiter halten \u2014 eine messbare, keine ideologische Frage.", "key": "fiat", "pressure": 74.3, "level": "ERHOEHT", "n_indicators": 10, "keys": [ "purchasing_power", "gold_real", "dollar_reserve_share", "niip_gdp", "current_account", "real_policy_rate", "fed_monetization", "dollar_yuan", "foreign_holdings", "dollar_index" ], "top_driver": "Kaufkraft des Dollars (1913 = 100)" }, "planetar": { "label": "Planetare Grenzen", "short": "Biosph\u00e4re", "roman": "IV", "question": "Zehrt das Wirtschaftsmodell die stofflichen Grundlagen auf, auf denen es beruht?", "theory": "Rockstr\u00f6m et al. 2009, Richardson et al. 2023, Planetary Health Check 2025. Die einzige Schranke im Set, die sich weder durch Geldpolitik noch durch Umverteilung verschieben l\u00e4sst.", "key": "planetar", "pressure": 87.3, "level": "HOCH", "n_indicators": 9, "keys": [ "material_footprint", "temp_anomaly", "overshoot_day", "living_planet", "co2", "food_price", "forest_share", "fertilizer", "renewable_share" ], "top_driver": "Materialfu\u00dfabdruck pro Kopf" } }, "components": { "relative_wage": { "label": "Relativlohn (Medianlohn \u00f7 BIP pro Kopf)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.4, "unit": "Index", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 13.24, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1979-01-01", "n": 189, "percentile": 1.1, "pressure": 98.9, "zscore": 1.39, "tau": -0.873, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -1.11, "change_30y": -3.12, "note": "Turchins zentrale Kennziffer f\u00fcr die Lage der Mehrheit. Nicht der Reallohn, sondern sein Verh\u00e4ltnis zum erwirtschafteten Wohlstand pro Kopf: Sie misst, ob die Mehrheit am Produktivit\u00e4tszuwachs beteiligt wird. Beide Gr\u00f6\u00dfen nominal, damit kein Deflatorunterschied das Verh\u00e4ltnis verzerrt.", "source": "BLS/BEA \u00fcber FRED (LES1252881500Q, A939RC0Q052SBEA)", "spark": [ [ "1979-01-01", 20.582 ], [ "1979-04-01", 20.7285 ], [ "1979-10-01", 20.5877 ], [ "1980-01-01", 20.6454 ], [ "1980-07-01", 21.2375 ], [ "1980-10-01", 20.6051 ], [ "1981-04-01", 20.2614 ], [ "1981-10-01", 20.5504 ], [ "1982-01-01", 20.8481 ], [ "1982-07-01", 20.9269 ], [ "1982-10-01", 20.9603 ], [ "1983-04-01", 20.3374 ], [ "1983-07-01", 20.0954 ], [ "1984-01-01", 19.3525 ], [ "1984-07-01", 18.9477 ], [ "1984-10-01", 19.0427 ], [ "1985-04-01", 19.2436 ], [ "1985-07-01", 18.7796 ], [ "1986-01-01", 18.7294 ], [ "1986-04-01", 18.9318 ], [ "1986-10-01", 18.9286 ], [ "1987-04-01", 18.7204 ], [ "1987-07-01", 18.7646 ], [ "1988-01-01", 18.3875 ], [ "1988-04-01", 18.0121 ], [ "1988-10-01", 17.766 ], [ "1989-01-01", 17.5745 ], [ "1989-07-01", 17.4401 ], [ "1990-01-01", 17.2947 ], [ "1990-04-01", 17.2616 ], [ "1990-10-01", 17.4645 ], [ "1991-01-01", 17.8056 ], [ "1991-07-01", 17.4742 ], [ "1991-10-01", 17.4918 ], [ "1992-04-01", 17.3582 ], [ "1992-10-01", 17.1261 ], [ "1993-01-01", 17.3217 ], [ "1993-07-01", 17.4641 ], [ "1993-10-01", 17.3404 ], [ "1994-04-01", 16.9492 ], [ "1994-10-01", 16.6862 ], [ "1995-01-01", 16.6878 ], [ "1995-07-01", 16.8196 ], [ "1995-10-01", 16.6081 ], [ "1996-04-01", 16.3572 ], [ "1996-07-01", 16.3776 ], [ "1997-01-01", 16.2129 ], [ "1997-07-01", 15.9056 ], [ "1997-10-01", 15.8929 ], [ "1998-04-01", 15.9218 ], [ "1998-07-01", 15.9187 ], [ "1999-01-01", 15.7497 ], [ "1999-04-01", 15.9831 ], [ "1999-10-01", 15.985 ], [ "2000-04-01", 15.7407 ], [ "2000-07-01", 15.8674 ], [ "2001-01-01", 15.8773 ], [ "2001-04-01", 15.963 ], [ "2001-10-01", 16.1949 ], [ "2002-01-01", 16.1513 ], [ "2002-07-01", 15.9584 ], [ "2003-01-01", 15.9392 ], [ "2003-04-01", 15.8816 ], [ "2003-10-01", 15.4353 ], [ "2004-01-01", 15.4163 ], [ "2004-07-01", 15.1512 ], [ "2004-10-01", 15.1782 ], [ "2005-04-01", 14.7994 ], [ "2005-10-01", 14.6711 ], [ "2006-01-01", 14.4937 ], [ "2006-07-01", 14.6244 ], [ "2006-10-01", 14.5491 ], [ "2007-04-01", 14.4973 ], [ "2007-07-01", 14.4765 ], [ "2008-01-01", 14.7141 ], [ "2008-07-01", 14.8163 ], [ "2008-10-01", 15.2095 ], [ "2009-04-01", 15.726 ], [ "2009-07-01", 15.795 ], [ "2010-01-01", 15.6495 ], [ "2010-07-01", 15.2803 ], [ "2010-10-01", 15.2266 ], [ "2011-04-01", 15.1184 ], [ "2011-07-01", 15.183 ], [ "2012-01-01", 14.9204 ], [ "2012-04-01", 14.9746 ], [ "2012-10-01", 14.8226 ], [ "2013-04-01", 14.7115 ], [ "2013-07-01", 14.5839 ], [ "2014-01-01", 14.6372 ], [ "2014-04-01", 14.2316 ], [ "2014-10-01", 14.2297 ], [ "2015-01-01", 14.2596 ], [ "2015-07-01", 14.1751 ], [ "2016-01-01", 14.3796 ], [ "2016-04-01", 14.3488 ], [ "2016-10-01", 14.4109 ], [ "2017-01-01", 14.5099 ], [ "2017-07-01", 14.3531 ], [ "2017-10-01", 13.9666 ], [ "2018-04-01", 14.0631 ], [ "2018-10-01", 14.1307 ], [ "2019-01-01", 14.0469 ], [ "2019-07-01", 14.0257 ], [ "2019-10-01", 14.1041 ], [ "2020-04-01", 16.7559 ], [ "2020-07-01", 15.2171 ], [ "2021-01-01", 14.391 ], [ "2021-07-01", 13.8881 ], [ "2021-10-01", 13.5264 ], [ "2022-04-01", 13.5292 ], [ "2022-07-01", 13.6085 ], [ "2023-01-01", 13.5297 ], [ "2023-04-01", 13.5467 ], [ "2023-10-01", 13.5366 ], [ "2024-04-01", 13.3803 ], [ "2024-07-01", 13.4278 ], [ "2025-01-01", 13.4869 ], [ "2025-04-01", 13.446 ], [ "2026-01-01", 13.2388 ], [ "2026-04-01", 13.2414 ] ], "key": "relative_wage", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "labor_share": { "label": "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "Index 2017=100", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": 93.4, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 0.3, "pressure": 99.7, "zscore": 2.69, "tau": -0.693, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -6.0, "change_30y": -13.6, "note": "Anteil der Wertsch\u00f6pfung, der an Arbeit geht. F\u00e4llt seit 1947 von 116 auf unter 95 \u2014 die l\u00e4ngste zusammenh\u00e4ngende Verteilungsverschiebung im Set.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (PRS85006173)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 115.996 ], [ "1947-07-01", 116.239 ], [ "1948-04-01", 114.747 ], [ "1948-10-01", 113.804 ], [ "1949-07-01", 112.159 ], [ "1950-04-01", 112.161 ], [ "1950-10-01", 111.037 ], [ "1951-07-01", 109.834 ], [ "1952-04-01", 112.321 ], [ "1952-10-01", 112.693 ], [ "1953-07-01", 113.504 ], [ "1954-04-01", 114.401 ], [ "1954-10-01", 112.749 ], [ "1955-07-01", 111.466 ], [ "1956-04-01", 114.78 ], [ "1956-10-01", 115.106 ], [ "1957-07-01", 114.313 ], [ "1958-04-01", 115.039 ], [ "1958-10-01", 112.982 ], [ "1959-07-01", 113.081 ], [ "1960-04-01", 115.916 ], [ "1960-10-01", 117.123 ], [ "1961-07-01", 113.77 ], [ "1962-01-01", 113.026 ], [ "1962-10-01", 112.89 ], [ "1963-07-01", 111.191 ], [ "1964-01-01", 110.518 ], [ "1964-10-01", 112.116 ], [ "1965-07-01", 109.183 ], [ "1966-01-01", 108.609 ], [ "1966-10-01", 109.866 ], [ "1967-07-01", 110.659 ], [ "1968-01-01", 110.125 ], [ "1968-10-01", 111.648 ], [ "1969-07-01", 113.187 ], [ "1970-01-01", 115.245 ], [ "1970-10-01", 113.699 ], [ "1971-07-01", 110.939 ], [ "1972-01-01", 112.234 ], [ "1972-10-01", 111.527 ], [ "1973-07-01", 113.108 ], [ "1974-01-01", 113.742 ], [ "1974-10-01", 112.602 ], [ "1975-04-01", 110.375 ], [ "1976-01-01", 108.64 ], [ "1976-10-01", 108.957 ], [ "1977-04-01", 108.779 ], [ "1978-01-01", 111.254 ], [ "1978-10-01", 108.758 ], [ "1979-04-01", 110.435 ], [ "1980-01-01", 111.222 ], [ "1980-10-01", 112.24 ], [ "1981-04-01", 111.008 ], [ "1982-01-01", 113.136 ], [ "1982-10-01", 112.145 ], [ "1983-04-01", 109.523 ], [ "1984-01-01", 108.616 ], [ "1984-10-01", 108.545 ], [ "1985-04-01", 108.403 ], [ "1986-01-01", 108.895 ], [ "1986-10-01", 111.226 ], [ "1987-04-01", 111.035 ], [ "1988-01-01", 111.922 ], [ "1988-07-01", 111.745 ], [ "1989-04-01", 109.476 ], [ "1990-01-01", 110.182 ], [ "1990-07-01", 110.63 ], [ "1991-04-01", 110.64 ], [ "1992-01-01", 111.299 ], [ "1992-07-01", 110.669 ], [ "1993-04-01", 109.978 ], [ "1994-01-01", 107.681 ], [ "1994-07-01", 107.897 ], [ "1995-04-01", 107.095 ], [ "1996-01-01", 107.51 ], [ "1996-07-01", 107.093 ], [ "1997-04-01", 106.938 ], [ "1998-01-01", 109.022 ], [ "1998-07-01", 109.706 ], [ "1999-04-01", 109.622 ], [ "2000-01-01", 112.828 ], [ "2000-07-01", 112.021 ], [ "2001-04-01", 111.694 ], [ "2001-10-01", 110.498 ], [ "2002-07-01", 108.494 ], [ "2003-04-01", 107.826 ], [ "2003-10-01", 106.88 ], [ "2004-07-01", 107.154 ], [ "2005-04-01", 104.688 ], [ "2005-10-01", 103.982 ], [ "2006-07-01", 103.934 ], [ "2007-04-01", 104.952 ], [ "2007-10-01", 104.334 ], [ "2008-07-01", 104.231 ], [ "2009-04-01", 102.951 ], [ "2009-10-01", 100.997 ], [ "2010-07-01", 99.616 ], [ "2011-04-01", 99.687 ], [ "2011-10-01", 97.84 ], [ "2012-07-01", 98.591 ], [ "2013-04-01", 99.71 ], [ "2013-10-01", 97.562 ], [ "2014-07-01", 97.572 ], [ "2015-01-01", 99.693 ], [ "2015-10-01", 100.174 ], [ "2016-07-01", 99.306 ], [ "2017-01-01", 99.721 ], [ "2017-10-01", 100.128 ], [ "2018-07-01", 99.866 ], [ "2019-01-01", 101.342 ], [ "2019-10-01", 99.588 ], [ "2020-07-01", 100.005 ], [ "2021-01-01", 100.601 ], [ "2021-10-01", 99.573 ], [ "2022-07-01", 98.166 ], [ "2023-01-01", 96.555 ], [ "2023-10-01", 96.224 ], [ "2024-07-01", 96.657 ], [ "2025-01-01", 97.871 ], [ "2025-10-01", 95.727 ], [ "2026-04-01", 93.446 ] ], "key": "labor_share", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "real_wage_prod": { "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "USD/h, heutige Preise", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 32.6, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "start": "1964-01-01", "n": 753, "percentile": 99.1, "pressure": 0.9, "zscore": -2.15, "tau": 0.224, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-08-01", "change_10y": 2.65, "change_30y": 6.9, "note": "Nominallohn der Produktions- und Nicht-Aufsichtskr\u00e4fte, mit dem Verbraucherpreisindex auf heutige Kaufkraft gebracht. Diese Gruppe ist rund vier F\u00fcnftel aller Besch\u00e4ftigten.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (AHETPI, deflationiert mit CPIAUCSL)", "spark": [ [ "1964-01-01", 26.9983 ], [ "1964-07-01", 27.3595 ], [ "1965-01-01", 27.5594 ], [ "1965-07-01", 27.8266 ], [ "1966-02-01", 28.0178 ], [ "1966-08-01", 28.1427 ], [ "1967-02-01", 28.4518 ], [ "1967-08-01", 28.7253 ], [ "1968-03-01", 28.932 ], [ "1968-09-01", 29.2246 ], [ "1969-03-01", 29.248 ], [ "1969-10-01", 29.382 ], [ "1970-04-01", 29.1605 ], [ "1970-10-01", 29.2577 ], [ "1971-04-01", 29.8301 ], [ "1971-11-01", 30.1533 ], [ "1972-05-01", 31.1641 ], [ "1972-11-01", 31.443 ], [ "1973-05-01", 31.2059 ], [ "1973-12-01", 30.6708 ], [ "1974-06-01", 30.2764 ], [ "1974-12-01", 29.6147 ], [ "1975-07-01", 29.3293 ], [ "1976-01-01", 29.3413 ], [ "1976-07-01", 29.6615 ], [ "1977-01-01", 29.9409 ], [ "1977-08-01", 29.9679 ], [ "1978-02-01", 30.1779 ], [ "1978-08-01", 30.016 ], [ "1979-02-01", 29.84 ], [ "1979-09-01", 28.967 ], [ "1980-03-01", 27.9068 ], [ "1980-09-01", 27.6783 ], [ "1981-04-01", 27.488 ], [ "1981-10-01", 27.1526 ], [ "1982-04-01", 27.3284 ], [ "1982-10-01", 27.112 ], [ "1983-05-01", 27.5187 ], [ "1983-11-01", 27.4642 ], [ "1984-05-01", 27.2793 ], [ "1984-12-01", 27.2689 ], [ "1985-06-01", 27.1656 ], [ "1985-12-01", 27.0661 ], [ "1986-06-01", 27.2436 ], [ "1987-01-01", 27.0544 ], [ "1987-07-01", 26.7775 ], [ "1988-01-01", 26.7593 ], [ "1988-07-01", 26.6459 ], [ "1989-02-01", 26.5986 ], [ "1989-08-01", 26.3816 ], [ "1990-02-01", 26.2867 ], [ "1990-09-01", 25.8983 ], [ "1991-03-01", 25.8034 ], [ "1991-09-01", 25.8037 ], [ "1992-03-01", 25.6543 ], [ "1992-10-01", 25.5845 ], [ "1993-04-01", 25.5362 ], [ "1993-10-01", 25.5417 ], [ "1994-04-01", 25.5819 ], [ "1994-11-01", 25.5394 ], [ "1995-05-01", 25.4607 ], [ "1995-11-01", 25.6087 ], [ "1996-06-01", 25.6515 ], [ "1996-12-01", 25.7056 ], [ "1997-06-01", 25.988 ], [ "1997-12-01", 26.3299 ], [ "1998-07-01", 26.6158 ], [ "1999-01-01", 26.9212 ], [ "1999-07-01", 27.0792 ], [ "2000-01-01", 27.1173 ], [ "2000-08-01", 27.2219 ], [ "2001-02-01", 27.2621 ], [ "2001-08-01", 27.4989 ], [ "2002-03-01", 27.7413 ], [ "2002-09-01", 27.8134 ], [ "2003-03-01", 27.7443 ], [ "2003-09-01", 27.8352 ], [ "2004-04-01", 27.7967 ], [ "2004-10-01", 27.6866 ], [ "2005-04-01", 27.6171 ], [ "2005-11-01", 27.4929 ], [ "2006-05-01", 27.6368 ], [ "2006-11-01", 28.0869 ], [ "2007-05-01", 28.0227 ], [ "2007-12-01", 27.9384 ], [ "2008-06-01", 27.7184 ], [ "2008-12-01", 29.0668 ], [ "2009-06-01", 28.8723 ], [ "2010-01-01", 29.0057 ], [ "2010-07-01", 29.2358 ], [ "2011-01-01", 29.2004 ], [ "2011-08-01", 28.772 ], [ "2012-02-01", 28.6529 ], [ "2012-08-01", 28.6874 ], [ "2013-02-01", 28.6742 ], [ "2013-09-01", 28.943 ], [ "2014-03-01", 29.0206 ], [ "2014-09-01", 29.0687 ], [ "2015-03-01", 29.6076 ], [ "2015-10-01", 29.7823 ], [ "2016-04-01", 30.0029 ], [ "2016-10-01", 30.0073 ], [ "2017-05-01", 30.085 ], [ "2017-11-01", 30.0237 ], [ "2018-05-01", 30.1101 ], [ "2018-11-01", 30.4244 ], [ "2019-06-01", 30.7406 ], [ "2019-12-01", 30.8125 ], [ "2020-06-01", 32.2117 ], [ "2020-12-01", 32.0813 ], [ "2021-07-01", 31.9135 ], [ "2022-01-01", 31.8234 ], [ "2022-07-01", 31.3383 ], [ "2023-02-01", 31.5011 ], [ "2023-08-01", 31.723 ], [ "2024-02-01", 31.8694 ], [ "2024-08-01", 32.2043 ], [ "2025-03-01", 32.4116 ], [ "2025-09-01", 32.5222 ], [ "2026-03-01", 32.4932 ], [ "2026-09-01", 32.6 ] ], "key": "real_wage_prod", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "housing_affordability": { "label": "Medianhaus in Jahresgeh\u00e4ltern", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "Jahresgeh\u00e4lter", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 6.13, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1963-01-01", "n": 254, "percentile": 71.7, "pressure": 71.7, "zscore": 0.62, "tau": 0.76, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2025-01-01", "change_10y": -0.73, "change_30y": 0.5, "note": "Preis des Medianhauses geteilt durch das Jahresbruttoeinkommen eines Produktionsarbeiters (Stundenlohn \u00d7 2080 Stunden). Beide Gr\u00f6\u00dfen nominal, das Verh\u00e4ltnis daher preisbereinigt. Turchin behandelt Wohnkosten als Kernkanal der relativen Verelendung.", "source": "Census/BLS \u00fcber FRED (MSPUS, AHETPI)", "spark": [ [ "1963-01-01", 3.4231 ], [ "1963-07-01", 3.4423 ], [ "1964-01-01", 3.5577 ], [ "1964-07-01", 3.5774 ], [ "1965-01-01", 3.7642 ], [ "1965-07-01", 3.6926 ], [ "1966-01-01", 3.7672 ], [ "1966-07-01", 3.7725 ], [ "1967-01-01", 3.829 ], [ "1967-10-01", 3.8096 ], [ "1968-04-01", 4.0037 ], [ "1968-10-01", 3.996 ], [ "1969-04-01", 3.9157 ], [ "1969-10-01", 3.6497 ], [ "1970-04-01", 3.4913 ], [ "1970-10-01", 3.1494 ], [ "1971-04-01", 3.4648 ], [ "1971-10-01", 3.3314 ], [ "1972-07-01", 3.4393 ], [ "1973-01-01", 3.6028 ], [ "1973-07-01", 3.8809 ], [ "1974-01-01", 3.9632 ], [ "1974-07-01", 3.911 ], [ "1975-01-01", 3.9734 ], [ "1975-07-01", 3.9354 ], [ "1976-01-01", 4.1994 ], [ "1976-10-01", 4.2393 ], [ "1977-04-01", 4.3861 ], [ "1977-10-01", 4.4699 ], [ "1978-04-01", 4.5918 ], [ "1978-10-01", 4.7119 ], [ "1979-04-01", 4.8851 ], [ "1979-10-01", 4.6588 ], [ "1980-04-01", 4.5788 ], [ "1980-10-01", 4.5474 ], [ "1981-07-01", 4.4657 ], [ "1982-01-01", 4.1351 ], [ "1982-07-01", 4.2174 ], [ "1983-01-01", 4.3723 ], [ "1983-07-01", 4.527 ], [ "1984-01-01", 4.4864 ], [ "1984-07-01", 4.5761 ], [ "1985-01-01", 4.6234 ], [ "1985-10-01", 4.7475 ], [ "1986-04-01", 4.9864 ], [ "1986-10-01", 5.0974 ], [ "1987-04-01", 5.4748 ], [ "1987-10-01", 5.8141 ], [ "1988-04-01", 5.6501 ], [ "1988-10-01", 5.728 ], [ "1989-04-01", 5.8629 ], [ "1989-10-01", 6.0484 ], [ "1990-07-01", 5.5039 ], [ "1991-01-01", 5.5634 ], [ "1991-07-01", 5.4737 ], [ "1992-01-01", 5.3996 ], [ "1992-07-01", 5.3518 ], [ "1993-01-01", 5.4983 ], [ "1993-07-01", 5.5256 ], [ "1994-01-01", 5.5804 ], [ "1994-10-01", 5.5571 ], [ "1995-04-01", 5.5688 ], [ "1995-10-01", 5.6465 ], [ "1996-04-01", 5.6237 ], [ "1996-10-01", 5.6973 ], [ "1997-04-01", 5.6575 ], [ "1997-10-01", 5.4761 ], [ "1998-04-01", 5.5631 ], [ "1998-10-01", 5.598 ], [ "1999-07-01", 5.6618 ], [ "2000-01-01", 5.7839 ], [ "2000-07-01", 5.7884 ], [ "2001-01-01", 5.7127 ], [ "2001-07-01", 5.6998 ], [ "2002-01-01", 6.1464 ], [ "2002-07-01", 5.7198 ], [ "2003-01-01", 5.8792 ], [ "2003-07-01", 5.9909 ], [ "2004-04-01", 6.7104 ], [ "2004-10-01", 6.9576 ], [ "2005-04-01", 7.0178 ], [ "2005-10-01", 7.1938 ], [ "2006-04-01", 7.1205 ], [ "2006-10-01", 6.9687 ], [ "2007-04-01", 6.7425 ], [ "2007-10-01", 6.5196 ], [ "2008-07-01", 6.0163 ], [ "2009-01-01", 5.4482 ], [ "2009-07-01", 5.5422 ], [ "2010-01-01", 5.676 ], [ "2010-07-01", 5.6586 ], [ "2011-01-01", 5.6434 ], [ "2011-07-01", 5.516 ], [ "2012-01-01", 5.8507 ], [ "2012-07-01", 6.0565 ], [ "2013-04-01", 6.4318 ], [ "2013-10-01", 6.4957 ], [ "2014-04-01", 6.7509 ], [ "2014-10-01", 6.9421 ], [ "2015-04-01", 6.6439 ], [ "2015-10-01", 6.8633 ], [ "2016-04-01", 6.8553 ], [ "2016-10-01", 6.8849 ], [ "2017-07-01", 6.9817 ], [ "2018-01-01", 7.1341 ], [ "2018-07-01", 7.0082 ], [ "2019-01-01", 6.5059 ], [ "2019-07-01", 6.5056 ], [ "2020-01-01", 6.6154 ], [ "2020-07-01", 6.3849 ], [ "2021-01-01", 6.7835 ], [ "2021-07-01", 7.3161 ], [ "2022-04-01", 7.7138 ], [ "2022-10-01", 7.6023 ], [ "2023-04-01", 7.0105 ], [ "2023-10-01", 6.9536 ], [ "2024-04-01", 6.676 ], [ "2024-10-01", 6.6137 ], [ "2025-04-01", 6.4345 ], [ "2025-10-01", 6.253 ], [ "2026-04-01", 6.1263 ] ], "key": "housing_affordability", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "life_expectancy": { "label": "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "Jahre", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 78.89, "as_of": "2024-12-31", "start": "1960-12-31", "n": 65, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 0.0, "zscore": -1.3, "tau": 0.898, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2022-12-31", "change_10y": 0.05, "change_30y": 3.27, "note": "Turchins h\u00e4rtester Verelendungsindikator: Wenn die biologische Wohlstandsmessung kippt, ist die Verschlechterung real und nicht wegdefinierbar. Die USA sind das einzige reiche Land mit einem mehrj\u00e4hrigen R\u00fcckgang vor der Pandemie.", "source": "Weltbank (SP.DYN.LE00.IN)", "spark": [ [ "1960-12-31", 69.7707 ], [ "1961-12-31", 70.2707 ], [ "1962-12-31", 70.1195 ], [ "1963-12-31", 69.9171 ], [ "1964-12-31", 70.1659 ], [ "1965-12-31", 70.2146 ], [ "1966-12-31", 70.2122 ], [ "1967-12-31", 70.561 ], [ "1968-12-31", 69.9512 ], [ "1969-12-31", 70.5073 ], [ "1970-12-31", 70.8073 ], [ "1971-12-31", 71.1073 ], [ "1972-12-31", 71.1561 ], [ "1973-12-31", 71.3561 ], [ "1974-12-31", 71.9561 ], [ "1975-12-31", 72.6049 ], [ "1976-12-31", 72.8561 ], [ "1977-12-31", 73.2561 ], [ "1978-12-31", 73.3561 ], [ "1979-12-31", 73.8049 ], [ "1980-12-31", 73.6098 ], [ "1981-12-31", 74.0098 ], [ "1982-12-31", 74.361 ], [ "1983-12-31", 74.4634 ], [ "1984-12-31", 74.5634 ], [ "1985-12-31", 74.5634 ], [ "1986-12-31", 74.6146 ], [ "1987-12-31", 74.7659 ], [ "1988-12-31", 74.7659 ], [ "1989-12-31", 75.0171 ], [ "1990-12-31", 75.2146 ], [ "1991-12-31", 75.3659 ], [ "1992-12-31", 75.6171 ], [ "1993-12-31", 75.4195 ], [ "1994-12-31", 75.6195 ], [ "1995-12-31", 75.622 ], [ "1996-12-31", 76.0268 ], [ "1997-12-31", 76.4293 ], [ "1998-12-31", 76.5805 ], [ "1999-12-31", 76.5829 ], [ "2000-12-31", 76.6366 ], [ "2001-12-31", 76.8366 ], [ "2002-12-31", 76.9366 ], [ "2003-12-31", 77.0366 ], [ "2004-12-31", 77.4878 ], [ "2005-12-31", 77.4878 ], [ "2006-12-31", 77.6878 ], [ "2007-12-31", 77.9878 ], [ "2008-12-31", 78.039 ], [ "2009-12-31", 78.3902 ], [ "2010-12-31", 78.5415 ], [ "2011-12-31", 78.6415 ], [ "2012-12-31", 78.7415 ], [ "2013-12-31", 78.7415 ], [ "2014-12-31", 78.8415 ], [ "2015-12-31", 78.6902 ], [ "2016-12-31", 78.539 ], [ "2017-12-31", 78.539 ], [ "2018-12-31", 78.639 ], [ "2019-12-31", 78.7878 ], [ "2020-12-31", 76.9805 ], [ "2021-12-31", 76.3293 ], [ "2022-12-31", 77.4341 ], [ "2023-12-31", 78.3854 ], [ "2024-12-31", 78.8902 ] ], "key": "life_expectancy", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "top1_income_share": { "label": "Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.4, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 20.73, "as_of": "2024-12-31", "start": "1913-12-31", "n": 112, "percentile": 91.1, "pressure": 91.1, "zscore": 1.3, "tau": -0.126, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2022-12-31", "change_10y": 1.76, "change_30y": 6.71, "note": "Vorsteuer-Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents seit 1913 \u2014 die Reihe, an der Piketty und Turchin ihre Zyklen ablesen. Das Vorkrisenmaximum von 1928 ist der historische Bezugspunkt.", "source": "World Inequality Database \u00fcber Our World in Data", "spark": [ [ "1913-12-31", 20.43 ], [ "1914-12-31", 20.91 ], [ "1915-12-31", 20.29 ], [ "1916-12-31", 21.36 ], [ "1917-12-31", 21.31 ], [ "1918-12-31", 19.68 ], [ "1919-12-31", 21.64 ], [ "1920-12-31", 18.77 ], [ "1921-12-31", 19.15 ], [ "1922-12-31", 18.58 ], [ "1923-12-31", 17.7 ], [ "1924-12-31", 18.47 ], [ "1925-12-31", 20.68 ], [ "1926-12-31", 21.94 ], [ "1927-12-31", 21.26 ], [ "1928-12-31", 22.29 ], [ "1929-12-31", 22.18 ], [ "1930-12-31", 19.06 ], [ "1931-12-31", 16.76 ], [ "1932-12-31", 16.51 ], [ "1933-12-31", 17.51 ], [ "1934-12-31", 19.06 ], [ "1935-12-31", 19.33 ], [ "1936-12-31", 20.94 ], [ "1937-12-31", 20.67 ], [ "1938-12-31", 18.64 ], [ "1939-12-31", 19.57 ], [ "1940-12-31", 20.48 ], [ "1941-12-31", 21.58 ], [ "1942-12-31", 20.59 ], [ "1943-12-31", 18.59 ], [ "1944-12-31", 15.35 ], [ "1945-12-31", 14.25 ], [ "1946-12-31", 14.28 ], [ "1947-12-31", 14.97 ], [ "1948-12-31", 16.31 ], [ "1949-12-31", 15.72 ], [ "1950-12-31", 16.39 ], [ "1951-12-31", 16.0 ], [ "1952-12-31", 14.97 ], [ "1953-12-31", 14.01 ], [ "1954-12-31", 13.95 ], [ "1955-12-31", 14.61 ], [ "1956-12-31", 13.84 ], [ "1957-12-31", 13.53 ], [ "1958-12-31", 12.68 ], [ "1959-12-31", 13.21 ], [ "1960-12-31", 12.43 ], [ "1961-12-31", 12.53 ], [ "1962-12-31", 12.84 ], [ "1963-12-31", 12.98 ], [ "1964-12-31", 13.11 ], [ "1965-12-31", 13.03 ], [ "1966-12-31", 12.97 ], [ "1967-12-31", 12.37 ], [ "1968-12-31", 12.61 ], [ "1969-12-31", 11.6 ], [ "1970-12-31", 10.7 ], [ "1971-12-31", 11.05 ], [ "1972-12-31", 11.08 ], [ "1973-12-31", 10.88 ], [ "1974-12-31", 10.37 ], [ "1975-12-31", 10.43 ], [ "1976-12-31", 10.36 ], [ "1977-12-31", 10.58 ], [ "1978-12-31", 10.35 ], [ "1979-12-31", 10.86 ], [ "1980-12-31", 10.42 ], [ "1981-12-31", 10.67 ], [ "1982-12-31", 10.99 ], [ "1983-12-31", 11.5 ], [ "1984-12-31", 12.15 ], [ "1985-12-31", 12.27 ], [ "1986-12-31", 11.98 ], [ "1987-12-31", 13.24 ], [ "1988-12-31", 15.21 ], [ "1989-12-31", 14.69 ], [ "1990-12-31", 14.71 ], [ "1991-12-31", 13.65 ], [ "1992-12-31", 14.68 ], [ "1993-12-31", 14.15 ], [ "1994-12-31", 14.02 ], [ "1995-12-31", 14.52 ], [ "1996-12-31", 15.25 ], [ "1997-12-31", 16.0 ], [ "1998-12-31", 16.32 ], [ "1999-12-31", 16.76 ], [ "2000-12-31", 17.34 ], [ "2001-12-31", 16.59 ], [ "2002-12-31", 16.1 ], [ "2003-12-31", 16.32 ], [ "2004-12-31", 17.06 ], [ "2005-12-31", 18.06 ], [ "2006-12-31", 18.52 ], [ "2007-12-31", 18.38 ], [ "2008-12-31", 17.93 ], [ "2009-12-31", 16.7 ], [ "2010-12-31", 17.89 ], [ "2011-12-31", 18.08 ], [ "2012-12-31", 19.49 ], [ "2013-12-31", 18.46 ], [ "2014-12-31", 18.97 ], [ "2015-12-31", 18.89 ], [ "2016-12-31", 18.66 ], [ "2017-12-31", 19.05 ], [ "2018-12-31", 19.24 ], [ "2019-12-31", 19.04 ], [ "2020-12-31", 18.17 ], [ "2021-12-31", 19.88 ], [ "2022-12-31", 20.73 ], [ "2023-12-31", 20.73 ], [ "2024-12-31", 20.73 ] ], "key": "top1_income_share", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "wealth_top1": { "label": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil des obersten Prozents", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 32.5, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1989-07-01", "n": 148, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 100.0, "zscore": 1.88, "tau": 0.762, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 1.9, "change_30y": 5.2, "note": "", "source": "Fed Distributional Financial Accounts \u00fcber FRED (WFRBST01134)", "spark": [ [ "1989-07-01", 22.8 ], [ "1989-10-01", 23.0 ], [ "1990-01-01", 22.8 ], [ "1990-04-01", 22.9 ], [ "1990-07-01", 22.4 ], [ "1991-01-01", 23.2 ], [ "1991-04-01", 23.1 ], [ "1991-07-01", 23.1 ], [ "1991-10-01", 23.6 ], [ "1992-04-01", 23.2 ], [ "1992-07-01", 23.0 ], [ "1992-10-01", 23.5 ], [ "1993-01-01", 24.0 ], [ "1993-07-01", 24.5 ], [ "1993-10-01", 25.0 ], [ "1994-01-01", 25.2 ], [ "1994-04-01", 25.4 ], [ "1994-07-01", 25.6 ], [ "1995-01-01", 26.4 ], [ "1995-04-01", 26.7 ], [ "1995-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "1995-10-01", 27.4 ], [ "1996-04-01", 27.3 ], [ "1996-07-01", 27.1 ], [ "1996-10-01", 27.1 ], [ "1997-01-01", 26.9 ], [ "1997-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "1997-10-01", 27.4 ], [ "1998-01-01", 27.8 ], [ "1998-04-01", 27.8 ], [ "1998-10-01", 27.7 ], [ "1999-01-01", 27.4 ], [ "1999-04-01", 27.5 ], [ "1999-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "1999-10-01", 27.9 ], [ "2000-04-01", 27.4 ], [ "2000-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "2000-10-01", 26.7 ], [ "2001-01-01", 26.0 ], [ "2001-07-01", 25.5 ], [ "2001-10-01", 25.7 ], [ "2002-01-01", 25.6 ], [ "2002-04-01", 25.4 ], [ "2002-10-01", 24.8 ], [ "2003-01-01", 24.7 ], [ "2003-04-01", 25.3 ], [ "2003-07-01", 25.5 ], [ "2003-10-01", 25.9 ], [ "2004-04-01", 26.5 ], [ "2004-07-01", 26.8 ], [ "2004-10-01", 27.1 ], [ "2005-01-01", 27.0 ], [ "2005-07-01", 27.2 ], [ "2005-10-01", 27.2 ], [ "2006-01-01", 27.9 ], [ "2006-04-01", 27.7 ], [ "2006-10-01", 28.2 ], [ "2007-01-01", 28.5 ], [ "2007-04-01", 28.7 ], [ "2007-07-01", 29.0 ], [ "2008-01-01", 28.9 ], [ "2008-04-01", 28.8 ], [ "2008-07-01", 28.4 ], [ "2008-10-01", 27.6 ], [ "2009-01-01", 27.2 ], [ "2009-07-01", 27.9 ], [ "2009-10-01", 27.9 ], [ "2010-01-01", 28.2 ], [ "2010-04-01", 28.0 ], [ "2010-10-01", 28.8 ], [ "2011-01-01", 29.1 ], [ "2011-04-01", 29.2 ], [ "2011-07-01", 28.8 ], [ "2012-01-01", 29.5 ], [ "2012-04-01", 29.5 ], [ "2012-07-01", 29.7 ], [ "2012-10-01", 29.3 ], [ "2013-01-01", 29.5 ], [ "2013-07-01", 29.4 ], [ "2013-10-01", 29.6 ], [ "2014-01-01", 29.9 ], [ "2014-04-01", 30.2 ], [ "2014-10-01", 30.4 ], [ "2015-01-01", 30.5 ], [ "2015-04-01", 30.6 ], [ "2015-07-01", 30.3 ], [ "2016-01-01", 30.4 ], [ "2016-04-01", 30.6 ], [ "2016-07-01", 30.7 ], [ "2016-10-01", 30.5 ], [ "2017-04-01", 30.6 ], [ "2017-07-01", 30.5 ], [ "2017-10-01", 30.6 ], [ "2018-01-01", 30.4 ], [ "2018-04-01", 30.3 ], [ "2018-10-01", 29.8 ], [ "2019-01-01", 30.4 ], [ "2019-04-01", 30.2 ], [ "2019-07-01", 30.1 ], [ "2020-01-01", 29.0 ], [ "2020-04-01", 29.6 ], [ "2020-07-01", 29.8 ], [ "2020-10-01", 30.4 ], [ "2021-04-01", 30.7 ], [ "2021-07-01", 30.7 ], [ "2021-10-01", 30.9 ], [ "2022-01-01", 30.4 ], [ "2022-04-01", 29.4 ], [ "2022-10-01", 29.7 ], [ "2023-01-01", 30.0 ], [ "2023-04-01", 30.0 ], [ "2023-07-01", 29.8 ], [ "2024-01-01", 30.4 ], [ "2024-04-01", 30.4 ], [ "2024-07-01", 30.7 ], [ "2024-10-01", 30.9 ], [ "2025-04-01", 31.1 ], [ "2025-07-01", 31.5 ], [ "2025-10-01", 31.8 ], [ "2026-01-01", 31.7 ], [ "2026-04-01", 32.5 ] ], "key": "wealth_top1", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "label": "Verm\u00f6gen oberstes Prozent \u00f7 untere H\u00e4lfte", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "-fach", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 14.1, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1989-07-01", "n": 148, "percentile": 64.9, "pressure": 64.9, "zscore": -0.24, "tau": 0.515, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2020-04-01", "change_10y": -11.29, "change_30y": 6.19, "note": "Wie oft das Verm\u00f6gen des obersten Prozents in das gesamte Verm\u00f6gen der unteren 160 Millionen Menschen passt.", "source": "Fed Distributional Financial Accounts \u00fcber FRED (WFRBLT01026, WFRBLB50107)", "spark": [ [ "1989-07-01", 6.4939 ], [ "1989-10-01", 6.7303 ], [ "1990-01-01", 6.4776 ], [ "1990-04-01", 6.802 ], [ "1990-07-01", 6.3434 ], [ "1991-01-01", 6.5497 ], [ "1991-04-01", 6.5189 ], [ "1991-07-01", 6.1952 ], [ "1991-10-01", 6.3364 ], [ "1992-04-01", 6.0019 ], [ "1992-07-01", 5.6422 ], [ "1992-10-01", 5.8471 ], [ "1993-01-01", 6.3611 ], [ "1993-07-01", 6.4855 ], [ "1993-10-01", 6.7535 ], [ "1994-01-01", 7.1289 ], [ "1994-04-01", 7.3672 ], [ "1994-07-01", 7.335 ], [ "1995-01-01", 7.5334 ], [ "1995-04-01", 7.4141 ], [ "1995-07-01", 7.4403 ], [ "1995-10-01", 7.7165 ], [ "1996-04-01", 7.9075 ], [ "1996-07-01", 7.8278 ], [ "1996-10-01", 8.0571 ], [ "1997-01-01", 7.9162 ], [ "1997-07-01", 8.129 ], [ "1997-10-01", 8.3821 ], [ "1998-01-01", 8.415 ], [ "1998-04-01", 8.6242 ], [ "1998-10-01", 8.5265 ], [ "1999-01-01", 8.2151 ], [ "1999-04-01", 8.6374 ], [ "1999-07-01", 8.4203 ], [ "1999-10-01", 8.7925 ], [ "2000-04-01", 8.5322 ], [ "2000-07-01", 8.4161 ], [ "2000-10-01", 8.4693 ], [ "2001-01-01", 8.1993 ], [ "2001-07-01", 8.1327 ], [ "2001-10-01", 8.7261 ], [ "2002-01-01", 8.7178 ], [ "2002-04-01", 8.7465 ], [ "2002-10-01", 8.5147 ], [ "2003-01-01", 8.7761 ], [ "2003-04-01", 9.5522 ], [ "2003-07-01", 9.5929 ], [ "2003-10-01", 10.0582 ], [ "2004-04-01", 10.3712 ], [ "2004-07-01", 10.7957 ], [ "2004-10-01", 10.9911 ], [ "2005-01-01", 10.9225 ], [ "2005-07-01", 10.9484 ], [ "2005-10-01", 10.7305 ], [ "2006-01-01", 11.571 ], [ "2006-04-01", 11.4915 ], [ "2006-10-01", 12.3088 ], [ "2007-01-01", 13.0942 ], [ "2007-04-01", 13.6769 ], [ "2007-07-01", 14.493 ], [ "2008-01-01", 19.3211 ], [ "2008-04-01", 19.1817 ], [ "2008-07-01", 23.277 ], [ "2008-10-01", 27.2239 ], [ "2009-01-01", 36.2363 ], [ "2009-07-01", 42.0915 ], [ "2009-10-01", 48.5358 ], [ "2010-01-01", 51.346 ], [ "2010-04-01", 53.6634 ], [ "2010-10-01", 72.1803 ], [ "2011-01-01", 71.888 ], [ "2011-04-01", 66.7124 ], [ "2011-07-01", 61.499 ], [ "2012-01-01", 65.6085 ], [ "2012-04-01", 52.1253 ], [ "2012-07-01", 49.723 ], [ "2012-10-01", 40.1406 ], [ "2013-01-01", 43.8056 ], [ "2013-07-01", 32.2544 ], [ "2013-10-01", 32.4926 ], [ "2014-01-01", 31.5948 ], [ "2014-04-01", 28.8722 ], [ "2014-10-01", 29.4244 ], [ "2015-01-01", 28.4397 ], [ "2015-04-01", 27.7611 ], [ "2015-07-01", 27.0091 ], [ "2016-01-01", 24.9104 ], [ "2016-04-01", 25.3915 ], [ "2016-07-01", 23.1551 ], [ "2016-10-01", 23.4706 ], [ "2017-04-01", 21.8493 ], [ "2017-07-01", 21.4203 ], [ "2017-10-01", 21.1627 ], [ "2018-01-01", 19.9659 ], [ "2018-04-01", 19.2253 ], [ "2018-10-01", 18.6288 ], [ "2019-01-01", 19.1108 ], [ "2019-04-01", 18.7945 ], [ "2019-07-01", 17.4995 ], [ "2020-01-01", 15.2929 ], [ "2020-04-01", 14.6026 ], [ "2020-07-01", 14.0588 ], [ "2020-10-01", 13.6989 ], [ "2021-04-01", 13.0653 ], [ "2021-07-01", 12.7253 ], [ "2021-10-01", 12.5909 ], [ "2022-01-01", 11.8788 ], [ "2022-04-01", 10.7515 ], [ "2022-10-01", 11.4586 ], [ "2023-01-01", 11.4774 ], [ "2023-04-01", 11.6445 ], [ "2023-07-01", 11.5869 ], [ "2024-01-01", 12.1647 ], [ "2024-04-01", 12.2666 ], [ "2024-07-01", 12.7234 ], [ "2024-10-01", 12.6474 ], [ "2025-04-01", 12.9008 ], [ "2025-07-01", 13.224 ], [ "2025-10-01", 13.2474 ], [ "2026-01-01", 13.2022 ], [ "2026-04-01", 14.0983 ] ], "key": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "tuition_real": { "label": "Reale Studiengeb\u00fchren", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "Index 1978=100", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 277.4, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1977-12-01", "n": 584, "percentile": 81.2, "pressure": 81.2, "zscore": 1.06, "tau": 0.884, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2024-11-01", "change_10y": -18.1, "change_30y": 106.6, "note": "Preis des Elite-Eintrittstickets, bereinigt um die allgemeine Inflation. Turchins Mechanismus der Eliten\u00fcberproduktion l\u00e4uft genau hier\u00fcber: Je teurer die Qualifikation, desto h\u00e4rter der Verdr\u00e4ngungswettbewerb um die Positionen, die sie rechtfertigen soll.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (CUUR0000SEEB \u00f7 CPIAUCSL)", "spark": [ [ "1977-12-01", 92.7769 ], [ "1978-04-01", 91.2363 ], [ "1978-09-01", 94.1353 ], [ "1979-02-01", 90.7514 ], [ "1979-07-01", 86.3014 ], [ "1979-12-01", 88.8166 ], [ "1980-05-01", 83.9657 ], [ "1980-10-01", 90.3188 ], [ "1981-02-01", 87.1591 ], [ "1981-07-01", 84.3716 ], [ "1981-12-01", 91.6047 ], [ "1982-05-01", 91.3452 ], [ "1982-10-01", 98.5729 ], [ "1983-03-01", 98.6748 ], [ "1983-08-01", 97.2028 ], [ "1984-01-01", 103.6239 ], [ "1984-05-01", 102.9952 ], [ "1984-10-01", 110.7517 ], [ "1985-03-01", 109.0824 ], [ "1985-08-01", 108.3411 ], [ "1986-01-01", 114.9227 ], [ "1986-06-01", 115.5393 ], [ "1986-11-01", 123.279 ], [ "1987-03-01", 121.7469 ], [ "1987-08-01", 120.8224 ], [ "1988-01-01", 126.4655 ], [ "1988-06-01", 125.339 ], [ "1988-11-01", 131.0058 ], [ "1989-04-01", 129.0008 ], [ "1989-09-01", 135.4968 ], [ "1990-02-01", 133.5938 ], [ "1990-06-01", 132.1786 ], [ "1990-11-01", 137.098 ], [ "1991-04-01", 137.6018 ], [ "1991-09-01", 146.4964 ], [ "1992-02-01", 145.8874 ], [ "1992-07-01", 145.7651 ], [ "1992-12-01", 153.5488 ], [ "1993-04-01", 153.1989 ], [ "1993-09-01", 160.6207 ], [ "1994-02-01", 160.0545 ], [ "1994-07-01", 159.5687 ], [ "1994-12-01", 165.0899 ], [ "1995-05-01", 163.8396 ], [ "1995-10-01", 170.2932 ], [ "1996-02-01", 169.3548 ], [ "1996-07-01", 168.2166 ], [ "1996-12-01", 172.4073 ], [ "1997-05-01", 172.5453 ], [ "1997-10-01", 178.452 ], [ "1998-03-01", 178.7037 ], [ "1998-08-01", 181.0282 ], [ "1999-01-01", 183.6066 ], [ "1999-05-01", 183.1928 ], [ "1999-10-01", 187.9239 ], [ "2000-03-01", 186.1404 ], [ "2000-08-01", 188.4192 ], [ "2001-01-01", 189.8064 ], [ "2001-06-01", 189.1953 ], [ "2001-11-01", 198.3099 ], [ "2002-04-01", 197.4902 ], [ "2002-08-01", 202.5485 ], [ "2003-01-01", 205.6407 ], [ "2003-06-01", 207.2092 ], [ "2003-11-01", 216.8649 ], [ "2004-04-01", 216.0619 ], [ "2004-09-01", 225.1844 ], [ "2005-02-01", 223.8046 ], [ "2005-06-01", 224.2643 ], [ "2005-11-01", 229.7325 ], [ "2006-04-01", 228.0518 ], [ "2006-09-01", 237.5247 ], [ "2007-02-01", 237.2171 ], [ "2007-07-01", 235.248 ], [ "2007-12-01", 241.205 ], [ "2008-04-01", 239.2644 ], [ "2008-09-01", 244.9239 ], [ "2009-02-01", 253.3452 ], [ "2009-07-01", 253.2576 ], [ "2009-12-01", 258.8534 ], [ "2010-05-01", 260.4736 ], [ "2010-10-01", 266.7546 ], [ "2011-03-01", 263.1359 ], [ "2011-07-01", 262.8892 ], [ "2011-12-01", 269.1774 ], [ "2012-05-01", 267.9992 ], [ "2012-10-01", 273.5501 ], [ "2013-03-01", 273.7961 ], [ "2013-08-01", 278.0498 ], [ "2014-01-01", 278.3733 ], [ "2014-05-01", 277.8155 ], [ "2014-10-01", 284.6595 ], [ "2015-03-01", 288.0712 ], [ "2015-08-01", 291.2529 ], [ "2016-01-01", 294.7528 ], [ "2016-06-01", 292.8366 ], [ "2016-11-01", 296.5975 ], [ "2017-04-01", 294.0473 ], [ "2017-08-01", 296.2726 ], [ "2018-01-01", 294.8188 ], [ "2018-06-01", 292.6236 ], [ "2018-11-01", 298.6445 ], [ "2019-04-01", 296.5557 ], [ "2019-09-01", 300.4551 ], [ "2020-02-01", 298.5319 ], [ "2020-06-01", 301.7569 ], [ "2020-11-01", 299.8735 ], [ "2021-04-01", 292.7881 ], [ "2021-09-01", 291.2365 ], [ "2022-02-01", 281.0682 ], [ "2022-07-01", 273.5193 ], [ "2022-12-01", 276.0518 ], [ "2023-05-01", 273.8236 ], [ "2023-09-01", 275.8592 ], [ "2024-02-01", 273.7535 ], [ "2024-07-01", 274.2628 ], [ "2024-12-01", 276.8139 ], [ "2025-05-01", 275.7754 ], [ "2025-11-01", 278.4949 ], [ "2026-04-01", 273.0391 ], [ "2026-08-01", 277.4376 ] ], "key": "tuition_real", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "elite_squeeze": { "label": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil der oberen Mittelschicht (90.\u201399. Perzentil)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 36.4, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1989-07-01", "n": 148, "percentile": 35.8, "pressure": 64.2, "zscore": 0.55, "tau": 0.35, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-01-01", "change_10y": -2.9, "change_30y": 2.2, "note": "Die eigentliche Eliten\u00fcberproduktion zeigt sich nicht oben, sondern eine Etage darunter: Wenn die Gruppe der Elitenanw\u00e4rter gegen\u00fcber dem obersten Prozent zur\u00fcckf\u00e4llt, w\u00e4chst genau die frustrierte Schicht, aus der Turchins Gegeneliten sich rekrutieren.", "source": "Fed Distributional Financial Accounts \u00fcber FRED (WFRBSN09161)", "spark": [ [ "1989-07-01", 38.0 ], [ "1989-10-01", 37.9 ], [ "1990-01-01", 37.7 ], [ "1990-04-01", 37.6 ], [ "1990-07-01", 37.4 ], [ "1991-01-01", 37.1 ], [ "1991-04-01", 37.0 ], [ "1991-07-01", 36.7 ], [ "1991-10-01", 36.5 ], [ "1992-04-01", 36.4 ], [ "1992-07-01", 36.3 ], [ "1992-10-01", 36.2 ], [ "1993-01-01", 36.2 ], [ "1993-07-01", 35.7 ], [ "1993-10-01", 35.5 ], [ "1994-01-01", 35.4 ], [ "1994-04-01", 35.2 ], [ "1994-07-01", 35.0 ], [ "1995-01-01", 34.7 ], [ "1995-04-01", 34.2 ], [ "1995-07-01", 33.9 ], [ "1995-10-01", 34.0 ], [ "1996-04-01", 34.2 ], [ "1996-07-01", 34.3 ], [ "1996-10-01", 34.5 ], [ "1997-01-01", 34.7 ], [ "1997-07-01", 34.9 ], [ "1997-10-01", 35.0 ], [ "1998-01-01", 35.1 ], [ "1998-04-01", 35.2 ], [ "1998-10-01", 35.5 ], [ "1999-01-01", 35.6 ], [ "1999-04-01", 35.7 ], [ "1999-07-01", 35.7 ], [ "1999-10-01", 35.9 ], [ "2000-04-01", 35.9 ], [ "2000-07-01", 35.9 ], [ "2000-10-01", 35.9 ], [ "2001-01-01", 35.7 ], [ "2001-07-01", 35.7 ], [ "2001-10-01", 36.0 ], [ "2002-01-01", 36.1 ], [ "2002-04-01", 36.2 ], [ "2002-10-01", 36.2 ], [ "2003-01-01", 36.3 ], [ "2003-04-01", 36.5 ], [ "2003-07-01", 36.6 ], [ "2003-10-01", 36.7 ], [ "2004-04-01", 36.5 ], [ "2004-07-01", 36.6 ], [ "2004-10-01", 36.6 ], [ "2005-01-01", 36.7 ], [ "2005-07-01", 37.0 ], [ "2005-10-01", 37.0 ], [ "2006-01-01", 37.2 ], [ "2006-04-01", 37.3 ], [ "2006-10-01", 37.5 ], [ "2007-01-01", 37.7 ], [ "2007-04-01", 37.8 ], [ "2007-07-01", 38.0 ], [ "2008-01-01", 38.2 ], [ "2008-04-01", 38.3 ], [ "2008-07-01", 38.5 ], [ "2008-10-01", 38.8 ], [ "2009-01-01", 39.1 ], [ "2009-07-01", 39.5 ], [ "2009-10-01", 39.7 ], [ "2010-01-01", 39.7 ], [ "2010-04-01", 39.9 ], [ "2010-10-01", 40.0 ], [ "2011-01-01", 40.0 ], [ "2011-04-01", 39.9 ], [ "2011-07-01", 39.7 ], [ "2012-01-01", 39.6 ], [ "2012-04-01", 39.5 ], [ "2012-07-01", 39.4 ], [ "2012-10-01", 39.5 ], [ "2013-01-01", 39.5 ], [ "2013-07-01", 39.3 ], [ "2013-10-01", 39.4 ], [ "2014-01-01", 39.4 ], [ "2014-04-01", 39.3 ], [ "2014-10-01", 39.4 ], [ "2015-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2015-04-01", 39.4 ], [ "2015-07-01", 39.4 ], [ "2016-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2016-04-01", 39.3 ], [ "2016-07-01", 39.2 ], [ "2016-10-01", 39.3 ], [ "2017-04-01", 39.3 ], [ "2017-07-01", 39.4 ], [ "2017-10-01", 39.4 ], [ "2018-01-01", 39.4 ], [ "2018-04-01", 39.5 ], [ "2018-10-01", 39.7 ], [ "2019-01-01", 39.8 ], [ "2019-04-01", 39.7 ], [ "2019-07-01", 39.8 ], [ "2020-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2020-04-01", 38.9 ], [ "2020-07-01", 38.6 ], [ "2020-10-01", 38.3 ], [ "2021-04-01", 37.6 ], [ "2021-07-01", 37.3 ], [ "2021-10-01", 37.2 ], [ "2022-01-01", 36.8 ], [ "2022-04-01", 36.5 ], [ "2022-10-01", 36.5 ], [ "2023-01-01", 36.5 ], [ "2023-04-01", 36.4 ], [ "2023-07-01", 36.4 ], [ "2024-01-01", 36.5 ], [ "2024-04-01", 36.4 ], [ "2024-07-01", 36.5 ], [ "2024-10-01", 36.5 ], [ "2025-04-01", 36.4 ], [ "2025-07-01", 36.5 ], [ "2025-10-01", 36.5 ], [ "2026-01-01", 36.4 ], [ "2026-04-01", 36.4 ] ], "key": "elite_squeeze", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "debt_gdp": { "label": "Staatsschulden \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 122.6, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1966-01-01", "n": 241, "percentile": 98.3, "pressure": 98.3, "zscore": 1.99, "tau": 0.756, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2021-01-01", "change_10y": 18.6, "change_30y": 57.6, "note": "Bruttoschuld des Bundes, also einschlie\u00dflich der Best\u00e4nde, die Bundesbeh\u00f6rden selbst halten (vor allem die Sozialversicherungs-Treuhandfonds). Das ist das weitere der beiden g\u00e4ngigen Ma\u00dfe; das engere steht als Begleitkachel daneben.", "source": "OMB/BEA \u00fcber FRED (GFDEGDQ188S)", "spark": [ [ "1966-01-01", 40.34 ], [ "1966-07-01", 39.6209 ], [ "1967-01-01", 39.2038 ], [ "1967-07-01", 38.8214 ], [ "1968-01-01", 38.4295 ], [ "1968-07-01", 37.309 ], [ "1969-01-01", 36.1958 ], [ "1969-07-01", 35.0195 ], [ "1970-01-01", 35.3888 ], [ "1970-07-01", 34.8672 ], [ "1971-01-01", 34.5035 ], [ "1971-07-01", 35.0069 ], [ "1972-01-01", 34.7262 ], [ "1972-07-01", 33.6245 ], [ "1973-01-01", 33.2929 ], [ "1973-07-01", 32.1245 ], [ "1974-01-01", 31.7645 ], [ "1974-07-01", 30.8627 ], [ "1975-01-01", 31.536 ], [ "1975-07-01", 32.3804 ], [ "1976-01-01", 32.9851 ], [ "1976-07-01", 33.6433 ], [ "1977-01-01", 33.6514 ], [ "1977-07-01", 32.9879 ], [ "1978-01-01", 33.5012 ], [ "1978-07-01", 32.2141 ], [ "1979-01-01", 31.536 ], [ "1979-07-01", 30.984 ], [ "1980-01-01", 30.9498 ], [ "1980-07-01", 31.7769 ], [ "1981-01-01", 30.8728 ], [ "1981-07-01", 30.6033 ], [ "1982-01-01", 32.413 ], [ "1982-07-01", 33.9253 ], [ "1983-01-01", 35.8291 ], [ "1983-07-01", 37.3311 ], [ "1984-01-01", 37.4545 ], [ "1984-07-01", 38.4959 ], [ "1985-01-01", 40.4412 ], [ "1985-07-01", 41.5591 ], [ "1986-01-01", 44.0742 ], [ "1986-07-01", 46.1254 ], [ "1987-01-01", 47.5784 ], [ "1987-07-01", 48.1165 ], [ "1988-01-01", 49.0315 ], [ "1988-07-01", 49.2573 ], [ "1989-01-01", 49.7328 ], [ "1989-07-01", 50.1712 ], [ "1990-01-01", 51.9686 ], [ "1990-07-01", 53.7531 ], [ "1991-01-01", 57.4165 ], [ "1991-07-01", 59.0612 ], [ "1992-01-01", 60.9968 ], [ "1992-07-01", 61.898 ], [ "1993-01-01", 62.8666 ], [ "1993-07-01", 64.1009 ], [ "1994-01-01", 64.3071 ], [ "1994-07-01", 64.0118 ], [ "1995-01-01", 64.6627 ], [ "1995-07-01", 64.7391 ], [ "1996-01-01", 65.0417 ], [ "1996-07-01", 64.2547 ], [ "1997-01-01", 64.3443 ], [ "1997-07-01", 62.4871 ], [ "1998-01-01", 62.5099 ], [ "1998-07-01", 60.5869 ], [ "1999-01-01", 60.0489 ], [ "1999-07-01", 58.3926 ], [ "2000-01-01", 57.7213 ], [ "2000-07-01", 54.9921 ], [ "2001-01-01", 55.1443 ], [ "2001-07-01", 54.7976 ], [ "2002-01-01", 55.6965 ], [ "2002-07-01", 56.7026 ], [ "2003-01-01", 57.8191 ], [ "2003-07-01", 58.6454 ], [ "2004-01-01", 59.8071 ], [ "2004-07-01", 59.9664 ], [ "2005-01-01", 60.913 ], [ "2005-07-01", 60.3586 ], [ "2006-01-01", 61.5564 ], [ "2006-07-01", 61.3328 ], [ "2007-01-01", 62.253 ], [ "2007-07-01", 61.8483 ], [ "2008-01-01", 64.1728 ], [ "2008-07-01", 67.2845 ], [ "2009-01-01", 77.105 ], [ "2009-07-01", 82.4273 ], [ "2010-01-01", 86.5118 ], [ "2010-07-01", 89.5653 ], [ "2011-01-01", 92.9561 ], [ "2011-07-01", 94.521 ], [ "2012-01-01", 97.1231 ], [ "2012-07-01", 98.4479 ], [ "2013-01-01", 100.74 ], [ "2013-07-01", 98.728 ], [ "2014-01-01", 102.3462 ], [ "2014-07-01", 100.1115 ], [ "2015-01-01", 100.4901 ], [ "2015-07-01", 98.6359 ], [ "2016-01-01", 103.989 ], [ "2016-07-01", 103.6035 ], [ "2017-01-01", 102.9374 ], [ "2017-07-01", 102.8046 ], [ "2018-01-01", 103.7439 ], [ "2018-07-01", 103.4489 ], [ "2019-01-01", 104.3402 ], [ "2019-07-01", 104.6149 ], [ "2020-01-01", 106.7701 ], [ "2020-07-01", 124.1469 ], [ "2021-01-01", 124.0375 ], [ "2021-07-01", 118.5409 ], [ "2022-01-01", 120.3982 ], [ "2022-07-01", 117.4383 ], [ "2023-01-01", 115.5861 ], [ "2023-07-01", 118.139 ], [ "2024-01-01", 120.4763 ], [ "2024-07-01", 120.1717 ], [ "2025-01-01", 120.5452 ], [ "2025-07-01", 121.0288 ], [ "2026-01-01", 122.5939 ] ], "key": "debt_gdp", "group": "sfd", "group_label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise" }, "public_debt_gdp": { "label": "\u00d6ffentlich gehaltene Staatsschuld \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 0.0, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 98.71, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1970-01-01", "n": 225, "percentile": 99.6, "pressure": 99.6, "zscore": 2.23, "tau": 0.715, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2020-04-01", "change_10y": 23.52, "change_30y": 50.87, "note": "Das engere Schuldenma\u00df: nur die Schuld, die wirklich am Markt liegt \u2014 ohne die Best\u00e4nde, die der Bund sich selbst schuldet. Es ist die Reihe, auf die sich die verbreiteten \u201eSchulden \u00fcber 100 % des BIP\"-Posts berufen, und die hier ausdr\u00fccklich NEBEN die Bruttoquote gestellt wird, damit beide Linien im Haus sind. GEWICHT NULL, absichtlich: Sie beschreibt denselben Sachverhalt wie die Bruttoquote dar\u00fcber und korreliert nahezu vollst\u00e4ndig mit ihr \u2014 gewichtet w\u00e4re sie eine Doppelz\u00e4hlung in der Kopfzahl. Sie steht zum Nachlesen da, nicht zum Mitrechnen. Beim Perzentil ist der Reihenbeginn 1970 mitzulesen: Der Nachkriegsgipfel von 1946 liegt davor und fehlt der Bezugsmenge. Innerhalb der Reihe ist der h\u00f6chste Stand nicht heute, sondern das zweite Quartal 2020 (103,0 %) \u2014 das einzige Quartal seit 1970 \u00fcber dem heutigen Wert und zugleich das einzige \u00fcber 100 %.", "source": "OMB/BEA \u00fcber FRED (FYGFGDQ188S, ab 1970)", "spark": [ [ "1970-01-01", 26.7137 ], [ "1970-04-01", 25.757 ], [ "1970-10-01", 26.7536 ], [ "1971-04-01", 25.4626 ], [ "1971-10-01", 26.6419 ], [ "1972-04-01", 24.8724 ], [ "1972-10-01", 24.9511 ], [ "1973-04-01", 23.618 ], [ "1973-10-01", 22.9922 ], [ "1974-01-01", 22.9652 ], [ "1974-07-01", 21.851 ], [ "1975-01-01", 22.9687 ], [ "1975-07-01", 24.0599 ], [ "1976-01-01", 25.3461 ], [ "1976-07-01", 25.8846 ], [ "1977-01-01", 26.3625 ], [ "1977-07-01", 25.6482 ], [ "1977-10-01", 26.0639 ], [ "1978-04-01", 25.2158 ], [ "1978-10-01", 24.9988 ], [ "1979-04-01", 24.1732 ], [ "1979-10-01", 24.1555 ], [ "1980-04-01", 24.4056 ], [ "1980-10-01", 24.7105 ], [ "1981-04-01", 24.3873 ], [ "1981-07-01", 24.2224 ], [ "1982-01-01", 26.2312 ], [ "1982-07-01", 27.4968 ], [ "1983-01-01", 30.0379 ], [ "1983-07-01", 30.8521 ], [ "1984-01-01", 31.3173 ], [ "1984-07-01", 32.0544 ], [ "1985-01-01", 33.4557 ], [ "1985-04-01", 34.0052 ], [ "1985-10-01", 35.9372 ], [ "1986-04-01", 37.0696 ], [ "1986-10-01", 38.8984 ], [ "1987-04-01", 38.9323 ], [ "1987-10-01", 39.0189 ], [ "1988-04-01", 38.7938 ], [ "1988-10-01", 38.8031 ], [ "1989-01-01", 38.7102 ], [ "1989-07-01", 38.2895 ], [ "1990-01-01", 39.6626 ], [ "1990-07-01", 40.5238 ], [ "1991-01-01", 43.0534 ], [ "1991-07-01", 44.2436 ], [ "1992-01-01", 45.8523 ], [ "1992-07-01", 46.4209 ], [ "1992-10-01", 46.8403 ], [ "1993-04-01", 47.7649 ], [ "1993-10-01", 48.2225 ], [ "1994-04-01", 47.508 ], [ "1994-10-01", 47.5249 ], [ "1995-04-01", 47.9463 ], [ "1995-10-01", 47.4 ], [ "1996-04-01", 46.5419 ], [ "1996-07-01", 46.4595 ], [ "1997-01-01", 46.3263 ], [ "1997-07-01", 44.0547 ], [ "1998-01-01", 43.6706 ], [ "1998-07-01", 41.2487 ], [ "1999-01-01", 40.3174 ], [ "1999-07-01", 37.8625 ], [ "2000-01-01", 36.8717 ], [ "2000-04-01", 34.1121 ], [ "2000-10-01", 32.7101 ], [ "2001-04-01", 30.8914 ], [ "2001-10-01", 31.835 ], [ "2002-04-01", 31.8122 ], [ "2002-10-01", 32.9739 ], [ "2003-04-01", 33.7343 ], [ "2003-10-01", 34.3525 ], [ "2004-01-01", 35.029 ], [ "2004-07-01", 34.9716 ], [ "2005-01-01", 35.8134 ], [ "2005-07-01", 35.0111 ], [ "2006-01-01", 35.8317 ], [ "2006-07-01", 34.9181 ], [ "2007-01-01", 35.5543 ], [ "2007-07-01", 34.6691 ], [ "2007-10-01", 34.905 ], [ "2008-04-01", 35.5518 ], [ "2008-10-01", 43.6238 ], [ "2009-04-01", 49.9016 ], [ "2009-10-01", 53.3358 ], [ "2010-04-01", 57.6709 ], [ "2010-10-01", 61.3699 ], [ "2011-04-01", 62.6505 ], [ "2011-07-01", 64.7511 ], [ "2012-01-01", 67.6864 ], [ "2012-07-01", 69.0853 ], [ "2013-01-01", 71.6141 ], [ "2013-07-01", 70.6682 ], [ "2014-01-01", 73.5166 ], [ "2014-07-01", 71.8077 ], [ "2015-01-01", 72.4675 ], [ "2015-04-01", 71.5273 ], [ "2015-10-01", 74.3139 ], [ "2016-04-01", 74.4844 ], [ "2016-10-01", 75.6406 ], [ "2017-04-01", 73.9295 ], [ "2017-10-01", 73.9783 ], [ "2018-04-01", 75.2326 ], [ "2018-10-01", 77.0669 ], [ "2019-01-01", 76.848 ], [ "2019-07-01", 77.4778 ], [ "2020-01-01", 79.2083 ], [ "2020-07-01", 96.9278 ], [ "2021-01-01", 97.0291 ], [ "2021-07-01", 93.0095 ], [ "2022-01-01", 94.6651 ], [ "2022-07-01", 92.3448 ], [ "2022-10-01", 91.6652 ], [ "2023-04-01", 92.5609 ], [ "2023-10-01", 94.8478 ], [ "2024-04-01", 94.8093 ], [ "2024-10-01", 96.7609 ], [ "2025-04-01", 95.0483 ], [ "2025-10-01", 98.2439 ], [ "2026-01-01", 98.7105 ] ], "key": "public_debt_gdp", "group": "sfd", "group_label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise" }, "interest_burden": { "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 21.1, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 76.7, "pressure": 76.7, "zscore": 0.75, "tau": 0.183, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-01-01", "change_10y": 8.0, "change_30y": -2.2, "note": "Der aussagekr\u00e4ftigste Fiskalindikator im Set und Turchins direktes Ma\u00df f\u00fcr Staatsfinanzkrise: Nicht die Schuldenh\u00f6he entscheidet, sondern welcher Anteil der laufenden Einnahmen f\u00fcr Zinsen gebunden ist, bevor der Staat irgendetwas tun kann.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (A091RC1Q027SBEA \u00f7 FGRECPT)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 12.3315 ], [ "1947-07-01", 12.8663 ], [ "1948-04-01", 12.9709 ], [ "1948-10-01", 13.7271 ], [ "1949-07-01", 15.7619 ], [ "1950-04-01", 13.4663 ], [ "1950-10-01", 11.2008 ], [ "1951-07-01", 10.7616 ], [ "1952-04-01", 10.4245 ], [ "1952-10-01", 10.19 ], [ "1953-07-01", 10.4697 ], [ "1954-04-01", 12.3377 ], [ "1954-10-01", 12.0465 ], [ "1955-07-01", 11.0717 ], [ "1956-04-01", 11.4435 ], [ "1956-10-01", 12.1606 ], [ "1957-07-01", 12.4972 ], [ "1958-04-01", 13.3849 ], [ "1958-10-01", 12.9368 ], [ "1959-07-01", 13.3019 ], [ "1960-04-01", 14.8795 ], [ "1960-10-01", 14.979 ], [ "1961-07-01", 14.6214 ], [ "1962-01-01", 14.4383 ], [ "1962-10-01", 14.7831 ], [ "1963-07-01", 14.6356 ], [ "1964-01-01", 15.2224 ], [ "1964-10-01", 15.8129 ], [ "1965-07-01", 15.6581 ], [ "1966-01-01", 14.7316 ], [ "1966-10-01", 14.8991 ], [ "1967-07-01", 14.8812 ], [ "1968-01-01", 14.6641 ], [ "1968-10-01", 14.0228 ], [ "1969-07-01", 14.5588 ], [ "1970-01-01", 16.9117 ], [ "1970-10-01", 18.9456 ], [ "1971-07-01", 18.5549 ], [ "1972-01-01", 17.1421 ], [ "1972-10-01", 17.138 ], [ "1973-07-01", 17.7089 ], [ "1974-01-01", 17.3659 ], [ "1974-10-01", 17.4243 ], [ "1975-04-01", 21.026 ], [ "1976-01-01", 18.2241 ], [ "1976-10-01", 18.3952 ], [ "1977-04-01", 17.6529 ], [ "1978-01-01", 19.1243 ], [ "1978-10-01", 18.456 ], [ "1979-04-01", 18.717 ], [ "1980-01-01", 19.7514 ], [ "1980-10-01", 19.8902 ], [ "1981-04-01", 20.9954 ], [ "1982-01-01", 23.7959 ], [ "1982-10-01", 25.408 ], [ "1983-04-01", 25.1251 ], [ "1984-01-01", 26.3908 ], [ "1984-10-01", 28.1033 ], [ "1985-04-01", 28.599 ], [ "1986-01-01", 27.788 ], [ "1986-10-01", 26.6408 ], [ "1987-04-01", 24.9844 ], [ "1988-01-01", 25.9335 ], [ "1988-07-01", 25.7186 ], [ "1989-04-01", 26.0735 ], [ "1990-01-01", 26.3798 ], [ "1990-07-01", 26.7167 ], [ "1991-04-01", 27.6235 ], [ "1992-01-01", 27.0523 ], [ "1992-07-01", 26.649 ], [ "1993-04-01", 25.4805 ], [ "1994-01-01", 24.0863 ], [ "1994-07-01", 24.1799 ], [ "1995-04-01", 24.8545 ], [ "1996-01-01", 24.3239 ], [ "1996-07-01", 23.3855 ], [ "1997-04-01", 22.0828 ], [ "1998-01-01", 21.1169 ], [ "1998-07-01", 20.2496 ], [ "1999-04-01", 18.6794 ], [ "2000-01-01", 17.3782 ], [ "2000-07-01", 16.9957 ], [ "2001-04-01", 15.9542 ], [ "2001-10-01", 15.7933 ], [ "2002-07-01", 16.0548 ], [ "2003-04-01", 15.1789 ], [ "2003-10-01", 15.1462 ], [ "2004-07-01", 14.9388 ], [ "2005-04-01", 15.1224 ], [ "2005-10-01", 14.8823 ], [ "2006-07-01", 14.6828 ], [ "2007-04-01", 15.2536 ], [ "2007-10-01", 15.4823 ], [ "2008-07-01", 14.8433 ], [ "2009-04-01", 15.8346 ], [ "2009-10-01", 15.4066 ], [ "2010-07-01", 15.6746 ], [ "2011-04-01", 16.5045 ], [ "2011-10-01", 16.7495 ], [ "2012-07-01", 15.6464 ], [ "2013-04-01", 12.7131 ], [ "2013-10-01", 13.0944 ], [ "2014-07-01", 13.3822 ], [ "2015-01-01", 12.64 ], [ "2015-10-01", 12.3843 ], [ "2016-07-01", 13.1897 ], [ "2017-01-01", 13.2293 ], [ "2017-10-01", 13.8885 ], [ "2018-07-01", 15.1935 ], [ "2019-01-01", 15.8724 ], [ "2019-10-01", 14.9394 ], [ "2020-07-01", 13.3772 ], [ "2021-01-01", 12.8645 ], [ "2021-10-01", 13.044 ], [ "2022-07-01", 14.5877 ], [ "2023-01-01", 18.1135 ], [ "2023-10-01", 20.8086 ], [ "2024-07-01", 22.0427 ], [ "2025-01-01", 21.6392 ], [ "2025-10-01", 21.377 ], [ "2026-04-01", 21.1317 ] ], "key": "interest_burden", "group": "sfd", "group_label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise" }, "deficit_gdp": { "label": "Haushaltssaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": -5.77, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "start": "1929-01-01", "n": 97, "percentile": 14.4, "pressure": 85.6, "zscore": 0.52, "tau": -0.23, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-01-01", "change_10y": -3.35, "change_30y": -3.62, "note": "Negative Werte sind Defizite. Bemerkenswert ist weniger die H\u00f6he als der Umstand, dass sie bei Vollbesch\u00e4ftigung auftritt \u2014 antizyklische Haushaltspolitik hat damit ihren Spielraum bereits im Aufschwung verbraucht.", "source": "OMB \u00fcber FRED (FYFSGDA188S, ab 1929)", "spark": [ [ "1929-01-01", 0.702 ], [ "1930-01-01", 0.8008 ], [ "1931-01-01", -0.597 ], [ "1932-01-01", -4.5949 ], [ "1933-01-01", -4.5526 ], [ "1934-01-01", -5.3683 ], [ "1935-01-01", -3.7755 ], [ "1936-01-01", -5.0737 ], [ "1937-01-01", -2.358 ], [ "1938-01-01", -0.1019 ], [ "1939-01-01", -3.0459 ], [ "1940-01-01", -2.8377 ], [ "1941-01-01", -3.8211 ], [ "1942-01-01", -12.3548 ], [ "1943-01-01", -26.8628 ], [ "1944-01-01", -21.1885 ], [ "1945-01-01", -20.8559 ], [ "1946-01-01", -7.0038 ], [ "1947-01-01", 1.6097 ], [ "1948-01-01", 4.2978 ], [ "1949-01-01", 0.2129 ], [ "1950-01-01", -1.0403 ], [ "1951-01-01", 1.7589 ], [ "1952-01-01", -0.4135 ], [ "1953-01-01", -1.6682 ], [ "1954-01-01", -0.2955 ], [ "1955-01-01", -0.7034 ], [ "1956-01-01", 0.8784 ], [ "1957-01-01", 0.7198 ], [ "1958-01-01", -0.5754 ], [ "1959-01-01", -2.4631 ], [ "1960-01-01", 0.0555 ], [ "1961-01-01", -0.5932 ], [ "1962-01-01", -1.1833 ], [ "1963-01-01", -0.7461 ], [ "1964-01-01", -0.8642 ], [ "1965-01-01", -0.1901 ], [ "1966-01-01", -0.4546 ], [ "1967-01-01", -1.005 ], [ "1968-01-01", -2.6749 ], [ "1969-01-01", 0.3186 ], [ "1970-01-01", -0.2648 ], [ "1971-01-01", -1.9773 ], [ "1972-01-01", -1.8273 ], [ "1973-01-01", -1.0459 ], [ "1974-01-01", -0.397 ], [ "1975-01-01", -3.1599 ], [ "1976-01-01", -3.9357 ], [ "1977-01-01", -2.5775 ], [ "1978-01-01", -2.5168 ], [ "1979-01-01", -1.5501 ], [ "1980-01-01", -2.5839 ], [ "1981-01-01", -2.4623 ], [ "1982-01-01", -3.8273 ], [ "1983-01-01", -5.7182 ], [ "1984-01-01", -4.591 ], [ "1985-01-01", -4.893 ], [ "1986-01-01", -4.8307 ], [ "1987-01-01", -3.0839 ], [ "1988-01-01", -2.9634 ], [ "1989-01-01", -2.7056 ], [ "1990-01-01", -3.7067 ], [ "1991-01-01", -4.3721 ], [ "1992-01-01", -4.4525 ], [ "1993-01-01", -3.7187 ], [ "1994-01-01", -2.7883 ], [ "1995-01-01", -2.146 ], [ "1996-01-01", -1.3307 ], [ "1997-01-01", -0.2551 ], [ "1998-01-01", 0.7643 ], [ "1999-01-01", 1.3042 ], [ "2000-01-01", 2.3046 ], [ "2001-01-01", 1.2118 ], [ "2002-01-01", -1.4435 ], [ "2003-01-01", -3.2958 ], [ "2004-01-01", -3.3782 ], [ "2005-01-01", -2.4415 ], [ "2006-01-01", -1.7964 ], [ "2007-01-01", -1.1103 ], [ "2008-01-01", -3.1046 ], [ "2009-01-01", -9.7574 ], [ "2010-01-01", -8.6011 ], [ "2011-01-01", -8.3309 ], [ "2012-01-01", -6.6235 ], [ "2013-01-01", -4.0269 ], [ "2014-01-01", -2.7532 ], [ "2015-01-01", -2.4157 ], [ "2016-01-01", -3.109 ], [ "2017-01-01", -3.3931 ], [ "2018-01-01", -3.7716 ], [ "2019-01-01", -4.5663 ], [ "2020-01-01", -14.4824 ], [ "2021-01-01", -11.6903 ], [ "2022-01-01", -5.2742 ], [ "2023-01-01", -6.0675 ], [ "2024-01-01", -6.1963 ], [ "2025-01-01", -5.7691 ] ], "key": "deficit_gdp", "group": "sfd", "group_label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise" }, "policy_uncertainty": { "label": "Wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "Index", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 298.6, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "start": "1900-01-01", "n": 1521, "percentile": 98.6, "pressure": 98.6, "zscore": 4.15, "tau": 0.305, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-08-01", "change_10y": 171.9, "change_30y": 216.5, "note": "Zeitungsbasierter Index von Baker, Bloom und Davis, hier als gleitendes Zw\u00f6lfmonatsmittel \u2014 die Rohreihe ist zu verrauscht f\u00fcr Niveauaussagen. Reicht bis 1900 zur\u00fcck und deckt damit beide Weltkriege, 1929 und 1968 ab.", "source": "policyuncertainty.com (news-based index, 1900\u2013heute)", "spark": [ [ "1900-01-01", 139.9062 ], [ "1901-01-01", 102.4112 ], [ "1902-02-01", 90.4852 ], [ "1903-03-01", 67.2991 ], [ "1904-03-01", 63.2891 ], [ "1905-04-01", 69.953 ], [ "1906-05-01", 63.1532 ], [ "1907-05-01", 50.8369 ], [ "1908-06-01", 60.0064 ], [ "1909-07-01", 75.4213 ], [ "1910-07-01", 67.0243 ], [ "1911-08-01", 68.1073 ], [ "1912-09-01", 58.4351 ], [ "1913-09-01", 79.191 ], [ "1914-10-01", 100.871 ], [ "1915-11-01", 96.2938 ], [ "1916-11-01", 80.8059 ], [ "1917-12-01", 85.4585 ], [ "1919-01-01", 116.6252 ], [ "1920-01-01", 96.8649 ], [ "1921-02-01", 61.8724 ], [ "1922-03-01", 74.8041 ], [ "1923-03-01", 60.5279 ], [ "1924-04-01", 69.8532 ], [ "1925-05-01", 75.8994 ], [ "1926-05-01", 53.2456 ], [ "1927-06-01", 59.48 ], [ "1928-07-01", 52.7241 ], [ "1929-07-01", 68.4792 ], [ "1930-08-01", 64.3777 ], [ "1931-09-01", 67.5077 ], [ "1932-09-01", 107.2623 ], [ "1933-10-01", 115.0136 ], [ "1934-11-01", 140.2823 ], [ "1935-11-01", 161.22 ], [ "1936-12-01", 118.1313 ], [ "1938-01-01", 127.6265 ], [ "1939-01-01", 125.5088 ], [ "1940-02-01", 127.9753 ], [ "1941-03-01", 137.5714 ], [ "1942-04-01", 117.539 ], [ "1943-04-01", 128.095 ], [ "1944-05-01", 101.1063 ], [ "1945-06-01", 92.0581 ], [ "1946-06-01", 107.1206 ], [ "1947-07-01", 95.8874 ], [ "1948-08-01", 69.0576 ], [ "1949-08-01", 64.9289 ], [ "1950-09-01", 53.7738 ], [ "1951-10-01", 64.2754 ], [ "1952-10-01", 50.6793 ], [ "1953-11-01", 51.6277 ], [ "1954-12-01", 46.19 ], [ "1955-12-01", 36.394 ], [ "1957-01-01", 38.8223 ], [ "1958-02-01", 36.3584 ], [ "1959-02-01", 36.9136 ], [ "1960-03-01", 31.8547 ], [ "1961-04-01", 35.09 ], [ "1962-04-01", 35.4593 ], [ "1963-05-01", 46.8269 ], [ "1964-06-01", 41.2367 ], [ "1965-06-01", 41.0196 ], [ "1966-07-01", 43.6579 ], [ "1967-08-01", 53.4355 ], [ "1968-08-01", 66.0081 ], [ "1969-09-01", 56.3814 ], [ "1970-10-01", 54.5788 ], [ "1971-10-01", 67.8695 ], [ "1972-11-01", 65.7052 ], [ "1973-12-01", 89.2011 ], [ "1974-12-01", 99.1742 ], [ "1976-01-01", 87.0563 ], [ "1977-02-01", 74.4376 ], [ "1978-02-01", 88.3142 ], [ "1979-03-01", 88.2131 ], [ "1980-04-01", 98.2357 ], [ "1981-04-01", 89.0512 ], [ "1982-05-01", 103.0932 ], [ "1983-06-01", 109.184 ], [ "1984-07-01", 97.9549 ], [ "1985-07-01", 101.3847 ], [ "1986-08-01", 114.6683 ], [ "1987-09-01", 86.0273 ], [ "1988-09-01", 114.6706 ], [ "1989-10-01", 81.316 ], [ "1990-11-01", 114.9492 ], [ "1991-11-01", 114.1173 ], [ "1992-12-01", 116.6132 ], [ "1994-01-01", 102.1968 ], [ "1995-01-01", 90.9138 ], [ "1996-02-01", 79.9087 ], [ "1997-03-01", 73.9795 ], [ "1998-03-01", 83.0459 ], [ "1999-04-01", 107.2079 ], [ "2000-05-01", 80.1126 ], [ "2001-05-01", 117.4212 ], [ "2002-06-01", 143.7065 ], [ "2003-07-01", 151.9088 ], [ "2004-07-01", 88.4641 ], [ "2005-08-01", 77.0723 ], [ "2006-09-01", 71.6077 ], [ "2007-09-01", 66.549 ], [ "2008-10-01", 131.3005 ], [ "2009-11-01", 130.0075 ], [ "2010-11-01", 144.0492 ], [ "2011-12-01", 157.3521 ], [ "2013-01-01", 161.722 ], [ "2014-01-01", 130.3227 ], [ "2015-02-01", 93.0571 ], [ "2016-03-01", 123.7361 ], [ "2017-03-01", 152.9415 ], [ "2018-04-01", 135.4581 ], [ "2019-05-01", 161.095 ], [ "2020-05-01", 259.7526 ], [ "2021-06-01", 248.5089 ], [ "2022-07-01", 175.2142 ], [ "2023-07-01", 179.1631 ], [ "2024-08-01", 128.6642 ], [ "2025-09-01", 357.7418 ], [ "2026-09-01", 298.5829 ] ], "key": "policy_uncertainty", "group": "instab", "group_label": "Realisierte Instabilit\u00e4t (Ergebnisgr\u00f6\u00dfe, nicht Teil des PSI)" }, "consumer_sentiment": { "label": "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "Index", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": 51.7, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1952-11-01", "n": 676, "percentile": 1.2, "pressure": 98.8, "zscore": 2.38, "tau": -0.131, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2022-07-01", "change_10y": -38.1, "change_30y": -43.6, "note": "Der beste verf\u00fcgbare Langzeit-N\u00e4herungswert f\u00fcr erlebte Legitimit\u00e4t: Er misst nicht die Konjunkturlage, sondern wie die Bev\u00f6lkerung sie bewertet \u2014 und beides ist seit 2021 auff\u00e4llig entkoppelt.", "source": "University of Michigan \u00fcber FRED (UMCSENT, ab 1952)", "spark": [ [ "1952-11-01", 86.2 ], [ "1954-05-01", 82.9 ], [ "1956-08-01", 99.9 ], [ "1958-05-01", 80.9 ], [ "1960-08-01", 97.2 ], [ "1962-02-01", 99.9 ], [ "1963-05-01", 91.7 ], [ "1964-11-01", 99.9 ], [ "1966-05-01", 95.7 ], [ "1967-08-01", 97.0 ], [ "1969-02-01", 98.2 ], [ "1970-05-01", 75.4 ], [ "1971-11-01", 82.0 ], [ "1973-05-01", 77.0 ], [ "1974-08-01", 64.4 ], [ "1976-02-01", 84.6 ], [ "1977-08-01", 89.0 ], [ "1978-04-01", 81.6 ], [ "1978-10-01", 79.3 ], [ "1979-04-01", 66.0 ], [ "1979-09-01", 66.7 ], [ "1980-03-01", 56.5 ], [ "1980-08-01", 67.3 ], [ "1981-02-01", 66.9 ], [ "1981-08-01", 77.2 ], [ "1982-01-01", 71.0 ], [ "1982-07-01", 65.4 ], [ "1983-01-01", 70.4 ], [ "1983-06-01", 92.2 ], [ "1983-12-01", 94.2 ], [ "1984-06-01", 95.5 ], [ "1984-11-01", 95.7 ], [ "1985-05-01", 91.8 ], [ "1985-10-01", 88.4 ], [ "1986-04-01", 96.2 ], [ "1986-10-01", 95.6 ], [ "1987-03-01", 90.8 ], [ "1987-09-01", 93.6 ], [ "1988-03-01", 94.6 ], [ "1988-08-01", 97.4 ], [ "1989-02-01", 95.4 ], [ "1989-07-01", 92.0 ], [ "1990-01-01", 93.0 ], [ "1990-07-01", 88.2 ], [ "1990-12-01", 65.5 ], [ "1991-06-01", 82.1 ], [ "1991-12-01", 68.2 ], [ "1992-05-01", 79.2 ], [ "1992-11-01", 85.3 ], [ "1993-05-01", 80.3 ], [ "1993-10-01", 82.7 ], [ "1994-04-01", 92.6 ], [ "1994-09-01", 91.5 ], [ "1995-03-01", 90.3 ], [ "1995-09-01", 88.9 ], [ "1996-02-01", 88.5 ], [ "1996-08-01", 95.3 ], [ "1997-02-01", 99.7 ], [ "1997-07-01", 107.1 ], [ "1998-01-01", 106.6 ], [ "1998-07-01", 105.2 ], [ "1998-12-01", 100.5 ], [ "1999-06-01", 107.3 ], [ "1999-11-01", 107.2 ], [ "2000-05-01", 110.7 ], [ "2000-11-01", 107.6 ], [ "2001-04-01", 88.4 ], [ "2001-10-01", 82.7 ], [ "2002-04-01", 93.0 ], [ "2002-09-01", 86.1 ], [ "2003-03-01", 77.6 ], [ "2003-08-01", 89.3 ], [ "2004-02-01", 94.4 ], [ "2004-08-01", 95.9 ], [ "2005-01-01", 95.5 ], [ "2005-07-01", 96.5 ], [ "2006-01-01", 91.2 ], [ "2006-06-01", 84.9 ], [ "2006-12-01", 91.7 ], [ "2007-06-01", 85.3 ], [ "2007-11-01", 76.1 ], [ "2008-05-01", 59.8 ], [ "2008-10-01", 57.6 ], [ "2009-04-01", 65.1 ], [ "2009-10-01", 70.6 ], [ "2010-03-01", 73.6 ], [ "2010-09-01", 68.2 ], [ "2011-03-01", 67.5 ], [ "2011-08-01", 55.8 ], [ "2012-02-01", 75.3 ], [ "2012-08-01", 74.3 ], [ "2013-01-01", 73.8 ], [ "2013-07-01", 85.1 ], [ "2013-12-01", 82.5 ], [ "2014-06-01", 82.5 ], [ "2014-12-01", 93.6 ], [ "2015-05-01", 90.7 ], [ "2015-11-01", 91.3 ], [ "2016-05-01", 94.7 ], [ "2016-10-01", 87.2 ], [ "2017-04-01", 97.0 ], [ "2017-09-01", 95.1 ], [ "2018-03-01", 101.4 ], [ "2018-09-01", 100.1 ], [ "2019-02-01", 93.8 ], [ "2019-08-01", 89.8 ], [ "2020-02-01", 101.0 ], [ "2020-07-01", 72.5 ], [ "2021-01-01", 79.0 ], [ "2021-07-01", 81.2 ], [ "2021-12-01", 70.6 ], [ "2022-06-01", 50.0 ], [ "2022-11-01", 56.7 ], [ "2023-05-01", 59.0 ], [ "2023-11-01", 61.3 ], [ "2024-04-01", 77.2 ], [ "2024-10-01", 70.5 ], [ "2025-04-01", 52.2 ], [ "2025-09-01", 55.1 ], [ "2026-03-01", 53.3 ], [ "2026-08-01", 51.7 ] ], "key": "consumer_sentiment", "group": "instab", "group_label": "Realisierte Instabilit\u00e4t (Ergebnisgr\u00f6\u00dfe, nicht Teil des PSI)" }, "profit_rate": { "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.4, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 9.13, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 313, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 0.0, "zscore": -2.19, "tau": 0.341, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-10-01", "change_10y": 1.01, "change_30y": 3.6, "note": "Nachsteuergewinne im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum Nettoanlageverm\u00f6gen zu Wiederbeschaffungskosten \u2014 die direkteste verf\u00fcgbare Umsetzung der Marxschen Profitrate. Der Nenner ist eine Jahresreihe, der Z\u00e4hler quartalsweise; der Nenner wird deshalb innerhalb des Jahres fortgeschrieben.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (CPATAX \u00f7 K1NTOTL1ES000)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 3.7479 ], [ "1947-07-01", 5.2189 ], [ "1948-04-01", 6.5541 ], [ "1948-10-01", 6.9818 ], [ "1949-07-01", 6.7371 ], [ "1950-04-01", 5.294 ], [ "1950-10-01", 5.5179 ], [ "1951-07-01", 5.7967 ], [ "1952-01-01", 5.3061 ], [ "1952-10-01", 5.5019 ], [ "1953-07-01", 5.0615 ], [ "1954-01-01", 4.9195 ], [ "1954-10-01", 5.3747 ], [ "1955-04-01", 6.2853 ], [ "1956-01-01", 5.4865 ], [ "1956-10-01", 5.2453 ], [ "1957-04-01", 5.3517 ], [ "1958-01-01", 4.1966 ], [ "1958-07-01", 4.6886 ], [ "1959-04-01", 5.9438 ], [ "1960-01-01", 5.8693 ], [ "1960-07-01", 5.5677 ], [ "1961-04-01", 5.47 ], [ "1961-10-01", 5.919 ], [ "1962-07-01", 6.4921 ], [ "1963-04-01", 6.8885 ], [ "1963-10-01", 6.7074 ], [ "1964-07-01", 7.4652 ], [ "1965-04-01", 7.9601 ], [ "1965-10-01", 7.7424 ], [ "1966-07-01", 7.7925 ], [ "1967-01-01", 7.1964 ], [ "1967-10-01", 6.7215 ], [ "1968-07-01", 6.8408 ], [ "1969-01-01", 6.1353 ], [ "1969-10-01", 4.8934 ], [ "1970-04-01", 4.9339 ], [ "1971-01-01", 4.881 ], [ "1971-10-01", 5.1101 ], [ "1972-04-01", 5.481 ], [ "1973-01-01", 5.6054 ], [ "1973-07-01", 5.7056 ], [ "1974-04-01", 4.3433 ], [ "1975-01-01", 3.8127 ], [ "1975-07-01", 4.691 ], [ "1976-04-01", 4.9894 ], [ "1976-10-01", 4.5753 ], [ "1977-07-01", 5.8754 ], [ "1978-04-01", 5.5648 ], [ "1978-10-01", 5.2327 ], [ "1979-07-01", 5.1073 ], [ "1980-04-01", 3.7323 ], [ "1980-10-01", 3.5995 ], [ "1981-07-01", 4.2892 ], [ "1982-01-01", 3.6875 ], [ "1982-10-01", 3.7285 ], [ "1983-07-01", 4.541 ], [ "1984-01-01", 4.9059 ], [ "1984-10-01", 5.006 ], [ "1985-04-01", 5.0908 ], [ "1986-01-01", 4.4735 ], [ "1986-10-01", 3.6274 ], [ "1987-04-01", 4.2751 ], [ "1988-01-01", 4.5029 ], [ "1988-07-01", 4.5525 ], [ "1989-04-01", 4.4389 ], [ "1990-01-01", 4.2573 ], [ "1990-07-01", 4.0102 ], [ "1991-04-01", 4.5815 ], [ "1991-10-01", 4.4269 ], [ "1992-07-01", 4.5784 ], [ "1993-04-01", 4.6378 ], [ "1993-10-01", 4.9017 ], [ "1994-07-01", 5.6928 ], [ "1995-04-01", 5.8633 ], [ "1995-10-01", 6.0701 ], [ "1996-07-01", 6.4571 ], [ "1997-01-01", 6.5993 ], [ "1997-10-01", 6.6508 ], [ "1998-07-01", 6.0595 ], [ "1999-01-01", 5.9912 ], [ "1999-10-01", 5.4403 ], [ "2000-04-01", 5.1339 ], [ "2001-01-01", 4.8686 ], [ "2001-10-01", 5.0646 ], [ "2002-04-01", 5.9276 ], [ "2003-01-01", 6.1916 ], [ "2003-07-01", 6.7491 ], [ "2004-04-01", 7.2753 ], [ "2005-01-01", 7.1578 ], [ "2005-07-01", 7.4894 ], [ "2006-04-01", 7.5338 ], [ "2006-10-01", 7.1552 ], [ "2007-07-01", 6.8747 ], [ "2008-04-01", 6.0828 ], [ "2008-10-01", 4.931 ], [ "2009-07-01", 7.0536 ], [ "2010-04-01", 7.617 ], [ "2010-10-01", 8.1149 ], [ "2011-07-01", 8.2656 ], [ "2012-01-01", 8.7056 ], [ "2012-10-01", 8.0759 ], [ "2013-07-01", 8.1771 ], [ "2014-01-01", 7.5044 ], [ "2014-10-01", 8.3592 ], [ "2015-04-01", 8.0002 ], [ "2016-01-01", 7.6741 ], [ "2016-10-01", 7.5112 ], [ "2017-04-01", 7.8818 ], [ "2018-01-01", 8.0405 ], [ "2018-07-01", 8.2133 ], [ "2019-04-01", 8.1772 ], [ "2020-01-01", 7.3421 ], [ "2020-07-01", 8.9374 ], [ "2021-04-01", 8.9263 ], [ "2021-10-01", 7.9853 ], [ "2022-07-01", 8.5747 ], [ "2023-04-01", 8.3296 ], [ "2023-10-01", 8.4988 ], [ "2024-07-01", 8.4262 ], [ "2025-01-01", 9.135 ] ], "key": "profit_rate", "group": "profit", "group_label": "Profitabilit\u00e4t" }, "profit_share": { "label": "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 13.14, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 100.0, "zscore": 2.58, "tau": 0.293, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 3.17, "change_30y": 6.42, "note": "Spiegelbild der Lohnquote. Ein hoher Wert ist aus Kapitalsicht St\u00e4rke, aus Systemsicht das Unterkonsumtionsproblem: Was nicht als Lohn ausgezahlt wird, muss als Kredit oder Export zur\u00fcckkommen, damit es gekauft wird.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (CP \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 9.0351 ], [ "1947-07-01", 8.2393 ], [ "1948-04-01", 9.1504 ], [ "1948-10-01", 8.4746 ], [ "1949-07-01", 7.2616 ], [ "1950-04-01", 8.2012 ], [ "1950-10-01", 9.8708 ], [ "1951-07-01", 5.9132 ], [ "1952-04-01", 5.8984 ], [ "1952-10-01", 6.2372 ], [ "1953-07-01", 6.1868 ], [ "1954-04-01", 5.8347 ], [ "1954-10-01", 6.383 ], [ "1955-07-01", 6.9367 ], [ "1956-04-01", 7.0505 ], [ "1956-10-01", 6.9232 ], [ "1957-07-01", 6.3138 ], [ "1958-04-01", 5.2121 ], [ "1958-10-01", 6.097 ], [ "1959-07-01", 6.1788 ], [ "1960-04-01", 5.9718 ], [ "1960-10-01", 5.5391 ], [ "1961-07-01", 5.693 ], [ "1962-01-01", 5.9251 ], [ "1962-10-01", 6.0538 ], [ "1963-07-01", 6.1531 ], [ "1964-01-01", 6.63 ], [ "1964-10-01", 6.4782 ], [ "1965-07-01", 7.142 ], [ "1966-01-01", 7.3037 ], [ "1966-10-01", 6.9023 ], [ "1967-07-01", 6.5347 ], [ "1968-01-01", 6.4681 ], [ "1968-10-01", 6.4666 ], [ "1969-07-01", 5.6929 ], [ "1970-01-01", 5.2628 ], [ "1970-10-01", 4.9008 ], [ "1971-07-01", 5.6505 ], [ "1972-01-01", 5.9146 ], [ "1972-10-01", 6.2822 ], [ "1973-07-01", 7.0553 ], [ "1974-01-01", 7.5547 ], [ "1974-10-01", 6.7456 ], [ "1975-04-01", 6.0178 ], [ "1976-01-01", 7.2894 ], [ "1976-10-01", 7.1909 ], [ "1977-04-01", 7.7217 ], [ "1978-01-01", 7.8056 ], [ "1978-10-01", 8.4738 ], [ "1979-04-01", 8.5363 ], [ "1980-01-01", 7.9997 ], [ "1980-10-01", 6.9676 ], [ "1981-04-01", 6.3271 ], [ "1982-01-01", 5.5419 ], [ "1982-10-01", 5.0668 ], [ "1983-04-01", 5.4012 ], [ "1984-01-01", 5.61 ], [ "1984-10-01", 5.1371 ], [ "1985-04-01", 4.7636 ], [ "1986-01-01", 3.8747 ], [ "1986-10-01", 3.8057 ], [ "1987-04-01", 4.5902 ], [ "1988-01-01", 4.9715 ], [ "1988-07-01", 5.0329 ], [ "1989-04-01", 4.8671 ], [ "1990-01-01", 4.6452 ], [ "1990-07-01", 4.8075 ], [ "1991-04-01", 4.9714 ], [ "1992-01-01", 5.1831 ], [ "1992-07-01", 5.0049 ], [ "1993-04-01", 5.1257 ], [ "1994-01-01", 5.8079 ], [ "1994-07-01", 6.1312 ], [ "1995-04-01", 6.6128 ], [ "1996-01-01", 6.8273 ], [ "1996-07-01", 6.6074 ], [ "1997-04-01", 6.8615 ], [ "1998-01-01", 6.0812 ], [ "1998-07-01", 5.8685 ], [ "1999-04-01", 5.9686 ], [ "2000-01-01", 5.6492 ], [ "2000-07-01", 5.3708 ], [ "2001-04-01", 5.489 ], [ "2001-10-01", 4.8095 ], [ "2002-07-01", 6.095 ], [ "2003-04-01", 6.5645 ], [ "2003-10-01", 7.1368 ], [ "2004-07-01", 8.472 ], [ "2005-04-01", 10.0036 ], [ "2005-10-01", 10.5638 ], [ "2006-07-01", 10.7809 ], [ "2007-04-01", 10.1547 ], [ "2007-10-01", 9.738 ], [ "2008-07-01", 8.6207 ], [ "2009-04-01", 8.3398 ], [ "2009-10-01", 10.2329 ], [ "2010-07-01", 10.8742 ], [ "2011-04-01", 10.1568 ], [ "2011-10-01", 10.5514 ], [ "2012-07-01", 11.5111 ], [ "2013-04-01", 10.9025 ], [ "2013-10-01", 11.1287 ], [ "2014-07-01", 11.2952 ], [ "2015-01-01", 10.3913 ], [ "2015-10-01", 9.475 ], [ "2016-07-01", 9.8321 ], [ "2017-01-01", 10.6103 ], [ "2017-10-01", 9.3069 ], [ "2018-07-01", 9.6849 ], [ "2019-01-01", 9.6873 ], [ "2019-10-01", 9.6699 ], [ "2020-07-01", 11.7774 ], [ "2021-01-01", 11.8081 ], [ "2021-10-01", 11.9105 ], [ "2022-07-01", 11.6528 ], [ "2023-01-01", 11.4235 ], [ "2023-10-01", 11.4125 ], [ "2024-07-01", 11.3976 ], [ "2025-01-01", 11.1352 ], [ "2025-10-01", 12.0261 ], [ "2026-04-01", 13.1435 ] ], "key": "profit_share", "group": "profit", "group_label": "Profitabilit\u00e4t" }, "capacity_utilization": { "label": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": 76.3, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1967-01-01", "n": 716, "percentile": 20.3, "pressure": 79.7, "zscore": 0.84, "tau": -0.429, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-06-01", "change_10y": 0.8, "change_30y": -7.2, "note": "Der direkte Test der \u00dcberproduktionsthese: Wenn Kapazit\u00e4ten dauerhaft brachliegen, ist Kapital angelegt, das sich nicht verwerten l\u00e4sst.", "source": "Federal Reserve \u00fcber FRED (TCU, ab 1967)", "spark": [ [ "1967-01-01", 89.3902 ], [ "1967-06-01", 85.9603 ], [ "1967-12-01", 87.8417 ], [ "1968-06-01", 87.6744 ], [ "1968-12-01", 87.6668 ], [ "1969-06-01", 87.7487 ], [ "1969-12-01", 85.5368 ], [ "1970-06-01", 81.6542 ], [ "1970-12-01", 79.3872 ], [ "1971-06-01", 79.7132 ], [ "1971-12-01", 80.9666 ], [ "1972-06-01", 84.14 ], [ "1972-12-01", 87.4839 ], [ "1973-06-01", 88.2262 ], [ "1973-12-01", 88.2372 ], [ "1974-06-01", 86.199 ], [ "1974-12-01", 78.472 ], [ "1975-06-01", 74.4361 ], [ "1975-12-01", 77.6271 ], [ "1976-06-01", 79.3919 ], [ "1976-12-01", 81.6007 ], [ "1977-06-01", 84.1859 ], [ "1977-12-01", 83.7565 ], [ "1978-06-01", 85.8087 ], [ "1978-12-01", 86.6488 ], [ "1979-06-01", 85.2867 ], [ "1979-12-01", 83.991 ], [ "1980-06-01", 78.5118 ], [ "1980-12-01", 81.3842 ], [ "1981-06-01", 80.2511 ], [ "1981-12-01", 76.7706 ], [ "1982-05-01", 74.2775 ], [ "1982-11-01", 71.5396 ], [ "1983-05-01", 73.6804 ], [ "1983-11-01", 77.9317 ], [ "1984-05-01", 80.8857 ], [ "1984-11-01", 80.4551 ], [ "1985-05-01", 79.53 ], [ "1985-11-01", 78.624 ], [ "1986-05-01", 78.3175 ], [ "1986-11-01", 78.7 ], [ "1987-05-01", 80.4929 ], [ "1987-11-01", 83.0015 ], [ "1988-05-01", 84.0006 ], [ "1988-11-01", 84.7301 ], [ "1989-05-01", 83.9944 ], [ "1989-11-01", 82.7778 ], [ "1990-05-01", 82.8798 ], [ "1990-11-01", 80.9828 ], [ "1991-05-01", 79.5846 ], [ "1991-11-01", 80.4053 ], [ "1992-05-01", 80.764 ], [ "1992-11-01", 81.1636 ], [ "1993-05-01", 81.0851 ], [ "1993-11-01", 82.0178 ], [ "1994-05-01", 83.2793 ], [ "1994-11-01", 84.414 ], [ "1995-05-01", 83.9876 ], [ "1995-11-01", 83.4429 ], [ "1996-05-01", 83.5236 ], [ "1996-11-01", 83.5622 ], [ "1997-04-01", 83.7916 ], [ "1997-10-01", 84.7793 ], [ "1998-04-01", 83.2923 ], [ "1998-10-01", 82.4879 ], [ "1999-04-01", 81.9153 ], [ "1999-10-01", 82.0771 ], [ "2000-04-01", 82.4316 ], [ "2000-10-01", 80.8334 ], [ "2001-04-01", 77.7206 ], [ "2001-10-01", 74.5431 ], [ "2002-04-01", 74.7452 ], [ "2002-10-01", 75.3553 ], [ "2003-04-01", 75.6028 ], [ "2003-10-01", 76.5884 ], [ "2004-04-01", 77.7807 ], [ "2004-10-01", 79.1635 ], [ "2005-04-01", 80.5421 ], [ "2005-10-01", 79.6607 ], [ "2006-04-01", 80.7713 ], [ "2006-10-01", 80.1804 ], [ "2007-04-01", 81.0737 ], [ "2007-10-01", 80.6837 ], [ "2008-04-01", 80.0376 ], [ "2008-10-01", 74.8669 ], [ "2009-04-01", 67.4762 ], [ "2009-10-01", 69.0357 ], [ "2010-04-01", 72.1905 ], [ "2010-10-01", 74.58 ], [ "2011-04-01", 75.6127 ], [ "2011-10-01", 76.8123 ], [ "2012-03-01", 76.8194 ], [ "2012-09-01", 76.4846 ], [ "2013-03-01", 77.2135 ], [ "2013-09-01", 77.5046 ], [ "2014-03-01", 78.4628 ], [ "2014-09-01", 78.9218 ], [ "2015-03-01", 77.7804 ], [ "2015-09-01", 76.9791 ], [ "2016-03-01", 75.1587 ], [ "2016-09-01", 75.3145 ], [ "2017-03-01", 75.4439 ], [ "2017-09-01", 76.3591 ], [ "2018-03-01", 78.5697 ], [ "2018-09-01", 79.9314 ], [ "2019-03-01", 78.5337 ], [ "2019-09-01", 77.6205 ], [ "2020-03-01", 73.7887 ], [ "2020-09-01", 73.1451 ], [ "2021-03-01", 75.8472 ], [ "2021-09-01", 76.8871 ], [ "2022-03-01", 79.0253 ], [ "2022-09-01", 78.6087 ], [ "2023-03-01", 77.8036 ], [ "2023-09-01", 77.3375 ], [ "2024-03-01", 76.5964 ], [ "2024-09-01", 75.7216 ], [ "2025-03-01", 76.1318 ], [ "2025-09-01", 76.0461 ], [ "2026-03-01", 75.6178 ], [ "2026-08-01", 76.2717 ] ], "key": "capacity_utilization", "group": "realisierung", "group_label": "Realisierung und Absatz" }, "net_investment": { "label": "Netto-Investitionsquote", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.3, "unit": "% des BIP", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 4.15, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 12.9, "pressure": 87.1, "zscore": 1.04, "tau": -0.485, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2021-04-01", "change_10y": -0.03, "change_30y": -2.02, "note": "Private Nettoinvestitionen (nach Abschreibungen) im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum BIP \u2014 wie viel Kapital tats\u00e4chlich neu akkumuliert statt nur ersetzt wird. Der Marxsche Akkumulationsbegriff im engeren Sinn.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (A557RC1Q027SBEA \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 8.0452 ], [ "1947-07-01", 6.6787 ], [ "1948-04-01", 10.9188 ], [ "1948-10-01", 10.5837 ], [ "1949-07-01", 6.1461 ], [ "1950-04-01", 9.7843 ], [ "1950-10-01", 13.4261 ], [ "1951-07-01", 9.6142 ], [ "1952-04-01", 6.561 ], [ "1952-10-01", 8.0286 ], [ "1953-07-01", 7.6314 ], [ "1954-04-01", 5.8764 ], [ "1954-10-01", 7.1528 ], [ "1955-07-01", 9.1734 ], [ "1956-04-01", 8.6698 ], [ "1956-10-01", 8.0141 ], [ "1957-07-01", 7.6496 ], [ "1958-04-01", 4.3252 ], [ "1958-10-01", 6.8585 ], [ "1959-07-01", 6.9656 ], [ "1960-04-01", 7.2211 ], [ "1960-10-01", 5.0396 ], [ "1961-07-01", 7.2097 ], [ "1962-01-01", 7.9271 ], [ "1962-10-01", 6.9178 ], [ "1963-07-01", 7.7811 ], [ "1964-01-01", 8.1405 ], [ "1964-10-01", 8.0748 ], [ "1965-07-01", 9.2207 ], [ "1966-01-01", 9.9586 ], [ "1966-10-01", 9.1754 ], [ "1967-07-01", 7.9427 ], [ "1968-01-01", 8.2134 ], [ "1968-10-01", 7.956 ], [ "1969-07-01", 8.4463 ], [ "1970-01-01", 6.9659 ], [ "1970-10-01", 5.9762 ], [ "1971-07-01", 7.917 ], [ "1972-01-01", 8.0898 ], [ "1972-10-01", 8.8707 ], [ "1973-07-01", 9.1303 ], [ "1974-01-01", 8.3529 ], [ "1974-10-01", 7.3989 ], [ "1975-04-01", 4.0346 ], [ "1976-01-01", 6.3207 ], [ "1976-10-01", 6.8969 ], [ "1977-04-01", 8.3772 ], [ "1978-01-01", 8.8722 ], [ "1978-10-01", 10.1066 ], [ "1979-04-01", 9.8003 ], [ "1980-01-01", 8.4912 ], [ "1980-10-01", 6.6631 ], [ "1981-04-01", 7.3802 ], [ "1982-01-01", 5.4653 ], [ "1982-10-01", 3.5199 ], [ "1983-04-01", 4.967 ], [ "1984-01-01", 8.6555 ], [ "1984-10-01", 8.6009 ], [ "1985-04-01", 7.8016 ], [ "1986-01-01", 7.6495 ], [ "1986-10-01", 6.3936 ], [ "1987-04-01", 6.5215 ], [ "1988-01-01", 6.2425 ], [ "1988-07-01", 6.2223 ], [ "1989-04-01", 6.3495 ], [ "1990-01-01", 5.7305 ], [ "1990-07-01", 5.1144 ], [ "1991-04-01", 3.3873 ], [ "1992-01-01", 3.5063 ], [ "1992-07-01", 4.2448 ], [ "1993-04-01", 4.7186 ], [ "1994-01-01", 5.5984 ], [ "1994-07-01", 5.7751 ], [ "1995-04-01", 5.6616 ], [ "1996-01-01", 5.6543 ], [ "1996-07-01", 6.634 ], [ "1997-04-01", 7.1642 ], [ "1998-01-01", 7.7299 ], [ "1998-07-01", 7.4691 ], [ "1999-04-01", 7.6672 ], [ "2000-01-01", 7.4694 ], [ "2000-07-01", 7.9129 ], [ "2001-04-01", 6.283 ], [ "2001-10-01", 4.8254 ], [ "2002-07-01", 5.1545 ], [ "2003-04-01", 5.0294 ], [ "2003-10-01", 5.9152 ], [ "2004-07-01", 6.5871 ], [ "2005-04-01", 6.7525 ], [ "2005-10-01", 7.272 ], [ "2006-07-01", 6.8024 ], [ "2007-04-01", 5.9393 ], [ "2007-10-01", 5.1826 ], [ "2008-07-01", 3.7086 ], [ "2009-04-01", -0.444 ], [ "2009-10-01", 0.5142 ], [ "2010-07-01", 2.0064 ], [ "2011-04-01", 1.9845 ], [ "2011-10-01", 3.0224 ], [ "2012-07-01", 3.3691 ], [ "2013-04-01", 3.6994 ], [ "2013-10-01", 4.1385 ], [ "2014-07-01", 4.6276 ], [ "2015-01-01", 5.0607 ], [ "2015-10-01", 4.6241 ], [ "2016-07-01", 4.1034 ], [ "2017-01-01", 4.2326 ], [ "2017-10-01", 4.6178 ], [ "2018-07-01", 4.9662 ], [ "2019-01-01", 4.8444 ], [ "2019-10-01", 4.3587 ], [ "2020-07-01", 4.1251 ], [ "2021-01-01", 4.2533 ], [ "2021-10-01", 5.1922 ], [ "2022-07-01", 4.5274 ], [ "2023-01-01", 4.2113 ], [ "2023-10-01", 4.5621 ], [ "2024-07-01", 4.5723 ], [ "2025-01-01", 5.0432 ], [ "2025-10-01", 4.0129 ], [ "2026-04-01", 4.1548 ] ], "key": "net_investment", "group": "realisierung", "group_label": "Realisierung und Absatz" }, "inventory_sales": { "label": "Lagerbest\u00e4nde \u00f7 Umsatz", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 0.7, "unit": "Monate", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 1.3, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1992-01-01", "n": 415, "percentile": 28.4, "pressure": 28.4, "zscore": -0.92, "tau": -0.265, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-06-01", "change_10y": -0.12, "change_30y": -0.15, "note": "Unmittelbares Realisierungsproblem: produzierte Ware, die keinen K\u00e4ufer findet. Kurze Reihe (ab 1992), daher geringes Gewicht.", "source": "Census \u00fcber FRED (ISRATIO)", "spark": [ [ "1992-01-01", 1.56 ], [ "1992-04-01", 1.53 ], [ "1992-07-01", 1.51 ], [ "1992-11-01", 1.51 ], [ "1993-02-01", 1.5 ], [ "1993-06-01", 1.5 ], [ "1993-09-01", 1.49 ], [ "1994-01-01", 1.48 ], [ "1994-04-01", 1.46 ], [ "1994-08-01", 1.45 ], [ "1994-11-01", 1.45 ], [ "1995-03-01", 1.48 ], [ "1995-06-01", 1.48 ], [ "1995-09-01", 1.47 ], [ "1996-01-01", 1.5 ], [ "1996-04-01", 1.46 ], [ "1996-08-01", 1.45 ], [ "1996-11-01", 1.43 ], [ "1997-03-01", 1.4 ], [ "1997-06-01", 1.42 ], [ "1997-10-01", 1.42 ], [ "1998-01-01", 1.43 ], [ "1998-05-01", 1.43 ], [ "1998-08-01", 1.44 ], [ "1998-12-01", 1.42 ], [ "1999-03-01", 1.42 ], [ "1999-06-01", 1.4 ], [ "1999-10-01", 1.39 ], [ "2000-01-01", 1.38 ], [ "2000-05-01", 1.4 ], [ "2000-08-01", 1.42 ], [ "2000-12-01", 1.42 ], [ "2001-03-01", 1.44 ], [ "2001-07-01", 1.43 ], [ "2001-10-01", 1.39 ], [ "2002-02-01", 1.37 ], [ "2002-05-01", 1.35 ], [ "2002-08-01", 1.34 ], [ "2002-12-01", 1.37 ], [ "2003-03-01", 1.35 ], [ "2003-07-01", 1.33 ], [ "2003-10-01", 1.31 ], [ "2004-02-01", 1.3 ], [ "2004-05-01", 1.29 ], [ "2004-09-01", 1.3 ], [ "2004-12-01", 1.28 ], [ "2005-04-01", 1.28 ], [ "2005-07-01", 1.26 ], [ "2005-11-01", 1.25 ], [ "2006-02-01", 1.25 ], [ "2006-05-01", 1.27 ], [ "2006-09-01", 1.31 ], [ "2006-12-01", 1.28 ], [ "2007-04-01", 1.28 ], [ "2007-07-01", 1.29 ], [ "2007-11-01", 1.26 ], [ "2008-02-01", 1.28 ], [ "2008-06-01", 1.25 ], [ "2008-09-01", 1.31 ], [ "2009-01-01", 1.48 ], [ "2009-04-01", 1.45 ], [ "2009-07-01", 1.36 ], [ "2009-11-01", 1.29 ], [ "2010-02-01", 1.28 ], [ "2010-06-01", 1.27 ], [ "2010-09-01", 1.28 ], [ "2011-01-01", 1.25 ], [ "2011-04-01", 1.25 ], [ "2011-08-01", 1.26 ], [ "2011-11-01", 1.26 ], [ "2012-03-01", 1.25 ], [ "2012-06-01", 1.29 ], [ "2012-10-01", 1.29 ], [ "2013-01-01", 1.29 ], [ "2013-04-01", 1.3 ], [ "2013-08-01", 1.29 ], [ "2013-11-01", 1.29 ], [ "2014-03-01", 1.3 ], [ "2014-06-01", 1.31 ], [ "2014-10-01", 1.32 ], [ "2015-01-01", 1.38 ], [ "2015-05-01", 1.38 ], [ "2015-08-01", 1.4 ], [ "2015-12-01", 1.43 ], [ "2016-03-01", 1.43 ], [ "2016-06-01", 1.41 ], [ "2016-10-01", 1.41 ], [ "2017-01-01", 1.39 ], [ "2017-05-01", 1.4 ], [ "2017-08-01", 1.4 ], [ "2017-12-01", 1.35 ], [ "2018-03-01", 1.36 ], [ "2018-07-01", 1.35 ], [ "2018-10-01", 1.36 ], [ "2019-02-01", 1.41 ], [ "2019-05-01", 1.41 ], [ "2019-09-01", 1.43 ], [ "2019-12-01", 1.43 ], [ "2020-03-01", 1.51 ], [ "2020-07-01", 1.37 ], [ "2020-10-01", 1.36 ], [ "2021-02-01", 1.34 ], [ "2021-05-01", 1.27 ], [ "2021-09-01", 1.29 ], [ "2021-12-01", 1.31 ], [ "2022-04-01", 1.32 ], [ "2022-07-01", 1.37 ], [ "2022-11-01", 1.41 ], [ "2023-02-01", 1.41 ], [ "2023-05-01", 1.42 ], [ "2023-09-01", 1.38 ], [ "2023-12-01", 1.4 ], [ "2024-04-01", 1.4 ], [ "2024-07-01", 1.4 ], [ "2024-11-01", 1.4 ], [ "2025-02-01", 1.39 ], [ "2025-06-01", 1.39 ], [ "2025-09-01", 1.37 ], [ "2026-01-01", 1.35 ], [ "2026-04-01", 1.3 ], [ "2026-07-01", 1.3 ] ], "key": "inventory_sales", "group": "realisierung", "group_label": "Realisierung und Absatz" }, "financial_profit_share": { "label": "Anteil des Finanzsektors an den Unternehmensgewinnen", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 23.69, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 68.6, "pressure": 68.6, "zscore": 0.52, "tau": 0.579, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2020-04-01", "change_10y": -4.05, "change_30y": 0.89, "note": "Wie viel des Gesamtgewinns nicht aus Produktion stammt, sondern aus der Umverteilung bestehender Anspr\u00fcche. Als Differenz von Gesamt- und Nichtfinanzgewinnen gerechnet, weil die direkte BEA-Reihe erst 2001 beginnt \u2014 so reicht die Reihe bis 1947.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED ((A445RC1Q027SBEA \u2212 A463RC1Q027SBEA) \u00f7 A445RC1Q027SBEA)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 8.4342 ], [ "1947-07-01", 7.0672 ], [ "1948-04-01", 7.9021 ], [ "1948-10-01", 9.068 ], [ "1949-07-01", 10.8446 ], [ "1950-04-01", 9.2273 ], [ "1950-10-01", 7.7064 ], [ "1951-07-01", 8.8113 ], [ "1952-04-01", 11.0679 ], [ "1952-10-01", 11.0572 ], [ "1953-07-01", 11.7995 ], [ "1954-04-01", 13.3645 ], [ "1954-10-01", 11.9605 ], [ "1955-07-01", 10.6441 ], [ "1956-04-01", 11.3583 ], [ "1956-10-01", 11.84 ], [ "1957-07-01", 12.5065 ], [ "1958-04-01", 15.8881 ], [ "1958-10-01", 13.2778 ], [ "1959-07-01", 14.8158 ], [ "1960-04-01", 16.0126 ], [ "1960-10-01", 17.0113 ], [ "1961-07-01", 14.9298 ], [ "1962-01-01", 13.9695 ], [ "1962-10-01", 13.4633 ], [ "1963-07-01", 11.9432 ], [ "1964-01-01", 11.7873 ], [ "1964-10-01", 11.9008 ], [ "1965-07-01", 10.8146 ], [ "1966-01-01", 11.3579 ], [ "1966-10-01", 11.547 ], [ "1967-07-01", 12.4994 ], [ "1968-01-01", 13.3494 ], [ "1968-10-01", 12.9961 ], [ "1969-07-01", 14.6432 ], [ "1970-01-01", 18.1287 ], [ "1970-10-01", 22.1005 ], [ "1971-07-01", 19.6853 ], [ "1972-01-01", 18.6054 ], [ "1972-10-01", 17.1222 ], [ "1973-07-01", 18.1976 ], [ "1974-01-01", 18.7352 ], [ "1974-10-01", 19.6433 ], [ "1975-04-01", 16.8625 ], [ "1976-01-01", 14.4476 ], [ "1976-10-01", 16.9591 ], [ "1977-04-01", 16.5061 ], [ "1978-01-01", 19.3966 ], [ "1978-10-01", 18.303 ], [ "1979-04-01", 19.1302 ], [ "1980-01-01", 17.8416 ], [ "1980-10-01", 15.5319 ], [ "1981-04-01", 12.7942 ], [ "1982-01-01", 9.3081 ], [ "1982-10-01", 14.348 ], [ "1983-04-01", 14.4561 ], [ "1984-01-01", 10.631 ], [ "1984-10-01", 11.0042 ], [ "1985-04-01", 13.8622 ], [ "1986-01-01", 17.7818 ], [ "1986-10-01", 19.4079 ], [ "1987-04-01", 20.0617 ], [ "1988-01-01", 17.047 ], [ "1988-07-01", 19.2 ], [ "1989-04-01", 21.9494 ], [ "1990-01-01", 23.0068 ], [ "1990-07-01", 24.4008 ], [ "1991-04-01", 27.5616 ], [ "1992-01-01", 31.4992 ], [ "1992-07-01", 29.6794 ], [ "1993-04-01", 24.4024 ], [ "1994-01-01", 23.133 ], [ "1994-07-01", 22.7749 ], [ "1995-04-01", 23.6645 ], [ "1996-01-01", 22.6731 ], [ "1996-07-01", 22.4578 ], [ "1997-04-01", 23.778 ], [ "1998-01-01", 23.8875 ], [ "1998-07-01", 22.4962 ], [ "1999-04-01", 24.4561 ], [ "2000-01-01", 28.1846 ], [ "2000-07-01", 28.9609 ], [ "2001-04-01", 35.8203 ], [ "2001-10-01", 42.8367 ], [ "2002-07-01", 37.9055 ], [ "2003-04-01", 35.5573 ], [ "2003-10-01", 34.2492 ], [ "2004-07-01", 31.2407 ], [ "2005-04-01", 29.0935 ], [ "2005-10-01", 28.7253 ], [ "2006-07-01", 26.5604 ], [ "2007-04-01", 25.1841 ], [ "2007-10-01", 20.8471 ], [ "2008-07-01", 6.8445 ], [ "2009-04-01", 34.819 ], [ "2009-10-01", 32.5995 ], [ "2010-07-01", 28.3022 ], [ "2011-04-01", 25.6393 ], [ "2011-10-01", 28.1597 ], [ "2012-07-01", 29.5813 ], [ "2013-04-01", 24.5399 ], [ "2013-10-01", 28.0246 ], [ "2014-07-01", 24.7775 ], [ "2015-01-01", 27.0657 ], [ "2015-10-01", 25.3829 ], [ "2016-07-01", 28.239 ], [ "2017-01-01", 26.4562 ], [ "2017-10-01", 26.0458 ], [ "2018-07-01", 24.561 ], [ "2019-01-01", 28.7861 ], [ "2019-10-01", 26.5738 ], [ "2020-07-01", 20.9962 ], [ "2021-01-01", 21.4565 ], [ "2021-10-01", 22.7151 ], [ "2022-07-01", 20.4415 ], [ "2023-01-01", 19.7142 ], [ "2023-10-01", 17.5992 ], [ "2024-07-01", 19.6799 ], [ "2025-01-01", 22.8678 ], [ "2025-10-01", 25.1728 ], [ "2026-04-01", 23.69 ] ], "key": "financial_profit_share", "group": "finanzialisierung", "group_label": "Finanzialisierung" }, "total_debt_gdp": { "label": "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 257.4, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1946-10-01", "n": 304, "percentile": 92.1, "pressure": 92.1, "zscore": 1.56, "tau": 0.822, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2025-01-01", "change_10y": 7.2, "change_30y": 72.4, "note": "Alle Kreditmarktschulden der Volkswirtschaft. Der Kern der Fiat-Erweiterung: Was nicht durch L\u00f6hne nachgefragt werden kann, wird durch Kredit vorfinanziert \u2014 und dieser Kredit ist der Anspruch auf k\u00fcnftige Wertsch\u00f6pfung, die erst noch erbracht werden muss.", "source": "Fed Z.1 \u00fcber FRED (TCMDODNS \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1946-10-01", 141.4535 ], [ "1948-10-01", 131.6565 ], [ "1951-10-01", 121.946 ], [ "1952-04-01", 123.5169 ], [ "1953-01-01", 121.4032 ], [ "1953-07-01", 125.3613 ], [ "1954-04-01", 130.2441 ], [ "1954-10-01", 131.4644 ], [ "1955-07-01", 127.5431 ], [ "1956-01-01", 128.5954 ], [ "1956-10-01", 128.2863 ], [ "1957-04-01", 126.6687 ], [ "1958-01-01", 132.5666 ], [ "1958-07-01", 131.1985 ], [ "1959-04-01", 129.4838 ], [ "1960-01-01", 130.6853 ], [ "1960-07-01", 133.681 ], [ "1961-04-01", 136.2152 ], [ "1961-10-01", 135.8215 ], [ "1962-07-01", 134.8395 ], [ "1963-01-01", 136.7729 ], [ "1963-10-01", 137.7222 ], [ "1964-04-01", 136.5768 ], [ "1965-01-01", 136.0541 ], [ "1965-07-01", 134.541 ], [ "1966-04-01", 132.7328 ], [ "1966-10-01", 132.3329 ], [ "1967-07-01", 132.8191 ], [ "1968-01-01", 131.8296 ], [ "1968-10-01", 132.2705 ], [ "1969-07-01", 129.6901 ], [ "1970-01-01", 130.8092 ], [ "1970-10-01", 133.9719 ], [ "1971-04-01", 131.178 ], [ "1972-01-01", 132.3691 ], [ "1972-07-01", 132.174 ], [ "1973-04-01", 131.4672 ], [ "1973-10-01", 132.0699 ], [ "1974-07-01", 133.5264 ], [ "1975-01-01", 133.4868 ], [ "1975-10-01", 131.7003 ], [ "1976-04-01", 131.6824 ], [ "1977-01-01", 132.3323 ], [ "1977-07-01", 132.2668 ], [ "1978-04-01", 132.2547 ], [ "1979-01-01", 133.4151 ], [ "1979-07-01", 134.6161 ], [ "1980-04-01", 137.0686 ], [ "1980-10-01", 135.8049 ], [ "1981-07-01", 133.552 ], [ "1982-01-01", 139.0079 ], [ "1982-10-01", 144.1092 ], [ "1983-04-01", 144.2562 ], [ "1984-01-01", 145.4993 ], [ "1984-07-01", 149.4928 ], [ "1985-04-01", 157.6282 ], [ "1985-10-01", 166.2785 ], [ "1986-07-01", 173.209 ], [ "1987-01-01", 177.5635 ], [ "1987-10-01", 180.0222 ], [ "1988-07-01", 181.5158 ], [ "1989-01-01", 181.2438 ], [ "1989-10-01", 184.1696 ], [ "1990-04-01", 183.6869 ], [ "1991-01-01", 188.3581 ], [ "1991-07-01", 187.6861 ], [ "1992-04-01", 186.4271 ], [ "1992-10-01", 185.2691 ], [ "1993-07-01", 187.028 ], [ "1994-01-01", 186.2421 ], [ "1994-10-01", 185.0805 ], [ "1995-04-01", 186.6096 ], [ "1996-01-01", 186.7447 ], [ "1996-07-01", 185.0413 ], [ "1997-04-01", 182.9825 ], [ "1998-01-01", 184.9441 ], [ "1998-07-01", 185.4172 ], [ "1999-04-01", 186.3104 ], [ "1999-10-01", 186.471 ], [ "2000-07-01", 185.0226 ], [ "2001-01-01", 186.1768 ], [ "2001-10-01", 191.6327 ], [ "2002-04-01", 192.6186 ], [ "2003-01-01", 197.9172 ], [ "2003-07-01", 199.5857 ], [ "2004-04-01", 208.7066 ], [ "2004-10-01", 211.3742 ], [ "2005-07-01", 213.9004 ], [ "2006-01-01", 216.7216 ], [ "2006-10-01", 222.4953 ], [ "2007-07-01", 227.1126 ], [ "2008-01-01", 233.0957 ], [ "2008-10-01", 243.7616 ], [ "2009-04-01", 251.5017 ], [ "2010-01-01", 249.9052 ], [ "2010-07-01", 247.7136 ], [ "2011-04-01", 245.8566 ], [ "2011-10-01", 247.4988 ], [ "2012-07-01", 247.4115 ], [ "2013-01-01", 247.4882 ], [ "2013-10-01", 247.0327 ], [ "2014-04-01", 245.9879 ], [ "2015-01-01", 245.7495 ], [ "2015-07-01", 245.6743 ], [ "2016-04-01", 250.1966 ], [ "2017-01-01", 250.3113 ], [ "2017-07-01", 250.0616 ], [ "2018-04-01", 249.8138 ], [ "2018-10-01", 252.678 ], [ "2019-07-01", 251.4562 ], [ "2020-01-01", 261.0673 ], [ "2020-10-01", 281.3247 ], [ "2021-04-01", 274.0204 ], [ "2022-01-01", 269.7385 ], [ "2022-07-01", 265.2196 ], [ "2023-04-01", 261.7229 ], [ "2023-10-01", 260.9703 ], [ "2024-07-01", 259.7248 ], [ "2025-01-01", 259.5528 ], [ "2025-10-01", 260.0262 ], [ "2026-04-01", 257.4193 ] ], "key": "total_debt_gdp", "group": "finanzialisierung", "group_label": "Finanzialisierung" }, "buffett_indicator": { "label": "Aktienmarktwert \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 255.0, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1946-10-01", "n": 304, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 100.0, "zscore": 3.6, "tau": 0.568, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 120.1, "change_30y": 167.5, "note": "Marktwert der Unternehmensanteile gegen die reale Wertsch\u00f6pfung. Misst den Abstand zwischen dem, was Verm\u00f6genstitel versprechen, und dem, was die Produktion einl\u00f6sen kann. Aus den Flow-of-Funds-Daten statt aus einem Aktienindex gerechnet \u2014 reicht dadurch bis 1945 zur\u00fcck.", "source": "Fed Z.1 \u00fcber FRED (NCBEILQ027S \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1946-10-01", 40.015 ], [ "1948-10-01", 33.5779 ], [ "1951-10-01", 41.4481 ], [ "1952-04-01", 43.6548 ], [ "1953-01-01", 36.871 ], [ "1953-07-01", 33.048 ], [ "1954-04-01", 44.6881 ], [ "1954-10-01", 48.7424 ], [ "1955-07-01", 56.0166 ], [ "1956-01-01", 59.6583 ], [ "1956-10-01", 58.2833 ], [ "1957-04-01", 57.852 ], [ "1958-01-01", 55.8923 ], [ "1958-07-01", 63.9182 ], [ "1959-04-01", 66.287 ], [ "1960-01-01", 62.5286 ], [ "1960-07-01", 58.8861 ], [ "1961-04-01", 74.0813 ], [ "1961-10-01", 75.3815 ], [ "1962-07-01", 56.7073 ], [ "1963-01-01", 72.0607 ], [ "1963-10-01", 71.2268 ], [ "1964-04-01", 75.3077 ], [ "1965-01-01", 77.9941 ], [ "1965-07-01", 78.4612 ], [ "1966-04-01", 72.1818 ], [ "1966-10-01", 65.7494 ], [ "1967-07-01", 78.4284 ], [ "1968-01-01", 71.7774 ], [ "1968-10-01", 87.0996 ], [ "1969-07-01", 72.2317 ], [ "1970-01-01", 64.4743 ], [ "1970-10-01", 64.5303 ], [ "1971-04-01", 67.3425 ], [ "1972-01-01", 70.878 ], [ "1972-07-01", 69.2494 ], [ "1973-04-01", 63.9255 ], [ "1973-10-01", 54.8379 ], [ "1974-07-01", 34.6471 ], [ "1975-01-01", 42.3853 ], [ "1975-10-01", 42.8473 ], [ "1976-04-01", 47.9261 ], [ "1977-01-01", 43.1002 ], [ "1977-07-01", 39.9018 ], [ "1978-04-01", 35.735 ], [ "1979-01-01", 36.0521 ], [ "1979-07-01", 36.7812 ], [ "1980-04-01", 38.4867 ], [ "1980-10-01", 45.1012 ], [ "1981-07-01", 34.8444 ], [ "1982-01-01", 33.3029 ], [ "1982-10-01", 40.7481 ], [ "1983-04-01", 48.5272 ], [ "1984-01-01", 39.0938 ], [ "1984-07-01", 37.7851 ], [ "1985-04-01", 40.6077 ], [ "1985-10-01", 43.1501 ], [ "1986-07-01", 44.1151 ], [ "1987-01-01", 57.3754 ], [ "1987-10-01", 45.6805 ], [ "1988-07-01", 46.5759 ], [ "1989-01-01", 48.4582 ], [ "1989-10-01", 54.6351 ], [ "1990-04-01", 52.6214 ], [ "1991-01-01", 56.302 ], [ "1991-07-01", 57.0103 ], [ "1992-04-01", 59.9096 ], [ "1992-10-01", 65.4002 ], [ "1993-07-01", 67.5112 ], [ "1994-01-01", 65.4719 ], [ "1994-10-01", 64.8074 ], [ "1995-04-01", 74.3055 ], [ "1996-01-01", 85.5142 ], [ "1996-07-01", 87.321 ], [ "1997-04-01", 100.9044 ], [ "1998-01-01", 121.6598 ], [ "1998-07-01", 108.6832 ], [ "1999-04-01", 138.6726 ], [ "1999-10-01", 155.4068 ], [ "2000-07-01", 147.9009 ], [ "2001-01-01", 112.7087 ], [ "2001-10-01", 112.0327 ], [ "2002-04-01", 95.6836 ], [ "2003-01-01", 80.7449 ], [ "2003-07-01", 93.0741 ], [ "2004-04-01", 104.3255 ], [ "2004-10-01", 107.8977 ], [ "2005-07-01", 108.2269 ], [ "2006-01-01", 112.0151 ], [ "2006-10-01", 114.1279 ], [ "2007-07-01", 120.6359 ], [ "2008-01-01", 106.112 ], [ "2008-10-01", 75.5611 ], [ "2009-04-01", 78.9308 ], [ "2010-01-01", 96.3237 ], [ "2010-07-01", 93.5331 ], [ "2011-04-01", 106.137 ], [ "2011-10-01", 98.4363 ], [ "2012-07-01", 108.1154 ], [ "2013-01-01", 117.9483 ], [ "2013-10-01", 131.9315 ], [ "2014-04-01", 139.8951 ], [ "2015-01-01", 141.1228 ], [ "2015-07-01", 126.5062 ], [ "2016-04-01", 134.9243 ], [ "2017-01-01", 141.3694 ], [ "2017-07-01", 144.4984 ], [ "2018-04-01", 149.8621 ], [ "2018-10-01", 133.5075 ], [ "2019-07-01", 150.9526 ], [ "2020-01-01", 128.7605 ], [ "2020-10-01", 198.2525 ], [ "2021-04-01", 215.407 ], [ "2022-01-01", 202.8673 ], [ "2022-07-01", 153.2817 ], [ "2023-04-01", 177.7205 ], [ "2023-10-01", 181.812 ], [ "2024-07-01", 207.5877 ], [ "2025-01-01", 196.966 ], [ "2025-10-01", 228.8275 ], [ "2026-04-01", 255.0464 ] ], "key": "buffett_indicator", "group": "finanzialisierung", "group_label": "Finanzialisierung" }, "prod_wage_gap": { "label": "Produktivit\u00e4ts-Lohn-Schere", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "Index", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 109.9, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 100.0, "zscore": 2.18, "tau": 0.875, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 10.1, "change_30y": 27.8, "note": "Arbeitsproduktivit\u00e4t geteilt durch reale Stundenverg\u00fctung, beide auf derselben Basis. Steigt der Wert, w\u00e4chst die Produktion pro Stunde schneller als das, was f\u00fcr diese Stunde gezahlt wird \u2014 bei Marx die Rate des Mehrwerts.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (OPHNFB \u00f7 COMPRNFB)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 64.724 ], [ "1947-07-01", 63.1565 ], [ "1948-04-01", 66.2392 ], [ "1948-10-01", 65.1167 ], [ "1949-07-01", 66.0806 ], [ "1950-04-01", 65.9903 ], [ "1950-10-01", 67.1185 ], [ "1951-07-01", 67.9445 ], [ "1952-04-01", 67.2901 ], [ "1952-10-01", 66.4018 ], [ "1953-07-01", 65.5471 ], [ "1954-04-01", 64.8193 ], [ "1954-10-01", 65.1862 ], [ "1955-07-01", 64.8297 ], [ "1956-04-01", 61.9981 ], [ "1956-10-01", 61.8322 ], [ "1957-07-01", 62.4308 ], [ "1958-04-01", 63.022 ], [ "1958-10-01", 63.5907 ], [ "1959-07-01", 63.3894 ], [ "1960-04-01", 62.13 ], [ "1960-10-01", 61.4878 ], [ "1961-07-01", 63.4233 ], [ "1962-01-01", 63.8655 ], [ "1962-10-01", 64.2562 ], [ "1963-07-01", 65.6056 ], [ "1964-01-01", 65.8828 ], [ "1964-10-01", 64.7721 ], [ "1965-07-01", 66.7464 ], [ "1966-01-01", 67.6398 ], [ "1966-10-01", 66.6245 ], [ "1967-07-01", 66.1215 ], [ "1968-01-01", 66.4924 ], [ "1968-10-01", 65.8839 ], [ "1969-07-01", 65.553 ], [ "1970-01-01", 65.0485 ], [ "1970-10-01", 66.2366 ], [ "1971-07-01", 67.5896 ], [ "1972-01-01", 66.7801 ], [ "1972-10-01", 67.7761 ], [ "1973-07-01", 68.6031 ], [ "1974-01-01", 68.8256 ], [ "1974-10-01", 68.6991 ], [ "1975-04-01", 69.1081 ], [ "1976-01-01", 70.8257 ], [ "1976-10-01", 70.3409 ], [ "1977-04-01", 70.8332 ], [ "1978-01-01", 69.3841 ], [ "1978-10-01", 71.1535 ], [ "1979-04-01", 70.4703 ], [ "1980-01-01", 71.1813 ], [ "1980-10-01", 70.9735 ], [ "1981-04-01", 71.4255 ], [ "1982-01-01", 69.9283 ], [ "1982-10-01", 70.7639 ], [ "1983-04-01", 73.1527 ], [ "1984-01-01", 74.4087 ], [ "1984-10-01", 74.6391 ], [ "1985-04-01", 74.7609 ], [ "1986-01-01", 74.8556 ], [ "1986-10-01", 73.3434 ], [ "1987-04-01", 74.2498 ], [ "1988-01-01", 74.1621 ], [ "1988-07-01", 74.3427 ], [ "1989-04-01", 76.2726 ], [ "1990-01-01", 76.5448 ], [ "1990-07-01", 76.7811 ], [ "1991-04-01", 76.9182 ], [ "1992-01-01", 76.9613 ], [ "1992-07-01", 77.7149 ], [ "1993-04-01", 78.1759 ], [ "1994-01-01", 79.9815 ], [ "1994-07-01", 79.9946 ], [ "1995-04-01", 80.9808 ], [ "1996-01-01", 81.3311 ], [ "1996-07-01", 82.1612 ], [ "1997-04-01", 82.4226 ], [ "1998-01-01", 81.4668 ], [ "1998-07-01", 81.2406 ], [ "1999-04-01", 82.2816 ], [ "2000-01-01", 80.7973 ], [ "2000-07-01", 81.9488 ], [ "2001-04-01", 83.0708 ], [ "2001-10-01", 83.8652 ], [ "2002-07-01", 86.2655 ], [ "2003-04-01", 87.164 ], [ "2003-10-01", 88.3497 ], [ "2004-07-01", 88.2961 ], [ "2005-04-01", 90.0991 ], [ "2005-10-01", 91.2095 ], [ "2006-07-01", 91.6051 ], [ "2007-04-01", 90.894 ], [ "2007-10-01", 92.5978 ], [ "2008-07-01", 94.9533 ], [ "2009-04-01", 94.2102 ], [ "2009-10-01", 97.3724 ], [ "2010-07-01", 98.0385 ], [ "2011-04-01", 99.3386 ], [ "2011-10-01", 101.4401 ], [ "2012-07-01", 100.536 ], [ "2013-04-01", 99.7004 ], [ "2013-10-01", 101.7348 ], [ "2014-07-01", 101.9702 ], [ "2015-01-01", 99.0856 ], [ "2015-10-01", 99.0128 ], [ "2016-07-01", 100.1839 ], [ "2017-01-01", 100.2824 ], [ "2017-10-01", 100.0307 ], [ "2018-07-01", 100.3781 ], [ "2019-01-01", 99.0189 ], [ "2019-10-01", 101.7119 ], [ "2020-07-01", 101.7022 ], [ "2021-01-01", 100.7543 ], [ "2021-10-01", 102.2488 ], [ "2022-07-01", 103.8583 ], [ "2023-01-01", 105.7771 ], [ "2023-10-01", 106.9426 ], [ "2024-07-01", 106.9644 ], [ "2025-01-01", 106.1408 ], [ "2025-10-01", 108.0227 ], [ "2026-04-01", 109.9077 ] ], "key": "prod_wage_gap", "group": "profit", "group_label": "Profitabilit\u00e4t" }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "label": "Dollar-Anteil an den Weltw\u00e4hrungsreserven", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.6, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 56.7, "as_of": "2026-06-01", "start": "1999-03-01", "n": 110, "percentile": 2.7, "pressure": 97.3, "zscore": 1.83, "tau": -0.714, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -7.3, "change_30y": null, "note": "Die h\u00e4rteste \u00f6ffentlich verf\u00fcgbare Zahl zur Frage der Dollarhegemonie: welchen Anteil ihrer zugeordneten Devisenreserven die Zentralbanken der Welt im Dollar halten. Zu beachten: Der IWF hat im Dezember 2025 den nicht zugeordneten Anteil r\u00fcckwirkend herausgerechnet, Vergleiche mit \u00e4lteren Ver\u00f6ffentlichungen sind daher nicht deckungsgleich.", "source": "IWF COFER (SDMX-Schnittstelle, ab 1999)", "spark": [ [ "1999-03-01", 71.1889 ], [ "1999-06-01", 72.1259 ], [ "1999-09-01", 70.6848 ], [ "1999-12-01", 71.0139 ], [ "2000-03-01", 70.7966 ], [ "2000-06-01", 70.6757 ], [ "2000-09-01", 70.6432 ], [ "2000-12-01", 69.7403 ], [ "2001-03-01", 70.6501 ], [ "2001-06-01", 71.4003 ], [ "2001-09-01", 70.7634 ], [ "2001-12-01", 70.7837 ], [ "2002-03-01", 70.5138 ], [ "2002-06-01", 67.8056 ], [ "2002-09-01", 66.6937 ], [ "2002-12-01", 64.9392 ], [ "2003-03-01", 64.6162 ], [ "2003-06-01", 64.6519 ], [ "2003-09-01", 64.9082 ], [ "2003-12-01", 63.5349 ], [ "2004-03-01", 64.6672 ], [ "2004-06-01", 64.8549 ], [ "2004-09-01", 64.4403 ], [ "2004-12-01", 63.3229 ], [ "2005-03-01", 64.2052 ], [ "2005-06-01", 64.6829 ], [ "2005-09-01", 65.0115 ], [ "2005-12-01", 64.888 ], [ "2006-03-01", 64.8836 ], [ "2006-06-01", 64.1111 ], [ "2006-09-01", 64.5902 ], [ "2006-12-01", 63.6673 ], [ "2007-03-01", 63.6562 ], [ "2007-06-01", 63.3986 ], [ "2007-09-01", 62.7131 ], [ "2007-12-01", 62.6016 ], [ "2008-03-01", 63.0561 ], [ "2008-06-01", 62.696 ], [ "2008-09-01", 63.9349 ], [ "2008-12-01", 62.8681 ], [ "2009-03-01", 63.8025 ], [ "2009-06-01", 62.3523 ], [ "2009-09-01", 61.3198 ], [ "2009-12-01", 62.1878 ], [ "2010-03-01", 61.7866 ], [ "2010-06-01", 62.5629 ], [ "2010-09-01", 61.8217 ], [ "2010-12-01", 61.9359 ], [ "2011-03-01", 61.8158 ], [ "2011-06-01", 61.5511 ], [ "2011-09-01", 62.2451 ], [ "2011-12-01", 62.5146 ], [ "2012-03-01", 61.8726 ], [ "2012-06-01", 62.1503 ], [ "2012-09-01", 61.805 ], [ "2012-12-01", 61.8442 ], [ "2013-03-01", 62.0794 ], [ "2013-06-01", 62.0375 ], [ "2013-09-01", 61.7421 ], [ "2013-12-01", 61.7164 ], [ "2014-03-01", 61.3171 ], [ "2014-06-01", 61.3453 ], [ "2014-09-01", 62.3857 ], [ "2014-12-01", 62.6819 ], [ "2015-03-01", 63.5494 ], [ "2015-06-01", 63.472 ], [ "2015-09-01", 64.2371 ], [ "2015-12-01", 64.154 ], [ "2016-03-01", 63.9292 ], [ "2016-06-01", 64.0053 ], [ "2016-09-01", 63.7929 ], [ "2016-12-01", 64.68 ], [ "2017-03-01", 64.2195 ], [ "2017-06-01", 63.5143 ], [ "2017-09-01", 63.3105 ], [ "2017-12-01", 62.7073 ], [ "2018-03-01", 62.8976 ], [ "2018-06-01", 62.6152 ], [ "2018-09-01", 62.349 ], [ "2018-12-01", 62.065 ], [ "2019-03-01", 62.2066 ], [ "2019-06-01", 61.7317 ], [ "2019-09-01", 62.0501 ], [ "2019-12-01", 61.3203 ], [ "2020-03-01", 62.3212 ], [ "2020-06-01", 61.8753 ], [ "2020-09-01", 61.0066 ], [ "2020-12-01", 59.5283 ], [ "2021-03-01", 60.0629 ], [ "2021-06-01", 59.846 ], [ "2021-09-01", 59.8715 ], [ "2021-12-01", 59.4017 ], [ "2022-03-01", 59.4166 ], [ "2022-06-01", 59.9943 ], [ "2022-09-01", 60.4326 ], [ "2022-12-01", 58.9507 ], [ "2023-03-01", 60.1231 ], [ "2023-06-01", 59.8181 ], [ "2023-09-01", 59.6898 ], [ "2023-12-01", 58.9796 ], [ "2024-03-01", 59.5114 ], [ "2024-06-01", 58.864 ], [ "2024-09-01", 57.8441 ], [ "2024-12-01", 58.4082 ], [ "2025-03-01", 58.3878 ], [ "2025-06-01", 56.9453 ], [ "2025-09-01", 56.6068 ], [ "2025-12-01", 56.5216 ], [ "2026-03-01", 57.179 ], [ "2026-06-01", 56.7048 ] ], "key": "dollar_reserve_share", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "foreign_holdings": { "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 23.95, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1970-01-01", "n": 225, "percentile": 66.7, "pressure": 33.3, "zscore": -0.51, "tau": 0.679, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2024-10-01", "change_10y": -8.67, "change_30y": 6.2, "note": "Wie viel der US-Staatsschuld das Ausland finanziert. Ein fallender Anteil hei\u00dft: Die Schuld muss zunehmend im Inland und von der Notenbank untergebracht werden.", "source": "Treasury/Fed \u00fcber FRED (FDHBFIN \u00f7 GFDEBTN)", "spark": [ [ "1970-01-01", 3.3333 ], [ "1970-04-01", 3.7828 ], [ "1970-10-01", 5.0622 ], [ "1971-04-01", 8.0039 ], [ "1971-10-01", 10.8457 ], [ "1972-04-01", 11.5375 ], [ "1972-10-01", 12.1301 ], [ "1973-04-01", 12.9888 ], [ "1973-10-01", 11.6613 ], [ "1974-01-01", 11.4213 ], [ "1974-07-01", 11.6311 ], [ "1975-01-01", 12.7536 ], [ "1975-07-01", 11.8306 ], [ "1976-01-01", 11.3407 ], [ "1976-07-01", 11.7536 ], [ "1977-01-01", 12.6568 ], [ "1977-07-01", 13.6655 ], [ "1977-10-01", 15.2446 ], [ "1978-04-01", 15.9541 ], [ "1978-10-01", 16.865 ], [ "1979-04-01", 14.8463 ], [ "1979-10-01", 14.0809 ], [ "1980-04-01", 13.4683 ], [ "1980-10-01", 13.9431 ], [ "1981-04-01", 14.0655 ], [ "1981-07-01", 13.0981 ], [ "1982-01-01", 12.8239 ], [ "1982-07-01", 12.3114 ], [ "1983-01-01", 12.5513 ], [ "1983-07-01", 11.6249 ], [ "1984-01-01", 11.3613 ], [ "1984-07-01", 11.1686 ], [ "1985-01-01", 11.6675 ], [ "1985-04-01", 12.0475 ], [ "1985-10-01", 11.5522 ], [ "1986-04-01", 12.1835 ], [ "1986-10-01", 11.8925 ], [ "1987-04-01", 12.1725 ], [ "1987-10-01", 12.3246 ], [ "1988-04-01", 13.5576 ], [ "1988-10-01", 13.4928 ], [ "1989-01-01", 13.6269 ], [ "1989-07-01", 13.7116 ], [ "1990-01-01", 14.5939 ], [ "1990-07-01", 14.3444 ], [ "1991-01-01", 14.1984 ], [ "1991-07-01", 13.8133 ], [ "1992-01-01", 13.8202 ], [ "1992-07-01", 13.8463 ], [ "1992-10-01", 13.8065 ], [ "1993-04-01", 13.7134 ], [ "1993-10-01", 14.3374 ], [ "1994-04-01", 14.2042 ], [ "1994-10-01", 13.9016 ], [ "1995-04-01", 15.3998 ], [ "1995-10-01", 16.742 ], [ "1996-04-01", 18.0137 ], [ "1996-07-01", 19.0131 ], [ "1997-01-01", 21.5132 ], [ "1997-07-01", 22.7317 ], [ "1998-01-01", 22.5623 ], [ "1998-07-01", 22.1527 ], [ "1999-01-01", 22.5121 ], [ "1999-07-01", 22.6545 ], [ "2000-01-01", 18.7931 ], [ "2000-04-01", 18.6548 ], [ "2000-10-01", 17.9294 ], [ "2001-04-01", 17.1701 ], [ "2001-10-01", 17.5 ], [ "2002-04-01", 18.3319 ], [ "2002-10-01", 19.289 ], [ "2003-04-01", 20.5678 ], [ "2003-10-01", 21.7649 ], [ "2004-01-01", 23.4187 ], [ "2004-07-01", 24.3188 ], [ "2005-01-01", 25.0998 ], [ "2005-07-01", 24.3296 ], [ "2006-01-01", 24.8723 ], [ "2006-07-01", 23.8075 ], [ "2007-01-01", 24.8009 ], [ "2007-07-01", 24.8156 ], [ "2007-10-01", 25.4974 ], [ "2008-04-01", 27.2587 ], [ "2008-10-01", 28.7594 ], [ "2009-04-01", 29.9759 ], [ "2009-10-01", 29.9325 ], [ "2010-04-01", 30.8291 ], [ "2010-10-01", 31.6259 ], [ "2011-04-01", 32.7029 ], [ "2011-07-01", 33.2115 ], [ "2012-01-01", 32.9676 ], [ "2012-07-01", 34.0845 ], [ "2013-01-01", 34.1355 ], [ "2013-07-01", 33.7719 ], [ "2014-01-01", 33.7948 ], [ "2014-07-01", 34.0506 ], [ "2015-01-01", 34.005 ], [ "2015-04-01", 33.9412 ], [ "2015-10-01", 32.4709 ], [ "2016-04-01", 32.3972 ], [ "2016-10-01", 30.0488 ], [ "2017-04-01", 31.0004 ], [ "2017-10-01", 30.3097 ], [ "2018-04-01", 29.37 ], [ "2018-10-01", 28.5341 ], [ "2019-01-01", 29.39 ], [ "2019-07-01", 30.474 ], [ "2020-01-01", 29.924 ], [ "2020-07-01", 26.2353 ], [ "2021-01-01", 25.0183 ], [ "2021-07-01", 26.631 ], [ "2022-01-01", 25.013 ], [ "2022-07-01", 23.4457 ], [ "2022-10-01", 22.8987 ], [ "2023-04-01", 23.3921 ], [ "2023-10-01", 23.3519 ], [ "2024-04-01", 23.8269 ], [ "2024-10-01", 23.798 ], [ "2025-04-01", 25.1125 ], [ "2025-10-01", 24.0679 ], [ "2026-01-01", 23.947 ] ], "key": "foreign_holdings", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "fed_monetization": { "label": "Notenbankanteil an der Staatsschuld", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 11.57, "as_of": "2026-10-07", "start": "2002-12-18", "n": 1243, "percentile": 59.2, "pressure": 59.2, "zscore": 0.13, "tau": 0.415, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-05-14", "change_10y": -0.76, "change_30y": null, "note": "Welchen Teil der eigenen Staatsschuld die Zentralbank h\u00e4lt. Der Kern der Fiat-Frage: Wo dieser Anteil steigt, w\u00e4hrend der Auslandsanteil f\u00e4llt, finanziert sich der Staat zunehmend bei sich selbst.", "source": "Fed \u00fcber FRED (TREAST \u00f7 GFDEBTN)", "spark": [ [ "2002-12-18", 9.7418 ], [ "2003-02-26", 9.535 ], [ "2003-05-07", 9.7085 ], [ "2003-07-23", 9.624 ], [ "2003-10-01", 9.3768 ], [ "2003-12-10", 9.3339 ], [ "2004-02-25", 9.2315 ], [ "2004-05-05", 9.3178 ], [ "2004-07-14", 9.355 ], [ "2004-09-29", 9.197 ], [ "2004-12-08", 9.2205 ], [ "2005-02-16", 9.1605 ], [ "2005-05-04", 9.1798 ], [ "2005-07-13", 9.1357 ], [ "2005-09-28", 9.0091 ], [ "2005-12-07", 8.8898 ], [ "2006-02-15", 8.9752 ], [ "2006-05-03", 9.0226 ], [ "2006-07-12", 9.0092 ], [ "2006-09-20", 8.858 ], [ "2006-12-06", 8.7485 ], [ "2007-02-14", 8.8013 ], [ "2007-04-25", 8.8766 ], [ "2007-07-11", 8.777 ], [ "2007-09-19", 8.4475 ], [ "2007-11-28", 8.2616 ], [ "2008-02-13", 7.5588 ], [ "2008-04-23", 5.7802 ], [ "2008-07-09", 4.7777 ], [ "2008-09-17", 4.4846 ], [ "2008-11-26", 4.2816 ], [ "2009-02-11", 4.2677 ], [ "2009-04-22", 4.6337 ], [ "2009-07-01", 5.5708 ], [ "2009-09-16", 6.1716 ], [ "2009-11-25", 6.0794 ], [ "2010-02-03", 6.0801 ], [ "2010-04-21", 5.8834 ], [ "2010-06-30", 5.7293 ], [ "2010-09-08", 5.632 ], [ "2010-11-24", 6.3156 ], [ "2011-02-02", 7.9759 ], [ "2011-04-20", 9.7782 ], [ "2011-06-29", 10.9332 ], [ "2011-09-07", 10.8757 ], [ "2011-11-23", 10.6673 ], [ "2012-02-01", 10.6523 ], [ "2012-04-11", 10.6029 ], [ "2012-06-27", 10.3729 ], [ "2012-09-05", 10.034 ], [ "2012-11-14", 10.0825 ], [ "2013-01-30", 10.1963 ], [ "2013-04-10", 10.8403 ], [ "2013-06-19", 11.4631 ], [ "2013-09-04", 11.8517 ], [ "2013-11-13", 12.4564 ], [ "2014-01-29", 12.7444 ], [ "2014-04-09", 13.192 ], [ "2014-06-18", 13.4171 ], [ "2014-09-03", 13.4333 ], [ "2014-11-12", 13.5689 ], [ "2015-01-21", 13.5574 ], [ "2015-04-08", 13.5505 ], [ "2015-06-17", 13.558 ], [ "2015-08-26", 13.0105 ], [ "2015-11-11", 13.0097 ], [ "2016-01-20", 12.7766 ], [ "2016-04-06", 12.6994 ], [ "2016-06-15", 12.5784 ], [ "2016-08-24", 12.332 ], [ "2016-11-09", 12.3326 ], [ "2017-01-18", 12.4128 ], [ "2017-03-29", 12.4182 ], [ "2017-06-14", 12.1753 ], [ "2017-08-23", 12.03 ], [ "2017-11-01", 12.0034 ], [ "2018-01-17", 11.6029 ], [ "2018-03-28", 11.4408 ], [ "2018-06-06", 11.0516 ], [ "2018-08-22", 10.5785 ], [ "2018-10-31", 10.3322 ], [ "2019-01-16", 10.0791 ], [ "2019-03-27", 9.8786 ], [ "2019-06-05", 9.2863 ], [ "2019-08-21", 9.0034 ], [ "2019-10-30", 9.3766 ], [ "2020-01-08", 10.1091 ], [ "2020-03-25", 11.2488 ], [ "2020-06-03", 15.3435 ], [ "2020-08-12", 16.0328 ], [ "2020-10-28", 16.3155 ], [ "2021-01-06", 16.7046 ], [ "2021-03-17", 17.216 ], [ "2021-06-02", 18.0064 ], [ "2021-08-11", 18.6553 ], [ "2021-10-27", 18.6153 ], [ "2022-01-05", 18.622 ], [ "2022-03-16", 18.8372 ], [ "2022-06-01", 18.6582 ], [ "2022-08-10", 18.4959 ], [ "2022-10-19", 17.8613 ], [ "2023-01-04", 17.3491 ], [ "2023-03-15", 16.4818 ], [ "2023-05-24", 15.6629 ], [ "2023-08-09", 15.2209 ], [ "2023-10-18", 14.4507 ], [ "2023-12-27", 13.8509 ], [ "2024-03-13", 13.2892 ], [ "2024-05-22", 12.657 ], [ "2024-08-07", 12.4452 ], [ "2024-10-16", 12.0313 ], [ "2024-12-25", 11.8983 ], [ "2025-03-12", 11.7151 ], [ "2025-05-21", 11.195 ], [ "2025-07-30", 11.1774 ], [ "2025-10-15", 10.8954 ], [ "2025-12-24", 10.8218 ], [ "2026-03-04", 10.989 ], [ "2026-05-20", 11.2961 ], [ "2026-07-29", 11.4531 ], [ "2026-10-07", 11.5715 ] ], "key": "fed_monetization", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "purchasing_power": { "label": "Kaufkraft des Dollars (1913 = 100)", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.8, "unit": "Index", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 2.93, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1913-01-01", "n": 1363, "percentile": 0.1, "pressure": 99.9, "zscore": 1.06, "tau": -0.927, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -1.14, "change_30y": -3.3, "note": "Kehrwert des Verbraucherpreisindex seit Gr\u00fcndung der Federal Reserve. Methodisch ehrlich anzumerken: Diese Reihe f\u00e4llt per Konstruktion monoton und ist deshalb als Alarmsignal wertlos \u2014 sie steht hier als Ma\u00dfstab, nicht als Warnung.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (CPIAUCNS, ab 1913)", "spark": [ [ "1913-01-01", 100.0 ], [ "1913-12-01", 98.0 ], [ "1914-11-01", 96.0784 ], [ "1915-11-01", 95.1456 ], [ "1916-10-01", 86.7257 ], [ "1917-09-01", 73.6842 ], [ "1918-09-01", 62.4204 ], [ "1919-08-01", 55.3672 ], [ "1920-07-01", 47.1154 ], [ "1921-07-01", 55.3672 ], [ "1922-06-01", 58.6826 ], [ "1923-05-01", 57.9882 ], [ "1924-05-01", 57.6471 ], [ "1925-04-01", 56.9767 ], [ "1926-04-01", 54.7486 ], [ "1927-03-01", 56.6474 ], [ "1928-02-01", 57.3099 ], [ "1929-02-01", 57.3099 ], [ "1930-01-01", 57.3099 ], [ "1930-12-01", 60.8696 ], [ "1931-12-01", 67.1233 ], [ "1932-11-01", 74.2424 ], [ "1933-10-01", 74.2424 ], [ "1934-10-01", 72.5926 ], [ "1935-09-01", 71.5328 ], [ "1936-08-01", 70.0 ], [ "1937-08-01", 67.5862 ], [ "1938-07-01", 69.5035 ], [ "1939-07-01", 71.0145 ], [ "1940-06-01", 69.5035 ], [ "1941-05-01", 68.0556 ], [ "1942-05-01", 60.1227 ], [ "1943-04-01", 56.3218 ], [ "1944-03-01", 56.3218 ], [ "1945-03-01", 55.0562 ], [ "1946-02-01", 54.1436 ], [ "1947-01-01", 45.5814 ], [ "1948-01-01", 41.3502 ], [ "1948-12-01", 40.6639 ], [ "1949-11-01", 41.1765 ], [ "1950-11-01", 39.6761 ], [ "1951-10-01", 37.4046 ], [ "1952-10-01", 36.7041 ], [ "1953-09-01", 36.4312 ], [ "1954-08-01", 36.4312 ], [ "1955-08-01", 36.5672 ], [ "1956-07-01", 35.7664 ], [ "1957-06-01", 34.8754 ], [ "1958-06-01", 33.91 ], [ "1959-05-01", 33.7931 ], [ "1960-04-01", 33.2203 ], [ "1961-04-01", 32.8859 ], [ "1962-03-01", 32.5581 ], [ "1963-02-01", 32.2368 ], [ "1964-02-01", 31.7152 ], [ "1965-01-01", 31.4103 ], [ "1966-01-01", 30.8176 ], [ "1966-12-01", 29.7872 ], [ "1967-11-01", 28.9941 ], [ "1968-11-01", 27.6836 ], [ "1969-10-01", 26.2735 ], [ "1970-09-01", 25.0 ], [ "1971-09-01", 24.0196 ], [ "1972-08-01", 23.3333 ], [ "1973-07-01", 22.1219 ], [ "1974-07-01", 19.8381 ], [ "1975-06-01", 18.2836 ], [ "1976-06-01", 17.2535 ], [ "1977-05-01", 16.2521 ], [ "1978-04-01", 15.3365 ], [ "1979-04-01", 13.881 ], [ "1980-03-01", 12.2347 ], [ "1981-02-01", 11.149 ], [ "1982-02-01", 10.3594 ], [ "1983-01-01", 10.0204 ], [ "1983-12-01", 9.6742 ], [ "1984-12-01", 9.3067 ], [ "1985-11-01", 8.9908 ], [ "1986-10-01", 8.8849 ], [ "1987-10-01", 8.4996 ], [ "1988-09-01", 8.1803 ], [ "1989-09-01", 7.84 ], [ "1990-08-01", 7.4468 ], [ "1991-07-01", 7.1953 ], [ "1992-07-01", 6.9751 ], [ "1993-06-01", 6.7867 ], [ "1994-05-01", 6.6441 ], [ "1995-05-01", 6.4389 ], [ "1996-04-01", 6.27 ], [ "1997-03-01", 6.125 ], [ "1998-03-01", 6.0419 ], [ "1999-02-01", 5.9574 ], [ "2000-01-01", 5.8057 ], [ "2001-01-01", 5.5968 ], [ "2001-12-01", 5.5461 ], [ "2002-12-01", 5.4174 ], [ "2003-11-01", 5.3117 ], [ "2004-10-01", 5.1336 ], [ "2005-10-01", 4.9197 ], [ "2006-09-01", 4.83 ], [ "2007-08-01", 4.7134 ], [ "2008-08-01", 4.4731 ], [ "2009-07-01", 4.5507 ], [ "2010-06-01", 4.4961 ], [ "2011-06-01", 4.3416 ], [ "2012-05-01", 4.2643 ], [ "2013-04-01", 4.2145 ], [ "2014-04-01", 4.1338 ], [ "2015-03-01", 4.1504 ], [ "2016-03-01", 4.1154 ], [ "2017-02-01", 4.0229 ], [ "2018-01-01", 3.9537 ], [ "2019-01-01", 3.8933 ], [ "2019-12-01", 3.8136 ], [ "2020-11-01", 3.7659 ], [ "2021-11-01", 3.5258 ], [ "2022-10-01", 3.2885 ], [ "2023-09-01", 3.184 ], [ "2024-09-01", 3.1081 ], [ "2025-08-01", 3.0249 ], [ "2026-08-01", 2.9255 ] ], "key": "purchasing_power", "group": "geldwert", "group_label": "Geldwert" }, "gold_real": { "label": "Realer Goldpreis", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "USD, heutige Preise", "danger": "high", "decimals": 0, "raw": 4319.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "start": "1968-04-01", "n": 702, "percentile": 99.0, "pressure": 99.0, "zscore": 3.86, "tau": 0.416, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 2481.0, "change_30y": 3508.0, "note": "Goldpreis in heutiger Kaufkraft. Gold zahlt keine Zinsen und produziert nichts; ein hoher realer Preis ist der Preis, den Anleger daf\u00fcr zahlen, Verm\u00f6gen au\u00dferhalb jedes Schuldversprechens zu halten \u2014 das Misstrauensvotum gegen die Fiat-Ordnung in Zahlen. Die Reihe beginnt im April 1968: davor war der Preis bei 35 $ administriert (Bretton Woods, Goldpool), und ein festgesetzter Preis ist kein Votum des Marktes.", "source": "Weltbank, Pink Sheet (Commodity Markets, Gold $/Feinunze, monatlich ab 04/1968), deflationiert mit CPIAUCSL", "spark": [ [ "1968-04-01", 369.0982 ], [ "1968-09-01", 380.7761 ], [ "1969-03-01", 397.9954 ], [ "1969-09-01", 369.2553 ], [ "1970-03-01", 305.3416 ], [ "1970-09-01", 306.855 ], [ "1971-03-01", 325.7777 ], [ "1971-08-01", 353.0131 ], [ "1972-02-01", 387.3983 ], [ "1972-08-01", 534.2906 ], [ "1973-02-01", 575.0161 ], [ "1973-08-01", 794.4893 ], [ "1974-02-01", 1059.6121 ], [ "1974-08-01", 1037.8819 ], [ "1975-01-01", 1124.4179 ], [ "1975-07-01", 1020.9558 ], [ "1976-01-01", 784.4294 ], [ "1976-07-01", 691.7098 ], [ "1977-01-01", 751.3678 ], [ "1977-07-01", 785.8673 ], [ "1978-01-01", 921.9244 ], [ "1978-06-01", 945.8478 ], [ "1978-12-01", 1023.553 ], [ "1979-06-01", 1291.171 ], [ "1979-12-01", 1976.978 ], [ "1980-06-01", 2434.0937 ], [ "1980-12-01", 2080.5842 ], [ "1981-05-01", 1787.992 ], [ "1981-11-01", 1471.1738 ], [ "1982-05-01", 1163.7096 ], [ "1982-11-01", 1414.9425 ], [ "1983-05-01", 1475.2961 ], [ "1983-11-01", 1262.493 ], [ "1984-05-01", 1217.0762 ], [ "1984-10-01", 1084.0977 ], [ "1985-04-01", 1021.1293 ], [ "1985-10-01", 1003.9328 ], [ "1986-04-01", 1045.12 ], [ "1986-10-01", 1285.5857 ], [ "1987-04-01", 1298.5748 ], [ "1987-10-01", 1351.0514 ], [ "1988-03-01", 1273.4263 ], [ "1988-09-01", 1154.7791 ], [ "1989-03-01", 1066.3755 ], [ "1989-09-01", 969.1941 ], [ "1990-03-01", 1021.1002 ], [ "1990-09-01", 980.9582 ], [ "1991-02-01", 902.2528 ], [ "1991-08-01", 870.7953 ], [ "1992-02-01", 853.4082 ], [ "1992-08-01", 813.9697 ], [ "1993-02-01", 768.1978 ], [ "1993-08-01", 874.5556 ], [ "1994-02-01", 870.0616 ], [ "1994-07-01", 866.8493 ], [ "1995-01-01", 841.4329 ], [ "1995-07-01", 845.1806 ], [ "1996-01-01", 861.7858 ], [ "1996-07-01", 815.1094 ], [ "1997-01-01", 744.1437 ], [ "1997-07-01", 674.928 ], [ "1997-12-01", 596.81 ], [ "1998-06-01", 599.3013 ], [ "1998-12-01", 593.4687 ], [ "1999-06-01", 525.3505 ], [ "1999-12-01", 560.1841 ], [ "2000-06-01", 554.9446 ], [ "2000-11-01", 510.2115 ], [ "2001-05-01", 512.598 ], [ "2001-11-01", 519.5502 ], [ "2002-05-01", 584.4966 ], [ "2002-11-01", 587.2605 ], [ "2003-05-01", 650.3589 ], [ "2003-11-01", 704.3843 ], [ "2004-04-01", 718.5421 ], [ "2004-10-01", 735.5085 ], [ "2005-04-01", 740.0217 ], [ "2005-10-01", 788.7573 ], [ "2006-04-01", 1017.21 ], [ "2006-10-01", 969.7908 ], [ "2007-04-01", 1101.8482 ], [ "2007-09-01", 1142.3583 ], [ "2008-03-01", 1515.3049 ], [ "2008-09-01", 1267.0529 ], [ "2009-03-01", 1452.9144 ], [ "2009-09-01", 1543.2552 ], [ "2010-03-01", 1710.9854 ], [ "2010-08-01", 1864.4351 ], [ "2011-02-01", 2070.4564 ], [ "2011-08-01", 2599.3845 ], [ "2012-02-01", 2553.5898 ], [ "2012-08-01", 2368.8164 ], [ "2013-02-01", 2335.2463 ], [ "2013-08-01", 1935.0332 ], [ "2014-01-01", 1766.5965 ], [ "2014-07-01", 1844.4187 ], [ "2015-01-01", 1780.6314 ], [ "2015-07-01", 1583.3863 ], [ "2016-01-01", 1543.7524 ], [ "2016-07-01", 1860.6051 ], [ "2017-01-01", 1634.8716 ], [ "2017-06-01", 1724.2787 ], [ "2017-12-01", 1704.3304 ], [ "2018-06-01", 1706.475 ], [ "2018-12-01", 1652.3666 ], [ "2019-06-01", 1779.2355 ], [ "2019-12-01", 1910.7596 ], [ "2020-05-01", 2241.4555 ], [ "2020-11-01", 2389.6595 ], [ "2021-05-01", 2303.2098 ], [ "2021-11-01", 2182.6648 ], [ "2022-05-01", 2120.8804 ], [ "2022-11-01", 1929.0595 ], [ "2023-05-01", 2194.2445 ], [ "2023-10-01", 2080.6088 ], [ "2024-04-01", 2488.1857 ], [ "2024-10-01", 2847.6683 ], [ "2025-04-01", 3356.9368 ], [ "2025-10-01", 4181.7255 ], [ "2026-04-01", 4745.4851 ], [ "2026-09-01", 4319.0 ] ], "key": "gold_real", "group": "geldwert", "group_label": "Geldwert" }, "real_policy_rate": { "label": "Realer Leitzins", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "Prozentpunkte", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 0.35, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "start": "1954-07-01", "n": 867, "percentile": 39.2, "pressure": 60.8, "zscore": 0.27, "tau": -0.216, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-04-01", "change_10y": 1.42, "change_30y": -1.94, "note": "Leitzins abz\u00fcglich Inflationsrate. Dauerhaft negative Werte sind finanzielle Repression: Sparer finanzieren die Entwertung der Staatsschuld, ohne dass je dar\u00fcber abgestimmt wurde.", "source": "Fed/BLS \u00fcber FRED (FEDFUNDS \u2212 Jahresrate CPIAUCNS)", "spark": [ [ "1954-07-01", 0.4269 ], [ "1955-02-01", 2.0335 ], [ "1955-09-01", 1.8069 ], [ "1956-04-01", 1.8709 ], [ "1956-11-01", 0.6495 ], [ "1957-07-01", -0.2947 ], [ "1958-02-01", -1.5791 ], [ "1958-09-01", -0.3601 ], [ "1959-04-01", 2.614 ], [ "1959-12-01", 2.2599 ], [ "1960-07-01", 1.8601 ], [ "1961-02-01", 1.1795 ], [ "1961-09-01", 0.5286 ], [ "1962-04-01", 1.4377 ], [ "1962-12-01", 1.5967 ], [ "1963-07-01", 1.6999 ], [ "1964-02-01", 1.8353 ], [ "1964-09-01", 2.1471 ], [ "1965-05-01", 2.4819 ], [ "1965-12-01", 2.3969 ], [ "1966-07-01", 2.4519 ], [ "1967-02-01", 2.1875 ], [ "1967-09-01", 1.2377 ], [ "1968-05-01", 2.2043 ], [ "1968-12-01", 1.3002 ], [ "1969-07-01", 3.1659 ], [ "1970-02-01", 2.8347 ], [ "1970-10-01", 0.57 ], [ "1971-05-01", 0.2259 ], [ "1971-12-01", 0.8737 ], [ "1972-07-01", 1.6016 ], [ "1973-02-01", 2.7059 ], [ "1973-10-01", 2.2086 ], [ "1974-05-01", 0.6038 ], [ "1974-12-01", -3.8077 ], [ "1975-07-01", -3.6166 ], [ "1976-03-01", -1.2321 ], [ "1976-10-01", -0.4445 ], [ "1977-05-01", -1.3757 ], [ "1977-12-01", -0.141 ], [ "1978-08-01", 0.1969 ], [ "1979-03-01", -0.0046 ], [ "1979-10-01", 1.6985 ], [ "1980-05-01", -3.4256 ], [ "1980-12-01", 6.3837 ], [ "1981-08-01", 7.0157 ], [ "1982-03-01", 7.9003 ], [ "1982-10-01", 4.5708 ], [ "1983-05-01", 5.0809 ], [ "1984-01-01", 5.3678 ], [ "1984-08-01", 7.3486 ], [ "1985-03-01", 4.8763 ], [ "1985-10-01", 4.7611 ], [ "1986-05-01", 5.3589 ], [ "1987-01-01", 4.9701 ], [ "1987-08-01", 2.4456 ], [ "1988-03-01", 2.6549 ], [ "1988-10-01", 4.0502 ], [ "1989-06-01", 4.3605 ], [ "1990-01-01", 3.0277 ], [ "1990-08-01", 2.512 ], [ "1991-03-01", 1.2249 ], [ "1991-10-01", 2.2887 ], [ "1992-06-01", 0.6718 ], [ "1993-01-01", -0.2385 ], [ "1993-08-01", 0.2621 ], [ "1994-03-01", 0.833 ], [ "1994-11-01", 2.6151 ], [ "1995-06-01", 2.9595 ], [ "1996-01-01", 2.8321 ], [ "1996-08-01", 2.3423 ], [ "1997-03-01", 2.6283 ], [ "1997-11-01", 3.6915 ], [ "1998-06-01", 3.8757 ], [ "1999-01-01", 2.9592 ], [ "1999-08-01", 2.8056 ], [ "2000-04-01", 2.9514 ], [ "2000-11-01", 3.0638 ], [ "2001-06-01", 0.7217 ], [ "2002-01-01", 0.5878 ], [ "2002-09-01", 0.2357 ], [ "2003-04-01", -0.9647 ], [ "2003-11-01", -0.765 ], [ "2004-06-01", -2.2362 ], [ "2005-01-01", -0.6898 ], [ "2005-09-01", -1.0667 ], [ "2006-04-01", 1.2443 ], [ "2006-11-01", 3.2763 ], [ "2007-06-01", 2.563 ], [ "2008-02-01", -1.0466 ], [ "2008-09-01", -3.1269 ], [ "2009-04-01", 0.8869 ], [ "2009-11-01", -1.7183 ], [ "2010-06-01", -0.8733 ], [ "2011-02-01", -1.9476 ], [ "2011-09-01", -3.7884 ], [ "2012-04-01", -2.1627 ], [ "2012-11-01", -1.6041 ], [ "2013-07-01", -1.8707 ], [ "2014-02-01", -1.0563 ], [ "2014-09-01", -1.5679 ], [ "2015-04-01", 0.3195 ], [ "2015-11-01", -0.3818 ], [ "2016-07-01", -0.4371 ], [ "2017-02-01", -2.078 ], [ "2017-09-01", -1.083 ], [ "2018-04-01", -0.7727 ], [ "2018-12-01", 0.3598 ], [ "2019-07-01", 0.5885 ], [ "2020-02-01", -0.7549 ], [ "2020-09-01", -1.2813 ], [ "2021-04-01", -4.0897 ], [ "2021-12-01", -6.9564 ], [ "2022-07-01", -6.8448 ], [ "2023-02-01", -1.4656 ], [ "2023-09-01", 1.6303 ], [ "2024-05-01", 2.061 ], [ "2024-12-01", 1.5919 ], [ "2025-07-01", 1.6251 ], [ "2026-02-01", 1.2259 ], [ "2026-09-01", 0.3535 ] ], "key": "real_policy_rate", "group": "geldwert", "group_label": "Geldwert" }, "niip_gdp": { "label": "Netto-Auslandsverm\u00f6gensposition \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "% des BIP", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": -72.5, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "start": "1976-01-01", "n": 50, "percentile": 4.0, "pressure": 96.0, "zscore": 2.27, "tau": -0.873, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -30.5, "change_30y": -68.8, "note": "Was die USA der Welt netto schulden. Die Kennziffer, an der sich \u201eEmpire\u201c materiell festmachen l\u00e4sst: Ein Land, dessen Auslandsschuld schneller w\u00e4chst als seine Wirtschaft, lebt von der Bereitschaft anderer, seine Verbindlichkeiten zu halten.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (IIPUSNETIA \u00f7 GDP, ab 1976)", "spark": [ [ "1976-01-01", 4.424 ], [ "1977-01-01", 4.9574 ], [ "1978-01-01", 5.8233 ], [ "1979-01-01", 9.1922 ], [ "1980-01-01", 10.6408 ], [ "1981-01-01", 7.2656 ], [ "1982-01-01", 7.2799 ], [ "1983-01-01", 7.5284 ], [ "1984-01-01", 3.5859 ], [ "1985-01-01", 2.4652 ], [ "1986-01-01", 2.4231 ], [ "1987-01-01", 1.2625 ], [ "1988-01-01", 0.4234 ], [ "1989-01-01", -0.6117 ], [ "1990-01-01", -2.5461 ], [ "1991-01-01", -4.0316 ], [ "1992-01-01", -6.7912 ], [ "1993-01-01", -1.8095 ], [ "1994-01-01", -1.5503 ], [ "1995-01-01", -3.6899 ], [ "1996-01-01", -4.1724 ], [ "1997-01-01", -9.4255 ], [ "1998-01-01", -11.6594 ], [ "1999-01-01", -10.6492 ], [ "2000-01-01", -15.3591 ], [ "2001-01-01", -21.9142 ], [ "2002-01-01", -22.3523 ], [ "2003-01-01", -20.5152 ], [ "2004-01-01", -19.8161 ], [ "2005-01-01", -14.5468 ], [ "2006-01-01", -13.2936 ], [ "2007-01-01", -8.9959 ], [ "2008-01-01", -27.1622 ], [ "2009-01-01", -18.2036 ], [ "2010-01-01", -17.0074 ], [ "2011-01-01", -29.0176 ], [ "2012-01-01", -28.4373 ], [ "2013-01-01", -32.6978 ], [ "2014-01-01", -40.8262 ], [ "2015-01-01", -42.021 ], [ "2016-01-01", -44.5774 ], [ "2017-01-01", -40.6156 ], [ "2018-01-01", -48.1875 ], [ "2019-01-01", -55.2608 ], [ "2020-01-01", -54.6834 ], [ "2021-01-01", -67.6425 ], [ "2022-01-01", -56.321 ], [ "2023-01-01", -62.859 ], [ "2024-01-01", -76.8511 ], [ "2025-01-01", -72.4963 ] ], "key": "niip_gdp", "group": "aussenposition", "group_label": "Au\u00dfenposition" }, "current_account": { "label": "Leistungsbilanzsaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "% des BIP", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": -3.37, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 16.4, "pressure": 83.6, "zscore": 1.02, "tau": -0.589, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-01-01", "change_10y": -1.24, "change_30y": -2.0, "note": "", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (NETFI \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 3.8678 ], [ "1947-07-01", 4.0391 ], [ "1948-04-01", 1.1095 ], [ "1948-10-01", 0.2839 ], [ "1949-07-01", 0.2375 ], [ "1950-04-01", -0.4287 ], [ "1950-10-01", -0.7779 ], [ "1951-07-01", 0.6232 ], [ "1952-04-01", 0.3119 ], [ "1952-10-01", -0.324 ], [ "1953-07-01", -0.3014 ], [ "1954-04-01", 0.087 ], [ "1954-10-01", 0.2272 ], [ "1955-07-01", 0.1876 ], [ "1956-04-01", 0.5002 ], [ "1956-10-01", 0.984 ], [ "1957-07-01", 1.0248 ], [ "1958-04-01", 0.1739 ], [ "1958-10-01", -0.0286 ], [ "1959-07-01", 0.0063 ], [ "1960-04-01", 0.3184 ], [ "1960-10-01", 0.9041 ], [ "1961-07-01", 0.758 ], [ "1962-01-01", 0.5237 ], [ "1962-10-01", 0.5826 ], [ "1963-07-01", 0.8102 ], [ "1964-01-01", 1.2229 ], [ "1964-10-01", 1.086 ], [ "1965-07-01", 0.8768 ], [ "1966-01-01", 0.5822 ], [ "1966-10-01", 0.4901 ], [ "1967-07-01", 0.4141 ], [ "1968-01-01", 0.1772 ], [ "1968-10-01", 0.0682 ], [ "1969-07-01", 0.1657 ], [ "1970-01-01", 0.3719 ], [ "1970-10-01", 0.2022 ], [ "1971-07-01", -0.0017 ], [ "1972-01-01", -0.4088 ], [ "1972-10-01", -0.2093 ], [ "1973-07-01", 0.87 ], [ "1974-01-01", 1.1076 ], [ "1974-10-01", 0.2746 ], [ "1975-04-01", 1.2988 ], [ "1976-01-01", 0.7224 ], [ "1976-10-01", 0.1978 ], [ "1977-04-01", -0.4301 ], [ "1978-01-01", -1.1353 ], [ "1978-10-01", -0.0509 ], [ "1979-04-01", -0.1041 ], [ "1980-01-01", -0.3823 ], [ "1980-10-01", 0.2247 ], [ "1981-04-01", 0.0054 ], [ "1982-01-01", 0.0199 ], [ "1982-10-01", -0.5071 ], [ "1983-04-01", -0.7722 ], [ "1984-01-01", -2.0096 ], [ "1984-10-01", -2.4929 ], [ "1985-04-01", -2.5929 ], [ "1986-01-01", -2.8467 ], [ "1986-10-01", -3.2269 ], [ "1987-04-01", -3.2122 ], [ "1988-01-01", -2.5006 ], [ "1988-07-01", -2.0151 ], [ "1989-04-01", -1.6673 ], [ "1990-01-01", -1.5332 ], [ "1990-07-01", -1.3694 ], [ "1991-04-01", 0.2411 ], [ "1992-01-01", -0.3424 ], [ "1992-07-01", -0.8025 ], [ "1993-04-01", -1.0941 ], [ "1994-01-01", -1.3065 ], [ "1994-07-01", -1.66 ], [ "1995-04-01", -1.5748 ], [ "1996-01-01", -1.3081 ], [ "1996-07-01", -1.6421 ], [ "1997-04-01", -1.196 ], [ "1998-01-01", -1.8594 ], [ "1998-07-01", -2.4627 ], [ "1999-04-01", -2.7526 ], [ "2000-01-01", -3.7044 ], [ "2000-07-01", -4.0394 ], [ "2001-04-01", -3.5766 ], [ "2001-10-01", -3.2905 ], [ "2002-07-01", -4.2033 ], [ "2003-04-01", -4.65 ], [ "2003-10-01", -4.3447 ], [ "2004-07-01", -5.2766 ], [ "2005-04-01", -5.5885 ], [ "2005-10-01", -6.2976 ], [ "2006-07-01", -6.3144 ], [ "2007-04-01", -5.4067 ], [ "2007-10-01", -4.5549 ], [ "2008-07-01", -4.826 ], [ "2009-04-01", -2.4651 ], [ "2009-10-01", -2.7854 ], [ "2010-07-01", -3.1218 ], [ "2011-04-01", -3.0721 ], [ "2011-10-01", -2.8429 ], [ "2012-07-01", -2.4384 ], [ "2013-04-01", -2.252 ], [ "2013-10-01", -1.7122 ], [ "2014-07-01", -1.9996 ], [ "2015-01-01", -2.3192 ], [ "2015-10-01", -2.2447 ], [ "2016-07-01", -2.0792 ], [ "2017-01-01", -1.8628 ], [ "2017-10-01", -1.8712 ], [ "2018-07-01", -2.3297 ], [ "2019-01-01", -2.1942 ], [ "2019-10-01", -1.8329 ], [ "2020-07-01", -2.9858 ], [ "2021-01-01", -3.3709 ], [ "2021-10-01", -3.7265 ], [ "2022-07-01", -3.4623 ], [ "2023-01-01", -3.2942 ], [ "2023-10-01", -3.6064 ], [ "2024-07-01", -4.5203 ], [ "2025-01-01", -4.8656 ], [ "2025-10-01", -3.1375 ], [ "2026-04-01", -3.3659 ] ], "key": "current_account", "group": "aussenposition", "group_label": "Au\u00dfenposition" }, "dollar_index": { "label": "Handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.6, "unit": "Index 2006=100", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 121.38, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "start": "2006-01-02", "n": 5203, "percentile": 90.0, "pressure": 10.0, "zscore": -1.21, "tau": 0.649, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-09-26", "change_10y": 9.11, "change_30y": null, "note": "Der Au\u00dfenwert des Dollars. Steht hier ausdr\u00fccklich als Gegenprobe: Solange dieser Kurs stark ist, ist die These vom akuten Dollarverfall am Devisenmarkt nicht ablesbar. Geringes Gewicht, weil kurzfristige Kursbewegungen wenig \u00fcber die Ordnung aussagen.", "source": "Fed \u00fcber FRED (DTWEXBGS, ab 2006)", "spark": [ [ "2006-01-02", 101.4155 ], [ "2006-03-02", 99.5969 ], [ "2006-05-02", 97.6571 ], [ "2006-07-03", 98.0371 ], [ "2006-08-31", 97.644 ], [ "2006-10-31", 97.3901 ], [ "2007-01-01", 97.0323 ], [ "2007-03-02", 97.3691 ], [ "2007-05-02", 95.0352 ], [ "2007-07-03", 93.697 ], [ "2007-08-31", 93.6674 ], [ "2007-10-31", 89.1389 ], [ "2008-01-01", 89.6297 ], [ "2008-02-29", 87.1654 ], [ "2008-05-01", 87.1347 ], [ "2008-07-01", 86.8447 ], [ "2008-08-29", 90.0567 ], [ "2008-10-30", 99.4568 ], [ "2008-12-30", 98.3833 ], [ "2009-03-05", 105.8064 ], [ "2009-05-06", 98.9044 ], [ "2009-07-08", 97.0204 ], [ "2009-09-08", 93.7323 ], [ "2009-11-10", 91.6659 ], [ "2010-01-15", 91.7668 ], [ "2010-03-25", 93.5885 ], [ "2010-05-26", 97.1879 ], [ "2010-07-28", 93.7506 ], [ "2010-09-29", 91.1632 ], [ "2010-12-02", 91.2651 ], [ "2011-02-04", 89.391 ], [ "2011-04-08", 87.1493 ], [ "2011-06-09", 86.5913 ], [ "2011-08-10", 87.3792 ], [ "2011-10-13", 90.6603 ], [ "2011-12-15", 92.8858 ], [ "2012-02-17", 90.23 ], [ "2012-04-20", 90.8066 ], [ "2012-06-21", 93.6378 ], [ "2012-08-22", 92.4362 ], [ "2012-10-25", 91.02 ], [ "2013-01-02", 90.6941 ], [ "2013-03-08", 92.6252 ], [ "2013-05-08", 91.1848 ], [ "2013-07-10", 94.7595 ], [ "2013-09-11", 93.7112 ], [ "2013-11-13", 93.4848 ], [ "2014-01-17", 94.5846 ], [ "2014-03-28", 94.3683 ], [ "2014-05-29", 93.6973 ], [ "2014-07-30", 94.3473 ], [ "2014-10-01", 97.5387 ], [ "2014-12-04", 100.3931 ], [ "2015-02-09", 104.9889 ], [ "2015-04-15", 107.1855 ], [ "2015-06-16", 106.0473 ], [ "2015-08-18", 110.2504 ], [ "2015-10-20", 109.3368 ], [ "2015-12-22", 113.211 ], [ "2016-03-02", 113.7965 ], [ "2016-05-02", 108.671 ], [ "2016-07-01", 111.6509 ], [ "2016-09-02", 112.0009 ], [ "2016-11-04", 113.5828 ], [ "2017-01-10", 118.5386 ], [ "2017-03-16", 115.4456 ], [ "2017-05-16", 113.9923 ], [ "2017-07-19", 110.4339 ], [ "2017-09-19", 108.6142 ], [ "2017-11-21", 110.9828 ], [ "2018-01-26", 106.6911 ], [ "2018-04-02", 107.7033 ], [ "2018-06-01", 111.8265 ], [ "2018-08-03", 113.012 ], [ "2018-10-04", 114.6867 ], [ "2018-12-10", 116.6746 ], [ "2019-02-14", 115.1007 ], [ "2019-04-18", 114.7073 ], [ "2019-06-19", 115.7889 ], [ "2019-08-21", 117.1764 ], [ "2019-10-23", 116.0586 ], [ "2019-12-30", 114.9631 ], [ "2020-03-03", 116.4958 ], [ "2020-05-01", 123.1492 ], [ "2020-07-06", 119.2852 ], [ "2020-09-03", 116.0685 ], [ "2020-11-05", 114.4556 ], [ "2021-01-14", 111.1567 ], [ "2021-03-19", 112.9756 ], [ "2021-05-19", 110.8807 ], [ "2021-07-22", 113.4695 ], [ "2021-09-22", 113.6223 ], [ "2021-11-24", 116.2711 ], [ "2022-01-31", 115.566 ], [ "2022-04-01", 115.4814 ], [ "2022-06-03", 118.2153 ], [ "2022-08-05", 122.321 ], [ "2022-10-06", 127.2493 ], [ "2022-12-12", 122.7714 ], [ "2023-02-14", 119.9229 ], [ "2023-04-17", 119.2787 ], [ "2023-06-20", 118.938 ], [ "2023-08-21", 120.4627 ], [ "2023-10-23", 123.2846 ], [ "2023-12-27", 118.4729 ], [ "2024-02-29", 121.1824 ], [ "2024-04-30", 122.9853 ], [ "2024-07-03", 123.7768 ], [ "2024-09-04", 122.5144 ], [ "2024-11-06", 125.7035 ], [ "2025-01-10", 129.8664 ], [ "2025-03-14", 125.6942 ], [ "2025-05-15", 122.8174 ], [ "2025-07-18", 120.356 ], [ "2025-09-18", 119.6616 ], [ "2025-11-21", 121.8653 ], [ "2026-01-27", 117.4523 ], [ "2026-03-30", 121.2851 ], [ "2026-06-01", 119.1653 ], [ "2026-08-03", 119.6951 ], [ "2026-10-02", 121.3848 ] ], "key": "dollar_index", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "dollar_yuan": { "label": "Dollarkurs in Yuan", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.0, "unit": "Yuan pro Dollar", "danger": "low", "decimals": 4, "raw": 6.7038, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "start": "2005-07-21", "n": 5313, "percentile": 40.9, "pressure": 59.1, "zscore": 0.25, "tau": -0.014, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-01-13", "change_10y": 0.0353, "change_30y": null, "note": "Die zweite Gegenprobe neben dem handelsgewichteten Kurs dar\u00fcber, und die einzige bilaterale Reihe im Set: Was ein Dollar in Yuan kostet. Ein fallender Wert hei\u00dft starker Yuan, schwacher Dollar. Sie steht hier, weil die verbreiteten \u201eYuan durchbricht 6,70\"-Posts an dieser Reihe h\u00e4ngen und der Vergleich im Haus gef\u00fchrt werden soll. GEWICHT NULL, absichtlich: Sie misst denselben Sachverhalt wie der handelsgewichtete Kurs \u2014 den Devisenpreis des Dollars \u2014, und der Yuan steckt dort als einer der gr\u00f6\u00dften Einzelposten schon drin. Gemessen auf Tagesver\u00e4nderungen der letzten zw\u00f6lf Monate: r = 0,59 gegen den breiten Index (R\u00b2 = 0,35). Gewichtet w\u00e4re das eine Teil-Doppelz\u00e4hlung. REIHENBEGINN 21.07.2005, absichtlich: Davor war der Kurs kein Preis, sondern ein Beschluss \u2014 von 1998 bis Juli 2005 administrativ auf 8,28 festgehalten, und am 03.01.1994 wertete die Kursvereinheitlichung den Yuan an einem Tag von 5,81 auf 8,72 ab. Ein Perzentil \u00fcber diese Phasen w\u00fcrde Verwaltungsakte als Marktdruck ausweisen. Auch innerhalb der Float-Phase bleibt das Perzentil startabh\u00e4ngig (ab 1994 g\u00e4be es 73, ab 2010 nur 47) \u2014 ein weiterer Grund, die Reihe nicht mitrechnen zu lassen. Zum Niveau: Mit 6,71 ist der Yuan deutlich schw\u00e4cher als an seinem Rekord vom 14.01.2014 (6,04). Bemerkenswert ist nicht der Stand, sondern das Tempo \u2014 die Zw\u00f6lfmonatsaufwertung von 6,3 % liegt im 88. Perzentil der Float-Phase, bei einer Schwankungsbreite unter ihrem eigenen Median.", "source": "Fed H.10 \u00fcber FRED (DEXCHUS, ab 21.07.2005)", "spark": [ [ "2005-07-21", 8.2765 ], [ "2005-09-21", 8.0911 ], [ "2005-11-25", 8.0815 ], [ "2006-01-31", 8.0608 ], [ "2006-04-05", 8.0116 ], [ "2006-06-07", 8.0171 ], [ "2006-08-09", 7.9745 ], [ "2006-10-12", 7.9143 ], [ "2006-12-15", 7.8265 ], [ "2007-02-21", 7.7426 ], [ "2007-04-24", 7.7345 ], [ "2007-06-27", 7.621 ], [ "2007-08-29", 7.549 ], [ "2007-10-30", 7.472 ], [ "2008-01-03", 7.2755 ], [ "2008-03-10", 7.106 ], [ "2008-05-09", 6.9876 ], [ "2008-07-14", 6.845 ], [ "2008-09-15", 6.8482 ], [ "2008-11-19", 6.8295 ], [ "2009-01-26", 6.8392 ], [ "2009-03-30", 6.836 ], [ "2009-06-02", 6.8305 ], [ "2009-08-03", 6.8308 ], [ "2009-10-05", 6.826 ], [ "2009-12-09", 6.8275 ], [ "2010-02-16", 6.8326 ], [ "2010-04-19", 6.8262 ], [ "2010-06-21", 6.7968 ], [ "2010-08-23", 6.7995 ], [ "2010-10-27", 6.6805 ], [ "2011-01-03", 6.5895 ], [ "2011-03-08", 6.5684 ], [ "2011-05-10", 6.4915 ], [ "2011-07-13", 6.4675 ], [ "2011-09-14", 6.391 ], [ "2011-11-17", 6.3505 ], [ "2012-01-25", 6.333 ], [ "2012-03-28", 6.3044 ], [ "2012-05-30", 6.3574 ], [ "2012-08-02", 6.3671 ], [ "2012-10-04", 6.284 ], [ "2012-12-10", 6.2296 ], [ "2013-02-13", 6.2323 ], [ "2013-04-18", 6.1811 ], [ "2013-06-20", 6.1277 ], [ "2013-08-22", 6.1206 ], [ "2013-10-25", 6.0838 ], [ "2014-01-02", 6.0504 ], [ "2014-03-07", 6.1258 ], [ "2014-05-08", 6.2272 ], [ "2014-07-14", 6.2059 ], [ "2014-09-15", 6.1415 ], [ "2014-11-18", 6.1208 ], [ "2015-01-26", 6.2535 ], [ "2015-03-31", 6.199 ], [ "2015-06-02", 6.198 ], [ "2015-08-04", 6.2086 ], [ "2015-10-06", 6.3559 ], [ "2015-12-11", 6.4538 ], [ "2016-02-17", 6.527 ], [ "2016-04-19", 6.4571 ], [ "2016-06-22", 6.575 ], [ "2016-08-24", 6.6562 ], [ "2016-10-27", 6.7819 ], [ "2017-01-03", 6.9575 ], [ "2017-03-10", 6.905 ], [ "2017-05-11", 6.9033 ], [ "2017-07-14", 6.7741 ], [ "2017-09-15", 6.55 ], [ "2017-11-21", 6.6265 ], [ "2018-01-26", 6.3199 ], [ "2018-03-30", 6.2726 ], [ "2018-06-04", 6.405 ], [ "2018-08-06", 6.85 ], [ "2018-10-09", 6.9217 ], [ "2018-12-13", 6.8798 ], [ "2019-02-25", 6.6844 ], [ "2019-04-26", 6.7282 ], [ "2019-06-28", 6.865 ], [ "2019-09-03", 7.1786 ], [ "2019-11-05", 7.0082 ], [ "2020-01-10", 6.9178 ], [ "2020-03-16", 6.9913 ], [ "2020-05-18", 7.1086 ], [ "2020-07-21", 6.98 ], [ "2020-09-22", 6.7779 ], [ "2020-11-25", 6.575 ], [ "2021-02-05", 6.4664 ], [ "2021-04-09", 6.5522 ], [ "2021-06-11", 6.3967 ], [ "2021-08-16", 6.4742 ], [ "2021-10-19", 6.3822 ], [ "2021-12-22", 6.3695 ], [ "2022-02-28", 6.3084 ], [ "2022-05-02", 6.6079 ], [ "2022-07-06", 6.707 ], [ "2022-09-07", 6.965 ], [ "2022-11-09", 7.2401 ], [ "2023-01-18", 6.7534 ], [ "2023-03-22", 6.8802 ], [ "2023-05-23", 7.049 ], [ "2023-07-28", 7.1488 ], [ "2023-09-29", 7.296 ], [ "2023-12-05", 7.1444 ], [ "2024-02-08", 7.1965 ], [ "2024-04-12", 7.2374 ], [ "2024-06-14", 7.2557 ], [ "2024-08-19", 7.1393 ], [ "2024-10-22", 7.123 ], [ "2024-12-27", 7.298 ], [ "2025-03-04", 7.2651 ], [ "2025-05-05", 7.2706 ], [ "2025-07-10", 7.1748 ], [ "2025-09-11", 7.1184 ], [ "2025-11-14", 7.0992 ], [ "2026-01-21", 6.9637 ], [ "2026-03-26", 6.9107 ], [ "2026-05-28", 6.7796 ], [ "2026-07-31", 6.7509 ], [ "2026-10-02", 6.7038 ] ], "key": "dollar_yuan", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "co2": { "label": "CO\u2082-Konzentration", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.3, "unit": "ppm", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 426.07, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "start": "1958-03-01", "n": 823, "percentile": 97.6, "pressure": 97.6, "zscore": 1.93, "tau": 0.956, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2025-07-01", "change_10y": 24.84, "change_30y": 66.38, "note": "Mauna Loa, monatlich seit 1958. Die planetare Grenze liegt bei 350 ppm, die Hochrisikolinie bei 450.", "source": "NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory", "spark": [ [ "1958-03-01", 315.71 ], [ "1958-09-01", 313.21 ], [ "1959-04-01", 317.72 ], [ "1959-11-01", 314.81 ], [ "1960-06-01", 319.58 ], [ "1961-01-01", 316.89 ], [ "1961-08-01", 316.79 ], [ "1962-03-01", 319.68 ], [ "1962-09-01", 316.24 ], [ "1963-04-01", 321.38 ], [ "1963-11-01", 317.07 ], [ "1964-06-01", 321.89 ], [ "1965-01-01", 319.44 ], [ "1965-08-01", 318.87 ], [ "1966-03-01", 322.39 ], [ "1966-09-01", 318.64 ], [ "1967-04-01", 324.41 ], [ "1967-11-01", 320.73 ], [ "1968-06-01", 325.36 ], [ "1969-01-01", 324.0 ], [ "1969-08-01", 323.66 ], [ "1970-03-01", 326.93 ], [ "1970-09-01", 323.1 ], [ "1971-04-01", 327.78 ], [ "1971-11-01", 324.8 ], [ "1972-06-01", 329.09 ], [ "1973-01-01", 328.55 ], [ "1973-08-01", 329.31 ], [ "1974-03-01", 331.49 ], [ "1974-09-01", 327.33 ], [ "1975-04-01", 333.11 ], [ "1975-11-01", 329.38 ], [ "1976-06-01", 333.97 ], [ "1977-01-01", 332.68 ], [ "1977-08-01", 332.56 ], [ "1978-03-01", 336.66 ], [ "1978-09-01", 332.36 ], [ "1979-04-01", 338.82 ], [ "1979-11-01", 335.32 ], [ "1980-06-01", 341.36 ], [ "1981-01-01", 339.29 ], [ "1981-08-01", 338.48 ], [ "1982-03-01", 342.78 ], [ "1982-09-01", 338.37 ], [ "1983-04-01", 345.4 ], [ "1983-11-01", 341.79 ], [ "1984-06-01", 347.16 ], [ "1985-01-01", 345.48 ], [ "1985-08-01", 345.26 ], [ "1986-03-01", 348.25 ], [ "1986-09-01", 345.48 ], [ "1987-04-01", 351.4 ], [ "1987-11-01", 348.08 ], [ "1988-06-01", 353.88 ], [ "1989-01-01", 353.07 ], [ "1989-08-01", 351.84 ], [ "1990-03-01", 355.75 ], [ "1990-09-01", 351.38 ], [ "1991-04-01", 358.77 ], [ "1991-11-01", 353.89 ], [ "1992-06-01", 359.44 ], [ "1993-01-01", 357.1 ], [ "1993-08-01", 355.76 ], [ "1994-03-01", 360.11 ], [ "1994-09-01", 355.86 ], [ "1995-04-01", 363.44 ], [ "1995-11-01", 359.61 ], [ "1996-06-01", 365.06 ], [ "1997-01-01", 363.24 ], [ "1997-08-01", 362.4 ], [ "1998-03-01", 367.36 ], [ "1998-09-01", 364.16 ], [ "1999-04-01", 371.15 ], [ "1999-11-01", 366.88 ], [ "2000-06-01", 371.87 ], [ "2001-01-01", 370.76 ], [ "2001-08-01", 369.78 ], [ "2002-03-01", 374.3 ], [ "2002-09-01", 370.92 ], [ "2003-04-01", 377.92 ], [ "2003-11-01", 374.84 ], [ "2004-06-01", 379.87 ], [ "2005-01-01", 378.63 ], [ "2005-08-01", 378.93 ], [ "2006-03-01", 382.86 ], [ "2006-09-01", 379.04 ], [ "2007-04-01", 386.73 ], [ "2007-11-01", 382.7 ], [ "2008-06-01", 387.99 ], [ "2009-01-01", 387.17 ], [ "2009-08-01", 386.29 ], [ "2010-03-01", 391.37 ], [ "2010-09-01", 387.03 ], [ "2011-04-01", 393.44 ], [ "2011-11-01", 390.48 ], [ "2012-06-01", 395.91 ], [ "2013-01-01", 395.78 ], [ "2013-08-01", 395.39 ], [ "2014-03-01", 399.91 ], [ "2014-09-01", 395.54 ], [ "2015-04-01", 403.35 ], [ "2015-11-01", 400.27 ], [ "2016-06-01", 406.99 ], [ "2017-01-01", 406.36 ], [ "2017-08-01", 405.32 ], [ "2018-03-01", 409.59 ], [ "2018-09-01", 405.71 ], [ "2019-04-01", 413.54 ], [ "2019-11-01", 410.47 ], [ "2020-06-01", 416.58 ], [ "2021-01-01", 415.49 ], [ "2021-08-01", 414.42 ], [ "2022-03-01", 418.76 ], [ "2022-09-01", 415.91 ], [ "2023-04-01", 423.35 ], [ "2023-11-01", 420.46 ], [ "2024-06-01", 426.91 ], [ "2025-01-01", 426.65 ], [ "2025-08-01", 425.48 ], [ "2026-03-01", 430.15 ], [ "2026-09-01", 426.07 ] ], "key": "co2", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "temp_anomaly": { "label": "Globale Temperaturabweichung", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.3, "unit": "\u00b0C gg\u00fc. 1951\u201380", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 1.18, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "start": "1880-12-31", "n": 146, "percentile": 99.3, "pressure": 99.3, "zscore": 2.75, "tau": 0.733, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 0.29, "change_30y": 0.73, "note": "", "source": "NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4, ab 1880)", "spark": [ [ "1880-12-31", -0.17 ], [ "1881-12-31", -0.09 ], [ "1882-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1883-12-31", -0.18 ], [ "1884-12-31", -0.28 ], [ "1886-12-31", -0.31 ], [ "1887-12-31", 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0.12 ], [ "1987-12-31", 0.32 ], [ "1988-12-31", 0.39 ], [ "1989-12-31", 0.27 ], [ "1990-12-31", 0.45 ], [ "1991-12-31", 0.41 ], [ "1993-12-31", 0.23 ], [ "1994-12-31", 0.31 ], [ "1995-12-31", 0.45 ], [ "1996-12-31", 0.33 ], [ "1998-12-31", 0.61 ], [ "1999-12-31", 0.38 ], [ "2000-12-31", 0.39 ], [ "2001-12-31", 0.53 ], [ "2002-12-31", 0.63 ], [ "2004-12-31", 0.53 ], [ "2005-12-31", 0.68 ], [ "2006-12-31", 0.64 ], [ "2007-12-31", 0.66 ], [ "2008-12-31", 0.54 ], [ "2010-12-31", 0.72 ], [ "2011-12-31", 0.61 ], [ "2012-12-31", 0.65 ], [ "2013-12-31", 0.67 ], [ "2015-12-31", 0.89 ], [ "2016-12-31", 1.01 ], [ "2017-12-31", 0.91 ], [ "2018-12-31", 0.85 ], [ "2019-12-31", 0.98 ], [ "2021-12-31", 0.85 ], [ "2022-12-31", 0.89 ], [ "2023-12-31", 1.17 ], [ "2024-12-31", 1.28 ], [ "2025-12-31", 1.18 ] ], "key": "temp_anomaly", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "living_planet": { "label": "Living Planet Index", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "Index 1970=100", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 0.27, "as_of": "2022-12-31", "start": "1970-12-31", "n": 53, "percentile": 1.9, "pressure": 98.1, "zscore": 1.28, "tau": -1.0, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -0.04, "change_30y": -0.32, "note": "Mittlere Bestandsentwicklung von rund 35.000 Wirbeltierpopulationen. Der Index misst die durchschnittliche relative Ver\u00e4nderung der Bestandsgr\u00f6\u00dfen, nicht die Zahl verlorener Tiere oder Arten.", "source": "WWF/ZSL \u00fcber Our World in Data (bis 2020)", "spark": [ [ "1970-12-31", 1.0 ], [ "1971-12-31", 0.994 ], [ "1972-12-31", 0.9812 ], [ "1973-12-31", 0.9656 ], [ "1974-12-31", 0.9465 ], [ "1975-12-31", 0.9245 ], [ "1976-12-31", 0.9 ], [ "1977-12-31", 0.8682 ], [ "1978-12-31", 0.8385 ], [ "1979-12-31", 0.8154 ], [ "1980-12-31", 0.7985 ], [ "1981-12-31", 0.7842 ], [ "1982-12-31", 0.7615 ], [ "1983-12-31", 0.7362 ], [ "1984-12-31", 0.7118 ], [ "1985-12-31", 0.692 ], [ "1986-12-31", 0.6772 ], [ "1987-12-31", 0.6598 ], [ "1988-12-31", 0.6421 ], [ "1989-12-31", 0.6289 ], [ "1990-12-31", 0.6162 ], [ "1991-12-31", 0.6042 ], [ "1992-12-31", 0.5899 ], [ "1993-12-31", 0.5724 ], [ "1994-12-31", 0.5552 ], [ "1995-12-31", 0.5368 ], [ "1996-12-31", 0.5245 ], [ "1997-12-31", 0.5075 ], [ "1998-12-31", 0.4894 ], [ "1999-12-31", 0.4711 ], [ "2000-12-31", 0.4583 ], [ "2001-12-31", 0.4462 ], [ "2002-12-31", 0.436 ], [ "2003-12-31", 0.4257 ], [ "2004-12-31", 0.418 ], [ "2005-12-31", 0.4097 ], [ "2006-12-31", 0.3993 ], [ "2007-12-31", 0.3851 ], [ "2008-12-31", 0.3692 ], [ "2009-12-31", 0.3507 ], [ "2010-12-31", 0.3333 ], [ "2011-12-31", 0.3175 ], [ "2012-12-31", 0.3089 ], [ "2013-12-31", 0.3074 ], [ "2014-12-31", 0.3074 ], [ "2015-12-31", 0.302 ], [ "2016-12-31", 0.2926 ], [ "2017-12-31", 0.2902 ], [ "2018-12-31", 0.2891 ], [ "2019-12-31", 0.2871 ], [ "2020-12-31", 0.2783 ], [ "2021-12-31", 0.2722 ], [ "2022-12-31", 0.2677 ] ], "key": "living_planet", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "forest_share": { "label": "Waldfl\u00e4che der Erde", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "% der Landfl\u00e4che", "danger": "low", "decimals": 3, "raw": 31.906, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "start": "1990-12-31", "n": 36, "percentile": 2.8, "pressure": 97.2, "zscore": 1.45, "tau": -1.0, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -0.318, "change_30y": -1.155, "note": "", "source": "FAO Forest Resources Assessment \u00fcber Our World in Data", "spark": [ [ "1990-12-31", 33.4726 ], [ "1991-12-31", 33.3902 ], [ "1992-12-31", 33.3078 ], [ "1993-12-31", 33.2254 ], [ "1994-12-31", 33.143 ], [ "1995-12-31", 33.0605 ], [ "1996-12-31", 32.9781 ], [ "1997-12-31", 32.8957 ], [ "1998-12-31", 32.8133 ], [ "1999-12-31", 32.7309 ], [ "2000-12-31", 32.6485 ], [ "2001-12-31", 32.621 ], [ "2002-12-31", 32.5936 ], [ "2003-12-31", 32.5662 ], [ "2004-12-31", 32.5388 ], [ "2005-12-31", 32.5113 ], [ "2006-12-31", 32.4839 ], [ "2007-12-31", 32.4565 ], [ "2008-12-31", 32.4291 ], [ "2009-12-31", 32.4016 ], [ "2010-12-31", 32.3742 ], [ "2011-12-31", 32.3441 ], [ "2012-12-31", 32.3139 ], [ "2013-12-31", 32.2838 ], [ "2014-12-31", 32.2536 ], [ "2015-12-31", 32.2234 ], [ "2016-12-31", 32.1985 ], [ "2017-12-31", 32.1735 ], [ "2018-12-31", 32.1486 ], [ "2019-12-31", 32.1236 ], [ "2020-12-31", 32.0986 ], [ "2021-12-31", 32.0601 ], [ "2022-12-31", 32.0215 ], [ "2023-12-31", 31.9829 ], [ "2024-12-31", 31.9444 ], [ "2025-12-31", 31.9058 ] ], "key": "forest_share", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "fertilizer": { "label": "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "kg/ha", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 116.43, "as_of": "2023-12-31", "start": "1961-12-31", "n": 63, "percentile": 92.1, "pressure": 92.1, "zscore": 1.25, "tau": 0.886, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2021-12-31", "change_10y": 2.1, "change_30y": 39.77, "note": "Steht stellvertretend f\u00fcr die Stickstoff- und Phosphorkreisl\u00e4ufe \u2014 jene beiden planetaren Grenzen, die am weitesten jenseits ihrer Hochrisikolinie liegen, deutlicher noch als das Klima.", "source": "FAO \u00fcber Our World in Data (ab 1961)", "spark": [ [ "1961-12-31", 20.82 ], [ "1962-12-31", 22.56 ], [ "1963-12-31", 25.01 ], [ "1964-12-31", 27.95 ], [ "1965-12-31", 31.22 ], [ "1966-12-31", 34.93 ], [ "1967-12-31", 37.68 ], [ "1968-12-31", 39.89 ], [ "1969-12-31", 42.13 ], [ "1970-12-31", 46.05 ], [ "1971-12-31", 49.15 ], [ "1972-12-31", 52.43 ], [ "1973-12-31", 56.74 ], [ "1974-12-31", 55.27 ], [ "1975-12-31", 60.64 ], [ "1976-12-31", 63.38 ], [ "1977-12-31", 67.35 ], [ "1978-12-31", 71.6 ], [ "1979-12-31", 74.03 ], [ "1980-12-31", 76.85 ], [ "1981-12-31", 76.3 ], [ "1982-12-31", 76.1 ], [ "1983-12-31", 81.32 ], [ "1984-12-31", 84.85 ], [ "1985-12-31", 83.47 ], [ "1986-12-31", 85.62 ], [ "1987-12-31", 89.3 ], [ "1988-12-31", 93.3 ], [ "1989-12-31", 91.56 ], [ "1990-12-31", 88.72 ], [ "1991-12-31", 86.29 ], [ "1992-12-31", 80.51 ], [ "1993-12-31", 76.66 ], [ "1994-12-31", 78.04 ], [ "1995-12-31", 82.72 ], [ "1996-12-31", 86.09 ], [ "1997-12-31", 87.27 ], [ "1998-12-31", 87.94 ], [ "1999-12-31", 89.14 ], [ "2000-12-31", 85.97 ], [ "2001-12-31", 87.42 ], [ "2002-12-31", 90.32 ], [ "2003-12-31", 93.3 ], [ "2004-12-31", 98.11 ], [ "2005-12-31", 98.25 ], [ "2006-12-31", 101.1 ], [ "2007-12-31", 105.62 ], [ "2008-12-31", 99.26 ], [ "2009-12-31", 100.14 ], [ "2010-12-31", 109.94 ], [ "2011-12-31", 113.52 ], [ "2012-12-31", 112.37 ], [ "2013-12-31", 114.33 ], [ "2014-12-31", 116.89 ], [ "2015-12-31", 113.98 ], [ "2016-12-31", 115.97 ], [ "2017-12-31", 118.43 ], [ "2018-12-31", 117.09 ], [ "2019-12-31", 115.4 ], [ "2020-12-31", 123.18 ], [ "2021-12-31", 121.39 ], [ "2022-12-31", 114.77 ], [ "2023-12-31", 116.43 ] ], "key": "fertilizer", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "material_footprint": { "label": "Materialfu\u00dfabdruck pro Kopf", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "t/Kopf", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 13.76, "as_of": "2022-12-31", "start": "2000-12-31", "n": 23, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 100.0, "zscore": 1.85, "tau": 0.901, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 2.04, "change_30y": null, "note": "Gesamte f\u00fcr den Konsum entnommene Rohstoffmenge, den Handel eingerechnet. Die Kennziffer, an der sich die Entkopplungsbehauptung pr\u00fcfen l\u00e4sst: W\u00e4chst die Wirtschaft, ohne dass diese Zahl steigt?", "source": "UN SDG 12.2.1 \u00fcber Our World in Data (ab 2000)", "spark": [ [ "2000-12-31", 8.99 ], [ "2001-12-31", 9.01 ], [ "2002-12-31", 9.06 ], [ "2003-12-31", 9.34 ], [ "2004-12-31", 9.73 ], [ "2005-12-31", 9.98 ], [ "2006-12-31", 10.27 ], [ "2007-12-31", 10.54 ], [ "2008-12-31", 10.57 ], [ "2009-12-31", 10.51 ], [ "2010-12-31", 10.97 ], [ "2011-12-31", 11.52 ], [ "2012-12-31", 11.72 ], [ "2013-12-31", 11.99 ], [ "2014-12-31", 12.12 ], [ "2015-12-31", 11.98 ], [ "2016-12-31", 11.98 ], [ "2017-12-31", 11.99 ], [ "2018-12-31", 11.94 ], [ "2019-12-31", 12.32 ], [ "2020-12-31", 13.08 ], [ "2021-12-31", 13.6 ], [ "2022-12-31", 13.76 ] ], "key": "material_footprint", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "renewable_share": { "label": "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 8.59, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "start": "1965-12-31", "n": 61, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 0.0, "zscore": -2.9, "tau": 0.916, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2023-12-31", "change_10y": 3.08, "change_30y": 5.15, "note": "Nach \u00fcber f\u00fcnfzig Jahren Energiewende-Debatte. Steht hier bewusst mit der Gefahrenrichtung \u201eniedrig ist gef\u00e4hrlich\u201c: Ein steigender Wert w\u00e4re der st\u00e4rkste einzelne Gegenbeleg zur Kollapsthese in dieser S\u00e4ule. Ab 1965 gerechnet \u2014 davor f\u00fchrt die Quelle nur jahrzehntweise R\u00fccksch\u00e4tzungen, die mit den Jahreswerten nicht dieselbe Verteilung bilden.", "source": "Energy Institute / Ember \u00fcber Our World in Data (ab 1965)", "spark": [ [ "1965-12-31", 2.4421 ], [ "1966-12-31", 2.4688 ], [ "1967-12-31", 2.4281 ], [ "1968-12-31", 2.4205 ], [ "1969-12-31", 2.3961 ], [ "1970-12-31", 2.3663 ], [ "1971-12-31", 2.3797 ], [ "1972-12-31", 2.3725 ], [ "1973-12-31", 2.2829 ], [ "1974-12-31", 2.5008 ], [ "1975-12-31", 2.5239 ], [ "1976-12-31", 2.4072 ], [ "1977-12-31", 2.4069 ], [ "1978-12-31", 2.5018 ], [ "1979-12-31", 2.5681 ], [ "1980-12-31", 2.6876 ], [ "1981-12-31", 2.7869 ], [ "1982-12-31", 2.8886 ], [ "1983-12-31", 3.0038 ], [ "1984-12-31", 3.0182 ], [ "1985-12-31", 3.0218 ], [ "1986-12-31", 3.0539 ], [ "1987-12-31", 3.0121 ], [ "1988-12-31", 2.99 ], [ "1989-12-31", 3.0055 ], [ "1990-12-31", 3.1296 ], [ "1991-12-31", 3.1917 ], [ "1992-12-31", 3.2075 ], [ "1993-12-31", 3.3589 ], [ "1994-12-31", 3.3619 ], [ "1995-12-31", 3.4437 ], [ "1996-12-31", 3.4033 ], [ "1997-12-31", 3.4661 ], [ "1998-12-31", 3.5144 ], [ "1999-12-31", 3.5292 ], [ "2000-12-31", 3.5168 ], [ "2001-12-31", 3.4337 ], [ "2002-12-31", 3.4769 ], [ "2003-12-31", 3.4214 ], [ "2004-12-31", 3.5242 ], [ "2005-12-31", 3.5822 ], [ "2006-12-31", 3.6885 ], [ "2007-12-31", 3.7904 ], [ "2008-12-31", 4.1037 ], [ "2009-12-31", 4.3336 ], [ "2010-12-31", 4.4702 ], [ "2011-12-31", 4.5778 ], [ "2012-12-31", 4.8269 ], [ "2013-12-31", 5.0643 ], [ "2014-12-31", 5.31 ], [ "2015-12-31", 5.5099 ], [ "2016-12-31", 5.7547 ], [ "2017-12-31", 5.9478 ], [ "2018-12-31", 6.1997 ], [ "2019-12-31", 6.4857 ], [ "2020-12-31", 7.1009 ], [ "2021-12-31", 7.1218 ], [ "2022-12-31", 7.4417 ], [ "2023-12-31", 7.7023 ], [ "2024-12-31", 8.1645 ], [ "2025-12-31", 8.5908 ] ], "key": "renewable_share", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "food_price": { "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 136.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "start": "1990-01-01", "n": 441, "percentile": 97.5, "pressure": 97.5, "zscore": 1.67, "tau": 0.558, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2022-11-01", "change_10y": 39.9, "change_30y": 58.9, "note": "Die Schnittstelle zwischen planetaren Grenzen und politischer Stabilit\u00e4t: Nahrungsmittelpreisspitzen gingen 2008 und 2011 den gr\u00f6\u00dften Unruhewellen der j\u00fcngeren Geschichte unmittelbar voraus.", "source": "FAO Food Price Index (ab 1990)", "spark": [ [ "1990-01-01", 64.4 ], [ "1990-04-01", 66.0 ], [ "1990-08-01", 61.8 ], [ "1990-12-01", 62.2 ], [ "1991-03-01", 62.3 ], [ "1991-07-01", 62.2 ], [ "1991-11-01", 64.6 ], [ "1992-02-01", 65.9 ], [ "1992-06-01", 65.9 ], [ "1992-10-01", 61.8 ], [ "1993-01-01", 61.6 ], [ "1993-05-01", 62.4 ], [ "1993-09-01", 61.2 ], [ "1993-12-01", 64.7 ], [ "1994-04-01", 64.1 ], [ "1994-08-01", 66.6 ], [ "1994-11-01", 73.6 ], [ "1995-03-01", 75.5 ], [ "1995-07-01", 79.6 ], [ "1995-10-01", 80.5 ], [ "1996-02-01", 77.6 ], [ "1996-06-01", 80.7 ], [ "1996-09-01", 77.1 ], [ "1997-01-01", 71.0 ], [ "1997-05-01", 72.9 ], [ "1997-08-01", 70.0 ], [ "1997-12-01", 68.1 ], [ "1998-04-01", 67.0 ], [ "1998-07-01", 64.4 ], [ "1998-11-01", 62.8 ], [ "1999-03-01", 57.2 ], [ "1999-06-01", 54.8 ], [ "1999-10-01", 53.5 ], [ "2000-02-01", 52.5 ], [ "2000-05-01", 54.0 ], [ "2000-09-01", 52.9 ], [ "2001-01-01", 54.1 ], [ "2001-04-01", 55.0 ], [ "2001-08-01", 57.0 ], [ "2001-12-01", 54.6 ], [ "2002-04-01", 51.4 ], [ "2002-07-01", 52.3 ], [ "2002-11-01", 56.6 ], [ "2003-03-01", 55.9 ], [ "2003-06-01", 56.4 ], [ "2003-10-01", 60.6 ], [ "2004-02-01", 65.5 ], [ "2004-05-01", 66.8 ], [ "2004-09-01", 65.4 ], [ "2005-01-01", 65.8 ], [ "2005-04-01", 66.0 ], [ "2005-08-01", 67.6 ], [ "2005-12-01", 69.8 ], [ "2006-03-01", 69.8 ], [ "2006-07-01", 73.2 ], [ "2006-11-01", 77.7 ], [ "2007-02-01", 80.0 ], [ "2007-06-01", 91.4 ], [ "2007-10-01", 107.9 ], [ "2008-01-01", 120.4 ], [ "2008-05-01", 130.3 ], [ "2008-09-01", 112.8 ], [ "2008-12-01", 86.3 ], [ "2009-04-01", 87.4 ], [ "2009-08-01", 93.5 ], [ "2009-11-01", 98.9 ], [ "2010-03-01", 96.5 ], [ "2010-07-01", 100.0 ], [ "2010-10-01", 120.1 ], [ "2011-02-01", 137.7 ], [ "2011-06-01", 134.8 ], [ "2011-09-01", 130.1 ], [ "2012-01-01", 122.2 ], [ "2012-05-01", 119.0 ], [ "2012-08-01", 123.2 ], [ "2012-12-01", 122.8 ], [ "2013-04-01", 122.9 ], [ "2013-07-01", 118.0 ], [ "2013-11-01", 118.6 ], [ "2014-03-01", 122.1 ], [ "2014-07-01", 116.3 ], [ "2014-10-01", 109.3 ], [ "2015-02-01", 98.7 ], [ "2015-06-01", 94.6 ], [ "2015-09-01", 88.9 ], [ "2016-01-01", 84.9 ], [ "2016-05-01", 90.6 ], [ "2016-08-01", 95.3 ], [ "2016-12-01", 95.3 ], [ "2017-04-01", 95.0 ], [ "2017-07-01", 100.0 ], [ "2017-11-01", 98.8 ], [ "2018-03-01", 98.8 ], [ "2018-06-01", 96.8 ], [ "2018-10-01", 93.2 ], [ "2019-02-01", 93.8 ], [ "2019-05-01", 94.2 ], [ "2019-09-01", 93.2 ], [ "2020-01-01", 102.5 ], [ "2020-04-01", 92.4 ], [ "2020-08-01", 95.7 ], [ "2020-12-01", 108.5 ], [ "2021-03-01", 119.1 ], [ "2021-07-01", 124.4 ], [ "2021-11-01", 135.4 ], [ "2022-02-01", 141.7 ], [ "2022-06-01", 155.7 ], [ "2022-10-01", 136.7 ], [ "2023-01-01", 131.4 ], [ "2023-05-01", 124.5 ], [ "2023-09-01", 121.7 ], [ "2023-12-01", 119.1 ], [ "2024-04-01", 119.2 ], [ "2024-08-01", 121.7 ], [ "2024-11-01", 127.7 ], [ "2025-03-01", 127.2 ], [ "2025-07-01", 129.8 ], [ "2025-10-01", 126.4 ], [ "2026-02-01", 125.5 ], [ "2026-06-01", 130.1 ], [ "2026-09-01", 136.0 ] ], "key": "food_price", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "overshoot_day": { "label": "Earth Overshoot Day", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "Tag im Jahr", "danger": "low", "decimals": 0, "raw": 211.0, "as_of": "2026-12-31", "start": "1972-12-31", "n": 55, "percentile": 1.8, "pressure": 98.2, "zscore": 1.33, "tau": -0.896, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -16.0, "change_30y": -74.0, "note": "Der Tag, an dem die Menschheit die Jahresleistung der Biosph\u00e4re aufgebraucht hat. 1972 lag er im Dezember. Der Wert ist eine Modellrechnung des Global Footprint Network mit erheblicher Unsicherheit \u2014 als Richtung belastbar, als Punktwert nicht.", "source": "Global Footprint Network / overshootday.org (ab 1972)", "spark": [ [ "1972-12-31", 366.0 ], [ "1973-12-31", 350.0 ], [ "1974-12-31", 346.0 ], [ "1975-12-31", 346.0 ], [ "1976-12-31", 337.0 ], [ "1977-12-31", 331.0 ], [ "1978-12-31", 322.0 ], [ "1979-12-31", 311.0 ], [ "1980-12-31", 334.0 ], [ "1981-12-31", 335.0 ], [ "1982-12-31", 342.0 ], [ "1983-12-31", 349.0 ], [ "1984-12-31", 332.0 ], [ "1985-12-31", 321.0 ], [ "1986-12-31", 317.0 ], [ "1987-12-31", 309.0 ], [ "1988-12-31", 298.0 ], [ "1989-12-31", 295.0 ], [ "1990-12-31", 296.0 ], [ "1991-12-31", 300.0 ], [ "1992-12-31", 312.0 ], [ "1993-12-31", 307.0 ], [ "1994-12-31", 299.0 ], [ "1995-12-31", 290.0 ], [ "1996-12-31", 285.0 ], [ "1997-12-31", 285.0 ], [ "1998-12-31", 286.0 ], [ "1999-12-31", 275.0 ], [ "2000-12-31", 267.0 ], [ "2001-12-31", 261.0 ], [ "2002-12-31", 269.0 ], [ "2003-12-31", 261.0 ], [ "2004-12-31", 251.0 ], [ "2005-12-31", 244.0 ], [ "2006-12-31", 240.0 ], [ "2007-12-31", 232.0 ], [ "2008-12-31", 234.0 ], [ "2009-12-31", 240.0 ], [ "2010-12-31", 227.0 ], [ "2011-12-31", 222.0 ], [ "2012-12-31", 220.0 ], [ "2013-12-31", 219.0 ], [ "2014-12-31", 221.0 ], [ "2015-12-31", 224.0 ], [ "2016-12-31", 227.0 ], [ "2017-12-31", 220.0 ], [ "2018-12-31", 216.0 ], [ "2019-12-31", 218.0 ], [ "2020-12-31", 231.0 ], [ "2021-12-31", 217.0 ], [ "2022-12-31", 214.0 ], [ "2023-12-31", 214.0 ], [ "2024-12-31", 214.0 ], [ "2025-12-31", 213.0 ], [ "2026-12-31", 211.0 ] ], "key": "overshoot_day", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" } }, "psi": { "available": true, "psi": 42.4, "level": "HOCH", "verdict": "Krisenkonstellation weitgehend beisammen", "components": { "mmp": { "label": "Massenmobilisierungspotenzial", "short": "MMP", "question": "Wie stark verschlechtert sich die Lage der Mehrheit gegen\u00fcber dem Gesamtwohlstand?", "value": 60.3, "normalized": 0.603, "n_indicators": 5, "keys": [ "relative_wage", "labor_share", "housing_affordability", "life_expectancy", "real_wage_prod" ] }, "emp": { "label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion", "short": "EMP", "question": "Wie viele Elitenanw\u00e4rter konkurrieren um wie wenige Posten?", "value": 81.7, "normalized": 0.817, "n_indicators": 5, "keys": [ "top1_income_share", "wealth_top1", "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "tuition_real", "elite_squeeze" ] }, "sfd": { "label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise", "short": "SFD", "question": "Verliert der Staat die finanzielle Handlungsf\u00e4higkeit?", "value": 86.1, "normalized": 0.861, "n_indicators": 3, "keys": [ "debt_gdp", "interest_burden", "deficit_gdp" ] } }, "weakest": { "key": "mmp", "label": "Massenmobilisierungspotenzial", "value": 60.3 }, "method": "Produkt der drei auf 0\u20131 normierten Komponenten \u00d7 100. Multiplikativ wie bei Turchin: f\u00e4llt eine Bedingung aus, f\u00e4llt der Index. Perzentilbasierte Nachbildung mit US-Daten, nicht Turchins Originalreihe \u2014 Niveaus sind mit seinen Publikationen nicht direkt vergleichbar." }, "valves": { "valves": [ { "key": "zins", "label": "Zins-Ventil", "question": "Wie viel Zinssenkung bleibt der Notenbank f\u00fcr die n\u00e4chste Rezession?", "basis": "Aktueller Leitzins gegen den historisch typischen Senkungsbedarf. In den Rezessionen seit 1955 senkte die Fed im Mittel rund f\u00fcnf Prozentpunkte; was heute darunter liegt, fehlt im Ernstfall.", "room": 75.0, "status": "offen", "overshoot": null, "current": 3.75, "unit": "Prozentpunkte", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "reference_label": "typischer Zinssenkungsbedarf einer Rezession \u2248 5 Prozentpunkte", "reference_value": 5.0, "series_start": "1954-07-01", "spark": [ [ "1954-07-01", 0.8 ], [ "1955-03-01", 1.35 ], [ "1955-12-01", 2.48 ], [ "1956-09-01", 2.95 ], [ "1957-05-01", 3.0 ], [ "1958-02-01", 1.67 ], [ "1958-11-01", 2.27 ], [ "1959-07-01", 3.47 ], [ "1960-04-01", 3.92 ], [ "1961-01-01", 1.45 ], [ "1961-09-01", 1.88 ], [ "1962-06-01", 2.68 ], [ "1963-03-01", 2.98 ], [ "1963-11-01", 3.48 ], [ "1964-08-01", 3.5 ], [ "1965-05-01", 4.1 ], [ "1966-01-01", 4.42 ], [ "1966-10-01", 5.53 ], [ "1967-07-01", 3.79 ], [ "1968-03-01", 5.05 ], [ "1968-12-01", 6.02 ], [ "1969-09-01", 9.15 ], [ "1970-05-01", 7.95 ], [ "1971-02-01", 3.72 ], [ "1971-11-01", 4.91 ], [ "1972-07-01", 4.55 ], [ "1973-04-01", 7.12 ], [ "1974-01-01", 9.65 ], [ "1974-09-01", 11.34 ], [ "1975-06-01", 5.55 ], [ "1976-03-01", 4.84 ], [ "1976-11-01", 4.95 ], [ "1977-08-01", 5.9 ], [ "1978-05-01", 7.36 ], [ "1979-01-01", 10.07 ], [ "1979-10-01", 13.77 ], [ "1980-07-01", 9.03 ], [ "1981-03-01", 14.7 ], [ "1981-12-01", 12.37 ], [ "1982-09-01", 10.31 ], [ "1983-05-01", 8.63 ], [ "1984-02-01", 9.59 ], [ "1984-11-01", 9.43 ], [ "1985-07-01", 7.88 ], [ "1986-04-01", 6.99 ], [ "1987-01-01", 6.43 ], [ "1987-09-01", 7.22 ], [ "1988-06-01", 7.51 ], [ "1989-03-01", 9.85 ], [ "1989-11-01", 8.55 ], [ "1990-08-01", 8.13 ], [ "1991-05-01", 5.78 ], [ "1992-01-01", 4.03 ], [ "1992-10-01", 3.1 ], [ "1993-07-01", 3.06 ], [ "1994-03-01", 3.34 ], [ "1994-12-01", 5.45 ], [ "1995-09-01", 5.8 ], [ "1996-05-01", 5.24 ], [ "1997-02-01", 5.19 ], [ "1997-11-01", 5.52 ], [ "1998-07-01", 5.54 ], [ "1999-04-01", 4.74 ], [ "2000-01-01", 5.45 ], [ "2000-09-01", 6.52 ], [ "2001-06-01", 3.97 ], [ "2002-03-01", 1.73 ], [ "2002-11-01", 1.34 ], [ "2003-08-01", 1.03 ], [ "2004-05-01", 1.0 ], [ "2005-01-01", 2.28 ], [ "2005-10-01", 3.78 ], [ "2006-07-01", 5.24 ], [ "2007-03-01", 5.26 ], [ "2007-12-01", 4.24 ], [ "2008-09-01", 1.81 ], [ "2009-05-01", 0.18 ], [ "2010-02-01", 0.13 ], [ "2010-11-01", 0.19 ], [ "2011-07-01", 0.07 ], [ "2012-04-01", 0.14 ], [ "2013-01-01", 0.14 ], [ "2013-09-01", 0.08 ], [ "2014-06-01", 0.1 ], [ "2015-03-01", 0.11 ], [ "2015-11-01", 0.12 ], [ "2016-08-01", 0.4 ], [ "2017-05-01", 0.91 ], [ "2018-01-01", 1.41 ], [ "2018-10-01", 2.19 ], [ "2019-07-01", 2.4 ], [ "2020-03-01", 0.65 ], [ "2020-12-01", 0.09 ], [ "2021-09-01", 0.08 ], [ "2022-05-01", 0.77 ], [ "2023-02-01", 4.57 ], [ "2023-11-01", 5.33 ], [ "2024-07-01", 5.33 ], [ "2025-04-01", 4.33 ], [ "2026-01-01", 3.64 ], [ "2026-09-01", 3.75 ] ] }, { "key": "fiskal", "label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "question": "Kann der Staat noch gegensteuern, ohne dass die Zinslast ihn erdr\u00fcckt?", "basis": "Anteil der Bundeseinnahmen, der bereits f\u00fcr Zinsen gebunden ist, gegen eine Schwelle von 20 %. Die Schwelle ist eine Konvention, kein Naturgesetz \u2014 sie liegt knapp \u00fcber dem bisherigen H\u00f6chststand von 1991, ab dem in den USA politisch erzwungene Haushaltskonsolidierung einsetzte.", "room": 0.0, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "overshoot": 5.7, "current": 21.13, "unit": "% der Einnahmen", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "reference_label": "Belastungsschwelle 20 % der Bundeseinnahmen", "reference_value": 20.0, "series_start": "1947-01-01", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 12.3315 ], [ "1947-10-01", 12.4289 ], [ "1948-07-01", 13.3413 ], [ "1949-04-01", 15.4232 ], [ "1950-01-01", 14.6304 ], [ "1950-10-01", 11.2008 ], [ "1951-10-01", 10.3415 ], [ "1952-07-01", 10.4963 ], [ "1953-04-01", 10.1614 ], [ "1954-01-01", 12.1887 ], [ "1954-10-01", 12.0465 ], [ "1955-07-01", 11.0717 ], [ "1956-07-01", 11.8271 ], [ "1957-04-01", 12.2412 ], [ "1958-01-01", 13.4536 ], [ "1958-10-01", 12.9368 ], [ "1959-07-01", 13.3019 ], [ "1960-07-01", 14.8169 ], [ "1961-04-01", 14.6634 ], [ "1962-01-01", 14.4383 ], [ "1962-10-01", 14.7831 ], [ "1963-07-01", 14.6356 ], [ "1964-04-01", 15.9595 ], [ "1965-04-01", 15.2894 ], [ "1966-01-01", 14.7316 ], [ "1966-10-01", 14.8991 ], [ "1967-07-01", 14.8812 ], [ "1968-04-01", 14.7697 ], [ "1969-04-01", 13.7862 ], [ "1970-01-01", 16.9117 ], [ "1970-10-01", 18.9456 ], [ "1971-07-01", 18.5549 ], [ "1972-04-01", 17.1774 ], [ "1973-01-01", 16.8826 ], [ "1974-01-01", 17.3659 ], [ "1974-10-01", 17.4243 ], [ "1975-07-01", 18.3998 ], [ "1976-04-01", 18.213 ], [ "1977-01-01", 17.8644 ], [ "1978-01-01", 19.1243 ], [ "1978-10-01", 18.456 ], [ "1979-07-01", 18.6507 ], [ "1980-04-01", 20.8113 ], [ "1981-01-01", 20.8001 ], [ "1981-10-01", 22.7466 ], [ "1982-10-01", 25.408 ], [ "1983-07-01", 26.3846 ], [ "1984-04-01", 26.6572 ], [ "1985-01-01", 26.6641 ], [ "1985-10-01", 27.6392 ], [ "1986-10-01", 26.6408 ], [ "1987-07-01", 25.6459 ], [ "1988-04-01", 25.7442 ], [ "1989-01-01", 25.5308 ], [ "1989-10-01", 25.9383 ], [ "1990-07-01", 26.7167 ], [ "1991-07-01", 27.3878 ], [ "1992-04-01", 26.8267 ], [ "1993-01-01", 26.2276 ], [ "1993-10-01", 24.205 ], [ "1994-07-01", 24.1799 ], [ "1995-04-01", 24.8545 ], [ "1996-04-01", 23.3274 ], [ "1997-01-01", 22.4226 ], [ "1997-10-01", 21.5041 ], [ "1998-07-01", 20.2496 ], [ "1999-04-01", 18.6794 ], [ "2000-04-01", 17.2209 ], [ "2001-01-01", 16.3652 ], [ "2001-10-01", 15.7933 ], [ "2002-07-01", 16.0548 ], [ "2003-04-01", 15.1789 ], [ "2004-01-01", 15.2598 ], [ "2005-01-01", 14.6874 ], [ "2005-10-01", 14.8823 ], [ "2006-07-01", 14.6828 ], [ "2007-04-01", 15.2536 ], [ "2008-01-01", 15.2892 ], [ "2009-01-01", 16.2825 ], [ "2009-10-01", 15.4066 ], [ "2010-07-01", 15.6746 ], [ "2011-04-01", 16.5045 ], [ "2012-01-01", 16.0792 ], [ "2012-10-01", 15.0535 ], [ "2013-10-01", 13.0944 ], [ "2014-07-01", 13.3822 ], [ "2015-04-01", 12.3607 ], [ "2016-01-01", 12.9508 ], [ "2016-10-01", 13.2186 ], [ "2017-10-01", 13.8885 ], [ "2018-07-01", 15.1935 ], [ "2019-04-01", 15.9371 ], [ "2020-01-01", 14.3522 ], [ "2020-10-01", 13.1033 ], [ "2021-07-01", 12.9633 ], [ "2022-07-01", 14.5877 ], [ "2023-04-01", 18.7131 ], [ "2024-01-01", 21.1965 ], [ "2024-10-01", 21.9074 ], [ "2025-07-01", 21.2742 ], [ "2026-04-01", 21.1317 ] ] }, { "key": "notenbank", "label": "Notenbankbilanz-Ventil", "question": "Wie viel Spielraum bleibt f\u00fcr Anleihek\u00e4ufe?", "basis": "Bilanzsumme der Fed im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum BIP, gemessen an ihrem eigenen historischen H\u00f6chststand. Wichtige Einschr\u00e4nkung: F\u00fcr Anleihek\u00e4ufe gibt es keine harte Obergrenze \u2014 die Schranke ist die Inflations- und Vertrauenstoleranz, und die ist nicht direkt messbar.", "room": 49.3, "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt", "overshoot": null, "current": 20.72, "unit": "% des BIP", "as_of": "2026-10-07", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 2002", "reference_value": 35.15, "series_start": "2002-12-18", "spark": [ [ "2002-12-18", 6.4394 ], [ "2003-03-12", 6.3381 ], [ "2003-06-04", 6.3257 ], [ "2003-09-03", 6.3748 ], [ "2003-11-26", 6.3485 ], [ "2004-02-25", 6.1973 ], [ "2004-05-19", 6.1508 ], [ "2004-08-18", 6.1274 ], [ "2004-11-10", 6.3899 ], [ "2005-02-02", 6.3032 ], [ "2005-05-04", 6.2093 ], [ "2005-07-27", 6.1956 ], [ "2005-10-26", 6.1475 ], [ "2006-01-18", 6.1477 ], [ "2006-04-19", 6.081 ], [ "2006-07-12", 6.0878 ], [ "2006-10-04", 5.9994 ], [ "2007-01-03", 6.1526 ], [ "2007-03-28", 6.0394 ], [ "2007-06-27", 5.94 ], [ "2007-09-19", 5.8969 ], [ "2007-12-19", 6.038 ], [ "2008-03-12", 6.0311 ], [ "2008-06-04", 6.0134 ], [ "2008-09-03", 6.1969 ], [ "2008-11-26", 14.5945 ], [ "2009-02-25", 13.3237 ], [ "2009-05-20", 15.099 ], [ "2009-08-19", 14.0646 ], [ "2009-11-11", 14.5724 ], [ "2010-02-03", 15.2345 ], [ "2010-05-05", 15.5283 ], [ "2010-07-28", 15.357 ], [ "2010-10-27", 14.9933 ], [ "2011-01-19", 15.7976 ], [ "2011-04-20", 17.2635 ], [ "2011-07-13", 18.393 ], [ "2011-10-05", 18.0511 ], [ "2012-01-04", 18.1575 ], [ "2012-03-28", 17.7585 ], [ "2012-06-27", 17.5467 ], [ "2012-09-19", 17.1833 ], [ "2012-12-19", 17.5408 ], [ "2013-03-13", 18.922 ], [ "2013-06-05", 20.0555 ], [ "2013-09-04", 21.2551 ], [ "2013-11-27", 22.8279 ], [ "2014-02-26", 23.7462 ], [ "2014-05-21", 24.3064 ], [ "2014-08-20", 24.6366 ], [ "2014-11-12", 25.0607 ], [ "2015-02-04", 24.914 ], [ "2015-05-06", 24.468 ], [ "2015-07-29", 24.3755 ], [ "2015-10-28", 24.3521 ], [ "2016-01-20", 24.23 ], [ "2016-04-20", 23.9964 ], [ "2016-07-13", 23.6717 ], [ "2016-10-05", 23.3607 ], [ "2017-01-04", 23.0969 ], [ "2017-03-29", 22.9935 ], [ "2017-06-28", 22.6651 ], [ "2017-09-20", 22.2516 ], [ "2017-12-20", 21.8779 ], [ "2018-03-14", 21.4143 ], [ "2018-06-06", 20.7666 ], [ "2018-09-05", 20.1191 ], [ "2018-11-28", 19.4072 ], [ "2019-02-27", 18.5746 ], [ "2019-05-22", 17.776 ], [ "2019-08-21", 17.1651 ], [ "2019-11-13", 18.4555 ], [ "2020-02-05", 19.1562 ], [ "2020-05-06", 33.6773 ], [ "2020-07-29", 32.0166 ], [ "2020-10-28", 32.355 ], [ "2021-01-20", 32.6583 ], [ "2021-04-21", 33.3421 ], [ "2021-07-14", 34.1752 ], [ "2021-10-06", 34.0973 ], [ "2022-01-05", 34.702 ], [ "2022-03-30", 34.5472 ], [ "2022-06-29", 33.8463 ], [ "2022-09-21", 32.9303 ], [ "2022-12-21", 31.4391 ], [ "2023-03-15", 31.3769 ], [ "2023-06-07", 29.8935 ], [ "2023-09-06", 28.4613 ], [ "2023-11-29", 27.0763 ], [ "2024-02-28", 25.8879 ], [ "2024-05-22", 24.6872 ], [ "2024-08-21", 23.8559 ], [ "2024-11-13", 23.2784 ], [ "2025-02-05", 22.5737 ], [ "2025-05-07", 21.9094 ], [ "2025-07-30", 21.3036 ], [ "2025-10-29", 20.9361 ], [ "2026-01-21", 20.6373 ], [ "2026-04-22", 20.5983 ], [ "2026-07-15", 20.7076 ], [ "2026-10-07", 20.7215 ] ] }, { "key": "globalisierung", "label": "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "question": "Lassen sich Kosten weiter \u00fcber die Ausweitung des Weltmarkts dr\u00fccken?", "basis": "Welthandel im Verh\u00e4ltnis zur Weltwirtschaftsleistung, gemessen an seinem eigenen H\u00f6chststand. Der Weltmarkt ist heute so tief integriert wie nie; je n\u00e4her am Maximum, desto weniger zus\u00e4tzliche Kostenentlastung ist aus weiterer Integration noch zu holen. Der vorl\u00e4ufige Jahrgang 2025 wird vom Revisionsfilter verworfen \u2014 die Weltbank meldete dort einen Sprung um zw\u00f6lf Prozentpunkte, den es real nicht gegeben hat.", "room": 14.9, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "overshoot": null, "current": 56.72, "unit": "% des BIP", "as_of": "2024-12-31", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 1970", "reference_value": 62.15, "series_start": "1970-12-31", "spark": [ [ "1970-12-31", 25.7517 ], [ "1971-12-31", 25.7872 ], [ "1972-12-31", 25.9755 ], [ "1973-12-31", 29.0 ], [ "1974-12-31", 33.7438 ], [ "1975-12-31", 31.9417 ], [ "1976-12-31", 32.7264 ], [ "1977-12-31", 33.0914 ], [ "1978-12-31", 33.4872 ], [ "1979-12-31", 35.6586 ], [ "1980-12-31", 38.633 ], [ "1981-12-31", 39.0665 ], [ "1982-12-31", 37.06 ], [ "1983-12-31", 36.2191 ], [ "1984-12-31", 37.5128 ], [ "1985-12-31", 37.0591 ], [ "1986-12-31", 34.5896 ], [ "1987-12-31", 35.8556 ], [ "1988-12-31", 37.6634 ], [ "1989-12-31", 38.0541 ], [ "1990-12-31", 38.1012 ], [ "1991-12-31", 37.7627 ], [ "1992-12-31", 40.6473 ], [ "1993-12-31", 40.1719 ], [ "1994-12-31", 41.0188 ], [ "1995-12-31", 42.7421 ], [ "1996-12-31", 42.8247 ], [ "1997-12-31", 44.6337 ], [ "1998-12-31", 45.2911 ], [ "1999-12-31", 45.7602 ], [ "2000-12-31", 50.1204 ], [ "2001-12-31", 49.011 ], [ "2002-12-31", 49.0032 ], [ "2003-12-31", 50.6554 ], [ "2004-12-31", 54.1946 ], [ "2005-12-31", 56.2196 ], [ "2006-12-31", 58.3626 ], [ "2007-12-31", 58.7424 ], [ "2008-12-31", 60.3226 ], [ "2009-12-31", 51.8943 ], [ "2010-12-31", 56.1928 ], [ "2011-12-31", 59.3107 ], [ "2012-12-31", 59.2954 ], [ "2013-12-31", 58.6308 ], [ "2014-12-31", 58.0268 ], [ "2015-12-31", 55.6182 ], [ "2016-12-31", 53.7909 ], [ "2017-12-31", 55.4552 ], [ "2018-12-31", 56.9897 ], [ "2019-12-31", 55.8007 ], [ "2020-12-31", 51.8676 ], [ "2021-12-31", 56.499 ], [ "2022-12-31", 62.1471 ], [ "2023-12-31", 58.0659 ], [ "2024-12-31", 56.7228 ] ] }, { "key": "haushalte", "label": "Privatverschuldungs-Ventil", "question": "K\u00f6nnen private Haushalte noch mehr Nachfrage auf Kredit vorziehen?", "basis": "Schuldendienstquote der Haushalte gegen ihren eigenen H\u00f6chststand von 2007. Dieses Ventil wurde nach 2008 tats\u00e4chlich entlastet \u2014 das Panel zeigt hier bewusst, wo noch Weg ist.", "room": 69.7, "status": "offen", "overshoot": null, "current": 11.11, "unit": "% des verf\u00fcgbaren Einkommens", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 2005", "reference_value": 15.85, "series_start": "2005-01-01", "spark": [ [ "2005-01-01", 14.7998 ], [ "2005-04-01", 14.8286 ], [ "2005-07-01", 15.14 ], [ "2005-10-01", 15.0285 ], [ "2006-01-01", 14.9894 ], [ "2006-04-01", 15.0443 ], [ "2006-07-01", 15.3672 ], [ "2006-10-01", 15.5097 ], [ "2007-01-01", 15.5266 ], [ "2007-04-01", 15.6325 ], [ "2007-07-01", 15.7121 ], [ "2007-10-01", 15.8464 ], [ "2008-01-01", 15.7759 ], [ "2008-04-01", 15.3266 ], [ "2008-07-01", 15.5465 ], [ "2008-10-01", 15.7214 ], [ "2009-01-01", 15.5975 ], [ "2009-04-01", 15.252 ], [ "2009-07-01", 15.0859 ], [ "2009-10-01", 14.8964 ], [ "2010-01-01", 14.5149 ], [ "2010-04-01", 14.0698 ], [ "2010-07-01", 13.9178 ], [ "2010-10-01", 13.5809 ], [ "2011-01-01", 13.3085 ], [ "2011-04-01", 13.0577 ], [ "2011-07-01", 12.9446 ], [ "2011-10-01", 12.7497 ], [ "2012-01-01", 12.2371 ], [ "2012-04-01", 12.0341 ], [ "2012-07-01", 12.0831 ], [ "2012-10-01", 11.754 ], [ "2013-01-01", 12.0066 ], [ "2013-04-01", 11.7944 ], [ "2013-07-01", 11.8377 ], [ "2013-10-01", 11.9853 ], [ "2014-01-01", 11.8838 ], [ "2014-04-01", 11.6211 ], [ "2014-07-01", 11.6469 ], [ "2014-10-01", 11.632 ], [ "2015-01-01", 11.5566 ], [ "2015-04-01", 11.4851 ], [ "2015-07-01", 11.6065 ], [ "2015-10-01", 11.739 ], [ "2016-01-01", 11.7632 ], [ "2016-04-01", 11.7661 ], [ "2016-07-01", 11.7699 ], [ "2016-10-01", 11.8658 ], [ "2017-01-01", 11.7238 ], [ "2017-04-01", 11.757 ], [ "2017-07-01", 11.8184 ], [ "2017-10-01", 11.8167 ], [ "2018-01-01", 11.6446 ], [ "2018-04-01", 11.5984 ], [ "2018-07-01", 11.6196 ], [ "2018-10-01", 11.6664 ], [ "2019-01-01", 11.4999 ], [ "2019-04-01", 11.627 ], [ "2019-07-01", 11.6466 ], [ "2019-10-01", 11.7277 ], [ "2020-01-01", 11.5912 ], [ "2020-04-01", 9.7398 ], [ "2020-07-01", 10.0585 ], [ "2020-10-01", 10.3894 ], [ "2021-01-01", 9.0515 ], [ "2021-04-01", 9.841 ], [ "2021-07-01", 10.0096 ], [ "2021-10-01", 10.2288 ], [ "2022-01-01", 10.4724 ], [ "2022-04-01", 10.6847 ], [ "2022-07-01", 10.5678 ], [ "2022-10-01", 10.7369 ], [ "2023-01-01", 10.5641 ], [ "2023-04-01", 10.577 ], [ "2023-07-01", 10.7478 ], [ "2023-10-01", 11.0961 ], [ "2024-01-01", 11.0589 ], [ "2024-04-01", 11.0194 ], [ "2024-07-01", 11.1388 ], [ "2024-10-01", 11.1225 ], [ "2025-01-01", 11.1054 ], [ "2025-04-01", 11.1242 ], [ "2025-07-01", 11.2295 ], [ "2025-10-01", 11.3228 ], [ "2026-01-01", 11.1589 ], [ "2026-04-01", 11.1114 ] ] }, { "key": "demografie", "label": "Arbeitskr\u00e4fte-Ventil", "question": "Kann Wachstum noch aus zus\u00e4tzlichen Erwerbst\u00e4tigen kommen?", "basis": "Erwerbsbeteiligung gegen ihren historischen H\u00f6chststand von 2000. Die Ausweitung des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials \u2014 vor allem durch die Erwerbst\u00e4tigkeit von Frauen ab den 1960ern \u2014 war ein tragender Wachstumsbeitrag, der so kein zweites Mal verf\u00fcgbar ist.", "room": 40.2, "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt", "overshoot": null, "current": 61.8, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 1948", "reference_value": 58.1, "series_start": "1948-01-01", "spark": [ [ "1948-01-01", 58.6 ], [ "1948-10-01", 58.7 ], [ "1949-07-01", 58.9 ], [ "1950-05-01", 59.1 ], [ "1951-02-01", 59.1 ], [ "1951-12-01", 59.6 ], [ "1952-09-01", 59.2 ], [ "1953-07-01", 58.9 ], [ "1954-04-01", 59.2 ], [ "1955-01-01", 58.6 ], [ "1955-11-01", 59.9 ], [ "1956-08-01", 60.0 ], [ "1957-06-01", 59.8 ], [ "1958-03-01", 59.3 ], [ "1959-01-01", 59.3 ], [ "1959-10-01", 59.4 ], [ "1960-08-01", 59.5 ], [ "1961-05-01", 59.4 ], [ "1962-02-01", 59.0 ], [ "1962-12-01", 58.4 ], [ "1963-09-01", 58.7 ], [ "1964-07-01", 58.6 ], [ "1965-04-01", 58.8 ], [ "1966-02-01", 58.8 ], [ "1966-11-01", 59.6 ], [ "1967-09-01", 59.7 ], [ "1968-06-01", 60.0 ], [ "1969-03-01", 59.9 ], [ "1970-01-01", 60.4 ], [ "1970-10-01", 60.4 ], [ "1971-08-01", 60.2 ], [ "1972-05-01", 60.4 ], [ "1973-03-01", 60.8 ], [ "1973-12-01", 61.2 ], [ "1974-09-01", 61.4 ], [ "1975-07-01", 61.3 ], [ "1976-04-01", 61.6 ], [ "1977-02-01", 61.9 ], [ "1977-11-01", 62.8 ], [ "1978-09-01", 63.3 ], [ "1979-06-01", 63.5 ], [ "1980-04-01", 63.8 ], [ "1981-01-01", 63.9 ], [ "1981-10-01", 63.8 ], [ "1982-08-01", 64.1 ], [ "1983-05-01", 63.7 ], [ "1984-03-01", 64.1 ], [ "1984-12-01", 64.6 ], [ "1985-10-01", 65.0 ], [ "1986-07-01", 65.4 ], [ "1987-05-01", 65.7 ], [ "1988-02-01", 65.9 ], [ "1988-11-01", 66.2 ], [ "1989-09-01", 66.4 ], [ "1990-06-01", 66.4 ], [ "1991-04-01", 66.4 ], [ "1992-01-01", 66.3 ], [ "1992-11-01", 66.3 ], [ "1993-08-01", 66.4 ], [ "1994-05-01", 66.6 ], [ "1995-03-01", 66.7 ], [ "1995-12-01", 66.4 ], [ "1996-10-01", 67.0 ], [ "1997-07-01", 67.2 ], [ "1998-05-01", 67.0 ], [ "1999-02-01", 67.2 ], [ "1999-12-01", 67.1 ], [ "2000-09-01", 66.9 ], [ "2001-06-01", 66.7 ], [ "2002-04-01", 66.7 ], [ "2003-01-01", 66.4 ], [ "2003-11-01", 66.1 ], [ "2004-08-01", 66.0 ], [ "2005-06-01", 66.1 ], [ "2006-03-01", 66.2 ], [ "2007-01-01", 66.4 ], [ "2007-10-01", 65.8 ], [ "2008-07-01", 66.1 ], [ "2009-05-01", 65.7 ], [ "2010-02-01", 64.9 ], [ "2010-12-01", 64.3 ], [ "2011-09-01", 64.2 ], [ "2012-07-01", 63.7 ], [ "2013-04-01", 63.4 ], [ "2014-01-01", 62.9 ], [ "2014-11-01", 62.9 ], [ "2015-08-01", 62.6 ], [ "2016-06-01", 62.7 ], [ "2017-03-01", 62.9 ], [ "2018-01-01", 62.7 ], [ "2018-10-01", 62.9 ], [ "2019-08-01", 63.1 ], [ "2020-05-01", 60.8 ], [ "2021-02-01", 61.4 ], [ "2021-12-01", 62.0 ], [ "2022-09-01", 62.2 ], [ "2023-07-01", 62.6 ], [ "2024-04-01", 62.6 ], [ "2025-02-01", 62.5 ], [ "2025-12-01", 62.4 ], [ "2026-09-01", 61.8 ] ] }, { "key": "legitimation", "label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "question": "Tr\u00e4gt die Bev\u00f6lkerung weitere Zumutungen noch mit?", "basis": "Verbrauchervertrauen gegen seine eigene Spanne seit 1952. Steht stellvertretend f\u00fcr die Bereitschaft, als alternativlos erkl\u00e4rte Verschlechterungen hinzunehmen \u2014 der schw\u00e4chste Messwert im Ventilpanel, weil Zustimmung sich schlechter quantifizieren l\u00e4sst als Zinsen.", "room": 10.3, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "overshoot": null, "current": 51.7, "unit": "Index", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 1952", "reference_value": 44.8, "series_start": "1952-11-01", "spark": [ [ "1952-11-01", 86.2 ], [ "1954-11-01", 87.0 ], [ "1957-05-01", 92.9 ], [ "1960-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "1961-11-01", 93.0 ], [ "1963-05-01", 91.7 ], [ "1965-02-01", 102.0 ], [ "1966-11-01", 88.3 ], [ "1968-08-01", 92.4 ], [ "1970-02-01", 78.1 ], [ "1971-11-01", 82.0 ], [ "1973-08-01", 72.0 ], [ "1975-05-01", 72.8 ], [ "1976-11-01", 87.0 ], [ "1978-03-01", 78.8 ], [ "1978-10-01", 79.3 ], [ "1979-05-01", 68.1 ], [ "1979-11-01", 63.3 ], [ "1980-06-01", 58.7 ], [ "1981-01-01", 71.4 ], [ "1981-08-01", 77.2 ], [ "1982-02-01", 66.5 ], [ "1982-09-01", 69.3 ], [ "1983-04-01", 89.1 ], [ "1983-11-01", 91.1 ], [ "1984-06-01", 95.5 ], [ "1984-12-01", 92.9 ], [ "1985-07-01", 94.0 ], [ "1986-02-01", 95.9 ], [ "1986-09-01", 91.9 ], [ "1987-03-01", 90.8 ], [ "1987-10-01", 89.3 ], [ "1988-05-01", 94.8 ], [ "1988-12-01", 91.9 ], [ "1989-06-01", 90.6 ], [ "1990-01-01", 93.0 ], [ "1990-08-01", 76.4 ], [ "1991-03-01", 87.7 ], [ "1991-09-01", 83.0 ], [ "1992-04-01", 77.2 ], [ "1992-11-01", 85.3 ], [ "1993-06-01", 81.5 ], [ "1993-12-01", 88.2 ], [ "1994-07-01", 89.0 ], [ "1995-02-01", 95.1 ], [ "1995-09-01", 88.9 ], [ "1996-03-01", 93.7 ], [ "1996-10-01", 96.5 ], [ "1997-05-01", 103.2 ], [ "1997-12-01", 102.1 ], [ "1998-07-01", 105.2 ], [ "1999-01-01", 103.9 ], [ "1999-08-01", 104.5 ], [ "2000-03-01", 107.1 ], [ "2000-10-01", 105.8 ], [ "2001-04-01", 88.4 ], [ "2001-11-01", 83.9 ], [ "2002-06-01", 92.4 ], [ "2003-01-01", 82.4 ], [ "2003-07-01", 90.9 ], [ "2004-02-01", 94.4 ], [ "2004-09-01", 94.2 ], [ "2005-04-01", 87.7 ], [ "2005-10-01", 74.2 ], [ "2006-05-01", 79.1 ], [ "2006-12-01", 91.7 ], [ "2007-07-01", 90.4 ], [ "2008-01-01", 78.4 ], [ "2008-08-01", 63.0 ], [ "2009-03-01", 57.3 ], [ "2009-10-01", 70.6 ], [ "2010-04-01", 72.2 ], [ "2010-11-01", 71.6 ], [ "2011-06-01", 71.5 ], [ "2012-01-01", 75.0 ], [ "2012-08-01", 74.3 ], [ "2013-02-01", 77.6 ], [ "2013-09-01", 77.5 ], [ "2014-04-01", 84.1 ], [ "2014-11-01", 88.8 ], [ "2015-05-01", 90.7 ], [ "2015-12-01", 92.6 ], [ "2016-07-01", 90.0 ], [ "2017-02-01", 96.3 ], [ "2017-08-01", 96.8 ], [ "2018-03-01", 101.4 ], [ "2018-10-01", 98.6 ], [ "2019-05-01", 100.0 ], [ "2019-11-01", 96.8 ], [ "2020-06-01", 78.1 ], [ "2021-01-01", 79.0 ], [ "2021-08-01", 70.3 ], [ "2022-02-01", 62.8 ], [ "2022-09-01", 58.6 ], [ "2023-04-01", 63.7 ], [ "2023-11-01", 61.3 ], [ "2024-05-01", 69.1 ], [ "2024-12-01", 74.0 ], [ "2025-07-01", 61.7 ], [ "2026-02-01", 56.6 ], [ "2026-08-01", 51.7 ] ] }, { "key": "oekologie", "label": "\u00d6kologisches Ventil", "question": "Wie viele planetare Grenzen sind noch nicht \u00fcberschritten?", "basis": "Feste Zahl aus dem Planetary Health Check 2025: Von neun planetaren Grenzen gelten sieben als \u00fcberschritten \u2014 die Ozeanversauerung erstmals in diesem Bericht. Nicht \u00fcberschritten sind nur die Aerosolbelastung und die stratosph\u00e4rische Ozonschicht, letztere ausgerechnet dank des einzigen erfolgreich umgesetzten globalen Umweltabkommens.", "room": 22.2, "status": "eng", "overshoot": null, "current": 7.0, "unit": "Grenzen", "as_of": "2025-12-31", "reference_label": "2 von 9 planetaren Grenzen noch eingehalten (Planetary Health Check 2025)", "reference_value": 9, "series_start": "2025-12-31", "spark": [ [ "2025-12-31", 7.0 ] ] } ], "mean_room": 35.2, "n_tight": 4, "n_total": 8, "method": "Restweg = Abstand zum offengelegten Referenzpunkt. Bei \u201eBedarf\u201c ist der Referenzpunkt ein begr\u00fcndeter Bedarfswert, bei \u201eSpanne\u201c das angespannteste je gemessene Niveau der Reihe selbst. Beides sind gesetzte Konventionen, keine Naturkonstanten." }, "redeemability": { "available": true, "valves": [ { "key": "zins", "label": "Zins-Ventil", "question": "Wie viel Zinssenkung bleibt der Notenbank f\u00fcr die n\u00e4chste Rezession?", "room": 75.0, "status": "offen", "direction": { "factor": 0.6, "tau": -0.87, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend", "window_years": 2.0, "window_from": "2024-09-01", "tau_long": 0.2, "toward_long": "\u00f6ffnend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 2.0, "from": "2024-09-01", "n": 25, "tau": -0.87, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 3.0, "from": "2023-10-01", "n": 36, "tau": -0.89, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-09-01", "n": 61, "tau": 0.11, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-09-01", "n": 121, "tau": 0.38, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-09-01", "n": 241, "tau": 0.2, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre \u00f6ffnend, \u00fcber 2 Jahre schlie\u00dfend" }, "check": { "available": true, "nominal_room": 75.0, "effective_room": 10.9, "effective_label": "realer Leitzins gegen den medianen realen Senkungshub", "effective_basis": "Realer Leitzins (Leitzins minus Kerninflation Core PCE) gegen den Median des realen Senkungshubs von 5,70 Punkten \u00fcber 10 Rezessionen seit 1957. Beide Gr\u00f6\u00dfen aus denselben Reihen gerechnet wie der nominale Restweg \u2014 nur in der Einheit, die materiell bindet.", "current_real": 0.62, "current_nominal": 3.75, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "cut_depths": { "rows": [ { "recession": "1957-08 \u2013 1958-04", "nominal_from": 4.0, "nominal_to": 3.84, "nominal_cut": 0.16 }, { "recession": "1960-04 \u2013 1961-02", "nominal_from": 4.0, "nominal_to": 1.17, "nominal_cut": 2.83 }, { "recession": "1969-12 \u2013 1970-11", "nominal_from": 9.19, "nominal_to": 3.3, "nominal_cut": 5.89, "real_from": 4.54, "real_to": -1.3, "real_cut": 5.84 }, { "recession": "1973-11 \u2013 1975-03", "nominal_from": 12.92, "nominal_to": 4.61, "nominal_cut": 8.31, "real_from": 4.7, "real_to": -4.4, "real_cut": 9.1 }, { "recession": "1980-01 \u2013 1980-07", "nominal_from": 19.1, "nominal_to": 12.37, "nominal_cut": 6.73, "real_from": 10.2, "real_to": 4.65, "real_cut": 5.55 }, { "recession": "1981-07 \u2013 1982-11", "nominal_from": 19.1, "nominal_to": 8.51, "nominal_cut": 10.59, "real_from": 10.2, "real_to": 2.62, "real_cut": 7.58 }, { "recession": "1990-07 \u2013 1991-03", "nominal_from": 9.24, "nominal_to": 2.92, "nominal_cut": 6.32, "real_from": 5.18, "real_to": 0.12, "real_cut": 5.06 }, { "recession": "2001-03 \u2013 2001-11", "nominal_from": 6.54, "nominal_to": 1.0, "nominal_cut": 5.54, "real_from": 4.75, "real_to": -0.69, "real_cut": 5.44 }, { "recession": "2007-12 \u2013 2009-06", "nominal_from": 5.26, "nominal_to": 0.09, "nominal_cut": 5.17, "real_from": 2.7, "real_to": -1.62, "real_cut": 4.32 }, { "recession": "2020-02 \u2013 2020-04", "nominal_from": 2.42, "nominal_to": 0.05, "nominal_cut": 2.37, "real_from": 0.78, "real_to": -5.49, "real_cut": 6.27 } ], "median_nominal": 5.71, "median_real": 5.7, "median_real_start": 4.72, "n": 10 }, "transmission": { "available": true, "from_date": "2023-07-27", "to_date": "2026-05-19", "policy_from": 5.33, "policy_to": 3.62, "policy_delta": -1.71, "long_from": 4.01, "long_to": 4.67, "premium_from": 0.15, "premium_to": 0.86, "long_delta": 0.66, "passed_through": false, "premium_delta": 0.71 }, "findings": [ "Der reale Leitzins steht bei +0,62 % \u2014 nominal 3,75 % minus 3,13 % Kerninflation. Der nominale Restweg ist damit eine Illusion der Messgr\u00f6\u00dfe: Gemessen wird, was die Notenbank SETZEN kann, nicht, was sie LOCKERN kann.", "Der Einwand \u201ein der Rezession f\u00e4llt die Inflation mit\u201c ist gepr\u00fcft und tr\u00e4gt nicht: \u00dcber 10 Rezessionen seit 1957 liegt der mediane REALE Senkungshub bei 5,70 Punkten und damit nicht unter dem nominalen (5,71). Die Fed musste real genauso tief gehen wie nominal.", "Entscheidend ist der Startpunkt: Im Median begann die Fed ihre Senkungen bei einem realen Leitzins von +4,72 %. Heute startet sie bei +0,62 % \u2014 der reale Puffer, aus dem heraus historisch gesenkt wurde, ist aufgebraucht.", "Die letzte Bet\u00e4tigung ist nicht angekommen: Zwischen 2023-07-27 und 2026-05-19 senkte die Fed um 1,71 Punkte, w\u00e4hrend die zehnj\u00e4hrige Rendite um +0,66 Punkte lief und die Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie um +0,71 Punkte stieg. Am langen Ende \u2014 Staatsrefinanzierung, Hypotheken, Unternehmenskredite \u2014 kam von der Lockerung nichts an." ], "evidence": "A" } }, { "key": "notenbank", "label": "Notenbankbilanz-Ventil", "question": "Wie viel Spielraum bleibt f\u00fcr Anleihek\u00e4ufe?", "room": 49.3, "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt", "direction": { "factor": 0.2, "tau": -0.69, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend", "window_years": 2.0, "window_from": "2024-10-09", "tau_long": 0.49, "toward_long": "schlie\u00dfend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 2.0, "from": "2024-10-09", "n": 105, "tau": -0.69, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 3.0, "from": "2023-10-11", "n": 157, "tau": -0.86, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-10-13", "n": 261, "tau": -0.93, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-10-12", "n": 522, "tau": -0.07, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-10-11", "n": 1044, "tau": 0.49, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre schlie\u00dfend, \u00fcber 2 Jahre \u00f6ffnend" }, "check": { "available": true, "nominal_room": 49.3, "effective_room": null, "effective_label": "nicht als eine Zahl bestimmbar", "effective_basis": "F\u00fcr Anleihek\u00e4ufe existiert keine harte Obergrenze; die Schranke ist die Inflations- und Vertrauenstoleranz und damit nicht messbar. Ein effektiver Restweg wird deshalb NICHT gerechnet \u2014 stattdessen werden die beiden pr\u00fcfbaren Nebenbedingungen ausgewiesen: ob die Bilanz bereits wieder w\u00e4chst, und wie weit die Reserven \u00fcber der empirischen Knappheitsgrenze stehen.", "reserves_now": 9.3, "reserves_floor": 6.36, "reserves_buffer": 2.94, "balance_now": 20.72, "balance_delta_1y": -0.22, "balance_abs_now": 6.748, "balance_abs_delta_1y": 0.16, "as_of": "2026-10-07", "findings": [ "Die Bilanzverk\u00fcrzung ist absolut beendet: Die Fed-Bilanz steht bei 6,75 Billionen Dollar und damit 160 Milliarden \u00fcber dem Stand vor einem Jahr. Als BIP-Anteil f\u00e4llt sie trotzdem leicht \u2014 nicht weil die Bilanz schrumpft, sondern weil das nominale BIP schneller w\u00e4chst. F\u00fcr die Frage, ob das Ventil gerade bet\u00e4tigt wird, z\u00e4hlt die absolute Bewegung: Es wird.", "Die Bilanz liegt bei 20,72 % des BIP, -0,22 Punkte gegen\u00fcber dem Vorjahr.", "Der Reservepuffer betr\u00e4gt +2,94 Punkte: 9,30 % des BIP heute gegen 6,36 % im September 2019, als der Repo-Markt riss und die Fed die Verk\u00fcrzung abbrechen musste. Das ist die empirische Untergrenze dieser Bilanz \u2014 kein theoretischer Wert, sondern die Wand, an die das System zuletzt lief.", "Das Jahrestief der Reserven lag bei 8,89 % (2026-09-02); seither steigen sie wieder. K\u00e4ufe in dieser Lage st\u00fctzen den Geldmarkt, sie lockern nicht." ], "evidence": "B" } }, { "key": "haushalte", "label": "Privatverschuldungs-Ventil", "question": "K\u00f6nnen private Haushalte noch mehr Nachfrage auf Kredit vorziehen?", "room": 69.7, "status": "offen", "direction": { "factor": 0.43, "tau": 0.33, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend", "window_years": 2.0, "window_from": "2024-04-01", "tau_long": -0.7, "toward_long": "\u00f6ffnend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 2.0, "from": "2024-04-01", "n": 9, "tau": 0.33, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 3.0, "from": "2023-07-01", "n": 12, "tau": 0.55, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-04-01", "n": 21, "tau": 0.8, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-04-01", "n": 41, "tau": -0.26, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-04-01", "n": 81, "tau": -0.7, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre \u00f6ffnend, \u00fcber 2 Jahre schlie\u00dfend" }, "check": { "available": false, "reason": "keine bindendere Gr\u00f6\u00dfe deklariert \u2014 der ausgewiesene Restweg ist die einzige verf\u00fcgbare Messung" } }, { "key": "demografie", "label": "Arbeitskr\u00e4fte-Ventil", "question": "Kann Wachstum noch aus zus\u00e4tzlichen Erwerbst\u00e4tigen kommen?", "room": 40.2, "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt", "direction": { "factor": 1.0, "tau": -0.73, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend", "window_years": 2.0, "window_from": "2024-09-01", "tau_long": -0.71, "toward_long": "schlie\u00dfend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 2.0, "from": "2024-09-01", "n": 24, "tau": -0.73, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 3.0, "from": "2023-10-01", "n": 35, "tau": -0.7, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-09-01", "n": 60, "tau": -0.04, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-09-01", "n": 120, "tau": -0.27, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-09-01", "n": 240, "tau": -0.71, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" } ], "turned": false, "note": "" }, "check": { "available": false, "reason": "keine bindendere Gr\u00f6\u00dfe deklariert \u2014 der ausgewiesene Restweg ist die einzige verf\u00fcgbare Messung" } }, { "key": "oekologie", "label": "\u00d6kologisches Ventil", "question": "Wie viele planetare Grenzen sind noch nicht \u00fcberschritten?", "room": 22.2, "status": "eng", "direction": { "factor": 0.2, "tau": null, "toward": null, "ladder": [], "turned": null, "note": "zu kurze Reihe \u2014 Sockel angesetzt" }, "check": { "available": false, "reason": "keine bindendere Gr\u00f6\u00dfe deklariert \u2014 der ausgewiesene Restweg ist die einzige verf\u00fcgbare Messung" } }, { "key": "globalisierung", "label": "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "question": "Lassen sich Kosten weiter \u00fcber die Ausweitung des Weltmarkts dr\u00fccken?", "room": 14.9, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "direction": { "factor": 0.52, "tau": 0.42, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend", "window_years": 10.0, "window_from": "2015-12-31", "tau_long": -0.05, "toward_long": "\u00f6ffnend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 10.0, "from": "2015-12-31", "n": 10, "tau": 0.42, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2004-12-31", "n": 21, "tau": -0.05, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre \u00f6ffnend, \u00fcber 10 Jahre schlie\u00dfend" }, "check": { "available": false, "reason": "keine bindendere Gr\u00f6\u00dfe deklariert \u2014 der ausgewiesene Restweg ist die einzige verf\u00fcgbare Messung" } }, { "key": "legitimation", "label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "question": "Tr\u00e4gt die Bev\u00f6lkerung weitere Zumutungen noch mit?", "room": 10.3, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "direction": { "factor": 1.0, "tau": -0.58, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend", "window_years": 2.0, "window_from": "2024-08-01", "tau_long": -0.08, "toward_long": "schlie\u00dfend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 2.0, "from": "2024-08-01", "n": 25, "tau": -0.58, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 3.0, "from": "2023-09-01", "n": 36, "tau": -0.57, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-08-01", "n": 61, "tau": -0.26, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-08-01", "n": 121, "tau": -0.63, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-08-01", "n": 241, "tau": -0.08, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" } ], "turned": false, "note": "" }, "check": { "available": false, "reason": "keine bindendere Gr\u00f6\u00dfe deklariert \u2014 der ausgewiesene Restweg ist die einzige verf\u00fcgbare Messung" } }, { "key": "fiskal", "label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "question": "Kann der Staat noch gegensteuern, ohne dass die Zinslast ihn erdr\u00fcckt?", "room": 0.0, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "direction": { "factor": 0.2, "tau": -0.61, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend", "window_years": 2.0, "window_from": "2024-04-01", "tau_long": 0.14, "toward_long": "schlie\u00dfend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 2.0, "from": "2024-04-01", "n": 9, "tau": -0.61, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 3.0, "from": "2023-07-01", "n": 12, "tau": 0.03, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-04-01", "n": 21, "tau": 0.67, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-04-01", "n": 41, "tau": 0.49, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-04-01", "n": 81, "tau": 0.14, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre schlie\u00dfend, \u00fcber 2 Jahre \u00f6ffnend" }, "check": { "available": false, "reason": "keine bindendere Gr\u00f6\u00dfe deklariert \u2014 der ausgewiesene Restweg ist die einzige verf\u00fcgbare Messung" } } ], "n_checked": 2, "n_turned": 5, "turned_keys": [ "zins", "notenbank", "haushalte", "globalisierung", "fiskal" ], "overstated_keys": [ "zins" ], "headline": { "text": "Das Zins-Ventil weist 75 % Restweg aus, real sind es 11 %.", "notes": [ "5 Ventil(e) haben gewendet: Zins-Ventil, Notenbankbilanz-Ventil, Privatverschuldungs-Ventil, Globalisierungs-Ventil, Fiskal-Ventil", "1 Ventil(e) sind in der bindenden Gr\u00f6\u00dfe deutlich enger als ausgewiesen" ], "n_checked": 2 }, "method": "Drei Tests je Ventil, keiner davon prognostisch. ERSTENS die Richtung \u00fcber eine ganze Leiter von Kalenderfenstern (2, 3, 5, 10 und 20 Jahre) statt \u00fcber eine gew\u00e4hlte L\u00e4nge \u2014 berichtet wird das k\u00fcrzeste auswertbare Fenster, und widerspricht es dem l\u00e4ngsten, hat das Ventil gewendet. ZWEITENS der effektive Restweg in der Gr\u00f6\u00dfe, die materiell bindet, sofern eine solche existiert und messbar ist; wo nicht, steht das ausdr\u00fccklich da. DRITTENS der Nachweis, ob die letzte Bet\u00e4tigung des Ventils ihre beabsichtigte Wirkung erreicht hat. Keine dieser Zahlen ver\u00e4ndert Restweg, Resilienz oder Spannung \u2014 sie stehen daneben und zeigen, in welche Richtung die Kopfzahlen irren." }, "csd": { "series": [ { "tau_ar1": 0.82, "tau_variance": 0.756, "strength": 0.756, "verdict": "Resilienzverlust deutlich", "level": "kritisch", "window_points": 40, "n_points": 80, "ar1_latest": 0.841, "ar1_first": 0.525, "track": [ { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.5248, "var": 2.627583 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.5034, "var": 2.548425 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.5176, "var": 2.579493 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.5305, "var": 2.578617 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.5007, "var": 2.562637 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.5216, "var": 2.497776 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.5407, "var": 2.573077 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.5496, "var": 2.584334 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.5616, "var": 2.574249 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.6114, "var": 2.505014 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.5978, "var": 2.42762 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.5752, "var": 2.336554 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.5526, "var": 2.365434 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.561, "var": 2.527603 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.5451, "var": 2.930179 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.6336, "var": 3.518525 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.6975, "var": 3.667356 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.707, "var": 3.708608 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.6917, "var": 3.654106 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.6623, "var": 3.469206 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.6603, "var": 3.266953 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.6495, "var": 3.150862 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.6773, "var": 3.04199 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.632, "var": 3.217798 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.6372, "var": 3.751027 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.6902, "var": 4.213633 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.7247, "var": 4.668626 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.7409, "var": 5.240961 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.7902, "var": 5.65213 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.8076, "var": 5.85365 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.8128, "var": 5.955951 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.8278, "var": 5.99956 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.8397, "var": 6.105344 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.8455, "var": 6.2071 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.8475, "var": 6.15964 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.8418, "var": 6.183261 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.8512, "var": 6.257161 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.8416, "var": 6.631088 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.8558, "var": 6.845823 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.868, "var": 7.054593 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.8413, "var": 7.741726 } ], "key": "labor_share", "label": "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "why": "Verteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe des Klassenverh\u00e4ltnisses" }, { "tau_ar1": 0.333, "tau_variance": 0.144, "strength": 0.144, "verdict": "schwaches Signal", "level": "schwach", "window_points": 37, "n_points": 75, "ar1_latest": 0.735, "ar1_first": 0.693, "track": [ { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.693, "var": 112.819924 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.694, "var": 113.200812 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.6802, "var": 112.26602 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.7009, "var": 112.367315 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.696, "var": 112.316763 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.717, "var": 109.450051 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.704, "var": 111.010015 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.7199, "var": 111.885522 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.7183, "var": 112.9473 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.7002, "var": 120.247041 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.7147, "var": 128.13825 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.7296, "var": 135.322387 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.7348, "var": 143.228619 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.7141, "var": 138.509573 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.7309, "var": 130.379472 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.7255, "var": 128.773977 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.7135, "var": 128.561992 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.7206, "var": 127.388133 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.7279, "var": 127.306989 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.7314, "var": 124.137262 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.6827, "var": 133.603902 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.724, "var": 140.433655 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.7176, "var": 141.557513 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.7182, "var": 136.52539 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.7673, "var": 132.001066 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.7702, "var": 132.394489 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.7725, "var": 132.297368 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.7392, "var": 134.138441 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.7112, "var": 125.254748 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.6999, "var": 116.115932 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.6704, "var": 113.808526 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.7607, "var": 105.399503 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.7636, "var": 105.213036 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.7652, "var": 104.184669 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.697, "var": 117.234667 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.739, "var": 121.892987 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.7504, "var": 122.823077 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.7122, "var": 133.027106 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.7346, "var": 148.481996 } ], "key": "consumer_sentiment", "label": "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "why": "Erlebte Legitimit\u00e4t \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der gesellschaftlichen Stimmung" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.029, "tau_variance": 0.776, "strength": -0.029, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 40, "n_points": 80, "ar1_latest": 0.807, "ar1_first": 0.673, "track": [ { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.6731, "var": 1.206681 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.6937, "var": 1.212599 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.7558, "var": 1.141409 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.7324, "var": 1.190779 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.8087, "var": 1.139843 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.8261, "var": 1.191298 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.8335, "var": 1.24177 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.8396, "var": 1.293187 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.8564, "var": 1.304767 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.8584, "var": 1.293367 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.8643, "var": 1.283283 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.8665, "var": 1.282933 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.8579, "var": 1.295845 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.8616, "var": 1.323975 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.8499, "var": 1.383278 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.8521, "var": 1.464133 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.8706, "var": 1.503193 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.8785, "var": 1.51042 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.8576, "var": 1.521873 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.8027, "var": 1.653017 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.8207, "var": 1.80918 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.8503, "var": 1.883859 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.8492, "var": 1.879082 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.841, "var": 1.893418 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.8107, "var": 2.01046 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.8314, "var": 2.074448 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.8073, "var": 2.277583 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.8259, "var": 2.35813 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.8465, "var": 2.408211 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.8542, "var": 2.4249 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.8481, "var": 2.391298 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.8324, "var": 2.335331 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.8182, "var": 2.208732 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.8382, "var": 2.046473 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.8448, "var": 2.009333 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.814, "var": 2.156986 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.8353, "var": 2.216722 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.8422, "var": 2.247722 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.8379, "var": 2.280437 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.8228, "var": 2.253191 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.8074, "var": 2.207126 } ], "key": "profit_share", "label": "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "why": "Gewinnquote \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der Verwertung" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.148, "tau_variance": 0.851, "strength": -0.148, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 40, "n_points": 81, "ar1_latest": 0.898, "ar1_first": 0.814, "track": [ { "date": "1985-12-31", "ar1": 0.8139, "var": 60.425076 }, { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.776, "var": 59.829658 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.7874, "var": 65.957203 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.7974, "var": 73.982429 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.8802, "var": 74.777017 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.8944, "var": 81.249167 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.9034, "var": 86.914706 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.9231, "var": 89.325455 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.9367, "var": 90.533558 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.9424, "var": 90.786147 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.9435, "var": 90.862085 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.9417, "var": 90.945234 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.9355, "var": 91.935523 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.9355, "var": 92.832452 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.9305, "var": 94.489767 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.9136, "var": 97.934609 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.9177, "var": 100.125998 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.9211, "var": 100.9731 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.9266, "var": 99.57123 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.9294, "var": 97.174981 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.9353, "var": 95.770461 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.9305, "var": 96.193093 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.9197, "var": 98.927589 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.8893, "var": 108.487095 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.836, "var": 133.990676 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.8741, "var": 153.371266 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.8947, "var": 168.610561 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.9055, "var": 180.974608 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.9152, "var": 189.670233 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.9201, "var": 195.482484 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.9204, "var": 198.014807 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.9134, "var": 200.177373 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.9156, "var": 198.547012 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.9146, "var": 194.152351 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.9141, "var": 187.82143 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.7913, "var": 214.9529 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.8439, "var": 215.876446 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.8621, "var": 211.88599 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.8699, "var": 203.835658 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.8869, "var": 196.174437 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.8988, "var": 193.908926 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.8983, "var": 193.904692 } ], "key": "total_debt_gdp", "label": "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "why": "Verschuldungsgrad \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe des Kreditsystems" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.505, "tau_variance": -0.277, "strength": -0.505, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 63, "n_points": 127, "ar1_latest": 0.595, "ar1_first": 0.868, "track": [ { "date": "1962-12-31", "ar1": 0.8683, "var": 1042.018798 }, { "date": "1963-12-31", "ar1": 0.8916, "var": 1025.651127 }, { "date": "1964-12-31", "ar1": 0.8966, "var": 1041.973129 }, { "date": "1965-12-31", "ar1": 0.9006, "var": 1064.693979 }, { "date": "1966-12-31", "ar1": 0.9049, "var": 1081.122368 }, { "date": "1967-12-31", "ar1": 0.9086, "var": 1089.674651 }, { "date": "1968-12-31", "ar1": 0.91, "var": 1090.456446 }, { "date": "1969-12-31", "ar1": 0.9056, "var": 1092.071023 }, { "date": "1970-12-31", "ar1": 0.9069, "var": 1086.033589 }, { "date": "1971-12-31", "ar1": 0.9125, "var": 1081.040725 }, { "date": "1972-12-31", "ar1": 0.9123, "var": 1080.374293 }, { "date": "1973-12-31", "ar1": 0.9115, "var": 1077.589566 }, { "date": "1974-12-31", "ar1": 0.9033, "var": 1081.268677 }, { "date": "1975-12-31", "ar1": 0.9076, "var": 1077.900263 }, { "date": "1976-12-31", "ar1": 0.9121, "var": 1076.105673 }, { "date": "1977-12-31", "ar1": 0.9112, "var": 1075.296843 }, { "date": "1978-12-31", "ar1": 0.9115, "var": 1075.025248 }, { "date": "1979-12-31", "ar1": 0.912, "var": 1079.244247 }, { "date": "1980-12-31", "ar1": 0.915, "var": 1083.159185 }, { "date": "1981-12-31", "ar1": 0.9124, "var": 1081.525007 }, { "date": "1982-12-31", "ar1": 0.924, "var": 1075.102583 }, { "date": "1983-12-31", "ar1": 0.9227, "var": 1085.903819 }, { "date": "1984-12-31", "ar1": 0.9261, "var": 1085.24456 }, { "date": "1985-12-31", "ar1": 0.9247, "var": 1086.122185 }, { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.9257, "var": 1088.591261 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.9278, "var": 1089.49955 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.9242, "var": 1091.775016 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.9203, "var": 1081.861236 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.9185, "var": 1072.202432 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.9164, "var": 1066.132843 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.918, "var": 1063.880852 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.9184, "var": 1060.346539 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.9202, "var": 1061.958714 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.9095, "var": 1069.861025 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.9006, "var": 1064.571483 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.8687, "var": 1053.649883 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.8894, "var": 944.349289 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.9191, "var": 877.976502 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.8879, "var": 873.061838 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.889, "var": 804.007881 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.8605, "var": 772.278387 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.8637, "var": 714.184319 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.8291, "var": 669.965466 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.8077, "var": 636.72498 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.8277, "var": 613.73181 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.8275, "var": 629.30837 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.8205, "var": 612.076258 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.7952, "var": 604.108642 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.8125, "var": 589.257862 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.8007, "var": 605.108951 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.8026, "var": 630.910033 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.8132, "var": 653.138542 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.8058, "var": 653.822496 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.801, "var": 656.997173 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.7942, "var": 655.304202 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.7776, "var": 665.657833 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.777, "var": 658.604617 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.7461, "var": 680.513734 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.6276, "var": 944.209171 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.7136, "var": 1143.930093 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.7553, "var": 1138.704799 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.7543, "var": 1126.380025 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.744, "var": 1092.863148 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.5368, "var": 1428.538738 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.5948, "var": 2066.168399 } ], "key": "policy_uncertainty", "label": "Wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit", "why": "Politische Unsicherheit \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der Institutionen" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.2, "tau_variance": -0.66, "strength": -0.66, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 30, "n_points": 60, "ar1_latest": 0.447, "ar1_first": 0.554, "track": [ { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.5536, "var": 13.514138 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.5414, "var": 13.64237 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.5333, "var": 13.215682 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.5893, "var": 12.570846 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.587, "var": 12.60787 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.5805, "var": 12.794332 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.5604, "var": 13.302692 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.5921, "var": 12.309801 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.6683, "var": 11.990419 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.6963, "var": 10.774617 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.7188, "var": 10.712633 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.7129, "var": 10.809165 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.6973, "var": 10.523633 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.5762, "var": 13.367939 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.6462, "var": 13.933253 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.6227, "var": 13.845569 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.579, "var": 11.609767 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.6406, "var": 9.984967 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.6273, "var": 9.982607 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.6132, "var": 9.763422 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.6244, "var": 9.505377 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.6329, "var": 9.512424 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.6083, "var": 9.386757 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.6131, "var": 9.150271 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.5677, "var": 9.751168 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.5637, "var": 9.730205 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.5589, "var": 9.860042 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.556, "var": 9.874652 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.5264, "var": 9.492524 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.497, "var": 8.873358 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.4467, "var": 8.334124 } ], "key": "capacity_utilization", "label": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "why": "Auslastung der Produktionsanlagen \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der Realwirtschaft" } ], "n_signal": 1, "method": "Rollende AR(1)-Autokorrelation und Varianz auf der detrendeten Jahresreihe, Zeittrend per Kendall-Tau. Steigen beide, klingen St\u00f6rungen langsamer ab als fr\u00fcher (Scheffer et al., Nature 2009). Das Verfahren erzeugt in Sozialzeitreihen bekannterma\u00dfen Fehlalarme und sagt weder Zeitpunkt noch Richtung eines \u00dcbergangs voraus." }, "resilience": { "index": 40.5, "index_adjusted": 50.7, "level": "EINGESCHR\u00c4NKT", "components": [ { "key": "zins", "label": "Zins-Ventil", "value": 75.0, "kind": "ventil", "status": "offen" }, { "key": "fiskal", "label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "value": 0.0, "kind": "ventil", "status": "ersch\u00f6pft" }, { "key": "notenbank", "label": "Notenbankbilanz-Ventil", "value": 49.3, "kind": "ventil", "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt" }, { "key": "globalisierung", "label": "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "value": 14.9, "kind": "ventil", "status": "ersch\u00f6pft" }, { "key": "haushalte", "label": "Privatverschuldungs-Ventil", "value": 69.7, "kind": "ventil", "status": "offen" }, { "key": "demografie", "label": "Arbeitskr\u00e4fte-Ventil", "value": 40.2, "kind": "ventil", "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt" }, { "key": "legitimation", "label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "value": 10.3, "kind": "ventil", "status": "ersch\u00f6pft" }, { "key": "oekologie", "label": "\u00d6kologisches Ventil", "value": 22.2, "kind": "ventil", "status": "eng" }, { "key": "csd_rueckstellkraft", "label": "R\u00fcckstellkraft (kritische Verlangsamung)", "value": 83.3, "kind": "csd", "status": "1 von 6 Kernreihen mit Resilienzverlust-Signal" } ], "n_components": 9, "overlap_excluded": [ "fiskal", "legitimation" ], "unmeasured": [ { "label": "Institutionelle Anpassungsf\u00e4higkeit", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Reformf\u00e4higkeit von Verfassungsordnungen l\u00e4sst sich nicht als Zeitreihe messen; V-Dem-Indizes messen Zustand, nicht Anpassungsreserve." }, { "label": "Elitenkoh\u00e4sion", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Genau der Puffer, um den es Turchin geht \u2014 es existiert keine \u00f6ffentliche Langzeitreihe; Polarisierungsma\u00dfe von Abstimmungsdaten decken nur den Kongress ab." }, { "label": "Soziale Koh\u00e4sion und zwischenmenschliches Vertrauen", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Umfragereihen (GSS ab 1972) sind l\u00fcckenhaft und methodisch gebrochen; als Index-Baustein nicht belastbar." }, { "label": "Technologischer Probleml\u00f6sungsvorrat", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Ob k\u00fcnftige Technik Druck abbaut (Energie, Material), ist prinzipiell nicht aus historischen Reihen ablesbar." } ], "method": "Ungewichtetes Mittel der Ventil-Restwege (jedes mit offengelegter Formel und Referenzpunkt) plus R\u00fcckstellkraft = Anteil der CSD-Kernreihen ohne Resilienzverlust-Signal, alles auf 0\u2013100 (100 = volle Absorptionsf\u00e4higkeit). Die bereinigte Variante l\u00e4sst Ventile weg, deren Bauplan mit einem Druck-Indikator identisch ist (Doppelz\u00e4hlungs-Audit). Nicht messbare Puffer \u2014 institutionelle Anpassungsf\u00e4higkeit, Elitenkoh\u00e4sion, soziale Koh\u00e4sion \u2014 sind ausgewiesen, aber nicht eingerechnet: Der Index \u00fcbersch\u00e4tzt die Resilienz daher eher, als dass er sie untersch\u00e4tzt." }, "tension": { "central": 68.1, "band": [ 46.4, 68.8 ], "level": "HOCH", "variants": [ { "key": "arithmetisch", "formula": "(P + (100\u2212R)) / 2", "value": 68.8 }, { "key": "geometrisch", "formula": "\u221a(P \u00b7 (100\u2212R))", "value": 68.1 }, { "key": "multiplikativ", "formula": "P \u00b7 (100\u2212R) / 100", "value": 46.4 } ], "central_adjusted": 62.0, "delta_adjustment": -6.1, "druck": 78.0, "resilience": 40.5, "method": "Systemische Spannung verkn\u00fcpft Druck P und Resilienzdefizit (100\u2212R). Welche Verkn\u00fcpfung die richtige ist, ist theoretisch nicht entscheidbar \u2014 deshalb werden drei deklarierte Varianten gerechnet (arithmetisch, geometrisch, multiplikativ) und als Median plus Spannweite berichtet. Ein enges Band hei\u00dft: der Befund h\u00e4ngt nicht an der Formelwahl. Die bereinigte Variante rechnet die Resilienz ohne Ventile, deren Bauplan mit einem Druck-Indikator identisch ist; die Differenz beziffert den maximalen Effekt der Doppelz\u00e4hlung." }, "costress": { "track": [ [ 1961, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1962, 0.0, 15 ], [ 1963, 6.7, 15 ], [ 1964, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1965, 13.3, 15 ], [ 1966, 12.5, 16 ], [ 1967, 0.0, 16 ], [ 1968, 0.0, 17 ], [ 1969, 5.9, 17 ], [ 1970, 23.5, 17 ], [ 1971, 17.6, 17 ], [ 1972, 16.7, 18 ], [ 1973, 27.8, 18 ], [ 1974, 31.6, 19 ], [ 1975, 40.0, 20 ], [ 1976, 25.0, 20 ], [ 1977, 33.3, 21 ], [ 1978, 36.4, 22 ], [ 1979, 43.5, 23 ], [ 1980, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1981, 24.0, 25 ], [ 1982, 30.8, 26 ], [ 1983, 23.1, 26 ], [ 1984, 28.6, 28 ], [ 1985, 35.7, 28 ], [ 1986, 34.5, 29 ], [ 1987, 41.4, 29 ], [ 1988, 27.6, 29 ], [ 1989, 34.5, 29 ], [ 1990, 36.7, 30 ], [ 1991, 32.3, 31 ], [ 1992, 32.3, 31 ], [ 1993, 31.2, 32 ], [ 1994, 28.1, 32 ], [ 1995, 31.2, 32 ], [ 1996, 34.4, 32 ], [ 1997, 25.0, 32 ], [ 1998, 28.1, 32 ], [ 1999, 34.4, 32 ], [ 2000, 28.1, 32 ], [ 2001, 31.2, 32 ], [ 2002, 40.6, 32 ], [ 2003, 40.0, 35 ], [ 2004, 41.7, 36 ], [ 2005, 40.5, 37 ], [ 2006, 39.5, 38 ], [ 2007, 42.1, 38 ], [ 2008, 50.0, 38 ], [ 2009, 50.0, 38 ], [ 2010, 55.3, 38 ], [ 2011, 55.3, 38 ], [ 2012, 44.7, 38 ], [ 2013, 47.4, 38 ], [ 2014, 37.5, 40 ], [ 2015, 27.5, 40 ], [ 2016, 31.7, 41 ], [ 2017, 39.0, 41 ], [ 2018, 34.1, 41 ], [ 2019, 34.1, 41 ], [ 2020, 42.9, 42 ], [ 2021, 50.0, 42 ], [ 2022, 42.9, 42 ], [ 2023, 37.5, 40 ], [ 2024, 30.8, 39 ], [ 2025, 35.1, 37 ], [ 2026, 38.7, 31 ] ], "threshold": 90.0, "min_series": 10, "latest": 38.7, "latest_year": 2026, "latest_n": 31, "base_rate_pct": 30.3, "n_years_geq": 20, "n_years_total": 66, "method": "Anteil der verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen, deren Stress-Track (expandierendes Perzentil der per Transformationsrolle entsch\u00e4rften Jahresreihe, ohne Look-ahead) im jeweiligen Jahr \u2265 90 steht. Jahre mit weniger als 10 verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen werden nicht gewertet. Die Basisrate z\u00e4hlt, in wie viel Prozent aller gewerteten Jahre die Gleichzeitigkeit mindestens so hoch war wie zuletzt \u2014 ohne diese Zahl w\u00e4re der Index ein Zirkelschluss aus vergangener Zeit. Zu beachten: Der Reihenbestand w\u00e4chst \u00fcber die Jahrzehnte (Coverage-Spalte); die Fixed-Panel-Variante rechnet deshalb zus\u00e4tzlich nur mit den langen Reihen.", "fixed_panel": { "track": [ [ 1961, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1962, 0.0, 15 ], [ 1963, 6.7, 15 ], [ 1964, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1965, 13.3, 15 ], [ 1966, 12.5, 16 ], [ 1967, 0.0, 16 ], [ 1968, 0.0, 17 ], [ 1969, 5.9, 17 ], [ 1970, 23.5, 17 ], [ 1971, 17.6, 17 ], [ 1972, 16.7, 18 ], [ 1973, 27.8, 18 ], [ 1974, 31.6, 19 ], [ 1975, 40.0, 20 ], [ 1976, 25.0, 20 ], [ 1977, 33.3, 21 ], [ 1978, 36.4, 22 ], [ 1979, 43.5, 23 ], [ 1980, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1981, 25.0, 24 ], [ 1982, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1983, 25.0, 24 ], [ 1984, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1985, 37.5, 24 ], [ 1986, 37.5, 24 ], [ 1987, 41.7, 24 ], [ 1988, 25.0, 24 ], [ 1989, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1990, 37.5, 24 ], [ 1991, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1992, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1993, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1994, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1995, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1996, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1997, 20.8, 24 ], [ 1998, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1999, 33.3, 24 ], [ 2000, 25.0, 24 ], [ 2001, 29.2, 24 ], [ 2002, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2003, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2004, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2005, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2006, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2007, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2008, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2009, 54.2, 24 ], [ 2010, 50.0, 24 ], [ 2011, 54.2, 24 ], [ 2012, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2013, 50.0, 24 ], [ 2014, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2015, 29.2, 24 ], [ 2016, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2017, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2018, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2019, 29.2, 24 ], [ 2020, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2021, 50.0, 24 ], [ 2022, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2023, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2024, 30.4, 23 ], [ 2025, 38.1, 21 ], [ 2026, 52.9, 17 ] ], "threshold": 90.0, "min_series": 10, "latest": 52.9, "latest_year": 2026, "latest_n": 17, "base_rate_pct": 4.5, "n_years_geq": 3, "n_years_total": 66, "method": "Anteil der verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen, deren Stress-Track (expandierendes Perzentil der per Transformationsrolle entsch\u00e4rften Jahresreihe, ohne Look-ahead) im jeweiligen Jahr \u2265 90 steht. Jahre mit weniger als 10 verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen werden nicht gewertet. Die Basisrate z\u00e4hlt, in wie viel Prozent aller gewerteten Jahre die Gleichzeitigkeit mindestens so hoch war wie zuletzt \u2014 ohne diese Zahl w\u00e4re der Index ein Zirkelschluss aus vergangener Zeit. Zu beachten: Der Reihenbestand w\u00e4chst \u00fcber die Jahrzehnte (Coverage-Spalte); die Fixed-Panel-Variante rechnet deshalb zus\u00e4tzlich nur mit den langen Reihen.", "start_cutoff": 1980, "n_series": 24, "keys": [ "buffett_indicator", "co2", "consumer_sentiment", "current_account", "debt_gdp", "deficit_gdp", "fertilizer", "financial_profit_share", "housing_affordability", "interest_burden", "labor_share", "life_expectancy", "net_investment", "policy_uncertainty", "prod_wage_gap", "profit_rate", "profit_share", "purchasing_power", "real_policy_rate", "real_wage_prod", "renewable_share", "temp_anomaly", "top1_income_share", "total_debt_gdp" ] } }, "coupling": { "redundancy": { "pairs": [ { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "capacity_utilization", "r": -0.093, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "co2", "r": 0.49, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "consumer_sentiment", "r": 0.257, "n_common": 75 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "current_account", "r": -0.281, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "debt_gdp", "r": 0.632, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "deficit_gdp", "r": -0.084, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "dollar_index", "r": 0.695, "n_common": 21 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "dollar_reserve_share", "r": 0.059, "n_common": 27 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "elite_squeeze", "r": -0.244, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "fed_monetization", "r": 0.708, "n_common": 25 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "fertilizer", "r": 0.317, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "financial_profit_share", "r": 0.228, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "food_price", "r": -0.147, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "foreign_holdings", "r": 0.394, "n_common": 57 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "forest_share", "r": -0.175, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "gold_real", "r": 0.372, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "housing_affordability", "r": 0.481, "n_common": 64 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "interest_burden", "r": 0.008, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "inventory_sales", "r": 0.27, "n_common": 35 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "labor_share", "r": 0.11, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "life_expectancy", "r": -0.582, "n_common": 65 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "living_planet", "r": -0.542, "n_common": 53 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "material_footprint", "r": 0.5, "n_common": 23 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "net_investment", "r": -0.18, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "niip_gdp", "r": -0.547, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "overshoot_day", "r": -0.497, "n_common": 55 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "r": 0.417, "n_common": 81 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "prod_wage_gap", "r": -0.04, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "profit_rate", "r": 0.424, "n_common": 79 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "profit_share", "r": 0.273, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "purchasing_power", "r": 0.386, "n_common": 81 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "real_policy_rate", "r": 0.013, "n_common": 73 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "real_wage_prod", "r": 0.296, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "relative_wage", "r": -0.131, "n_common": 48 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "renewable_share", "r": 0.582, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "temp_anomaly", "r": 0.447, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "top1_income_share", "r": 0.521, "n_common": 79 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "r": 0.47, "n_common": 81 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "tuition_real", "r": -0.169, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "r": -0.503, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "wealth_top1", "r": 0.426, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "co2", "r": -0.616, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "consumer_sentiment", "r": 0.343, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "current_account", "r": 0.424, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "debt_gdp", "r": -0.552, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "deficit_gdp", "r": 0.627, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "dollar_index", "r": -0.034, "n_common": 21 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "dollar_reserve_share", "r": 0.133, "n_common": 27 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "elite_squeeze", "r": -0.588, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "fed_monetization", "r": 0.175, "n_common": 25 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "fertilizer", "r": -0.62, "n_common": 57 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "financial_profit_share", "r": -0.38, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "food_price", "r": 0.083, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "foreign_holdings", "r": -0.501, "n_common": 57 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "forest_share", "r": 0.623, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "gold_real", "r": -0.502, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "housing_affordability", "r": -0.437, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "interest_burden", "r": 0.181, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "inventory_sales", "r": 0.324, "n_common": 35 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "labor_share", "r": 0.259, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "life_expectancy", "r": 0.165, "n_common": 58 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "living_planet", "r": 0.505, "n_common": 53 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "material_footprint", "r": -0.125, "n_common": 23 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "net_investment", "r": 0.791, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "niip_gdp", "r": 0.499, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "overshoot_day", "r": 0.514, "n_common": 55 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "r": -0.577, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "prod_wage_gap", "r": -0.342, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "profit_rate", "r": -0.353, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "profit_share", "r": -0.419, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "purchasing_power", "r": -0.366, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "real_policy_rate", "r": 0.278, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "real_wage_prod", "r": -0.15, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "relative_wage", "r": -0.701, "n_common": 48 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "renewable_share", "r": -0.539, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "temp_anomaly", "r": -0.577, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "top1_income_share", "r": -0.464, "n_common": 58 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "r": -0.617, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "tuition_real", "r": 0.002, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "r": -0.193, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "wealth_top1", "r": -0.451, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "consumer_sentiment", "r": -0.317, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "current_account", "r": -0.755, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "debt_gdp", "r": 0.96, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "deficit_gdp", "r": -0.553, "n_common": 68 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "dollar_index", "r": 0.913, "n_common": 21 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "dollar_reserve_share", "r": 0.113, "n_common": 27 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "elite_squeeze", "r": 0.449, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "fed_monetization", "r": 0.64, "n_common": 25 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "fertilizer", "r": 0.93, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "financial_profit_share", "r": 0.601, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "food_price", "r": 0.042, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "foreign_holdings", "r": 0.841, "n_common": 57 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "forest_share", "r": -0.949, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "gold_real", "r": 0.699, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "housing_affordability", "r": 0.904, "n_common": 64 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "interest_burden", "r": -0.128, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "inventory_sales", "r": -0.338, "n_common": 35 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "labor_share", "r": -0.314, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "life_expectancy", "r": -0.334, "n_common": 65 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "living_planet", "r": -0.962, "n_common": 53 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "material_footprint", "r": 0.974, "n_common": 23 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "net_investment", "r": -0.683, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "niip_gdp", "r": -0.962, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "overshoot_day", "r": -0.959, "n_common": 55 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "r": 0.803, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "prod_wage_gap", "r": 0.544, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "profit_rate", "r": 0.659, "n_common": 68 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "profit_share", "r": 0.777, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "purchasing_power", "r": 0.257, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "real_policy_rate", "r": -0.398, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "real_wage_prod", "r": 0.428, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "relative_wage", "r": 0.288, "n_common": 48 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "renewable_share", "r": 0.932, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "temp_anomaly", "r": 0.966, "n_common": 68 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "top1_income_share", "r": 0.919, "n_common": 67 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "r": 0.973, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "tuition_real", "r": -0.14, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "r": -0.266, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "wealth_top1", "r": 0.901, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "current_account", "r": 0.115, "n_common": 75 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "debt_gdp", "r": -0.228, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "deficit_gdp", "r": 0.471, "n_common": 74 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "dollar_index", "r": -0.078, "n_common": 21 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "dollar_reserve_share", "r": -0.045, "n_common": 27 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "elite_squeeze", "r": -0.213, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "fed_monetization", "r": -0.069, "n_common": 25 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "fertilizer", "r": -0.205, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "financial_profit_share", "r": -0.06, "n_common": 75 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "food_price", "r": -0.23, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "foreign_holdings", "r": -0.04, "n_common": 57 }, { "a": 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"prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.333, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.483, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.15, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.089, "n_common": 78 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.414, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.841, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.781, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.005, "n_common": 74 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.704, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.65, "n_common": 72 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.041, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.39, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.768, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.639, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.435, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.665, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.451, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.063, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.173, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.473, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.173, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.495, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.234, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.734, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.152, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.551, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.454, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.308, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.384, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.386, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "zins", "r": 0.625, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.31, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.721, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.405, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.6, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.026, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.48, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.651, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.477, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.529, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.327, "n_common": 46 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.146, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.444, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.236, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.241, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.04, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.297, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.772, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.851, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.266, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.852, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.531, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.51, "n_common": 78 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.071, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.871, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.699, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.267, "n_common": 74 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.695, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.346, "n_common": 72 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.292, "n_common": 77 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.293, "n_common": 78 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.938, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.704, "n_common": 20 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.018, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.739, "n_common": 23 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.624, "n_common": 71 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.476, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.031, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.913, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.824, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.289, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.882, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.517, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.619, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.142, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.201, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.685, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.516, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.636, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.411, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.323, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.042, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.071, "n_common": 36 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.561, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.297, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.419, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.135, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.809, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.627, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.824, "n_common": 36 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.818, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.279, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.752, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.505, "n_common": 38 } ], "suspects": [ { "druck": "consumer_sentiment", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 1.0, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "interest_burden", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 1.0, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.964, "n_common": 53 }, { "druck": "material_footprint", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.962, "n_common": 23 }, { "druck": "debt_gdp", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.954, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "material_footprint", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.952, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "living_planet", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.949, "n_common": 53 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.938, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "debt_gdp", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.93, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "co2", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.929, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "living_planet", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.923, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.913, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "fertilizer", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.906, "n_common": 54 }, { "druck": "foreign_holdings", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.902, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "forest_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.902, "n_common": 35 }, { "druck": "housing_affordability", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.895, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.882, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "forest_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.879, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "fertilizer", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.877, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "forest_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.877, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.871, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.869, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "co2", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.859, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.852, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.851, "n_common": 21 } ], "flag_at": 0.85, "method": "Pearson-Korrelation zwischen den transformierten Basisreihen des Druck-Sets und den Basisreihen der Resilienz-Komponenten. Paare mit |r| \u2265 0.85 sind Doppelz\u00e4hlungsverdacht: Derselbe Sachverhalt ginge einmal als Druck und einmal als Resilienzverlust in die Systemische Spannung ein. Identische Baupl\u00e4ne werden zus\u00e4tzlich exakt erkannt (Doppelz\u00e4hlungs-Audit)." }, "coupling": { "pairs": [ { "a": "gold_real", "b": "profit_share", "phi": 0.733, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 20, "base_a": 51.1, "base_b": 51.1 }, { "a": "foreign_holdings", "b": "real_wage_prod", "phi": 0.699, "n_common": 43, "n_joint": 1, "base_a": 2.3, "base_b": 4.7 }, { "a": "life_expectancy", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.691, "n_common": 51, "n_joint": 7, "base_a": 15.7, "base_b": 21.6 }, { "a": "profit_rate", "b": "real_wage_prod", "phi": 0.617, "n_common": 48, "n_joint": 6, "base_a": 22.9, "base_b": 14.6 }, { "a": "deficit_gdp", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "phi": 0.616, "n_common": 83, "n_joint": 20, "base_a": 27.7, "base_b": 38.6 }, { "a": "net_investment", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "phi": 0.615, "n_common": 66, "n_joint": 28, "base_a": 56.1, "base_b": 48.5 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.6, "n_common": 43, "n_joint": 11, "base_a": 48.8, "base_b": 25.6 }, { "a": "fertilizer", "b": "overshoot_day", "phi": 0.562, "n_common": 38, "n_joint": 35, "base_a": 92.1, "base_b": 97.4 }, { "a": "financial_profit_share", "b": "tuition_real", "phi": 0.553, "n_common": 36, "n_joint": 20, "base_a": 75.0, "base_b": 58.3 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "net_investment", "phi": 0.516, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 22, "base_a": 51.1, "base_b": 73.3 }, { "a": "labor_share", "b": "prod_wage_gap", "phi": 0.515, "n_common": 66, "n_joint": 25, "base_a": 37.9, "base_b": 69.7 }, { "a": "policy_uncertainty", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "phi": 0.514, "n_common": 67, "n_joint": 32, "base_a": 47.8, "base_b": 77.6 }, { "a": "interest_burden", "b": "profit_rate", "phi": 0.513, "n_common": 65, "n_joint": 16, "base_a": 55.4, "base_b": 24.6 }, { "a": "profit_share", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.5, "n_common": 64, "n_joint": 11, "base_a": 45.3, "base_b": 17.2 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "phi": 0.495, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 21, "base_a": 51.1, "base_b": 68.9 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "life_expectancy", "phi": 0.489, "n_common": 43, "n_joint": 8, "base_a": 48.8, "base_b": 18.6 }, { "a": "prod_wage_gap", "b": "tuition_real", "phi": 0.482, "n_common": 36, "n_joint": 19, "base_a": 72.2, "base_b": 58.3 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.469, "n_common": 65, "n_joint": 10, "base_a": 40.0, "base_b": 16.9 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "gold_real", "phi": 0.465, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 12, "base_a": 31.1, "base_b": 51.1 }, { "a": "temp_anomaly", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "phi": 0.457, "n_common": 66, "n_joint": 50, "base_a": 90.9, "base_b": 77.3 } ], "n_pairs_total": 361, "exceed": 75.0, "method": "Phi-Koeffizient der Bin\u00e4rreihen \u201eStress \u2265 75\u201c auf gemeinsamen Jahren (mindestens 25). Misst, ob zwei Dimensionen ZUSAMMEN ausschlagen \u2014 nicht, ob sie korreliert laufen. Deskriptiver Befund; er wird bewusst nicht zur Validierung des Co-Stress-Index herangezogen, denn beide rechnen auf demselben Objekt (Selbstvalidierung). Basisraten je Reihe ausgewiesen: gemeinsame \u00dcberschreitungen sind seltene Ereignisse, kleine Fallzahlen tragen keine Signifikanz." } }, "dynamics": { "pillars": { "turchin": { "n": 15, "n_rising": 7, "n_falling": 2, "n_flat": 6, "mean_persistence": 5.5, "direction": "steigend", "keys_rising": [ "Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents", "Haushaltssaldo \u00f7 BIP", "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "Verm\u00f6gen oberstes Prozent \u00f7 untere H\u00e4lfte", "Verm\u00f6gensanteil der oberen Mittelschicht (90.\u201399. Perzentil)", "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen" ] }, "akkumulation": { "n": 9, "n_rising": 3, "n_falling": 3, "n_flat": 3, "mean_persistence": 10.4, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "keys_rising": [ "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "Produktivit\u00e4ts-Lohn-Schere" ] }, "fiat": { "n": 8, "n_rising": 3, "n_falling": 1, "n_flat": 4, "mean_persistence": 5.6, "direction": "steigend", "keys_rising": [ "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "Leistungsbilanzsaldo \u00f7 BIP", "Realer Goldpreis" ] }, "planetar": { "n": 8, "n_rising": 3, "n_falling": 1, "n_flat": 4, "mean_persistence": 28.5, "direction": "steigend", "keys_rising": [ "Earth Overshoot Day", "Living Planet Index", "Waldfl\u00e4che der Erde" ] } }, "overall": { "n": 40, "n_rising": 16, "n_falling": 7, "n_flat": 17, "mean_persistence": 11.2, "direction": "steigend", "verdict": "Der Stress steigt in 16 von 40 Reihen \u00fcber die letzten zehn Jahre." }, "per_series": { "relative_wage": { "trend_tau": 0.289, "accel": 18.2, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 47.92 }, "labor_share": { "trend_tau": 0.511, "accel": 55.0, "persistence": 4, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 95.0 }, "real_wage_prod": { "trend_tau": 0.067, "accel": 7.2, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 28.57 }, "housing_affordability": { "trend_tau": -0.449, "accel": -5.9, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 73.44 }, "life_expectancy": { "trend_tau": -0.111, "accel": -10.7, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 27.69 }, "top1_income_share": { "trend_tau": 0.6, "accel": 7.3, "persistence": 4, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 91.07 }, "wealth_top1": { "trend_tau": 0.119, "accel": -1.0, "persistence": 21, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "trend_tau": 0.956, "accel": 20.0, "persistence": 0, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 34.21 }, "tuition_real": { "trend_tau": -0.6, "accel": -17.7, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 10.0 }, "elite_squeeze": { "trend_tau": 0.778, "accel": 42.3, "persistence": 0, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 68.42 }, "debt_gdp": { "trend_tau": -0.092, "accel": -2.0, "persistence": 25, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "interest_burden": { "trend_tau": 0.511, "accel": 36.7, "persistence": 4, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 76.25 }, "deficit_gdp": { "trend_tau": 0.511, "accel": 10.9, "persistence": 7, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 85.57 }, "policy_uncertainty": { "trend_tau": 0.072, "accel": -1.7, "persistence": 11, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "consumer_sentiment": { "trend_tau": 0.822, "accel": 56.3, "persistence": 6, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 98.67 }, "profit_rate": { "trend_tau": -0.552, "accel": -5.9, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 0.0 }, "profit_share": { "trend_tau": 0.494, "accel": 6.5, "persistence": 23, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 100.0 }, "capacity_utilization": { "trend_tau": 0.333, "accel": 0.2, "persistence": 3, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 83.33 }, "net_investment": { "trend_tau": 0.111, "accel": -3.5, "persistence": 4, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 87.5 }, "inventory_sales": { "trend_tau": -0.2, "accel": -6.7, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 31.43 }, "financial_profit_share": { "trend_tau": -0.378, "accel": -12.4, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 70.0 }, "total_debt_gdp": { "trend_tau": -0.584, "accel": -3.7, "persistence": 45, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 93.83 }, "buffett_indicator": { "trend_tau": 0.244, "accel": -6.0, "persistence": 14, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 96.3 }, "prod_wage_gap": { "trend_tau": 0.556, "accel": 60.4, "persistence": 5, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 92.5 }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "trend_tau": -0.067, "accel": -13.6, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 44.44 }, "foreign_holdings": { "trend_tau": 0.644, "accel": 12.9, "persistence": 0, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 33.33 }, "fed_monetization": { "trend_tau": -0.23, "accel": -3.4, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 56.0 }, "purchasing_power": { "trend_tau": 0.244, "accel": 18.9, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 57.52 }, "gold_real": { "trend_tau": 0.69, "accel": 7.3, "persistence": 20, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 100.0 }, "real_policy_rate": { "trend_tau": -0.333, "accel": -23.0, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 61.64 }, "niip_gdp": { "trend_tau": 0.244, "accel": 0.9, "persistence": 18, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 96.0 }, "current_account": { "trend_tau": 0.511, "accel": 13.7, "persistence": 7, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 81.25 }, "co2": { "trend_tau": null, "accel": 0.0, "persistence": 55, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "temp_anomaly": { "trend_tau": 0.072, "accel": -0.7, "persistence": 49, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 99.32 }, "living_planet": { "trend_tau": 1.0, "accel": 0.2, "persistence": 39, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 98.11 }, "forest_share": { "trend_tau": 1.0, "accel": 0.5, "persistence": 22, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 97.22 }, "fertilizer": { "trend_tau": -0.322, "accel": -4.1, "persistence": 29, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 92.06 }, "renewable_share": { "trend_tau": null, "accel": 0.0, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 0.0 }, "food_price": { "trend_tau": -0.045, "accel": -13.0, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 52.78 }, "overshoot_day": { "trend_tau": 0.467, "accel": 4.8, "persistence": 34, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 98.18 } }, "method": "Auf den Stress-Tracks: Trend = Kendall-Tau der letzten 10 Jahrespunkte (steigend/fallend ab |Tau| \u2265 0.3); Beschleunigung = Mittel der letzten 5 Punkte minus Mittel der 5 davor; Persistenz = Jahre ununterbrochen mit Stress \u2265 75 am aktuellen Rand. Aggregation per Mehrheit der Richtungen, nicht per Mittelwert \u2014 damit die Aussage nachz\u00e4hlbar bleibt." }, "escalation": { "note": "Ebene Z misst Richtung auf der Taktung der jeweiligen Reihe und kreuzt sie mit dem Niveau zur Phase. Sie flie\u00dft in keine Kopfzahl ein. Die Ketten folgen den in Ebene 5 und 7 deklarierten Mechanismen \u2014 eine leitf\u00e4hige Kante ist eine Strukturaussage, keine \u00dcbertragungsmessung und keine Prognose.", "contributes_to_headline": false, "phases": { "zuspitzung": { "label": "Zuspitzung", "desc": "Hohes Niveau UND zunehmende Gefahr \u2014 der Zustand versch\u00e4rft sich aus einer ohnehin angespannten Lage heraus.", "rank": 0 }, "hochplateau": { "label": "Hochplateau", "desc": "Hohes Niveau ohne erkennbare Richtung \u2014 angespannt, aber nicht weiter eskalierend.", "rank": 1 }, "anmarsch": { "label": "Anmarsch", "desc": "Niveau noch unauff\u00e4llig, Gefahr aber zunehmend \u2014 die Reihe l\u00e4uft auf ihren oberen Bereich zu.", "rank": 2 }, "abklingen": { "label": "Abklingen", "desc": "Hohes Niveau bei abnehmender Gefahr \u2014 die Spitze liegt vermutlich hinter uns.", "rank": 3 }, "ruhig": { "label": "ruhig", "desc": "Niveau unauff\u00e4llig, keine zunehmende Richtung.", "rank": 4 }, "unbewertbar": { "label": "unbewertbar", "desc": "Niveau oder Richtung fehlen \u2014 zu kurze Reihe oder unbeobachteter Knoten.", "rank": 5 } }, "counts": { "zuspitzung": 17, "hochplateau": 7, "anmarsch": 4, "abklingen": 1, "ruhig": 10, "unbewertbar": 9 }, "n_nodes": 48, "n_rated": 39, "verdict": "17 von 39 bewertbaren Knoten stehen hoch UND versch\u00e4rfen sich weiter; davor liegen 15 noch kalte Glieder an leitf\u00e4higen Kanten.", "nodes": [ { "key": "a:enso", "local_key": "enso", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "ENSO-Zustand (Dreimonatsindex)", "region": "Pazifik", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 99.02, "raw": 2.16, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.85, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 56.6, "run": 9, "change": 69.54, "move_pct": 87.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:japan_jgb", "local_key": "japan_jgb", "layer": "transmission", "label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "region": "Japan", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 97.95, "raw": 2.94, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.64, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 1.97, "run": 1, "change": 2.85, "move_pct": 10.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:hormuz", "local_key": "hormuz", "layer": "transmission", "label": "Stra\u00dfe von Hormus / \u00d6langebot", "region": "Geopolitik", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 97.84, "raw": 125.3, "unit": "USD/Barrel", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.55, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 35.48, "run": 3, "change": 71.9, "move_pct": 87.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "w:distillate", "local_key": "distillate", "layer": "winter", "label": "Mitteldestillate", "region": "", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 97.55, "raw": 71.71, "unit": "$/bbl", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.64, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 6.11, "run": 0, "change": 2.68, "move_pct": 6.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:world_rice", "local_key": "world_rice", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Reis Weltmarkt", "region": "Asien", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 94.54, "raw": 464.0, "unit": "USD/t", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 1.0, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 50.59, "run": 11, "change": 93.96, "move_pct": 98.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:de_soil", "local_key": "de_soil", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Bodenfeuchte Wurzelraum", "region": "Deutschland", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 93.77, "raw": 50.5, "unit": "% nFK", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.48, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 17.15, "run": 0, "change": 26.73, "move_pct": 51.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:us_treasuries", "local_key": "us_treasuries", "layer": "transmission", "label": "US-Treasury-Markt (10 Jahre)", "region": "USA", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 90.08, "raw": 5.27, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.88, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 25.56, "run": 9, "change": 52.07, "move_pct": 78.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:world_wheat", "local_key": "world_wheat", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Weizen Weltmarkt", "region": "global", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 88.34, "raw": 229.0, "unit": "USD/t", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.7, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 32.65, "run": 2, "change": 47.78, "move_pct": 72.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "local_key": "energy_inflation", "layer": "transmission", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "region": "USA / global", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 88.21, "raw": 321.1, "unit": "Index 1982\u201384=100", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.55, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 41.56, "run": 1, "change": 57.79, "move_pct": 79.2, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:long_duration", "local_key": "long_duration", "layer": "transmission", "label": "Langes Ende (30 Jahre)", "region": "USA", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 87.69, "raw": 5.64, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.42, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 8.49, "run": 4, "change": 27.24, "move_pct": 62.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:gas", "local_key": "gas", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Erdgas Europa", "region": "Europa", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 87.34, "raw": 17.9, "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.39, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 41.94, "run": 1, "change": 57.24, "move_pct": 73.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:households", "local_key": "households", "layer": "transmission", "label": "Private Haushalte / Wohnbaufinanzierung", "region": "USA", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 85.04, "raw": 7.34, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.88, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 29.31, "run": 9, "change": 55.69, "move_pct": 90.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:fao_cereals", "local_key": "fao_cereals", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "FAO-Getreideindex", "region": "global", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 80.89, "raw": 122.8, "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.91, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 24.51, "run": 3, "change": 54.33, "move_pct": 82.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:us_fiscal", "local_key": "us_fiscal", "layer": "transmission", "label": "US-Zinslast", "region": "USA", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 76.7, "raw": 21.1, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "trend": { "cadence": "annual", "cadence_label": "Jahre", "window": 10, "tau": 0.511, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 36.7, "run": 4, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false }, "trend_from": "annual", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:nino_now", "local_key": "nino_now", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 aktuell", "region": "Pazifik", "status": "aktiv", "stress": null, "raw": 3.2, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-09-30", "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-08", "to": "2026-09-30", "tau": 0.97, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 1.53, "run": 3, "change": 3.0, "move_pct": 99.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:nino_sst", "local_key": "nino_sst", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Wassertemperatur", "region": "Pazifik", "status": "aktiv", "stress": null, "raw": 29.9, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-09-30", "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": 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"USA", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 85.04, "raw": 7.34, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.88, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 29.31, "run": 9, "change": 55.69, "move_pct": 90.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:hormuz", "local_key": "hormuz", "layer": "transmission", "label": "Stra\u00dfe von Hormus / \u00d6langebot", "region": "Geopolitik", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 97.84, "raw": 125.3, "unit": "USD/Barrel", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.55, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 35.48, "run": 3, "change": 71.9, "move_pct": 87.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:enso", "local_key": "enso", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "ENSO-Zustand (Dreimonatsindex)", "region": "Pazifik", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 99.02, "raw": 2.16, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.85, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 56.6, "run": 9, "change": 69.54, "move_pct": 87.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:fao_cereals", "local_key": "fao_cereals", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "FAO-Getreideindex", "region": "global", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 80.89, "raw": 122.8, "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.91, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 24.51, "run": 3, "change": 54.33, "move_pct": 82.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "local_key": "energy_inflation", "layer": "transmission", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "region": "USA / global", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 88.21, "raw": 321.1, "unit": "Index 1982\u201384=100", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.55, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 41.56, "run": 1, "change": 57.79, "move_pct": 79.2, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:us_treasuries", "local_key": "us_treasuries", "layer": "transmission", "label": "US-Treasury-Markt (10 Jahre)", "region": "USA", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 90.08, "raw": 5.27, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.88, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 25.56, "run": 9, "change": 52.07, "move_pct": 78.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:gas", "local_key": "gas", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Erdgas Europa", "region": "Europa", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 87.34, "raw": 17.9, "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.39, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 41.94, "run": 1, "change": 57.24, "move_pct": 73.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:world_wheat", "local_key": "world_wheat", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Weizen Weltmarkt", "region": "global", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 88.34, "raw": 229.0, "unit": "USD/t", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.7, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 32.65, "run": 2, "change": 47.78, "move_pct": 72.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:long_duration", "local_key": "long_duration", "layer": "transmission", "label": "Langes Ende (30 Jahre)", "region": "USA", "status": "erhoeht", "stress": 87.69, "raw": 5.64, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.42, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 8.49, "run": 4, "change": 27.24, "move_pct": 62.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "a:de_soil", "local_key": "de_soil", "layer": "agrifood", "label": "Bodenfeuchte Wurzelraum", "region": "Deutschland", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 93.77, "raw": 50.5, "unit": "% nFK", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.48, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 17.15, "run": 0, "change": 26.73, "move_pct": 51.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:japan_jgb", "local_key": "japan_jgb", "layer": "transmission", "label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "region": "Japan", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 97.95, "raw": 2.94, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.64, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 1.97, "run": 1, "change": 2.85, "move_pct": 10.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" }, { "key": "w:distillate", "local_key": "distillate", "layer": "winter", "label": "Mitteldestillate", "region": "", "status": "aktiv", "stress": 97.55, "raw": 71.71, "unit": "$/bbl", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.64, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 6.11, "run": 0, "change": 2.68, "move_pct": 6.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "trend_from": "monitor", "phase": "zuspitzung", "phase_label": "Zuspitzung" } ], "cascade": { "chains": [ { "keys": [ "a:world_wheat", "a:fao_cereals", "a:fao_index", "t:energy_inflation", "t:japan_jgb" ], "labels": [ "Weizen Weltmarkt", "FAO-Getreideindex", "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "Energie- und Importinflation", "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan" ], "length": 5, "phases": [ "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung", "hochplateau", "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung" ], "escalating": 4, "grades": [ "A", "A", "C", "B" ], "weakest_grade": "C" }, { "keys": [ "a:world_rice", "a:fao_cereals", "a:fao_index", "t:energy_inflation", "t:japan_jgb" ], "labels": [ "Reis Weltmarkt", "FAO-Getreideindex", "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "Energie- und Importinflation", "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan" ], "length": 5, "phases": [ "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung", "hochplateau", "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung" ], "escalating": 4, "grades": [ "A", "A", "C", "B" ], "weakest_grade": "C" }, { "keys": [ "t:hormuz", "t:energy_inflation", "t:japan_jgb" ], "labels": [ "Stra\u00dfe von Hormus / \u00d6langebot", "Energie- und Importinflation", "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan" ], "length": 3, "phases": [ "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung" ], "escalating": 3, "grades": [ "A", "B" ], "weakest_grade": "B" }, { "keys": [ "t:hormuz", "a:gas", "a:fertilizer" ], "labels": [ "Stra\u00dfe von Hormus / \u00d6langebot", "Erdgas Europa", "D\u00fcngemittelpreise" ], "length": 3, "phases": [ "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung", "hochplateau" ], "escalating": 2, "grades": [ "B", "A" ], "weakest_grade": "B" }, { "keys": [ "t:us_treasuries", "t:us_fiscal", "t:reserve_status" ], "labels": [ "US-Treasury-Markt (10 Jahre)", "US-Zinslast", "Dollar-Reservestatus" ], "length": 3, "phases": [ "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung", "hochplateau" ], "escalating": 2, "grades": [ "A", "C" ], "weakest_grade": "C" }, { "keys": [ "a:nino_sst", "a:nino_now", "a:enso" ], "labels": [ "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Wassertemperatur", "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 aktuell", "ENSO-Zustand (Dreimonatsindex)" ], "length": 3, "phases": [ "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung" ], "escalating": 3, "grades": [ "A", "A" ], "weakest_grade": "A" }, { "keys": [ "w:price", "w:distillate", "w:transport_cost" ], "labels": [ "Gaspreisstruktur", "Mitteldestillate", "Transport- und Betriebskosten" ], "length": 3, "phases": [ "hochplateau", "zuspitzung", "hochplateau" ], "escalating": 1, "grades": [ "C", "A" ], "weakest_grade": "C" }, { "keys": [ "w:chokepoint", "w:distillate", "w:transport_cost" ], "labels": [ "Engstelle", "Mitteldestillate", "Transport- und Betriebskosten" ], "length": 3, "phases": [ "hochplateau", "zuspitzung", "hochplateau" ], "escalating": 1, "grades": [ "B", "A" ], "weakest_grade": "B" }, { "keys": [ "t:us_treasuries", "t:households" ], "labels": [ "US-Treasury-Markt (10 Jahre)", "Private Haushalte / Wohnbaufinanzierung" ], "length": 2, "phases": [ "zuspitzung", "zuspitzung" ], "escalating": 2, "grades": [ "A" ], "weakest_grade": "A" }, { "keys": [ "a:de_rain", "a:de_soil" ], "labels": [ "Niederschlag Deutschland (12 Monate)", "Bodenfeuchte Wurzelraum" ], "length": 2, "phases": [ "hochplateau", "zuspitzung" ], "escalating": 1, "grades": [ "A" ], "weakest_grade": "A" }, { "keys": [ "w:price", "a:fertilizer" ], "labels": [ "Gaspreisstruktur", "D\u00fcngemittelpreise" ], "length": 2, "phases": [ "hochplateau", "hochplateau" ], "escalating": 0, "grades": [ "A" ], "weakest_grade": "A" }, { "keys": [ "w:stock", "w:gap" ], "labels": [ "Speicherbestand", "Winterl\u00fccke" ], "length": 2, "phases": [ "unbewertbar", "unbewertbar" ], "escalating": 0, "grades": [ "A" ], "weakest_grade": "A" } ], "n_chains": 13, "longest_chain": 5, "fronts": [ { "src": "t:japan_jgb", "dst": "t:yen_carry", "src_label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "dst_label": "Yen-Carry-Trade", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "anmarsch", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Steigende Heimzinsen verengen die Zinsdifferenz \u2014 die Gesch\u00e4ftsgrundlage des Carry Trade.", "source": "BIS Bulletin 90 (2024)", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "t:japan_jgb", "dst": "t:jp_institutions", "src_label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "dst_label": "Japanische Institutionelle", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "unbewertbar", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Bond-Mathematik: Renditeanstieg hei\u00dft Kursverlust auf Bestandsanleihen \u2014 Bewertungsdruck auf Banken, Versicherer, Pensionsfonds.", "source": "BOJ Financial System Report", "condition_note": null, "observed": false }, { "src": "t:us_treasuries", "dst": "t:repo_collateral", "src_label": "US-Treasury-Markt (10 Jahre)", "dst_label": "Repo und Sicherheiten", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "ruhig", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Renditeanstieg senkt Sicherheitenwerte, l\u00f6st Nachschusspflichten aus und zwingt Basis-Trades ins Deleveraging.", "source": "BIS/Fed-Analysen zum M\u00e4rz 2020 (Dash for Cash)", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "t:long_duration", "dst": "t:bond_vol", "src_label": "Langes Ende (30 Jahre)", "dst_label": "Anleihevolatilit\u00e4t", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "anmarsch", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Ungeordnete Bewegungen am langen Ende treiben die implizite Volatilit\u00e4t von Treasury-Optionen; H\u00e4ndler verlangen f\u00fcr Durationsrisiko mehr Puffer und stellen weniger Liquidit\u00e4t.", "source": "BIS Quarterly Review, M\u00e4rz 2020; Fed Notes zur Treasury-Marktliquidit\u00e4t", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "a:nino_sst", "dst": "a:tropics_harvest", "src_label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Wassertemperatur", "dst_label": "Ernten der El-Ni\u00f1o-Regionen", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "unbewertbar", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Die atmosph\u00e4rische Antwort h\u00e4ngt am Absolutwert, nicht an der Abweichung: Tiefe Konvektion \u00fcber tropischem Ozean beginnt oberhalb von etwa 28 \u00b0C. Erst wenn das Konvektionszentrum nach Osten wandert, verschiebt sich der Regen \u00fcber Afrika, S\u00fcdostasien und Australien. Dieselbe Abweichung wirkt deshalb in einem warmen Grundzustand st\u00e4rker als in einem k\u00fchlen.", "source": "Graham & Barnett (1987), Science; Johnson & Xie (2010), Nature Geoscience (Konvektionsschwelle steigt mit der Erw\u00e4rmung mit)", "condition_note": null, "observed": false }, { "src": "a:enso", "dst": "a:tropics_harvest", "src_label": "ENSO-Zustand (Dreimonatsindex)", "dst_label": "Ernten der El-Ni\u00f1o-Regionen", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "unbewertbar", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Teleconnections: El Ni\u00f1o verschiebt den Regen im s\u00fcdlichen Afrika, in S\u00fcdostasien, Indien und Ostaustralien; Mais, Reis und Weizen dort verlieren in starken Jahren zweistellig.", "source": "Iizumi et al. (2014), Nature Communications; FAO/WFP El-Ni\u00f1o-Anticipatory-Action-Pl\u00e4ne; 2015/16-Bilanz SADC", "condition_note": null, "observed": false }, { "src": "a:de_soil", "dst": "a:eu_harvest", "src_label": "Bodenfeuchte Wurzelraum", "dst_label": "EU-Ernte (Ertrag je Hektar)", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "unbewertbar", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Wasserstress in Bl\u00fcte und Kornf\u00fcllung senkt den Ertrag; f\u00fcr Europa sind D\u00fcrre-Ertragsverluste attributiert und seit den 1960ern verdreifacht.", "source": "Br\u00e1s et al. (2021), Environmental Research Letters; JRC MARS", "condition_note": null, "observed": false }, { "src": "t:us_fiscal", "dst": "t:duration_premium", "src_label": "US-Zinslast", "dst_label": "Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "anmarsch", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Angebotsdruck: Steigender Finanzierungsbedarf und ein wachsender Anteil langer Emissionen treffen auf eine begrenzte Zahl von K\u00e4ufern, die Laufzeitrisiko tragen wollen \u2014 der Preis daf\u00fcr ist die Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie. Richtung plausibel und literaturgest\u00fctzt, Gr\u00f6\u00dfe je nach Studie strittig.", "source": "CBO Budget Outlook; Fed-Analysen zum Treasury-Angebotseffekt", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "a:rhine", "dst": "a:de_consumer", "src_label": "Rhein bei Kaub", "dst_label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "src_phase": "zuspitzung", "dst_phase": "ruhig", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Niedrigwasser verteuert Fracht und verknappt Zulieferung; der Preiseffekt beim Verbraucher ist klein und indirekt.", "source": "Ademmer et al. (2020), IfW Kiel: Rhein-Niedrigwasser 2018", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "a:de_rain", "dst": "a:de_deep_water", "src_label": "Niederschlag Deutschland (12 Monate)", "dst_label": "Tiefenwasser-Proxy (36 Monate)", "src_phase": "hochplateau", "dst_phase": "anmarsch", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Grundwasserneubildung findet fast nur im Winterhalbjahr statt, wenn der Boden ges\u00e4ttigt ist; ein Sommer-Defizit wird erst durch mehrere nasse Winter aufgeholt.", "source": "BGR Hydrogeologie; Forschungszentrum J\u00fclich, Grundwasser-Studien 2022\u20132026", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "w:price", "dst": "w:injection", "src_label": "Gaspreisstruktur", "dst_label": "Einspeicherung", "src_phase": "hochplateau", "dst_phase": "ruhig", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "", "source": "", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "w:price", "dst": "w:power", "src_label": "Gaspreisstruktur", "dst_label": "Stromsystem", "src_phase": "hochplateau", "dst_phase": "ruhig", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "", "source": "", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "a:fao_index", "dst": "a:de_consumer", "src_label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "dst_label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "src_phase": "hochplateau", "dst_phase": "ruhig", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Weltmarktpreise kommen mit 6\u201312 Monaten Verz\u00f6gerung und ged\u00e4mpft in den Verbraucherpreisen an; Rohstoffanteil am Ladenpreis meist unter einem Viertel.", "source": "EZB Economic Bulletin 2023, Food-Price-Pass-through; Bundesbank Monatsbericht", "condition_note": null, "observed": true }, { "src": "a:fertilizer", "dst": "a:eu_harvest", "src_label": "D\u00fcngemittelpreise", "dst_label": "EU-Ernte (Ertrag je Hektar)", "src_phase": "hochplateau", "dst_phase": "unbewertbar", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Sinkende Erschwinglichkeit senkt den Stickstoffeinsatz der n\u00e4chsten Aussaat; der Ertragseffekt kommt mit einem Jahr Verz\u00f6gerung.", "source": "Weltbank Commodity Markets Outlook; IFA Nutrient Outlook", "condition_note": null, "observed": false }, { "src": "a:fao_index", "dst": "a:hunger", "src_label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "dst_label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "src_phase": "hochplateau", "dst_phase": "unbewertbar", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Importabh\u00e4ngige Niedrigeinkommensl\u00e4nder geben \u00fcber die H\u00e4lfte des Einkommens f\u00fcr Nahrung aus; Preisspitzen werden dort sofort zu Kaufkraftverlust \u2014 und 2008/2011 zu Unruhen.", "source": "FAO SOFI; Bellemare (2015), American Journal of Agricultural Economics", "condition_note": null, "observed": false } ], "n_fronts": 15, "reach": [ { "key": "t:hormuz", "label": "Stra\u00dfe von Hormus / \u00d6langebot", "n_downstream": 20, "n_cold": 9, "n_hot": 11, "max_depth": 6, "truncated": true, "downstream": [ { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 1 }, { "key": "a:gas", "label": 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"label": "Private Haushalte / Wohnbaufinanzierung", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "t:reserve_status", "label": "Dollar-Reservestatus", "phase": "hochplateau", "depth": 4 }, { "key": "t:duration_premium", "label": "Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie", "phase": "anmarsch", "depth": 4 }, { "key": "t:dollar_funding", "label": "Globale Dollar-Finanzierung", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 4 }, { "key": "t:long_duration", "label": "Langes Ende (30 Jahre)", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "t:bond_vol", "label": "Anleihevolatilit\u00e4t", "phase": "anmarsch", "depth": 6 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "t:credit_conditions", "label": "US-Finanzierungsbedingungen", "phase": "ruhig" }, { "key": "t:households", "label": "Private Haushalte / Wohnbaufinanzierung", "phase": "zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:reserve_status", "label": "Dollar-Reservestatus", "phase": "hochplateau" } ] }, { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "n_downstream": 13, "n_cold": 7, 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"zuspitzung", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "t:japan_jgb", "label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 6 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar" }, { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig" } ] }, { "key": "a:enso", "label": "ENSO-Zustand (Dreimonatsindex)", "n_downstream": 9, "n_cold": 4, "n_hot": 5, "max_depth": 6, "truncated": true, "downstream": [ { "key": "a:tropics_harvest", "label": "Ernten der El-Ni\u00f1o-Regionen", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 1 }, { "key": "a:world_rice", "label": "Reis Weltmarkt", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "a:world_maize", "label": "Mais Weltmarkt", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "a:fao_cereals", "label": "FAO-Getreideindex", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "a:fao_index", "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "phase": "hochplateau", "depth": 4 }, { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "t:japan_jgb", "label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 6 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar" }, { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig" } ] }, { "key": "a:nino_now", "label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 aktuell", "n_downstream": 9, "n_cold": 4, "n_hot": 5, "max_depth": 6, "truncated": true, "downstream": [ { "key": "a:enso", "label": "ENSO-Zustand (Dreimonatsindex)", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 1 }, { "key": "a:tropics_harvest", "label": "Ernten der El-Ni\u00f1o-Regionen", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "a:world_rice", "label": "Reis Weltmarkt", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "a:world_maize", "label": "Mais Weltmarkt", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "a:fao_cereals", "label": "FAO-Getreideindex", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 4 }, { "key": "a:fao_index", "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "phase": "hochplateau", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 6 }, { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 6 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar" }, { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig" } ] }, { "key": "a:de_soil", "label": "Bodenfeuchte Wurzelraum", "n_downstream": 9, "n_cold": 4, "n_hot": 5, "max_depth": 6, "truncated": true, "downstream": [ { "key": "a:eu_harvest", "label": "EU-Ernte (Ertrag je Hektar)", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 1 }, { "key": "a:world_wheat", "label": "Weizen Weltmarkt", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "a:world_maize", "label": "Mais Weltmarkt", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "a:fao_cereals", "label": "FAO-Getreideindex", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "a:fao_index", "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "phase": "hochplateau", "depth": 4 }, { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "t:japan_jgb", "label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 6 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig" }, { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar" } ] }, { "key": "a:gas", "label": "Erdgas Europa", "n_downstream": 9, "n_cold": 4, "n_hot": 5, "max_depth": 6, "truncated": true, "downstream": [ { "key": "a:fertilizer", "label": "D\u00fcngemittelpreise", "phase": "hochplateau", "depth": 1 }, { "key": "a:eu_harvest", "label": "EU-Ernte (Ertrag je Hektar)", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "a:world_wheat", "label": "Weizen Weltmarkt", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "a:world_maize", "label": "Mais Weltmarkt", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "a:fao_cereals", "label": "FAO-Getreideindex", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 4 }, { "key": "a:fao_index", "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "phase": "hochplateau", "depth": 5 }, { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 6 }, { "key": "t:energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 6 }, { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 6 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig" }, { "key": "a:hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "phase": "unbewertbar" } ] }, { "key": "t:long_duration", "label": "Langes Ende (30 Jahre)", "n_downstream": 5, "n_cold": 4, "n_hot": 1, "max_depth": 4, "truncated": false, "downstream": [ { "key": "t:bond_vol", "label": "Anleihevolatilit\u00e4t", "phase": "anmarsch", "depth": 1 }, { "key": "t:repo_collateral", "label": "Repo und Sicherheiten", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "t:households", "label": "Private Haushalte / Wohnbaufinanzierung", "phase": "zuspitzung", "depth": 2 }, { "key": "t:dollar_funding", "label": "Globale Dollar-Finanzierung", "phase": "unbewertbar", "depth": 3 }, { "key": "t:credit_conditions", "label": "US-Finanzierungsbedingungen", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 4 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "t:households", "label": "Private Haushalte / Wohnbaufinanzierung", "phase": "zuspitzung" }, { "key": "t:credit_conditions", "label": "US-Finanzierungsbedingungen", "phase": "ruhig" } ] }, { "key": "a:rhine", "label": "Rhein bei Kaub", "n_downstream": 1, "n_cold": 1, "n_hot": 0, "max_depth": 1, "truncated": false, "downstream": [ { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig", "depth": 1 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "a:de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "phase": "ruhig" } ] }, { "key": "w:distillate", "label": "Mitteldestillate", "n_downstream": 1, "n_cold": 0, "n_hot": 1, "max_depth": 1, "truncated": false, "downstream": [ { "key": "w:transport_cost", "label": "Transport- und Betriebskosten", "phase": "hochplateau", "depth": 1 } ], "endpoints": [ { "key": "w:transport_cost", "label": "Transport- und Betriebskosten", "phase": "hochplateau" } ] } ], "blocked_edges": [], "n_edges_live": 61 }, "bridges": [ { "src": "t:hormuz", "dst": "a:gas", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "\u00d6l- und Gaspreis in Europa laufen \u00fcber LNG-Arbitrage, \u00f6lindexierte Altvertr\u00e4ge und gemeinsame Risikopr\u00e4mie zusammen. Ein Chokepoint-Schub am \u00d6l erreicht die Landwirtschaft \u00fcber das Gas, nicht \u00fcber den Diesel allein.", "source": "IEA Gas Market Report; ACER Wholesale Gas Volumes" }, { "src": "a:fao_index", "dst": "t:energy_inflation", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Nahrungsmittel sind ein Warenkorbposten: Der FAO-Index f\u00fchrt der Verbraucherteuerung mit sechs bis zw\u00f6lf Monaten voraus und bindet damit dieselbe Geldpolitik wie die Energie. Die Kante ist schwach, weil der Gewichtsanteil in Industriel\u00e4ndern klein ist \u2014 in Schwellenl\u00e4ndern ist sie stark.", "source": "IWF WP/11/180 (Food and Headline Inflation); EZB Economic Bulletin 4/2022" }, { "src": "w:price", "dst": "a:fertilizer", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Erdgas ist der Rohstoff der Ammoniaksynthese, nicht nur deren Energie: Rund 80 % der europ\u00e4ischen Stickstoffkosten sind Gaskosten. 2022 standen europ\u00e4ische Anlagen deshalb still.", "source": "Fertilizers Europe; Weltbank Commodity Markets Outlook 2022" } ], "layers": [ "transmission", "agrifood", "winter" ], "conditions": { "prestress": true }, "blind_spots": [ { "key": "events", "label": "Akute Ereignisse ohne Zeitreihe", "desc": "Seuchenausbruch, Anschlag, Reaktorunfall, Putsch. Sie haben keine Historie, aus der sich ein Perzentil bilden lie\u00dfe, und erscheinen im Monitor erst, wenn sie eine gemessene Reihe bewegen \u2014 also nachgelagert und oft erst Wochen sp\u00e4ter.", "where": "Sichtbar w\u00fcrde ein gro\u00dfer Ausbruch \u00fcber Fracht- und Rohstoffpreise, Volatilit\u00e4t und, bei Ernteregionen, \u00fcber Ebene 7." }, { "key": "policy", "label": "Entscheidungen, die noch nicht getroffen sind", "desc": "Exportverbote, Sanktionen, Grenzschlie\u00dfungen wirken sofort und sprunghaft. Der Monitor sieht ihre Folge im Preis, nie ihre Vorbereitung.", "where": "Ebene E (Einl\u00f6sbarkeit) misst, ob die Gegenmittel noch wirken, nicht ob sie gezogen werden." }, { "key": "local", "label": "Regionale Not unterhalb der Weltmarktschwelle", "desc": "Eine Hungerkrise im s\u00fcdlichen Afrika bewegt den Weltmaispreis kaum \u2014 die Region ist im Welthandel klein. Globale Reihen sind f\u00fcr lokale Katastrophen ein schlechtes Instrument.", "where": "Ebene 7 kennzeichnet die betroffenen Knoten (tropics_harvest, hunger) als unbeobachtet statt sie zu sch\u00e4tzen." }, { "key": "speed", "label": "Alles unterhalb der Ver\u00f6ffentlichungsfrequenz", "desc": "Die schnellste Reihe hier ist t\u00e4glich, viele sind monatlich, manche j\u00e4hrlich. Ein Bankensturm \u00fcber ein Wochenende liegt unterhalb der Aufl\u00f6sung dieses Instruments.", "where": "Ebene 5 tr\u00e4gt die schnellsten Reihen (Renditen, MOVE, VIX, Repo) \u2014 sie sind der Fr\u00fchwarnteil des Monitors." } ], "method": "Richtung je Reihe auf ihrer eigenen Taktung: Kendall-Tau \u00fcber 26 Wochen- bzw. 12 Monatspunkte (Richtung ab |Tau| \u2265 0.3), bei saisonalen Reihen nach Abzug des Jahresgangs (Median desselben Kalenderfensters). Knoten ohne eigenen Monitor erben die Zehnjahres-Richtung aus Ebene 4; die Herkunft steht an jedem Knoten. Phase = Niveau \u00d7 Richtung, wobei \u201ehoch\u201c das obere Quartil der eigenen Historie meint. Ketten und Fronten laufen \u00fcber die in Ebene 5 und 7 deklarierten Mechanismen plus 3 Br\u00fccken zwischen den Ebenen; bedingte Kanten leiten nur bei erf\u00fcllter Bedingung. Nichts davon flie\u00dft in Druck, Resilienz, Spannung oder Co-Stress ein." }, "transmission": { "note": "Knoten sind gemessen oder als unbeobachtet ausgewiesen; Kanten sind deklarierte Mechanismen aus der Literatur mit Evidenzgrad, keine aus den Daten gesch\u00e4tzten Wirkungen. Kein Wert dieser Ebene flie\u00dft in Druck, Resilienz oder Spannung ein. R\u00fcckkopplungen (etwa Notverk\u00e4ufe, die Renditen weiter treiben) existieren real, sind hier aber nicht als eigene Kanten gezeichnet \u2014 die Karte zeigt die Erstrichtung.", "regime_note": "Der Epochenstand misst Niveau gegen das eigene 10-Jahres-Mittel und die Richtung dieses Mittels \u00fcber f\u00fcnf Jahre. Er flie\u00dft in keine Kopfzahl ein und ist keine Prognose: Eine steigende Drift stellt fest, dass die letzten zehn Jahre h\u00f6her liegen als die zehn davor \u2014 nicht, dass es so weitergeht. Gesetzt wird er nur f\u00fcr Reihen, bei denen das Niveau \u00fcberhaupt eine Aussage tr\u00e4gt; nominale Trendindizes sind ausgenommen.", "regimes": { "aufbruch": { "label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben." }, "ausschlag": { "label": "Ausschlag in gehaltener oder fallender Epoche", "desc": "\u00dcber dem Mittel, aber das Mittel steigt nicht mit. Das ist eine Episode \u2014 genau der Fall, den die Tempo-Messung der Ebene schon abdeckt, und kein Epochenwechsel." }, "abbruch": { "label": "Regimewechsel abw\u00e4rts", "desc": "Unter dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und das Mittel f\u00e4llt. Der Spiegelfall des Aufbruchs." }, "nachlauf": { "label": "R\u00fccksetzer in steigender Epoche", "desc": "Unter dem Mittel, obwohl die Epoche steigt. Entwarnung nur auf Sicht von Monaten; die l\u00e4ngere Bewegung zeigt in die andere Richtung." }, "tiefstand": { "label": "Tiefstand in gehaltener Epoche", "desc": "Unter dem Mittel, das Mittel selbst bewegt sich nicht. Ein R\u00fccksetzer ohne Epochenaussage." }, "epochentypisch": { "label": "epochentypisch", "desc": "Das Niveau sitzt innerhalb einer Viertel-Streuung auf dem eigenen 10-Jahres-Mittel. Es gibt hier keine Epochenaussage \u2014 das ist eine Information, keine L\u00fccke." } }, "contributes_to_headline": false, "grades": { "A": "Mechanisch oder bilanziell zwingend (Bond-Mathematik, Refinanzierung).", "B": "In Krisenepisoden dokumentiert (BIS/IMF/Fed-Analysen zu 2020, 2024).", "C": "Plausibel und literaturgest\u00fctzt, aber episodisch d\u00fcnn belegt.", "D": "Theoretisch begr\u00fcndet, empirisch nicht quantifiziert." }, "monitors": { "oil_brent": { "key": "oil_brent", "label": "\u00d6lpreis Brent", "unit": "USD/Barrel", "decimals": 1, "note": "Preisschub gegen\u00fcber Vorjahr, nicht das nominale Niveau \u2014 dieselbe Logik wie beim Nahrungsmittelpreisindex der S\u00e4ulenrechnung. Der Chokepoint-Kanal (Hormus: rund ein F\u00fcnftel des Welthandels mit \u00d6l und Fl\u00fcssiggas) schl\u00e4gt zuerst hier auf.", "source": "EIA \u00fcber FRED (DCOILBRENTEU), t\u00e4glich ab 1987", "raw": 125.3, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1987-05-01", "mode": "track", "regime": null, "regime_why": "Nominaler Preis ohne Deflation \u2014 das Zehnjahresmittel tr\u00e4gt die Geldentwertung mit. Eine Epochenaussage br\u00e4uchte eine reale Reihe.", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 66.35, "stress": 97.84, "status": "aktiv", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.55, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 35.48, "run": 3, "change": 71.9, "move_pct": 87.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1998-04-01", 15.0 ], [ "1998-06-01", 5.74 ], [ "1998-08-01", 3.23 ], [ "1998-10-01", 2.38 ], [ "1998-12-01", 0.78 ], [ "1999-02-01", 12.31 ], [ "1999-04-01", 69.7 ], [ "1999-06-01", 91.79 ], [ "1999-08-01", 97.79 ], [ "1999-10-01", 97.83 ], [ "1999-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2000-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2000-04-01", 89.58 ], [ "2000-06-01", 95.21 ], [ "2000-08-01", 87.84 ], [ "2000-10-01", 84.67 ], [ "2000-12-01", 50.0 ], [ "2001-02-01", 42.86 ], [ "2001-04-01", 66.03 ], [ "2001-06-01", 36.08 ], [ "2001-08-01", 28.12 ], [ "2001-10-01", 7.41 ], [ "2001-12-01", 11.59 ], [ "2002-02-01", 15.06 ], [ "2002-04-01", 52.98 ], [ "2002-06-01", 31.18 ], [ "2002-08-01", 56.4 ], [ "2002-10-01", 86.21 ], [ "2002-12-01", 89.77 ], [ "2003-02-01", 92.7 ], [ "2003-04-01", 42.78 ], [ "2003-06-01", 69.23 ], [ "2003-08-01", 64.67 ], [ "2003-10-01", 60.22 ], [ "2003-12-01", 58.51 ], [ "2004-02-01", 37.37 ], [ "2004-04-01", 82.81 ], [ "2004-06-01", 79.38 ], [ "2004-08-01", 86.73 ], [ "2004-10-01", 93.43 ], [ "2004-12-01", 81.0 ], [ "2005-02-01", 87.13 ], [ "2005-04-01", 90.2 ], [ "2005-06-01", 89.81 ], [ "2005-08-01", 86.54 ], [ "2005-10-01", 68.57 ], [ "2005-12-01", 83.02 ], [ "2006-02-01", 76.17 ], [ "2006-04-01", 80.56 ], [ "2006-06-01", 70.64 ], [ "2006-08-01", 60.45 ], [ "2006-10-01", 39.19 ], [ "2006-12-01", 54.91 ], [ "2007-02-01", 33.19 ], [ "2007-04-01", 31.14 ], [ "2007-06-01", 48.26 ], [ "2007-08-01", 34.05 ], [ "2007-10-01", 82.91 ], [ "2007-12-01", 86.02 ], [ "2008-02-01", 93.7 ], [ "2008-04-01", 92.08 ], [ "2008-06-01", 96.69 ], [ "2008-08-01", 90.16 ], [ "2008-10-01", 22.76 ], [ "2008-12-01", 0.4 ], [ "2009-02-01", 0.8 ], [ "2009-04-01", 1.59 ], [ "2009-06-01", 2.76 ], [ "2009-08-01", 7.03 ], [ "2009-10-01", 45.35 ], [ "2009-12-01", 96.92 ], [ "2010-02-01", 93.13 ], [ "2010-04-01", 92.05 ], [ "2010-06-01", 53.76 ], [ "2010-08-01", 51.12 ], [ "2010-10-01", 57.04 ], [ "2010-12-01", 66.91 ], [ "2011-02-01", 78.1 ], [ "2011-04-01", 81.88 ], [ "2011-06-01", 86.69 ], [ "2011-08-01", 78.57 ], [ "2011-10-01", 72.34 ], [ "2011-12-01", 62.68 ], [ "2012-02-01", 58.39 ], [ "2012-04-01", 32.29 ], [ "2012-06-01", 20.0 ], [ "2012-08-01", 43.49 ], [ "2012-10-01", 42.18 ], [ "2012-12-01", 41.55 ], [ "2013-02-01", 32.89 ], [ "2013-04-01", 22.0 ], [ "2013-06-01", 52.32 ], [ "2013-08-01", 34.87 ], [ "2013-10-01", 33.66 ], [ "2013-12-01", 41.88 ], [ "2014-02-01", 28.06 ], [ "2014-04-01", 50.0 ], [ "2014-06-01", 54.14 ], [ "2014-08-01", 25.63 ], [ "2014-10-01", 15.41 ], [ "2014-12-01", 2.81 ], [ "2015-02-01", 3.11 ], [ "2015-04-01", 3.7 ], [ "2015-06-01", 3.68 ], [ "2015-08-01", 1.52 ], [ "2015-10-01", 5.15 ], [ "2015-12-01", 7.83 ], [ "2016-02-01", 5.39 ], [ "2016-04-01", 13.1 ], [ "2016-06-01", 19.53 ], [ "2016-08-01", 40.88 ], [ "2016-10-01", 49.12 ], [ "2016-12-01", 80.23 ], [ "2017-02-01", 94.51 ], [ "2017-04-01", 71.26 ], [ "2017-06-01", 34.86 ], [ "2017-08-01", 60.8 ], [ "2017-10-01", 65.54 ], [ "2017-12-01", 69.38 ], [ "2018-02-01", 68.16 ], [ "2018-04-01", 80.0 ], [ "2018-06-01", 91.71 ], [ "2018-08-01", 79.95 ], [ "2018-10-01", 80.6 ], [ "2018-12-01", 26.9 ], [ "2019-02-01", 36.76 ], [ "2019-04-01", 40.32 ], [ "2019-06-01", 24.33 ], [ "2019-08-01", 19.15 ], [ "2019-10-01", 14.55 ], [ "2019-12-01", 66.05 ], [ "2020-02-01", 26.18 ], [ "2020-04-01", 0.26 ], [ "2020-06-01", 8.29 ], [ "2020-08-01", 17.53 ], [ "2020-10-01", 11.28 ], [ "2020-12-01", 17.35 ], [ "2021-02-01", 60.15 ], [ "2021-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2021-06-01", 96.48 ], [ "2021-08-01", 89.75 ], [ "2021-10-01", 98.26 ], [ "2021-12-01", 84.65 ], [ "2022-02-01", 88.18 ], [ "2022-04-01", 90.44 ], [ "2022-06-01", 91.71 ], [ "2022-08-01", 78.88 ], [ "2022-10-01", 57.25 ], [ "2022-12-01", 55.29 ], [ "2023-02-01", 23.68 ], [ "2023-04-01", 20.24 ], [ "2023-06-01", 7.35 ], [ "2023-08-01", 25.47 ], [ "2023-10-01", 36.62 ], [ "2023-12-01", 35.05 ], [ "2024-02-01", 45.81 ], [ "2024-04-01", 53.47 ], [ "2024-06-01", 57.83 ], [ "2024-08-01", 31.42 ], [ "2024-10-01", 22.6 ], [ "2024-12-01", 33.41 ], [ "2025-02-01", 29.41 ], [ "2025-04-01", 17.12 ], [ "2025-06-01", 27.13 ], [ "2025-08-01", 23.88 ], [ "2025-10-01", 25.11 ], [ "2025-12-01", 23.89 ], [ "2026-02-01", 34.36 ], [ "2026-04-01", 94.3 ], [ "2026-06-01", 68.56 ], [ "2026-08-01", 76.74 ], [ "2026-10-01", 97.84 ] ] }, "cpi_energy": { "key": "cpi_energy", "label": "US-Energie-Verbraucherpreise", "unit": "Index 1982\u201384=100", "decimals": 1, "note": "\u00dcbersetzung des Rohstoffschocks in die Inflation, die Notenbanken bindet: Energie-Teuerung engt den Spielraum f\u00fcr Zinssenkungen ein und erh\u00f6ht den Straffungsdruck auf Importeure wie Japan.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (CPIENGSL), monatlich ab 1957", "raw": 321.1, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1957-01-01", "mode": "track", "regime": null, "regime_why": "Nominaler Verbraucherpreisindex: Er liegt durch die Geldentwertung trivial \u00fcber jedem vergangenen Mittel. Ein Epochenstand w\u00e4re hier eine Tautologie, keine Aussage.", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 15.57, "stress": 88.21, "status": "erhoeht", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.55, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 41.56, "run": 1, "change": 57.79, "move_pct": 79.2, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1967-12-01", 60.0 ], [ "1968-05-01", 38.4 ], [ "1968-10-01", 58.46 ], [ "1969-03-01", 88.15 ], [ "1969-08-01", 85.0 ], [ "1970-01-01", 90.34 ], [ "1970-06-01", 38.0 ], [ "1970-11-01", 98.71 ], [ "1971-04-01", 76.25 ], [ "1971-09-01", 99.39 ], [ "1972-02-01", 70.59 ], [ "1972-07-01", 86.29 ], [ "1972-12-01", 84.44 ], [ "1973-05-01", 100.0 ], [ "1973-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "1974-03-01", 100.0 ], [ "1974-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1975-01-01", 94.15 ], [ "1975-06-01", 90.48 ], [ "1975-11-01", 92.56 ], [ "1976-04-01", 85.0 ], [ "1976-09-01", 82.67 ], [ "1977-02-01", 87.83 ], [ "1977-07-01", 88.51 ], [ "1977-12-01", 85.0 ], [ "1978-05-01", 76.73 ], [ "1978-10-01", 81.6 ], [ "1979-03-01", 93.73 ], [ "1979-08-01", 98.46 ], [ "1980-01-01", 100.0 ], [ "1980-06-01", 96.67 ], [ "1980-11-01", 89.09 ], [ "1981-04-01", 86.43 ], [ "1981-09-01", 85.26 ], [ "1982-02-01", 52.41 ], [ "1982-07-01", 36.95 ], [ "1982-12-01", 21.67 ], [ "1983-05-01", 63.61 ], [ "1983-10-01", 4.19 ], [ "1984-03-01", 63.81 ], [ "1984-08-01", 2.5 ], [ "1985-01-01", 16.31 ], [ "1985-06-01", 29.39 ], [ "1985-11-01", 24.48 ], [ "1986-04-01", 0.29 ], [ "1986-09-01", 0.58 ], [ "1987-02-01", 3.14 ], [ "1987-07-01", 66.76 ], [ "1987-12-01", 78.89 ], [ "1988-05-01", 35.62 ], [ "1988-10-01", 21.08 ], [ "1989-03-01", 65.6 ], [ "1989-08-01", 69.74 ], [ "1990-01-01", 82.6 ], [ "1990-06-01", 21.79 ], [ "1990-11-01", 92.15 ], [ "1991-04-01", 62.5 ], [ "1991-09-01", 3.46 ], [ "1992-02-01", 4.88 ], [ "1992-07-01", 58.31 ], [ "1992-12-01", 45.0 ], [ "1993-05-01", 48.24 ], [ "1993-10-01", 29.07 ], [ "1994-03-01", 11.26 ], [ "1994-08-01", 61.82 ], [ "1995-01-01", 57.53 ], [ "1995-06-01", 64.44 ], [ "1995-11-01", 4.84 ], [ "1996-04-01", 72.39 ], [ "1996-09-01", 73.12 ], [ "1997-02-01", 78.3 ], [ "1997-07-01", 8.84 ], [ "1997-12-01", 3.96 ], [ "1998-05-01", 4.54 ], [ "1998-10-01", 2.65 ], [ "1999-03-01", 7.47 ], [ "1999-08-01", 79.4 ], [ "2000-01-01", 92.08 ], [ "2000-06-01", 94.31 ], [ "2000-11-01", 91.65 ], [ "2001-04-01", 82.31 ], [ "2001-09-01", 34.67 ], [ "2002-02-01", 1.7 ], [ "2002-07-01", 6.92 ], [ "2002-12-01", 87.04 ], [ "2003-05-01", 73.03 ], [ "2003-10-01", 79.45 ], [ "2004-03-01", 29.01 ], [ "2004-08-01", 83.21 ], [ "2005-01-01", 80.53 ], [ "2005-06-01", 75.79 ], [ "2005-11-01", 91.13 ], [ "2006-04-01", 92.76 ], [ "2006-09-01", 7.35 ], [ "2007-02-01", 12.54 ], [ "2007-07-01", 28.07 ], [ "2007-12-01", 90.83 ], [ "2008-05-01", 90.25 ], [ "2008-10-01", 82.3 ], [ "2009-03-01", 0.16 ], [ "2009-08-01", 0.97 ], [ "2010-01-01", 91.68 ], [ "2010-06-01", 57.62 ], [ "2010-11-01", 60.63 ], [ "2011-04-01", 91.25 ], [ "2011-09-01", 90.7 ], [ "2012-02-01", 69.85 ], [ "2012-07-01", 8.55 ], [ "2012-12-01", 26.97 ], [ "2013-05-01", 16.99 ], [ "2013-10-01", 7.76 ], [ "2014-03-01", 35.26 ], [ "2014-08-01", 25.74 ], [ "2015-01-01", 1.46 ], [ "2015-06-01", 3.62 ], [ "2015-11-01", 4.32 ], [ "2016-04-01", 7.86 ], [ "2016-09-01", 13.76 ], [ "2017-02-01", 88.17 ], [ "2017-07-01", 59.72 ], [ "2017-12-01", 71.11 ], [ "2018-05-01", 82.21 ], [ "2018-10-01", 75.48 ], [ "2019-03-01", 22.31 ], [ "2019-08-01", 11.49 ], [ "2020-01-01", 72.48 ], [ "2020-06-01", 5.47 ], [ "2020-11-01", 7.42 ], [ "2021-04-01", 95.92 ], [ "2021-09-01", 95.95 ], [ "2022-02-01", 96.1 ], [ "2022-07-01", 97.68 ], [ "2022-12-01", 69.1 ], [ "2023-05-01", 5.86 ], [ "2023-10-01", 12.78 ], [ "2024-03-01", 44.53 ], [ "2024-08-01", 13.12 ], [ "2025-01-01", 32.67 ], [ "2025-06-01", 21.48 ], [ "2025-12-01", 63.31 ], [ "2026-05-01", 93.41 ], [ "2026-08-01", 88.21 ] ] }, "jgb10y": { "key": "jgb10y", "label": "JGB-Rendite 10 Jahre", "unit": "%", "decimals": 2, "note": "Anstiegstempo, nicht Niveau: F\u00fcr Institute auf Bergen niedrig verzinster Best\u00e4nde ist die Geschwindigkeit der Zinswende der Stress \u2014 Kursverluste entstehen aus der \u00c4nderung.", "source": "OECD \u00fcber FRED (IRLTLT01JPM156N), monatlich ab 1989", "raw": 2.94, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1989-01-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 2.94, "mean": 0.5020416666666666, "gap": 2.4379583333333334, "gap_sd": 3.27, "drift": 0.23047499999999993, "drift_per_decade": 0.46094999999999986, "drift_sd": 0.13, "position": "ueber", "position_label": "\u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "aufbruch", "regime_label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben.", "percentile": 80.1, "extreme_since": "1996-08-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1990er", "mean": 3.95165, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": 1.4384333333333332, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 0.45863333333333334, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 0.7530625, "n": 80 } ], "n_months": 452, "start": "1989-01-01", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "decimals": 2, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "CHANGE", "tcode_label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 1.34, "stress": 97.95, "status": "aktiv", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.64, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 1.97, "run": 1, "change": 2.85, "move_pct": 10.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1999-12-01", 79.17 ], [ "2000-02-01", 61.48 ], [ "2000-04-01", 78.23 ], [ "2000-06-01", 73.81 ], [ "2000-08-01", 64.06 ], [ "2000-10-01", 76.15 ], [ "2000-12-01", 62.12 ], [ "2001-02-01", 53.73 ], [ "2001-04-01", 52.94 ], [ "2001-06-01", 49.28 ], [ "2001-08-01", 53.57 ], [ "2001-10-01", 52.11 ], [ "2001-12-01", 61.11 ], [ "2002-02-01", 76.03 ], [ "2002-04-01", 75.0 ], [ "2002-06-01", 80.0 ], [ "2002-08-01", 65.79 ], [ "2002-10-01", 58.44 ], [ "2002-12-01", 53.21 ], [ "2003-02-01", 36.71 ], [ "2003-04-01", 33.12 ], [ "2003-06-01", 29.63 ], [ "2003-08-01", 81.1 ], [ "2003-10-01", 84.94 ], [ "2003-12-01", 85.12 ], [ "2004-02-01", 87.06 ], [ "2004-04-01", 91.28 ], [ "2004-06-01", 94.25 ], [ "2004-08-01", 77.27 ], [ "2004-10-01", 70.22 ], [ "2004-12-01", 70.0 ], [ "2005-02-01", 78.02 ], [ "2005-04-01", 54.89 ], [ "2005-06-01", 34.41 ], [ "2005-08-01", 56.38 ], [ "2005-10-01", 68.95 ], [ "2005-12-01", 72.4 ], [ "2006-02-01", 77.84 ], [ "2006-04-01", 88.78 ], [ "2006-06-01", 89.39 ], [ "2006-08-01", 79.5 ], [ "2006-10-01", 76.24 ], [ "2006-12-01", 73.04 ], [ "2007-02-01", 65.05 ], [ "2007-04-01", 47.6 ], [ "2007-06-01", 62.86 ], [ "2007-08-01", 56.6 ], [ "2007-10-01", 55.61 ], [ "2007-12-01", 53.7 ], [ "2008-02-01", 50.92 ], [ "2008-04-01", 59.09 ], [ "2008-06-01", 45.5 ], [ "2008-08-01", 52.23 ], [ "2008-10-01", 53.1 ], [ "2008-12-01", 42.98 ], [ "2009-02-01", 52.17 ], [ "2009-04-01", 50.43 ], [ "2009-06-01", 48.29 ], [ "2009-08-01", 56.78 ], [ "2009-10-01", 60.5 ], [ "2009-12-01", 70.0 ], [ "2010-02-01", 66.53 ], [ "2010-04-01", 56.56 ], [ "2010-06-01", 43.09 ], [ "2010-08-01", 42.34 ], [ "2010-10-01", 31.2 ], [ "2010-12-01", 53.17 ], [ "2011-02-01", 61.42 ], [ "2011-04-01", 61.33 ], [ "2011-06-01", 67.44 ], [ "2011-08-01", 65.77 ], [ "2011-10-01", 77.48 ], [ "2011-12-01", 48.86 ], [ "2012-02-01", 41.73 ], [ "2012-04-01", 39.55 ], [ "2012-06-01", 40.0 ], [ "2012-08-01", 47.43 ], [ "2012-10-01", 41.97 ], [ "2012-12-01", 50.36 ], [ "2013-02-01", 39.93 ], [ "2013-04-01", 35.71 ], [ "2013-06-01", 70.92 ], [ "2013-08-01", 60.21 ], [ "2013-10-01", 50.7 ], [ "2013-12-01", 59.72 ], [ "2014-02-01", 62.41 ], [ "2014-04-01", 70.55 ], [ "2014-06-01", 40.14 ], [ "2014-08-01", 46.62 ], [ "2014-10-01", 55.37 ], [ "2014-12-01", 32.0 ], [ "2015-02-01", 43.71 ], [ "2015-04-01", 41.78 ], [ "2015-06-01", 64.05 ], [ "2015-08-01", 59.09 ], [ "2015-10-01", 50.97 ], [ "2015-12-01", 65.06 ], [ "2016-02-01", 28.34 ], [ "2016-04-01", 28.16 ], [ "2016-06-01", 19.18 ], [ "2016-08-01", 28.12 ], [ "2016-10-01", 32.61 ], [ "2016-12-01", 45.68 ], [ "2017-02-01", 80.06 ], [ "2017-04-01", 78.96 ], [ "2017-06-01", 87.58 ], [ "2017-08-01", 77.11 ], [ "2017-10-01", 79.34 ], [ "2017-12-01", 69.94 ], [ "2018-02-01", 67.75 ], [ "2018-04-01", 73.24 ], [ "2018-06-01", 64.04 ], [ "2018-08-01", 78.49 ], [ "2018-10-01", 75.43 ], [ "2018-12-01", 62.07 ], [ "2019-02-01", 62.0 ], [ "2019-04-01", 57.67 ], [ "2019-06-01", 45.48 ], [ "2019-08-01", 27.25 ], [ "2019-10-01", 37.15 ], [ "2019-12-01", 66.11 ], [ "2020-02-01", 51.66 ], [ "2020-04-01", 70.6 ], [ "2020-06-01", 85.79 ], [ "2020-08-01", 89.13 ], [ "2020-10-01", 85.14 ], [ "2020-12-01", 73.39 ], [ "2021-02-01", 88.77 ], [ "2021-04-01", 81.38 ], [ "2021-06-01", 69.31 ], [ "2021-08-01", 62.37 ], [ "2021-10-01", 73.3 ], [ "2021-12-01", 73.18 ], [ "2022-02-01", 69.69 ], [ "2022-04-01", 81.44 ], [ "2022-06-01", 84.1 ], [ "2022-08-01", 85.97 ], [ "2022-10-01", 81.73 ], [ "2022-12-01", 89.9 ], [ "2023-02-01", 89.45 ], [ "2023-04-01", 82.75 ], [ "2023-06-01", 82.59 ], [ "2023-08-01", 92.08 ], [ "2023-10-01", 94.33 ], [ "2023-12-01", 85.05 ], [ "2024-02-01", 84.63 ], [ "2024-04-01", 92.23 ], [ "2024-06-01", 93.48 ], [ "2024-08-01", 85.1 ], [ "2024-10-01", 58.13 ], [ "2024-12-01", 91.43 ], [ "2025-02-01", 93.84 ], [ "2025-04-01", 90.33 ], [ "2025-06-01", 87.56 ], [ "2025-08-01", 94.39 ], [ "2025-10-01", 94.19 ], [ "2025-12-01", 96.76 ], [ "2026-02-01", 93.55 ], [ "2026-04-01", 97.48 ], [ "2026-06-01", 97.49 ], [ "2026-08-01", 97.95 ] ] }, "usdjpy": { "key": "usdjpy", "label": "USD/JPY-Bewegungstempo", "unit": "Yen je USD", "decimals": 1, "note": "Betrag der Jahresver\u00e4nderung, bewusst richtungslos: Abwertung (Importinflation, Interventionsdruck) und abrupte Aufwertung (Carry-Unwind wie im August 2024) sind BEIDE der Stressfall. Monatsmittel \u2014 sehr kurze Episoden erscheinen abgeschw\u00e4cht; das schnelle Instrument bleibt der zyklische Crash Radar.", "source": "Fed H.10 \u00fcber FRED (DEXJPUS), t\u00e4glich ab 1971", "raw": 157.7, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1971-01-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 157.72, "mean": 127.18580248608181, "gap": 30.534197513918187, "gap_sd": 1.54, "drift": 21.675688125369433, "drift_per_decade": 43.351376250738866, "drift_sd": 0.31, "position": "ueber", "position_label": "\u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "aufbruch", "regime_label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben.", "percentile": 70.6, "extreme_since": "2024-06-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1970er", "mean": 278.42181725979, "n": 108 }, { "label": "1980er", "mean": 198.8840545973973, "n": 120 }, { "label": "1990er", "mean": 118.80362526123444, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": 111.99135545921787, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 101.20623272209399, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 134.86225994643732, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 670, "start": "1971-01-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 1, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 4.12, "stress": 26.75, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.33, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 24.96, "run": 0, "change": 19.79, "move_pct": 38.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1981-12-01", 30.0 ], [ "1982-04-01", 60.48 ], [ "1982-08-01", 53.91 ], [ "1982-12-01", 51.52 ], [ "1983-04-01", 17.65 ], [ "1983-08-01", 37.14 ], [ "1983-12-01", 19.44 ], [ "1984-04-01", 36.49 ], [ "1984-08-01", 5.92 ], [ "1984-12-01", 39.1 ], [ "1985-04-01", 60.62 ], [ "1985-08-01", 14.63 ], [ "1985-12-01", 92.86 ], [ "1986-04-01", 99.42 ], [ "1986-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1986-12-01", 89.44 ], [ "1987-04-01", 86.41 ], [ "1987-08-01", 29.79 ], [ "1987-12-01", 90.62 ], [ "1988-04-01", 62.76 ], [ "1988-08-01", 50.0 ], [ "1988-12-01", 23.04 ], [ "1989-04-01", 33.65 ], [ "1989-08-01", 34.91 ], [ "1989-12-01", 71.3 ], [ "1990-04-01", 82.27 ], [ "1990-08-01", 24.11 ], [ "1990-12-01", 39.47 ], [ "1991-04-01", 71.12 ], [ "1991-08-01", 40.68 ], [ "1991-12-01", 26.25 ], [ "1992-04-01", 15.98 ], [ "1992-08-01", 44.76 ], [ "1992-12-01", 18.25 ], [ "1993-04-01", 82.42 ], [ "1993-08-01", 88.08 ], [ "1993-12-01", 60.98 ], [ "1994-04-01", 44.4 ], [ "1994-08-01", 22.06 ], [ "1994-12-01", 49.64 ], [ "1995-04-01", 91.79 ], [ "1995-08-01", 28.87 ], [ "1995-12-01", 8.68 ], [ "1996-04-01", 95.21 ], [ "1996-08-01", 65.88 ], [ "1996-12-01", 58.67 ], [ "1997-04-01", 76.97 ], [ "1997-08-01", 46.1 ], [ "1997-12-01", 66.03 ], [ "1998-04-01", 26.58 ], [ "1998-08-01", 90.62 ], [ "1998-12-01", 53.4 ], [ "1999-04-01", 50.61 ], [ "1999-08-01", 95.18 ], [ "1999-12-01", 66.67 ], [ "2000-04-01", 63.24 ], [ "2000-08-01", 24.42 ], [ "2000-12-01", 45.4 ], [ "2001-04-01", 78.12 ], [ "2001-08-01", 58.99 ], [ "2001-12-01", 65.56 ], [ "2002-04-01", 27.47 ], [ "2002-08-01", 9.24 ], [ "2002-12-01", 24.73 ], [ "2003-04-01", 43.62 ], [ "2003-08-01", 1.58 ], [ "2003-12-01", 64.32 ], [ "2004-04-01", 54.9 ], [ "2004-08-01", 36.73 ], [ "2004-12-01", 18.94 ], [ "2005-04-01", 2.75 ], [ "2005-08-01", 2.23 ], [ "2005-12-01", 71.08 ], [ "2006-04-01", 45.87 ], [ "2006-08-01", 27.4 ], [ "2006-12-01", 6.43 ], [ "2007-04-01", 8.96 ], [ "2007-08-01", 4.91 ], [ "2007-12-01", 24.54 ], [ "2008-04-01", 78.67 ], [ "2008-08-01", 37.73 ], [ "2008-12-01", 93.24 ], [ "2009-04-01", 21.43 ], [ "2009-08-01", 76.99 ], [ "2009-12-01", 8.55 ], [ "2010-04-01", 34.57 ], [ "2010-08-01", 57.11 ], [ "2010-12-01", 42.74 ], [ "2011-04-01", 64.62 ], [ "2011-08-01", 56.3 ], [ "2011-12-01", 37.92 ], [ "2012-04-01", 13.64 ], [ "2012-08-01", 12.91 ], [ "2012-12-01", 41.46 ], [ "2013-04-01", 89.72 ], [ "2013-08-01", 94.0 ], [ "2013-12-01", 92.86 ], [ "2014-04-01", 27.36 ], [ "2014-08-01", 29.88 ], [ "2014-12-01", 77.33 ], [ "2015-04-01", 81.54 ], [ "2015-08-01", 87.21 ], [ "2015-12-01", 10.61 ], [ "2016-04-01", 47.37 ], [ "2016-08-01", 90.3 ], [ "2016-12-01", 27.22 ], [ "2017-04-01", 3.31 ], [ "2017-08-01", 45.99 ], [ "2017-12-01", 15.76 ], [ "2018-04-01", 13.31 ], [ "2018-08-01", 7.32 ], [ "2018-12-01", 4.61 ], [ "2019-04-01", 21.65 ], [ "2019-08-01", 26.75 ], [ "2019-12-01", 18.06 ], [ "2020-04-01", 22.07 ], [ "2020-08-01", 1.03 ], [ "2020-12-01", 33.16 ], [ "2021-04-01", 9.29 ], [ "2021-08-01", 23.15 ], [ "2021-12-01", 54.5 ], [ "2022-04-01", 80.3 ], [ "2022-08-01", 93.59 ], [ "2022-12-01", 86.11 ], [ "2023-04-01", 36.04 ], [ "2023-08-01", 41.61 ], [ "2023-12-01", 41.19 ], [ "2024-04-01", 77.71 ], [ "2024-08-01", 7.59 ], [ "2024-12-01", 41.51 ], [ "2025-04-01", 41.56 ], [ "2025-08-01", 6.37 ], [ "2025-12-01", 10.19 ], [ "2026-04-01", 57.98 ], [ "2026-08-01", 45.43 ], [ "2026-10-01", 26.75 ] ] }, "ust10y": { "key": "ust10y", "label": "US-Treasury-Rendite 10 Jahre", "unit": "%", "decimals": 2, "note": "Anstiegstempo als Sicherheiten- und Refinanzierungsstress: Renditen rauf hei\u00dft Kurse runter \u2014 auf dem wichtigsten Sicherheitenbestand des Weltfinanzsystems.", "source": "Fed H.15 \u00fcber FRED (DGS10), t\u00e4glich ab 1962", "raw": 5.27, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1962-01-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 5.266666666666667, "mean": 2.9301555057494415, "gap": 2.336511160917225, "gap_sd": 1.89, "drift": 0.8826653765920072, "drift_per_decade": 1.7653307531840143, "drift_sd": 0.3, "position": "ueber", "position_label": "\u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "aufbruch", "regime_label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben.", "percentile": 49.2, "extreme_since": "2002-03-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1960er", "mean": 4.841772515498612, "n": 96 }, { "label": "1970er", "mean": 7.498765885655166, "n": 120 }, { "label": "1980er", "mean": 10.595064943350847, "n": 120 }, { "label": "1990er", "mean": 6.664410028488547, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": 4.457747820784232, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 2.405806345546563, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 3.1507439309696528, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 778, "start": "1962-01-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 2, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "CHANGE", "tcode_label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 1.2, "stress": 90.08, "status": "aktiv", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.88, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 25.56, "run": 9, "change": 52.07, "move_pct": 78.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1972-12-01", 65.0 ], [ "1973-05-01", 80.8 ], [ "1973-10-01", 54.62 ], [ "1974-03-01", 65.19 ], [ "1974-08-01", 74.29 ], [ "1975-01-01", 61.38 ], [ "1975-06-01", 48.67 ], [ "1975-11-01", 52.9 ], [ "1976-04-01", 8.12 ], [ "1976-09-01", 7.27 ], [ "1977-02-01", 13.53 ], [ "1977-07-01", 12.57 ], [ "1977-12-01", 85.0 ], [ "1978-05-01", 87.57 ], [ "1978-10-01", 92.63 ], [ "1979-03-01", 90.26 ], [ "1979-08-01", 69.0 ], [ "1980-01-01", 99.02 ], [ "1980-06-01", 78.57 ], [ "1980-11-01", 97.67 ], [ "1981-04-01", 98.18 ], [ "1981-09-01", 98.67 ], [ "1982-02-01", 86.09 ], [ "1982-07-01", 12.77 ], [ "1982-12-01", 0.83 ], [ "1983-05-01", 2.45 ], [ "1983-10-01", 63.6 ], [ "1984-03-01", 93.73 ], [ "1984-08-01", 72.69 ], [ "1985-01-01", 18.49 ], [ "1985-06-01", 2.22 ], [ "1985-11-01", 6.91 ], [ "1986-04-01", 1.07 ], [ "1986-09-01", 5.96 ], [ "1987-02-01", 12.76 ], [ "1987-07-01", 84.41 ], [ "1987-12-01", 93.0 ], [ "1988-05-01", 54.75 ], [ "1988-10-01", 17.1 ], [ "1989-03-01", 78.41 ], [ "1989-08-01", 14.06 ], [ "1990-01-01", 16.31 ], [ "1990-06-01", 43.33 ], [ "1990-11-01", 58.21 ], [ "1991-04-01", 17.35 ], [ "1991-09-01", 12.75 ], [ "1992-02-01", 22.86 ], [ "1992-07-01", 10.7 ], [ "1992-12-01", 29.44 ], [ "1993-05-01", 11.78 ], [ "1993-10-01", 13.24 ], [ "1994-03-01", 61.6 ], [ "1994-08-01", 91.05 ], [ "1995-01-01", 94.29 ], [ "1995-06-01", 18.72 ], [ "1995-11-01", 7.85 ], [ "1996-04-01", 27.0 ], [ "1996-09-01", 67.41 ], [ "1997-02-01", 66.1 ], [ "1997-07-01", 24.34 ], [ "1997-12-01", 28.1 ], [ "1998-05-01", 16.47 ], [ "1998-10-01", 10.23 ], [ "1999-03-01", 32.64 ], [ "1999-08-01", 67.27 ], [ "2000-01-01", 94.16 ], [ "2000-06-01", 49.11 ], [ "2000-11-01", 34.29 ], [ "2001-04-01", 21.52 ], [ "2001-09-01", 16.13 ], [ "2002-02-01", 38.94 ], [ "2002-07-01", 28.0 ], [ "2002-12-01", 16.88 ], [ "2003-05-01", 8.04 ], [ "2003-10-01", 58.16 ], [ "2004-03-01", 44.85 ], [ "2004-08-01", 40.0 ], [ "2005-01-01", 47.33 ], [ "2005-06-01", 24.71 ], [ "2005-11-01", 58.83 ], [ "2006-04-01", 73.08 ], [ "2006-09-01", 66.67 ], [ "2007-02-01", 50.19 ], [ "2007-07-01", 41.12 ], [ "2007-12-01", 30.0 ], [ "2008-05-01", 20.73 ], [ "2008-10-01", 25.45 ], [ "2009-03-01", 26.13 ], [ "2009-08-01", 37.32 ], [ "2010-01-01", 89.03 ], [ "2010-06-01", 30.35 ], [ "2010-11-01", 27.3 ], [ "2011-04-01", 34.31 ], [ "2011-09-01", 26.32 ], [ "2012-02-01", 6.78 ], [ "2012-07-01", 8.57 ], [ "2012-12-01", 40.5 ], [ "2013-05-01", 54.38 ], [ "2013-10-01", 80.98 ], [ "2014-03-01", 78.05 ], [ "2014-08-01", 37.26 ], [ "2015-01-01", 18.72 ], [ "2015-06-01", 41.11 ], [ "2015-11-01", 46.61 ], [ "2016-04-01", 44.69 ], [ "2016-09-01", 30.23 ], [ "2017-02-01", 74.92 ], [ "2017-07-01", 80.15 ], [ "2017-12-01", 46.21 ], [ "2018-05-01", 76.54 ], [ "2018-10-01", 79.85 ], [ "2019-03-01", 38.52 ], [ "2019-08-01", 10.15 ], [ "2020-01-01", 18.25 ], [ "2020-06-01", 9.86 ], [ "2020-11-01", 19.42 ], [ "2021-04-01", 86.14 ], [ "2021-09-01", 77.02 ], [ "2022-02-01", 76.06 ], [ "2022-07-01", 93.99 ], [ "2022-12-01", 97.36 ], [ "2023-05-01", 74.62 ], [ "2023-10-01", 79.86 ], [ "2024-03-01", 68.3 ], [ "2024-08-01", 37.03 ], [ "2025-01-01", 69.26 ], [ "2025-06-01", 50.13 ], [ "2025-11-01", 38.01 ], [ "2026-04-01", 48.68 ], [ "2026-09-01", 81.7 ], [ "2026-10-01", 90.08 ] ] }, "ust30y": { "key": "ust30y", "label": "US-Treasury-Rendite 30 Jahre", "unit": "%", "decimals": 2, "note": "Dieselbe Tempo-Logik wie bei der 10-j\u00e4hrigen, aber am l\u00e4ngsten Ende \u2014 und dort schl\u00e4gt sie am h\u00e4rtesten durch: Die Duration einer 30-j\u00e4hrigen Anleihe ist rund doppelt so hoch wie die einer 10-j\u00e4hrigen, derselbe Renditeschritt kostet also etwa den doppelten Kurs. Hier sitzen Lebensversicherer und Pensionsfonds, die Laufzeit zur Deckung ihrer Verpflichtungen halten m\u00fcssen und nicht ausweichen k\u00f6nnen.", "source": "Fed H.15 \u00fcber FRED (DGS30), t\u00e4glich ab 1977", "raw": 5.64, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1977-02-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 5.635000000000001, "mean": 3.3308875600149914, "gap": 2.3041124399850093, "gap_sd": 2.03, "drift": 0.5776134448027186, "drift_per_decade": 1.1552268896054372, "drift_sd": 0.19, "position": "ueber", "position_label": "\u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "aufbruch", "regime_label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben.", "percentile": 52.4, "extreme_since": "2002-06-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1980er", "mean": 10.5643701634063, "n": 120 }, { "label": "1990er", "mean": 7.001475447291924, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": 4.973732117536472, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 3.1900015446224255, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 3.5446430965222757, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 597, "start": "1977-02-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 2, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "CHANGE", "tcode_label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 1.0, "stress": 87.69, "status": "erhoeht", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.42, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 8.49, "run": 4, "change": 27.24, "move_pct": 62.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1988-01-01", 76.67 ], [ "1988-04-01", 48.78 ], [ "1988-07-01", 44.44 ], [ "1988-10-01", 28.68 ], [ "1989-01-01", 37.88 ], [ "1989-04-01", 37.04 ], [ "1989-07-01", 26.09 ], [ "1989-10-01", 28.37 ], [ "1990-01-01", 31.25 ], [ "1990-04-01", 38.78 ], [ "1990-07-01", 48.0 ], [ "1990-10-01", 64.05 ], [ "1991-01-01", 39.74 ], [ "1991-04-01", 30.19 ], [ "1991-07-01", 40.12 ], [ "1991-10-01", 25.45 ], [ "1992-01-01", 28.57 ], [ "1992-04-01", 40.35 ], [ "1992-07-01", 25.86 ], [ "1992-10-01", 37.85 ], [ "1993-01-01", 43.33 ], [ "1993-04-01", 21.86 ], [ "1993-07-01", 23.66 ], [ "1993-10-01", 16.4 ], [ "1994-01-01", 25.0 ], [ "1994-04-01", 57.44 ], [ "1994-07-01", 76.26 ], [ "1994-10-01", 91.54 ], [ "1995-01-01", 85.29 ], [ "1995-04-01", 49.76 ], [ "1995-07-01", 26.67 ], [ "1995-10-01", 15.02 ], [ "1996-01-01", 14.81 ], [ "1996-04-01", 36.53 ], [ "1996-07-01", 54.5 ], [ "1996-10-01", 58.67 ], [ "1997-01-01", 70.18 ], [ "1997-04-01", 53.25 ], [ "1997-07-01", 35.9 ], [ "1997-10-01", 36.71 ], [ "1998-01-01", 23.33 ], [ "1998-04-01", 18.93 ], [ "1998-07-01", 28.46 ], [ "1998-10-01", 17.27 ], [ "1999-01-01", 33.73 ], [ "1999-04-01", 43.92 ], [ "1999-07-01", 57.75 ], [ "1999-10-01", 84.67 ], [ "2000-01-01", 87.5 ], [ "2000-04-01", 55.43 ], [ "2000-07-01", 47.78 ], [ "2000-10-01", 39.19 ], [ "2001-01-01", 19.57 ], [ "2001-04-01", 48.39 ], [ "2001-07-01", 48.58 ], [ "2001-10-01", 37.19 ], [ "2002-01-01", 52.08 ], [ "2002-04-01", 56.7 ], [ "2002-07-01", 52.04 ], [ "2002-10-01", 49.49 ], [ "2003-01-01", 44.0 ], [ "2003-04-01", 29.7 ], [ "2003-07-01", 38.89 ], [ "2003-10-01", 58.25 ], [ "2004-01-01", 54.17 ], [ "2004-04-01", 59.37 ], [ "2004-07-01", 59.75 ], [ "2004-10-01", 41.43 ], [ "2005-01-01", 40.43 ], [ "2005-04-01", 29.36 ], [ "2005-07-01", 22.12 ], [ "2005-10-01", 44.44 ], [ "2006-01-01", 50.3 ], [ "2006-04-01", 66.96 ], [ "2006-07-01", 76.9 ], [ "2006-10-01", 61.45 ], [ "2007-01-01", 62.07 ], [ "2007-04-01", 48.15 ], [ "2007-07-01", 52.82 ], [ "2007-10-01", 51.26 ], [ "2008-01-01", 32.22 ], [ "2008-04-01", 35.81 ], [ "2008-07-01", 30.05 ], [ "2008-10-01", 28.46 ], [ "2009-01-01", 12.37 ], [ "2009-04-01", 26.4 ], [ "2009-07-01", 51.06 ], [ "2009-10-01", 59.58 ], [ "2010-01-01", 91.15 ], [ "2010-04-01", 83.72 ], [ "2010-07-01", 36.41 ], [ "2010-10-01", 41.98 ], [ "2011-01-01", 53.54 ], [ "2011-04-01", 48.62 ], [ "2011-07-01", 65.42 ], [ "2011-10-01", 22.96 ], [ "2012-01-01", 9.31 ], [ "2012-04-01", 11.44 ], [ "2012-07-01", 8.21 ], [ "2012-10-01", 48.68 ], [ "2013-01-01", 61.67 ], [ "2013-04-01", 46.57 ], [ "2013-07-01", 86.85 ], [ "2013-10-01", 80.42 ], [ "2014-01-01", 76.85 ], [ "2014-04-01", 75.4 ], [ "2014-07-01", 44.06 ], [ "2014-10-01", 26.08 ], [ "2015-01-01", 11.71 ], [ "2015-04-01", 19.46 ], [ "2015-07-01", 46.0 ], [ "2015-10-01", 51.21 ], [ "2016-01-01", 70.39 ], [ "2016-04-01", 60.35 ], [ "2016-07-01", 21.65 ], [ "2016-10-01", 37.63 ], [ "2017-01-01", 65.6 ], [ "2017-04-01", 69.21 ], [ "2017-07-01", 78.27 ], [ "2017-10-01", 70.23 ], [ "2018-01-01", 50.42 ], [ "2018-04-01", 63.77 ], [ "2018-07-01", 63.37 ], [ "2018-10-01", 74.44 ], [ "2019-01-01", 63.82 ], [ "2019-04-01", 49.49 ], [ "2019-07-01", 33.33 ], [ "2019-10-01", 12.57 ], [ "2020-01-01", 21.23 ], [ "2020-04-01", 6.9 ], [ "2020-07-01", 11.18 ], [ "2020-10-01", 27.49 ], [ "2021-01-01", 37.4 ], [ "2021-04-01", 89.4 ], [ "2021-07-01", 78.93 ], [ "2021-10-01", 75.62 ], [ "2022-01-01", 66.86 ], [ "2022-04-01", 76.84 ], [ "2022-07-01", 90.64 ], [ "2022-10-01", 96.65 ], [ "2023-01-01", 93.52 ], [ "2023-04-01", 83.61 ], [ "2023-07-01", 82.42 ], [ "2023-10-01", 85.06 ], [ "2024-01-01", 76.27 ], [ "2024-04-01", 86.31 ], [ "2024-07-01", 72.94 ], [ "2024-10-01", 27.09 ], [ "2025-01-01", 76.42 ], [ "2025-04-01", 56.08 ], [ "2025-07-01", 71.23 ], [ "2025-10-01", 63.0 ], [ "2026-01-01", 52.26 ], [ "2026-04-01", 61.66 ], [ "2026-07-01", 61.0 ], [ "2026-10-01", 87.69 ] ] }, "term_premium": { "key": "term_premium", "label": "Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie 10 Jahre (ACM)", "unit": "%-Punkte", "decimals": 2, "note": "Die diagnostisch wichtigste Reihe am langen Ende \u2014 und die einzige, die zwischen zwei v\u00f6llig verschiedenen Ursachen desselben Renditeanstiegs unterscheidet: Eine Rendite ist erwarteter Zinspfad PLUS Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie. Steigt sie, weil der Markt h\u00f6here Leitzinsen erwartet, ist das Geldpolitik. Steigt die Pr\u00e4mie, verlangen Anleger eine h\u00f6here Entsch\u00e4digung daf\u00fcr, \u00fcberhaupt Laufzeitrisiko zu tragen \u2014 das ist der K\u00e4uferstreik-Fall, der Anleiheabsatz und Haushalt bedroht. Hier ist deshalb das Niveau die Aussage, nicht das Tempo. Modellgr\u00f6\u00dfe, kein Marktpreis: ein gesch\u00e4tzter Wert mit Modellunsicherheit.", "source": "NY Fed (Adrian/Crump/Moench) \u00fcber FRED (THREEFYTP10), t\u00e4glich ab 1990", "raw": 1.07, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1990-01-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 1.07485, "mean": 0.1593522238919653, "gap": 0.9154977761080347, "gap_sd": 2.49, "drift": 0.12439046280198737, "drift_per_decade": 0.24878092560397475, "drift_sd": 0.17, "position": "ueber", "position_label": "\u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "aufbruch", "regime_label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben.", "percentile": 66.1, "extreme_since": "2010-04-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1990er", "mean": 1.7242527064810138, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": 0.9713954015165679, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 0.22087687814397655, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 0.19098697821347288, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 442, "start": "1990-01-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 2, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 66.06, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.91, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 14.4, "run": 4, "change": 29.4, "move_pct": 92.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1999-12-01", 34.17 ], [ "2000-02-01", 37.7 ], [ "2000-04-01", 18.55 ], [ "2000-06-01", 20.63 ], [ "2000-08-01", 7.81 ], [ "2000-10-01", 4.62 ], [ "2000-12-01", 0.76 ], [ "2001-02-01", 5.97 ], [ "2001-04-01", 16.91 ], [ "2001-06-01", 27.54 ], [ "2001-08-01", 22.14 ], [ "2001-10-01", 23.24 ], [ "2001-12-01", 55.56 ], [ "2002-02-01", 47.26 ], [ "2002-04-01", 58.11 ], [ "2002-06-01", 44.0 ], [ "2002-08-01", 15.13 ], [ "2002-10-01", 7.79 ], [ "2002-12-01", 13.46 ], [ "2003-02-01", 8.86 ], [ "2003-04-01", 10.62 ], [ "2003-06-01", 0.62 ], [ "2003-08-01", 32.93 ], [ "2003-10-01", 27.11 ], [ "2003-12-01", 27.98 ], [ "2004-02-01", 18.24 ], [ "2004-04-01", 31.98 ], [ "2004-06-01", 41.95 ], [ "2004-08-01", 18.75 ], [ "2004-10-01", 6.74 ], [ "2004-12-01", 5.56 ], [ "2005-02-01", 3.85 ], [ "2005-04-01", 4.35 ], [ "2005-06-01", 0.54 ], [ "2005-08-01", 2.13 ], [ "2005-10-01", 3.68 ], [ "2005-12-01", 3.12 ], [ "2006-02-01", 2.58 ], [ "2006-04-01", 9.69 ], [ "2006-06-01", 10.1 ], [ "2006-08-01", 4.0 ], [ "2006-10-01", 0.99 ], [ "2006-12-01", 0.49 ], [ "2007-02-01", 1.46 ], [ "2007-04-01", 1.92 ], [ "2007-06-01", 17.62 ], [ "2007-08-01", 9.43 ], [ "2007-10-01", 9.35 ], [ "2007-12-01", 6.02 ], [ "2008-02-01", 7.34 ], [ "2008-04-01", 15.45 ], [ "2008-06-01", 27.03 ], [ "2008-08-01", 17.86 ], [ "2008-10-01", 31.86 ], [ "2008-12-01", 0.44 ], [ "2009-02-01", 11.3 ], [ "2009-04-01", 7.76 ], [ "2009-06-01", 41.03 ], [ "2009-08-01", 34.32 ], [ "2009-10-01", 26.89 ], [ "2009-12-01", 31.67 ], [ "2010-02-01", 34.3 ], [ "2010-04-01", 39.75 ], [ "2010-06-01", 14.63 ], [ "2010-08-01", 0.4 ], [ "2010-10-01", 0.4 ], [ "2010-12-01", 15.08 ], [ "2011-02-01", 27.17 ], [ "2011-04-01", 23.83 ], [ "2011-06-01", 4.26 ], [ "2011-08-01", 0.38 ], [ "2011-10-01", 0.76 ], [ "2011-12-01", 0.38 ], [ "2012-02-01", 0.38 ], [ "2012-04-01", 1.49 ], [ "2012-06-01", 0.37 ], [ "2012-08-01", 1.1 ], [ "2012-10-01", 1.82 ], [ "2012-12-01", 2.17 ], [ "2013-02-01", 3.96 ], [ "2013-04-01", 2.86 ], [ "2013-06-01", 8.16 ], [ "2013-08-01", 10.21 ], [ "2013-10-01", 9.09 ], [ "2013-12-01", 12.15 ], [ "2014-02-01", 10.69 ], [ "2014-04-01", 11.64 ], [ "2014-06-01", 10.88 ], [ "2014-08-01", 9.12 ], [ "2014-10-01", 8.39 ], [ "2014-12-01", 8.0 ], [ "2015-02-01", 7.62 ], [ "2015-04-01", 7.24 ], [ "2015-06-01", 10.78 ], [ "2015-08-01", 9.09 ], [ "2015-10-01", 8.06 ], [ "2015-12-01", 9.94 ], [ "2016-02-01", 3.82 ], [ "2016-04-01", 5.06 ], [ "2016-06-01", 2.83 ], [ "2016-08-01", 2.5 ], [ "2016-10-01", 4.66 ], [ "2016-12-01", 15.43 ], [ "2017-02-01", 14.11 ], [ "2017-04-01", 10.67 ], [ "2017-06-01", 8.79 ], [ "2017-08-01", 9.04 ], [ "2017-10-01", 10.78 ], [ "2017-12-01", 11.31 ], [ "2018-02-01", 18.05 ], [ "2018-04-01", 16.76 ], [ "2018-06-01", 17.25 ], [ "2018-08-01", 15.41 ], [ "2018-10-01", 20.23 ], [ "2018-12-01", 11.21 ], [ "2019-02-01", 7.14 ], [ "2019-04-01", 4.55 ], [ "2019-06-01", 0.28 ], [ "2019-08-01", 0.28 ], [ "2019-10-01", 0.84 ], [ "2019-12-01", 2.22 ], [ "2020-02-01", 0.55 ], [ "2020-04-01", 0.27 ], [ "2020-06-01", 0.55 ], [ "2020-08-01", 0.54 ], [ "2020-10-01", 1.89 ], [ "2020-12-01", 2.42 ], [ "2021-02-01", 4.28 ], [ "2021-04-01", 9.84 ], [ "2021-06-01", 8.2 ], [ "2021-08-01", 5.0 ], [ "2021-10-01", 11.26 ], [ "2021-12-01", 11.2 ], [ "2022-02-01", 19.17 ], [ "2022-04-01", 33.25 ], [ "2022-06-01", 35.38 ], [ "2022-08-01", 20.41 ], [ "2022-10-01", 35.03 ], [ "2022-12-01", 20.96 ], [ "2023-02-01", 20.85 ], [ "2023-04-01", 11.75 ], [ "2023-06-01", 16.17 ], [ "2023-08-01", 25.25 ], [ "2023-10-01", 39.16 ], [ "2023-12-01", 23.04 ], [ "2024-02-01", 26.59 ], [ "2024-04-01", 35.44 ], [ "2024-06-01", 29.47 ], [ "2024-08-01", 18.75 ], [ "2024-10-01", 32.54 ], [ "2024-12-01", 40.95 ], [ "2025-02-01", 42.18 ], [ "2025-04-01", 37.74 ], [ "2025-06-01", 39.91 ], [ "2025-08-01", 36.68 ], [ "2025-10-01", 36.05 ], [ "2025-12-01", 41.2 ], [ "2026-02-01", 41.01 ], [ "2026-04-01", 45.64 ], [ "2026-06-01", 50.46 ], [ "2026-08-01", 54.77 ], [ "2026-10-01", 66.06 ] ] }, "move": { "key": "move", "label": "Anleihevolatilit\u00e4t (MOVE)", "unit": "Punkte", "decimals": 1, "note": "Das Pendant zum VIX f\u00fcr Zinsen: implizite Volatilit\u00e4t von Treasury-Optionen. Nicht die H\u00f6he der Renditen ist der \u00dcbertragungskanal, sondern die UNORDNUNG der Bewegung \u2014 steigende Anleihevolatilit\u00e4t hebt Haircuts und Einschusszahlungen auf genau die Sicherheiten, mit denen das System sich finanziert. Monatsmittel ab 2002; der Index ist propriet\u00e4r und wird keylos nur \u00fcber den undokumentierten Yahoo-Endpunkt erreicht \u2014 f\u00e4llt er aus, wird die Kachel unbeobachtet, statt die Ebene mitzunehmen.", "source": "ICE BofA MOVE \u00fcber Yahoo Finance (^MOVE), monatlich ab 2002", "raw": 98.5, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "2002-12-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 98.47175216674805, "mean": 80.43509763081869, "gap": 18.036654535929358, "gap_sd": 0.66, "drift": 15.047514311472582, "drift_per_decade": 30.095028622945165, "drift_sd": 0.5, "position": "ueber", "position_label": "\u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "aufbruch", "regime_label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben.", "percentile": 68.6, "extreme_since": "2025-04-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "2000er", "mean": 105.42729375502643, "n": 85 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 71.24541660944621, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 90.46233805214486, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 287, "start": "2002-12-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 1, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 68.64, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.58, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 16.59, "run": 0, "change": 34.94, "move_pct": 75.8, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2012-11-01", 0.83 ], [ "2012-12-01", 3.31 ], [ "2013-01-01", 12.3 ], [ "2013-02-01", 1.63 ], [ "2013-03-01", 3.23 ], [ "2013-04-01", 0.8 ], [ "2013-05-01", 36.51 ], [ "2013-06-01", 60.63 ], [ "2013-07-01", 39.06 ], [ "2013-08-01", 65.12 ], [ "2013-09-01", 36.92 ], [ "2013-10-01", 9.92 ], [ "2013-11-01", 17.42 ], [ "2013-12-01", 26.32 ], [ "2014-01-01", 13.43 ], [ "2014-02-01", 4.44 ], [ "2014-03-01", 11.03 ], [ "2014-04-01", 5.84 ], [ "2014-05-01", 5.07 ], [ "2014-06-01", 2.16 ], [ "2014-07-01", 3.57 ], [ "2014-08-01", 11.35 ], [ "2014-09-01", 17.61 ], [ "2014-10-01", 25.17 ], [ "2014-11-01", 20.14 ], [ "2014-12-01", 26.21 ], [ "2015-01-01", 50.0 ], [ "2015-02-01", 58.5 ], [ "2015-03-01", 47.97 ], [ "2015-04-01", 34.9 ], [ "2015-05-01", 45.33 ], [ "2015-06-01", 59.6 ], [ "2015-07-01", 35.53 ], [ "2015-08-01", 51.63 ], [ "2015-09-01", 43.51 ], [ "2015-10-01", 29.03 ], [ "2015-11-01", 26.28 ], [ "2015-12-01", 20.38 ], [ "2016-01-01", 32.91 ], [ "2016-02-01", 47.17 ], [ "2016-03-01", 24.38 ], [ "2016-04-01", 16.77 ], [ "2016-05-01", 21.6 ], [ "2016-06-01", 30.67 ], [ "2016-07-01", 15.24 ], [ "2016-08-01", 26.67 ], [ "2016-09-01", 10.24 ], [ "2016-10-01", 17.96 ], [ "2016-11-01", 46.43 ], [ "2016-12-01", 30.77 ], [ "2017-01-01", 32.35 ], [ "2017-02-01", 29.24 ], [ "2017-03-01", 10.47 ], [ "2017-04-01", 8.67 ], [ "2017-05-01", 2.3 ], [ "2017-06-01", 2.86 ], [ "2017-07-01", 0.57 ], [ "2017-08-01", 1.69 ], [ "2017-09-01", 3.37 ], [ "2017-10-01", 2.23 ], [ "2017-11-01", 0.56 ], [ "2017-12-01", 0.55 ], [ "2018-01-01", 8.24 ], [ "2018-02-01", 18.58 ], [ "2018-03-01", 10.33 ], [ "2018-04-01", 2.7 ], [ "2018-05-01", 15.59 ], [ "2018-06-01", 4.28 ], [ "2018-07-01", 0.53 ], [ "2018-08-01", 3.7 ], [ "2018-09-01", 0.53 ], [ "2018-10-01", 15.71 ], [ "2018-11-01", 6.77 ], [ "2018-12-01", 27.98 ], [ "2019-01-01", 3.61 ], [ "2019-02-01", 2.56 ], [ "2019-03-01", 14.29 ], [ "2019-04-01", 4.06 ], [ "2019-05-01", 42.42 ], [ "2019-06-01", 38.19 ], [ "2019-07-01", 10.5 ], [ "2019-08-01", 62.19 ], [ "2019-09-01", 50.5 ], [ "2019-10-01", 29.06 ], [ "2019-11-01", 11.76 ], [ "2019-12-01", 14.15 ], [ "2020-01-01", 43.69 ], [ "2020-02-01", 82.61 ], [ "2020-03-01", 58.65 ], [ "2020-04-01", 9.09 ], [ "2020-05-01", 7.14 ], [ "2020-06-01", 10.43 ], [ "2020-07-01", 0.47 ], [ "2020-08-01", 2.82 ], [ "2020-09-01", 0.47 ], [ "2020-10-01", 25.58 ], [ "2020-11-01", 0.93 ], [ "2020-12-01", 5.07 ], [ "2021-01-01", 4.59 ], [ "2021-02-01", 51.14 ], [ "2021-03-01", 41.82 ], [ "2021-04-01", 17.19 ], [ "2021-05-01", 10.36 ], [ "2021-06-01", 16.59 ], [ "2021-07-01", 25.89 ], [ "2021-08-01", 21.33 ], [ "2021-09-01", 26.11 ], [ "2021-10-01", 51.98 ], [ "2021-11-01", 62.28 ], [ "2021-12-01", 54.59 ], [ "2022-01-01", 63.04 ], [ "2022-02-01", 77.92 ], [ "2022-03-01", 83.19 ], [ "2022-04-01", 92.27 ], [ "2022-05-01", 82.91 ], [ "2022-06-01", 94.04 ], [ "2022-07-01", 86.86 ], [ "2022-08-01", 90.72 ], [ "2022-09-01", 94.54 ], [ "2022-10-01", 95.4 ], [ "2022-11-01", 90.83 ], [ "2022-12-01", 87.97 ], [ "2023-01-01", 72.73 ], [ "2023-02-01", 88.48 ], [ "2023-03-01", 93.44 ], [ "2023-04-01", 87.35 ], [ "2023-05-01", 93.5 ], [ "2023-06-01", 80.97 ], [ "2023-07-01", 81.85 ], [ "2023-08-01", 79.52 ], [ "2023-09-01", 83.2 ], [ "2023-10-01", 90.04 ], [ "2023-11-01", 83.33 ], [ "2023-12-01", 83.0 ], [ "2024-01-01", 77.56 ], [ "2024-02-01", 78.43 ], [ "2024-03-01", 58.98 ], [ "2024-04-01", 77.43 ], [ "2024-05-01", 65.12 ], [ "2024-06-01", 68.73 ], [ "2024-07-01", 68.85 ], [ "2024-08-01", 78.16 ], [ "2024-09-01", 66.03 ], [ "2024-10-01", 92.78 ], [ "2024-11-01", 65.91 ], [ "2024-12-01", 68.3 ], [ "2025-01-01", 63.91 ], [ "2025-02-01", 74.16 ], [ "2025-03-01", 71.27 ], [ "2025-04-01", 82.16 ], [ "2025-05-01", 63.33 ], [ "2025-06-01", 60.89 ], [ "2025-07-01", 48.53 ], [ "2025-08-01", 48.35 ], [ "2025-09-01", 46.72 ], [ "2025-10-01", 29.09 ], [ "2025-11-01", 33.7 ], [ "2025-12-01", 25.27 ], [ "2026-01-01", 16.91 ], [ "2026-02-01", 40.86 ], [ "2026-03-01", 66.43 ], [ "2026-04-01", 37.72 ], [ "2026-05-01", 35.46 ], [ "2026-06-01", 37.81 ], [ "2026-07-01", 53.52 ], [ "2026-08-01", 44.21 ], [ "2026-09-01", 80.77 ], [ "2026-10-01", 68.64 ] ] }, "sofr_iorb": { "key": "sofr_iorb", "label": "Repo-Aufschlag (SOFR \u2212 IORB)", "unit": "%-Punkte", "decimals": 2, "note": "Momentanzeige mit deklarierter Schwelle statt Stress-Track: Die Reihe existiert erst seit 2021 \u2014 zu kurz f\u00fcr ein expandierendes Perzentil. Notiert die besicherte \u00dcbernachtfinanzierung sp\u00fcrbar \u00fcber dem Einlagenzins der Fed (\u2265 0,10 %-Punkte), konkurrieren H\u00e4ndler um knappe Bilanz \u2014 das Muster von September 2019.", "source": "NY Fed / Fed \u00fcber FRED (SOFR, IORB), t\u00e4glich ab 2021", "raw": -0.02, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "2021-07-01", "mode": "spot", "regime": null, "regime_why": "Reihe erst ab 2021: zu kurz f\u00fcr ein Zehnjahresfenster plus F\u00fcnfjahresversatz \u2014 dieselbe Grenze, die hier schon das expandierende Perzentil verhindert.", "threshold": 0.1, "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "2021-11-01", -0.1 ], [ "2021-12-01", -0.1005 ], [ "2022-01-01", -0.102 ], [ "2022-02-01", -0.1005 ], [ "2022-03-01", -0.1083 ], [ "2022-04-01", -0.114 ], [ "2022-05-01", -0.1124 ], [ "2022-06-01", -0.1605 ], [ "2022-07-01", -0.118 ], [ "2022-08-01", -0.1165 ], [ "2022-09-01", -0.1386 ], [ "2022-10-01", -0.1135 ], [ "2022-11-01", -0.103 ], [ "2022-12-01", -0.0962 ], [ "2023-01-01", -0.0955 ], [ "2023-02-01", -0.0989 ], [ "2023-03-01", -0.0904 ], [ "2023-04-01", -0.0937 ], [ "2023-05-01", -0.0932 ], [ "2023-06-01", -0.0938 ], [ "2023-07-01", -0.093 ], [ "2023-08-01", -0.0991 ], [ "2023-09-01", -0.094 ], [ "2023-10-01", -0.0886 ], [ "2023-11-01", -0.081 ], [ "2023-12-01", -0.0645 ], [ "2024-01-01", -0.079 ], [ "2024-02-01", -0.091 ], [ "2024-03-01", -0.087 ], [ "2024-04-01", -0.0832 ], [ "2024-05-01", -0.0855 ], [ "2024-06-01", -0.0747 ], [ "2024-07-01", -0.0568 ], [ "2024-08-01", -0.0673 ], [ "2024-09-01", -0.0545 ], [ "2024-10-01", -0.0509 ], [ "2024-11-01", -0.0721 ], [ "2024-12-01", -0.0229 ], [ "2025-01-01", -0.0843 ], [ "2025-02-01", -0.0563 ], [ "2025-03-01", -0.0733 ], [ "2025-04-01", -0.0514 ], [ "2025-05-01", -0.0948 ], [ "2025-06-01", -0.0835 ], [ "2025-07-01", -0.0632 ], [ "2025-08-01", -0.0557 ], [ "2025-09-01", 0.0067 ], [ "2025-10-01", 0.0736 ], [ "2025-11-01", 0.0778 ], [ "2025-12-01", 0.0591 ], [ "2026-01-01", 0.0065 ], [ "2026-02-01", 0.0174 ], [ "2026-03-01", 0.0005 ], [ "2026-04-01", -0.0081 ], [ "2026-05-01", -0.0645 ], [ "2026-06-01", -0.0219 ], [ "2026-07-01", -0.0309 ], [ "2026-08-01", -0.0081 ], [ "2026-09-01", -0.0181 ], [ "2026-10-01", -0.0183 ] ], "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": -0.61, "direction": "abnehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": -0.05, "run": 0, "change": -0.1, "move_pct": 94.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "vix": { "key": "vix", "label": "Aktienvolatilit\u00e4t VIX", "unit": "Punkte", "decimals": 1, "note": "Monatsmittel der impliziten Volatilit\u00e4t \u2014 der sichtbarste Ausdruck eines globalen Risikoabbaus, wenn gehebelte Positionen aufgel\u00f6st werden.", "source": "Cboe \u00fcber FRED (VIXCLS), t\u00e4glich ab 1990", "raw": 15.5, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1990-01-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 15.453333333333333, "mean": 18.62177863726345, "gap": -3.168445303930117, "gap_sd": -0.48, "drift": 1.3999818428234647, "drift_per_decade": 2.7999636856469294, "drift_sd": 0.19, "position": "unter", "position_label": "unter dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "nachlauf", "regime_label": "R\u00fccksetzer in steigender Epoche", "regime_desc": "Unter dem Mittel, obwohl die Epoche steigt. Entwarnung nur auf Sicht von Monaten; die l\u00e4ngere Bewegung zeigt in die andere Richtung.", "percentile": 33.7, "extreme_since": "2025-09-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1990er", "mean": 18.479681005406576, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": 22.141484292169817, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 16.861122606458505, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 20.590690565648192, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 442, "start": "1990-01-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 1, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 33.71, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": -0.36, "direction": "abnehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": -15.81, "run": 0, "change": -27.31, "move_pct": 62.2, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1999-12-01", 76.67 ], [ "2000-02-01", 81.15 ], [ "2000-04-01", 91.94 ], [ "2000-06-01", 69.84 ], [ "2000-08-01", 54.69 ], [ "2000-10-01", 86.92 ], [ "2000-12-01", 91.67 ], [ "2001-02-01", 76.87 ], [ "2001-04-01", 93.38 ], [ "2001-06-01", 64.49 ], [ "2001-08-01", 68.57 ], [ "2001-10-01", 97.89 ], [ "2001-12-01", 77.08 ], [ "2002-02-01", 69.86 ], [ "2002-04-01", 54.05 ], [ "2002-06-01", 84.0 ], [ "2002-08-01", 97.37 ], [ "2002-10-01", 98.05 ], [ "2002-12-01", 91.03 ], [ "2003-02-01", 94.94 ], [ "2003-04-01", 75.0 ], [ "2003-06-01", 56.17 ], [ "2003-08-01", 46.95 ], [ "2003-10-01", 42.17 ], [ "2003-12-01", 33.93 ], [ "2004-02-01", 27.65 ], [ "2004-04-01", 26.16 ], [ "2004-06-01", 25.29 ], [ "2004-08-01", 34.66 ], [ "2004-10-01", 22.47 ], [ "2004-12-01", 9.44 ], [ "2005-02-01", 2.75 ], [ "2005-04-01", 24.46 ], [ "2005-06-01", 3.76 ], [ "2005-08-01", 14.89 ], [ "2005-10-01", 26.84 ], [ "2005-12-01", 1.04 ], [ "2006-02-01", 12.89 ], [ "2006-04-01", 5.1 ], [ "2006-06-01", 42.93 ], [ "2006-08-01", 19.0 ], [ "2006-10-01", 1.98 ], [ "2006-12-01", 0.98 ], [ "2007-02-01", 2.43 ], [ "2007-04-01", 19.71 ], [ "2007-06-01", 32.38 ], [ "2007-08-01", 83.49 ], [ "2007-10-01", 56.54 ], [ "2007-12-01", 68.98 ], [ "2008-02-01", 84.4 ], [ "2008-04-01", 67.27 ], [ "2008-06-01", 70.27 ], [ "2008-08-01", 64.29 ], [ "2008-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-12-01", 99.12 ], [ "2009-02-01", 98.7 ], [ "2009-04-01", 96.98 ], [ "2009-06-01", 90.6 ], [ "2009-08-01", 80.08 ], [ "2009-10-01", 75.63 ], [ "2009-12-01", 61.67 ], [ "2010-02-01", 67.77 ], [ "2010-04-01", 43.03 ], [ "2010-06-01", 91.06 ], [ "2010-08-01", 76.61 ], [ "2010-10-01", 58.0 ], [ "2010-12-01", 42.86 ], [ "2011-02-01", 42.13 ], [ "2011-04-01", 33.59 ], [ "2011-06-01", 50.39 ], [ "2011-08-01", 95.38 ], [ "2011-10-01", 93.89 ], [ "2011-12-01", 78.03 ], [ "2012-02-01", 48.12 ], [ "2012-04-01", 45.52 ], [ "2012-06-01", 61.48 ], [ "2012-08-01", 29.41 ], [ "2012-10-01", 32.85 ], [ "2012-12-01", 39.86 ], [ "2013-02-01", 21.58 ], [ "2013-04-01", 21.43 ], [ "2013-06-01", 40.07 ], [ "2013-08-01", 23.94 ], [ "2013-10-01", 30.42 ], [ "2013-12-01", 23.96 ], [ "2014-02-01", 31.38 ], [ "2014-04-01", 23.97 ], [ "2014-06-01", 4.08 ], [ "2014-08-01", 18.58 ], [ "2014-10-01", 51.01 ], [ "2014-12-01", 37.33 ], [ "2015-02-01", 34.77 ], [ "2015-04-01", 19.41 ], [ "2015-06-01", 26.47 ], [ "2015-08-01", 56.82 ], [ "2015-10-01", 41.61 ], [ "2015-12-01", 51.92 ], [ "2016-02-01", 71.02 ], [ "2016-04-01", 25.63 ], [ "2016-06-01", 50.94 ], [ "2016-08-01", 9.69 ], [ "2016-10-01", 28.57 ], [ "2016-12-01", 11.42 ], [ "2017-02-01", 3.68 ], [ "2017-04-01", 16.46 ], [ "2017-06-01", 0.3 ], [ "2017-08-01", 8.43 ], [ "2017-10-01", 0.3 ], [ "2017-12-01", 0.89 ], [ "2018-02-01", 72.78 ], [ "2018-04-01", 55.59 ], [ "2018-06-01", 24.27 ], [ "2018-08-01", 15.7 ], [ "2018-10-01", 60.12 ], [ "2018-12-01", 82.76 ], [ "2019-02-01", 35.43 ], [ "2019-04-01", 17.61 ], [ "2019-06-01", 39.27 ], [ "2019-08-01", 57.58 ], [ "2019-10-01", 37.43 ], [ "2019-12-01", 25.56 ], [ "2020-02-01", 62.43 ], [ "2020-04-01", 98.08 ], [ "2020-06-01", 92.9 ], [ "2020-08-01", 74.73 ], [ "2020-10-01", 91.35 ], [ "2020-12-01", 72.31 ], [ "2021-02-01", 74.6 ], [ "2021-04-01", 48.67 ], [ "2021-06-01", 46.3 ], [ "2021-08-01", 49.21 ], [ "2021-10-01", 53.14 ], [ "2021-12-01", 68.49 ], [ "2022-02-01", 85.23 ], [ "2022-04-01", 79.9 ], [ "2022-06-01", 90.26 ], [ "2022-08-01", 70.41 ], [ "2022-10-01", 92.39 ], [ "2022-12-01", 68.18 ], [ "2023-02-01", 61.56 ], [ "2023-04-01", 50.5 ], [ "2023-06-01", 24.38 ], [ "2023-08-01", 36.88 ], [ "2023-10-01", 54.68 ], [ "2023-12-01", 13.97 ], [ "2024-02-01", 24.63 ], [ "2024-04-01", 38.83 ], [ "2024-06-01", 13.77 ], [ "2024-08-01", 58.17 ], [ "2024-10-01", 61.96 ], [ "2024-12-01", 37.86 ], [ "2025-02-01", 45.5 ], [ "2025-04-01", 94.58 ], [ "2025-06-01", 54.93 ], [ "2025-08-01", 36.21 ], [ "2025-10-01", 53.72 ], [ "2025-12-01", 34.95 ], [ "2026-02-01", 57.83 ], [ "2026-04-01", 61.24 ], [ "2026-06-01", 52.51 ], [ "2026-08-01", 32.05 ], [ "2026-10-01", 33.71 ] ] }, "nfci": { "key": "nfci", "label": "Finanzierungsbedingungen (NFCI)", "unit": "Index", "decimals": 2, "note": "Chicago-Fed-Sammelindex aus \u00fcber 100 Reihen zu Geldmarkt, Kredit und Hebel; positiv = straffer als der historische Durchschnitt. Das Ende der Kette: Hier entscheidet sich, ob ein Finanzschock die Realwirtschaft erreicht.", "source": "Chicago Fed \u00fcber FRED (NFCI), w\u00f6chentlich ab 1971", "raw": -0.49, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1971-01-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": -0.494, "mean": -0.45859833333333333, "gap": -0.035401666666666665, "gap_sd": -0.23, "drift": 0.06419750000000002, "drift_per_decade": 0.12839500000000004, "drift_sd": 0.06, "position": "am_mittel", "position_label": "auf dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "seitwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche gehalten", "regime": "epochentypisch", "regime_label": "epochentypisch", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau sitzt innerhalb einer Viertel-Streuung auf dem eigenen 10-Jahres-Mittel. Es gibt hier keine Epochenaussage \u2014 das ist eine Information, keine L\u00fccke.", "percentile": 39.6, "extreme_since": "2025-06-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1970er", "mean": 0.7845476851851851, "n": 108 }, { "label": "1980er", "mean": 0.7696741666666667, "n": 120 }, { "label": "1990er", "mean": -0.5334062500000001, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": -0.16110833333333333, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": -0.49579458333333337, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": -0.4197658536585366, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 670, "start": "1971-01-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 2, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 39.55, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -0.7, "run": 2, "change": 2.37, "move_pct": 15.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1980-12-01", 93.33 ], [ "1981-04-01", 75.0 ], [ "1981-08-01", 93.75 ], [ "1981-12-01", 78.79 ], [ "1982-04-01", 79.41 ], [ "1982-08-01", 92.86 ], [ "1982-12-01", 43.06 ], [ "1983-04-01", 23.65 ], [ "1983-08-01", 24.34 ], [ "1983-12-01", 31.41 ], [ "1984-04-01", 36.25 ], [ "1984-08-01", 49.39 ], [ "1984-12-01", 16.67 ], [ "1985-04-01", 14.53 ], [ "1985-08-01", 21.02 ], [ "1985-12-01", 17.22 ], [ "1986-04-01", 13.04 ], [ "1986-08-01", 7.98 ], [ "1986-12-01", 10.42 ], [ "1987-04-01", 43.37 ], [ "1987-08-01", 37.5 ], [ "1987-12-01", 60.78 ], [ "1988-04-01", 44.71 ], [ "1988-08-01", 50.47 ], [ "1988-12-01", 41.2 ], [ "1989-04-01", 59.09 ], [ "1989-08-01", 44.2 ], [ "1989-12-01", 34.21 ], [ "1990-04-01", 37.5 ], [ "1990-08-01", 37.71 ], [ "1990-12-01", 57.08 ], [ "1991-04-01", 22.54 ], [ "1991-08-01", 8.87 ], [ "1991-12-01", 4.76 ], [ "1992-04-01", 2.34 ], [ "1992-08-01", 1.15 ], [ "1992-12-01", 3.03 ], [ "1993-04-01", 0.37 ], [ "1993-08-01", 0.37 ], [ "1993-12-01", 2.9 ], [ "1994-04-01", 8.93 ], [ "1994-08-01", 8.8 ], [ "1994-12-01", 24.65 ], [ "1995-04-01", 15.07 ], [ "1995-08-01", 13.51 ], [ "1995-12-01", 9.0 ], [ "1996-04-01", 16.12 ], [ "1996-08-01", 11.04 ], [ "1996-12-01", 12.82 ], [ "1997-04-01", 21.52 ], [ "1997-08-01", 21.56 ], [ "1997-12-01", 29.63 ], [ "1998-04-01", 24.7 ], [ "1998-08-01", 35.54 ], [ "1998-12-01", 44.05 ], [ "1999-04-01", 34.12 ], [ "1999-08-01", 44.77 ], [ "1999-12-01", 43.97 ], [ "2000-04-01", 51.14 ], [ "2000-08-01", 43.54 ], [ "2000-12-01", 50.28 ], [ "2001-04-01", 36.54 ], [ "2001-08-01", 29.35 ], [ "2001-12-01", 35.48 ], [ "2002-04-01", 25.27 ], [ "2002-08-01", 33.95 ], [ "2002-12-01", 30.99 ], [ "2003-04-01", 18.81 ], [ "2003-08-01", 16.58 ], [ "2003-12-01", 11.87 ], [ "2004-04-01", 7.75 ], [ "2004-08-01", 17.33 ], [ "2004-12-01", 15.44 ], [ "2005-04-01", 25.49 ], [ "2005-08-01", 26.44 ], [ "2005-12-01", 28.81 ], [ "2006-04-01", 25.47 ], [ "2006-08-01", 27.34 ], [ "2006-12-01", 25.23 ], [ "2007-04-01", 28.44 ], [ "2007-08-01", 63.18 ], [ "2007-12-01", 77.48 ], [ "2008-04-01", 80.58 ], [ "2008-08-01", 79.65 ], [ "2008-12-01", 95.83 ], [ "2009-04-01", 86.96 ], [ "2009-08-01", 68.97 ], [ "2009-12-01", 54.7 ], [ "2010-04-01", 38.98 ], [ "2010-08-01", 46.01 ], [ "2010-12-01", 34.79 ], [ "2011-04-01", 27.07 ], [ "2011-08-01", 48.98 ], [ "2011-12-01", 55.89 ], [ "2012-04-01", 39.92 ], [ "2012-08-01", 38.4 ], [ "2012-12-01", 25.99 ], [ "2013-04-01", 16.14 ], [ "2013-08-01", 17.97 ], [ "2013-12-01", 5.81 ], [ "2014-04-01", 6.35 ], [ "2014-08-01", 10.69 ], [ "2014-12-01", 27.27 ], [ "2015-04-01", 34.21 ], [ "2015-08-01", 41.04 ], [ "2015-12-01", 44.81 ], [ "2016-04-01", 45.59 ], [ "2016-08-01", 47.08 ], [ "2016-12-01", 40.04 ], [ "2017-04-01", 36.51 ], [ "2017-08-01", 29.29 ], [ "2017-12-01", 25.18 ], [ "2018-04-01", 36.09 ], [ "2018-08-01", 26.75 ], [ "2018-12-01", 43.23 ], [ "2019-04-01", 24.14 ], [ "2019-08-01", 33.73 ], [ "2019-12-01", 32.99 ], [ "2020-04-01", 74.66 ], [ "2020-08-01", 38.59 ], [ "2020-12-01", 26.17 ], [ "2021-04-01", 16.89 ], [ "2021-08-01", 19.74 ], [ "2021-12-01", 34.8 ], [ "2022-04-01", 51.62 ], [ "2022-08-01", 57.9 ], [ "2022-12-01", 59.62 ], [ "2023-04-01", 60.99 ], [ "2023-08-01", 52.85 ], [ "2023-12-01", 51.42 ], [ "2024-04-01", 45.47 ], [ "2024-08-01", 49.38 ], [ "2024-12-01", 40.28 ], [ "2025-04-01", 48.77 ], [ "2025-08-01", 35.82 ], [ "2025-12-01", 36.06 ], [ "2026-04-01", 40.81 ], [ "2026-08-01", 31.74 ], [ "2026-10-01", 39.55 ] ] }, "mortgage30y": { "key": "mortgage30y", "label": "US-Hypothekenzins 30 Jahre", "unit": "%", "decimals": 2, "note": "Das Haushaltsende der Kette, das bis zum 12.10.2026 fehlte: Die Karte endete bei den Finanzierungsbedingungen der Unternehmen. Die 30-j\u00e4hrige Hypothek ist ein Aufschlagsprodukt auf die 10-j\u00e4hrige Treasury \u2014 der Weg, auf dem eine Bewegung am langen Ende private Bilanzen erreicht. Gemessen wird das Anstiegstempo, nicht das Niveau: Der Bestand ist weit \u00fcberwiegend fest verzinst, ein Zinsschritt \u00e4ndert dort KEINE laufende Rate. Er trifft, wer neu finanzieren oder umziehen muss \u2014 und friert den Rest ein (Lock-in). Die Niveaufrage tr\u00e4gt der Epochenstand darunter, und sie f\u00e4llt anders aus als der Tempo-Rang: 7,4 % sind gegen 1981 (\u00fcber 18 %) wenig und gegen die 2010er viel.", "source": "Freddie Mac PMMS \u00fcber FRED (MORTGAGE30US), w\u00f6chentlich ab 1971", "raw": 7.34, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "start": "1971-04-01", "mode": "track", "regime": { "level": 7.34, "mean": 5.005658333333333, "gap": 2.334341666666667, "gap_sd": 1.54, "drift": 1.206729166666666, "drift_per_decade": 2.413458333333332, "drift_sd": 0.38, "position": "ueber", "position_label": "\u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel", "direction": "aufwaerts", "direction_label": "Epoche steigt", "regime": "aufbruch", "regime_label": "Regimewechsel aufw\u00e4rts", "regime_desc": "Das Niveau liegt \u00fcber dem 10-Jahres-Mittel, und dieses Mittel ist selbst gestiegen. Beides zusammen hei\u00dft: Nicht ein Jahr ist auff\u00e4llig, die Epoche hat sich verschoben.", "percentile": 51.4, "extreme_since": "2023-11-01", "epochs": [ { "label": "1970er", "mean": 8.896380952380952, "n": 105 }, { "label": "1980er", "mean": 12.70435, "n": 120 }, { "label": "1990er", "mean": 8.118475, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2000er", "mean": 6.292108333333333, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2010er", "mean": 4.091758333333334, "n": 120 }, { "label": "2020er", "mean": 5.404213414634147, "n": 82 } ], "n_months": 667, "start": "1971-04-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "decimals": 2, "window_years": 10, "drift_years": 5 }, "regime_why": null, "tcode": "CHANGE", "tcode_label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 1.09, "stress": 85.04, "status": "erhoeht", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.88, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 29.31, "run": 9, "change": 55.69, "move_pct": 90.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1982-03-01", 80.83 ], [ "1982-07-01", 27.42 ], [ "1982-11-01", 0.78 ], [ "1983-03-01", 1.52 ], [ "1983-07-01", 6.62 ], [ "1983-11-01", 17.14 ], [ "1984-03-01", 53.47 ], [ "1984-07-01", 72.3 ], [ "1984-11-01", 44.74 ], [ "1985-03-01", 22.44 ], [ "1985-07-01", 7.5 ], [ "1985-11-01", 10.98 ], [ "1986-03-01", 6.55 ], [ "1986-07-01", 15.7 ], [ "1986-11-01", 13.64 ], [ "1987-03-01", 20.0 ], [ "1987-07-01", 32.07 ], [ "1987-11-01", 68.09 ], [ "1988-03-01", 66.15 ], [ "1988-07-01", 50.51 ], [ "1988-11-01", 25.5 ], [ "1989-03-01", 73.04 ], [ "1989-07-01", 21.63 ], [ "1989-11-01", 22.64 ], [ "1990-03-01", 19.91 ], [ "1990-07-01", 52.73 ], [ "1990-11-01", 56.25 ], [ "1991-03-01", 19.3 ], [ "1991-07-01", 25.0 ], [ "1991-11-01", 15.25 ], [ "1992-03-01", 25.42 ], [ "1992-07-01", 14.34 ], [ "1992-11-01", 31.45 ], [ "1993-03-01", 14.29 ], [ "1993-07-01", 21.48 ], [ "1993-11-01", 17.69 ], [ "1994-03-01", 60.98 ], [ "1994-07-01", 89.55 ], [ "1994-11-01", 92.28 ], [ "1995-03-01", 68.48 ], [ "1995-07-01", 20.36 ], [ "1995-11-01", 10.56 ], [ "1996-03-01", 25.0 ], [ "1996-07-01", 67.81 ], [ "1996-11-01", 61.15 ], [ "1997-03-01", 61.67 ], [ "1997-07-01", 26.97 ], [ "1997-11-01", 34.74 ], [ "1998-03-01", 25.64 ], [ "1998-07-01", 32.91 ], [ "1998-11-01", 39.69 ], [ "1999-03-01", 50.0 ], [ "1999-07-01", 71.95 ], [ "1999-11-01", 75.3 ], [ "2000-03-01", 82.74 ], [ "2000-07-01", 66.18 ], [ "2000-11-01", 53.2 ], [ "2001-03-01", 12.93 ], [ "2001-07-01", 18.75 ], [ "2001-11-01", 17.13 ], [ "2002-03-01", 56.94 ], [ "2002-07-01", 29.4 ], [ "2002-11-01", 31.52 ], [ "2003-03-01", 13.17 ], [ "2003-07-01", 24.2 ], [ "2003-11-01", 49.74 ], [ "2004-03-01", 41.67 ], [ "2004-07-01", 68.3 ], [ "2004-11-01", 47.19 ], [ "2005-03-01", 69.7 ], [ "2005-07-01", 38.75 ], [ "2005-11-01", 72.28 ], [ "2006-03-01", 68.14 ], [ "2006-07-01", 80.83 ], [ "2006-11-01", 49.76 ], [ "2007-03-01", 45.48 ], [ "2007-07-01", 50.94 ], [ "2007-11-01", 53.04 ], [ "2008-03-01", 44.91 ], [ "2008-07-01", 40.83 ], [ "2008-11-01", 49.32 ], [ "2009-03-01", 18.92 ], [ "2009-07-01", 12.28 ], [ "2009-11-01", 12.17 ], [ "2010-03-01", 55.26 ], [ "2010-07-01", 27.61 ], [ "2010-11-01", 31.03 ], [ "2011-03-01", 50.43 ], [ "2011-07-01", 57.84 ], [ "2011-11-01", 39.71 ], [ "2012-03-01", 20.21 ], [ "2012-07-01", 18.8 ], [ "2012-11-01", 29.92 ], [ "2013-03-01", 38.01 ], [ "2013-07-01", 80.04 ], [ "2013-11-01", 82.2 ], [ "2014-03-01", 77.98 ], [ "2014-07-01", 44.49 ], [ "2014-11-01", 44.14 ], [ "2015-03-01", 31.2 ], [ "2015-07-01", 54.62 ], [ "2015-11-01", 56.49 ], [ "2016-03-01", 54.92 ], [ "2016-07-01", 29.32 ], [ "2016-11-01", 49.44 ], [ "2017-03-01", 74.07 ], [ "2017-07-01", 75.0 ], [ "2017-11-01", 66.06 ], [ "2018-03-01", 68.84 ], [ "2018-07-01", 75.36 ], [ "2018-11-01", 83.93 ], [ "2019-03-01", 46.99 ], [ "2019-07-01", 22.01 ], [ "2019-11-01", 11.19 ], [ "2020-03-01", 21.01 ], [ "2020-07-01", 23.97 ], [ "2020-11-01", 17.12 ], [ "2021-03-01", 37.59 ], [ "2021-07-01", 51.35 ], [ "2021-11-01", 70.97 ], [ "2022-03-01", 86.83 ], [ "2022-07-01", 97.68 ], [ "2022-11-01", 98.68 ], [ "2023-03-01", 96.08 ], [ "2023-07-01", 92.37 ], [ "2023-11-01", 75.16 ], [ "2024-03-01", 66.99 ], [ "2024-07-01", 58.12 ], [ "2024-11-01", 27.37 ], [ "2025-03-01", 47.17 ], [ "2025-07-01", 50.16 ], [ "2025-11-01", 29.35 ], [ "2026-03-01", 32.25 ], [ "2026-07-01", 47.09 ], [ "2026-10-01", 85.04 ] ] } }, "nodes": [ { "key": "hormuz", "label": "Stra\u00dfe von Hormus / \u00d6langebot", "region": "Geopolitik", "desc": "Der wichtigste Energie-Chokepoint der Welt. Eine Sperrung wirkt nicht als eigener Datenpunkt, sondern \u00fcber den Preis \u2014 gemessen wird deshalb der \u00d6lpreisschub.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "oil_brent", "stress": 97.84, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 125.3, "unit": "USD/Barrel", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "region": "USA / global", "desc": "Der \u00dcbersetzer zwischen Rohstoffschock und Geldpolitik: Energie-Teuerung bindet Notenbanken und Haushalte.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "cpi_energy", "stress": 88.21, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 321.1, "unit": "Index 1982\u201384=100", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "japan_jgb", "label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "region": "Japan", "desc": "Jahrzehnte Nullzins haben die gr\u00f6\u00dften Anleihebest\u00e4nde der Welt aufget\u00fcrmt; jede Normalisierung erzeugt Kursverluste bei denen, die sie halten.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "jgb10y", "stress": 97.95, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 2.94, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "jp_institutions", "label": "Japanische Institutionelle", "region": "Japan", "desc": "Das Scharnier der Kette: Wer JGB-Verluste erleidet, kann gezwungen sein, Auslandsanlagen zu verkaufen \u2014 Repatriierung.", "kind": "unobserved", "stress": null, "status": "unbeobachtet", "why": "Banken, Lebensversicherer und Pensionsfonds tragen die JGB-Kursverluste und halten zugleich gro\u00dfe Auslandsbest\u00e4nde. Es gibt keine \u00f6ffentliche Hochfrequenzreihe zu ihren Bewertungsverlusten oder Umschichtungen; die Exponierung ist in BOJ Financial System Report und IMF GFSR beschrieben." }, { "key": "yen_carry", "label": "Yen-Carry-Trade", "region": "global", "desc": "Billig Yen leihen, h\u00f6her verzinst anlegen: Die Finanzierungsw\u00e4hrung der Welt. Schrumpft die Zinsdifferenz, werden Positionen aufgel\u00f6st \u2014 und Aufl\u00f6sen hei\u00dft Verkaufen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "usdjpy", "stress": 26.75, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 157.7, "unit": "Yen je USD", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "us_treasuries", "label": "US-Treasury-Markt (10 Jahre)", "region": "USA", "desc": "Sicherheitenbasis des Weltfinanzsystems und zugleich Refinanzierungsquelle des US-Staates \u2014 der Knoten, an dem Auslands- und Inlandsstress zusammenlaufen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "ust10y", "stress": 90.08, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 5.27, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "duration_premium", "label": "Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie", "region": "USA / global", "desc": "Die Diagnosestelle der Zinskurve: Sie trennt, ob Renditen steigen, weil der Markt die Geldpolitik neu bepreist, oder weil Anleger mehr Entsch\u00e4digung daf\u00fcr verlangen, Laufzeit \u00fcberhaupt zu halten. Nur der zweite Fall ist ein K\u00e4uferstreik.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "term_premium", "stress": 66.06, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 1.07, "unit": "%-Punkte", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "long_duration", "label": "Langes Ende (30 Jahre)", "region": "USA", "desc": "Wo Duration am meisten kostet: derselbe Renditeschritt wie bei der 10-j\u00e4hrigen schl\u00e4gt hier mit etwa dem doppelten Kursverlust durch \u2014 bei Haltern, die Laufzeit zur Deckung ihrer Verpflichtungen brauchen und nicht ausweichen k\u00f6nnen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "ust30y", "stress": 87.69, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 5.64, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "bond_vol", "label": "Anleihevolatilit\u00e4t", "region": "USA / global", "desc": "Das Scharnier von der Rendite zur Finanzierung: Nicht das Niveau der Zinsen verknappt Bilanz, sondern die Unordnung ihrer Bewegung \u2014 sie hebt Haircuts auf Treasury-Sicherheiten.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "move", "stress": 68.64, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 98.5, "unit": "Punkte", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "repo_collateral", "label": "Repo und Sicherheiten", "region": "USA", "desc": "Wo Sicherheitenwerte auf Hebel treffen: Fallende Anleihekurse l\u00f6sen Nachschusspflichten aus, Deleveraging der Basis-Trades verknappt Bilanz.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "sofr_iorb", "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "raw": -0.02, "unit": "%-Punkte", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "dollar_funding", "label": "Globale Dollar-Finanzierung", "region": "global", "desc": "Dollar-Knappheit zeigt sich in der Aufwertung des handelsgewichteten Dollar; die Basis-Swap-Aufschl\u00e4ge, die sie pr\u00e4ziser messen w\u00fcrden, haben keinen keylosen Endpunkt.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "dollar_index", "stress": 10.0, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 121.38, "unit": "Index 2006=100", "as_of": "2026-10-02" }, { "key": "risk_assets", "label": "Globaler Risikoabbau", "region": "global", "desc": "Die sichtbare Oberfl\u00e4che eines Unwinds: Volatilit\u00e4t springt, wenn gehebelte Positionen gleichzeitig durch dieselbe T\u00fcr wollen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "vix", "stress": 33.71, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 15.5, "unit": "Punkte", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "credit_conditions", "label": "US-Finanzierungsbedingungen", "region": "USA", "desc": "Das Ende der Kette: Versch\u00e4rfen sich Kreditkonditionen, erreicht der Finanzschock Unternehmen und Haushalte.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "nfci", "stress": 39.55, "status": "ruhig", "raw": -0.49, "unit": "Index", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "households", "label": "Private Haushalte / Wohnbaufinanzierung", "region": "USA", "desc": "Wo der Finanzschock die privaten Bilanzen erreicht: Der Hypothekenzins ist der Preis, zu dem ein Haushalt \u00fcberhaupt noch kaufen, umziehen oder umschulden kann. Endpunkt der Karte \u2014 tiefer hinein (Verzug, Zwangsvollstreckung) f\u00fchrt der Weg nicht \u00fcber den Zins, sondern \u00fcber den Arbeitsmarkt; der realisierte Schaden steht deshalb als eigene Reihe im zyklischen Radar, nicht als Knoten hier.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "mortgage30y", "stress": 85.04, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 7.34, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "us_fiscal", "label": "US-Zinslast", "region": "USA", "desc": "H\u00f6here Marktrenditen wandern \u00fcber die Refinanzierung in den Bundeshaushalt \u2014 der Verbindungspunkt zur Turchin-S\u00e4ule.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "interest_burden", "stress": 76.7, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 21.1, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, { "key": "reserve_status", "label": "Dollar-Reservestatus", "region": "global", "desc": "Die langsamste Gr\u00f6\u00dfe der Karte: Ob Zentralbanken die US-Verbindlichkeit weiter als Wertaufbewahrung akzeptieren \u2014 der Verbindungspunkt zur Dollar-S\u00e4ule.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "dollar_reserve_share", "stress": 97.3, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 56.7, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-06-01" } ], "edges": [ { "src": "hormuz", "dst": "energy_inflation", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Chokepoint-Pr\u00e4mie: Angebotsrisiko treibt Roh\u00f6l- und Frachtpreise, die in die Energie-Verbraucherpreise laufen.", "source": "Hamilton (1983); IEA Oil Market Report", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "energy_inflation", "dst": "japan_jgb", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Japan importiert nahezu seine gesamte Energie; Importinflation erh\u00f6ht den Straffungsdruck auf die Bank of Japan und damit die JGB-Renditen.", "source": "IMF Article IV Japan; BOJ Outlook Report", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "japan_jgb", "dst": "jp_institutions", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Bond-Mathematik: Renditeanstieg hei\u00dft Kursverlust auf Bestandsanleihen \u2014 Bewertungsdruck auf Banken, Versicherer, Pensionsfonds.", "source": "BOJ Financial System Report", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "japan_jgb", "dst": "yen_carry", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Steigende Heimzinsen verengen die Zinsdifferenz \u2014 die Gesch\u00e4ftsgrundlage des Carry Trade.", "source": "BIS Bulletin 90 (2024)", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "jp_institutions", "dst": "us_treasuries", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Repatriierung: Japan ist der gr\u00f6\u00dfte ausl\u00e4ndische Treasury-Gl\u00e4ubiger (~1,1 Bio. USD). Verk\u00e4ufe zur Deckung heimischer Verluste heben US-Renditen.", "source": "US Treasury TIC; IMF Global Financial Stability Report", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "yen_carry", "dst": "risk_assets", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Zwangsaufl\u00f6sung gehebelter Positionen erzeugt Verkaufsdruck auf Risikoanlagen weltweit \u2014 Episode vom August 2024.", "source": "BIS Quarterly Review, September 2024", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "us_treasuries", "dst": "repo_collateral", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Renditeanstieg senkt Sicherheitenwerte, l\u00f6st Nachschusspflichten aus und zwingt Basis-Trades ins Deleveraging.", "source": "BIS/Fed-Analysen zum M\u00e4rz 2020 (Dash for Cash)", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "repo_collateral", "dst": "dollar_funding", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Repo-Stress verknappt Dollar-Bilanz weltweit; die Knappheit zeigt sich in Basis-Swaps und Dollar-Aufwertung.", "source": "BIS Global Liquidity Indicators", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "dollar_funding", "dst": "credit_conditions", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Teurere Dollarfinanzierung versch\u00e4rft Spreads und Kreditkonditionen bis in die Realwirtschaft.", "source": "Chicago Fed, NFCI-Systematik", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "risk_assets", "dst": "credit_conditions", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Risikoabbau weitet Spreads und verteuert Unternehmensfinanzierung.", "source": "Gilchrist/Zakraj\u0161ek (2012), Excess Bond Premium", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "us_treasuries", "dst": "us_fiscal", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Marktrenditen wandern mit der Refinanzierung des Schuldenbestands in die Zinslast des Bundes \u2014 mechanisch, aber verz\u00f6gert.", "source": "Congressional Budget Office, Budget Outlook", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "us_fiscal", "dst": "duration_premium", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Angebotsdruck: Steigender Finanzierungsbedarf und ein wachsender Anteil langer Emissionen treffen auf eine begrenzte Zahl von K\u00e4ufern, die Laufzeitrisiko tragen wollen \u2014 der Preis daf\u00fcr ist die Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie. Richtung plausibel und literaturgest\u00fctzt, Gr\u00f6\u00dfe je nach Studie strittig.", "source": "CBO Budget Outlook; Fed-Analysen zum Treasury-Angebotseffekt", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "duration_premium", "dst": "long_duration", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Zerlegungsidentit\u00e4t, kein Kausalschluss: Die Rendite IST erwarteter Zinspfad plus Laufzeitpr\u00e4mie. Steigt die Pr\u00e4mie bei unver\u00e4ndertem Pfad, steigt das lange Ende \u2014 am 30-Jahres-Punkt st\u00e4rker, weil er mehr Laufzeitrisiko tr\u00e4gt.", "source": "Adrian/Crump/Moench (2013), NY Fed Staff Report 340", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "long_duration", "dst": "bond_vol", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Ungeordnete Bewegungen am langen Ende treiben die implizite Volatilit\u00e4t von Treasury-Optionen; H\u00e4ndler verlangen f\u00fcr Durationsrisiko mehr Puffer und stellen weniger Liquidit\u00e4t.", "source": "BIS Quarterly Review, M\u00e4rz 2020; Fed Notes zur Treasury-Marktliquidit\u00e4t", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "bond_vol", "dst": "repo_collateral", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Volatilit\u00e4t wandert in die Sicherheitenbewertung: h\u00f6here Haircuts und Einschusszahlungen auf Treasuries verknappen die Bilanz, mit der Basis-Trades finanziert werden \u2014 der Verst\u00e4rkungskanal des M\u00e4rz 2020.", "source": "BIS Quarterly Review, September 2020 (Dash for Cash); Fed Financial Stability Report", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "us_treasuries", "dst": "households", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Aufschlagsidentit\u00e4t, kein Kausalschluss: Der 30-j\u00e4hrige Hypothekenzins IST die 10-j\u00e4hrige Treasury-Rendite plus ein Aufschlag f\u00fcr Vorf\u00e4lligkeits- und Kreditrisiko. Die Richtung ist damit mechanisch; die Gr\u00f6\u00dfe schwankt mit dem Aufschlag und ist deshalb die eigentliche Unbekannte dieser Kante.", "source": "Freddie Mac PMMS; Fed Notes zum Primary-Secondary-Spread", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "bond_vol", "dst": "households", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Der Aufschlag selbst h\u00e4ngt an der Zinsunruhe: Weil ein Hypothekenschuldner jederzeit vorzeitig zur\u00fcckzahlen darf, ist eine MBS-Position eine verkaufte Option. Steigt die Anleihevolatilit\u00e4t, wird diese Option teurer, und der Aufschlag weitet sich \u2014 2022/23 auf rund das Doppelte des langj\u00e4hrigen Abstands. Derselbe Renditestand kostet den Haushalt dann mehr.", "source": "NY Fed Liberty Street Economics zum Primary-Secondary-Spread; Urban Institute Housing Finance Chartbook", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "us_fiscal", "dst": "reserve_status", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Fiskaldominanz n\u00e4hrt Zweifel an der Verbindlichkeit als Wertaufbewahrung; Zentralbanken diversifizieren in Gold.", "source": "IMF COFER; World Gold Council, Zentralbankk\u00e4ufe", "status": "gespannt" } ], "n_nodes_hot": 8, "n_edges_tense": 5, "n_unobserved": 1, "failures": [], "method": "Monitore: Monatsmittel, deklarierte Transformationsrolle, expandierendes Perzentil ohne Look-ahead (Burn-in 120 Monate). Knoten mit S\u00e4ulen-Indikator zeigen dessen Vollhistorien-Druckwert. Kantenstatus ist deskriptiv: \u201egespannt\u201c hei\u00dft, beide Enden stehen \u00fcber dem oberen Quartil ihrer Historie \u2014 nicht, dass \u00dcbertragung stattfindet." }, "outcomes": { "note": "Die Stufen sind deklarierte Definitionen mit beobachtbarem Eintrittsmarker, keine Prognosen. Signale verweisen auf gemessene Ebenen dieses Monitors; der Evidenzgrad bewertet den Forschungsstand zur Frage, ob die Messung f\u00fcr die Stufe spricht \u2014 nicht ihre St\u00e4rke. Keine Stufe erh\u00e4lt eine Wahrscheinlichkeit: F\u00fcr seltene, pfadabh\u00e4ngige Ereignisse ist jede aus diesen Daten gerechnete Eintrittszahl eine Scheinzahl. Kein Wert dieser Ebene flie\u00dft in eine Kopfzahl ein.", "contributes_to_headline": false, "grades": { "A": "Direkte Messung des definierten Zustands selbst.", "B": "In der historischen und empirischen Forschung als Vorl\u00e4ufer dokumentiert.", "C": "Plausibler, literaturgest\u00fctzter Zusammenhang, aber schwach identifiziert.", "D": "Theoretisch begr\u00fcndet, empirisch nicht quantifiziert." }, "monitors": { "vdem_libdem": { "label": "Liberale Demokratie (V-Dem, USA)", "pillar": "ordnung", "weight": 0.0, "unit": "Index 0\u20131", "danger": "low", "decimals": 3, "raw": 0.571, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "start": "1789-12-31", "n": 237, "percentile": 74.7, "pressure": 25.3, "zscore": -0.56, "tau": 0.87, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "1965-12-31", "change_10y": -0.277, "change_30y": -0.237, "note": "Der direkte Messwert f\u00fcr O1 und O2: Expertenkodierter Index aus Wahlintegrit\u00e4t, Gewaltenteilung, B\u00fcrgerrechten und Justizunabh\u00e4ngigkeit \u2014 j\u00e4hrlich seit 1789. Bewertet wie die S\u00e4ulen (Vollhistorien-Perzentil, niedrig = gef\u00e4hrlich); die aussagekr\u00e4ftigste Einzelzahl ist hier die 10-Jahres-Ver\u00e4nderung, weil Erosion ein Tempo-Ph\u00e4nomen ist. US-zentriert wie der Gesamtmonitor.", "source": "V-Dem Institute (v15) \u00fcber Our World in Data, keylos", "spark": [ [ "1789-12-31", 0.284 ], [ "1790-12-31", 0.283 ], [ "1792-12-31", 0.285 ], [ "1794-12-31", 0.286 ], [ "1796-12-31", 0.286 ], [ "1798-12-31", 0.278 ], [ "1800-12-31", 0.282 ], [ "1802-12-31", 0.29 ], [ "1804-12-31", 0.287 ], [ "1806-12-31", 0.286 ], [ "1808-12-31", 0.286 ], [ "1810-12-31", 0.286 ], [ "1812-12-31", 0.286 ], [ "1814-12-31", 0.288 ], [ "1816-12-31", 0.288 ], [ "1818-12-31", 0.289 ], [ "1820-12-31", 0.286 ], [ "1822-12-31", 0.283 ], [ "1824-12-31", 0.283 ], [ "1826-12-31", 0.283 ], [ "1828-12-31", 0.297 ], [ "1830-12-31", 0.3 ], [ "1832-12-31", 0.302 ], [ "1834-12-31", 0.314 ], [ "1836-12-31", 0.316 ], [ "1838-12-31", 0.313 ], [ "1840-12-31", 0.306 ], [ "1842-12-31", 0.299 ], [ "1844-12-31", 0.299 ], [ "1846-12-31", 0.297 ], [ "1848-12-31", 0.294 ], [ "1850-12-31", 0.293 ], [ "1852-12-31", 0.294 ], [ "1854-12-31", 0.294 ], [ "1856-12-31", 0.293 ], [ "1858-12-31", 0.293 ], [ "1860-12-31", 0.296 ], [ "1862-12-31", 0.3 ], [ "1864-12-31", 0.301 ], [ "1866-12-31", 0.32 ], [ "1868-12-31", 0.32 ], [ "1869-12-31", 0.32 ], [ "1871-12-31", 0.319 ], [ "1873-12-31", 0.318 ], [ "1875-12-31", 0.318 ], [ "1877-12-31", 0.314 ], [ "1879-12-31", 0.318 ], [ "1881-12-31", 0.318 ], [ "1883-12-31", 0.317 ], [ "1885-12-31", 0.315 ], [ "1887-12-31", 0.316 ], [ "1889-12-31", 0.312 ], [ "1891-12-31", 0.316 ], [ "1893-12-31", 0.316 ], [ "1895-12-31", 0.339 ], [ "1897-12-31", 0.363 ], [ "1899-12-31", 0.367 ], [ "1901-12-31", 0.367 ], [ "1903-12-31", 0.367 ], [ "1905-12-31", 0.366 ], [ "1907-12-31", 0.367 ], [ "1909-12-31", 0.366 ], [ "1911-12-31", 0.374 ], [ "1913-12-31", 0.374 ], [ "1915-12-31", 0.372 ], [ "1917-12-31", 0.359 ], [ "1919-12-31", 0.366 ], [ "1921-12-31", 0.428 ], [ "1923-12-31", 0.443 ], [ "1925-12-31", 0.444 ], [ "1927-12-31", 0.446 ], [ "1929-12-31", 0.445 ], [ "1931-12-31", 0.458 ], [ "1933-12-31", 0.463 ], [ "1935-12-31", 0.47 ], [ "1937-12-31", 0.47 ], [ "1939-12-31", 0.462 ], [ "1941-12-31", 0.465 ], [ "1943-12-31", 0.456 ], [ "1945-12-31", 0.468 ], [ "1947-12-31", 0.517 ], [ "1948-12-31", 0.51 ], [ "1950-12-31", 0.502 ], [ "1952-12-31", 0.522 ], [ "1954-12-31", 0.516 ], [ "1956-12-31", 0.517 ], [ "1958-12-31", 0.527 ], [ "1960-12-31", 0.544 ], [ "1962-12-31", 0.56 ], [ "1964-12-31", 0.572 ], [ "1966-12-31", 0.594 ], [ "1968-12-31", 0.602 ], [ "1970-12-31", 0.639 ], [ "1972-12-31", 0.659 ], [ "1974-12-31", 0.696 ], [ "1976-12-31", 0.726 ], [ "1978-12-31", 0.768 ], [ "1980-12-31", 0.778 ], [ "1982-12-31", 0.791 ], [ "1984-12-31", 0.794 ], [ "1986-12-31", 0.792 ], [ "1988-12-31", 0.797 ], [ "1990-12-31", 0.8 ], [ "1992-12-31", 0.809 ], [ "1994-12-31", 0.806 ], [ "1996-12-31", 0.808 ], [ "1998-12-31", 0.81 ], [ "2000-12-31", 0.808 ], [ "2002-12-31", 0.769 ], [ "2004-12-31", 0.799 ], [ "2006-12-31", 0.801 ], [ "2008-12-31", 0.845 ], [ "2010-12-31", 0.848 ], [ "2012-12-31", 0.842 ], [ "2014-12-31", 0.848 ], [ "2016-12-31", 0.83 ], [ "2018-12-31", 0.739 ], [ "2020-12-31", 0.734 ], [ "2022-12-31", 0.769 ], [ "2024-12-31", 0.751 ], [ "2025-12-31", 0.571 ] ], "key": "vdem_libdem" } }, "stages": [ { "key": "O1", "label": "Demokratieerosion", "definition": "Die demokratische Ordnung besteht formal weiter, wird aber ausgeh\u00f6hlt: Wahlrecht, Justiz, Presse und Verwaltung werden parteiisch umgebaut, die Opposition kann aber noch gewinnen.", "marker": "Messbarer R\u00fcckgang der Demokratie-Indizes bei weiterhin m\u00f6glichem Machtwechsel \u2014 Regierungswechsel durch Wahlen bleiben realistisch und werden akzeptiert.", "reversibility": "An der Urne umkehrbar; historisch geschieht das auch (Polen 2023, Brasilien 2022). Jedes Jahr im Zustand O1 senkt aber die Chance, weil die Spielregeln selbst das Umk\u00e4mpfte sind.", "precaution": "W\u00e4hlen, Organisierung, unabh\u00e4ngige \u00d6ffentlichkeit, Rechtsstaat verteidigen \u2014 die Instrumente der Ordnung selbst funktionieren noch.", "blind": [ "Presse- und Justizunabh\u00e4ngigkeit werden nicht als eigene Live-Reihen gef\u00fchrt \u2014 sie stecken nur aggregiert im V-Dem-Index.", "Der Monitor sieht nur die USA; Erosion in Europa oder anderswo ist f\u00fcr ihn unsichtbar." ], "signals": [ { "kind": "monitor", "key": "vdem_libdem", "grade": "A", "why": "Der Index misst exakt das Definierte: die Qualit\u00e4t der liberalen Demokratie, j\u00e4hrlich, expertenkodiert.", "source": "V-Dem Democracy Report", "status": "ruhig", "display": "0.571 Index 0\u20131 \u00b7 Druck 25 \u00b7 10J -0.277", "value": 25.3, "label": "Liberale Demokratie (V-Dem, USA)" }, { "kind": "psi", "key": "psi", "grade": "B", "why": "Massenverelendung, Eliten\u00fcberproduktion und Fiskalstress sind die dokumentierten Vorl\u00e4ufer politischer Instabilit\u00e4t \u2014 der strukturelle N\u00e4hrboden der Erosion.", "source": "Turchin (2016); Goldstone (1991)", "status": "erhoeht", "display": "PSI 42.4 (HOCH)", "value": 42.4, "label": "Turchin-PSI" }, { "kind": "valve", "key": "legitimation", "grade": "B", "why": "Erosion beginnt mit Vertrauensverlust: Wo Institutionen als illegitim gelten, findet der Umbau Zustimmung.", "source": "Levitsky/Ziblatt, How Democracies Die (2018)", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Restweg 10 %", "value": 10.3, "label": "Legitimations-Ventil" }, { "kind": "indicator", "key": "policy_uncertainty", "grade": "C", "why": "Anhaltend hohe Politikunsicherheit zeigt umk\u00e4mpfte Spielregeln an \u2014 ein Symptom, kein Treiber.", "source": "Baker/Bloom/Davis (2016)", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Druck 99", "value": 98.6, "label": "Wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit" } ], "n_signals": 4, "n_signals_hot": 3 }, { "key": "O2", "label": "Autorit\u00e4re Konsolidierung", "collapse_threshold": true, "threshold_note": "Deklarierte Kollaps-Schwelle dieses Monitors: Ab hier ist die Ordnung, unter der wir leben wollen, verloren \u2014 unabh\u00e4ngig davon, ob Wirtschaft und Infrastruktur weiter funktionieren. Eine gesetzte Wertentscheidung, keine Messung; sie steht hier, damit \u201eKollaps\u201c in diesem Monitor ein definiertes Wort ist.", "definition": "Der Machtwechsel ist faktisch abgeschafft: Wahlen finden statt, k\u00f6nnen aber nicht mehr verloren werden. Justiz, Sicherheitsapparat und Leitmedien sind gleichgeschaltet, Opposition wird kriminalisiert.", "marker": "Absturz der Demokratie-Indizes unter das Niveau elektoraler Demokratie; Oppositionelle vor Gericht oder im Exil; Machtwechsel trotz Mehrheitsstimmung bleibt aus.", "reversibility": "Nicht mehr an der Urne, aber historisch endlich: Spanien, Portugal, S\u00fcdkorea, Chile, Osteuropa \u2014 Jahrzehnte, nicht Ewigkeit. F\u00fcr den Einzelnen, der es durchlebt, ist das ein kalter Trost; f\u00fcr Verfolgte ist die Ordnung untergegangen, egal was danach kommt.", "precaution": "Wirkt nur, was VOR dem \u00dcbergang aufgebaut wurde: Netzwerke, Exit-Optionen (zweiter Pass, Konten und Beziehungen im Ausland), Organisierung, \u00d6ffentlichkeit. Vorr\u00e4te und Land helfen gegen diese Stufe nicht.", "blind": [ "Den Kipp-Moment selbst kann keine Jahresreihe zeigen \u2014 V-Dem l\u00e4uft der Lage um ein bis zwei Jahre hinterher.", "Loyalit\u00e4t von Milit\u00e4r und Sicherheitsapparat \u2014 historisch die entscheidende Gr\u00f6\u00dfe \u2014 ist nicht messbar." ], "signals": [ { "kind": "monitor", "key": "vdem_libdem", "grade": "A", "why": "Dieselbe Reihe wie O1, anderes Segment: Konsolidierung zeigt sich als Durchbruch nach unten, nicht als Abbr\u00f6ckeln.", "source": "V-Dem, Regimes-of-the-World-Klassifikation", "status": "ruhig", "display": "0.571 Index 0\u20131 \u00b7 Druck 25 \u00b7 10J -0.277", "value": 25.3, "label": "Liberale Demokratie (V-Dem, USA)" }, { "kind": "psi", "key": "psi", "grade": "B", "why": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion liefert die Gegeneliten, die den autorit\u00e4ren Umbau tragen und legitimieren.", "source": "Turchin, Ages of Discord (2016)", "status": "erhoeht", "display": "PSI 42.4 (HOCH)", "value": 42.4, "label": "Turchin-PSI" }, { "kind": "indicator", "key": "wealth_top1", "grade": "C", "why": "Extreme Verm\u00f6genskonzentration beg\u00fcnstigt Oligarchisierung \u2014 wenige Akteure k\u00f6nnen Medien, Parteien und Kampagnen kaufen.", "source": "Winters, Oligarchy (2011)", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Druck 100", "value": 100.0, "label": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil des obersten Prozents" }, { "kind": "valve", "key": "legitimation", "grade": "B", "why": "Der Umschlag gelingt dort, wo die alte Ordnung ihre Legitimit\u00e4t bereits verloren hat.", "source": "Levitsky/Ziblatt (2018)", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Restweg 10 %", "value": 10.3, "label": "Legitimations-Ventil" } ], "n_signals": 4, "n_signals_hot": 3 }, { "key": "O3", "label": "Staatszerfall / Gewaltordnung", "definition": "Das staatliche Gewaltmonopol zerbricht: Kein Regime mehr \u2014 weder demokratisch noch autorit\u00e4r \u2014, sondern konkurrierende Gewaltakteure, Warlordismus, B\u00fcrgerkrieg oder Sezession.", "marker": "Territorien au\u00dferhalb staatlicher Kontrolle, bewaffnete Konfliktereignisse im Land, Zerfall von Steuererhebung und Grundversorgung.", "reversibility": "Schwer und langsam; Staatszerfall dauert im Median Jahrzehnte und endet oft in O2, nicht in Demokratie. Die Forschung kennt kaum F\u00e4lle schneller R\u00fcckkehr.", "precaution": "Ab hier beginnt physische Vorsorge zu wirken (Versorgung, Gemeinschaft, Mobilit\u00e4t) \u2014 zusammen mit dem, was O2-Vorsorge aufgebaut hat: Wer gehen muss, braucht ein Wohin.", "blind": [ "Keine Konfliktereignis-Reihe: ACLED erfordert Registrierung, ein keyloser Endpunkt existiert nicht.", "Der Pfad O2\u2192O3 (Repression erzeugt Widerstand) und der Pfad O4-Vorstufen\u2192O3 (Knappheit erzeugt Gewalt) sind hier nicht unterscheidbar \u2014 beide enden in denselben Signalen." ], "signals": [ { "kind": "indicator", "key": "interest_burden", "grade": "B", "why": "Die Fiskalkrise des Staates ist in der historischen Forschung DIE wiederkehrende Vorbedingung von Staatszusammenbr\u00fcchen \u2014 ein Staat, der seine Ausgaben nicht mehr finanziert, verliert zuerst Leistungen, dann Loyalit\u00e4t.", "source": "Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion (1991)", "status": "erhoeht", "display": "Druck 77", "value": 76.7, "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen" }, { "kind": "valve", "key": "fiskal", "grade": "B", "why": "Der fiskalische Restweg sagt, wie viel Krisenreaktion sich der Staat noch leisten kann, bevor K\u00fcrzungen die Legitimit\u00e4t treffen.", "source": "Goldstone (1991); CBO Budget Outlook", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Restweg 0 %", "value": 0.0, "label": "Fiskal-Ventil" }, { "kind": "indicator", "key": "food_price", "grade": "B", "why": "Nahrungspreisspitzen gehen Unruhen und Umst\u00fcrzen systematisch voraus \u2014 der am besten dokumentierte kurzfristige Ausl\u00f6ser.", "source": "Lagi/Bertrand/Bar-Yam (2011); Arabischer Fr\u00fchling", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Druck 98", "value": 97.5, "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex" }, { "kind": "indicator", "key": "living_planet", "grade": "C", "why": "\u00d6kosystemverlust \u2192 Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit \u2192 Migration, organisierte Kriminalit\u00e4t, Staatenkonkurrenz: der deklarierte Kaskadenpfad des britischen Sicherheits-Assessments.", "source": "HM Government/Defra, National security assessment: global biodiversity loss (Jan. 2026)", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Druck 98", "value": 98.1, "label": "Living Planet Index" } ], "n_signals": 4, "n_signals_hot": 4 }, { "key": "O4", "label": "Physischer Zivilisationskollaps", "definition": "Zusammenbruch der materiellen Lebensgrundlagen gro\u00dfr\u00e4umig und dauerhaft: Ern\u00e4hrungssystem, Energieversorgung und arbeitsteilige Wirtschaft tragen die Bev\u00f6lkerung nicht mehr.", "marker": "Kollaps mehrerer Kornkammer-Regionen, dauerhafte Versorgungsbr\u00fcche, gro\u00dfr\u00e4umige Abwanderung aus unbewohnbar werdenden Zonen.", "reversibility": "Auf menschlichen Zeitskalen keine: Gekippte Erdsystem-Komponenten (Eisschilde, AMOC, Regenwald) kennen keinen R\u00fcckweg. Deshalb geh\u00f6rt diese Stufe in eine eigene Kategorie, auch wenn sie die unwahrscheinlichste ist.", "precaution": "Die klassische Kollaps-Vorsorge \u2014 Vorr\u00e4te, Land, Autarkie \u2014 adressiert genau diese Stufe. Gegen O1 und O2 richtet sie nichts aus; wer alles auf sie setzt, hat die wahrscheinlicheren Stufen unbewaffnet betreten.", "blind": [ "Kipppunkt-N\u00e4he ist nicht direkt messbar \u2014 es gibt keine Live-Fern\u00fcberwachung von AMOC-Stabilit\u00e4t oder Eisschild-Dynamik mit keylosem Endpunkt.", "Das Timing ist prinzipiell nicht prognostizierbar; jede Jahreszahl mit Wahrscheinlichkeit w\u00e4re erfunden." ], "signals": [ { "kind": "pillar", "key": "planetar", "grade": "B", "why": "Sieben von neun planetaren Grenzen \u00fcberschritten; das britische Assessment stuft den PFAD Richtung \u00d6kosystemkollaps mit hoher Konfidenz ein \u2014 das TIMING ausdr\u00fccklich nur mit niedriger. Diese Trennung gilt auch hier.", "source": "PIK/Stockholm Resilience Centre (2025); HM Government/Defra (Jan. 2026)", "status": "erhoeht", "display": "S\u00e4ulendruck 87", "value": 87.3, "label": "Planetare Grenzen" }, { "kind": "indicator", "key": "co2", "grade": "B", "why": "Abstand zur deklarierten Grenze \u2014 die Stellgr\u00f6\u00dfe hinter den Kippelementen.", "source": "IPCC AR6; Armstrong McKay et al. (2022)", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Druck 98", "value": 97.6, "label": "CO\u2082-Konzentration" }, { "kind": "indicator", "key": "temp_anomaly", "grade": "B", "why": "Mehrere Kippelemente liegen in Reichweite des aktuellen Erw\u00e4rmungspfads.", "source": "Lenton et al., Global Tipping Points (2023)", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Druck 99", "value": 99.3, "label": "Globale Temperaturabweichung" }, { "kind": "indicator", "key": "food_price", "grade": "C", "why": "Der Transmissionsriemen, \u00fcber den Erdsystemstress die Gesellschaften zuerst erreicht.", "source": "FAO; Defra-Assessment, Kornkammer-Szenario", "status": "aktiv", "display": "Druck 98", "value": 97.5, "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex" } ], "n_signals": 4, "n_signals_hot": 4 } ], "failures": [], "method": "Stufen sind deklarierte Definitionen; die Signallage pro Stufe ist eine Z\u00e4hlung (\u201eX von Y Referenzsignalen \u00fcber dem oberen Quartil ihrer Historie\u201c), keine Wahrscheinlichkeit und kein Score. Der Demokratie-Monitor wird wie ein S\u00e4ulen-Indikator bewertet (Vollhistorien-Perzentil, niedrig = gef\u00e4hrlich), z\u00e4hlt aber in keiner S\u00e4ule. Ventile erscheinen als Restweg, der PSI mit seiner eigenen Skala \u2014 beide nur \u00fcbersetzt auf die gemeinsame Status-Lampe." }, "agrifood": { "note": "Knoten sind gemessen oder als unbeobachtet ausgewiesen; Kanten sind deklarierte Mechanismen aus Hydrologie, Agronomie und Agrar\u00f6konomie mit Evidenzgrad, keine aus den Daten gesch\u00e4tzten Wirkungen. Kein Wert dieser Ebene flie\u00dft in Druck, Resilienz oder Spannung ein. Es gibt bewusst keine Ern\u00e4hrungs-Kopfzahl: Bodenwasser in Deutschland, Reispreise in Asien und Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit im s\u00fcdlichen Afrika sind keine addierbaren Gr\u00f6\u00dfen.", "prestress": { "value": 90.2, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "status": "aktiv", "components": [ { "key": "wheat", "label": "Weizen, Weltmarktpreis", "raw": 229.0, "unit": "USD/t", "percentile": 76.39, "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "fertilizer_ppi", "label": "D\u00fcngemittelpreise (US-Erzeugerpreise)", "raw": 406.8, "unit": "Index 1982=100", "percentile": 98.04, "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "gas_eu", "label": "Erdgaspreis Europa (TTF)", "raw": 17.9, "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "percentile": 95.9, "as_of": "2026-07-01" } ], "start": "1996-12-01", "spark": [ [ "2006-08-01", 93.6 ], [ "2006-09-01", 93.3 ], [ "2006-10-01", 97.2 ], [ "2006-11-01", 96.9 ], [ "2006-12-01", 96.3 ], [ "2007-01-01", 94.3 ], [ "2007-02-01", 94.7 ], [ "2007-03-01", 94.4 ], [ "2007-04-01", 94.4 ], [ "2007-05-01", 94.2 ], [ "2007-06-01", 97.1 ], [ "2007-07-01", 97.0 ], [ "2007-08-01", 97.1 ], [ "2007-09-01", 97.2 ], [ "2007-10-01", 99.2 ], [ "2007-11-01", 99.1 ], [ "2007-12-01", 99.5 ], [ "2008-01-01", 99.8 ], [ "2008-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-03-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-04-01", 99.3 ], [ "2008-05-01", 98.8 ], [ "2008-06-01", 99.2 ], [ "2008-07-01", 98.8 ], [ "2008-08-01", 99.0 ], [ "2008-09-01", 98.0 ], [ "2008-10-01", 96.0 ], [ "2008-11-01", 95.5 ], [ "2008-12-01", 94.9 ], [ "2009-01-01", 96.8 ], [ "2009-02-01", 94.4 ], [ "2009-03-01", 93.5 ], [ "2009-04-01", 92.5 ], [ "2009-05-01", 94.0 ], [ "2009-06-01", 93.6 ], [ "2009-07-01", 86.8 ], [ "2009-08-01", 84.7 ], [ "2009-09-01", 79.3 ], [ "2009-10-01", 80.5 ], [ "2009-11-01", 84.3 ], [ "2009-12-01", 83.1 ], [ "2010-01-01", 82.5 ], [ "2010-02-01", 81.0 ], [ "2010-03-01", 80.0 ], [ "2010-04-01", 82.0 ], [ "2010-05-01", 81.6 ], [ "2010-06-01", 79.8 ], [ "2010-07-01", 89.9 ], [ "2010-08-01", 93.3 ], [ "2010-09-01", 93.5 ], [ "2010-10-01", 94.3 ], [ "2010-11-01", 95.3 ], [ "2010-12-01", 95.7 ], [ "2011-01-01", 96.0 ], [ "2011-02-01", 96.6 ], [ "2011-03-01", 95.1 ], [ "2011-04-01", 96.6 ], [ "2011-05-01", 96.2 ], [ "2011-06-01", 94.7 ], [ "2011-07-01", 95.3 ], [ "2011-08-01", 95.9 ], [ "2011-09-01", 95.1 ], [ "2011-10-01", 95.4 ], [ "2011-11-01", 95.0 ], [ "2011-12-01", 94.4 ], [ "2012-01-01", 94.9 ], [ "2012-02-01", 94.8 ], [ "2012-03-01", 94.3 ], [ "2012-04-01", 93.4 ], [ "2012-05-01", 93.4 ], [ "2012-06-01", 94.0 ], [ "2012-07-01", 95.5 ], [ "2012-08-01", 95.4 ], [ "2012-09-01", 95.3 ], [ "2012-10-01", 95.8 ], [ "2012-11-01", 95.8 ], [ "2012-12-01", 94.4 ], [ "2013-01-01", 92.8 ], [ "2013-02-01", 91.7 ], [ "2013-03-01", 91.8 ], [ "2013-04-01", 93.0 ], [ "2013-05-01", 93.0 ], [ "2013-06-01", 91.2 ], [ "2013-07-01", 89.5 ], [ "2013-08-01", 89.3 ], [ "2013-09-01", 89.0 ], [ "2013-10-01", 90.1 ], [ "2013-11-01", 89.0 ], [ "2013-12-01", 88.5 ], [ "2014-01-01", 86.1 ], [ "2014-02-01", 87.2 ], [ "2014-03-01", 89.6 ], [ "2014-04-01", 89.8 ], [ "2014-05-01", 90.1 ], [ "2014-06-01", 87.9 ], [ "2014-07-01", 84.8 ], [ "2014-08-01", 85.0 ], [ "2014-09-01", 84.0 ], [ "2014-10-01", 83.9 ], [ "2014-11-01", 83.5 ], [ "2014-12-01", 85.4 ], [ "2015-01-01", 82.7 ], [ "2015-02-01", 81.3 ], [ "2015-03-01", 81.4 ], [ "2015-04-01", 75.5 ], [ "2015-05-01", 74.8 ], [ "2015-06-01", 75.7 ], [ "2015-07-01", 74.6 ], [ "2015-08-01", 71.1 ], [ "2015-09-01", 68.5 ], [ "2015-10-01", 68.0 ], [ "2015-11-01", 65.8 ], [ "2015-12-01", 67.0 ], [ "2016-01-01", 66.8 ], [ "2016-02-01", 65.1 ], [ "2016-03-01", 64.7 ], [ "2016-04-01", 64.5 ], [ "2016-05-01", 63.0 ], [ "2016-06-01", 62.7 ], [ "2016-07-01", 57.4 ], [ "2016-08-01", 54.9 ], [ "2016-09-01", 53.4 ], [ "2016-10-01", 53.2 ], [ "2016-11-01", 54.8 ], [ "2016-12-01", 55.6 ], [ "2017-01-01", 60.9 ], [ "2017-02-01", 63.5 ], [ "2017-03-01", 62.0 ], [ "2017-04-01", 59.8 ], [ "2017-05-01", 62.7 ], [ "2017-06-01", 64.8 ], [ "2017-07-01", 69.6 ], [ "2017-08-01", 60.2 ], [ "2017-09-01", 60.4 ], [ "2017-10-01", 58.8 ], [ "2017-11-01", 62.0 ], [ "2017-12-01", 65.8 ], [ "2018-01-01", 67.2 ], [ "2018-02-01", 74.3 ], [ "2018-03-01", 77.8 ], [ "2018-04-01", 74.4 ], [ "2018-05-01", 75.6 ], [ "2018-06-01", 75.7 ], [ "2018-07-01", 76.8 ], [ "2018-08-01", 79.7 ], [ "2018-09-01", 80.7 ], [ "2018-10-01", 78.9 ], [ "2018-11-01", 76.9 ], [ "2018-12-01", 76.8 ], [ "2019-01-01", 74.7 ], [ "2019-02-01", 70.7 ], [ "2019-03-01", 66.7 ], [ "2019-04-01", 64.2 ], [ "2019-05-01", 63.2 ], [ "2019-06-01", 63.2 ], [ "2019-07-01", 60.6 ], [ "2019-08-01", 56.0 ], [ "2019-09-01", 53.6 ], [ "2019-10-01", 56.3 ], [ "2019-11-01", 61.7 ], [ "2019-12-01", 63.3 ], [ "2020-01-01", 64.4 ], [ "2020-02-01", 59.3 ], [ "2020-03-01", 58.2 ], [ "2020-04-01", 52.5 ], [ "2020-05-01", 49.9 ], [ "2020-06-01", 48.6 ], [ "2020-07-01", 48.6 ], [ "2020-08-01", 56.7 ], [ "2020-09-01", 69.9 ], [ "2020-10-01", 72.3 ], [ "2020-11-01", 73.3 ], [ "2020-12-01", 75.9 ], [ "2021-01-01", 80.3 ], [ "2021-02-01", 79.3 ], [ "2021-03-01", 79.1 ], [ "2021-04-01", 81.8 ], [ "2021-05-01", 89.9 ], [ "2021-06-01", 89.0 ], [ "2021-07-01", 93.9 ], [ "2021-08-01", 96.3 ], [ "2021-09-01", 96.3 ], [ "2021-10-01", 98.0 ], [ "2021-11-01", 99.0 ], [ "2021-12-01", 99.4 ], [ "2022-01-01", 99.3 ], [ "2022-02-01", 99.4 ], [ "2022-03-01", 99.8 ], [ "2022-04-01", 99.8 ], [ "2022-05-01", 99.5 ], [ "2022-06-01", 99.5 ], [ "2022-07-01", 98.6 ], [ "2022-08-01", 98.6 ], [ "2022-09-01", 98.9 ], [ "2022-10-01", 98.0 ], [ "2022-11-01", 98.2 ], [ "2022-12-01", 97.7 ], [ "2023-01-01", 96.4 ], [ "2023-02-01", 96.8 ], [ "2023-03-01", 94.4 ], [ "2023-04-01", 94.4 ], [ "2023-05-01", 88.7 ], [ "2023-06-01", 87.5 ], [ "2023-07-01", 85.8 ], [ "2023-08-01", 84.8 ], [ "2023-09-01", 85.4 ], [ "2023-10-01", 86.5 ], [ "2023-11-01", 86.6 ], [ "2023-12-01", 85.5 ], [ "2024-01-01", 82.2 ], [ "2024-02-01", 78.1 ], [ "2024-03-01", 79.3 ], [ "2024-04-01", 80.3 ], [ "2024-05-01", 82.4 ], [ "2024-06-01", 81.4 ], [ "2024-07-01", 77.5 ], [ "2024-08-01", 79.6 ], [ "2024-09-01", 81.2 ], [ "2024-10-01", 84.0 ], [ "2024-11-01", 82.7 ], [ "2024-12-01", 83.5 ], [ "2025-01-01", 84.3 ], [ "2025-02-01", 84.5 ], [ "2025-03-01", 81.9 ], [ "2025-04-01", 79.1 ], [ "2025-05-01", 83.3 ], [ "2025-06-01", 79.7 ], [ "2025-07-01", 76.7 ], [ "2025-08-01", 73.8 ], [ "2025-09-01", 72.3 ], [ "2025-10-01", 72.4 ], [ "2025-11-01", 74.6 ], [ "2025-12-01", 72.5 ], [ "2026-01-01", 78.4 ], [ "2026-02-01", 78.2 ], [ "2026-03-01", 86.3 ], [ "2026-04-01", 87.1 ], [ "2026-05-01", 89.8 ], [ "2026-06-01", 86.7 ], [ "2026-07-01", 90.2 ] ], "conditional": { "rows": [ { "lead": 0, "n": 356, "all": -0.36, "high": -0.41, "low": -0.31, "n_high": 178, "n_low": 178 }, { "lead": 4, "n": 354, "all": -0.32, "high": -0.36, "low": -0.32, "n_high": 176, "n_low": 178 }, { "lead": 8, "n": 350, "all": -0.19, "high": -0.14, "low": -0.33, "n_high": 173, "n_low": 177 }, { "lead": 12, "n": 346, "all": 0.04, "high": 0.14, "low": -0.19, "n_high": 173, "n_low": 173 }, { "lead": 16, "n": 342, "all": 0.22, "high": 0.4, "low": -0.09, "n_high": 173, "n_low": 169 } ], "split": 80.8, "x": "ONI (Dreimonatsmittel Ni\u00f1o 3.4)", "y": "FAO-Getreideindex, log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "window": "1996-12 bis 2026-07" }, "episodes": [ { "date": "1958-01-01", "oni": 1.69, "prestress": null, "fao_after": null, "wheat_after": null, "fao_peak": null, "wheat_peak": null, "open": false }, { "date": "1965-11-01", "oni": 1.82, "prestress": null, "fao_after": null, "wheat_after": null, "fao_peak": null, "wheat_peak": null, "open": false }, { "date": "1972-11-01", "oni": 1.84, "prestress": null, "fao_after": null, "wheat_after": null, "fao_peak": null, "wheat_peak": null, "open": false }, { "date": "1983-01-01", "oni": 2.14, "prestress": null, "fao_after": null, "wheat_after": null, "fao_peak": null, "wheat_peak": null, "open": false }, { "date": "1992-01-01", "oni": 1.54, "prestress": null, "fao_after": -7.5, "wheat_after": -8.4, "fao_peak": 4.1, "wheat_peak": 4.2, "open": false }, { "date": "1997-12-01", "oni": 2.37, "prestress": 46.2, "fao_after": -10.4, "wheat_after": -13.8, "fao_peak": -0.3, "wheat_peak": -1.1, "open": false }, { "date": "2009-12-01", "oni": 1.5, "prestress": 83.1, "fao_after": 41.1, "wheat_after": 60.4, "fao_peak": 53.2, "wheat_peak": 85.6, "open": false }, { "date": "2015-12-01", "oni": 2.59, "prestress": 67.0, "fao_after": -3.7, "wheat_after": -25.0, "fao_peak": 5.3, "wheat_peak": 0.4, "open": false }, { "date": "2023-12-01", "oni": 1.99, "prestress": 85.5, "fao_after": -9.3, "wheat_after": -19.1, "fao_peak": -2.4, "wheat_peak": -1.0, "open": false }, { "date": "2026-08-01", "oni": 2.16, "prestress": 90.2, "fao_after": null, "wheat_after": null, "fao_peak": null, "wheat_peak": null, "open": true, "current": true } ], "response_months": 12, "peak_months": 18, "n_comparable": 4, "method": "Vorspannung = Mittel der expandierenden NIVEAU-Perzentile von Weizen, D\u00fcnger und Gas (Burn-in 60 Monate, kein Look-ahead). Sie ersetzt die unbeobachtete Stocks-to-Use-Quote als Ma\u00df daf\u00fcr, wie angespannt das System ist, auf das ein Klimaschock trifft. Die konditionale Kopplung teilt die Stichprobe am Median der Vorspannung und korreliert den ONI mit der Jahresver\u00e4nderung des FAO-Getreideindex bei 0 bis 16 Monaten Vorlauf. Die Episodentabelle nennt jeden ONI-Gipfel ab +1,5 \u00b0C mit seiner Vorspannung, der Preisver\u00e4nderung zw\u00f6lf Monate danach (fester Horizont) und dem H\u00f6chststand innerhalb von 18 Monaten (ausdr\u00fccklich ein Maximum). Offene Fenster bleiben leer statt angerechnet.", "caveat": "Diagnose, kein Signal. Der Medianschnitt wird am vollen Zeitraum gesch\u00e4tzt und ist damit NICHT look-ahead-frei \u2014 anders als jedes Perzentil sonst in diesem Monitor. Die Teilstichproben enthalten nur wenige starke Ereignisse. Die Vorspannung sagt nicht, dass Preise steigen, sondern dass die Kante Klima \u2192 Preis \u00fcberhaupt leitf\u00e4hig ist. Sie flie\u00dft in keine Kopfzahl ein und bekommt kein Druckgewicht \u2014 gerade weil der ONI gleichzeitig NEGATIV mit den Preisen korreliert, w\u00e4re ein Gewicht Scheinpr\u00e4zision." }, "contributes_to_headline": false, "grades": { "A": "Physikalisch, bilanziell oder definitorisch zwingend (Wasserbilanz, Indexkonstruktion, Kostenanteil).", "B": "In Ertrags-, Preis- oder D\u00fcrreepisoden empirisch dokumentiert (Attributionsstudien, 2007/08, 2015/16, 2018, 2022).", "C": "Plausibel und literaturgest\u00fctzt, aber episodisch d\u00fcnn belegt.", "D": "Theoretisch begr\u00fcndet, empirisch nicht quantifiziert." }, "monitors": { "de_precip_12m": { "key": "de_precip_12m", "label": "Niederschlag Deutschland, 12-Monats-Summe", "unit": "mm", "decimals": 0, "note": "Gebietsmittel aller Bundesl\u00e4nder. Die 12-Monats-Summe nimmt den Jahresgang heraus und stellt das laufende Jahr gegen 145 Jahre Messgeschichte \u2014 wenig ist hier die Gefahr. Sie misst den Zulauf, nicht den Speicher.", "source": "DWD Open Data, Gebietsmittel Niederschlag, monatlich ab 1881", "danger": "low", "mode": "track", "start": "1881-12-01", "raw": 599.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 95.86, "status": "aktiv", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.21, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 0.02, "run": 1, "change": 15.49, "move_pct": 32.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1891-11-01", 82.5 ], [ "1892-12-01", 91.73 ], [ "1894-01-01", 84.93 ], [ "1895-02-01", 12.58 ], [ "1896-03-01", 26.16 ], [ "1897-04-01", 15.14 ], [ "1898-05-01", 15.66 ], [ "1899-06-01", 80.09 ], [ "1900-07-01", 43.3 ], [ "1901-08-01", 75.95 ], [ "1902-09-01", 17.6 ], [ "1903-10-01", 44.11 ], [ "1904-11-01", 98.91 ], [ "1905-12-01", 9.69 ], [ "1907-01-01", 28.81 ], [ "1908-02-01", 78.73 ], [ "1909-03-01", 88.41 ], [ "1910-04-01", 19.65 ], [ "1911-05-01", 25.14 ], [ "1912-06-01", 86.38 ], [ "1913-07-01", 13.68 ], [ "1914-08-01", 4.33 ], [ "1915-09-01", 51.48 ], [ "1916-10-01", 3.34 ], [ "1917-11-01", 54.17 ], [ "1918-12-01", 46.52 ], [ "1920-01-01", 24.89 ], [ "1921-02-01", 85.56 ], [ "1922-03-01", 93.6 ], [ "1923-04-01", 11.87 ], [ "1924-05-01", 34.31 ], [ "1925-06-01", 47.61 ], [ "1926-07-01", 0.0 ], [ "1927-08-01", 1.82 ], [ "1928-09-01", 90.75 ], [ "1929-10-01", 92.87 ], [ "1930-11-01", 2.55 ], [ "1931-12-01", 13.14 ], [ "1933-01-01", 72.96 ], [ "1934-02-01", 88.04 ], [ "1935-03-01", 79.53 ], [ "1936-04-01", 37.06 ], [ "1937-05-01", 4.05 ], [ "1938-06-01", 86.45 ], [ "1939-07-01", 25.72 ], [ "1940-08-01", 3.4 ], [ "1941-09-01", 20.19 ], [ "1942-10-01", 78.93 ], [ "1943-11-01", 93.95 ], [ "1944-12-01", 12.42 ], [ "1946-01-01", 42.21 ], [ "1947-02-01", 85.82 ], [ "1948-03-01", 48.37 ], [ "1949-04-01", 80.72 ], [ "1950-05-01", 74.21 ], [ "1951-06-01", 11.5 ], [ "1952-07-01", 81.37 ], [ "1953-08-01", 16.14 ], [ "1954-09-01", 58.47 ], [ "1955-10-01", 27.85 ], [ "1956-11-01", 6.0 ], [ "1957-12-01", 38.44 ], [ "1959-01-01", 10.26 ], [ "1960-02-01", 96.91 ], [ "1961-03-01", 6.3 ], [ "1962-04-01", 12.12 ], [ "1963-05-01", 97.85 ], [ "1964-06-01", 84.36 ], [ "1965-07-01", 1.2 ], [ "1966-08-01", 0.49 ], [ "1967-09-01", 6.7 ], [ "1968-10-01", 5.75 ], [ "1969-11-01", 65.15 ], [ "1970-12-01", 5.05 ], [ "1972-01-01", 96.67 ], [ "1973-02-01", 68.22 ], [ "1974-03-01", 60.65 ], [ "1975-04-01", 4.64 ], [ "1976-05-01", 85.89 ], [ "1977-06-01", 67.57 ], [ "1978-07-01", 36.55 ], [ "1979-08-01", 28.56 ], [ "1980-09-01", 13.49 ], [ "1981-10-01", 2.84 ], [ "1982-11-01", 66.09 ], [ "1983-12-01", 41.96 ], [ "1985-01-01", 40.87 ], [ "1986-02-01", 47.8 ], [ "1987-03-01", 15.66 ], [ "1988-04-01", 0.78 ], [ "1989-05-01", 61.24 ], [ "1990-06-01", 50.19 ], [ "1991-07-01", 63.45 ], [ "1992-08-01", 55.08 ], [ "1993-09-01", 12.67 ], [ "1994-10-01", 2.88 ], [ "1995-11-01", 6.87 ], [ "1996-12-01", 80.45 ], [ "1998-01-01", 49.93 ], [ "1999-02-01", 0.78 ], [ "2000-03-01", 12.39 ], [ "2001-04-01", 20.38 ], [ "2002-05-01", 3.18 ], [ "2003-06-01", 15.28 ], [ "2004-07-01", 60.53 ], [ "2005-08-01", 36.9 ], [ "2006-09-01", 59.55 ], [ "2007-10-01", 6.35 ], [ "2008-11-01", 41.67 ], [ "2009-12-01", 34.29 ], [ "2011-01-01", 12.45 ], [ "2012-02-01", 52.53 ], [ "2013-03-01", 51.21 ], [ "2014-04-01", 68.16 ], [ "2015-05-01", 57.37 ], [ "2016-06-01", 29.29 ], [ "2017-07-01", 78.93 ], [ "2018-08-01", 79.77 ], [ "2019-09-01", 81.26 ], [ "2020-10-01", 60.65 ], [ "2021-11-01", 38.69 ], [ "2022-12-01", 85.12 ], [ "2024-01-01", 1.99 ], [ "2025-02-01", 21.23 ], [ "2026-03-01", 83.95 ], [ "2026-09-01", 95.86 ] ] }, "de_precip_36m": { "key": "de_precip_36m", "label": "Niederschlag Deutschland, 36-Monats-Summe", "unit": "mm", "decimals": 0, "note": "Proxy f\u00fcr das, was in Tiefenboden und Grundwasser ankommt: Grundwasserneubildung reagiert auf mehrj\u00e4hrige Bilanzen, nicht auf einzelne Regentage. Die eigentliche Speichermessung (GRACE-FO, Landesmessstellen) hat keinen keylosen Endpunkt.", "source": "DWD Open Data, Gebietsmittel Niederschlag, monatlich ab 1881", "danger": "low", "mode": "track", "start": "1883-12-01", "raw": 2344.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 40.72, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.79, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 16.68, "run": 0, "change": 32.15, "move_pct": 74.6, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1893-11-01", 95.83 ], [ "1894-12-01", 70.68 ], [ "1896-01-01", 27.4 ], [ "1897-02-01", 5.03 ], [ "1898-03-01", 11.05 ], [ "1899-04-01", 24.32 ], [ "1900-05-01", 44.95 ], [ "1901-06-01", 75.36 ], [ "1902-07-01", 42.41 ], [ "1903-08-01", 50.21 ], [ "1904-09-01", 70.8 ], [ "1905-10-01", 55.89 ], [ "1906-11-01", 60.14 ], [ "1907-12-01", 22.49 ], [ "1909-01-01", 89.07 ], [ "1910-02-01", 68.25 ], [ "1911-03-01", 28.96 ], [ "1912-04-01", 62.17 ], [ "1913-05-01", 51.98 ], [ "1914-06-01", 24.52 ], [ "1915-07-01", 3.42 ], [ "1916-08-01", 0.25 ], [ "1917-09-01", 28.08 ], [ "1918-10-01", 21.48 ], [ "1919-11-01", 80.56 ], [ "1920-12-01", 73.48 ], [ "1922-01-01", 99.13 ], [ "1923-02-01", 76.01 ], [ "1924-03-01", 48.14 ], [ "1925-04-01", 5.23 ], [ "1926-05-01", 10.2 ], [ "1927-06-01", 0.19 ], [ "1928-07-01", 0.56 ], [ "1929-08-01", 51.18 ], [ "1930-09-01", 94.66 ], [ "1931-10-01", 17.39 ], [ "1932-11-01", 4.25 ], [ "1933-12-01", 50.58 ], [ "1935-01-01", 99.19 ], [ "1936-02-01", 77.51 ], [ "1937-03-01", 17.66 ], [ "1938-04-01", 22.97 ], [ "1939-05-01", 19.22 ], [ "1940-06-01", 30.04 ], [ "1941-07-01", 0.72 ], [ "1942-08-01", 4.68 ], [ "1943-09-01", 49.03 ], [ "1944-10-01", 95.9 ], [ "1945-11-01", 57.66 ], [ "1946-12-01", 18.1 ], [ "1948-01-01", 38.31 ], [ "1949-02-01", 88.12 ], [ "1950-03-01", 87.31 ], [ "1951-04-01", 57.6 ], [ "1952-05-01", 47.2 ], [ "1953-06-01", 22.16 ], [ "1954-07-01", 76.3 ], [ "1955-08-01", 17.89 ], [ "1956-09-01", 16.36 ], [ "1957-10-01", 8.91 ], [ "1958-11-01", 3.33 ], [ "1959-12-01", 62.87 ], [ "1961-01-01", 45.57 ], [ "1962-02-01", 31.42 ], [ "1963-03-01", 23.21 ], [ "1964-04-01", 85.18 ], [ "1965-05-01", 96.52 ], [ "1966-06-01", 10.9 ], [ "1967-07-01", 0.0 ], [ "1968-08-01", 1.18 ], [ "1969-09-01", 6.02 ], [ "1970-10-01", 8.53 ], [ "1971-11-01", 57.95 ], [ "1972-12-01", 73.81 ], [ "1974-01-01", 99.08 ], [ "1975-02-01", 39.73 ], [ "1976-03-01", 39.53 ], [ "1977-04-01", 53.52 ], [ "1978-05-01", 86.6 ], [ "1979-06-01", 29.38 ], [ "1980-07-01", 7.59 ], [ "1981-08-01", 4.86 ], [ "1982-09-01", 5.56 ], [ "1983-10-01", 11.26 ], [ "1984-11-01", 27.81 ], [ "1985-12-01", 33.47 ], [ "1987-01-01", 23.99 ], [ "1988-02-01", 4.96 ], [ "1989-03-01", 6.09 ], [ "1990-04-01", 19.97 ], [ "1991-05-01", 74.73 ], [ "1992-06-01", 76.52 ], [ "1993-07-01", 47.11 ], [ "1994-08-01", 7.45 ], [ "1995-09-01", 0.45 ], [ "1996-10-01", 10.77 ], [ "1997-11-01", 50.22 ], [ "1998-12-01", 41.56 ], [ "2000-01-01", 10.55 ], [ "2001-02-01", 2.99 ], [ "2002-03-01", 4.23 ], [ "2003-04-01", 3.0 ], [ "2004-05-01", 12.86 ], [ "2005-06-01", 32.01 ], [ "2006-07-01", 52.85 ], [ "2007-08-01", 20.47 ], [ "2008-09-01", 17.89 ], [ "2009-10-01", 18.53 ], [ "2010-11-01", 26.12 ], [ "2011-12-01", 29.15 ], [ "2013-01-01", 33.81 ], [ "2014-02-01", 58.09 ], [ "2015-03-01", 52.16 ], [ "2016-04-01", 55.7 ], [ "2017-05-01", 77.47 ], [ "2018-06-01", 52.45 ], [ "2019-07-01", 94.9 ], [ "2020-08-01", 89.21 ], [ "2021-09-01", 62.39 ], [ "2022-10-01", 77.38 ], [ "2023-11-01", 35.71 ], [ "2024-12-01", 10.75 ], [ "2026-01-01", 18.93 ], [ "2026-09-01", 40.72 ] ] }, "de_soil_moisture": { "key": "de_soil_moisture", "label": "Bodenfeuchte 0\u201360 cm, Stationsmittel Deutschland", "unit": "% nFK", "decimals": 1, "note": "Modellierte Bodenfeuchte unter Gras (DWD-Modell AMBETI) in Prozent der nutzbaren Feldkapazit\u00e4t, gemittelt \u00fcber 18 Flachland- und Beckenstationen. Bewertet wird die Abweichung vom eigenen Monatsmittel, sonst w\u00e4re jeder August eine D\u00fcrre. Das ist die Bohrstock-Demo als Zahl: der Wurzelraum, nicht der Unterboden.", "source": "DWD Open Data, derived_germany/soil (BFGL_AG), monatlich ab 1991", "danger": "low", "mode": "track", "start": "1991-01-01", "raw": 50.5, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "tcode": "SEASONAL_ANOMALY", "tcode_label": "Abweichung vom eigenen Monatsmittel", "transformed": -28.68, "stress": 93.77, "status": "aktiv", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.48, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 17.15, "run": 0, "change": 26.73, "move_pct": 51.0, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2005-12-01", 65.0 ], [ "2006-02-01", 77.05 ], [ "2006-04-01", 23.39 ], [ "2006-06-01", 32.54 ], [ "2006-08-01", 86.72 ], [ "2006-10-01", 86.15 ], [ "2006-12-01", 83.33 ], [ "2007-02-01", 35.82 ], [ "2007-04-01", 89.71 ], [ "2007-06-01", 13.04 ], [ "2007-08-01", 0.0 ], [ "2007-10-01", 4.93 ], [ "2007-12-01", 27.08 ], [ "2008-02-01", 67.12 ], [ "2008-04-01", 18.24 ], [ "2008-06-01", 94.0 ], [ "2008-08-01", 80.92 ], [ "2008-10-01", 79.22 ], [ "2008-12-01", 69.87 ], [ "2009-02-01", 48.1 ], [ "2009-04-01", 78.75 ], [ "2009-06-01", 41.36 ], [ "2009-08-01", 40.24 ], [ "2009-10-01", 86.75 ], [ "2009-12-01", 19.05 ], [ "2010-02-01", 50.59 ], [ "2010-04-01", 74.42 ], [ "2010-06-01", 11.49 ], [ "2010-08-01", 56.82 ], [ "2010-10-01", 3.93 ], [ "2010-12-01", 18.33 ], [ "2011-02-01", 64.29 ], [ "2011-04-01", 89.13 ], [ "2011-06-01", 97.31 ], [ "2011-08-01", 14.36 ], [ "2011-10-01", 72.63 ], [ "2011-12-01", 75.52 ], [ "2012-02-01", 62.89 ], [ "2012-04-01", 82.65 ], [ "2012-06-01", 76.26 ], [ "2012-08-01", 54.5 ], [ "2012-10-01", 79.7 ], [ "2012-12-01", 50.98 ], [ "2013-02-01", 33.5 ], [ "2013-04-01", 39.42 ], [ "2013-06-01", 1.9 ], [ "2013-08-01", 90.57 ], [ "2013-10-01", 43.93 ], [ "2013-12-01", 38.43 ], [ "2014-02-01", 59.17 ], [ "2014-04-01", 89.09 ], [ "2014-06-01", 71.17 ], [ "2014-08-01", 3.12 ], [ "2014-10-01", 10.18 ], [ "2014-12-01", 39.91 ], [ "2015-02-01", 65.22 ], [ "2015-04-01", 68.53 ], [ "2015-06-01", 94.02 ], [ "2015-08-01", 96.19 ], [ "2015-10-01", 86.13 ], [ "2015-12-01", 71.67 ], [ "2016-02-01", 35.95 ], [ "2016-04-01", 28.28 ], [ "2016-06-01", 8.54 ], [ "2016-08-01", 51.61 ], [ "2016-10-01", 96.4 ], [ "2016-12-01", 84.13 ], [ "2017-02-01", 56.3 ], [ "2017-04-01", 70.31 ], [ "2017-06-01", 86.05 ], [ "2017-08-01", 3.85 ], [ "2017-10-01", 7.63 ], [ "2017-12-01", 20.45 ], [ "2018-02-01", 77.07 ], [ "2018-04-01", 57.09 ], [ "2018-06-01", 96.67 ], [ "2018-08-01", 99.63 ], [ "2018-10-01", 99.64 ], [ "2018-12-01", 97.1 ], [ "2019-02-01", 70.5 ], [ "2019-04-01", 84.64 ], [ "2019-06-01", 85.11 ], [ "2019-08-01", 94.72 ], [ "2019-10-01", 80.42 ], [ "2019-12-01", 72.22 ], [ "2020-02-01", 42.41 ], [ "2020-04-01", 89.38 ], [ "2020-06-01", 94.22 ], [ "2020-08-01", 95.61 ], [ "2020-10-01", 88.93 ], [ "2020-12-01", 85.67 ], [ "2021-02-01", 44.37 ], [ "2021-04-01", 57.24 ], [ "2021-06-01", 41.83 ], [ "2021-08-01", 2.27 ], [ "2021-10-01", 14.52 ], [ "2021-12-01", 27.56 ], [ "2022-02-01", 35.35 ], [ "2022-04-01", 57.59 ], [ "2022-06-01", 91.19 ], [ "2022-08-01", 98.44 ], [ "2022-10-01", 78.88 ], [ "2022-12-01", 75.0 ], [ "2023-02-01", 57.06 ], [ "2023-04-01", 9.15 ], [ "2023-06-01", 91.82 ], [ "2023-08-01", 16.27 ], [ "2023-10-01", 66.77 ], [ "2023-12-01", 10.71 ], [ "2024-02-01", 22.78 ], [ "2024-04-01", 28.24 ], [ "2024-06-01", 3.51 ], [ "2024-08-01", 4.65 ], [ "2024-10-01", 3.47 ], [ "2024-12-01", 24.43 ], [ "2025-02-01", 56.0 ], [ "2025-04-01", 84.94 ], [ "2025-06-01", 87.01 ], [ "2025-08-01", 77.81 ], [ "2025-10-01", 67.04 ], [ "2025-12-01", 71.39 ], [ "2026-02-01", 50.55 ], [ "2026-04-01", 67.03 ], [ "2026-06-01", 78.69 ], [ "2026-08-01", 97.28 ], [ "2026-09-01", 93.77 ] ] }, "kaub": { "key": "kaub", "label": "Rhein-Pegel Kaub", "unit": "cm", "decimals": 0, "note": "Momentanzeige mit deklarierter Schwelle: Der Gleichwertige Wasserstand (GlW 2023) liegt bei 77 cm \u2014 darunter fahren Rheinschiffe nur noch mit Bruchteilen ihrer Ladung. Bis 150 cm gilt die Schifffahrt als eingeschr\u00e4nkt. Die Reihe akkumuliert sich aus 30-Tage-Fenstern selbst; ein Perzentil gibt es erst nach Jahren.", "source": "WSV Pegelonline, Tagesmittel, seit 01.09.2026 fortlaufend", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2026-08-01", "raw": 18.0, "as_of": "2026-10-12", "threshold": 77, "warn": 150, "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "spark": [ [ "2026-08-14", 6.0 ], [ "2026-08-15", 6.7308 ], [ "2026-08-16", 6.0 ], [ "2026-08-17", 8.1364 ], [ "2026-08-18", 13.6667 ], [ "2026-08-19", 18.7778 ], [ "2026-08-20", 43.0 ], [ "2026-08-21", 42.2857 ], [ "2026-08-22", 35.2308 ], [ "2026-08-23", 49.7143 ], [ "2026-08-24", 74.0 ], [ "2026-08-25", 67.8571 ], [ "2026-08-26", 64.0 ], [ "2026-08-27", 58.7143 ], [ "2026-08-28", 62.5 ], [ "2026-08-29", 75.5 ], [ "2026-08-30", 72.6667 ], [ "2026-08-31", 72.7308 ], [ "2026-09-01", 65.1429 ], [ "2026-09-02", 52.0 ], [ "2026-09-03", 46.2857 ], [ "2026-09-04", 39.8462 ], [ "2026-09-05", 33.1 ], [ "2026-09-06", 33.3636 ], [ "2026-09-07", 30.0 ], [ "2026-09-08", 28.6364 ], [ "2026-09-09", 25.1667 ], [ "2026-09-10", 19.0 ], [ "2026-09-11", 22.3939 ], [ "2026-09-12", 20.6354 ], [ "2026-09-13", 25.2917 ], [ "2026-09-14", 31.0833 ], [ "2026-09-15", 30.7234 ], [ "2026-09-16", 27.4479 ], [ "2026-09-17", 24.3021 ], [ "2026-09-18", 23.0 ], [ "2026-09-19", 21.7188 ], [ "2026-09-20", 18.4271 ], [ "2026-09-21", 15.625 ], [ "2026-09-22", 12.625 ], [ "2026-09-23", 11.3438 ], [ "2026-09-24", 5.7604 ], [ "2026-09-25", 2.4271 ], [ "2026-09-26", -0.8438 ], [ "2026-09-27", -0.6042 ], [ "2026-09-28", 1.5368 ], [ "2026-09-29", 1.6875 ], [ "2026-09-30", -0.7812 ], [ "2026-10-01", -4.8021 ], [ "2026-10-02", -0.9167 ], [ "2026-10-03", 8.25 ], [ "2026-10-04", 7.5729 ], [ "2026-10-05", 6.2604 ], [ "2026-10-06", 1.5833 ], [ "2026-10-07", 1.3229 ], [ "2026-10-08", 0.9896 ], [ "2026-10-09", 7.5833 ], [ "2026-10-10", 7.8229 ], [ "2026-10-11", 15.0417 ], [ "2026-10-12", 18.0794 ] ], "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 12, "from": "2026-08-02", "to": "2026-10-12", "tau": 0.33, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": 20.69, "run": 0, "change": -9.14, "move_pct": null, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "enso_oni": { "key": "enso_oni", "label": "ENSO-Index (ONI)", "unit": "\u00b0C", "decimals": 2, "note": "Dreimonatsmittel der Ni\u00f1o-3.4-Anomalie, die amtliche Z\u00e4hlgr\u00f6\u00dfe der CPC. Ab +0,5 \u00b0C El Ni\u00f1o, ab +2,0 \u00b0C \u201every strong\u201c (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16). Hoch ist hier die Gefahr, weil die harten Teleconnections \u2014 D\u00fcrre im s\u00fcdlichen Afrika, in S\u00fcdostasien, Indien, Australien \u2014 an El Ni\u00f1o h\u00e4ngen, nicht an La Ni\u00f1a.", "source": "NOAA/CPC Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index, ab 1950", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1950-01-01", "raw": 2.16, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 99.02, "status": "aktiv", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.85, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 56.6, "run": 9, "change": 69.54, "move_pct": 87.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1959-12-01", 54.17 ], [ "1960-06-01", 46.83 ], [ "1960-12-01", 43.18 ], [ "1961-06-01", 61.59 ], [ "1961-12-01", 43.75 ], [ "1962-06-01", 41.33 ], [ "1962-12-01", 32.05 ], [ "1963-06-01", 76.54 ], [ "1963-12-01", 95.83 ], [ "1964-06-01", 13.79 ], [ "1964-12-01", 11.67 ], [ "1965-06-01", 88.71 ], [ "1965-12-01", 97.92 ], [ "1966-06-01", 60.61 ], [ "1966-12-01", 28.92 ], [ "1967-06-01", 54.76 ], [ "1967-12-01", 25.93 ], [ "1968-06-01", 63.51 ], [ "1968-12-01", 88.6 ], [ "1969-06-01", 73.5 ], [ "1969-12-01", 82.92 ], [ "1970-06-01", 31.71 ], [ "1970-12-01", 3.97 ], [ "1971-06-01", 14.34 ], [ "1971-12-01", 10.61 ], [ "1972-06-01", 83.33 ], [ "1972-12-01", 99.28 ], [ "1973-06-01", 8.16 ], [ "1973-12-01", 0.35 ], [ "1974-06-01", 20.41 ], [ "1974-12-01", 17.0 ], [ "1975-06-01", 8.5 ], [ "1975-12-01", 2.24 ], [ "1976-06-01", 54.4 ], [ "1976-12-01", 88.27 ], [ "1977-06-01", 73.64 ], [ "1977-12-01", 87.8 ], [ "1978-06-01", 40.64 ], [ "1978-12-01", 58.33 ], [ "1979-06-01", 58.76 ], [ "1979-12-01", 81.67 ], [ "1980-06-01", 70.77 ], [ "1980-12-01", 47.31 ], [ "1981-06-01", 37.83 ], [ "1981-12-01", 44.27 ], [ "1982-06-01", 86.41 ], [ "1982-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "1983-06-01", 79.35 ], [ "1983-12-01", 9.07 ], [ "1984-06-01", 23.91 ], [ "1984-12-01", 7.38 ], [ "1985-06-01", 22.3 ], [ "1985-12-01", 34.95 ], [ "1986-06-01", 54.79 ], [ "1986-12-01", 94.59 ], [ "1987-06-01", 92.44 ], [ "1987-12-01", 89.47 ], [ "1988-06-01", 3.25 ], [ "1988-12-01", 0.85 ], [ "1989-06-01", 32.91 ], [ "1989-12-01", 51.46 ], [ "1990-06-01", 65.02 ], [ "1990-12-01", 69.51 ], [ "1991-06-01", 80.52 ], [ "1991-12-01", 95.83 ], [ "1992-06-01", 82.55 ], [ "1992-12-01", 47.87 ], [ "1993-06-01", 76.44 ], [ "1993-12-01", 57.95 ], [ "1994-06-01", 60.67 ], [ "1994-12-01", 88.89 ], [ "1995-06-01", 42.12 ], [ "1995-12-01", 7.97 ], [ "1996-06-01", 37.99 ], [ "1996-12-01", 28.19 ], [ "1997-06-01", 92.98 ], [ "1997-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "1998-06-01", 43.99 ], [ "1998-12-01", 2.55 ], [ "1999-06-01", 11.62 ], [ "1999-12-01", 2.0 ], [ "2000-06-01", 21.95 ], [ "2000-12-01", 16.01 ], [ "2001-06-01", 47.25 ], [ "2001-12-01", 36.22 ], [ "2002-06-01", 73.33 ], [ "2002-12-01", 90.57 ], [ "2003-06-01", 44.86 ], [ "2003-12-01", 66.2 ], [ "2004-06-01", 60.86 ], [ "2004-12-01", 82.88 ], [ "2005-06-01", 53.9 ], [ "2005-12-01", 12.05 ], [ "2006-06-01", 47.94 ], [ "2006-12-01", 87.43 ], [ "2007-06-01", 28.84 ], [ "2007-12-01", 0.86 ], [ "2008-06-01", 23.22 ], [ "2008-12-01", 14.97 ], [ "2009-06-01", 69.89 ], [ "2009-12-01", 96.53 ], [ "2010-06-01", 19.7 ], [ "2010-12-01", 3.01 ], [ "2011-06-01", 34.82 ], [ "2011-12-01", 11.56 ], [ "2012-06-01", 54.0 ], [ "2012-12-01", 50.93 ], [ "2013-06-01", 32.81 ], [ "2013-12-01", 47.66 ], [ "2014-06-01", 62.53 ], [ "2014-12-01", 86.67 ], [ "2015-06-01", 93.89 ], [ "2015-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2016-06-01", 55.51 ], [ "2016-12-01", 32.46 ], [ "2017-06-01", 68.02 ], [ "2017-12-01", 16.18 ], [ "2018-06-01", 57.66 ], [ "2018-12-01", 90.58 ], [ "2019-06-01", 77.82 ], [ "2019-12-01", 83.81 ], [ "2020-06-01", 41.96 ], [ "2020-12-01", 7.75 ], [ "2021-06-01", 35.66 ], [ "2021-12-01", 12.85 ], [ "2022-06-01", 17.24 ], [ "2022-12-01", 19.06 ], [ "2023-06-01", 84.35 ], [ "2023-12-01", 98.42 ], [ "2024-06-01", 58.84 ], [ "2024-12-01", 29.56 ], [ "2025-06-01", 50.99 ], [ "2025-12-01", 22.37 ], [ "2026-06-01", 94.34 ], [ "2026-08-01", 99.02 ] ] }, "nino34_weekly": { "key": "nino34_weekly", "label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4, Wochenwert", "unit": "\u00b0C", "decimals": 1, "note": "Der aktuelle Stand, bevor der Dreimonatsindex ihn einholt. Schwellen nach CPC-Konvention: ab +1,0 \u00b0C moderat bis stark, ab +2,0 \u00b0C \u201every strong\u201c. Bezugsperiode 1991\u20132020, deshalb nicht auf die Kommastelle mit dem ONI vergleichbar.", "source": "NOAA/CPC Weekly SST (wksst9120), w\u00f6chentlich ab 1981", "danger": "high", "mode": "spot", "start": "1981-09-02", "raw": 3.2, "as_of": "2026-09-30", "threshold": 2.0, "warn": 1.0, "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "spark": [ [ "2025-08-13", -0.3 ], [ "2025-08-20", -0.4 ], [ "2025-08-27", -0.4 ], [ "2025-09-03", -0.3 ], [ "2025-09-10", -0.5 ], [ "2025-09-17", -0.4 ], [ "2025-09-24", -0.5 ], [ "2025-10-01", -0.5 ], [ "2025-10-08", -0.3 ], [ "2025-10-15", -0.6 ], [ "2025-10-22", -0.6 ], [ "2025-10-29", -0.6 ], [ "2025-11-05", -0.7 ], [ "2025-11-12", -0.8 ], [ "2025-11-19", -0.8 ], [ "2025-11-26", -0.6 ], [ "2025-12-03", -0.5 ], [ "2025-12-10", -0.7 ], [ "2025-12-17", -0.7 ], [ "2025-12-24", -0.7 ], [ "2025-12-31", -0.6 ], [ "2026-01-07", -0.7 ], [ "2026-01-14", -0.6 ], [ "2026-01-21", -0.4 ], [ "2026-01-28", -0.5 ], [ "2026-02-04", -0.4 ], [ "2026-02-11", -0.2 ], [ "2026-02-18", -0.1 ], [ "2026-02-25", -0.1 ], [ "2026-03-04", -0.1 ], [ "2026-03-11", -0.1 ], [ "2026-03-18", 0.0 ], [ "2026-03-25", 0.1 ], [ "2026-04-01", 0.1 ], [ "2026-04-08", 0.2 ], [ "2026-04-15", 0.5 ], [ "2026-04-22", 0.8 ], [ "2026-04-29", 0.9 ], [ "2026-05-06", 0.8 ], [ "2026-05-13", 0.9 ], [ "2026-05-20", 0.9 ], [ "2026-05-27", 1.0 ], [ "2026-06-03", 1.3 ], [ "2026-06-10", 1.5 ], [ "2026-06-17", 1.7 ], [ "2026-06-24", 1.8 ], [ "2026-07-01", 1.7 ], [ "2026-07-08", 2.0 ], [ "2026-07-15", 2.1 ], [ "2026-07-22", 2.2 ], [ "2026-07-29", 2.4 ], [ "2026-08-05", 2.5 ], [ "2026-08-12", 2.6 ], [ "2026-08-19", 2.6 ], [ "2026-08-26", 2.6 ], [ "2026-09-02", 2.8 ], [ "2026-09-09", 2.8 ], [ "2026-09-16", 3.0 ], [ "2026-09-23", 3.1 ], [ "2026-09-30", 3.2 ] ], "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-08", "to": "2026-09-30", "tau": 0.97, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 1.53, "run": 3, "change": 3.0, "move_pct": 99.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "season": { "window_days": 10, "anchor": "2026-09-30", "n_years": 46, "rank": 1, "current": 3.2, "median": -0.1, "prev_best": { "year": 2015, "date": "2015-10-07", "value": 2.1 }, "gap": 1.1, "peers": [ { "year": 2015, "date": "2015-10-07", "value": 2.1 }, { "year": 1982, "date": "1982-10-06", "value": 2.0 }, { "year": 1997, "date": "1997-10-01", "value": 2.0 }, { "year": 2023, "date": "2023-09-20", "value": 1.7 } ] } }, "nino34_sst": { "key": "nino34_sst", "label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4, Absolutwert", "unit": "\u00b0C", "decimals": 1, "note": "Die Wassertemperatur selbst, nicht ihre Abweichung \u2014 und der Grund, warum sie eine eigene Reihe braucht: Die Atmosph\u00e4re reagiert auf Absolutwerte. Tiefe Konvektion \u00fcber tropischem Ozean setzt erst oberhalb von etwa 28 \u00b0C ein; erst dann verschiebt sich die Walker-Zirkulation, und erst dann entstehen die Teleconnections, an denen die Ernten h\u00e4ngen. Das ist die Vorstufenschwelle (18,6 % aller Wochen seit 1981). Die 29,0 \u00b0C sind keine Theorie, sondern ein Auswahlkriterium: Nur die vier Jahrhundert-El-Ni\u00f1os 1982, 1997, 2015/16 und 2026 haben sie erreicht \u2014 1,6 % aller Wochen. Aus der Abweichung allein ist das nicht ableitbar, weil die Box einen Jahresgang von 1,3 \u00b0C hat (Mai 27,8 \u00b0C, Januar 26,4 \u00b0C).", "source": "NOAA/CPC Weekly SST (wksst9120), Spalte SST, w\u00f6chentlich ab 1981; Konvektionsschwelle nach Graham & Barnett (1987), Science", "danger": "high", "mode": "spot", "start": "1981-09-02", "raw": 29.9, "as_of": "2026-09-30", "threshold": 29.0, "warn": 28.0, "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "spark": [ [ "2025-08-13", 26.6 ], [ "2025-08-20", 26.4 ], [ "2025-08-27", 26.3 ], [ "2025-09-03", 26.4 ], [ "2025-09-10", 26.2 ], [ "2025-09-17", 26.3 ], [ "2025-09-24", 26.2 ], [ "2025-10-01", 26.2 ], [ "2025-10-08", 26.4 ], [ "2025-10-15", 26.1 ], [ "2025-10-22", 26.2 ], [ "2025-10-29", 26.1 ], [ "2025-11-05", 26.1 ], [ "2025-11-12", 26.0 ], [ "2025-11-19", 25.9 ], [ "2025-11-26", 26.1 ], [ "2025-12-03", 26.2 ], [ "2025-12-10", 25.9 ], [ "2025-12-17", 25.9 ], [ "2025-12-24", 25.9 ], [ "2025-12-31", 25.9 ], [ "2026-01-07", 25.8 ], [ "2026-01-14", 25.9 ], [ "2026-01-21", 26.0 ], [ "2026-01-28", 26.0 ], [ "2026-02-04", 26.1 ], [ "2026-02-11", 26.4 ], [ "2026-02-18", 26.6 ], [ "2026-02-25", 26.7 ], [ "2026-03-04", 26.8 ], [ "2026-03-11", 27.0 ], [ "2026-03-18", 27.3 ], [ "2026-03-25", 27.5 ], [ "2026-04-01", 27.6 ], [ "2026-04-08", 27.9 ], [ "2026-04-15", 28.3 ], [ "2026-04-22", 28.6 ], [ "2026-04-29", 28.8 ], [ "2026-05-06", 28.7 ], [ "2026-05-13", 28.8 ], [ "2026-05-20", 28.8 ], [ "2026-05-27", 28.8 ], [ "2026-06-03", 29.1 ], [ "2026-06-10", 29.2 ], [ "2026-06-17", 29.4 ], [ "2026-06-24", 29.3 ], [ "2026-07-01", 29.2 ], [ "2026-07-08", 29.3 ], [ "2026-07-15", 29.4 ], [ "2026-07-22", 29.4 ], [ "2026-07-29", 29.4 ], [ "2026-08-05", 29.5 ], [ "2026-08-12", 29.4 ], [ "2026-08-19", 29.4 ], [ "2026-08-26", 29.4 ], [ "2026-09-02", 29.5 ], [ "2026-09-09", 29.5 ], [ "2026-09-16", 29.6 ], [ "2026-09-23", 29.7 ], [ "2026-09-30", 29.9 ] ], "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-08", "to": "2026-09-30", "tau": 0.95, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 1.46, "run": 7, "change": 2.95, "move_pct": 99.2, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": true, "deseasonalize_wanted": true }, "season": { "window_days": 10, "anchor": "2026-09-30", "n_years": 46, "rank": 1, "current": 29.9, "median": 26.6, "prev_best": { "year": 2015, "date": "2015-10-07", "value": 28.8 }, "gap": 1.1, "peers": [ { "year": 2015, "date": "2015-10-07", "value": 28.8 }, { "year": 1982, "date": "1982-10-06", "value": 28.7 }, { "year": 1997, "date": "1997-10-01", "value": 28.7 }, { "year": 2023, "date": "2023-09-20", "value": 28.3 } ] } }, "gas_eu": { "key": "gas_eu", "label": "Erdgaspreis Europa (TTF)", "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "decimals": 1, "note": "Preisschub gegen\u00fcber Vorjahr. Erdgas ist der Rohstoff der Ammoniaksynthese und damit des Stickstoffd\u00fcngers \u2014 der Pfad, \u00fcber den ein Energieschock (Hormus, Ebene 5) in die Aussaat des Folgejahres einwandert.", "source": "IMF Primary Commodity Prices \u00fcber FRED (PNGASEUUSDM), ab 1992", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1992-01-01", "raw": 17.9, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 44.67, "stress": 87.34, "status": "erhoeht", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.39, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 41.94, "run": 1, "change": 57.24, "move_pct": 73.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2002-12-01", 36.67 ], [ "2003-02-01", 74.59 ], [ "2003-04-01", 90.32 ], [ "2003-06-01", 90.48 ], [ "2003-08-01", 90.62 ], [ "2003-10-01", 81.54 ], [ "2003-12-01", 80.3 ], [ "2004-02-01", 58.96 ], [ "2004-04-01", 42.65 ], [ "2004-06-01", 42.03 ], [ "2004-08-01", 54.29 ], [ "2004-10-01", 80.99 ], [ "2004-12-01", 81.25 ], [ "2005-02-01", 91.78 ], [ "2005-04-01", 91.89 ], [ "2005-06-01", 92.0 ], [ "2005-08-01", 92.11 ], [ "2005-10-01", 90.26 ], [ "2005-12-01", 90.38 ], [ "2006-02-01", 86.71 ], [ "2006-04-01", 83.12 ], [ "2006-06-01", 83.33 ], [ "2006-08-01", 76.22 ], [ "2006-10-01", 71.08 ], [ "2006-12-01", 71.43 ], [ "2007-02-01", 54.71 ], [ "2007-04-01", 30.23 ], [ "2007-06-01", 31.03 ], [ "2007-08-01", 28.41 ], [ "2007-10-01", 37.64 ], [ "2007-12-01", 38.33 ], [ "2008-02-01", 71.98 ], [ "2008-04-01", 88.59 ], [ "2008-06-01", 88.71 ], [ "2008-08-01", 95.21 ], [ "2008-10-01", 95.26 ], [ "2008-12-01", 95.31 ], [ "2009-02-01", 77.84 ], [ "2009-04-01", 8.16 ], [ "2009-06-01", 9.09 ], [ "2009-08-01", 0.5 ], [ "2009-10-01", 0.5 ], [ "2009-12-01", 1.47 ], [ "2010-02-01", 3.88 ], [ "2010-04-01", 35.1 ], [ "2010-06-01", 30.95 ], [ "2010-08-01", 77.83 ], [ "2010-10-01", 74.3 ], [ "2010-12-01", 74.54 ], [ "2011-02-01", 65.6 ], [ "2011-04-01", 65.0 ], [ "2011-06-01", 68.92 ], [ "2011-08-01", 72.32 ], [ "2011-10-01", 80.53 ], [ "2011-12-01", 78.95 ], [ "2012-02-01", 73.04 ], [ "2012-04-01", 68.1 ], [ "2012-06-01", 68.38 ], [ "2012-08-01", 38.98 ], [ "2012-10-01", 27.73 ], [ "2012-12-01", 29.17 ], [ "2013-02-01", 27.27 ], [ "2013-04-01", 26.23 ], [ "2013-06-01", 23.17 ], [ "2013-08-01", 32.26 ], [ "2013-10-01", 28.8 ], [ "2013-12-01", 28.97 ], [ "2014-02-01", 29.53 ], [ "2014-04-01", 26.17 ], [ "2014-06-01", 27.52 ], [ "2014-08-01", 30.77 ], [ "2014-10-01", 31.3 ], [ "2014-12-01", 31.44 ], [ "2015-02-01", 18.42 ], [ "2015-04-01", 7.09 ], [ "2015-06-01", 7.78 ], [ "2015-08-01", 4.41 ], [ "2015-10-01", 3.28 ], [ "2015-12-01", 3.26 ], [ "2016-02-01", 2.88 ], [ "2016-04-01", 4.29 ], [ "2016-06-01", 4.96 ], [ "2016-08-01", 7.75 ], [ "2016-10-01", 11.19 ], [ "2016-12-01", 28.12 ], [ "2017-02-01", 74.83 ], [ "2017-04-01", 73.29 ], [ "2017-06-01", 71.09 ], [ "2017-08-01", 76.69 ], [ "2017-10-01", 86.24 ], [ "2017-12-01", 83.0 ], [ "2018-02-01", 74.5 ], [ "2018-04-01", 84.21 ], [ "2018-06-01", 88.24 ], [ "2018-08-01", 84.74 ], [ "2018-10-01", 84.19 ], [ "2018-12-01", 54.81 ], [ "2019-02-01", 14.97 ], [ "2019-04-01", 12.03 ], [ "2019-06-01", 2.2 ], [ "2019-08-01", 1.25 ], [ "2019-10-01", 0.62 ], [ "2019-12-01", 5.25 ], [ "2020-02-01", 4.29 ], [ "2020-04-01", 2.13 ], [ "2020-06-01", 4.55 ], [ "2020-08-01", 21.69 ], [ "2020-10-01", 85.03 ], [ "2020-12-01", 79.76 ], [ "2021-02-01", 99.11 ], [ "2021-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2021-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2021-08-01", 99.13 ], [ "2021-10-01", 99.42 ], [ "2021-12-01", 99.71 ], [ "2022-02-01", 97.71 ], [ "2022-04-01", 97.44 ], [ "2022-06-01", 96.33 ], [ "2022-08-01", 97.47 ], [ "2022-10-01", 14.8 ], [ "2022-12-01", 35.0 ], [ "2023-02-01", 10.5 ], [ "2023-04-01", 2.75 ], [ "2023-06-01", 0.27 ], [ "2023-08-01", 0.27 ], [ "2023-10-01", 13.24 ], [ "2023-12-01", 1.34 ], [ "2024-02-01", 7.49 ], [ "2024-04-01", 16.49 ], [ "2024-06-01", 50.0 ], [ "2024-08-01", 61.05 ], [ "2024-10-01", 38.22 ], [ "2024-12-01", 66.41 ], [ "2025-02-01", 92.23 ], [ "2025-04-01", 70.1 ], [ "2025-06-01", 60.51 ], [ "2025-08-01", 30.1 ], [ "2025-10-01", 26.4 ], [ "2025-12-01", 16.67 ], [ "2026-02-01", 20.6 ], [ "2026-04-01", 74.25 ], [ "2026-06-01", 67.16 ], [ "2026-07-01", 87.34 ] ] }, "fertilizer_ppi": { "key": "fertilizer_ppi", "label": "D\u00fcngemittelpreise (US-Erzeugerpreise)", "unit": "Index 1982=100", "decimals": 1, "note": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung der Erzeugerpreise f\u00fcr D\u00fcngemittel. US-Reihe als Weltmarkt-Proxy \u2014 Harnstoff und Kali werden global gehandelt, und keine europ\u00e4ische D\u00fcngerreihe hat einen keylosen Endpunkt. Die Reihe reicht bis 1933 und enth\u00e4lt damit alle D\u00fcngerkrisen.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (WPU0652), monatlich ab 1933", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1933-01-01", "raw": 406.8, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 11.81, "stress": 82.1, "status": "erhoeht", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": 0.0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 1.25, "run": 0, "change": -8.82, "move_pct": 26.4, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1943-12-01", 60.0 ], [ "1944-08-01", 44.53 ], [ "1945-04-01", 44.85 ], [ "1945-12-01", 36.11 ], [ "1946-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1947-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "1947-12-01", 79.76 ], [ "1948-08-01", 75.57 ], [ "1949-04-01", 72.83 ], [ "1949-12-01", 19.27 ], [ "1950-08-01", 4.5 ], [ "1951-04-01", 45.19 ], [ "1951-12-01", 69.91 ], [ "1952-08-01", 58.04 ], [ "1953-04-01", 53.88 ], [ "1953-12-01", 39.17 ], [ "1954-08-01", 14.52 ], [ "1955-04-01", 19.14 ], [ "1955-12-01", 15.91 ], [ "1956-08-01", 2.57 ], [ "1957-04-01", 10.36 ], [ "1957-12-01", 56.94 ], [ "1958-08-01", 15.88 ], [ "1959-04-01", 14.8 ], [ "1959-12-01", 54.81 ], [ "1960-08-01", 66.25 ], [ "1961-04-01", 64.94 ], [ "1961-12-01", 36.31 ], [ "1962-08-01", 7.85 ], [ "1963-04-01", 21.31 ], [ "1963-12-01", 20.83 ], [ "1964-08-01", 69.84 ], [ "1965-04-01", 77.66 ], [ "1965-12-01", 67.97 ], [ "1966-08-01", 38.52 ], [ "1967-04-01", 69.5 ], [ "1967-12-01", 18.14 ], [ "1968-08-01", 12.5 ], [ "1969-04-01", 0.47 ], [ "1969-12-01", 0.69 ], [ "1970-08-01", 14.77 ], [ "1971-04-01", 77.23 ], [ "1971-12-01", 13.82 ], [ "1972-08-01", 83.19 ], [ "1973-04-01", 56.14 ], [ "1973-12-01", 76.46 ], [ "1974-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1975-04-01", 98.99 ], [ "1975-12-01", 17.66 ], [ "1976-08-01", 2.15 ], [ "1977-04-01", 24.81 ], [ "1977-12-01", 42.8 ], [ "1978-08-01", 30.41 ], [ "1979-04-01", 78.49 ], [ "1979-12-01", 96.01 ], [ "1980-08-01", 95.36 ], [ "1981-04-01", 86.44 ], [ "1981-12-01", 85.07 ], [ "1982-08-01", 8.56 ], [ "1983-04-01", 6.42 ], [ "1983-12-01", 25.0 ], [ "1984-08-01", 78.12 ], [ "1985-04-01", 10.71 ], [ "1985-12-01", 20.67 ], [ "1986-08-01", 4.11 ], [ "1987-04-01", 59.38 ], [ "1987-12-01", 86.27 ], [ "1988-08-01", 86.28 ], [ "1989-04-01", 87.35 ], [ "1989-12-01", 2.68 ], [ "1990-08-01", 37.5 ], [ "1991-04-01", 76.89 ], [ "1991-12-01", 19.25 ], [ "1992-08-01", 9.09 ], [ "1993-04-01", 12.92 ], [ "1993-12-01", 43.61 ], [ "1994-08-01", 94.92 ], [ "1995-04-01", 94.7 ], [ "1995-12-01", 87.63 ], [ "1996-08-01", 56.65 ], [ "1997-04-01", 22.89 ], [ "1997-12-01", 7.94 ], [ "1998-08-01", 11.73 ], [ "1999-04-01", 24.49 ], [ "1999-12-01", 19.07 ], [ "2000-08-01", 51.0 ], [ "2001-04-01", 96.16 ], [ "2001-12-01", 2.21 ], [ "2002-08-01", 27.31 ], [ "2003-04-01", 97.12 ], [ "2003-12-01", 93.93 ], [ "2004-08-01", 86.67 ], [ "2005-04-01", 75.7 ], [ "2005-12-01", 90.97 ], [ "2006-08-01", 49.54 ], [ "2007-04-01", 95.68 ], [ "2007-12-01", 98.31 ], [ "2008-08-01", 99.55 ], [ "2009-04-01", 1.55 ], [ "2009-12-01", 0.77 ], [ "2010-08-01", 94.78 ], [ "2011-04-01", 96.23 ], [ "2011-12-01", 92.84 ], [ "2012-08-01", 20.13 ], [ "2013-04-01", 64.18 ], [ "2013-12-01", 2.71 ], [ "2014-08-01", 49.38 ], [ "2015-04-01", 24.49 ], [ "2015-12-01", 9.86 ], [ "2016-08-01", 1.21 ], [ "2017-04-01", 13.9 ], [ "2017-12-01", 75.2 ], [ "2018-08-01", 88.19 ], [ "2019-04-01", 57.52 ], [ "2019-12-01", 1.45 ], [ "2020-08-01", 11.54 ], [ "2021-04-01", 97.14 ], [ "2021-12-01", 98.96 ], [ "2022-08-01", 93.8 ], [ "2023-04-01", 0.84 ], [ "2023-12-01", 1.76 ], [ "2024-08-01", 73.35 ], [ "2025-04-01", 67.52 ], [ "2025-12-01", 83.79 ], [ "2026-08-01", 82.1 ] ] }, "wheat": { "key": "wheat", "label": "Weizen, Weltmarktpreis", "unit": "USD/t", "decimals": 0, "note": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung des IWF-Referenzpreises (US Hard Red Winter, Golf). Preis ist nicht Menge: 2026 treibt ihn die Schwarzmeer-Fracht, nicht die Bilanz \u2014 die Stocks-to-Use-Ratio, die das trennen w\u00fcrde, ist unbeobachtet.", "source": "IMF \u00fcber FRED (PWHEAMTUSDM), monatlich ab 1992", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1992-01-01", "raw": 229.0, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 32.5, "stress": 88.34, "status": "erhoeht", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.7, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 32.65, "run": 2, "change": 47.78, "move_pct": 72.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2002-12-01", 95.0 ], [ "2003-02-01", 92.62 ], [ "2003-04-01", 79.03 ], [ "2003-06-01", 57.94 ], [ "2003-08-01", 35.16 ], [ "2003-10-01", 6.15 ], [ "2003-12-01", 47.73 ], [ "2004-02-01", 55.22 ], [ "2004-04-01", 78.68 ], [ "2004-06-01", 78.26 ], [ "2004-08-01", 35.71 ], [ "2004-10-01", 40.85 ], [ "2004-12-01", 25.0 ], [ "2005-02-01", 29.45 ], [ "2005-04-01", 20.27 ], [ "2005-06-01", 36.0 ], [ "2005-08-01", 69.74 ], [ "2005-10-01", 81.17 ], [ "2005-12-01", 77.56 ], [ "2006-02-01", 92.41 ], [ "2006-04-01", 93.75 ], [ "2006-06-01", 96.3 ], [ "2006-08-01", 84.76 ], [ "2006-10-01", 89.76 ], [ "2006-12-01", 89.29 ], [ "2007-02-01", 67.65 ], [ "2007-04-01", 68.02 ], [ "2007-06-01", 75.86 ], [ "2007-08-01", 96.59 ], [ "2007-10-01", 98.31 ], [ "2007-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-04-01", 97.83 ], [ "2008-06-01", 92.47 ], [ "2008-08-01", 81.91 ], [ "2008-10-01", 1.58 ], [ "2008-12-01", 0.52 ], [ "2009-02-01", 0.52 ], [ "2009-04-01", 2.04 ], [ "2009-06-01", 8.08 ], [ "2009-08-01", 2.0 ], [ "2009-10-01", 17.33 ], [ "2009-12-01", 34.31 ], [ "2010-02-01", 21.36 ], [ "2010-04-01", 12.5 ], [ "2010-06-01", 4.76 ], [ "2010-08-01", 79.72 ], [ "2010-10-01", 90.65 ], [ "2010-12-01", 94.91 ], [ "2011-02-01", 99.08 ], [ "2011-04-01", 98.64 ], [ "2011-06-01", 97.3 ], [ "2011-08-01", 82.14 ], [ "2011-10-01", 57.08 ], [ "2011-12-01", 26.75 ], [ "2012-02-01", 12.17 ], [ "2012-04-01", 9.91 ], [ "2012-06-01", 26.5 ], [ "2012-08-01", 61.86 ], [ "2012-10-01", 80.67 ], [ "2012-12-01", 82.08 ], [ "2013-02-01", 61.98 ], [ "2013-04-01", 68.03 ], [ "2013-06-01", 60.57 ], [ "2013-08-01", 20.97 ], [ "2013-10-01", 31.2 ], [ "2013-12-01", 18.25 ], [ "2014-02-01", 34.65 ], [ "2014-04-01", 53.91 ], [ "2014-06-01", 44.19 ], [ "2014-08-01", 32.69 ], [ "2014-10-01", 9.92 ], [ "2014-12-01", 42.42 ], [ "2015-02-01", 24.06 ], [ "2015-04-01", 7.46 ], [ "2015-06-01", 11.48 ], [ "2015-08-01", 10.66 ], [ "2015-10-01", 14.6 ], [ "2015-12-01", 6.88 ], [ "2016-02-01", 16.55 ], [ "2016-04-01", 28.93 ], [ "2016-06-01", 15.25 ], [ "2016-08-01", 10.21 ], [ "2016-10-01", 10.49 ], [ "2016-12-01", 11.46 ], [ "2017-02-01", 44.14 ], [ "2017-04-01", 32.53 ], [ "2017-06-01", 54.76 ], [ "2017-08-01", 65.2 ], [ "2017-10-01", 65.1 ], [ "2017-12-01", 76.33 ], [ "2018-02-01", 74.83 ], [ "2018-04-01", 85.86 ], [ "2018-06-01", 79.74 ], [ "2018-08-01", 92.53 ], [ "2018-10-01", 90.0 ], [ "2018-12-01", 83.33 ], [ "2019-02-01", 54.46 ], [ "2019-04-01", 35.13 ], [ "2019-06-01", 38.68 ], [ "2019-08-01", 7.19 ], [ "2019-10-01", 22.05 ], [ "2019-12-01", 35.8 ], [ "2020-02-01", 47.24 ], [ "2020-04-01", 69.21 ], [ "2020-06-01", 47.88 ], [ "2020-08-01", 73.49 ], [ "2020-10-01", 87.13 ], [ "2020-12-01", 85.71 ], [ "2021-02-01", 90.53 ], [ "2021-04-01", 86.18 ], [ "2021-06-01", 90.35 ], [ "2021-08-01", 94.48 ], [ "2021-10-01", 91.62 ], [ "2021-12-01", 92.24 ], [ "2022-02-01", 90.57 ], [ "2022-04-01", 96.31 ], [ "2022-06-01", 95.48 ], [ "2022-08-01", 69.66 ], [ "2022-10-01", 71.51 ], [ "2022-12-01", 48.06 ], [ "2023-02-01", 42.27 ], [ "2023-04-01", 12.09 ], [ "2023-06-01", 7.1 ], [ "2023-08-01", 9.78 ], [ "2023-10-01", 1.62 ], [ "2023-12-01", 7.8 ], [ "2024-02-01", 3.48 ], [ "2024-04-01", 4.26 ], [ "2024-06-01", 9.79 ], [ "2024-08-01", 10.0 ], [ "2024-10-01", 39.79 ], [ "2024-12-01", 22.14 ], [ "2025-02-01", 34.2 ], [ "2025-04-01", 30.15 ], [ "2025-06-01", 31.03 ], [ "2025-08-01", 40.56 ], [ "2025-10-01", 19.54 ], [ "2025-12-01", 38.64 ], [ "2026-02-01", 43.47 ], [ "2026-04-01", 70.75 ], [ "2026-06-01", 69.9 ], [ "2026-07-01", 88.34 ] ] }, "maize": { "key": "maize", "label": "Mais, Weltmarktpreis", "unit": "USD/t", "decimals": 0, "note": "Die Sommerkultur, die 2026 in Europa verloren hat, und das Grundnahrungsmittel des s\u00fcdlichen Afrikas, dessen Hauptsaison in den El-Ni\u00f1o-Peak f\u00e4llt.", "source": "IMF \u00fcber FRED (PMAIZMTUSDM), monatlich ab 1992", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1992-01-01", "raw": 213.0, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 10.23, "stress": 67.99, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": -0.09, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -0.03, "run": 1, "change": 4.98, "move_pct": 12.5, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2002-12-01", 78.33 ], [ "2003-02-01", 78.69 ], [ "2003-04-01", 82.26 ], [ "2003-06-01", 74.6 ], [ "2003-08-01", 34.38 ], [ "2003-10-01", 42.31 ], [ "2003-12-01", 67.42 ], [ "2004-02-01", 76.87 ], [ "2004-04-01", 86.03 ], [ "2004-06-01", 74.64 ], [ "2004-08-01", 62.86 ], [ "2004-10-01", 26.06 ], [ "2004-12-01", 18.75 ], [ "2005-02-01", 6.85 ], [ "2005-04-01", 4.05 ], [ "2005-06-01", 11.33 ], [ "2005-08-01", 43.42 ], [ "2005-10-01", 69.48 ], [ "2005-12-01", 69.23 ], [ "2006-02-01", 75.95 ], [ "2006-04-01", 73.75 ], [ "2006-06-01", 74.69 ], [ "2006-08-01", 79.88 ], [ "2006-10-01", 93.37 ], [ "2006-12-01", 97.62 ], [ "2007-02-01", 98.24 ], [ "2007-04-01", 90.7 ], [ "2007-06-01", 93.68 ], [ "2007-08-01", 86.36 ], [ "2007-10-01", 71.91 ], [ "2007-12-01", 68.33 ], [ "2008-02-01", 81.87 ], [ "2008-04-01", 97.28 ], [ "2008-06-01", 99.46 ], [ "2008-08-01", 93.62 ], [ "2008-10-01", 62.63 ], [ "2008-12-01", 21.88 ], [ "2009-02-01", 4.64 ], [ "2009-04-01", 3.06 ], [ "2009-06-01", 2.53 ], [ "2009-08-01", 3.5 ], [ "2009-10-01", 33.17 ], [ "2009-12-01", 55.88 ], [ "2010-02-01", 47.57 ], [ "2010-04-01", 34.62 ], [ "2010-06-01", 20.0 ], [ "2010-08-01", 72.17 ], [ "2010-10-01", 88.32 ], [ "2010-12-01", 93.06 ], [ "2011-02-01", 99.08 ], [ "2011-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2011-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2011-08-01", 96.43 ], [ "2011-10-01", 69.91 ], [ "2011-12-01", 52.63 ], [ "2012-02-01", 34.78 ], [ "2012-04-01", 19.83 ], [ "2012-06-01", 20.09 ], [ "2012-08-01", 58.05 ], [ "2012-10-01", 71.43 ], [ "2012-12-01", 72.92 ], [ "2013-02-01", 59.09 ], [ "2013-04-01", 49.59 ], [ "2013-06-01", 61.79 ], [ "2013-08-01", 4.84 ], [ "2013-10-01", 2.8 ], [ "2013-12-01", 3.57 ], [ "2014-02-01", 6.3 ], [ "2014-04-01", 13.67 ], [ "2014-06-01", 5.81 ], [ "2014-08-01", 11.15 ], [ "2014-10-01", 15.65 ], [ "2014-12-01", 30.68 ], [ "2015-02-01", 18.05 ], [ "2015-04-01", 12.69 ], [ "2015-06-01", 17.04 ], [ "2015-08-01", 37.13 ], [ "2015-10-01", 59.12 ], [ "2015-12-01", 35.87 ], [ "2016-02-01", 35.97 ], [ "2016-04-01", 41.43 ], [ "2016-06-01", 62.41 ], [ "2016-08-01", 37.68 ], [ "2016-10-01", 27.27 ], [ "2016-12-01", 38.89 ], [ "2017-02-01", 56.21 ], [ "2017-04-01", 40.75 ], [ "2017-06-01", 25.51 ], [ "2017-08-01", 49.66 ], [ "2017-10-01", 46.98 ], [ "2017-12-01", 47.33 ], [ "2018-02-01", 53.97 ], [ "2018-04-01", 72.04 ], [ "2018-06-01", 61.11 ], [ "2018-08-01", 66.56 ], [ "2018-10-01", 64.19 ], [ "2018-12-01", 72.76 ], [ "2019-02-01", 58.92 ], [ "2019-04-01", 34.18 ], [ "2019-06-01", 78.93 ], [ "2019-08-01", 52.81 ], [ "2019-10-01", 59.94 ], [ "2019-12-01", 50.93 ], [ "2020-02-01", 49.69 ], [ "2020-04-01", 29.27 ], [ "2020-06-01", 9.39 ], [ "2020-08-01", 30.72 ], [ "2020-10-01", 71.56 ], [ "2020-12-01", 80.06 ], [ "2021-02-01", 90.83 ], [ "2021-04-01", 98.53 ], [ "2021-06-01", 99.12 ], [ "2021-08-01", 95.64 ], [ "2021-10-01", 83.24 ], [ "2021-12-01", 85.06 ], [ "2022-02-01", 76.86 ], [ "2022-04-01", 83.52 ], [ "2022-06-01", 71.47 ], [ "2022-08-01", 71.07 ], [ "2022-10-01", 88.55 ], [ "2022-12-01", 70.28 ], [ "2023-02-01", 51.93 ], [ "2023-04-01", 15.38 ], [ "2023-06-01", 12.57 ], [ "2023-08-01", 5.43 ], [ "2023-10-01", 2.97 ], [ "2023-12-01", 5.38 ], [ "2024-02-01", 2.41 ], [ "2024-04-01", 4.79 ], [ "2024-06-01", 7.94 ], [ "2024-08-01", 16.32 ], [ "2024-10-01", 22.77 ], [ "2024-12-01", 45.57 ], [ "2025-02-01", 76.68 ], [ "2025-04-01", 71.13 ], [ "2025-06-01", 54.87 ], [ "2025-08-01", 63.01 ], [ "2025-10-01", 58.12 ], [ "2025-12-01", 51.52 ], [ "2026-02-01", 37.44 ], [ "2026-04-01", 49.0 ], [ "2026-06-01", 49.5 ], [ "2026-07-01", 67.99 ] ] }, "rice": { "key": "rice", "label": "Reis, Weltmarktpreis", "unit": "USD/t", "decimals": 0, "note": "Thail\u00e4ndischer Exportpreis (5 % Bruch). Reis ist der d\u00fcnnste Weltmarkt der drei Getreide \u2014 der Gro\u00dfteil wird dort gegessen, wo er w\u00e4chst \u2014 und der mit der direktesten El-Ni\u00f1o-Exponierung (Indonesien 1998, Indien 2023). Reihe erst ab 2010.", "source": "IMF \u00fcber FRED (PRICENPQUSDM), monatlich ab 2010", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "2010-05-01", "raw": 464.0, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 23.3, "stress": 94.54, "status": "aktiv", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 1.0, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 50.59, "run": 11, "change": 93.96, "move_pct": 98.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2021-04-01", 15.0 ], [ "2021-05-01", 39.67 ], [ "2021-06-01", 21.31 ], [ "2021-07-01", 17.07 ], [ "2021-08-01", 9.68 ], [ "2021-09-01", 7.2 ], [ "2021-10-01", 12.7 ], [ "2021-11-01", 12.6 ], [ "2021-12-01", 3.91 ], [ "2022-01-01", 3.88 ], [ "2022-02-01", 3.85 ], [ "2022-03-01", 15.27 ], [ "2022-04-01", 21.97 ], [ "2022-05-01", 22.56 ], [ "2022-06-01", 44.03 ], [ "2022-07-01", 56.3 ], [ "2022-08-01", 69.12 ], [ "2022-09-01", 75.91 ], [ "2022-10-01", 70.29 ], [ "2022-11-01", 74.82 ], [ "2022-12-01", 87.14 ], [ "2023-01-01", 95.04 ], [ "2023-02-01", 91.55 ], [ "2023-03-01", 70.63 ], [ "2023-04-01", 84.72 ], [ "2023-05-01", 85.52 ], [ "2023-06-01", 81.51 ], [ "2023-07-01", 96.6 ], [ "2023-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2023-09-01", 99.33 ], [ "2023-10-01", 98.67 ], [ "2023-11-01", 97.35 ], [ "2023-12-01", 97.37 ], [ "2024-01-01", 96.08 ], [ "2024-02-01", 93.51 ], [ "2024-03-01", 96.13 ], [ "2024-04-01", 88.46 ], [ "2024-05-01", 89.81 ], [ "2024-06-01", 90.51 ], [ "2024-07-01", 68.55 ], [ "2024-08-01", 30.0 ], [ "2024-09-01", 25.47 ], [ "2024-10-01", 16.05 ], [ "2024-11-01", 18.4 ], [ "2024-12-01", 10.37 ], [ "2025-01-01", 0.61 ], [ "2025-02-01", 0.6 ], [ "2025-03-01", 0.6 ], [ "2025-04-01", 1.79 ], [ "2025-05-01", 0.59 ], [ "2025-06-01", 0.59 ], [ "2025-07-01", 1.17 ], [ "2025-08-01", 0.58 ], [ "2025-09-01", 1.16 ], [ "2025-10-01", 3.45 ], [ "2025-11-01", 4.0 ], [ "2025-12-01", 13.07 ], [ "2026-01-01", 19.21 ], [ "2026-02-01", 33.15 ], [ "2026-03-01", 34.64 ], [ "2026-04-01", 45.0 ], [ "2026-05-01", 57.46 ], [ "2026-06-01", 80.22 ], [ "2026-07-01", 94.54 ] ] }, "fao_cereals": { "key": "fao_cereals", "label": "FAO-Getreidepreisindex", "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "decimals": 1, "note": "Teilindex des FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex (S\u00e4ule IV) \u2014 die Getreidekomponente, die Ernte- und Frachtschocks zuerst zeigt. Bewertet als Jahresver\u00e4nderung; das Niveau bewertet die S\u00e4ule.", "source": "FAO Food Price Index, Teilindex Cereals, monatlich ab 1990", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1990-01-01", "raw": 122.8, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 15.85, "stress": 80.89, "status": "erhoeht", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": 0.91, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 24.51, "run": 3, "change": 54.33, "move_pct": 82.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2000-12-01", 72.5 ], [ "2001-02-01", 65.57 ], [ "2001-04-01", 57.26 ], [ "2001-06-01", 59.52 ], [ "2001-08-01", 73.44 ], [ "2001-10-01", 59.23 ], [ "2001-12-01", 50.76 ], [ "2002-02-01", 44.03 ], [ "2002-04-01", 50.74 ], [ "2002-06-01", 68.84 ], [ "2002-08-01", 81.43 ], [ "2002-10-01", 92.96 ], [ "2002-12-01", 83.33 ], [ "2003-02-01", 80.82 ], [ "2003-04-01", 80.41 ], [ "2003-06-01", 74.67 ], [ "2003-08-01", 63.82 ], [ "2003-10-01", 37.66 ], [ "2003-12-01", 74.36 ], [ "2004-02-01", 86.71 ], [ "2004-04-01", 91.25 ], [ "2004-06-01", 82.1 ], [ "2004-08-01", 49.39 ], [ "2004-10-01", 46.99 ], [ "2004-12-01", 27.98 ], [ "2005-02-01", 17.65 ], [ "2005-04-01", 8.14 ], [ "2005-06-01", 23.56 ], [ "2005-08-01", 63.07 ], [ "2005-10-01", 67.98 ], [ "2005-12-01", 61.11 ], [ "2006-02-01", 71.98 ], [ "2006-04-01", 74.46 ], [ "2006-06-01", 77.96 ], [ "2006-08-01", 80.32 ], [ "2006-10-01", 94.74 ], [ "2006-12-01", 97.92 ], [ "2007-02-01", 95.88 ], [ "2007-04-01", 92.86 ], [ "2007-06-01", 95.96 ], [ "2007-08-01", 99.0 ], [ "2007-10-01", 98.51 ], [ "2007-12-01", 99.51 ], [ "2008-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-06-01", 98.1 ], [ "2008-08-01", 88.68 ], [ "2008-10-01", 8.88 ], [ "2008-12-01", 1.85 ], [ "2009-02-01", 0.46 ], [ "2009-04-01", 0.91 ], [ "2009-06-01", 1.8 ], [ "2009-08-01", 3.12 ], [ "2009-10-01", 20.8 ], [ "2009-12-01", 60.09 ], [ "2010-02-01", 40.43 ], [ "2010-04-01", 30.17 ], [ "2010-06-01", 11.11 ], [ "2010-08-01", 83.47 ], [ "2010-10-01", 92.86 ], [ "2010-12-01", 94.17 ], [ "2011-02-01", 97.11 ], [ "2011-04-01", 97.95 ], [ "2011-06-01", 97.97 ], [ "2011-08-01", 82.66 ], [ "2011-10-01", 52.4 ], [ "2011-12-01", 17.86 ], [ "2012-02-01", 12.6 ], [ "2012-04-01", 10.16 ], [ "2012-06-01", 10.85 ], [ "2012-08-01", 51.92 ], [ "2012-10-01", 66.41 ], [ "2012-12-01", 76.89 ], [ "2013-02-01", 63.53 ], [ "2013-04-01", 58.58 ], [ "2013-06-01", 61.48 ], [ "2013-08-01", 6.62 ], [ "2013-10-01", 6.93 ], [ "2013-12-01", 7.25 ], [ "2014-02-01", 11.51 ], [ "2014-04-01", 32.5 ], [ "2014-06-01", 19.86 ], [ "2014-08-01", 33.1 ], [ "2014-10-01", 27.62 ], [ "2014-12-01", 36.81 ], [ "2015-02-01", 11.72 ], [ "2015-04-01", 5.48 ], [ "2015-06-01", 9.52 ], [ "2015-08-01", 11.15 ], [ "2015-10-01", 13.09 ], [ "2015-12-01", 8.33 ], [ "2016-02-01", 16.56 ], [ "2016-04-01", 27.96 ], [ "2016-06-01", 47.39 ], [ "2016-08-01", 47.4 ], [ "2016-10-01", 40.65 ], [ "2016-12-01", 45.19 ], [ "2017-02-01", 60.83 ], [ "2017-04-01", 49.68 ], [ "2017-06-01", 49.69 ], [ "2017-08-01", 61.56 ], [ "2017-10-01", 66.15 ], [ "2017-12-01", 68.52 ], [ "2018-02-01", 70.55 ], [ "2018-04-01", 83.23 ], [ "2018-06-01", 69.7 ], [ "2018-08-01", 73.19 ], [ "2018-10-01", 71.26 ], [ "2018-12-01", 70.83 ], [ "2019-02-01", 56.51 ], [ "2019-04-01", 27.35 ], [ "2019-06-01", 47.66 ], [ "2019-08-01", 23.26 ], [ "2019-10-01", 39.31 ], [ "2019-12-01", 42.82 ], [ "2020-02-01", 49.43 ], [ "2020-04-01", 64.2 ], [ "2020-06-01", 46.89 ], [ "2020-08-01", 67.7 ], [ "2020-10-01", 81.84 ], [ "2020-12-01", 84.17 ], [ "2021-02-01", 87.57 ], [ "2021-04-01", 87.64 ], [ "2021-06-01", 90.16 ], [ "2021-08-01", 88.59 ], [ "2021-10-01", 83.51 ], [ "2021-12-01", 82.53 ], [ "2022-02-01", 77.27 ], [ "2022-04-01", 90.43 ], [ "2022-06-01", 86.24 ], [ "2022-08-01", 69.74 ], [ "2022-10-01", 69.11 ], [ "2022-12-01", 59.38 ], [ "2023-02-01", 50.0 ], [ "2023-04-01", 5.93 ], [ "2023-06-01", 4.1 ], [ "2023-08-01", 13.78 ], [ "2023-10-01", 9.14 ], [ "2023-12-01", 10.86 ], [ "2024-02-01", 4.77 ], [ "2024-04-01", 10.25 ], [ "2024-06-01", 27.36 ], [ "2024-08-01", 20.54 ], [ "2024-10-01", 30.05 ], [ "2024-12-01", 26.96 ], [ "2025-02-01", 48.54 ], [ "2025-04-01", 49.76 ], [ "2025-06-01", 34.78 ], [ "2025-08-01", 40.14 ], [ "2025-10-01", 26.56 ], [ "2025-12-01", 42.38 ], [ "2026-02-01", 43.36 ], [ "2026-04-01", 52.59 ], [ "2026-06-01", 58.22 ], [ "2026-08-01", 71.73 ], [ "2026-09-01", 80.89 ] ] }, "de_food_hicp": { "key": "de_food_hicp", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrungsmittel Deutschland", "unit": "Index 2015=100", "decimals": 1, "note": "Jahresteuerung des HVPI-Teilindex Nahrungsmittel und alkoholfreie Getr\u00e4nke. Das Ende der Kette im Inland: Weltmarkt- und Ernteschocks kommen hier mit sechs bis zw\u00f6lf Monaten Verz\u00f6gerung und stark ged\u00e4mpft an \u2014 2022/23 war die Ausnahme.", "source": "Eurostat \u00fcber FRED (CP0110DEM086NEST), monatlich ab 1996", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1996-01-01", "raw": 100.2, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 0.27, "stress": 23.03, "status": "ruhig", "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-09-01", "to": "2026-08-01", "tau": -0.67, "direction": "abnehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": -16.4, "run": 0, "change": -33.78, "move_pct": 67.7, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2006-12-01", 85.83 ], [ "2007-01-01", 85.95 ], [ "2007-02-01", 81.15 ], [ "2007-03-01", 80.49 ], [ "2007-04-01", 87.1 ], [ "2007-05-01", 76.8 ], [ "2007-06-01", 75.4 ], [ "2007-07-01", 77.95 ], [ "2007-08-01", 84.38 ], [ "2007-09-01", 85.27 ], [ "2007-10-01", 93.08 ], [ "2007-11-01", 94.66 ], [ "2007-12-01", 95.45 ], [ "2008-01-01", 97.74 ], [ "2008-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-03-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-04-01", 97.79 ], [ "2008-05-01", 99.27 ], [ "2008-06-01", 97.1 ], [ "2008-07-01", 99.28 ], [ "2008-08-01", 92.14 ], [ "2008-09-01", 87.94 ], [ "2008-10-01", 83.1 ], [ "2008-11-01", 73.43 ], [ "2008-12-01", 72.92 ], [ "2009-01-01", 55.86 ], [ "2009-02-01", 57.53 ], [ "2009-03-01", 35.37 ], [ "2009-04-01", 20.27 ], [ "2009-05-01", 11.41 ], [ "2009-06-01", 18.67 ], [ "2009-07-01", 1.32 ], [ "2009-08-01", 1.32 ], [ "2009-09-01", 0.65 ], [ "2009-10-01", 0.65 ], [ "2009-11-01", 3.23 ], [ "2009-12-01", 4.49 ], [ "2010-01-01", 12.1 ], [ "2010-02-01", 17.09 ], [ "2010-03-01", 42.77 ], [ "2010-04-01", 66.88 ], [ "2010-05-01", 64.6 ], [ "2010-06-01", 61.73 ], [ "2010-07-01", 80.37 ], [ "2010-08-01", 82.32 ], [ "2010-09-01", 84.24 ], [ "2010-10-01", 81.93 ], [ "2010-11-01", 85.03 ], [ "2010-12-01", 85.12 ], [ "2011-01-01", 80.47 ], [ "2011-02-01", 83.53 ], [ "2011-03-01", 74.27 ], [ "2011-04-01", 65.7 ], [ "2011-05-01", 82.08 ], [ "2011-06-01", 70.69 ], [ "2011-07-01", 66.29 ], [ "2011-08-01", 74.43 ], [ "2011-09-01", 80.23 ], [ "2011-10-01", 84.27 ], [ "2011-11-01", 77.65 ], [ "2011-12-01", 70.56 ], [ "2012-01-01", 78.45 ], [ "2012-02-01", 85.71 ], [ "2012-03-01", 86.34 ], [ "2012-04-01", 84.78 ], [ "2012-05-01", 70.81 ], [ "2012-06-01", 84.41 ], [ "2012-07-01", 79.68 ], [ "2012-08-01", 82.98 ], [ "2012-09-01", 77.25 ], [ "2012-10-01", 82.11 ], [ "2012-11-01", 87.96 ], [ "2012-12-01", 88.02 ], [ "2013-01-01", 87.56 ], [ "2013-02-01", 77.84 ], [ "2013-03-01", 84.62 ], [ "2013-04-01", 85.71 ], [ "2013-05-01", 90.36 ], [ "2013-06-01", 89.9 ], [ "2013-07-01", 90.45 ], [ "2013-08-01", 86.0 ], [ "2013-09-01", 84.08 ], [ "2013-10-01", 82.18 ], [ "2013-11-01", 69.95 ], [ "2013-12-01", 82.35 ], [ "2014-01-01", 82.44 ], [ "2014-02-01", 80.1 ], [ "2014-03-01", 59.9 ], [ "2014-04-01", 54.81 ], [ "2014-05-01", 33.49 ], [ "2014-06-01", 27.14 ], [ "2014-07-01", 28.91 ], [ "2014-08-01", 35.38 ], [ "2014-09-01", 44.13 ], [ "2014-10-01", 42.52 ], [ "2014-11-01", 30.23 ], [ "2014-12-01", 10.65 ], [ "2015-01-01", 7.83 ], [ "2015-02-01", 21.1 ], [ "2015-03-01", 26.48 ], [ "2015-04-01", 47.73 ], [ "2015-05-01", 53.85 ], [ "2015-06-01", 45.5 ], [ "2015-07-01", 36.77 ], [ "2015-08-01", 44.64 ], [ "2015-09-01", 51.11 ], [ "2015-10-01", 60.18 ], [ "2015-11-01", 66.52 ], [ "2015-12-01", 52.63 ], [ "2016-01-01", 45.85 ], [ "2016-02-01", 43.91 ], [ "2016-03-01", 57.58 ], [ "2016-04-01", 42.24 ], [ "2016-05-01", 34.33 ], [ "2016-06-01", 36.75 ], [ "2016-07-01", 57.02 ], [ "2016-08-01", 49.58 ], [ "2016-09-01", 42.19 ], [ "2016-10-01", 29.83 ], [ "2016-11-01", 52.72 ], [ "2016-12-01", 75.42 ], [ "2017-01-01", 82.16 ], [ "2017-02-01", 89.67 ], [ "2017-03-01", 67.9 ], [ "2017-04-01", 60.66 ], [ "2017-05-01", 66.53 ], [ "2017-06-01", 70.33 ], [ "2017-07-01", 70.45 ], [ "2017-08-01", 77.42 ], [ "2017-09-01", 81.53 ], [ "2017-10-01", 88.0 ], [ "2017-11-01", 78.49 ], [ "2017-12-01", 73.41 ], [ "2018-01-01", 75.49 ], [ "2018-02-01", 40.16 ], [ "2018-03-01", 74.51 ], [ "2018-04-01", 79.3 ], [ "2018-05-01", 84.05 ], [ "2018-06-01", 79.46 ], [ "2018-07-01", 66.8 ], [ "2018-08-01", 65.77 ], [ "2018-09-01", 72.41 ], [ "2018-10-01", 58.4 ], [ "2018-11-01", 52.85 ], [ "2018-12-01", 43.56 ], [ "2019-01-01", 38.49 ], [ "2019-02-01", 51.13 ], [ "2019-03-01", 36.7 ], [ "2019-04-01", 37.31 ], [ "2019-05-01", 42.75 ], [ "2019-06-01", 51.48 ], [ "2019-07-01", 64.94 ], [ "2019-08-01", 71.32 ], [ "2019-09-01", 55.31 ], [ "2019-10-01", 48.91 ], [ "2019-11-01", 60.36 ], [ "2019-12-01", 62.68 ], [ "2020-01-01", 68.95 ], [ "2020-02-01", 83.81 ], [ "2020-03-01", 87.1 ], [ "2020-04-01", 91.79 ], [ "2020-05-01", 89.68 ], [ "2020-06-01", 89.36 ], [ "2020-07-01", 43.82 ], [ "2020-08-01", 35.92 ], [ "2020-09-01", 34.74 ], [ "2020-10-01", 51.75 ], [ "2020-11-01", 51.22 ], [ "2020-12-01", 30.9 ], [ "2021-01-01", 61.59 ], [ "2021-02-01", 53.1 ], [ "2021-03-01", 54.98 ], [ "2021-04-01", 56.51 ], [ "2021-05-01", 47.44 ], [ "2021-06-01", 42.86 ], [ "2021-07-01", 89.15 ], [ "2021-08-01", 89.86 ], [ "2021-09-01", 91.25 ], [ "2021-10-01", 89.26 ], [ "2021-11-01", 89.3 ], [ "2021-12-01", 95.0 ], [ "2022-01-01", 92.03 ], [ "2022-02-01", 92.72 ], [ "2022-03-01", 96.04 ], [ "2022-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-05-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-07-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-09-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-11-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-12-01", 99.68 ], [ "2023-01-01", 99.68 ], [ "2023-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2023-03-01", 100.0 ], [ "2023-04-01", 97.78 ], [ "2023-05-01", 97.16 ], [ "2023-06-01", 96.54 ], [ "2023-07-01", 95.92 ], [ "2023-08-01", 95.31 ], [ "2023-09-01", 94.7 ], [ "2023-10-01", 92.55 ], [ "2023-11-01", 88.54 ], [ "2023-12-01", 86.11 ], [ "2024-01-01", 82.46 ], [ "2024-02-01", 49.08 ], [ "2024-03-01", 18.65 ], [ "2024-04-01", 37.5 ], [ "2024-05-01", 38.6 ], [ "2024-06-01", 49.39 ], [ "2024-07-01", 52.57 ], [ "2024-08-01", 53.31 ], [ "2024-09-01", 55.26 ], [ "2024-10-01", 64.97 ], [ "2024-11-01", 57.91 ], [ "2024-12-01", 59.82 ], [ "2025-01-01", 36.2 ], [ "2025-02-01", 63.02 ], [ "2025-03-01", 72.27 ], [ "2025-04-01", 70.29 ], [ "2025-05-01", 65.4 ], [ "2025-06-01", 52.05 ], [ "2025-07-01", 55.39 ], [ "2025-08-01", 61.34 ], [ "2025-09-01", 56.81 ], [ "2025-10-01", 43.35 ], [ "2025-11-01", 44.96 ], [ "2025-12-01", 37.93 ], [ "2026-01-01", 62.18 ], [ "2026-02-01", 45.14 ], [ "2026-03-01", 39.32 ], [ "2026-04-01", 43.18 ], [ "2026-05-01", 30.88 ], [ "2026-06-01", 28.53 ], [ "2026-07-01", 27.04 ], [ "2026-08-01", 23.03 ] ] } }, "nodes": [ { "key": "enso", "label": "ENSO-Zustand (Dreimonatsindex)", "region": "Pazifik", "desc": "Der gr\u00f6\u00dfte Einzeltreiber der interannuellen Ernteschwankung weltweit. Wirkt in Europa schwach; hart in den Tropen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "enso_oni", "stress": 99.02, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 2.16, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "nino_now", "label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 aktuell", "region": "Pazifik", "desc": "Wochenwert \u2014 was sich gerade aufbaut, bevor es im Dreimonatsindex steht.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "nino34_weekly", "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 3.2, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "key": "nino_sst", "label": "Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Wassertemperatur", "region": "Pazifik", "desc": "Der Absolutwert, auf den die Atmosph\u00e4re reagiert: Konvektion ab etwa 28 \u00b0C. Die Abweichung sagt, wie selten der Zustand ist \u2014 dieser Knoten, ob die physikalische Schwelle f\u00e4llt.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "nino34_sst", "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 29.9, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "key": "tropics_harvest", "label": "Ernten der El-Ni\u00f1o-Regionen", "region": "S\u00fcdl. Afrika \u00b7 SO-Asien \u00b7 Indien \u00b7 Australien", "desc": "Wo El Ni\u00f1o wirklich bei\u00dft \u2014 und wo die Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit entsteht, nicht in Bayern.", "kind": "unobserved", "stress": null, "status": "unbeobachtet", "why": "FEWS NET, GIEWS und SARCOF liefern Lageberichte, keine keylose Zeitreihe. Die Mais-Hauptsaison im s\u00fcdlichen Afrika (Aussaat Oktober, Ernte April) f\u00e4llt exakt in den erwarteten El-Ni\u00f1o-Peak; Befund fr\u00fchestens ab Januar 2027." }, { "key": "de_rain", "label": "Niederschlag Deutschland (12 Monate)", "region": "Deutschland", "desc": "Der Zulauf des Systems: das laufende Jahr gegen 145 Jahre Messgeschichte.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_precip_12m", "stress": 95.86, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 599.0, "unit": "mm", "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, { "key": "de_deep_water", "label": "Tiefenwasser-Proxy (36 Monate)", "region": "Deutschland", "desc": "Mehrjahresbilanz als N\u00e4herung f\u00fcr Grundwasserneubildung. Das Speicherdefizit selbst (GRACE-FO: rund 25 Mrd. t) ist nur als Publikation greifbar, nicht als Reihe.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_precip_36m", "stress": 40.72, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 2344.0, "unit": "mm", "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, { "key": "de_soil", "label": "Bodenfeuchte Wurzelraum", "region": "Deutschland", "desc": "Der Boden, in dem die Wintersaat 2026 keimen muss \u2014 als Abweichung vom eigenen Monatsmittel.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_soil_moisture", "stress": 93.77, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 50.5, "unit": "% nFK", "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, { "key": "rhine", "label": "Rhein bei Kaub", "region": "Deutschland", "desc": "Die Logistikader f\u00fcr Getreide, D\u00fcnger und Kraftstoff. 2018 kostete das Niedrigwasser messbar Industrieproduktion.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "kaub", "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 18.0, "unit": "cm", "as_of": "2026-10-12" }, { "key": "eu_harvest", "label": "EU-Ernte (Ertrag je Hektar)", "region": "EU", "desc": "Wo Boden und Wetter zur Menge werden \u2014 der Knoten, den Reels \u201eErnteausfall\u201c nennen.", "kind": "unobserved", "stress": null, "status": "unbeobachtet", "why": "JRC MARS ver\u00f6ffentlicht die Ertragsprognosen als PDF, Destatis die endg\u00fcltigen Zahlen erst Ende September. Stand 01.09.2026: Wintergetreide EU auf F\u00fcnfjahresniveau, Mais EU \u22127 %, Frankreich \u221234 % (kleinste Ernte seit 1980)." }, { "key": "gas", "label": "Erdgas Europa", "region": "Europa", "desc": "Verbindungspunkt zu Ebene 5: Was am \u00d6lmarkt beginnt, kommt \u00fcber den Gaspreis in der Landwirtschaft an.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "gas_eu", "stress": 87.34, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 17.9, "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "fertilizer", "label": "D\u00fcngemittelpreise", "region": "global", "desc": "Teurer Stickstoff senkt den D\u00fcngereinsatz des Folgejahres \u2014 der Pfad Gaspreis \u2192 Aussaat 2027.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "fertilizer_ppi", "stress": 82.1, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 406.8, "unit": "Index 1982=100", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "world_wheat", "label": "Weizen Weltmarkt", "region": "global", "desc": "Das politischste Getreide: Brotpreis in Nordafrika und Nahost.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "wheat", "stress": 88.34, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 229.0, "unit": "USD/t", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "world_maize", "label": "Mais Weltmarkt", "region": "global", "desc": "Futter, Ethanol, Grundnahrung des s\u00fcdlichen Afrikas.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "maize", "stress": 67.99, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 213.0, "unit": "USD/t", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "world_rice", "label": "Reis Weltmarkt", "region": "Asien", "desc": "Der d\u00fcnnste Markt mit der direktesten El-Ni\u00f1o-Exponierung.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "rice", "stress": 94.54, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 464.0, "unit": "USD/t", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "stocks", "label": "Weltlager (Stocks-to-Use)", "region": "global", "desc": "Die eine Kennzahl, die entscheidet, ob ein Ernteschock zur Versorgungskrise wird.", "kind": "unobserved", "stress": null, "status": "unbeobachtet", "why": "USDA PSD und WASDE brauchen einen API-Schl\u00fcssel, FAO AMIS liefert keine keylose Zeitreihe. Stand WASDE August 2026: Weizen 33 %, Reis 35 % Stocks-to-Use; 2007/08 lag Weizen ohne China bei 17,5 %. Der Puffer, der Preisdrama von Knappheit trennt." }, { "key": "fao_cereals", "label": "FAO-Getreideindex", "region": "global", "desc": "Die Getreidekomponente des Weltnahrungsmittelpreises.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "fao_cereals", "stress": 80.89, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 122.8, "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, { "key": "fao_index", "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "region": "global", "desc": "S\u00e4ulen-Indikator (S\u00e4ule IV): das Niveau gegen die Historie seit 1990. 2008 und 2011 ging er den Unruhewellen voraus.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "food_price", "stress": 97.5, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 136.0, "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, { "key": "de_consumer", "label": "Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE", "region": "Deutschland", "desc": "Ob der D\u00fcrresommer im Supermarkt ankommt \u2014 mit Verz\u00f6gerung, ged\u00e4mpft, zuerst bei Gem\u00fcse, Kartoffeln, Zucker.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_food_hicp", "stress": 23.03, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 100.2, "unit": "Index 2015=100", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "hunger", "label": "Akute Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit", "region": "global", "desc": "Das Ende der Kette. Entsteht aus Konflikt und Kaufkraft, selten aus globaler Menge.", "kind": "unobserved", "stress": null, "status": "unbeobachtet", "why": "IPC-Klassifikationen und der Global Report on Food Crises erscheinen als Berichte; WFP HungerMap braucht Zugang. Stand GRFC 2026: 266 Mio. Menschen in IPC 3+, 12 von 13 Hunger-Hotspots konfliktgetrieben; WFP erwartet +49 Mio. durch El Ni\u00f1o bis Ende 2027." } ], "edges": [ { "src": "nino_now", "dst": "enso", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Definitorisch: Der Dreimonatsindex ist das gleitende Mittel der Wochenwerte \u2014 was heute im Wochenwert steht, steht in zwei Monaten im ONI.", "source": "NOAA/CPC, ENSO-Definition", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "nino_sst", "dst": "nino_now", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Definitorisch: Die Abweichung ist der Absolutwert minus der Klimatologie 1991\u20132020. Beide Reihen stammen aus derselben Datei und derselben Spaltengruppe.", "source": "NOAA/CPC, wksst9120 (Spalten SST und SSTA)", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "nino_sst", "dst": "tropics_harvest", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Die atmosph\u00e4rische Antwort h\u00e4ngt am Absolutwert, nicht an der Abweichung: Tiefe Konvektion \u00fcber tropischem Ozean beginnt oberhalb von etwa 28 \u00b0C. Erst wenn das Konvektionszentrum nach Osten wandert, verschiebt sich der Regen \u00fcber Afrika, S\u00fcdostasien und Australien. Dieselbe Abweichung wirkt deshalb in einem warmen Grundzustand st\u00e4rker als in einem k\u00fchlen.", "source": "Graham & Barnett (1987), Science; Johnson & Xie (2010), Nature Geoscience (Konvektionsschwelle steigt mit der Erw\u00e4rmung mit)", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "enso", "dst": "tropics_harvest", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Teleconnections: El Ni\u00f1o verschiebt den Regen im s\u00fcdlichen Afrika, in S\u00fcdostasien, Indien und Ostaustralien; Mais, Reis und Weizen dort verlieren in starken Jahren zweistellig.", "source": "Iizumi et al. (2014), Nature Communications; FAO/WFP El-Ni\u00f1o-Anticipatory-Action-Pl\u00e4ne; 2015/16-Bilanz SADC", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "tropics_harvest", "dst": "world_maize", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Importbedarf des s\u00fcdlichen Afrikas hebt regionale Preise stark, den Weltmarkt nur am Rand \u2014 die Region ist im Weltmaishandel klein.", "condition": "prestress", "source": "FEWS NET Preis-Bulletins 2016; USDA Grain: World Markets", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "tropics_harvest", "dst": "world_rice", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Ausf\u00e4lle in Indonesien, auf den Philippinen und in Indien treffen einen d\u00fcnnen Markt; 1998 wurde Indonesien gr\u00f6\u00dfter Reisimporteur der Welt, 2023 sperrte Indien Exporte.", "condition": "prestress", "source": "FAO Rice Market Monitor; Dawe (2002)", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "tropics_harvest", "dst": "hunger", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "In Subsistenzregionen ist die Ernte das Einkommen: Der Ausfall wird direkt zur Ern\u00e4hrungsunsicherheit, unabh\u00e4ngig von Weltmarktpreisen.", "source": "Global Report on Food Crises; IPC-Methodik", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "de_rain", "dst": "de_soil", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Wasserbilanz: Niederschlag minus Verdunstung f\u00fcllt oder leert den Wurzelraum \u2014 bei hoher Verdunstung reichen 30 mm nur wenige Zentimeter tief.", "source": "DWD AMBETI-Modellbeschreibung; UFZ D\u00fcrremonitor", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "de_rain", "dst": "de_deep_water", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Grundwasserneubildung findet fast nur im Winterhalbjahr statt, wenn der Boden ges\u00e4ttigt ist; ein Sommer-Defizit wird erst durch mehrere nasse Winter aufgeholt.", "source": "BGR Hydrogeologie; Forschungszentrum J\u00fclich, Grundwasser-Studien 2022\u20132026", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "de_deep_water", "dst": "rhine", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Der Rhein-Niedrigwasserabfluss wird von Grundwasser- und Alpenspeisung getragen; leere Speicher hei\u00dfen tiefe Pegel.", "source": "BfG Niedrigwasserberichte 2018, 2022", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "de_soil", "dst": "eu_harvest", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Wasserstress in Bl\u00fcte und Kornf\u00fcllung senkt den Ertrag; f\u00fcr Europa sind D\u00fcrre-Ertragsverluste attributiert und seit den 1960ern verdreifacht.", "source": "Br\u00e1s et al. (2021), Environmental Research Letters; JRC MARS", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "rhine", "dst": "de_consumer", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Niedrigwasser verteuert Fracht und verknappt Zulieferung; der Preiseffekt beim Verbraucher ist klein und indirekt.", "source": "Ademmer et al. (2020), IfW Kiel: Rhein-Niedrigwasser 2018", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "gas", "dst": "fertilizer", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Erdgas macht 70\u201380 % der Produktionskosten von Ammoniak und Harnstoff aus; europ\u00e4ische Werke drosseln bei hohen Gaspreisen.", "source": "IFA; EU-Kommission, D\u00fcngemittelmitteilung 2022", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "fertilizer", "dst": "eu_harvest", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Sinkende Erschwinglichkeit senkt den Stickstoffeinsatz der n\u00e4chsten Aussaat; der Ertragseffekt kommt mit einem Jahr Verz\u00f6gerung.", "source": "Weltbank Commodity Markets Outlook; IFA Nutrient Outlook", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "eu_harvest", "dst": "world_wheat", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Die EU ist einer der drei gr\u00f6\u00dften Weizenexporteure; ihre Ernte bewegt die Exportpreise am Golf und in Rouen.", "source": "USDA WASDE; Strategie Grains", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "eu_harvest", "dst": "world_maize", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Die EU ist Nettoimporteur von Mais; ein Ausfall erh\u00f6ht die Importnachfrage, bewegt aber den Weltmarkt weniger als die US-Ernte.", "source": "EU-Kommission Short-term Outlook", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "stocks", "dst": "world_wheat", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Preisspitzen entstehen, wenn Lager unter kritische Quoten fallen: 2007/08 bei Weizen ohne China unter 18 %. Volle Lager d\u00e4mpfen denselben Ernteschock.", "source": "Bobenrieth, Wright & Zeng (2013), Agricultural Economics", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "world_wheat", "dst": "fao_cereals", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Indexkonstruktion: Der FAO-Getreideindex ist aus Exportpreisnotierungen f\u00fcr Weizen, Mais, Reis gewichtet.", "source": "FAO, Methodik Food Price Index", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "world_maize", "dst": "fao_cereals", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Indexkonstruktion (siehe Weizen).", "source": "FAO, Methodik Food Price Index", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "world_rice", "dst": "fao_cereals", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Indexkonstruktion (siehe Weizen).", "source": "FAO, Methodik Food Price Index", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "fao_cereals", "dst": "fao_index", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Der Getreideindex ist mit rund 27 % die gr\u00f6\u00dfte Komponente des Gesamtindex.", "source": "FAO, Methodik Food Price Index", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "fao_index", "dst": "de_consumer", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Weltmarktpreise kommen mit 6\u201312 Monaten Verz\u00f6gerung und ged\u00e4mpft in den Verbraucherpreisen an; Rohstoffanteil am Ladenpreis meist unter einem Viertel.", "source": "EZB Economic Bulletin 2023, Food-Price-Pass-through; Bundesbank Monatsbericht", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "fao_index", "dst": "hunger", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Importabh\u00e4ngige Niedrigeinkommensl\u00e4nder geben \u00fcber die H\u00e4lfte des Einkommens f\u00fcr Nahrung aus; Preisspitzen werden dort sofort zu Kaufkraftverlust \u2014 und 2008/2011 zu Unruhen.", "source": "FAO SOFI; Bellemare (2015), American Journal of Agricultural Economics", "status": "unbewertbar" } ], "calendar": [ { "key": "c3s_seasonal", "label": "Saisonprognose (Herbst/Winter Europa)", "who": "Copernicus C3S/ECMWF", "next": "2026-10-13", "days_until": 1, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "de_precip_12m" ], "url": "https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts" }, { "key": "sadc_rains", "label": "Beginn der Regenzeit, Mais-Aussaat s\u00fcdliches Afrika", "who": "SADC/SARCOF", "next": "2026-10-15", "days_until": 3, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "tropics_harvest" ], "url": "https://www.sadc.int/" }, { "key": "ifpri_tracker", "label": "Food Trade Policy Tracker (Exportsperren)", "who": "IFPRI", "next": "2026-10-15", "days_until": 3, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "wheat", "rice" ], "url": "https://www.ifpri.org/project/food-and-fertilizer-export-restrictions-tracker" }, { "key": "jrc_mars", "label": "MARS Bulletin \u2014 EU-Ertragsprognose", "who": "JRC", "next": "2026-10-24", "days_until": 12, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "eu_harvest" ], "url": "https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/monitoring-agricultural-resources-mars_en" }, { "key": "cec_za", "label": "Anbauabsichten Sommerkulturen S\u00fcdafrika", "who": "Crop Estimates Committee", "next": "2026-10-27", "days_until": 15, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "tropics_harvest" ], "url": "https://www.sagis.org.za/" }, { "key": "dwd_month", "label": "Monatsbilanz und Gebietsmittel", "who": "DWD", "next": "2026-11-03", "days_until": 22, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "de_precip_12m", "de_precip_36m", "de_soil_moisture" ], "url": "https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressemitteilungen_node.html" }, { "key": "wb_cmo", "label": "Pink Sheet \u2014 Rohstoffpreise, D\u00fcnger", "who": "Weltbank", "next": "2026-11-03", "days_until": 22, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "fertilizer_ppi", "gas_eu" ], "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" }, { "key": "fao_ffpi", "label": "FAO Food Price Index", "who": "FAO", "next": "2026-11-06", "days_until": 25, "approx": false, "feeds": [ "fao_cereals", "fao_index" ], "url": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" }, { "key": "wasde", "label": "WASDE \u2014 Weltbilanzen, Stocks-to-Use", "who": "USDA", "next": "2026-11-11", "days_until": 30, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "stocks", "wheat", "maize" ], "url": "https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde" }, { "key": "cpc_enso", "label": "ENSO-Diagnose (El-Ni\u00f1o-Status, Prognose)", "who": "NOAA/CPC", "next": "2026-11-12", "days_until": 31, "approx": false, "feeds": [ "enso_oni", "nino34_weekly" ], "url": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/" }, { "key": "hunger_hotspots", "label": "Hunger Hotspots (Ausblick bis Mai 2027)", "who": "FAO/WFP", "next": "2026-11-15", "days_until": 34, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "hunger" ], "url": "https://www.wfp.org/publications/hunger-hotspots" } ], "baseline": { "date": "2026-09-01", "summary": "Tiefen- und Grundwasserd\u00fcrre in Mitteleuropa (DE \u2248 25 Mrd. t Wasserdefizit), Sommerkulturen regional verloren (FR Mais \u221234 %), Wintergetreide EU auf F\u00fcnfjahresniveau, Weltlager voll (Weizen S/U 33 %), Verbraucherpreise Nahrung DE +0,1 %. Offen: Winterregen Europa, El-Ni\u00f1o-Peak Okt\u2013Jan in den Tropen." }, "n_nodes_hot": 12, "n_edges_tense": 7, "n_unobserved": 4, "failures": [], "method": "Monitore: Monatsmittel, deklarierte Transformationsrolle (Niveau, Jahresver\u00e4nderung oder Abweichung vom eigenen Monatsmittel), expandierendes Perzentil ohne Look-ahead, Burn-in 120 Monate. Momentanzeigen (Pegel, Wochen-Ni\u00f1o) tragen deklarierte Schwellen statt Perzentil; wo ein Jahresgang die Schwelle verzerren w\u00fcrde, kommt der Saisonrang hinzu \u2014 der Vergleich mit demselben Kalenderfenster aller Jahre der Reihe. Der FAO-Index-Knoten zeigt den S\u00e4ulen-Druckwert. Kantenstatus ist deskriptiv: \u201egespannt\u201c hei\u00dft, beide Enden stehen \u00fcber dem oberen Quartil ihrer Historie \u2014 nicht, dass \u00dcbertragung stattfindet. Der Kalender ist eine Terminliste, keine Prognose." }, "winter": { "note": "Knoten sind gemessen oder als unbeobachtet ausgewiesen; Kanten sind deklarierte Mechanismen aus Energiewirtschaft und Logistik mit Evidenzgrad, keine gesch\u00e4tzten Wirkungen. Die Bilanz ist Arithmetik mit offengelegten Konstanten: Sie misst den Puffer (Speicherbestand gegen gemessene Winterentnahmen), nicht die Versorgung \u2014 laufende Importe sind nicht enthalten. Kein Wert dieser Ebene flie\u00dft in Druck, Resilienz oder Spannung ein. Es gibt bewusst keine Winter-Kopfzahl: F\u00fcllstand, Tankerzahl und Dieselcrack sind keine addierbaren Gr\u00f6\u00dfen.", "contributes_to_headline": false, "grades": { "A": "Physikalisch, bilanziell oder definitorisch zwingend (Wasserbilanz, Indexkonstruktion, Kostenanteil).", "B": "In Ertrags-, Preis- oder D\u00fcrreepisoden empirisch dokumentiert (Attributionsstudien, 2007/08, 2015/16, 2018, 2022).", "C": "Plausibel und literaturgest\u00fctzt, aber episodisch d\u00fcnn belegt.", "D": "Theoretisch begr\u00fcndet, empirisch nicht quantifiziert." }, "groups": [ { "key": "speicher", "label": "Speicher und Einspeicherung", "n": 3, "n_hot": 0 }, { "key": "preis", "label": "Preis und Beschaffungsfenster", "n": 4, "n_hot": 4 }, { "key": "diesel", "label": "Mitteldestillate", "n": 2, "n_hot": 2 }, { "key": "wege", "label": "Seewege und Engstellen", "n": 6, "n_hot": 5 }, { "key": "haefen", "label": "Zielh\u00e4fen", "n": 3, "n_hot": 1 }, { "key": "strom", "label": "Stromsystem im Winter", "n": 3, "n_hot": 1 }, { "key": "kaelte", "label": "K\u00e4lte und Entnahme", "n": 2, "n_hot": 0 } ], "monitors": { "de_injection_season": { "key": "de_injection_season", "label": "Einspeicherung Deutschland, laufende Sommersaison", "unit": "Mio. m\u00b3", "group": "speicher", "group_label": "Speicher und Einspeicherung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Summe der monatlichen Bestandsver\u00e4nderungen von April bis zum letzten vorliegenden Monat, ein Punkt je Jahr ab 2014 \u2014 die eigentliche Bereitschaftsmessung, denn ein Speicher wird im Sommer gef\u00fcllt oder gar nicht. Wenig ist hier die Gefahr. Das Fenster ALLER Jahre wird auf die Monate gek\u00fcrzt, die im laufenden Jahr vorliegen; sonst st\u00fcnden vier Monate 2026 gegen sechs Monate 2019 und jeder Fr\u00fchsommer w\u00e4re ein Rekord. Die Reihe wird deshalb mit jedem neuen Datenmonat breiter.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_cb_gasm, Bestandsver\u00e4nderung (MOS GAS), monatlich ab 2014, rund zwei Monate Meldeverzug", "danger": "low", "mode": "track", "start": "2014-07-01", "n": 13, "raw": 5522.0, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 53.85, "status": "ruhig", "tau": -0.05, "trend": { "cadence": "annual", "cadence_label": "Jahre", "window": 8, "from": "2019-07-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 14.18, "run": 1, "change": 20.52, "move_pct": null, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2019-07-01", 33.33 ], [ "2020-07-01", 85.71 ], [ "2021-07-01", 62.5 ], [ "2022-07-01", 0.0 ], [ "2023-07-01", 70.0 ], [ "2024-07-01", 72.73 ], [ "2025-07-01", 41.67 ], [ "2026-07-01", 53.85 ] ] }, "eu_injection_season": { "key": "eu_injection_season", "label": "Einspeicherung EU, laufende Sommersaison", "unit": "Mio. m\u00b3", "group": "speicher", "group_label": "Speicher und Einspeicherung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Dieselbe Rechnung f\u00fcr das EU-Aggregat. Der Vergleich beider Reihen trennt ein deutsches Problem von einem europ\u00e4ischen: F\u00e4llt nur die deutsche Kurve, liegt es an Preisstruktur und Speicherumlage hier; fallen beide, ist es der Weltmarkt.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_cb_gasm, EU27 (2020), monatlich ab 2014", "danger": "low", "mode": "track", "start": "2014-07-01", "n": 12, "raw": 29566.0, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 58.33, "status": "ruhig", "tau": 0.0, "trend": null, "spark": [ [ "2019-07-01", 16.67 ], [ "2021-07-01", 71.43 ], [ "2022-07-01", 0.0 ], [ "2023-07-01", 55.56 ], [ "2024-07-01", 80.0 ], [ "2025-07-01", 45.45 ], [ "2026-07-01", 58.33 ] ] }, "de_import_cover": { "key": "de_import_cover", "label": "Importdeckung Deutschland (Einfuhr \u00f7 Inlandsverbrauch)", "unit": "\u00d7", "group": "speicher", "group_label": "Speicher und Einspeicherung", "decimals": 2, "note": "Deutschland f\u00f6rdert kaum Gas, also ist alles entweder Einfuhr, Speicher oder Ausfuhr. Ein Wert \u00fcber 1 hei\u00dft: es kommt mehr herein als verbraucht wird \u2014 der \u00dcberschuss geht in die Speicher oder weiter nach Osteuropa. Bewertet wird die Abweichung vom eigenen Monatsmittel, weil das Verh\u00e4ltnis einen scharfen Jahresgang hat.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_cb_gasm, Einfuhr und Inlandsverbrauch, monatlich ab 2014", "danger": "low", "mode": "track", "start": "2014-01-01", "n": 151, "raw": 2.15, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "SEASONAL_ANOMALY", "tcode_label": "Abweichung vom eigenen Monatsmittel", "transformed": -0.25, "stress": 52.75, "status": "ruhig", "tau": -0.13, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.12, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -0.63, "run": 0, "change": 9.0, "move_pct": 28.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2021-12-01", 88.89 ], [ "2022-01-01", 59.46 ], [ "2022-02-01", 36.84 ], [ "2022-03-01", 41.03 ], [ "2022-04-01", 32.5 ], [ "2022-05-01", 2.44 ], [ "2022-06-01", 9.52 ], [ "2022-07-01", 18.6 ], [ "2022-08-01", 11.36 ], [ "2022-09-01", 95.56 ], [ "2022-10-01", 43.48 ], [ "2022-11-01", 72.34 ], [ "2022-12-01", 93.75 ], [ "2023-01-01", 89.8 ], [ "2023-02-01", 88.0 ], [ "2023-03-01", 96.08 ], [ "2023-04-01", 98.08 ], [ "2023-05-01", 90.57 ], [ "2023-06-01", 98.15 ], [ "2023-07-01", 92.73 ], [ "2023-08-01", 98.21 ], [ "2023-09-01", 98.25 ], [ "2023-10-01", 89.66 ], [ "2023-11-01", 79.66 ], [ "2023-12-01", 78.33 ], [ "2024-01-01", 78.69 ], [ "2024-02-01", 72.58 ], [ "2024-03-01", 88.89 ], [ "2024-04-01", 95.31 ], [ "2024-05-01", 96.92 ], [ "2024-06-01", 96.97 ], [ "2024-07-01", 88.06 ], [ "2024-08-01", 95.59 ], [ "2024-09-01", 97.1 ], [ "2024-10-01", 84.29 ], [ "2024-11-01", 81.69 ], [ "2024-12-01", 81.94 ], [ "2025-01-01", 69.86 ], [ "2025-02-01", 83.78 ], [ "2025-03-01", 66.67 ], [ "2025-04-01", 61.84 ], [ "2025-05-01", 57.14 ], [ "2025-06-01", 28.21 ], [ "2025-07-01", 10.13 ], [ "2025-08-01", 43.75 ], [ "2025-09-01", 54.32 ], [ "2025-10-01", 84.15 ], [ "2025-11-01", 57.83 ], [ "2025-12-01", 57.14 ], [ "2026-01-01", 58.82 ], [ "2026-02-01", 54.65 ], [ "2026-03-01", 41.38 ], [ "2026-04-01", 68.18 ], [ "2026-05-01", 74.16 ], [ "2026-06-01", 61.11 ], [ "2026-07-01", 52.75 ] ] }, "ttf_gas": { "key": "ttf_gas", "label": "Erdgaspreis Europa (TTF)", "unit": "$/MMBtu", "group": "preis", "group_label": "Preis und Beschaffungsfenster", "decimals": 2, "note": "Der Weltbank-/IWF-Monatspreis f\u00fcr den niederl\u00e4ndischen TTF-Hub, die Referenz f\u00fcr europ\u00e4isches Gas, in Dollar je Million Btu. Reihe ab 1992 \u2014 die Einordnung reicht damit \u00fcber zwei Preisregime (\u00d6lbindung, Hubpreise) und die Krise 2022.", "source": "FRED PNGASEUUSDM (Weltbank Pink Sheet), monatlich ab 1992", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1992-01-01", "n": 415, "raw": 17.93, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 95.9, "status": "aktiv", "tau": -0.3, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.55, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 12.92, "run": 1, "change": 14.71, "move_pct": 71.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2001-12-01", 83.33 ], [ "2002-02-01", 75.41 ], [ "2002-04-01", 46.77 ], [ "2002-06-01", 47.62 ], [ "2002-08-01", 41.41 ], [ "2002-10-01", 74.62 ], [ "2002-12-01", 77.27 ], [ "2003-02-01", 84.33 ], [ "2003-04-01", 88.97 ], [ "2003-06-01", 89.13 ], [ "2003-08-01", 91.43 ], [ "2003-10-01", 89.44 ], [ "2003-12-01", 89.58 ], [ "2004-02-01", 83.56 ], [ "2004-04-01", 83.78 ], [ "2004-06-01", 84.0 ], [ "2004-08-01", 94.08 ], [ "2004-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2004-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2007-02-01", 96.7 ], [ "2007-04-01", 93.48 ], [ "2007-06-01", 93.55 ], [ "2007-08-01", 92.02 ], [ "2007-10-01", 98.42 ], [ "2007-12-01", 98.44 ], [ "2008-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2009-02-01", 98.06 ], [ "2009-04-01", 91.35 ], [ "2009-06-01", 91.43 ], [ "2009-08-01", 78.3 ], [ "2009-10-01", 78.5 ], [ "2009-12-01", 78.7 ], [ "2010-02-01", 80.73 ], [ "2010-04-01", 86.36 ], [ "2010-06-01", 84.68 ], [ "2010-08-01", 90.62 ], [ "2010-10-01", 92.04 ], [ "2010-12-01", 93.42 ], [ "2011-02-01", 93.04 ], [ "2011-04-01", 93.53 ], [ "2011-06-01", 92.74 ], [ "2011-08-01", 94.49 ], [ "2011-10-01", 96.64 ], [ "2011-12-01", 96.67 ], [ "2012-02-01", 96.28 ], [ "2012-04-01", 96.72 ], [ "2012-06-01", 95.93 ], [ "2012-08-01", 91.53 ], [ "2012-10-01", 92.0 ], [ "2012-12-01", 92.06 ], [ "2013-02-01", 88.98 ], [ "2013-04-01", 92.19 ], [ "2013-06-01", 87.6 ], [ "2013-08-01", 85.77 ], [ "2013-10-01", 85.11 ], [ "2013-12-01", 86.36 ], [ "2014-02-01", 83.83 ], [ "2014-04-01", 83.58 ], [ "2014-06-01", 82.59 ], [ "2014-08-01", 82.35 ], [ "2014-10-01", 82.48 ], [ "2014-12-01", 82.61 ], [ "2015-02-01", 78.06 ], [ "2015-04-01", 62.5 ], [ "2015-06-01", 62.06 ], [ "2015-08-01", 60.21 ], [ "2015-10-01", 56.99 ], [ "2015-12-01", 56.6 ], [ "2016-02-01", 54.14 ], [ "2016-04-01", 50.68 ], [ "2016-06-01", 51.02 ], [ "2016-08-01", 52.36 ], [ "2016-10-01", 50.34 ], [ "2016-12-01", 57.0 ], [ "2017-02-01", 58.94 ], [ "2017-04-01", 55.26 ], [ "2017-06-01", 54.9 ], [ "2017-08-01", 58.44 ], [ "2017-10-01", 59.03 ], [ "2017-12-01", 65.38 ], [ "2018-02-01", 70.38 ], [ "2018-04-01", 64.87 ], [ "2018-06-01", 66.35 ], [ "2018-08-01", 71.25 ], [ "2018-10-01", 76.4 ], [ "2018-12-01", 70.06 ], [ "2019-02-01", 56.44 ], [ "2019-04-01", 51.22 ], [ "2019-06-01", 38.48 ], [ "2019-08-01", 36.45 ], [ "2019-10-01", 36.83 ], [ "2019-12-01", 48.21 ], [ "2020-02-01", 31.95 ], [ "2020-04-01", 4.71 ], [ "2020-06-01", 0.58 ], [ "2020-08-01", 22.38 ], [ "2020-10-01", 53.18 ], [ "2020-12-01", 58.33 ], [ "2021-02-01", 60.86 ], [ "2021-04-01", 66.19 ], [ "2021-06-01", 85.31 ], [ "2021-08-01", 98.88 ], [ "2021-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2021-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-02-01", 98.9 ], [ "2022-04-01", 99.45 ], [ "2022-06-01", 99.45 ], [ "2022-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-10-01", 96.49 ], [ "2022-12-01", 98.66 ], [ "2023-02-01", 95.45 ], [ "2023-04-01", 92.55 ], [ "2023-06-01", 80.16 ], [ "2023-08-01", 82.37 ], [ "2023-10-01", 92.41 ], [ "2023-12-01", 84.9 ], [ "2024-02-01", 66.58 ], [ "2024-04-01", 74.74 ], [ "2024-06-01", 82.05 ], [ "2024-08-01", 90.31 ], [ "2024-10-01", 92.13 ], [ "2024-12-01", 92.68 ], [ "2025-02-01", 94.47 ], [ "2025-04-01", 86.25 ], [ "2025-06-01", 89.3 ], [ "2025-08-01", 81.19 ], [ "2025-10-01", 79.56 ], [ "2025-12-01", 72.55 ], [ "2026-02-01", 82.2 ], [ "2026-04-01", 94.42 ], [ "2026-06-01", 93.48 ], [ "2026-07-01", 95.9 ] ] }, "ttf_yoy": { "key": "ttf_yoy", "label": "Gaspreis Europa, Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "unit": "%", "group": "preis", "group_label": "Preis und Beschaffungsfenster", "decimals": 1, "note": "Dieselbe Reihe, andere Rolle: Nicht das Niveau entscheidet \u00fcber die Einspeicherung, sondern die Ver\u00e4nderung. Ein Sommerpreis, der den Winterpreis \u00fcberholt, macht das F\u00fcllen zum Verlustgesch\u00e4ft \u2014 das ist der Mechanismus hinter dem niedrigen F\u00fcllstand 2026, kein Mengenproblem.", "source": "FRED PNGASEUUSDM, Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1992-01-01", "n": 415, "raw": 17.9, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "CHANGE", "tcode_label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 2.84, "stress": 97.58, "status": "aktiv", "tau": -0.3, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 13.75, "run": 1, "change": 85.42, "move_pct": 87.7, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2002-01-01", 2.5 ], [ "2002-03-01", 82.79 ], [ "2002-05-01", 83.06 ], [ "2002-07-01", 15.87 ], [ "2002-09-01", 84.38 ], [ "2002-11-01", 82.31 ], [ "2003-01-01", 96.97 ], [ "2003-03-01", 83.58 ], [ "2003-05-01", 80.15 ], [ "2003-07-01", 83.33 ], [ "2003-09-01", 79.29 ], [ "2003-11-01", 79.58 ], [ "2004-01-01", 4.86 ], [ "2004-03-01", 80.14 ], [ "2004-05-01", 79.73 ], [ "2004-07-01", 96.0 ], [ "2004-09-01", 79.61 ], [ "2004-11-01", 79.22 ], [ "2005-01-01", 99.36 ], [ "2005-03-01", 79.11 ], [ "2005-05-01", 78.75 ], [ "2005-07-01", 98.77 ], [ "2005-09-01", 78.66 ], [ "2005-11-01", 78.31 ], [ "2006-01-01", 98.21 ], [ "2006-03-01", 78.24 ], [ "2006-05-01", 77.91 ], [ "2006-07-01", 90.8 ], [ "2006-09-01", 77.84 ], [ "2006-11-01", 77.53 ], [ "2007-01-01", 3.33 ], [ "2007-03-01", 78.02 ], [ "2007-05-01", 78.26 ], [ "2007-07-01", 12.9 ], [ "2007-09-01", 78.72 ], [ "2007-11-01", 78.42 ], [ "2008-01-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-03-01", 78.35 ], [ "2008-05-01", 78.06 ], [ "2008-07-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-09-01", 78.0 ], [ "2008-11-01", 77.72 ], [ "2009-01-01", 77.94 ], [ "2009-03-01", 0.49 ], [ "2009-05-01", 78.37 ], [ "2009-07-01", 1.43 ], [ "2009-09-01", 78.77 ], [ "2009-11-01", 78.5 ], [ "2010-01-01", 98.15 ], [ "2010-03-01", 78.44 ], [ "2010-05-01", 4.09 ], [ "2010-07-01", 93.24 ], [ "2010-09-01", 11.16 ], [ "2010-11-01", 82.74 ], [ "2011-01-01", 93.86 ], [ "2011-03-01", 15.22 ], [ "2011-05-01", 16.81 ], [ "2011-07-01", 98.29 ], [ "2011-09-01", 75.85 ], [ "2011-11-01", 10.5 ], [ "2012-01-01", 86.25 ], [ "2012-03-01", 88.43 ], [ "2012-05-01", 74.59 ], [ "2012-07-01", 2.03 ], [ "2012-09-01", 16.53 ], [ "2012-11-01", 81.2 ], [ "2013-01-01", 5.95 ], [ "2013-03-01", 74.41 ], [ "2013-05-01", 6.25 ], [ "2013-07-01", 4.65 ], [ "2013-09-01", 20.38 ], [ "2013-11-01", 77.86 ], [ "2014-01-01", 12.12 ], [ "2014-03-01", 8.65 ], [ "2014-05-01", 8.58 ], [ "2014-07-01", 2.22 ], [ "2014-09-01", 76.1 ], [ "2014-11-01", 6.57 ], [ "2015-01-01", 2.54 ], [ "2015-03-01", 74.1 ], [ "2015-05-01", 20.71 ], [ "2015-07-01", 3.19 ], [ "2015-09-01", 9.51 ], [ "2015-11-01", 11.54 ], [ "2016-01-01", 3.12 ], [ "2016-03-01", 3.45 ], [ "2016-05-01", 21.92 ], [ "2016-07-01", 88.78 ], [ "2016-09-01", 7.77 ], [ "2016-11-01", 94.63 ], [ "2017-01-01", 98.0 ], [ "2017-03-01", 2.32 ], [ "2017-05-01", 78.62 ], [ "2017-07-01", 84.64 ], [ "2017-09-01", 93.51 ], [ "2017-11-01", 96.45 ], [ "2018-01-01", 4.49 ], [ "2018-03-01", 94.27 ], [ "2018-05-01", 90.19 ], [ "2018-07-01", 83.02 ], [ "2018-09-01", 98.75 ], [ "2018-11-01", 7.14 ], [ "2019-01-01", 3.7 ], [ "2019-03-01", 3.99 ], [ "2019-05-01", 5.79 ], [ "2019-07-01", 82.73 ], [ "2019-09-01", 13.55 ], [ "2019-11-01", 98.8 ], [ "2020-01-01", 5.65 ], [ "2020-03-01", 13.91 ], [ "2020-05-01", 5.88 ], [ "2020-07-01", 30.41 ], [ "2020-09-01", 98.26 ], [ "2020-11-01", 24.86 ], [ "2021-01-01", 98.85 ], [ "2021-03-01", 74.57 ], [ "2021-05-01", 99.72 ], [ "2021-07-01", 99.72 ], [ "2021-09-01", 100.0 ], [ "2021-11-01", 0.84 ], [ "2022-01-01", 0.28 ], [ "2022-03-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-05-01", 0.82 ], [ "2022-07-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-09-01", 0.27 ], [ "2022-11-01", 98.92 ], [ "2023-01-01", 0.54 ], [ "2023-03-01", 2.67 ], [ "2023-05-01", 1.86 ], [ "2023-07-01", 8.2 ], [ "2023-09-01", 89.74 ], [ "2023-11-01", 83.77 ], [ "2024-01-01", 4.17 ], [ "2024-03-01", 85.75 ], [ "2024-05-01", 92.01 ], [ "2024-07-01", 10.51 ], [ "2024-09-01", 12.5 ], [ "2024-11-01", 92.64 ], [ "2025-01-01", 91.67 ], [ "2025-03-01", 3.52 ], [ "2025-05-01", 72.5 ], [ "2025-07-01", 7.71 ], [ "2025-09-01", 69.31 ], [ "2025-11-01", 11.58 ], [ "2026-01-01", 97.55 ], [ "2026-03-01", 98.05 ], [ "2026-05-01", 88.83 ], [ "2026-07-01", 97.58 ] ] }, "coal_price": { "key": "coal_price", "label": "Kohlepreis (Newcastle)", "unit": "$/t", "group": "preis", "group_label": "Preis und Beschaffungsfenster", "decimals": 1, "note": "Die R\u00fcckfallebene der Stromerzeugung. Solange Kohle billig ist, puffert sie einen Gaspreisschock im Kraftwerkspark ab; steigen beide zugleich, f\u00e4llt diese Ausweichm\u00f6glichkeit weg. Deshalb steht sie hier neben dem Gaspreis und nicht f\u00fcr sich.", "source": "FRED PCOALAUUSDM (Weltbank), monatlich ab 1970", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1992-01-01", "n": 415, "raw": 140.4, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 88.92, "status": "erhoeht", "tau": -0.53, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-08-01", "to": "2026-07-01", "tau": 0.67, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 7.53, "run": 0, "change": 6.49, "move_pct": 49.8, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2001-12-01", 24.17 ], [ "2002-02-01", 27.87 ], [ "2002-04-01", 24.19 ], [ "2002-06-01", 19.05 ], [ "2002-08-01", 0.78 ], [ "2002-10-01", 20.77 ], [ "2002-12-01", 21.97 ], [ "2003-02-01", 23.88 ], [ "2003-04-01", 7.35 ], [ "2003-06-01", 12.32 ], [ "2003-08-01", 28.57 ], [ "2003-10-01", 35.21 ], [ "2003-12-01", 75.69 ], [ "2004-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2004-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2004-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2004-08-01", 98.68 ], [ "2004-10-01", 98.05 ], [ "2004-12-01", 94.87 ], [ "2005-02-01", 93.67 ], [ "2005-04-01", 93.75 ], [ "2005-06-01", 92.59 ], [ "2005-08-01", 89.63 ], [ "2005-10-01", 87.95 ], [ "2005-12-01", 87.5 ], [ "2006-02-01", 90.0 ], [ "2006-04-01", 94.77 ], [ "2006-06-01", 92.53 ], [ "2006-08-01", 92.61 ], [ "2006-10-01", 84.83 ], [ "2006-12-01", 88.89 ], [ "2007-02-01", 93.41 ], [ "2007-04-01", 96.74 ], [ "2007-06-01", 98.39 ], [ "2007-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2007-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2007-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-04-01", 98.98 ], [ "2008-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-08-01", 99.5 ], [ "2008-10-01", 96.04 ], [ "2008-12-01", 93.63 ], [ "2009-02-01", 92.72 ], [ "2009-04-01", 90.38 ], [ "2009-06-01", 91.9 ], [ "2009-08-01", 91.98 ], [ "2009-10-01", 90.65 ], [ "2009-12-01", 93.98 ], [ "2010-02-01", 94.04 ], [ "2010-04-01", 95.91 ], [ "2010-06-01", 95.05 ], [ "2010-08-01", 91.52 ], [ "2010-10-01", 94.69 ], [ "2010-12-01", 96.49 ], [ "2011-02-01", 96.52 ], [ "2011-04-01", 95.26 ], [ "2011-06-01", 94.87 ], [ "2011-08-01", 93.64 ], [ "2011-10-01", 93.28 ], [ "2011-12-01", 91.25 ], [ "2012-02-01", 92.56 ], [ "2012-04-01", 89.34 ], [ "2012-06-01", 82.93 ], [ "2012-08-01", 83.47 ], [ "2012-10-01", 81.6 ], [ "2012-12-01", 83.73 ], [ "2013-02-01", 86.61 ], [ "2013-04-01", 82.03 ], [ "2013-06-01", 79.84 ], [ "2013-08-01", 76.92 ], [ "2013-10-01", 78.24 ], [ "2013-12-01", 79.92 ], [ "2014-02-01", 76.69 ], [ "2014-04-01", 73.88 ], [ "2014-06-01", 72.59 ], [ "2014-08-01", 71.32 ], [ "2014-10-01", 69.34 ], [ "2014-12-01", 68.84 ], [ "2015-02-01", 69.78 ], [ "2015-04-01", 65.36 ], [ "2015-06-01", 65.25 ], [ "2015-08-01", 65.49 ], [ "2015-10-01", 62.24 ], [ "2015-12-01", 59.03 ], [ "2016-02-01", 55.52 ], [ "2016-04-01", 56.85 ], [ "2016-06-01", 60.54 ], [ "2016-08-01", 71.62 ], [ "2016-10-01", 85.23 ], [ "2016-12-01", 83.33 ], [ "2017-02-01", 79.14 ], [ "2017-04-01", 81.58 ], [ "2017-06-01", 78.43 ], [ "2017-08-01", 88.96 ], [ "2017-10-01", 89.35 ], [ "2017-12-01", 90.71 ], [ "2018-02-01", 91.4 ], [ "2018-04-01", 85.13 ], [ "2018-06-01", 93.08 ], [ "2018-08-01", 93.44 ], [ "2018-10-01", 91.3 ], [ "2018-12-01", 88.27 ], [ "2019-02-01", 84.05 ], [ "2019-04-01", 75.61 ], [ "2019-06-01", 68.18 ], [ "2019-08-01", 63.55 ], [ "2019-10-01", 63.47 ], [ "2019-12-01", 63.99 ], [ "2020-02-01", 64.2 ], [ "2020-04-01", 59.12 ], [ "2020-06-01", 50.29 ], [ "2020-08-01", 45.35 ], [ "2020-10-01", 55.78 ], [ "2020-12-01", 71.55 ], [ "2021-02-01", 78.86 ], [ "2021-04-01", 82.39 ], [ "2021-06-01", 97.18 ], [ "2021-08-01", 99.72 ], [ "2021-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2021-12-01", 99.17 ], [ "2022-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-04-01", 99.73 ], [ "2022-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-10-01", 98.92 ], [ "2022-12-01", 99.19 ], [ "2023-02-01", 96.79 ], [ "2023-04-01", 96.01 ], [ "2023-06-01", 92.06 ], [ "2023-08-01", 92.89 ], [ "2023-10-01", 92.41 ], [ "2023-12-01", 92.19 ], [ "2024-02-01", 88.08 ], [ "2024-04-01", 89.95 ], [ "2024-06-01", 91.79 ], [ "2024-08-01", 92.6 ], [ "2024-10-01", 93.15 ], [ "2024-12-01", 89.14 ], [ "2025-02-01", 81.41 ], [ "2025-04-01", 75.0 ], [ "2025-06-01", 80.1 ], [ "2025-08-01", 82.43 ], [ "2025-10-01", 80.3 ], [ "2025-12-01", 81.86 ], [ "2026-02-01", 83.17 ], [ "2026-04-01", 90.78 ], [ "2026-06-01", 92.03 ], [ "2026-07-01", 88.92 ] ] }, "brent": { "key": "brent", "label": "Roh\u00f6l Brent", "unit": "$/bbl", "group": "preis", "group_label": "Preis und Beschaffungsfenster", "decimals": 2, "note": "Tagesreihe ab 1987, hier als Monatsmittel eingeordnet. Brent allein sagt \u00fcber Versorgung wenig \u2014 erst im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum Dieselpreis (n\u00e4chste Gruppe) trennt sich Roh\u00f6lknappheit von Raffinerieknappheit.", "source": "FRED DCOILBRENTEU (EIA), t\u00e4glich ab 1987", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1987-05-20", "n": 9102, "raw": 125.32, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 99.37, "status": "aktiv", "tau": -0.29, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.61, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 14.38, "run": 3, "change": 35.44, "move_pct": 93.6, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1997-04-01", 39.17 ], [ "1997-06-01", 42.62 ], [ "1997-08-01", 57.26 ], [ "1997-10-01", 80.95 ], [ "1997-12-01", 35.16 ], [ "1998-02-01", 5.38 ], [ "1998-04-01", 5.3 ], [ "1998-06-01", 0.75 ], [ "1998-08-01", 0.74 ], [ "1998-10-01", 3.62 ], [ "1998-12-01", 0.71 ], [ "1999-02-01", 1.41 ], [ "1999-04-01", 19.44 ], [ "1999-06-01", 26.03 ], [ "1999-08-01", 84.46 ], [ "1999-10-01", 91.33 ], [ "1999-12-01", 96.71 ], [ "2000-02-01", 97.4 ], [ "2000-04-01", 89.74 ], [ "2000-06-01", 98.1 ], [ "2000-08-01", 98.12 ], [ "2000-10-01", 97.53 ], [ "2000-12-01", 91.46 ], [ "2001-02-01", 92.17 ], [ "2001-04-01", 90.48 ], [ "2001-06-01", 92.94 ], [ "2001-08-01", 88.95 ], [ "2001-10-01", 75.29 ], [ "2001-12-01", 55.11 ], [ "2002-02-01", 71.91 ], [ "2002-04-01", 90.0 ], [ "2002-06-01", 83.52 ], [ "2002-08-01", 90.76 ], [ "2002-10-01", 91.94 ], [ "2002-12-01", 93.62 ], [ "2003-02-01", 97.37 ], [ "2003-04-01", 82.81 ], [ "2003-06-01", 89.18 ], [ "2003-08-01", 94.9 ], [ "2003-10-01", 93.94 ], [ "2003-12-01", 94.0 ], [ "2004-02-01", 96.04 ], [ "2004-04-01", 98.53 ], [ "2004-06-01", 99.03 ], [ "2004-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2004-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2004-12-01", 98.11 ], [ "2005-02-01", 99.53 ], [ "2005-04-01", 99.54 ], [ "2005-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-10-01", 99.1 ], [ "2005-12-01", 98.21 ], [ "2006-02-01", 98.67 ], [ "2006-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-06-01", 99.13 ], [ "2006-08-01", 99.57 ], [ "2006-10-01", 94.87 ], [ "2006-12-01", 96.61 ], [ "2007-02-01", 93.7 ], [ "2007-04-01", 97.92 ], [ "2007-06-01", 98.76 ], [ "2007-08-01", 97.95 ], [ "2007-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2007-12-01", 99.6 ], [ "2008-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-08-01", 98.83 ], [ "2008-10-01", 93.8 ], [ "2008-12-01", 80.38 ], [ "2009-02-01", 80.92 ], [ "2009-04-01", 83.33 ], [ "2009-06-01", 92.11 ], [ "2009-08-01", 94.03 ], [ "2009-10-01", 94.07 ], [ "2009-12-01", 94.49 ], [ "2010-02-01", 93.8 ], [ "2010-04-01", 96.01 ], [ "2010-06-01", 93.17 ], [ "2010-08-01", 94.64 ], [ "2010-10-01", 95.74 ], [ "2010-12-01", 96.48 ], [ "2011-02-01", 98.25 ], [ "2011-04-01", 99.31 ], [ "2011-06-01", 97.93 ], [ "2011-08-01", 96.92 ], [ "2011-10-01", 96.26 ], [ "2011-12-01", 95.27 ], [ "2012-02-01", 98.66 ], [ "2012-04-01", 98.33 ], [ "2012-06-01", 92.05 ], [ "2012-08-01", 96.38 ], [ "2012-10-01", 95.1 ], [ "2012-12-01", 93.18 ], [ "2013-02-01", 97.42 ], [ "2013-04-01", 90.06 ], [ "2013-06-01", 90.45 ], [ "2013-08-01", 94.3 ], [ "2013-10-01", 91.82 ], [ "2013-12-01", 93.44 ], [ "2014-02-01", 90.68 ], [ "2014-04-01", 88.89 ], [ "2014-06-01", 94.79 ], [ "2014-08-01", 85.67 ], [ "2014-10-01", 82.73 ], [ "2014-12-01", 71.69 ], [ "2015-02-01", 69.76 ], [ "2015-04-01", 70.54 ], [ "2015-06-01", 71.01 ], [ "2015-08-01", 63.82 ], [ "2015-10-01", 64.62 ], [ "2015-12-01", 60.17 ], [ "2016-02-01", 57.23 ], [ "2016-04-01", 61.49 ], [ "2016-06-01", 65.14 ], [ "2016-08-01", 63.64 ], [ "2016-10-01", 66.1 ], [ "2016-12-01", 67.42 ], [ "2017-02-01", 68.44 ], [ "2017-04-01", 66.39 ], [ "2017-06-01", 62.43 ], [ "2017-08-01", 66.48 ], [ "2017-10-01", 71.04 ], [ "2017-12-01", 75.54 ], [ "2018-02-01", 75.68 ], [ "2018-04-01", 78.76 ], [ "2018-06-01", 79.95 ], [ "2018-08-01", 78.46 ], [ "2018-10-01", 83.6 ], [ "2018-12-01", 67.89 ], [ "2019-02-01", 72.77 ], [ "2019-04-01", 77.08 ], [ "2019-06-01", 72.8 ], [ "2019-08-01", 68.56 ], [ "2019-10-01", 68.97 ], [ "2019-12-01", 75.0 ], [ "2020-02-01", 64.21 ], [ "2020-04-01", 21.72 ], [ "2020-06-01", 54.52 ], [ "2020-08-01", 57.0 ], [ "2020-10-01", 53.98 ], [ "2020-12-01", 61.39 ], [ "2021-02-01", 70.69 ], [ "2021-04-01", 74.51 ], [ "2021-06-01", 80.0 ], [ "2021-08-01", 77.18 ], [ "2021-10-01", 85.51 ], [ "2021-12-01", 80.05 ], [ "2022-02-01", 88.28 ], [ "2022-04-01", 90.0 ], [ "2022-06-01", 98.82 ], [ "2022-08-01", 87.5 ], [ "2022-10-01", 85.92 ], [ "2022-12-01", 82.24 ], [ "2023-02-01", 83.02 ], [ "2023-04-01", 83.56 ], [ "2023-06-01", 78.11 ], [ "2023-08-01", 84.17 ], [ "2023-10-01", 84.7 ], [ "2023-12-01", 79.55 ], [ "2024-02-01", 82.81 ], [ "2024-04-01", 84.68 ], [ "2024-06-01", 81.17 ], [ "2024-08-01", 79.91 ], [ "2024-10-01", 76.44 ], [ "2024-12-01", 73.67 ], [ "2025-02-01", 75.77 ], [ "2025-04-01", 68.64 ], [ "2025-06-01", 71.18 ], [ "2025-08-01", 68.26 ], [ "2025-10-01", 65.8 ], [ "2025-12-01", 62.5 ], [ "2026-02-01", 70.39 ], [ "2026-04-01", 98.29 ], [ "2026-06-01", 83.62 ], [ "2026-08-01", 85.38 ], [ "2026-10-01", 99.37 ] ] }, "diesel_crack": { "key": "diesel_crack", "label": "Dieselaufschlag \u00fcber Roh\u00f6l (Crack)", "unit": "$/bbl", "group": "diesel", "group_label": "Mitteldestillate", "decimals": 2, "note": "Dieselpreis je Gallone \u00d7 42 minus Brent je Barrel \u2014 die Spanne, die eine Raffinerie f\u00fcr die Umwandlung erh\u00e4lt. Sie ist das ehrlichste Knappheitsma\u00df der Mitteldestillate: Steigt sie, fehlt Raffineriekapazit\u00e4t oder Diesel selbst, unabh\u00e4ngig vom Roh\u00f6lpreis. Diesel tr\u00e4gt Landwirtschaft, Lastverkehr, Heiz\u00f6l und Notstrom \u2014 ein Dieselschock wandert in jeden dieser Preise, und das macht ihn systemisch gef\u00e4hrlicher als ein Gasschock.", "source": "FRED DDFUELNYH (Diesel NY Harbor) und DCOILBRENTEU, berechnet; 42 Gallonen je Barrel ist eine Definition", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "2006-06-14", "n": 5096, "raw": 71.71, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 97.55, "status": "aktiv", "tau": 0.03, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.64, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 6.11, "run": 0, "change": 2.68, "move_pct": 6.1, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2016-05-01", 21.67 ], [ "2016-06-01", 32.23 ], [ "2016-07-01", 20.49 ], [ "2016-08-01", 22.76 ], [ "2016-09-01", 23.39 ], [ "2016-10-01", 44.8 ], [ "2016-11-01", 51.59 ], [ "2016-12-01", 40.94 ], [ "2017-01-01", 25.0 ], [ "2017-02-01", 26.36 ], [ "2017-03-01", 20.77 ], [ "2017-04-01", 34.35 ], [ "2017-05-01", 25.0 ], [ "2017-06-01", 23.31 ], [ "2017-07-01", 45.52 ], [ "2017-08-01", 55.56 ], [ "2017-09-01", 74.26 ], [ "2017-10-01", 64.96 ], [ "2017-11-01", 61.59 ], [ "2017-12-01", 56.83 ], [ "2018-01-01", 65.71 ], [ "2018-02-01", 46.81 ], [ "2018-03-01", 38.73 ], [ "2018-04-01", 40.56 ], [ "2018-05-01", 55.56 ], [ "2018-06-01", 44.14 ], [ "2018-07-01", 43.84 ], [ "2018-08-01", 63.95 ], [ "2018-09-01", 42.57 ], [ "2018-10-01", 56.38 ], [ "2018-11-01", 86.0 ], [ "2018-12-01", 78.15 ], [ "2019-01-01", 69.74 ], [ "2019-02-01", 67.97 ], [ "2019-03-01", 59.09 ], [ "2019-04-01", 38.06 ], [ "2019-05-01", 29.49 ], [ "2019-06-01", 22.29 ], [ "2019-07-01", 52.53 ], [ "2019-08-01", 61.01 ], [ "2019-09-01", 70.0 ], [ "2019-10-01", 88.2 ], [ "2019-11-01", 66.05 ], [ "2019-12-01", 46.63 ], [ "2020-01-01", 28.66 ], [ "2020-02-01", 15.76 ], [ "2020-03-01", 64.46 ], [ "2020-04-01", 68.86 ], [ "2020-05-01", 3.57 ], [ "2020-06-01", 1.18 ], [ "2020-07-01", 5.88 ], [ "2020-08-01", 1.17 ], [ "2020-09-01", 0.58 ], [ "2020-10-01", 5.78 ], [ "2020-11-01", 8.62 ], [ "2020-12-01", 11.43 ], [ "2021-01-01", 14.77 ], [ "2021-02-01", 22.03 ], [ "2021-03-01", 18.54 ], [ "2021-04-01", 29.05 ], [ "2021-05-01", 52.22 ], [ "2021-06-01", 46.96 ], [ "2021-07-01", 35.16 ], [ "2021-08-01", 48.63 ], [ "2021-09-01", 65.76 ], [ "2021-10-01", 90.27 ], [ "2021-11-01", 79.03 ], [ "2021-12-01", 84.49 ], [ "2022-01-01", 93.09 ], [ "2022-02-01", 93.12 ], [ "2022-03-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-05-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-06-01", 98.96 ], [ "2022-07-01", 98.45 ], [ "2022-08-01", 98.46 ], [ "2022-09-01", 98.47 ], [ "2022-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-11-01", 98.99 ], [ "2022-12-01", 96.48 ], [ "2023-01-01", 97.0 ], [ "2023-02-01", 94.03 ], [ "2023-03-01", 94.06 ], [ "2023-04-01", 87.19 ], [ "2023-05-01", 85.29 ], [ "2023-06-01", 89.76 ], [ "2023-07-01", 92.23 ], [ "2023-08-01", 95.65 ], [ "2023-09-01", 95.67 ], [ "2023-10-01", 93.78 ], [ "2023-11-01", 93.33 ], [ "2023-12-01", 90.52 ], [ "2024-01-01", 90.09 ], [ "2024-02-01", 91.08 ], [ "2024-03-01", 85.98 ], [ "2024-04-01", 74.88 ], [ "2024-05-01", 75.46 ], [ "2024-06-01", 72.35 ], [ "2024-07-01", 66.51 ], [ "2024-08-01", 34.7 ], [ "2024-09-01", 32.73 ], [ "2024-10-01", 54.3 ], [ "2024-11-01", 68.47 ], [ "2024-12-01", 63.23 ], [ "2025-01-01", 85.27 ], [ "2025-02-01", 87.56 ], [ "2025-03-01", 77.88 ], [ "2025-04-01", 77.09 ], [ "2025-05-01", 81.58 ], [ "2025-06-01", 84.72 ], [ "2025-07-01", 90.0 ], [ "2025-08-01", 88.31 ], [ "2025-09-01", 90.09 ], [ "2025-10-01", 91.85 ], [ "2025-11-01", 94.87 ], [ "2025-12-01", 88.94 ], [ "2026-01-01", 84.75 ], [ "2026-02-01", 91.56 ], [ "2026-03-01", 98.32 ], [ "2026-04-01", 95.82 ], [ "2026-05-01", 97.5 ], [ "2026-06-01", 97.1 ], [ "2026-07-01", 99.17 ], [ "2026-08-01", 99.59 ], [ "2026-09-01", 100.0 ], [ "2026-10-01", 97.55 ] ] }, "diesel_price": { "key": "diesel_price", "label": "Dieselpreis (NY Harbor, Spot)", "unit": "$/gal", "group": "diesel", "group_label": "Mitteldestillate", "decimals": 3, "note": "Der Weltreferenzpreis f\u00fcr Mitteldestillate am liquidesten Spotmarkt. Europ\u00e4ischer Diesel (ARA-Barge) hat keinen keylosen Endpunkt; die Reihen laufen historisch eng, die Differenz wandert in die Frachtrate.", "source": "FRED DDFUELNYH (EIA), t\u00e4glich ab 1986", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "2006-06-14", "n": 5096, "raw": 4.691, "as_of": "2026-10-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 99.59, "status": "aktiv", "tau": -0.17, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-11-01", "to": "2026-10-01", "tau": 0.61, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 25.6, "run": 0, "change": 35.06, "move_pct": 74.8, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "2016-05-01", 7.5 ], [ "2016-06-01", 10.74 ], [ "2016-07-01", 6.56 ], [ "2016-08-01", 7.32 ], [ "2016-09-01", 8.87 ], [ "2016-10-01", 16.8 ], [ "2016-11-01", 11.9 ], [ "2016-12-01", 18.9 ], [ "2017-01-01", 17.97 ], [ "2017-02-01", 18.6 ], [ "2017-03-01", 16.92 ], [ "2017-04-01", 18.32 ], [ "2017-05-01", 14.39 ], [ "2017-06-01", 8.27 ], [ "2017-07-01", 17.91 ], [ "2017-08-01", 22.96 ], [ "2017-09-01", 27.21 ], [ "2017-10-01", 29.2 ], [ "2017-11-01", 35.51 ], [ "2017-12-01", 37.41 ], [ "2018-01-01", 45.71 ], [ "2018-02-01", 36.88 ], [ "2018-03-01", 35.92 ], [ "2018-04-01", 46.85 ], [ "2018-05-01", 54.17 ], [ "2018-06-01", 51.03 ], [ "2018-07-01", 50.68 ], [ "2018-08-01", 52.38 ], [ "2018-09-01", 56.08 ], [ "2018-10-01", 58.39 ], [ "2018-11-01", 42.67 ], [ "2018-12-01", 28.48 ], [ "2019-01-01", 30.92 ], [ "2019-02-01", 37.25 ], [ "2019-03-01", 39.61 ], [ "2019-04-01", 44.52 ], [ "2019-05-01", 41.03 ], [ "2019-06-01", 29.94 ], [ "2019-07-01", 33.54 ], [ "2019-08-01", 28.3 ], [ "2019-09-01", 36.88 ], [ "2019-10-01", 36.02 ], [ "2019-11-01", 35.8 ], [ "2019-12-01", 41.1 ], [ "2020-01-01", 29.88 ], [ "2020-02-01", 17.58 ], [ "2020-03-01", 2.41 ], [ "2020-04-01", 0.6 ], [ "2020-05-01", 1.19 ], [ "2020-06-01", 2.96 ], [ "2020-07-01", 5.29 ], [ "2020-08-01", 5.26 ], [ "2020-09-01", 2.91 ], [ "2020-10-01", 4.62 ], [ "2020-11-01", 7.47 ], [ "2020-12-01", 13.71 ], [ "2021-01-01", 21.02 ], [ "2021-02-01", 27.68 ], [ "2021-03-01", 35.39 ], [ "2021-04-01", 36.87 ], [ "2021-05-01", 48.33 ], [ "2021-06-01", 56.91 ], [ "2021-07-01", 57.69 ], [ "2021-08-01", 53.01 ], [ "2021-09-01", 61.96 ], [ "2021-10-01", 69.19 ], [ "2021-11-01", 66.67 ], [ "2021-12-01", 63.1 ], [ "2022-01-01", 70.74 ], [ "2022-02-01", 75.13 ], [ "2022-03-01", 98.42 ], [ "2022-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-05-01", 100.0 ], [ "2022-06-01", 99.48 ], [ "2022-07-01", 96.39 ], [ "2022-08-01", 95.9 ], [ "2022-09-01", 94.9 ], [ "2022-10-01", 98.98 ], [ "2022-11-01", 98.48 ], [ "2022-12-01", 86.43 ], [ "2023-01-01", 92.0 ], [ "2023-02-01", 69.65 ], [ "2023-03-01", 68.81 ], [ "2023-04-01", 65.52 ], [ "2023-05-01", 60.78 ], [ "2023-06-01", 63.41 ], [ "2023-07-01", 67.48 ], [ "2023-08-01", 85.51 ], [ "2023-09-01", 93.75 ], [ "2023-10-01", 84.69 ], [ "2023-11-01", 72.86 ], [ "2023-12-01", 65.4 ], [ "2024-01-01", 66.51 ], [ "2024-02-01", 68.54 ], [ "2024-03-01", 65.89 ], [ "2024-04-01", 63.72 ], [ "2024-05-01", 59.72 ], [ "2024-06-01", 59.45 ], [ "2024-07-01", 61.01 ], [ "2024-08-01", 54.79 ], [ "2024-09-01", 46.82 ], [ "2024-10-01", 52.49 ], [ "2024-11-01", 53.15 ], [ "2024-12-01", 52.02 ], [ "2025-01-01", 62.05 ], [ "2025-02-01", 61.33 ], [ "2025-03-01", 53.54 ], [ "2025-04-01", 47.58 ], [ "2025-05-01", 43.86 ], [ "2025-06-01", 55.9 ], [ "2025-07-01", 61.74 ], [ "2025-08-01", 57.14 ], [ "2025-09-01", 58.62 ], [ "2025-10-01", 57.51 ], [ "2025-11-01", 64.53 ], [ "2025-12-01", 54.04 ], [ "2026-01-01", 53.81 ], [ "2026-02-01", 64.14 ], [ "2026-03-01", 97.9 ], [ "2026-04-01", 97.91 ], [ "2026-05-01", 97.5 ], [ "2026-06-01", 93.36 ], [ "2026-07-01", 96.69 ], [ "2026-08-01", 98.77 ], [ "2026-09-01", 100.0 ], [ "2026-10-01", 99.59 ] ] }, "hormuz_transit": { "key": "hormuz_transit", "label": "Durchfahrten Stra\u00dfe von Hormus", "unit": "Schiffe/Tag", "group": "wege", "group_label": "Seewege und Engstellen", "decimals": 1, "note": "30-Tage-Mittel der t\u00e4glichen Schiffszahl aus AIS-Daten, gemessen gegen den eigenen Normalverkehr: Median der Jahre 2019\u20132023, also vor der Rotmeer-Umleitung und vor der Golf-Eskalation. Unter 80 % dieses Werts ist der Verkehr sichtbar gest\u00f6rt, unter 50 % findet keine regul\u00e4re Passage mehr statt. Durch Hormus laufen normalerweise etwa ein F\u00fcnftel des Welt\u00f6ls und ein F\u00fcnftel des LNG \u2014 es gibt keine Umfahrung, nur Pipelines mit einem Bruchteil der Kapazit\u00e4t.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), t\u00e4glich ab 1.1.2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2834, "ref": 83.2, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 0.043, "raw": 3.6, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "threshold": 41.6, "warn": 66.5, "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-07", 17.6 ], [ "2026-07-08", 18.0333 ], [ "2026-07-09", 18.2333 ], [ "2026-07-10", 18.3667 ], [ "2026-07-11", 18.5 ], [ "2026-07-12", 18.6 ], [ "2026-07-13", 18.9333 ], [ "2026-07-14", 19.2 ], [ "2026-07-15", 19.2667 ], [ "2026-07-16", 19.1333 ], [ "2026-07-17", 18.9 ], [ "2026-07-18", 18.4333 ], [ "2026-07-19", 18.2667 ], [ "2026-07-20", 17.6 ], [ "2026-07-21", 17.6 ], [ "2026-07-22", 17.2667 ], [ "2026-07-23", 16.3 ], [ "2026-07-24", 14.7 ], [ "2026-07-25", 13.2333 ], [ "2026-07-26", 12.3333 ], [ "2026-07-27", 11.6667 ], [ "2026-07-28", 11.3 ], [ "2026-07-29", 10.6667 ], [ "2026-07-30", 10.2667 ], [ "2026-07-31", 9.5667 ], [ "2026-08-01", 8.8 ], [ "2026-08-02", 8.1 ], [ "2026-08-03", 7.7333 ], [ "2026-08-04", 7.2333 ], [ "2026-08-05", 6.5667 ], [ "2026-08-06", 5.7667 ], [ "2026-08-07", 5.3 ], [ "2026-08-08", 5.3 ], [ "2026-08-09", 5.1667 ], [ "2026-08-10", 5.1 ], [ "2026-08-11", 5.2667 ], [ "2026-08-12", 5.0333 ], [ "2026-08-13", 4.9667 ], [ "2026-08-14", 4.9 ], [ "2026-08-15", 4.7333 ], [ "2026-08-16", 4.7333 ], [ "2026-08-17", 4.6667 ], [ "2026-08-18", 4.7333 ], [ "2026-08-19", 4.7667 ], [ "2026-08-20", 4.7333 ], [ "2026-08-21", 4.6667 ], [ "2026-08-22", 4.9 ], [ "2026-08-23", 4.9 ], [ "2026-08-24", 4.9333 ], [ "2026-08-25", 4.9667 ], [ "2026-08-26", 4.9667 ], [ "2026-08-27", 4.8667 ], [ "2026-08-28", 4.8667 ], [ "2026-08-29", 4.8333 ], [ "2026-08-30", 4.7667 ], [ "2026-08-31", 4.7 ], [ "2026-09-01", 4.7333 ], [ "2026-09-02", 4.6333 ], [ "2026-09-03", 4.4667 ], [ "2026-09-04", 4.3667 ], [ "2026-09-05", 4.3667 ], [ "2026-09-06", 4.3667 ], [ "2026-09-07", 4.2 ], [ "2026-09-08", 4.3 ], [ "2026-09-09", 4.2667 ], [ "2026-09-10", 4.1333 ], [ "2026-09-11", 4.3 ], [ "2026-09-12", 4.1667 ], [ "2026-09-13", 4.2 ], [ "2026-09-14", 4.2333 ], [ "2026-09-15", 4.2667 ], [ "2026-09-16", 4.1667 ], [ "2026-09-17", 4.0667 ], [ "2026-09-18", 4.1 ], [ "2026-09-19", 4.1333 ], [ "2026-09-20", 4.0333 ], [ "2026-09-21", 3.8667 ], [ "2026-09-22", 3.8667 ], [ "2026-09-23", 3.9 ], [ "2026-09-24", 3.9333 ], [ "2026-09-25", 3.8667 ], [ "2026-09-26", 3.9333 ], [ "2026-09-27", 3.7333 ], [ "2026-09-28", 3.7667 ], [ "2026-09-29", 3.6 ], [ "2026-09-30", 3.6333 ], [ "2026-10-01", 3.5 ], [ "2026-10-02", 3.5333 ], [ "2026-10-03", 3.5333 ], [ "2026-10-04", 3.6 ] ], "rank": 99.4, "trend_tau": 0.07, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.084, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-04", "tau": 0.26, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -0.82, "run": 6, "change": -0.43, "move_pct": 1.1, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "hormuz_tanker": { "key": "hormuz_tanker", "label": "Tankerdurchfahrten Hormus", "unit": "Tanker/Tag", "group": "wege", "group_label": "Seewege und Engstellen", "decimals": 1, "note": "Nur die Tanker \u2014 der energierelevante Teil. Getrennt ausgewiesen, weil St\u00fcckgut und Tanker auf St\u00f6rungen unterschiedlich reagieren: Container weichen aus, Tanker haben oft keine Alternativroute zum Verladehafen.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), Feld n_tanker, t\u00e4glich ab 2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2834, "ref": 50.7, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 0.02, "raw": 1.0, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "threshold": 25.3, "warn": 40.5, "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-07", 8.4667 ], [ "2026-07-08", 8.7 ], [ "2026-07-09", 8.7333 ], [ "2026-07-10", 8.8667 ], [ "2026-07-11", 8.9 ], [ "2026-07-12", 8.9 ], [ "2026-07-13", 8.9667 ], [ "2026-07-14", 9.1333 ], [ "2026-07-15", 9.1667 ], [ "2026-07-16", 9.1 ], [ "2026-07-17", 9.1333 ], [ "2026-07-18", 8.8667 ], [ "2026-07-19", 8.8333 ], [ "2026-07-20", 8.5 ], [ "2026-07-21", 8.5 ], [ "2026-07-22", 8.1333 ], [ "2026-07-23", 7.7333 ], [ "2026-07-24", 7.0667 ], [ "2026-07-25", 6.3667 ], [ "2026-07-26", 5.8667 ], [ "2026-07-27", 5.5667 ], [ "2026-07-28", 5.3667 ], [ "2026-07-29", 5.0333 ], [ "2026-07-30", 4.8667 ], [ "2026-07-31", 4.3333 ], [ "2026-08-01", 3.9333 ], [ "2026-08-02", 3.3667 ], [ "2026-08-03", 3.2 ], [ "2026-08-04", 2.8 ], [ "2026-08-05", 2.2667 ], [ "2026-08-06", 1.9333 ], [ "2026-08-07", 1.8 ], [ "2026-08-08", 1.7667 ], [ "2026-08-09", 1.6333 ], [ "2026-08-10", 1.6 ], [ "2026-08-11", 1.6333 ], [ "2026-08-12", 1.6 ], [ "2026-08-13", 1.5 ], [ "2026-08-14", 1.4667 ], [ "2026-08-15", 1.4667 ], [ "2026-08-16", 1.4667 ], [ "2026-08-17", 1.5 ], [ "2026-08-18", 1.5667 ], [ "2026-08-19", 1.6333 ], [ "2026-08-20", 1.6667 ], [ "2026-08-21", 1.7 ], [ "2026-08-22", 1.7333 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1.7667 ], [ "2026-08-24", 1.8333 ], [ "2026-08-25", 1.9 ], [ "2026-08-26", 1.9667 ], [ "2026-08-27", 2.0 ], [ "2026-08-28", 1.9 ], [ "2026-08-29", 1.9 ], [ "2026-08-30", 1.9 ], [ "2026-08-31", 1.8333 ], [ "2026-09-01", 1.8667 ], [ "2026-09-02", 1.8 ], [ "2026-09-03", 1.7 ], [ "2026-09-04", 1.7 ], [ "2026-09-05", 1.7 ], [ "2026-09-06", 1.6333 ], [ "2026-09-07", 1.6333 ], [ "2026-09-08", 1.7 ], [ "2026-09-09", 1.6333 ], [ "2026-09-10", 1.6 ], [ "2026-09-11", 1.6667 ], [ "2026-09-12", 1.6333 ], [ "2026-09-13", 1.6 ], [ "2026-09-14", 1.5667 ], [ "2026-09-15", 1.5667 ], [ "2026-09-16", 1.4667 ], [ "2026-09-17", 1.3333 ], [ "2026-09-18", 1.2667 ], [ "2026-09-19", 1.2333 ], [ "2026-09-20", 1.1667 ], [ "2026-09-21", 1.1333 ], [ "2026-09-22", 1.1333 ], [ "2026-09-23", 1.1 ], [ "2026-09-24", 1.0667 ], [ "2026-09-25", 1.0667 ], [ "2026-09-26", 1.0333 ], [ "2026-09-27", 1.0667 ], [ "2026-09-28", 1.1 ], [ "2026-09-29", 1.0333 ], [ "2026-09-30", 1.1333 ], [ "2026-10-01", 1.1 ], [ "2026-10-02", 1.0667 ], [ "2026-10-03", 1.0333 ], [ "2026-10-04", 1.0333 ] ], "rank": 99.5, "trend_tau": 0.0, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.063, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-04", "tau": 0.22, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -0.41, "run": 5, "change": -0.33, "move_pct": 1.6, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "bab_el_mandeb": { "key": "bab_el_mandeb", "label": "Durchfahrten Bab el-Mandeb", "unit": "Schiffe/Tag", "group": "wege", "group_label": "Seewege und Engstellen", "decimals": 1, "note": "Das s\u00fcdliche Tor zum Roten Meer und damit zur Sumed-Leitung und zum Suezkanal. F\u00fcr Europa ist es die k\u00fcrzeste Verbindung in den Golf; f\u00e4llt es aus, bleibt der Weg um das Kap der Guten Hoffnung mit etwa zwei Wochen Mehrfahrzeit.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), t\u00e4glich ab 2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2834, "ref": 58.9, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 0.454, "raw": 26.7, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "threshold": 29.4, "warn": 47.1, "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-07", 35.3 ], [ "2026-07-08", 35.3333 ], [ "2026-07-09", 35.0333 ], [ "2026-07-10", 34.8667 ], [ "2026-07-11", 34.9667 ], [ "2026-07-12", 34.9667 ], [ "2026-07-13", 35.2333 ], [ "2026-07-14", 35.6667 ], [ "2026-07-15", 35.8333 ], [ "2026-07-16", 36.1 ], [ "2026-07-17", 36.2333 ], [ "2026-07-18", 36.2 ], [ "2026-07-19", 35.9333 ], [ "2026-07-20", 35.8 ], [ "2026-07-21", 35.4333 ], [ "2026-07-22", 35.4667 ], [ "2026-07-23", 35.6 ], [ "2026-07-24", 35.3667 ], [ "2026-07-25", 34.5667 ], [ "2026-07-26", 34.0333 ], [ "2026-07-27", 34.0333 ], [ "2026-07-28", 33.9 ], [ "2026-07-29", 33.8333 ], [ "2026-07-30", 33.8333 ], [ "2026-07-31", 33.7 ], [ "2026-08-01", 33.0667 ], [ "2026-08-02", 33.0333 ], [ "2026-08-03", 32.5667 ], [ "2026-08-04", 32.3333 ], [ "2026-08-05", 31.8333 ], [ "2026-08-06", 31.9667 ], [ "2026-08-07", 31.9 ], [ "2026-08-08", 31.7667 ], [ "2026-08-09", 32.0 ], [ "2026-08-10", 31.5 ], [ "2026-08-11", 30.9667 ], [ "2026-08-12", 30.2667 ], [ "2026-08-13", 29.4 ], [ "2026-08-14", 29.1 ], [ "2026-08-15", 29.3333 ], [ "2026-08-16", 29.0 ], [ "2026-08-17", 28.6333 ], [ "2026-08-18", 28.6 ], [ "2026-08-19", 28.5333 ], [ "2026-08-20", 28.6333 ], [ "2026-08-21", 28.3 ], [ "2026-08-22", 28.2667 ], [ "2026-08-23", 28.2333 ], [ "2026-08-24", 28.7 ], [ "2026-08-25", 28.8667 ], [ "2026-08-26", 28.6667 ], [ "2026-08-27", 28.2667 ], [ "2026-08-28", 28.0333 ], [ "2026-08-29", 27.4333 ], [ "2026-08-30", 27.4667 ], [ "2026-08-31", 27.6 ], [ "2026-09-01", 27.2333 ], [ "2026-09-02", 27.9333 ], [ "2026-09-03", 27.8333 ], [ "2026-09-04", 28.4333 ], [ "2026-09-05", 28.0 ], [ "2026-09-06", 27.7667 ], [ "2026-09-07", 28.0667 ], [ "2026-09-08", 27.6667 ], [ "2026-09-09", 27.8667 ], [ "2026-09-10", 27.9333 ], [ "2026-09-11", 27.8333 ], [ "2026-09-12", 27.8333 ], [ "2026-09-13", 27.8333 ], [ "2026-09-14", 27.3333 ], [ "2026-09-15", 26.9333 ], [ "2026-09-16", 26.6 ], [ "2026-09-17", 26.4333 ], [ "2026-09-18", 26.2333 ], [ "2026-09-19", 26.1 ], [ "2026-09-20", 26.2667 ], [ "2026-09-21", 26.0667 ], [ "2026-09-22", 25.8333 ], [ "2026-09-23", 25.4667 ], [ "2026-09-24", 25.6667 ], [ "2026-09-25", 25.7667 ], [ "2026-09-26", 26.0333 ], [ "2026-09-27", 26.0333 ], [ "2026-09-28", 26.3667 ], [ "2026-09-29", 26.6333 ], [ "2026-09-30", 26.5667 ], [ "2026-10-01", 26.8667 ], [ "2026-10-02", 26.4667 ], [ "2026-10-03", 26.6667 ], [ "2026-10-04", 26.7333 ] ], "rank": 99.4, "trend_tau": -0.14, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.917, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-04", "tau": 0.76, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": 6.55, "run": 0, "change": -10.1, "move_pct": 92.1, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "suez_transit": { "key": "suez_transit", "label": "Durchfahrten Suezkanal", "unit": "Schiffe/Tag", "group": "wege", "group_label": "Seewege und Engstellen", "decimals": 1, "note": "Der Kanal selbst. Er ist nicht blockiert, sondern gemieden \u2014 die Zahl misst Risikoentscheidungen von Reedereien, nicht die Kapazit\u00e4t des Bauwerks.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), t\u00e4glich ab 2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2834, "ref": 58.0, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 0.697, "raw": 40.4, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "threshold": 29.0, "warn": 46.4, "stress": null, "status": "erhoeht", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-07", 40.4667 ], [ "2026-07-08", 40.3 ], [ "2026-07-09", 40.0 ], [ "2026-07-10", 40.1667 ], [ "2026-07-11", 40.5667 ], [ "2026-07-12", 40.9 ], [ "2026-07-13", 41.0 ], [ "2026-07-14", 40.8 ], [ "2026-07-15", 40.9 ], [ "2026-07-16", 41.4667 ], [ "2026-07-17", 41.9333 ], [ "2026-07-18", 42.2 ], [ "2026-07-19", 42.0667 ], [ "2026-07-20", 41.9 ], [ "2026-07-21", 41.6333 ], [ "2026-07-22", 41.7667 ], [ "2026-07-23", 41.7 ], [ "2026-07-24", 42.0 ], [ "2026-07-25", 41.5333 ], [ "2026-07-26", 41.4667 ], [ "2026-07-27", 41.8667 ], [ "2026-07-28", 41.8333 ], [ "2026-07-29", 42.0 ], [ "2026-07-30", 42.0 ], [ "2026-07-31", 42.1333 ], [ "2026-08-01", 42.0667 ], [ "2026-08-02", 41.4667 ], [ "2026-08-03", 41.5667 ], [ "2026-08-04", 41.2 ], [ "2026-08-05", 41.4333 ], [ "2026-08-06", 41.3667 ], [ "2026-08-07", 41.3333 ], [ "2026-08-08", 41.2667 ], [ "2026-08-09", 41.4 ], [ "2026-08-10", 41.2333 ], [ "2026-08-11", 41.8333 ], [ "2026-08-12", 41.3 ], [ "2026-08-13", 41.5 ], [ "2026-08-14", 41.4 ], [ "2026-08-15", 41.4 ], [ "2026-08-16", 41.3 ], [ "2026-08-17", 41.3 ], [ "2026-08-18", 41.1667 ], [ "2026-08-19", 41.4667 ], [ "2026-08-20", 41.2333 ], [ "2026-08-21", 41.6 ], [ "2026-08-22", 41.3667 ], [ "2026-08-23", 41.0667 ], [ "2026-08-24", 41.3667 ], [ "2026-08-25", 41.8333 ], [ "2026-08-26", 41.5 ], [ "2026-08-27", 41.1667 ], [ "2026-08-28", 41.1667 ], [ "2026-08-29", 40.8667 ], [ "2026-08-30", 41.3667 ], [ "2026-08-31", 40.9667 ], [ "2026-09-01", 41.6333 ], [ "2026-09-02", 41.5333 ], [ "2026-09-03", 41.7333 ], [ "2026-09-04", 42.1667 ], [ "2026-09-05", 42.2667 ], [ "2026-09-06", 41.8333 ], [ "2026-09-07", 41.9667 ], [ "2026-09-08", 41.8 ], [ "2026-09-09", 41.6 ], [ "2026-09-10", 40.9333 ], [ "2026-09-11", 41.6333 ], [ "2026-09-12", 41.6333 ], [ "2026-09-13", 41.0333 ], [ "2026-09-14", 41.4333 ], [ "2026-09-15", 41.1333 ], [ "2026-09-16", 40.8333 ], [ "2026-09-17", 40.7667 ], [ "2026-09-18", 40.9667 ], [ "2026-09-19", 41.3 ], [ "2026-09-20", 40.8667 ], [ "2026-09-21", 40.8333 ], [ "2026-09-22", 41.1667 ], [ "2026-09-23", 40.7 ], [ "2026-09-24", 40.3667 ], [ "2026-09-25", 40.2333 ], [ "2026-09-26", 40.7333 ], [ "2026-09-27", 40.6667 ], [ "2026-09-28", 40.3333 ], [ "2026-09-29", 39.9 ], [ "2026-09-30", 40.4 ], [ "2026-10-01", 40.5333 ], [ "2026-10-02", 40.5667 ], [ "2026-10-03", 40.7333 ], [ "2026-10-04", 40.4 ] ], "rank": 79.0, "trend_tau": -0.21, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 1.057, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-04", "tau": -0.07, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -0.74, "run": 4, "change": -1.2, "move_pct": 24.5, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "cape_reroute": { "key": "cape_reroute", "label": "Umleitungsquote Kap statt Suez", "unit": "Anteil", "group": "wege", "group_label": "Seewege und Engstellen", "decimals": 3, "note": "Kap der Guten Hoffnung geteilt durch die Summe beider Wege. Der eleganteste Indikator dieser Gruppe, weil er nicht von der Gesamtzahl der Schiffe abh\u00e4ngt, sondern nur von der Wahl: Er steigt genau dann, wenn umgeleitet wird, und f\u00e4llt, wenn Vertrauen zur\u00fcckkehrt. Jede Umleitung bindet Tonnage, verknappt Frachtraum und verl\u00e4ngert Lieferzeiten um zwei bis f\u00fcnf Wochen \u2014 bei Gas und Diesel hei\u00dft das: Ware ist vorhanden, aber nicht rechtzeitig da.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), berechnet aus zwei Tagesreihen", "danger": "high", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2834, "ref": 0.444, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 1.543, "raw": 0.684, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "threshold": 0.643, "warn": 0.532, "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-07", 0.6991 ], [ "2026-07-08", 0.6981 ], [ "2026-07-09", 0.6994 ], [ "2026-07-10", 0.6972 ], [ "2026-07-11", 0.6959 ], [ "2026-07-12", 0.6958 ], [ "2026-07-13", 0.697 ], [ "2026-07-14", 0.6978 ], [ "2026-07-15", 0.6966 ], [ "2026-07-16", 0.6935 ], [ "2026-07-17", 0.6916 ], [ "2026-07-18", 0.6895 ], [ "2026-07-19", 0.6898 ], [ "2026-07-20", 0.6893 ], [ "2026-07-21", 0.6897 ], [ "2026-07-22", 0.6883 ], [ "2026-07-23", 0.6889 ], [ "2026-07-24", 0.6876 ], [ "2026-07-25", 0.69 ], [ "2026-07-26", 0.6904 ], [ "2026-07-27", 0.6862 ], [ "2026-07-28", 0.6855 ], [ "2026-07-29", 0.6833 ], [ "2026-07-30", 0.683 ], [ "2026-07-31", 0.6842 ], [ "2026-08-01", 0.6834 ], [ "2026-08-02", 0.6862 ], [ "2026-08-03", 0.6868 ], [ "2026-08-04", 0.6866 ], [ "2026-08-05", 0.6857 ], [ "2026-08-06", 0.6851 ], [ "2026-08-07", 0.6858 ], [ "2026-08-08", 0.6862 ], [ "2026-08-09", 0.6851 ], [ "2026-08-10", 0.6853 ], [ "2026-08-11", 0.6826 ], [ "2026-08-12", 0.6826 ], [ "2026-08-13", 0.6802 ], [ "2026-08-14", 0.6802 ], [ "2026-08-15", 0.6825 ], [ "2026-08-16", 0.6838 ], [ "2026-08-17", 0.6838 ], [ "2026-08-18", 0.6836 ], [ "2026-08-19", 0.6839 ], [ "2026-08-20", 0.6856 ], [ "2026-08-21", 0.6832 ], [ "2026-08-22", 0.6847 ], [ "2026-08-23", 0.6865 ], [ "2026-08-24", 0.6857 ], [ "2026-08-25", 0.6828 ], [ "2026-08-26", 0.685 ], [ "2026-08-27", 0.6891 ], [ "2026-08-28", 0.6911 ], [ "2026-08-29", 0.6919 ], [ "2026-08-30", 0.6865 ], [ "2026-08-31", 0.6885 ], [ "2026-09-01", 0.6853 ], [ "2026-09-02", 0.6864 ], [ "2026-09-03", 0.6844 ], [ "2026-09-04", 0.6785 ], [ "2026-09-05", 0.6762 ], [ "2026-09-06", 0.6782 ], [ "2026-09-07", 0.6804 ], [ "2026-09-08", 0.6816 ], [ "2026-09-09", 0.6838 ], [ "2026-09-10", 0.6868 ], [ "2026-09-11", 0.6842 ], [ "2026-09-12", 0.6828 ], [ "2026-09-13", 0.686 ], [ "2026-09-14", 0.6822 ], [ "2026-09-15", 0.6839 ], [ "2026-09-16", 0.685 ], [ "2026-09-17", 0.6859 ], [ "2026-09-18", 0.6832 ], [ "2026-09-19", 0.6803 ], [ "2026-09-20", 0.6818 ], [ "2026-09-21", 0.681 ], [ "2026-09-22", 0.6787 ], [ "2026-09-23", 0.6804 ], [ "2026-09-24", 0.6829 ], [ "2026-09-25", 0.6853 ], [ "2026-09-26", 0.682 ], [ "2026-09-27", 0.6805 ], [ "2026-09-28", 0.6824 ], [ "2026-09-29", 0.6828 ], [ "2026-09-30", 0.6807 ], [ "2026-10-01", 0.6796 ], [ "2026-10-02", 0.6802 ], [ "2026-10-03", 0.6792 ], [ "2026-10-04", 0.6844 ] ], "rank": 73.6, "trend_tau": 0.29, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.965, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-04", "tau": -0.52, "direction": "abnehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": -0.01, "run": 1, "change": -0.0, "move_pct": 5.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "gibraltar_transit": { "key": "gibraltar_transit", "label": "Durchfahrten Stra\u00dfe von Gibraltar", "unit": "Schiffe/Tag", "group": "wege", "group_label": "Seewege und Engstellen", "decimals": 1, "note": "Europas westliches Tor \u2014 durch das l\u00e4uft, was nicht durch Suez kommt, einschlie\u00dflich des LNG aus den USA, Katar (\u00fcber das Kap) und Westafrika. Diese Reihe ist die Gegenprobe zur Umleitungsquote: Wenn dort Umleitung angezeigt wird und hier der Verkehr nicht zunimmt, kommt das \u00d6l nicht auf anderem Weg \u2014 es kommt nicht.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), t\u00e4glich ab 2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2834, "ref": 129.1, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 1.03, "raw": 133.0, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "threshold": 64.5, "warn": 103.3, "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-07", 133.7667 ], [ "2026-07-08", 133.3667 ], [ "2026-07-09", 133.2333 ], [ "2026-07-10", 133.3667 ], [ "2026-07-11", 132.3667 ], [ "2026-07-12", 133.1 ], [ "2026-07-13", 132.1 ], [ "2026-07-14", 132.5 ], [ "2026-07-15", 131.8333 ], [ "2026-07-16", 131.4333 ], [ "2026-07-17", 131.6 ], [ "2026-07-18", 130.9333 ], [ "2026-07-19", 130.5 ], [ "2026-07-20", 129.3667 ], [ "2026-07-21", 129.7 ], [ "2026-07-22", 129.2667 ], [ "2026-07-23", 129.1333 ], [ "2026-07-24", 128.8333 ], [ "2026-07-25", 129.5 ], [ "2026-07-26", 128.8333 ], [ "2026-07-27", 129.0 ], [ "2026-07-28", 129.1667 ], [ "2026-07-29", 128.3667 ], [ "2026-07-30", 128.0 ], [ "2026-07-31", 127.7333 ], [ "2026-08-01", 128.0333 ], [ "2026-08-02", 127.9333 ], [ "2026-08-03", 127.3333 ], [ "2026-08-04", 127.4 ], [ "2026-08-05", 128.0667 ], [ "2026-08-06", 127.9333 ], [ "2026-08-07", 128.6 ], [ "2026-08-08", 129.4 ], [ "2026-08-09", 128.6333 ], [ "2026-08-10", 128.8333 ], [ "2026-08-11", 128.3 ], [ "2026-08-12", 128.4 ], [ "2026-08-13", 128.8 ], [ "2026-08-14", 128.9333 ], [ "2026-08-15", 128.7667 ], [ "2026-08-16", 129.5 ], [ "2026-08-17", 129.8333 ], [ "2026-08-18", 129.9 ], [ "2026-08-19", 129.7 ], [ "2026-08-20", 129.4667 ], [ "2026-08-21", 128.8667 ], [ "2026-08-22", 128.7 ], [ "2026-08-23", 128.8 ], [ "2026-08-24", 128.7333 ], [ "2026-08-25", 129.0333 ], [ "2026-08-26", 128.3 ], [ "2026-08-27", 127.8333 ], [ "2026-08-28", 128.1333 ], [ "2026-08-29", 128.5 ], [ "2026-08-30", 128.4 ], [ "2026-08-31", 128.3667 ], [ "2026-09-01", 128.8667 ], [ "2026-09-02", 129.9333 ], [ "2026-09-03", 129.8 ], [ "2026-09-04", 129.5667 ], [ "2026-09-05", 130.1 ], [ "2026-09-06", 129.8667 ], [ "2026-09-07", 129.3667 ], [ "2026-09-08", 129.3 ], [ "2026-09-09", 129.2 ], [ "2026-09-10", 129.2 ], [ "2026-09-11", 129.5333 ], [ "2026-09-12", 130.4667 ], [ "2026-09-13", 130.9333 ], [ "2026-09-14", 131.3333 ], [ "2026-09-15", 130.8 ], [ "2026-09-16", 130.7667 ], [ "2026-09-17", 131.4333 ], [ "2026-09-18", 131.2667 ], [ "2026-09-19", 131.7667 ], [ "2026-09-20", 131.0333 ], [ "2026-09-21", 131.3667 ], [ "2026-09-22", 131.5 ], [ "2026-09-23", 131.5667 ], [ "2026-09-24", 132.6333 ], [ "2026-09-25", 132.8333 ], [ "2026-09-26", 132.9 ], [ "2026-09-27", 132.9667 ], [ "2026-09-28", 133.5 ], [ "2026-09-29", 133.6 ], [ "2026-09-30", 133.1333 ], [ "2026-10-01", 133.1667 ], [ "2026-10-02", 132.9 ], [ "2026-10-03", 133.3 ], [ "2026-10-04", 133.0 ] ], "rank": 45.5, "trend_tau": 0.43, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.964, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-04", "tau": 0.16, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 2.62, "run": 0, "change": 1.0, "move_pct": 11.3, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "rotterdam_tanker": { "key": "rotterdam_tanker", "label": "Tankerimport Rotterdam", "unit": "t/Tag", "group": "haefen", "group_label": "Zielh\u00e4fen", "decimals": 0, "note": "Der wichtigste Energiehafen Europas und der Zielpunkt f\u00fcr Roh\u00f6l, Diesel und LNG Richtung Nordwesteuropa. Diese Gruppe ist die logische Gegenprobe zu den Engstellen: Eine Engstelle misst, ob Ware LOSF\u00c4HRT, ein Hafen misst, ob sie ANKOMMT. Solange Gibraltar normal l\u00e4uft, aber Rotterdam Tonnage verliert, liegt das Problem nicht auf See.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), Daily Ports Data, t\u00e4glich ab 2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2832, "ref": 410520.0, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 1.129, "raw": 463314.0, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "threshold": 205260.0, "warn": 328416.0, "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-05", 392937.3333 ], [ "2026-07-06", 395798.3333 ], [ "2026-07-07", 406671.9333 ], [ "2026-07-08", 402505.7333 ], [ "2026-07-09", 401414.3667 ], [ "2026-07-10", 393177.3333 ], [ "2026-07-11", 398169.9667 ], [ "2026-07-12", 399840.7 ], [ "2026-07-13", 408373.8 ], [ "2026-07-14", 398821.1333 ], [ "2026-07-15", 403836.3333 ], [ "2026-07-16", 395193.1333 ], [ "2026-07-17", 397925.8667 ], [ "2026-07-18", 399619.8 ], [ "2026-07-19", 413807.3333 ], [ "2026-07-20", 411588.2 ], [ "2026-07-21", 409255.8667 ], [ "2026-07-22", 406539.8333 ], [ "2026-07-23", 405004.6667 ], [ "2026-07-24", 418016.7 ], [ "2026-07-25", 425044.4 ], [ "2026-07-26", 417312.0667 ], [ "2026-07-27", 411838.5 ], [ "2026-07-28", 414741.1333 ], [ "2026-07-29", 411496.6333 ], [ "2026-07-30", 402068.5 ], [ "2026-07-31", 391408.7 ], [ "2026-08-01", 400279.4667 ], [ "2026-08-02", 408510.5333 ], [ "2026-08-03", 408786.9667 ], [ "2026-08-04", 395955.8333 ], [ "2026-08-05", 409199.7 ], [ "2026-08-06", 400070.9667 ], [ "2026-08-07", 402592.2 ], [ "2026-08-08", 399409.9667 ], [ "2026-08-09", 388773.0 ], [ "2026-08-10", 398350.6667 ], [ "2026-08-11", 393218.4667 ], [ "2026-08-12", 391789.6 ], [ "2026-08-13", 393283.3667 ], [ "2026-08-14", 392345.6333 ], [ "2026-08-15", 402271.1 ], [ "2026-08-16", 406930.6667 ], [ "2026-08-17", 398101.5667 ], [ "2026-08-18", 386792.5333 ], [ "2026-08-19", 401834.5667 ], [ "2026-08-20", 398688.4333 ], [ "2026-08-21", 413399.6333 ], [ "2026-08-22", 416568.0333 ], [ "2026-08-23", 402389.2667 ], [ "2026-08-24", 408249.7667 ], [ "2026-08-25", 393543.3 ], [ "2026-08-26", 395120.1667 ], [ "2026-08-27", 390257.0667 ], [ "2026-08-28", 392922.4 ], [ "2026-08-29", 397762.0667 ], [ "2026-08-30", 405490.7333 ], [ "2026-08-31", 392310.7333 ], [ "2026-09-01", 382162.2 ], [ "2026-09-02", 377868.7 ], [ "2026-09-03", 387063.6333 ], [ "2026-09-04", 363012.4667 ], [ "2026-09-05", 370465.2667 ], [ "2026-09-06", 373153.8333 ], [ "2026-09-07", 388196.8333 ], [ "2026-09-08", 418920.4667 ], [ "2026-09-09", 403705.1667 ], [ "2026-09-10", 411821.1333 ], [ "2026-09-11", 412017.0 ], [ "2026-09-12", 418066.8 ], [ "2026-09-13", 412030.6667 ], [ "2026-09-14", 412407.8333 ], [ "2026-09-15", 399161.8333 ], [ "2026-09-16", 404134.8667 ], [ "2026-09-17", 428068.5 ], [ "2026-09-18", 414382.7 ], [ "2026-09-19", 427787.6333 ], [ "2026-09-20", 426683.6 ], [ "2026-09-21", 437446.7333 ], [ "2026-09-22", 440558.0667 ], [ "2026-09-23", 439864.6333 ], [ "2026-09-24", 446403.0667 ], [ "2026-09-25", 451264.2333 ], [ "2026-09-26", 447633.8667 ], [ "2026-09-27", 443636.2 ], [ "2026-09-28", 449032.0 ], [ "2026-09-29", 442686.7667 ], [ "2026-09-30", 450378.3667 ], [ "2026-10-01", 448934.2667 ], [ "2026-10-02", 463313.6333 ] ], "rank": 6.4, "trend_tau": 0.0, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.988, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-02", "tau": -0.3, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -14228.46, "run": 0, "change": 61096.87, "move_pct": 86.1, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "hamburg_import": { "key": "hamburg_import", "label": "Warenimport Hamburg", "unit": "t/Tag", "group": "haefen", "group_label": "Zielh\u00e4fen", "decimals": 0, "note": "Deutschlands gr\u00f6\u00dfter Seehafen, hier als Gesamtimport statt nur Tanker \u2014 Hamburg ist ein St\u00fcckgut- und Containerhafen, sein Tankeranteil ist klein und deshalb als Einzelreihe verrauscht.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), Daily Ports Data, t\u00e4glich ab 2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2832, "ref": 211857.0, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 0.824, "raw": 174627.0, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "threshold": 105928.0, "warn": 169485.0, "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-05", 182213.6667 ], [ "2026-07-06", 183567.0667 ], [ "2026-07-07", 195715.1333 ], [ "2026-07-08", 187075.0667 ], [ "2026-07-09", 187926.7667 ], [ "2026-07-10", 185036.4333 ], [ "2026-07-11", 186037.7 ], [ "2026-07-12", 186447.1 ], [ "2026-07-13", 185328.2 ], [ "2026-07-14", 181932.9333 ], [ "2026-07-15", 175833.2333 ], [ "2026-07-16", 184038.0667 ], [ "2026-07-17", 185560.7667 ], [ "2026-07-18", 186912.7333 ], [ "2026-07-19", 183192.7 ], [ "2026-07-20", 189888.6 ], [ "2026-07-21", 192430.4 ], [ "2026-07-22", 184588.0 ], [ "2026-07-23", 183995.3 ], [ "2026-07-24", 181532.9 ], [ "2026-07-25", 178850.2333 ], [ "2026-07-26", 183692.9333 ], [ 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"2026-10-02", 174626.6667 ] ], "rank": 91.8, "trend_tau": -0.71, "trend_flag": false, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.85, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-02", "tau": 0.64, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": 16869.43, "run": 0, "change": -33560.0, "move_pct": 84.2, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "antwerp_tanker": { "key": "antwerp_tanker", "label": "Tankerimport Antwerpen", "unit": "t/Tag", "group": "haefen", "group_label": "Zielh\u00e4fen", "decimals": 0, "note": "Der zweite gro\u00dfe Raffinerie- und Chemiestandort an der Nordseek\u00fcste. Rotterdam und Antwerpen zusammen sind der Trichter, durch den Nordwesteuropas Mitteldestillate laufen.", "source": "IMF PortWatch (AIS), Daily Ports Data, t\u00e4glich ab 2019", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2019-01-01", "n": 2832, "ref": 120320.0, "ref_window": [ "2019-01-01", "2023-12-31" ], "ref_ratio": 0.685, "raw": 82440.0, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "threshold": 60160.0, "warn": 96256.0, "stress": null, "status": "erhoeht", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-05", 83204.8333 ], [ "2026-07-06", 81475.7667 ], [ "2026-07-07", 78114.1333 ], [ "2026-07-08", 75662.6333 ], [ "2026-07-09", 78670.3667 ], [ "2026-07-10", 78836.5667 ], [ "2026-07-11", 82108.8333 ], [ "2026-07-12", 81748.2333 ], [ "2026-07-13", 81001.2667 ], [ "2026-07-14", 86597.6333 ], [ "2026-07-15", 88258.9 ], [ "2026-07-16", 89709.0 ], [ "2026-07-17", 88551.1333 ], [ "2026-07-18", 90608.9667 ], [ "2026-07-19", 90625.3 ], [ "2026-07-20", 91252.0667 ], [ "2026-07-21", 89285.0667 ], [ "2026-07-22", 92397.8667 ], [ "2026-07-23", 91980.9333 ], [ "2026-07-24", 90454.7667 ], [ "2026-07-25", 92545.7333 ], [ "2026-07-26", 94190.9 ], [ "2026-07-27", 97054.5 ], [ "2026-07-28", 97500.1333 ], [ "2026-07-29", 98323.5333 ], [ "2026-07-30", 100053.8 ], [ "2026-07-31", 98111.1 ], [ "2026-08-01", 98978.4 ], [ "2026-08-02", 100011.5 ], [ "2026-08-03", 99120.1 ], [ "2026-08-04", 96060.5333 ], [ "2026-08-05", 99738.5 ], [ "2026-08-06", 100490.4333 ], [ "2026-08-07", 105384.9333 ], [ "2026-08-08", 102642.2 ], [ "2026-08-09", 101303.5 ], [ "2026-08-10", 98419.7 ], [ "2026-08-11", 97417.8333 ], [ "2026-08-12", 98134.9333 ], [ "2026-08-13", 93547.2 ], [ "2026-08-14", 92276.4 ], [ "2026-08-15", 93795.7333 ], [ "2026-08-16", 90920.3667 ], [ "2026-08-17", 89098.3333 ], [ "2026-08-18", 87428.5 ], [ "2026-08-19", 91137.8667 ], [ "2026-08-20", 91657.6 ], [ "2026-08-21", 87348.6333 ], [ "2026-08-22", 90457.5333 ], [ "2026-08-23", 87975.8667 ], [ "2026-08-24", 86099.8 ], [ "2026-08-25", 84336.3667 ], [ "2026-08-26", 82607.1667 ], [ "2026-08-27", 83134.3333 ], [ "2026-08-28", 84303.2 ], [ "2026-08-29", 84598.8333 ], [ "2026-08-30", 84177.3333 ], [ "2026-08-31", 83167.5333 ], [ "2026-09-01", 84534.3667 ], [ "2026-09-02", 85835.8 ], [ "2026-09-03", 83697.7 ], [ "2026-09-04", 81790.9667 ], [ "2026-09-05", 82088.6 ], [ "2026-09-06", 77828.3333 ], [ "2026-09-07", 79210.3333 ], [ "2026-09-08", 77620.4 ], [ "2026-09-09", 77565.2667 ], [ "2026-09-10", 77605.2 ], [ "2026-09-11", 77934.5667 ], [ "2026-09-12", 80124.8 ], [ "2026-09-13", 81963.4 ], [ "2026-09-14", 79596.4 ], [ "2026-09-15", 82404.0667 ], [ "2026-09-16", 84064.8667 ], [ "2026-09-17", 85445.3 ], [ "2026-09-18", 82845.3 ], [ "2026-09-19", 85579.9667 ], [ "2026-09-20", 85463.2667 ], [ "2026-09-21", 82235.3333 ], [ "2026-09-22", 84800.3333 ], [ "2026-09-23", 84506.4667 ], [ "2026-09-24", 84927.8 ], [ "2026-09-25", 86495.5 ], [ "2026-09-26", 86116.8333 ], [ "2026-09-27", 85179.7667 ], [ "2026-09-28", 84598.9 ], [ "2026-09-29", 85674.7333 ], [ "2026-09-30", 86675.1667 ], [ "2026-10-01", 83928.3333 ], [ "2026-10-02", 82439.7333 ] ], "rank": 98.7, "trend_tau": -0.86, "trend_flag": true, "trend_years": 8, "yoy_ratio": 0.9, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-12", "to": "2026-10-02", "tau": 0.42, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": 6424.45, "run": 2, "change": -27297.97, "move_pct": 96.1, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "de_residual_load": { "key": "de_residual_load", "label": "Residuallast Deutschland", "unit": "MW", "group": "strom", "group_label": "Stromsystem im Winter", "decimals": 0, "note": "Last minus Wind und Sonne \u2014 also die Leistung, die aus steuerbaren Kraftwerken, Speichern oder dem Ausland kommen muss. Sie ist die eigentliche Winterfrage des Stromsystems, weil sie in der Dunkelflaute genau dann ihr Maximum erreicht, wenn auch die Gasentnahme ihr Maximum hat: dieselbe Wetterlage, zwei Knappheiten. Die Schwellen sind gesetzt und grob \u2014 sie markieren den Bereich, in dem der deutsche steuerbare Park (rund 60 GW gesicherte Leistung) ausgereizt ist, nicht eine berechnete Ausfallgrenze.", "source": "Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts (ENTSO-E/SMARD), Viertelstundenwerte, hier als 7-Tage-Mittel", "danger": "high", "mode": "spot", "start": "2023-12-31", "n": 1017, "raw": 22326.0, "as_of": "2026-10-12", "threshold": 55000, "warn": 45000, "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-15", 23300.6537 ], [ "2026-07-16", 23971.9497 ], [ "2026-07-17", 24617.1692 ], [ "2026-07-18", 23706.7208 ], [ "2026-07-19", 23391.1856 ], [ "2026-07-20", 22542.1251 ], [ "2026-07-21", 22152.9644 ], [ "2026-07-22", 20490.9695 ], [ "2026-07-23", 18857.8582 ], [ "2026-07-24", 18342.9621 ], [ "2026-07-25", 19091.1304 ], [ "2026-07-26", 19264.1289 ], [ "2026-07-27", 18926.3118 ], [ "2026-07-28", 19066.1815 ], [ "2026-07-29", 20334.4375 ], [ "2026-07-30", 20795.8305 ], [ "2026-07-31", 21574.3918 ], [ "2026-08-01", 22833.0385 ], [ "2026-08-02", 23341.5821 ], [ "2026-08-03", 23607.4012 ], [ "2026-08-04", 23934.5068 ], [ "2026-08-05", 23458.2408 ], [ "2026-08-06", 22402.974 ], [ "2026-08-07", 21318.6458 ], [ "2026-08-08", 20334.5214 ], [ "2026-08-09", 20210.3973 ], [ "2026-08-10", 20266.251 ], [ "2026-08-11", 19245.3503 ], [ "2026-08-12", 19405.2132 ], [ "2026-08-13", 19652.1195 ], [ "2026-08-14", 19210.4338 ], [ "2026-08-15", 19610.8821 ], [ "2026-08-16", 20869.7374 ], [ "2026-08-17", 23018.6121 ], [ "2026-08-18", 25188.0966 ], [ "2026-08-19", 25639.6131 ], [ "2026-08-20", 26257.4445 ], [ "2026-08-21", 27636.8893 ], [ "2026-08-22", 26171.8335 ], [ "2026-08-23", 24187.4796 ], [ "2026-08-24", 23034.4564 ], [ "2026-08-25", 21387.8537 ], [ "2026-08-26", 20652.9973 ], [ "2026-08-27", 19050.8109 ], [ "2026-08-28", 17882.1516 ], [ "2026-08-29", 17137.9327 ], [ "2026-08-30", 16747.1641 ], [ "2026-08-31", 15037.408 ], [ "2026-09-01", 14348.7985 ], [ "2026-09-02", 15413.0749 ], [ "2026-09-03", 15740.8238 ], [ "2026-09-04", 13602.1624 ], [ "2026-09-05", 13597.1795 ], [ "2026-09-06", 14748.6124 ], [ "2026-09-07", 16417.4189 ], [ "2026-09-08", 17015.8543 ], [ "2026-09-09", 16171.1368 ], [ "2026-09-10", 18878.2781 ], [ "2026-09-11", 22497.9967 ], [ "2026-09-12", 25329.8967 ], [ "2026-09-13", 27059.156 ], [ "2026-09-14", 29045.6234 ], [ "2026-09-15", 29989.8967 ], [ "2026-09-16", 31765.9307 ], [ "2026-09-17", 30113.9808 ], [ "2026-09-18", 28391.3548 ], [ "2026-09-19", 25563.1249 ], [ "2026-09-20", 22413.5817 ], [ "2026-09-21", 19494.0682 ], [ "2026-09-22", 20396.8521 ], [ "2026-09-23", 19866.3603 ], [ "2026-09-24", 20401.1272 ], [ "2026-09-25", 22156.8042 ], [ "2026-09-26", 25292.7241 ], [ "2026-09-27", 26463.054 ], [ "2026-09-28", 28597.129 ], [ "2026-09-29", 26959.0052 ], [ "2026-09-30", 25715.1814 ], [ "2026-10-01", 27484.4868 ], [ "2026-10-02", 29239.0667 ], [ "2026-10-03", 30135.9949 ], [ "2026-10-04", 32831.7659 ], [ "2026-10-05", 32087.3539 ], [ "2026-10-06", 34294.5701 ], [ "2026-10-07", 36445.7052 ], [ "2026-10-08", 34246.5037 ], [ "2026-10-09", 28777.3406 ], [ "2026-10-10", 24979.7302 ], [ "2026-10-11", 22172.8074 ], [ "2026-10-12", 22325.5389 ] ], "rank": 18.2, "yoy_ratio": 0.857, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-26", "to": "2026-10-12", "tau": 0.12, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 396.91, "run": 1, "change": 2414.6, "move_pct": 13.9, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "de_cross_border": { "key": "de_cross_border", "label": "Stromaustauschsaldo Deutschland", "unit": "MW", "group": "strom", "group_label": "Stromsystem im Winter", "decimals": 0, "note": "Positiv hei\u00dft Export, negativ Import. Deutschland ist seit der Abschaltung der Kernkraftwerke im Winterhalbjahr Nettoimporteur \u2014 das ist keine St\u00f6rung, sondern der Normalbetrieb eines gekoppelten Marktes. Zur Bruchlastfrage wird es erst, wenn dieselbe K\u00e4ltewelle Frankreich, Polen und die Schweiz gleichzeitig trifft: Dann ist die Leitung da, aber niemand hat etwas zu schicken. Die Schwellen bilden diese Abh\u00e4ngigkeit ab, nicht eine Netzgrenze.", "source": "Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts, Cross border electricity trading, 7-Tage-Mittel", "danger": "low", "mode": "spot", "start": "2023-12-31", "n": 1017, "raw": -2530.0, "as_of": "2026-10-12", "threshold": -6000, "warn": -3000, "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-15", 2209.4129 ], [ "2026-07-16", 2270.9504 ], [ "2026-07-17", 2209.2415 ], [ "2026-07-18", 1273.8287 ], [ "2026-07-19", 902.2304 ], [ "2026-07-20", 257.86 ], [ "2026-07-21", -6.9507 ], [ "2026-07-22", -1247.0499 ], [ "2026-07-23", -2014.2302 ], [ "2026-07-24", -1899.1711 ], [ "2026-07-25", -1052.3835 ], [ "2026-07-26", -786.3524 ], [ "2026-07-27", -966.2129 ], [ "2026-07-28", -865.0074 ], [ "2026-07-29", 27.314 ], [ "2026-07-30", 178.575 ], [ "2026-07-31", 417.9649 ], [ "2026-08-01", 959.6167 ], [ "2026-08-02", 983.0321 ], [ "2026-08-03", 864.7449 ], [ "2026-08-04", 1225.0679 ], [ "2026-08-05", 1690.9308 ], [ "2026-08-06", 1865.6713 ], [ "2026-08-07", 1530.4448 ], [ "2026-08-08", 893.482 ], [ "2026-08-09", 699.828 ], [ "2026-08-10", 1123.1969 ], [ "2026-08-11", 445.4677 ], [ "2026-08-12", -241.1853 ], [ "2026-08-13", -1035.8555 ], [ "2026-08-14", -1733.9533 ], [ "2026-08-15", -1548.2943 ], [ "2026-08-16", -669.0613 ], [ "2026-08-17", 428.0906 ], [ "2026-08-18", 1575.7168 ], [ "2026-08-19", 1908.9696 ], [ "2026-08-20", 2827.9381 ], [ "2026-08-21", 3840.0385 ], [ "2026-08-22", 3112.7484 ], [ "2026-08-23", 1960.5326 ], [ "2026-08-24", 1229.2262 ], [ "2026-08-25", -216.079 ], [ "2026-08-26", -905.885 ], [ "2026-08-27", -2407.607 ], [ "2026-08-28", -3025.9714 ], [ "2026-08-29", -3424.6689 ], [ "2026-08-30", -3634.5976 ], [ "2026-08-31", -4449.8113 ], [ "2026-09-01", -4767.3385 ], [ "2026-09-02", -4015.1548 ], [ "2026-09-03", -3513.3832 ], [ "2026-09-04", -4810.7216 ], [ "2026-09-05", -4862.4295 ], [ "2026-09-06", -4282.0744 ], [ "2026-09-07", -3736.2106 ], [ "2026-09-08", -3367.9746 ], [ "2026-09-09", -4045.4772 ], [ "2026-09-10", -3114.4996 ], [ "2026-09-11", -1938.1375 ], [ "2026-09-12", -682.8424 ], [ "2026-09-13", -58.6949 ], [ "2026-09-14", 757.8213 ], [ "2026-09-15", 1066.1488 ], [ "2026-09-16", 2190.6515 ], [ "2026-09-17", 1765.568 ], [ "2026-09-18", 1628.2537 ], [ "2026-09-19", 686.6579 ], [ "2026-09-20", -709.2839 ], [ "2026-09-21", -2141.435 ], [ "2026-09-22", -1751.0872 ], [ "2026-09-23", -2415.9888 ], [ "2026-09-24", -2689.4583 ], [ "2026-09-25", -1919.9249 ], [ "2026-09-26", -781.5427 ], [ "2026-09-27", -369.9295 ], [ "2026-09-28", 829.7308 ], [ "2026-09-29", 408.7893 ], [ "2026-09-30", 240.3426 ], [ "2026-10-01", 1624.0018 ], [ "2026-10-02", 2353.0006 ], [ "2026-10-03", 2426.6433 ], [ "2026-10-04", 3661.1906 ], [ "2026-10-05", 2995.604 ], [ "2026-10-06", 3600.1094 ], [ "2026-10-07", 4120.307 ], [ "2026-10-08", 2850.6461 ], [ "2026-10-09", 380.6182 ], [ "2026-10-10", -1025.3365 ], [ "2026-10-11", -2779.7275 ], [ "2026-10-12", -2530.1315 ] ], "rank": 90.1, "yoy_delta": -3742.1, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-26", "to": "2026-10-12", "tau": 0.3, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 2221.77, "run": 0, "change": -1900.69, "move_pct": 30.3, "oriented": "low", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "de_power_price": { "key": "de_power_price", "label": "Strompreis Day-Ahead Deutschland", "unit": "\u20ac/MWh", "group": "strom", "group_label": "Stromsystem im Winter", "decimals": 1, "note": "Der B\u00f6rsenpreis der Stunde, hier als Tagesmittel und 7-Tage-Gl\u00e4ttung. Er ist die schnellste Anzeige der Gasknappheit im Stromsystem, weil das teuerste laufende Kraftwerk den Preis setzt \u2014 und das ist in der Dunkelflaute fast immer ein Gaskraftwerk. Deshalb steht diese Reihe hier und nicht bei den Preisen: Sie misst nicht den Strommarkt, sondern die Durchreiche vom Gasmarkt in ihn.", "source": "Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts, Gebotszone DE-LU (Bundesnetzagentur/SMARD), Tagesmittel", "danger": "high", "mode": "spot", "start": "2023-12-31", "n": 1017, "raw": 140.9, "as_of": "2026-10-12", "threshold": 150, "warn": 100, "stress": null, "status": "erhoeht", "spark": [ [ "2026-07-15", 114.1961 ], [ "2026-07-16", 119.1896 ], [ "2026-07-17", 121.4456 ], [ "2026-07-18", 119.6691 ], [ "2026-07-19", 119.2467 ], [ "2026-07-20", 116.9283 ], [ "2026-07-21", 115.2232 ], [ "2026-07-22", 109.7982 ], [ "2026-07-23", 103.9546 ], [ "2026-07-24", 102.7567 ], [ "2026-07-25", 104.0103 ], [ "2026-07-26", 105.8067 ], [ "2026-07-27", 102.9164 ], [ "2026-07-28", 103.431 ], [ "2026-07-29", 107.2462 ], [ "2026-07-30", 107.7765 ], [ "2026-07-31", 110.2988 ], [ "2026-08-01", 114.5473 ], [ "2026-08-02", 117.2558 ], [ "2026-08-03", 123.7754 ], [ "2026-08-04", 128.5436 ], [ "2026-08-05", 126.3688 ], [ "2026-08-06", 122.8175 ], [ "2026-08-07", 119.1491 ], [ "2026-08-08", 116.0936 ], [ "2026-08-09", 114.8492 ], [ "2026-08-10", 113.2271 ], [ "2026-08-11", 107.7095 ], [ "2026-08-12", 111.596 ], [ "2026-08-13", 118.6462 ], [ "2026-08-14", 121.2546 ], [ "2026-08-15", 124.4419 ], [ "2026-08-16", 130.8381 ], [ "2026-08-17", 139.0433 ], [ "2026-08-18", 146.5514 ], [ "2026-08-19", 150.5214 ], [ "2026-08-20", 150.6073 ], [ "2026-08-21", 154.6497 ], [ "2026-08-22", 151.5025 ], [ "2026-08-23", 144.1621 ], [ "2026-08-24", 139.5075 ], [ "2026-08-25", 136.4184 ], [ "2026-08-26", 134.465 ], [ "2026-08-27", 131.1791 ], [ "2026-08-28", 127.2574 ], [ "2026-08-29", 125.3812 ], [ "2026-08-30", 124.3367 ], [ "2026-08-31", 119.7268 ], [ "2026-09-01", 120.1241 ], [ "2026-09-02", 121.8407 ], [ "2026-09-03", 122.5394 ], [ "2026-09-04", 114.1277 ], [ "2026-09-05", 108.7382 ], [ "2026-09-06", 112.9047 ], [ "2026-09-07", 119.6507 ], [ "2026-09-08", 119.5594 ], [ "2026-09-09", 116.6527 ], [ "2026-09-10", 125.7767 ], [ "2026-09-11", 142.0178 ], [ "2026-09-12", 154.5658 ], [ "2026-09-13", 162.8844 ], [ "2026-09-14", 177.1314 ], [ "2026-09-15", 181.8634 ], [ "2026-09-16", 187.3601 ], [ "2026-09-17", 179.5927 ], [ "2026-09-18", 168.1711 ], [ "2026-09-19", 153.99 ], [ "2026-09-20", 133.467 ], [ "2026-09-21", 112.1103 ], [ "2026-09-22", 119.1013 ], [ "2026-09-23", 118.1394 ], [ "2026-09-24", 118.5764 ], [ "2026-09-25", 127.2638 ], [ "2026-09-26", 143.4132 ], [ "2026-09-27", 155.4559 ], [ "2026-09-28", 168.3057 ], [ "2026-09-29", 158.7828 ], [ "2026-09-30", 154.385 ], [ "2026-10-01", 162.039 ], [ "2026-10-02", 165.4968 ], [ "2026-10-03", 168.371 ], [ "2026-10-04", 176.5825 ], [ "2026-10-05", 170.5473 ], [ "2026-10-06", 177.0067 ], [ "2026-10-07", 183.1542 ], [ "2026-10-08", 174.4743 ], [ "2026-10-09", 155.9095 ], [ "2026-10-10", 140.1175 ], [ "2026-10-11", 134.6335 ], [ "2026-10-12", 140.9026 ] ], "rank": 94.6, "yoy_ratio": 1.639, "trend": { "cadence": "weekly", "cadence_label": "Wochen", "window": 26, "from": "2026-04-26", "to": "2026-10-12", "tau": 0.65, "direction": "zunehmend", "value_direction": "steigend", "accel": 36.37, "run": 1, "change": 80.99, "move_pct": 93.4, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false } }, "de_temp_anomaly": { "key": "de_temp_anomaly", "label": "Temperaturabweichung Deutschland", "unit": "\u00b0C", "group": "kaelte", "group_label": "K\u00e4lte und Entnahme", "decimals": 2, "note": "Abweichung der Monatsmitteltemperatur vom eigenen Monatsmittel \u00fcber 145 Jahre Messgeschichte. Kalt ist hier die Gefahr \u2014 jedes Grad unter dem Mittel erh\u00f6ht die Gasentnahme sp\u00fcrbar. Bewertet wird gegen den eigenen Monat, sonst w\u00e4re jeder Januar eine Krise.", "source": "DWD Open Data, Gebietsmittel Lufttemperatur, monatlich ab 1881", "danger": "low", "mode": "track", "start": "1881-01-01", "n": 1749, "raw": 15.86, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "tcode": "SEASONAL_ANOMALY", "tcode_label": "Abweichung vom eigenen Monatsmittel", "transformed": 2.46, "stress": 13.39, "status": "ruhig", "tau": 0.1, "trend": { "cadence": "monthly", "cadence_label": "Monate", "window": 12, "from": "2025-10-01", "to": "2026-09-01", "tau": -0.46, "direction": "abnehmend", "value_direction": "fallend", "accel": -16.15, "run": 1, "change": -23.73, "move_pct": 46.3, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1910-12-01", 5.83 ], [ "1911-11-01", 20.61 ], [ "1912-10-01", 88.73 ], [ "1913-09-01", 58.82 ], [ "1914-08-01", 28.05 ], [ "1915-07-01", 73.14 ], [ "1916-06-01", 97.31 ], [ "1917-05-01", 5.08 ], [ "1918-04-01", 13.94 ], [ "1919-03-01", 54.34 ], [ "1920-02-01", 7.39 ], [ "1921-01-01", 0.0 ], [ "1921-12-01", 57.94 ], [ "1922-11-01", 71.48 ], [ "1923-10-01", 11.68 ], [ "1924-09-01", 37.89 ], [ "1925-08-01", 42.23 ], [ "1926-07-01", 42.67 ], [ "1927-06-01", 80.19 ], [ "1928-05-01", 92.1 ], [ "1929-04-01", 95.29 ], [ "1930-03-01", 31.34 ], [ "1931-02-01", 83.98 ], [ "1932-01-01", 11.26 ], [ "1932-12-01", 49.74 ], [ "1933-11-01", 77.22 ], [ "1934-10-01", 22.66 ], [ "1935-09-01", 39.81 ], [ "1936-08-01", 54.44 ], [ "1937-07-01", 53.3 ], [ "1938-06-01", 40.67 ], [ "1939-05-01", 88.94 ], [ "1940-04-01", 40.25 ], [ "1941-03-01", 54.04 ], [ "1942-02-01", 99.19 ], [ "1943-01-01", 45.15 ], [ "1943-12-01", 64.53 ], [ "1944-11-01", 42.69 ], [ "1945-10-01", 23.23 ], [ "1946-09-01", 30.05 ], [ "1947-08-01", 8.93 ], [ "1948-07-01", 77.58 ], [ "1949-06-01", 83.33 ], [ "1950-05-01", 24.28 ], [ "1951-04-01", 60.93 ], [ "1952-03-01", 72.85 ], [ "1953-02-01", 65.81 ], [ "1954-01-01", 94.35 ], [ "1954-12-01", 8.18 ], [ "1955-11-01", 53.57 ], [ "1956-10-01", 57.91 ], [ "1957-09-01", 84.88 ], [ "1958-08-01", 41.62 ], [ "1959-07-01", 12.8 ], [ "1960-06-01", 36.55 ], [ "1961-05-01", 90.07 ], [ "1962-04-01", 38.72 ], [ "1963-03-01", 74.43 ], [ "1964-02-01", 44.72 ], [ "1965-01-01", 14.69 ], [ "1965-12-01", 13.46 ], [ "1966-11-01", 85.21 ], [ "1967-10-01", 7.36 ], [ "1968-09-01", 51.41 ], [ "1969-08-01", 50.61 ], [ "1970-07-01", 77.37 ], [ "1971-06-01", 85.34 ], [ "1972-05-01", 77.48 ], [ "1973-04-01", 92.86 ], [ "1974-03-01", 9.9 ], [ "1975-02-01", 26.74 ], [ "1976-01-01", 15.54 ], [ "1976-12-01", 86.4 ], [ "1977-11-01", 24.38 ], [ "1978-10-01", 39.08 ], [ "1979-09-01", 58.52 ], [ "1980-08-01", 48.43 ], [ "1981-07-01", 71.87 ], [ "1982-06-01", 34.25 ], [ "1983-05-01", 76.34 ], [ "1984-04-01", 71.4 ], [ "1985-03-01", 67.66 ], [ "1986-02-01", 99.32 ], [ "1987-01-01", 98.94 ], [ "1987-12-01", 21.07 ], [ "1988-11-01", 74.22 ], [ "1989-10-01", 14.73 ], [ "1990-09-01", 84.87 ], [ "1991-08-01", 21.14 ], [ "1992-07-01", 20.75 ], [ "1993-06-01", 50.45 ], [ "1994-05-01", 49.96 ], [ "1995-04-01", 31.36 ], [ "1996-03-01", 93.61 ], [ "1997-02-01", 1.3 ], [ "1998-01-01", 5.75 ], [ "1998-12-01", 50.51 ], [ "1999-11-01", 66.22 ], [ "2000-10-01", 14.11 ], [ "2001-09-01", 85.53 ], [ "2002-08-01", 11.8 ], [ "2003-07-01", 15.92 ], [ "2004-06-01", 63.04 ], [ "2005-05-01", 47.57 ], [ "2006-04-01", 45.65 ], [ "2007-03-01", 9.02 ], [ "2008-02-01", 3.89 ], [ "2009-01-01", 88.67 ], [ "2009-12-01", 70.64 ], [ "2010-11-01", 37.45 ], [ "2011-10-01", 39.17 ], [ "2012-09-01", 50.93 ], [ "2013-08-01", 27.96 ], [ "2014-07-01", 15.26 ], [ "2015-06-01", 52.4 ], [ "2016-05-01", 29.24 ], [ "2017-04-01", 66.55 ], [ "2018-03-01", 84.51 ], [ "2019-02-01", 3.46 ], [ "2020-01-01", 2.45 ], [ "2020-12-01", 15.28 ], [ "2021-11-01", 39.21 ], [ "2022-10-01", 2.67 ], [ "2023-09-01", 2.31 ], [ "2024-08-01", 6.94 ], [ "2025-07-01", 38.53 ], [ "2026-06-01", 3.05 ], [ "2026-09-01", 13.39 ] ] }, "de_heating_degree_days": { "key": "de_heating_degree_days", "label": "Heizgradtage Deutschland, Saisonbeginn Okt\u2013Dez", "unit": "HDD", "group": "kaelte", "group_label": "K\u00e4lte und Entnahme", "decimals": 0, "note": "Summe der Heizgradtage von Oktober bis Dezember, ein Punkt je Saison ab 1980 \u2014 das amtliche Ma\u00df des Heizbedarfs. Bewusst nur das erste Saisondrittel: Es liegt vollst\u00e4ndig in einem Kalenderjahr und ist deshalb ohne Jahreswechsel-Kr\u00fccke vergleichbar, und es ist der Teil, der \u00fcber den Speicherstand zum Jahreswechsel entscheidet. Es ist die Referenz f\u00fcr das Kaltwinter-Szenario der Bilanz: Nicht \u201ewas w\u00e4re wenn\u201c, sondern \u201ewie kalt war es tats\u00e4chlich im k\u00e4ltesten F\u00fcnftel der letzten 45 Jahre\u201c. Achtung Ver\u00f6ffentlichungsrhythmus: Eurostat schreibt diese Reihe nur j\u00e4hrlich fort, sie endet also eine Saison vor der Gegenwart.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_chdd_m (Heizgradtage), monatlich ab 1980", "danger": "high", "mode": "track", "start": "1980-12-01", "n": 46, "raw": 1073.0, "as_of": "2025-12-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 32.61, "status": "ruhig", "tau": -0.37, "trend": { "cadence": "annual", "cadence_label": "Jahre", "window": 10, "from": "2016-12-01", "to": "2025-12-01", "tau": -0.07, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "value_direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": -1.17, "run": 2, "change": -24.15, "move_pct": null, "oriented": "high", "deseasonalized": false, "deseasonalize_wanted": false }, "spark": [ [ "1999-12-01", 45.0 ], [ "2000-12-01", 4.76 ], [ "2001-12-01", 40.91 ], [ "2002-12-01", 60.87 ], [ "2003-12-01", 66.67 ], [ "2004-12-01", 40.0 ], [ "2005-12-01", 19.23 ], [ "2006-12-01", 3.7 ], [ "2007-12-01", 57.14 ], [ "2008-12-01", 48.28 ], [ "2009-12-01", 40.0 ], [ "2010-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2011-12-01", 9.38 ], [ "2012-12-01", 48.48 ], [ "2013-12-01", 8.82 ], [ "2014-12-01", 5.71 ], [ "2015-12-01", 5.56 ], [ "2016-12-01", 56.76 ], [ "2017-12-01", 15.79 ], [ "2018-12-01", 10.26 ], [ "2019-12-01", 12.5 ], [ "2020-12-01", 17.07 ], [ "2021-12-01", 33.33 ], [ "2022-12-01", 9.3 ], [ "2023-12-01", 9.09 ], [ "2024-12-01", 22.22 ], [ "2025-12-01", 32.61 ] ] } }, "nodes": [ { "key": "price", "label": "Gaspreisstruktur", "stage": "Anreiz", "desc": "Ein Sommer, der teurer ist als der Winter, macht Einspeichern zum Verlustgesch\u00e4ft.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "ttf_yoy", "stress": 97.58, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 17.9, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "injection", "label": "Einspeicherung", "stage": "Aufbau", "desc": "Was von April bis September nicht in die Kaverne geht, fehlt im Januar. Es gibt kein Nachholen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_injection_season", "stress": 53.85, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 5522.0, "unit": "Mio. m\u00b3", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "stock", "label": "Speicherbestand", "stage": "Puffer", "desc": "Der einzige Teil der Versorgung, der ohne laufende Zufuhr verf\u00fcgbar ist.", "kind": "declared", "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 55.9, "unit": "%", "decimals": 1, "as_of": "2026-09-14", "why": "Zitierter Stand (INES/Bundesnetzagentur-Lagebericht, zitiert 20.09.2026) \u2014 kein GIE-Schl\u00fcssel hinterlegt, deshalb keine Tagesmessung." }, { "key": "cold", "label": "K\u00e4lte", "stage": "Nachfrage", "desc": "Der Multiplikator: Dieselbe Bestandsmenge reicht in einem milden Winter lange und in einem kalten nicht.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_temp_anomaly", "stress": 13.39, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 15.86, "unit": "\u00b0C", "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, { "key": "withdrawal", "label": "Entnahmerate", "stage": "Abbau", "desc": "Importdeckung unter 1 hei\u00dft: Es wird aus dem Speicher gelebt.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_import_cover", "stress": 52.75, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 2.15, "unit": "\u00d7", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "gap", "label": "Winterl\u00fccke", "stage": "Ergebnis", "desc": "Deckungsgrad des Speicherbestands gegen die k\u00e4lteste gemessene Winterentnahme \u2014 Ergebnis der Bilanz, keine eigene Messreihe.", "kind": "computed", "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 0.91, "unit": "\u00d7 k\u00e4ltester Winter", "decimals": 2, "as_of": "2026-10-12", "why": "Gerechnet: Startbestand geteilt durch die h\u00f6chste gemessene Winterentnahme seit 2014." }, { "key": "chokepoint", "label": "Engstelle", "stage": "Weg", "desc": "Hormus und Bab el-Mandeb sind die beiden Nadel\u00f6hre zwischen Golf und Europa.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "hormuz_tanker", "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 1.0, "unit": "Tanker/Tag", "as_of": "2026-10-04" }, { "key": "reroute", "label": "Umleitung", "stage": "Weg", "desc": "Umleiten l\u00f6st das Mengenproblem und erzeugt ein Zeitproblem.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "cape_reroute", "stress": null, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 0.684, "unit": "Anteil", "as_of": "2026-10-04" }, { "key": "port", "label": "Zielhafen", "stage": "Weg", "desc": "Der Punkt, an dem die Ware ankommt \u2014 oder eben nicht. Erst zusammen mit der Engstelle trennt er eine Transportst\u00f6rung von einer Mengenst\u00f6rung.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "rotterdam_tanker", "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 463314.0, "unit": "t/Tag", "as_of": "2026-10-02" }, { "key": "power", "label": "Stromsystem", "stage": "Nachfrage", "desc": "Die zweite Winternachfrage: Dieselbe K\u00e4ltewelle, die den Speicher leert, hebt die Residuallast \u2014 und die wird zu einem erheblichen Teil aus Gas gedeckt.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "de_residual_load", "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 22326.0, "unit": "MW", "as_of": "2026-10-12" }, { "key": "freight", "label": "Frachtraten", "stage": "Kosten", "desc": "", "kind": "unobserved", "stress": null, "status": "unbeobachtet", "why": "Baltic-Exchange- und Spark-Indizes sind lizenzpflichtig; keine keylose Reihe." }, { "key": "distillate", "label": "Mitteldestillate", "stage": "Kosten", "desc": "Diesel ist der Engpass hinter dem Engpass: Er tr\u00e4gt Ernte, Lastverkehr, Heiz\u00f6l und Notstrom gleichzeitig.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "diesel_crack", "stress": 97.55, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 71.71, "unit": "$/bbl", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "key": "transport_cost", "label": "Transport- und Betriebskosten", "stage": "Folge", "desc": "Br\u00fccke zur Agrar-Wasser-Kette: Dieselpreis und Frachtrate sind zwei der vier Kostenbl\u00f6cke des FAO-Preisindex.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "food_price", "stress": 97.5, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 136.0, "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "as_of": "2026-09-01" } ], "edges": [ { "src": "price", "dst": "injection", "grade": "A", "claim": "Liegt der Sommerpreis \u00fcber dem Winterpreis, ist Einspeichern betriebswirtschaftlich ein Verlust. Das ist keine Korrelation, sondern die Arbitragebedingung des Speichergesch\u00e4fts.", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "injection", "dst": "stock", "grade": "A", "claim": "Bilanzidentit\u00e4t: Bestand ist die kumulierte Einspeicherung minus Entnahme. Eine fehlende Sommermenge ist im Winter nicht aufholbar, weil die Einspeicherleistung technisch begrenzt ist.", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "cold", "dst": "withdrawal", "grade": "A", "claim": "Heizgradtage und Gasentnahme sind physikalisch gekoppelt; die Elastizit\u00e4t ist in jeder deutschen Winterbilanz nachweisbar.", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "withdrawal", "dst": "stock", "grade": "A", "claim": "Entnahme reduziert den Bestand \u2014 dieselbe Bilanzidentit\u00e4t von der anderen Seite.", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "stock", "dst": "gap", "grade": "A", "claim": "Startbestand minus gemessene Winterentnahme ergibt den Deckungsgrad. Ein Wert unter 1 ist kein Ausfall, sondern eine Abh\u00e4ngigkeit vom laufenden Import.", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "cold", "dst": "gap", "grade": "B", "claim": "In den Kaltwintern 2010 und 2012 lag die Entnahme rund ein F\u00fcnftel \u00fcber dem Median \u2014 dokumentiert, aber nicht jedes Mal gleich stark.", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "chokepoint", "dst": "reroute", "grade": "B", "claim": "Die Umleitung ums Kap 2024 ist gemessen: Suez-Verkehr halbiert, Kap-Verkehr entsprechend gestiegen. Der Ausl\u00f6ser war Risiko, nicht Sperrung.", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "reroute", "dst": "freight", "grade": "B", "claim": "Zwei bis f\u00fcnf Wochen Mehrfahrzeit binden Tonnage und verknappen Frachtraum; in den Episoden 2021 und 2024 folgten die Raten innerhalb von Wochen.", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "freight", "dst": "distillate", "grade": "C", "claim": "Frachtkosten wandern in den Importpreis f\u00fcr Mitteldestillate \u2014 plausibel und episodisch belegt, aber vom Raffineriezustand \u00fcberlagert.", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "chokepoint", "dst": "distillate", "grade": "B", "claim": "Golf-Raffinerien (Jubail, Ruwais, Jamnagar \u00fcber Hormus-Zulauf) sind Europas zweitgr\u00f6\u00dfte Dieselquelle. 2022 zeigte, wie schnell eine Quellenverschiebung den Crack hebt.", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "distillate", "dst": "transport_cost", "grade": "A", "claim": "Diesel ist ein direkter Kostenblock in Landwirtschaft, Lastverkehr und K\u00fchlkette \u2014 definitorisch, kein Sch\u00e4tzeffekt.", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "price", "dst": "distillate", "grade": "C", "claim": "Gas-zu-\u00d6l-Substitution in Industrie und Kraftwerken hebt die Dieselnachfrage. 2022 sichtbar, in normalen Jahren schwach.", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "reroute", "dst": "port", "grade": "B", "claim": "Eine Umleitung ums Kap verschiebt die Ankunft um zwei bis f\u00fcnf Wochen; im Zielhafen erscheint das als Tonnageeinbruch mit Verz\u00f6gerung, nicht sofort. Die beiden Reihen laufen deshalb versetzt, nicht gleichzeitig.", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "port", "dst": "distillate", "grade": "B", "claim": "Rotterdam und Antwerpen sind der Umschlagpunkt f\u00fcr nordwesteurop\u00e4ische Mitteldestillate; ein R\u00fcckgang der Tankertonnage dort geht dem ARA-Produktpreis voraus.", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "cold", "dst": "power", "grade": "A", "claim": "K\u00e4lte hebt die Last und f\u00e4llt in Mitteleuropa systematisch mit Windstille zusammen \u2014 die Residuallast erreicht ihr Maximum deshalb genau in der Dunkelflaute, nicht im Jahresmittel.", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "power", "dst": "withdrawal", "grade": "B", "claim": "Gaskraftwerke decken die Spitze der Residuallast; ihre Eins\u00e4tze erh\u00f6hen die Speicherentnahme zus\u00e4tzlich zum Heizbedarf. Die Kopplung ist in der Winterbilanz nachweisbar, ihre St\u00e4rke h\u00e4ngt aber vom Strompreis und vom Importsaldo ab.", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "price", "dst": "power", "grade": "A", "claim": "In der Dunkelflaute setzt das teuerste laufende Kraftwerk den B\u00f6rsenpreis, und das ist fast immer ein Gaskraftwerk. Der Gaspreis wandert damit unmittelbar in den Strompreis \u2014 Merit-Order, kein Sch\u00e4tzeffekt.", "status": "quelle_heiss" } ], "balance": { "as_of": "2026-10-12", "constants": { "de_capacity_twh": { "value": 266.0, "label": "Arbeitsgasvolumen Deutschland", "unit": "TWh", "source": "GIE/INES, Summe der deutschen Untertagespeicher (Stand 2025/26)" }, "eu_capacity_twh": { "value": 1143.0, "label": "Arbeitsgasvolumen EU", "unit": "TWh", "source": "GIE AGSI+, EU-Aggregat (Stand 2025/26)" }, "gwh_per_mcm": { "value": 10.55, "label": "Brennwert Erdgas", "unit": "GWh je Mio. m\u00b3", "source": "H-Gas-Konvention, ~10,55 kWh/m\u00b3 (BDEW); Eurostat rechnet in Volumen, die Speicherziele stehen in Energie" }, "target_share": { "value": 0.8, "label": "Gesetzliches F\u00fcllstandsziel zum 1. November", "unit": "Anteil", "source": "\u00a7 35b EnWG (Gasspeichergesetz), 80 % je Anlage zum 1.11.; EU-Verordnung 2022/1032 i.d.F. 2025: 83 % flexibel zwischen 1.10. und 1.12." } }, "regions": { "de": { "label": "Deutschland", "capacity_twh": 266.0, "fill_pct": 55.9, "fill_as_of": "2026-09-14", "fill_measured": false, "fill_source": "INES/Bundesnetzagentur-Lagebericht, zitiert 20.09.2026", "stock_twh": 148.7, "target_pct": 80.0, "target_date": "2026-11-01", "days_left": 20, "need_twh": 64.1, "need_rate_gwh_d": 3205.0, "max_rate_gwh_d": 1362.0, "max_rate_when": "2022-08-01", "recent_rate_gwh_d": 541.0, "projected_fill_pct": 60.0, "verdict": "arithmetisch_unerreichbar", "winter_withdrawal_median_twh": 123.9, "winter_withdrawal_max_twh": 174.9, "winter_withdrawal_max_season": "2017/18", "n_winters": 12, "cover_median": 1.29, "cover_cold": 0.91, "gap_cold_twh": 15.4 }, "eu": { "label": "EU", "capacity_twh": 1143.0, "fill_pct": 69.3, "fill_as_of": "2026-09-20", "fill_measured": false, "fill_source": "GIE AGSI+ EU-Aggregat, zitiert 20.09.2026", "stock_twh": 792.1, "target_pct": 80.0, "target_date": "2026-11-01", "days_left": 20, "need_twh": 122.3, "need_rate_gwh_d": 6115.0, "max_rate_gwh_d": 5096.0, "max_rate_when": "2022-05-01", "recent_rate_gwh_d": 2877.0, "projected_fill_pct": 74.3, "verdict": "arithmetisch_unerreichbar", "winter_withdrawal_median_twh": 589.2, "winter_withdrawal_max_twh": 769.0, "winter_withdrawal_max_season": "2017/18", "n_winters": 9, "cover_median": 1.44, "cover_cold": 1.1, "gap_cold_twh": -80.6 } }, "notes": [ "Die Deckungsrechnung stellt den Speicherbestand gegen die gemessene Winterentnahme. Sie unterstellt damit den h\u00e4rtesten Fall \u2014 alles aus dem Speicher, kein laufender Import. Ein Deckungsgrad unter 1 ist deshalb kein Versorgungsausfall, sondern die Gr\u00f6\u00dfe der Abh\u00e4ngigkeit vom Zufluss in den k\u00e4ltesten Wochen.", "Die Fortschreibung verl\u00e4ngert die Einspeicherrate der letzten drei gemeldeten Monate linear bis zum 1. November. Reale Raten fallen gegen Saisonende, weil der Kavernendruck steigt \u2014 die Fortschreibung ist daher eher zu freundlich als zu streng.", "Eurostat meldet Gasbilanzen mit rund zwei Monaten Verzug; die j\u00fcngsten Wochen sind in der Einspeicherrate noch nicht enthalten." ], "diagnosis": { "origin": "entnahme", "sentence": "Der Puffer fehlt aus der Entnahme, nicht aus der Einspeicherung: April\u2013Juli 2026 gingen 58 TWh in die Speicher, 93 % des Medians seit 2014 \u2014 praktisch normal. Davor lagen aber zwei Entnahmewinter \u00fcber dem Median (2024/25, 2025/26), und eine Sommersaison kann zwei kalte Winter nicht nachf\u00fcllen, weil die Einspeicherleistung begrenzt ist.", "injection_latest_twh": 58.3, "injection_median_twh": 62.7, "injection_share": 0.93, "injection_window": "April\u2013Juli", "withdrawal_median_twh": 123.9, "withdrawal_last": [ { "season": "2024/25", "twh": 169.0 }, { "season": "2025/26", "twh": 129.0 } ], "n_seasons": 13, "note": "Vergleichsfenster April\u2013Juli, weil der laufende Sommer nur bis dahin gemeldet ist; die Entnahmewinter sind vollst\u00e4ndige Saisons November\u2013M\u00e4rz." }, "cold_reference": { "label": "Heizgradtage Oktober\u2013Dezember, Saison", "latest": 1073.0, "as_of": "2025-12-01", "stress": 32.61, "note": "Das Kaltwinter-Szenario der Deckungsrechnung ist kein Modell: Es ist die h\u00f6chste tats\u00e4chlich gemessene Winterentnahme seit 2014." } }, "unobserved": [ { "key": "summer_winter_spread", "label": "Sommer-Winter-Spread am Gasmarkt", "why": "Der eigentliche Ausl\u00f6ser des niedrigen F\u00fcllstands: Solange der Sommerkontrakt \u00fcber dem Winterkontrakt liegt, ist Einspeichern ein Verlustgesch\u00e4ft. Terminkurven (ICE Endex TTF) haben keinen keylosen Endpunkt; frei verf\u00fcgbar ist nur der Spotpreis, der genau diese Information nicht enth\u00e4lt. Ersatzweise steht hier die Jahresver\u00e4nderung des Spotpreises." }, { "key": "freight_rates", "label": "Tankerfrachtraten (Worldscale, LNG-Charter)", "why": "Das Bindeglied zwischen Umleitung und Endpreis. Baltic-Exchange- und Spark-Indizes sind lizenzpflichtig. Die Umleitungsquote dieser Ebene ist der mengenm\u00e4\u00dfige Vorlauf davon, nicht ihr Ersatz." }, { "key": "lng_sendout", "label": "LNG-Einspeisung europ\u00e4ischer Terminals", "why": "GIE ALSI liefert das tagesaktuell, verlangt aber denselben Schl\u00fcssel wie AGSI. Ohne ihn ist nicht messbar, ob eine Speicherl\u00fccke durch Terminalauslastung ausgeglichen wird." }, { "key": "emergency_stage", "label": "Rechtliche Eskalationsstufe (Notfallplan Gas)", "why": "Ein Rechtszustand, keine Zeitreihe: Seit 1.7.2025 gilt die Fr\u00fchwarnstufe, in der die Bundesnetzagentur nichts anordnen darf. Eingriffsrechte entstehen erst in der Notfallstufe. Das ist f\u00fcr die Bruchlastfrage entscheidend und wird hier bewusst als Zustand benannt, nicht als Zahl." }, { "key": "diesel_stocks_eu", "label": "EU-Mitteldestillatbest\u00e4nde", "why": "Euroilstock der Kommission erscheint als PDF, die IEA-Best\u00e4nde sind lizenziert. Der Dieselcrack ist der Preis-Schatten dieser Best\u00e4nde und hier ihr Ersatz." } ], "calendar": [ { "key": "iea_omr", "label": "IEA Oil Market Report", "who": "IEA", "next": "2026-10-12", "days_until": 0, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "diesel_crack", "brent" ], "url": "https://www.iea.org/topics/oil-market-report" }, { "key": "opec_momr", "label": "OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report", "who": "OPEC", "next": "2026-10-14", "days_until": 2, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "brent" ], "url": "https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm" }, { "key": "eurostat_gas", "label": "Eurostat-Gasbilanz (neuer Monat)", "who": "Eurostat", "next": "2026-10-17", "days_until": 5, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "de_injection_season", "eu_injection_season", "de_import_cover" ], "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_cb_gasm" }, { "key": "dwd_month", "label": "DWD-Monatsbilanz Witterung", "who": "DWD", "next": "2026-11-01", "days_until": 20, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "de_temp_anomaly" ], "url": "https://www.dwd.de/DE/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressemitteilungen.html" }, { "key": "enwg_target", "label": "Gesetzliches F\u00fcllstandsziel 80 % (\u00a7 35b EnWG)", "who": "Bundesnetzagentur", "next": "2026-11-01", "days_until": 20, "approx": false, "feeds": [ "de_gas_fill" ], "url": "https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/start.html" }, { "key": "ines_scenarios", "label": "INES-Szenarien zur Winterversorgung", "who": "INES", "next": "2026-11-10", "days_until": 29, "approx": true, "feeds": [ "de_gas_fill" ], "url": "https://energien-speichern.de/" } ], "baseline": { "date": "2026-09-20", "summary": "Gasspeicher Deutschland 55,9 % (Vorjahr 75,4 %), EU 69,3 % (Saisonnorm 88 %), niedrigster Stand zu diesem Datum seit 15 Jahren. TTF rund 81 \u20ac/MWh, +134 % zum Vorjahr \u2014 der Sommer war teurer als der Winter, Einspeichern damit ein Verlustgesch\u00e4ft. Katar-Ausfall (Ras Laffan) bindet LNG-Mengen, die saudische Ost-West-Pipeline ist nach Drohnentreffern vom 9./11. September ausgefallen, Hormus faktisch gesperrt. Fr\u00fchwarnstufe gilt seit 1.7.2025, in ihr darf die Bundesnetzagentur nichts anordnen." }, "n_hot": 13, "n_edges_tense": 5, "n_unobserved": 6, "failures": [ { "key": "de_gas_fill", "label": "Speicherf\u00fcllstand Deutschland", "group": "speicher", "reason": "keine Daten \u2014 GIE-Schl\u00fcssel fehlt" }, { "key": "eu_gas_fill", "label": "Speicherf\u00fcllstand EU", "group": "speicher", "reason": "keine Daten \u2014 GIE-Schl\u00fcssel fehlt" } ], "method": "Drei Betriebsarten, weil die Reihen drei Naturen haben: Tagesreihen (Engstellen, F\u00fcllstand) als 30-Tage-Mittel mit gesetzter Schwelle plus Perzentilrang der eigenen Historie; Monatsreihen (Preise, Temperatur) mit expandierendem Perzentil ohne Look-ahead; Saisonsummen (Einspeicherung, Heizgradtage) als Jahrespunkte mit verk\u00fcrzter Einlaufzeit, weil die Eurostat-Gasbilanz erst 2014 beginnt. Die Bilanz ist Arithmetik mit deklarierten Konstanten; sie misst den Puffer, nicht die Versorgung. Kantenstatus ist deskriptiv, nicht kausal." }, "reserves": { "note": "Durchhaltetage sind gerechnet: amtlicher Bestand geteilt durch gemessenen Tagesverbrauch, beide aus derselben Quelle und derselben Einheit. Die Normen sind Rechtsgr\u00f6\u00dfen (EU-Bevorratungsrichtlinie) oder benannte historische Krisenwerte \u2014 keine gesetzten Schwellen. Die Ersetzbarkeit ist DEKLARIERT mit Evidenzgrad, keine Messung. Die Reaktionsleiter ist ein Rechtszustand mit historisch gemessenen Verz\u00f6gerungen. Kein Wert dieser Ebene flie\u00dft in Druck, Resilienz oder Spannung ein, und es gibt bewusst keine Reserven-Kopfzahl: \u00d6ltage und Getreidetage sind nicht mittelbar.", "contributes_to_headline": false, "grades": { "A": "Physikalisch, bilanziell oder definitorisch zwingend (Wasserbilanz, Indexkonstruktion, Kostenanteil).", "B": "In Ertrags-, Preis- oder D\u00fcrreepisoden empirisch dokumentiert (Attributionsstudien, 2007/08, 2015/16, 2018, 2022).", "C": "Plausibel und literaturgest\u00fctzt, aber episodisch d\u00fcnn belegt.", "D": "Theoretisch begr\u00fcndet, empirisch nicht quantifiziert." }, "constants": { "eu_oil_days_imports": { "value": 90.0, "label": "Pflichtvorrat \u00d6l, bezogen auf Nettoeinfuhren", "unit": "Tage", "source": "Richtlinie 2009/119/EG Art. 3: mindestens 90 Tage durchschnittlicher t\u00e4glicher Nettoeinfuhren ODER 61 Tage Inlandsverbrauch \u2014 es gilt der H\u00d6HERE Wert" }, "eu_oil_days_consumption": { "value": 61.0, "label": "Pflichtvorrat \u00d6l, bezogen auf Inlandsverbrauch", "unit": "Tage", "source": "Richtlinie 2009/119/EG Art. 3, zweite Alternative; in Deutschland umgesetzt im Erd\u00f6lbevorratungsgesetz (Erd\u00f6lBevG)" }, "grain_crisis_2007": { "value": 2007, "label": "Referenzjahr der letzten globalen Nahrungsmittelkrise", "unit": "Marktjahr", "source": "Preisspitze 2007/08 mit Exportverboten in \u00fcber 30 L\u00e4ndern; die Bestandsreichweite dieses Jahres dient hier als benannter Krisenwert statt einer gesetzten Schwelle" }, "bundesreserve_getreide_t": { "value": 150000.0, "label": "Bundesreserve Getreide (zivile Notfallreserve)", "unit": "t", "source": "BLE, Zivile Notfallreserve \u2014 rund 150.000 t Weizen, Roggen und Hafer, ausgelegt auf etwa einen Tag Vollversorgung der Bev\u00f6lkerung mit Brot; keine Zeitreihe ver\u00f6ffentlicht" } }, "groups": [ { "key": "energie", "label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "n": 3, "n_hot": 2 }, { "key": "nahrung", "label": "Nahrung", "n": 3, "n_hot": 1 }, { "key": "material", "label": "Material und Ersatzteile", "n": 0, "n_hot": 0 } ], "monitors": { "de_oil_emergency_stock": { "key": "de_oil_emergency_stock", "label": "Pflichtvorrat \u00d6l Deutschland (EU-Notstandsreserve)", "unit": "kt", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "decimals": 0, "note": "Die Menge, die der Erd\u00f6lbevorratungsverband und die Wirtschaft als EU-Notstandsreserve halten \u2014 nicht der Gesamtbestand, sondern der Teil, der rechtlich gebunden und im Krisenfall freigebbar ist. Wenig ist hier die Gefahr. Die Reihe ist die Z\u00e4hlergr\u00f6\u00dfe der Durchhalterechnung.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_stk_oilm, Schlussbestand EU-Notstandsreserve, monatlich ab 2013", "danger": "low", "start": "2013-01-01", "n": 164, "raw": 20086.0, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 98.17, "status": "aktiv", "tau": -0.89, "spark": [ [ "2017-12-01", 95.0 ], [ "2018-01-01", 93.44 ], [ "2018-02-01", 91.94 ], [ "2018-03-01", 98.41 ], [ "2018-04-01", 87.5 ], [ "2018-05-01", 83.08 ], [ "2018-06-01", 80.3 ], [ "2018-07-01", 83.58 ], [ "2018-08-01", 83.82 ], [ "2018-09-01", 85.51 ], [ "2018-10-01", 80.0 ], [ "2018-11-01", 95.77 ], [ "2018-12-01", 84.72 ], [ "2019-01-01", 0.0 ], [ "2019-02-01", 0.0 ], [ "2019-03-01", 0.0 ], [ "2019-04-01", 3.95 ], [ "2019-05-01", 1.3 ], [ "2019-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "2019-07-01", 2.53 ], [ "2019-08-01", 2.5 ], [ "2019-09-01", 4.94 ], [ "2019-10-01", 4.88 ], [ "2019-11-01", 9.64 ], [ "2019-12-01", 10.71 ], [ "2020-01-01", 51.76 ], [ "2020-02-01", 53.49 ], [ "2020-03-01", 68.97 ], [ "2020-04-01", 71.59 ], [ "2020-05-01", 64.04 ], [ "2020-06-01", 52.22 ], [ "2020-07-01", 46.15 ], [ "2020-08-01", 51.09 ], [ "2020-09-01", 45.16 ], [ "2020-10-01", 51.06 ], [ "2020-11-01", 57.89 ], [ "2020-12-01", 69.79 ], [ "2021-01-01", 74.23 ], [ "2021-02-01", 73.47 ], [ "2021-03-01", 70.71 ], [ "2021-04-01", 64.0 ], [ "2021-05-01", 60.4 ], [ "2021-06-01", 68.63 ], [ "2021-07-01", 69.9 ], [ "2021-08-01", 73.08 ], [ "2021-09-01", 79.05 ], [ "2021-10-01", 89.62 ], [ "2021-11-01", 95.33 ], [ "2021-12-01", 99.07 ], [ "2022-01-01", 98.17 ], [ "2022-02-01", 99.09 ], [ "2022-03-01", 99.1 ], [ "2022-04-01", 99.11 ], [ "2022-05-01", 98.23 ], [ "2022-06-01", 97.37 ], [ "2022-07-01", 96.52 ], [ "2022-08-01", 97.41 ], [ "2022-09-01", 94.02 ], [ "2022-10-01", 94.07 ], [ "2022-11-01", 92.44 ], [ "2022-12-01", 91.67 ], [ "2023-01-01", 90.91 ], [ "2023-02-01", 90.98 ], [ "2023-03-01", 98.37 ], [ "2023-04-01", 99.19 ], [ "2023-05-01", 98.4 ], [ "2023-06-01", 97.62 ], [ "2023-07-01", 99.21 ], [ "2023-08-01", 99.22 ], [ "2023-09-01", 99.22 ], [ "2023-10-01", 99.23 ], [ "2023-11-01", 99.24 ], [ "2023-12-01", 99.24 ], [ "2024-01-01", 99.25 ], [ "2024-02-01", 98.51 ], [ "2024-03-01", 98.52 ], [ "2024-04-01", 99.26 ], [ "2024-05-01", 99.27 ], [ "2024-06-01", 99.28 ], [ "2024-07-01", 98.56 ], [ "2024-08-01", 99.29 ], [ "2024-09-01", 99.29 ], [ "2024-10-01", 99.3 ], [ "2024-11-01", 99.3 ], [ "2024-12-01", 99.31 ], [ "2025-01-01", 99.31 ], [ "2025-02-01", 99.32 ], [ "2025-03-01", 99.32 ], [ "2025-04-01", 99.32 ], [ "2025-05-01", 99.33 ], [ "2025-06-01", 98.0 ], [ "2025-07-01", 98.68 ], [ "2025-08-01", 99.34 ], [ "2025-09-01", 99.35 ], [ "2025-10-01", 97.4 ], [ "2025-11-01", 98.71 ], [ "2025-12-01", 96.15 ], [ "2026-01-01", 95.54 ], [ "2026-02-01", 94.3 ], [ "2026-03-01", 98.11 ], [ "2026-04-01", 99.38 ], [ "2026-05-01", 99.38 ], [ "2026-06-01", 99.38 ], [ "2026-07-01", 99.39 ], [ "2026-08-01", 98.17 ] ] }, "de_oil_total_stock": { "key": "de_oil_total_stock", "label": "Gesamt\u00f6lbestand Deutschland", "unit": "kt", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "decimals": 0, "note": "Alle Best\u00e4nde zusammen, also Pflichtvorrat plus kommerzielle Lagerhaltung der Raffinerien und des Handels. Die Differenz zum Pflichtvorrat ist der betriebliche Puffer \u2014 er schrumpft in Knappheitsphasen zuerst, weil Lagerhaltung Geld kostet, und ist deshalb der fr\u00fchere Indikator von beiden.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_stk_oilm, Schlussbestand gesamt, ab 2013", "danger": "low", "start": "2013-01-01", "n": 164, "raw": 30838.0, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 90.24, "status": "aktiv", "tau": -0.61, "spark": [ [ "2017-12-01", 80.0 ], [ "2018-01-01", 52.46 ], [ "2018-02-01", 72.58 ], [ "2018-03-01", 68.25 ], [ "2018-04-01", 70.31 ], [ "2018-05-01", 61.54 ], [ "2018-06-01", 75.76 ], [ "2018-07-01", 76.12 ], [ "2018-08-01", 89.71 ], [ "2018-09-01", 94.2 ], [ "2018-10-01", 91.43 ], [ "2018-11-01", 92.96 ], [ "2018-12-01", 88.89 ], [ "2019-01-01", 69.86 ], [ "2019-02-01", 60.81 ], [ "2019-03-01", 36.0 ], [ "2019-04-01", 89.47 ], [ "2019-05-01", 83.12 ], [ "2019-06-01", 14.1 ], [ "2019-07-01", 32.91 ], [ "2019-08-01", 43.75 ], [ "2019-09-01", 64.2 ], [ "2019-10-01", 78.05 ], [ "2019-11-01", 86.75 ], [ "2019-12-01", 83.33 ], [ "2020-01-01", 84.71 ], [ "2020-02-01", 90.7 ], [ "2020-03-01", 94.25 ], [ "2020-04-01", 98.86 ], [ "2020-05-01", 86.52 ], [ "2020-06-01", 88.89 ], [ "2020-07-01", 95.6 ], [ "2020-08-01", 79.35 ], [ "2020-09-01", 97.85 ], [ "2020-10-01", 98.94 ], [ "2020-11-01", 92.63 ], [ "2020-12-01", 96.88 ], [ "2021-01-01", 62.89 ], [ "2021-02-01", 88.78 ], [ "2021-03-01", 91.92 ], [ "2021-04-01", 83.0 ], [ "2021-05-01", 70.3 ], [ "2021-06-01", 88.24 ], [ "2021-07-01", 75.73 ], [ "2021-08-01", 82.69 ], [ "2021-09-01", 99.05 ], [ "2021-10-01", 99.06 ], [ "2021-11-01", 96.26 ], [ "2021-12-01", 99.07 ], [ "2022-01-01", 95.41 ], [ "2022-02-01", 99.09 ], [ "2022-03-01", 97.3 ], [ "2022-04-01", 92.86 ], [ "2022-05-01", 90.27 ], [ "2022-06-01", 96.49 ], [ "2022-07-01", 99.13 ], [ "2022-08-01", 99.14 ], [ "2022-09-01", 96.58 ], [ "2022-10-01", 88.14 ], [ "2022-11-01", 92.44 ], [ "2022-12-01", 83.33 ], [ "2023-01-01", 51.24 ], [ "2023-02-01", 69.67 ], [ "2023-03-01", 98.37 ], [ "2023-04-01", 99.19 ], [ "2023-05-01", 94.4 ], [ "2023-06-01", 99.21 ], [ "2023-07-01", 95.28 ], [ "2023-08-01", 94.53 ], [ "2023-09-01", 99.22 ], [ "2023-10-01", 99.23 ], [ "2023-11-01", 99.24 ], [ "2023-12-01", 96.97 ], [ "2024-01-01", 96.99 ], [ "2024-02-01", 97.76 ], [ "2024-03-01", 94.81 ], [ "2024-04-01", 94.85 ], [ "2024-05-01", 94.89 ], [ "2024-06-01", 92.75 ], [ "2024-07-01", 94.24 ], [ "2024-08-01", 91.43 ], [ "2024-09-01", 97.87 ], [ "2024-10-01", 97.89 ], [ "2024-11-01", 97.9 ], [ "2024-12-01", 91.67 ], [ "2025-01-01", 96.55 ], [ "2025-02-01", 98.63 ], [ "2025-03-01", 99.32 ], [ "2025-04-01", 99.32 ], [ "2025-05-01", 97.99 ], [ "2025-06-01", 98.67 ], [ "2025-07-01", 99.34 ], [ "2025-08-01", 98.68 ], [ "2025-09-01", 99.35 ], [ "2025-10-01", 98.7 ], [ "2025-11-01", 98.06 ], [ "2025-12-01", 97.44 ], [ "2026-01-01", 81.53 ], [ "2026-02-01", 84.18 ], [ "2026-03-01", 88.05 ], [ "2026-04-01", 88.75 ], [ "2026-05-01", 90.06 ], [ "2026-06-01", 96.3 ], [ "2026-07-01", 82.21 ], [ "2026-08-01", 90.24 ] ] }, "eu_oil_emergency_stock": { "key": "eu_oil_emergency_stock", "label": "Pflichtvorrat \u00d6l EU27", "unit": "kt", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "decimals": 0, "note": "Dieselbe Gr\u00f6\u00dfe f\u00fcr das EU-Aggregat. Der Vergleich trennt eine deutsche Entscheidung von einer europ\u00e4ischen Entwicklung.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_stk_oilm, EU27 (2020), ab 2013", "danger": "low", "start": "2013-01-01", "n": 162, "raw": 106189.0, "as_of": "2026-06-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 88.89, "status": "erhoeht", "tau": 0.15, "spark": [ [ "2017-12-01", 98.33 ], [ "2018-01-01", 98.36 ], [ "2018-02-01", 96.77 ], [ "2018-03-01", 92.06 ], [ "2018-04-01", 73.44 ], [ "2018-05-01", 72.31 ], [ "2018-06-01", 93.94 ], [ "2018-07-01", 74.63 ], [ "2018-08-01", 95.59 ], [ "2018-09-01", 95.65 ], [ "2018-10-01", 95.71 ], [ "2018-11-01", 95.77 ], [ "2018-12-01", 97.22 ], [ "2019-01-01", 82.19 ], [ "2019-02-01", 62.16 ], [ "2019-03-01", 36.0 ], [ "2019-04-01", 81.58 ], [ "2019-05-01", 79.22 ], [ "2019-06-01", 82.05 ], [ "2019-07-01", 86.08 ], [ "2019-08-01", 83.75 ], [ "2019-09-01", 91.36 ], [ "2019-10-01", 85.37 ], [ "2019-11-01", 89.16 ], [ "2019-12-01", 88.1 ], [ "2020-01-01", 97.65 ], [ "2020-02-01", 98.84 ], [ "2020-03-01", 86.21 ], [ "2020-04-01", 63.64 ], [ "2020-05-01", 67.42 ], [ "2020-06-01", 88.89 ], [ "2020-07-01", 63.74 ], [ "2020-08-01", 66.3 ], [ "2020-09-01", 84.95 ], [ "2020-10-01", 47.87 ], [ "2020-11-01", 52.63 ], [ "2020-12-01", 98.96 ], [ "2021-01-01", 90.72 ], [ "2021-02-01", 79.59 ], [ "2021-03-01", 93.94 ], [ "2021-04-01", 96.0 ], [ "2021-05-01", 93.07 ], [ "2021-06-01", 99.02 ], [ "2021-07-01", 99.03 ], [ "2021-08-01", 98.08 ], [ "2021-09-01", 99.05 ], [ "2021-10-01", 99.06 ], [ "2021-11-01", 98.13 ], [ "2021-12-01", 99.07 ], [ "2022-01-01", 98.17 ], [ "2022-02-01", 97.27 ], [ "2022-03-01", 99.1 ], [ "2022-04-01", 99.11 ], [ "2022-05-01", 98.23 ], [ "2022-06-01", 99.12 ], [ "2022-07-01", 95.65 ], [ "2022-08-01", 96.55 ], [ "2022-09-01", 94.02 ], [ "2022-10-01", 96.61 ], [ "2022-11-01", 92.44 ], [ "2022-12-01", 88.33 ], [ "2023-01-01", 84.3 ], [ "2023-02-01", 84.43 ], [ "2023-03-01", 86.18 ], [ "2023-04-01", 86.29 ], [ "2023-05-01", 81.6 ], [ "2023-06-01", 80.95 ], [ "2023-07-01", 80.31 ], [ "2023-08-01", 79.69 ], [ "2023-09-01", 79.84 ], [ "2023-10-01", 80.77 ], [ "2023-11-01", 80.92 ], [ "2023-12-01", 81.06 ], [ "2024-01-01", 80.45 ], [ "2024-02-01", 80.6 ], [ "2024-03-01", 80.0 ], [ "2024-04-01", 79.41 ], [ "2024-05-01", 77.37 ], [ "2024-06-01", 76.09 ], [ "2024-07-01", 81.29 ], [ "2024-08-01", 77.86 ], [ "2024-09-01", 80.85 ], [ "2024-10-01", 82.39 ], [ "2024-11-01", 82.52 ], [ "2024-12-01", 79.17 ], [ "2025-01-01", 81.38 ], [ "2025-02-01", 81.51 ], [ "2025-03-01", 80.27 ], [ "2025-04-01", 83.11 ], [ "2025-05-01", 83.89 ], [ "2025-06-01", 82.0 ], [ "2025-07-01", 84.77 ], [ "2025-08-01", 86.84 ], [ "2025-09-01", 85.62 ], [ "2025-10-01", 87.66 ], [ "2025-11-01", 86.45 ], [ "2025-12-01", 93.59 ], [ "2026-01-01", 82.17 ], [ "2026-02-01", 79.75 ], [ "2026-03-01", 84.91 ], [ "2026-04-01", 90.0 ], [ "2026-05-01", 89.44 ], [ "2026-06-01", 88.89 ] ] }, "de_diesel_stock": { "key": "de_diesel_stock", "label": "Dieselbestand Deutschland", "unit": "kt", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "decimals": 0, "note": "Gas\u00f6l und Dieselkraftstoff, der Bestand hinter dem Dieselpreis aus Ebene W. Ebene W misst den Preis-Schatten der Knappheit, diese Reihe die Knappheit selbst \u2014 sie ist die Menge, die Ernte, Lastverkehr, Heiz\u00f6l und Notstrom gleichzeitig bedient.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_stk_oilm, siec O4671 (Gas\u00f6l/Diesel), ab 2013", "danger": "low", "start": "2013-01-01", "n": 164, "raw": 10165.0, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 0.0, "status": "ruhig", "tau": 0.12, "spark": [ [ "2017-12-01", 21.67 ], [ "2018-01-01", 1.64 ], [ "2018-02-01", 29.03 ], [ "2018-03-01", 38.1 ], [ "2018-04-01", 35.94 ], [ "2018-05-01", 40.0 ], [ "2018-06-01", 28.79 ], [ "2018-07-01", 19.4 ], [ "2018-08-01", 22.06 ], [ "2018-09-01", 47.83 ], [ "2018-10-01", 81.43 ], [ "2018-11-01", 87.32 ], [ "2018-12-01", 51.39 ], [ "2019-01-01", 53.42 ], [ "2019-02-01", 60.81 ], [ "2019-03-01", 45.33 ], [ "2019-04-01", 46.05 ], [ "2019-05-01", 38.96 ], [ "2019-06-01", 5.13 ], [ "2019-07-01", 17.72 ], [ "2019-08-01", 11.25 ], [ "2019-09-01", 20.99 ], [ "2019-10-01", 42.68 ], [ "2019-11-01", 53.01 ], [ "2019-12-01", 28.57 ], [ "2020-01-01", 0.0 ], [ "2020-02-01", 13.95 ], [ "2020-03-01", 49.43 ], [ "2020-04-01", 57.95 ], [ "2020-05-01", 14.61 ], [ "2020-06-01", 14.44 ], [ "2020-07-01", 14.29 ], [ "2020-08-01", 0.0 ], [ "2020-09-01", 43.01 ], [ "2020-10-01", 45.74 ], [ "2020-11-01", 28.42 ], [ "2020-12-01", 50.0 ], [ "2021-01-01", 5.15 ], [ "2021-02-01", 21.43 ], [ "2021-03-01", 33.33 ], [ "2021-04-01", 18.0 ], [ "2021-05-01", 0.0 ], [ "2021-06-01", 20.59 ], [ "2021-07-01", 14.56 ], [ "2021-08-01", 17.31 ], [ "2021-09-01", 49.52 ], [ "2021-10-01", 67.92 ], [ "2021-11-01", 65.42 ], [ "2021-12-01", 68.52 ], [ "2022-01-01", 53.21 ], [ "2022-02-01", 69.09 ], [ "2022-03-01", 64.86 ], [ "2022-04-01", 45.54 ], [ "2022-05-01", 61.06 ], [ "2022-06-01", 67.54 ], [ "2022-07-01", 87.83 ], [ "2022-08-01", 89.66 ], [ "2022-09-01", 88.03 ], [ "2022-10-01", 82.2 ], [ "2022-11-01", 83.19 ], [ "2022-12-01", 59.17 ], [ "2023-01-01", 0.0 ], [ "2023-02-01", 21.31 ], [ "2023-03-01", 75.61 ], [ "2023-04-01", 71.77 ], [ "2023-05-01", 58.4 ], [ "2023-06-01", 66.67 ], [ "2023-07-01", 57.48 ], [ "2023-08-01", 39.06 ], [ "2023-09-01", 61.24 ], [ "2023-10-01", 96.92 ], [ "2023-11-01", 99.24 ], [ "2023-12-01", 87.12 ], [ "2024-01-01", 57.14 ], [ "2024-02-01", 52.24 ], [ "2024-03-01", 51.11 ], [ "2024-04-01", 44.12 ], [ "2024-05-01", 35.77 ], [ "2024-06-01", 40.58 ], [ "2024-07-01", 53.96 ], [ "2024-08-01", 31.43 ], [ "2024-09-01", 54.61 ], [ "2024-10-01", 81.69 ], [ "2024-11-01", 65.03 ], [ "2024-12-01", 31.25 ], [ "2025-01-01", 31.03 ], [ "2025-02-01", 48.63 ], [ "2025-03-01", 82.31 ], [ "2025-04-01", 75.68 ], [ "2025-05-01", 76.51 ], [ "2025-06-01", 66.67 ], [ "2025-07-01", 90.07 ], [ "2025-08-01", 76.97 ], [ "2025-09-01", 94.12 ], [ "2025-10-01", 97.4 ], [ "2025-11-01", 98.06 ], [ "2025-12-01", 98.08 ], [ "2026-01-01", 0.64 ], [ "2026-02-01", 1.27 ], [ "2026-03-01", 5.66 ], [ "2026-04-01", 0.0 ], [ "2026-05-01", 0.62 ], [ "2026-06-01", 59.26 ], [ "2026-07-01", 0.0 ], [ "2026-08-01", 0.0 ] ] }, "de_oil_consumption": { "key": "de_oil_consumption", "label": "Inlandslieferungen \u00d6lprodukte Deutschland", "unit": "kt/Monat", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "decimals": 0, "note": "Die Nennergr\u00f6\u00dfe der Durchhalterechnung. Sie steht hier als eigene Kachel, weil ein steigender Vorrat bei noch schneller steigendem Verbrauch keine Verbesserung ist \u2014 die Durchhaltetage k\u00f6nnen fallen, w\u00e4hrend der Bestand w\u00e4chst.", "source": "Eurostat nrg_cb_oilm, Inlandslieferungen \u00d6lprodukte (beobachtet), monatlich ab 2013", "danger": "high", "start": "2013-01-01", "n": 164, "raw": 5867.0, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 0.61, "status": "ruhig", "tau": -0.47, "spark": [ [ "2017-12-01", 33.33 ], [ "2018-01-01", 13.11 ], [ "2018-02-01", 22.58 ], [ "2018-03-01", 65.08 ], [ "2018-04-01", 37.5 ], [ "2018-05-01", 24.62 ], [ "2018-06-01", 18.18 ], [ "2018-07-01", 43.28 ], [ "2018-08-01", 54.41 ], [ "2018-09-01", 21.74 ], [ "2018-10-01", 48.57 ], [ "2018-11-01", 23.94 ], [ "2018-12-01", 12.5 ], [ "2019-01-01", 80.82 ], [ "2019-02-01", 27.03 ], [ "2019-03-01", 33.33 ], [ "2019-04-01", 25.0 ], [ "2019-05-01", 25.97 ], [ "2019-06-01", 21.79 ], [ "2019-07-01", 94.94 ], [ "2019-08-01", 75.0 ], [ "2019-09-01", 30.86 ], [ "2019-10-01", 81.71 ], [ "2019-11-01", 33.73 ], [ "2019-12-01", 21.43 ], [ "2020-01-01", 11.76 ], [ "2020-02-01", 26.74 ], [ "2020-03-01", 54.02 ], [ "2020-04-01", 1.14 ], [ "2020-05-01", 4.49 ], [ "2020-06-01", 1.11 ], [ "2020-07-01", 28.57 ], [ "2020-08-01", 1.09 ], [ "2020-09-01", 4.3 ], [ "2020-10-01", 18.09 ], [ "2020-11-01", 2.11 ], [ "2020-12-01", 7.29 ], [ "2021-01-01", 1.03 ], [ "2021-02-01", 2.04 ], [ "2021-03-01", 7.07 ], [ "2021-04-01", 7.0 ], [ "2021-05-01", 7.92 ], [ "2021-06-01", 12.75 ], [ "2021-07-01", 16.5 ], [ "2021-08-01", 25.0 ], [ "2021-09-01", 40.95 ], [ "2021-10-01", 76.42 ], [ "2021-11-01", 40.19 ], [ "2021-12-01", 31.48 ], [ "2022-01-01", 8.26 ], [ "2022-02-01", 6.36 ], [ "2022-03-01", 25.23 ], [ "2022-04-01", 14.29 ], [ "2022-05-01", 16.81 ], [ "2022-06-01", 26.32 ], [ "2022-07-01", 33.91 ], [ "2022-08-01", 59.48 ], [ "2022-09-01", 12.82 ], [ "2022-10-01", 16.95 ], [ "2022-11-01", 17.65 ], [ "2022-12-01", 17.5 ], [ "2023-01-01", 2.48 ], [ "2023-02-01", 3.28 ], [ "2023-03-01", 23.58 ], [ "2023-04-01", 4.03 ], [ "2023-05-01", 21.6 ], [ "2023-06-01", 15.08 ], [ "2023-07-01", 11.02 ], [ "2023-08-01", 9.38 ], [ "2023-09-01", 4.65 ], [ "2023-10-01", 22.31 ], [ "2023-11-01", 10.69 ], [ "2023-12-01", 12.12 ], [ "2024-01-01", 2.26 ], [ "2024-02-01", 2.99 ], [ "2024-03-01", 7.41 ], [ "2024-04-01", 25.74 ], [ "2024-05-01", 18.25 ], [ "2024-06-01", 22.46 ], [ "2024-07-01", 28.06 ], [ "2024-08-01", 22.86 ], [ "2024-09-01", 19.15 ], [ "2024-10-01", 28.87 ], [ "2024-11-01", 8.39 ], [ "2024-12-01", 4.17 ], [ "2025-01-01", 2.76 ], [ "2025-02-01", 2.05 ], [ "2025-03-01", 6.8 ], [ "2025-04-01", 14.19 ], [ "2025-05-01", 26.17 ], [ "2025-06-01", 4.0 ], [ "2025-07-01", 29.14 ], [ "2025-08-01", 17.76 ], [ "2025-09-01", 26.8 ], [ "2025-10-01", 39.61 ], [ "2025-11-01", 7.1 ], [ "2025-12-01", 10.9 ], [ "2026-01-01", 3.18 ], [ "2026-02-01", 2.53 ], [ "2026-03-01", 3.77 ], [ "2026-04-01", 2.5 ], [ "2026-05-01", 8.7 ], [ "2026-06-01", 6.79 ], [ "2026-07-01", 1.84 ], [ "2026-08-01", 0.61 ] ] }, "wheat_stocks": { "key": "wheat_stocks", "label": "Weltweizenbest\u00e4nde, Jahresende", "unit": "kt", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Summe der Endbest\u00e4nde aller meldenden L\u00e4nder zum Ende des Marktjahres. Es gibt in der USDA-Tabelle keine Weltzeile; die Summe ist zul\u00e4ssig, weil jedes Land seinen eigenen Bestand meldet. Die absolute Menge sagt f\u00fcr sich wenig \u2014 erst geteilt durch den Verbrauch wird sie zur Reichweite.", "source": "USDA PSD, Ending Stocks Wheat, Marktjahre ab 1960, monatlich revidiert (j\u00fcngster Vintage je Jahr)", "danger": "low", "start": "1960-06-01", "n": 67, "raw": 276038.0, "as_of": "2026-06-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 0.0, "status": "ruhig", "tau": 0.22, "spark": [ [ "1979-06-01", 35.0 ], [ "1980-06-01", 38.1 ], [ "1981-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "1982-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "1983-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "1984-06-01", 4.0 ], [ "1985-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "1986-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "1987-06-01", 7.14 ], [ "1988-06-01", 10.34 ], [ "1989-06-01", 3.33 ], [ "1990-06-01", 6.45 ], [ "1991-06-01", 12.5 ], [ "1992-06-01", 3.03 ], [ "1993-06-01", 5.88 ], [ "1994-06-01", 11.43 ], [ "1995-06-01", 11.11 ], [ "1996-06-01", 24.32 ], [ "1997-06-01", 10.53 ], [ "1998-06-01", 5.13 ], [ "1999-06-01", 12.5 ], [ "2000-06-01", 9.76 ], [ "2001-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "2002-06-01", 2.33 ], [ "2003-06-01", 9.09 ], [ "2004-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "2005-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "2006-06-01", 2.13 ], [ "2007-06-01", 2.08 ], [ "2008-06-01", 8.16 ], [ "2009-06-01", 8.0 ], [ "2010-06-01", 13.73 ], [ "2011-06-01", 3.85 ], [ "2012-06-01", 94.34 ], [ "2013-06-01", 88.89 ], [ "2014-06-01", 89.09 ], [ "2015-06-01", 76.79 ], [ "2016-06-01", 71.93 ], [ "2017-06-01", 72.41 ], [ "2018-06-01", 98.31 ], [ "2019-06-01", 96.67 ], [ "2020-06-01", 96.72 ], [ "2021-06-01", 96.77 ], [ "2022-06-01", 96.83 ], [ "2023-06-01", 90.62 ], [ "2024-06-01", 50.77 ], [ "2025-06-01", 0.0 ], [ "2026-06-01", 0.0 ] ] }, "wheat_use": { "key": "wheat_use", "label": "Weltweizenverbrauch", "unit": "kt", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Inlandsverbrauch aller L\u00e4nder zusammen \u2014 Nahrung, Futter und industrielle Verwendung. Die Reihe steigt seit sechs Jahrzehnten praktisch monoton; genau deshalb ist ihr Perzentilrang f\u00fcr sich genommen nichtssagend und erscheint hier nur als Nenner der Reichweite.", "source": "USDA PSD, Domestic Consumption Wheat, ab 1960", "danger": "high", "start": "1960-06-01", "n": 67, "raw": 823729.0, "as_of": "2026-06-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 100.0, "status": "aktiv", "tau": 0.3, "spark": [ [ "1979-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1980-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1981-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1982-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1983-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1984-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1985-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1986-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1987-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1988-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1989-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1990-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1991-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1992-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1993-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1994-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1995-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1996-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1997-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1998-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "1999-06-01", 97.5 ], [ "2000-06-01", 97.56 ], [ "2001-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2002-06-01", 97.67 ], [ "2003-06-01", 97.73 ], [ "2004-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2005-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2006-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2007-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2009-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2010-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2011-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2012-06-01", 1.89 ], [ "2013-06-01", 3.7 ], [ "2014-06-01", 5.45 ], [ "2015-06-01", 23.21 ], [ "2016-06-01", 28.07 ], [ "2017-06-01", 27.59 ], [ "2018-06-01", 1.69 ], [ "2019-06-01", 3.33 ], [ "2020-06-01", 4.92 ], [ "2021-06-01", 6.45 ], [ "2022-06-01", 7.94 ], [ "2023-06-01", 9.38 ], [ "2024-06-01", 30.77 ], [ "2025-06-01", 100.0 ], [ "2026-06-01", 100.0 ] ] }, "corn_stocks": { "key": "corn_stocks", "label": "Weltmaisbest\u00e4nde, Jahresende", "unit": "kt", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Mais ist die mengenm\u00e4\u00dfig gr\u00f6\u00dfte Getreideart und \u00fcber Futter und Ethanol am engsten an Energiepreise gekoppelt \u2014 ein Dieselschock wandert \u00fcber die Erntekosten direkt hierher.", "source": "USDA PSD, Ending Stocks Corn, ab 1960", "danger": "low", "start": "1960-09-01", "n": 67, "raw": 280440.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 0.0, "status": "ruhig", "tau": 0.13, "spark": [ [ "1979-09-01", 80.0 ], [ "1980-09-01", 57.14 ], [ "1981-09-01", 95.45 ], [ "1982-09-01", 91.3 ], [ "1983-09-01", 91.67 ], [ "1984-09-01", 88.0 ], [ "1985-09-01", 88.46 ], [ "1986-09-01", 92.59 ], [ "1987-09-01", 92.86 ], [ "1988-09-01", 96.55 ], [ "1989-09-01", 83.33 ], [ "1990-09-01", 77.42 ], [ "1991-09-01", 75.0 ], [ "1992-09-01", 81.82 ], [ "1993-09-01", 94.12 ], [ "1994-09-01", 97.14 ], [ "1995-09-01", 94.44 ], [ "1996-09-01", 91.89 ], [ "1997-09-01", 89.47 ], [ "1998-09-01", 87.18 ], [ "1999-09-01", 85.0 ], [ "2000-09-01", 51.22 ], [ "2001-09-01", 50.0 ], [ "2002-09-01", 48.84 ], [ "2003-09-01", 47.73 ], [ "2004-09-01", 48.89 ], [ "2005-09-01", 47.83 ], [ "2006-09-01", 25.53 ], [ "2007-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "2008-09-01", 26.53 ], [ "2009-09-01", 38.0 ], [ "2010-09-01", 47.06 ], [ "2011-09-01", 50.0 ], [ "2012-09-01", 18.87 ], [ "2013-09-01", 1.85 ], [ "2014-09-01", 1.82 ], [ "2015-09-01", 3.57 ], [ "2016-09-01", 1.75 ], [ "2017-09-01", 3.45 ], [ "2018-09-01", 3.39 ], [ "2019-09-01", 60.0 ], [ "2020-09-01", 59.02 ], [ "2021-09-01", 64.52 ], [ "2022-09-01", 61.9 ], [ "2023-09-01", 60.94 ], [ "2024-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "2025-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "2026-09-01", 0.0 ] ] }, "corn_use": { "key": "corn_use", "label": "Weltmaisverbrauch", "unit": "kt", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Nenner der Maisreichweite.", "source": "USDA PSD, Domestic Consumption Corn, ab 1960", "danger": "high", "start": "1960-09-01", "n": 67, "raw": 1313129.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 100.0, "status": "aktiv", "tau": 0.26, "spark": [ [ "1979-09-01", 50.0 ], [ "1980-09-01", 95.24 ], [ "1981-09-01", 4.55 ], [ "1982-09-01", 8.7 ], [ "1983-09-01", 12.5 ], [ "1984-09-01", 16.0 ], [ "1985-09-01", 11.54 ], [ "1986-09-01", 11.11 ], [ "1987-09-01", 14.29 ], [ "1988-09-01", 17.24 ], [ "1989-09-01", 10.0 ], [ "1990-09-01", 3.23 ], [ "1991-09-01", 3.12 ], [ "1992-09-01", 9.09 ], [ "1993-09-01", 14.71 ], [ "1994-09-01", 22.86 ], [ "1995-09-01", 25.0 ], [ "1996-09-01", 37.84 ], [ "1997-09-01", 39.47 ], [ "1998-09-01", 10.26 ], [ "1999-09-01", 12.5 ], [ "2000-09-01", 48.78 ], [ "2001-09-01", 47.62 ], [ "2002-09-01", 51.16 ], [ "2003-09-01", 52.27 ], [ "2004-09-01", 51.11 ], [ "2005-09-01", 50.0 ], [ "2006-09-01", 93.62 ], [ "2007-09-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-09-01", 95.92 ], [ "2009-09-01", 88.0 ], [ "2010-09-01", 98.04 ], [ "2011-09-01", 94.23 ], [ "2012-09-01", 98.11 ], [ "2013-09-01", 98.15 ], [ "2014-09-01", 94.55 ], [ "2015-09-01", 94.64 ], [ "2016-09-01", 98.25 ], [ "2017-09-01", 98.28 ], [ "2018-09-01", 98.31 ], [ "2019-09-01", 43.33 ], [ "2020-09-01", 44.26 ], [ "2021-09-01", 41.94 ], [ "2022-09-01", 46.03 ], [ "2023-09-01", 46.88 ], [ "2024-09-01", 100.0 ], [ "2025-09-01", 100.0 ], [ "2026-09-01", 100.0 ] ] }, "rice_stocks": { "key": "rice_stocks", "label": "Weltreisbest\u00e4nde, Jahresende", "unit": "kt", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Reis ist das Grundnahrungsmittel f\u00fcr rund die H\u00e4lfte der Menschheit und der am d\u00fcnnsten gehandelte Weltmarkt der drei: Nur etwa ein Zehntel der Welternte \u00fcberquert eine Grenze. Deshalb schlagen Exportverbote hier am schnellsten durch \u2014 2008 und erneut 2023/24 nachweisbar.", "source": "USDA PSD, Ending Stocks Rice Milled, ab 1960", "danger": "low", "start": "1960-08-01", "n": 67, "raw": 198498.0, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 0.0, "status": "ruhig", "tau": 0.02, "spark": [ [ "1979-08-01", 10.0 ], [ "1980-08-01", 14.29 ], [ "1981-08-01", 36.36 ], [ "1982-08-01", 56.52 ], [ "1983-08-01", 91.67 ], [ "1984-08-01", 60.0 ], [ "1985-08-01", 57.69 ], [ "1986-08-01", 62.96 ], [ "1987-08-01", 89.29 ], [ "1988-08-01", 62.07 ], [ "1989-08-01", 53.33 ], [ "1990-08-01", 64.52 ], [ "1991-08-01", 50.0 ], [ "1992-08-01", 51.52 ], [ "1993-08-01", 61.76 ], [ "1994-08-01", 40.0 ], [ "1995-08-01", 41.67 ], [ "1996-08-01", 45.95 ], [ "1997-08-01", 44.74 ], [ "1998-08-01", 94.87 ], [ "1999-08-01", 47.5 ], [ "2000-08-01", 46.34 ], [ "2001-08-01", 50.0 ], [ "2002-08-01", 51.16 ], [ "2003-08-01", 52.27 ], [ "2004-08-01", 48.89 ], [ "2005-08-01", 50.0 ], [ "2006-08-01", 53.19 ], [ "2007-08-01", 64.58 ], [ "2008-08-01", 46.94 ], [ "2009-08-01", 46.0 ], [ "2010-08-01", 43.14 ], [ "2011-08-01", 57.69 ], [ "2012-08-01", 30.19 ], [ "2013-08-01", 29.63 ], [ "2014-08-01", 27.27 ], [ "2015-08-01", 71.43 ], [ "2016-08-01", 24.56 ], [ "2017-08-01", 24.14 ], [ "2018-08-01", 23.73 ], [ "2019-08-01", 23.33 ], [ "2020-08-01", 22.95 ], [ "2021-08-01", 22.58 ], [ "2022-08-01", 26.98 ], [ "2023-08-01", 32.81 ], [ "2024-08-01", 27.69 ], [ "2025-08-01", 0.0 ], [ "2026-08-01", 0.0 ] ] }, "rice_use": { "key": "rice_use", "label": "Weltreisverbrauch", "unit": "kt", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "decimals": 0, "note": "Nenner der Reisreichweite.", "source": "USDA PSD, Domestic Consumption Rice Milled, ab 1960", "danger": "high", "start": "1960-08-01", "n": 67, "raw": 536200.0, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 100.0, "status": "aktiv", "tau": 0.06, "spark": [ [ "1979-08-01", 90.0 ], [ "1980-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1981-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1982-08-01", 82.61 ], [ "1983-08-01", 8.33 ], [ "1984-08-01", 12.0 ], [ "1985-08-01", 15.38 ], [ "1986-08-01", 18.52 ], [ "1987-08-01", 17.86 ], [ "1988-08-01", 13.79 ], [ "1989-08-01", 26.67 ], [ "1990-08-01", 22.58 ], [ "1991-08-01", 31.25 ], [ "1992-08-01", 33.33 ], [ "1993-08-01", 35.29 ], [ "1994-08-01", 57.14 ], [ "1995-08-01", 58.33 ], [ "1996-08-01", 54.05 ], [ "1997-08-01", 55.26 ], [ "1998-08-01", 5.13 ], [ "1999-08-01", 7.5 ], [ "2000-08-01", 36.59 ], [ "2001-08-01", 38.1 ], [ "2002-08-01", 34.88 ], [ "2003-08-01", 40.91 ], [ "2004-08-01", 42.22 ], [ "2005-08-01", 43.48 ], [ "2006-08-01", 44.68 ], [ "2007-08-01", 45.83 ], [ "2008-08-01", 46.94 ], [ "2009-08-01", 48.0 ], [ "2010-08-01", 49.02 ], [ "2011-08-01", 50.0 ], [ "2012-08-01", 67.92 ], [ "2013-08-01", 68.52 ], [ "2014-08-01", 69.09 ], [ "2015-08-01", 5.36 ], [ "2016-08-01", 73.68 ], [ "2017-08-01", 72.41 ], [ "2018-08-01", 67.8 ], [ "2019-08-01", 66.67 ], [ "2020-08-01", 65.57 ], [ "2021-08-01", 67.74 ], [ "2022-08-01", 69.84 ], [ "2023-08-01", 65.62 ], [ "2024-08-01", 76.92 ], [ "2025-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "2026-08-01", 100.0 ] ] } }, "reserves": [ { "key": "oil_de", "label": "Erd\u00f6l und \u00d6lprodukte, Deutschland", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "what": "Was der Pflichtvorrat abdeckt, wenn nichts mehr hereinkommt und der Verbrauch bleibt, wie er ist.", "substitution": { "grade": "B", "lead_time_days": 35, "possible": "teilweise", "note": "Roh\u00f6l ist physisch ersetzbar \u2014 es ist ein Weltmarkt mit mehreren Lieferanten. Ersetzbar ist aber nicht die LOGISTIK: Deutschland h\u00e4ngt an drei Pipelinestr\u00e4ngen und den H\u00e4fen Rotterdam, Wilhelmshaven und Triest. Eine Quellenverschiebung vom Golf zur Atlantikroute kostet vier bis f\u00fcnf Wochen Fahrzeit und setzt freien Tankerraum voraus \u2014 genau den bindet die Kap-Umleitung aus Ebene W." }, "stock_monitor": "de_oil_emergency_stock", "flow_monitor": "de_oil_consumption", "stock": 20086.0, "stock_unit": "kt", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "stock_start": "2013-01-01", "daily_use": 239.6, "daily_use_unit": "kt/Tag", "days": 83.8, "required_kt": 20374.0, "norm_basis": "Nettoeinfuhren", "norm_days": 90.0, "norm_kind": "eu_directive", "norm_label": "90 Tage Nettoeinfuhren (Richtlinie 2009/119/EG)", "norm_source": "Richtlinie 2009/119/EG Art. 3: mindestens 90 Tage durchschnittlicher t\u00e4glicher Nettoeinfuhren ODER 61 Tage Inlandsverbrauch \u2014 es gilt der H\u00d6HERE Wert", "cover": 0.99, "gap_kt": -288.0, "net_imports_daily": 226.4, "days_of_imports": 88.7, "days_vs_norm": 88.7, "days_basis": "Nettoeinfuhren", "method_caveat": "Das ist die rohe physische Reichweite, nicht die amtliche Erf\u00fcllungsmeldung. Die Berechnung nach Anhang II und III der Richtlinie rechnet Produktmengen in Roh\u00f6l\u00e4quivalent um (Faktor 1,065) und zieht vom anrechenbaren Bestand 10 % ab \u2014 beides senkt die Quote; umgekehrt darf im EU-Ausland gelagerte und per Lagervertrag gesicherte Ware angerechnet werden, was sie hebt. Eine Abweichung zur Meldung des Erd\u00f6lbevorratungsverbands ist deshalb zu erwarten und kein Widerspruch.", "track": [ [ "2013-06-01", 81.4 ], [ "2013-07-01", 80.9 ], [ "2013-08-01", 81.4 ], [ "2013-09-01", 81.3 ], [ "2013-10-01", 80.3 ], [ "2013-11-01", 80.3 ], [ "2013-12-01", 81.1 ], [ "2014-01-01", 81.0 ], [ "2014-02-01", 81.2 ], [ "2014-03-01", 80.8 ], [ "2014-04-01", 81.1 ], [ "2014-05-01", 81.5 ], [ "2014-06-01", 82.6 ], [ "2014-07-01", 82.3 ], [ "2014-08-01", 82.2 ], [ "2014-09-01", 81.9 ], [ "2014-10-01", 82.0 ], [ "2014-11-01", 82.0 ], [ "2014-12-01", 82.0 ], [ "2015-01-01", 81.9 ], [ "2015-02-01", 81.4 ], [ "2015-03-01", 82.3 ], [ "2015-04-01", 82.0 ], [ "2015-05-01", 82.5 ], [ "2015-06-01", 82.6 ], [ "2015-07-01", 82.7 ], [ "2015-08-01", 82.7 ], [ "2015-09-01", 82.8 ], [ "2015-10-01", 83.1 ], [ "2015-11-01", 83.0 ], [ "2015-12-01", 83.2 ], [ "2016-01-01", 83.4 ], [ "2016-02-01", 83.2 ], [ "2016-03-01", 83.2 ], [ "2016-04-01", 82.9 ], [ "2016-05-01", 82.6 ], [ "2016-06-01", 82.6 ], [ "2016-07-01", 82.7 ], [ "2016-08-01", 82.4 ], [ "2016-09-01", 82.7 ], [ "2016-10-01", 82.4 ], [ "2016-11-01", 82.0 ], [ "2016-12-01", 81.5 ], [ "2017-01-01", 81.7 ], [ "2017-02-01", 81.4 ], [ "2017-03-01", 81.1 ], [ "2017-04-01", 80.9 ], [ "2017-05-01", 79.7 ], [ "2017-06-01", 79.6 ], [ "2017-07-01", 78.6 ], [ "2017-08-01", 78.2 ], [ "2017-09-01", 77.9 ], [ "2017-10-01", 77.7 ], [ "2017-11-01", 77.6 ], [ "2017-12-01", 77.8 ], [ "2018-01-01", 78.1 ], [ "2018-02-01", 77.9 ], [ "2018-03-01", 78.1 ], [ "2018-04-01", 78.5 ], [ "2018-05-01", 79.5 ], [ "2018-06-01", 80.4 ], [ "2018-07-01", 80.3 ], [ "2018-08-01", 80.6 ], [ "2018-09-01", 80.9 ], [ "2018-10-01", 81.3 ], [ "2018-11-01", 81.4 ], [ "2018-12-01", 82.1 ], [ "2019-01-01", 85.4 ], [ "2019-02-01", 86.1 ], [ "2019-03-01", 88.0 ], [ "2019-04-01", 85.6 ], [ "2019-05-01", 86.9 ], [ "2019-06-01", 89.6 ], [ "2019-07-01", 87.2 ], [ "2019-08-01", 87.2 ], [ "2019-09-01", 86.6 ], [ "2019-10-01", 86.6 ], [ "2019-11-01", 84.7 ], [ "2019-12-01", 84.4 ], [ "2020-01-01", 83.1 ], [ "2020-02-01", 83.4 ], [ "2020-03-01", 82.6 ], [ "2020-04-01", 83.2 ], [ "2020-05-01", 84.0 ], [ "2020-06-01", 85.2 ], [ "2020-07-01", 86.1 ], [ "2020-08-01", 87.4 ], [ "2020-09-01", 88.3 ], [ "2020-10-01", 89.0 ], [ "2020-11-01", 89.9 ], [ "2020-12-01", 90.1 ], [ "2021-01-01", 91.7 ], [ "2021-02-01", 93.7 ], [ "2021-03-01", 95.0 ], [ "2021-04-01", 95.2 ], [ "2021-05-01", 95.6 ], [ "2021-06-01", 95.1 ], [ "2021-07-01", 95.5 ], [ "2021-08-01", 94.5 ], [ "2021-09-01", 93.2 ], [ "2021-10-01", 91.4 ], [ "2021-11-01", 90.1 ], [ "2021-12-01", 88.7 ], [ "2022-01-01", 87.6 ], [ "2022-02-01", 86.0 ], [ "2022-03-01", 84.1 ], [ "2022-04-01", 83.5 ], [ "2022-05-01", 83.1 ], [ "2022-06-01", 82.8 ], [ "2022-07-01", 82.5 ], [ "2022-08-01", 82.1 ], [ "2022-09-01", 83.4 ], [ "2022-10-01", 84.1 ], [ "2022-11-01", 85.1 ], [ "2022-12-01", 85.9 ], [ "2023-01-01", 86.8 ], [ "2023-02-01", 87.1 ], [ "2023-03-01", 85.7 ], [ "2023-04-01", 85.2 ], [ "2023-05-01", 85.3 ], [ "2023-06-01", 86.0 ], [ "2023-07-01", 86.2 ], [ "2023-08-01", 87.2 ], [ "2023-09-01", 87.0 ], [ "2023-10-01", 85.9 ], [ "2023-11-01", 86.2 ], [ "2023-12-01", 86.3 ], [ "2024-01-01", 85.2 ], [ "2024-02-01", 85.8 ], [ "2024-03-01", 86.4 ], [ "2024-04-01", 85.4 ], [ "2024-05-01", 85.7 ], [ "2024-06-01", 85.4 ], [ "2024-07-01", 85.1 ], [ "2024-08-01", 84.6 ], [ "2024-09-01", 83.7 ], [ "2024-10-01", 82.9 ], [ "2024-11-01", 82.7 ], [ "2024-12-01", 83.0 ], [ "2025-01-01", 82.6 ], [ "2025-02-01", 82.2 ], [ "2025-03-01", 81.2 ], [ "2025-04-01", 81.2 ], [ "2025-05-01", 80.9 ], [ "2025-06-01", 81.9 ], [ "2025-07-01", 81.9 ], [ "2025-08-01", 82.0 ], [ "2025-09-01", 81.7 ], [ "2025-10-01", 81.8 ], [ "2025-11-01", 81.9 ], [ "2025-12-01", 81.7 ], [ "2026-01-01", 81.7 ], [ "2026-02-01", 81.7 ], [ "2026-03-01", 82.0 ], [ "2026-04-01", 81.3 ], [ "2026-05-01", 81.0 ], [ "2026-06-01", 80.3 ], [ "2026-07-01", 81.5 ], [ "2026-08-01", 83.8 ] ], "rank": 63.5, "min": { "date": "2017-11-01", "days": 77.6 }, "decade_delta": { "years": 10, "from": "2016-08-01", "from_days": 82.4, "delta": 1.4 }, "binding": "Nettoeinfuhren", "binding_cover": 0.99, "status": "aktiv" }, { "key": "oil_eu", "label": "Erd\u00f6l und \u00d6lprodukte, EU27", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "what": "Dieselbe Rechnung f\u00fcr das Aggregat. Der Vergleich beider Deckungsgrade sagt, ob eine deutsche L\u00fccke im Binnenmarkt auffangbar w\u00e4re.", "substitution": { "grade": "C", "lead_time_days": 21, "possible": "teilweise", "note": "Innerhalb der EU sind Best\u00e4nde im Krisenfall \u00fcber die IEA-Koordination und bilaterale Lagerabkommen verschiebbar \u2014 rechtlich vorgesehen, aber seit Gr\u00fcndung der IEA nur viermal ausgel\u00f6st (1991, 2005, 2011, 2022). Die Vorlaufzeit ist deshalb eher institutionell als physisch." }, "stock_monitor": "eu_oil_emergency_stock", "flow_monitor": null, "stock": 106189.0, "stock_unit": "kt", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "stock_start": "2013-01-01", "daily_use": 1230.2, "daily_use_unit": "kt/Tag", "days": 86.3, "required_kt": 112021.0, "norm_basis": "Nettoeinfuhren", "norm_days": 90.0, "norm_kind": "eu_directive", "norm_label": "90 Tage Nettoeinfuhren (Richtlinie 2009/119/EG)", "norm_source": "Richtlinie 2009/119/EG Art. 3: mindestens 90 Tage durchschnittlicher t\u00e4glicher Nettoeinfuhren ODER 61 Tage Inlandsverbrauch \u2014 es gilt der H\u00d6HERE Wert", "cover": 0.95, "gap_kt": -5832.0, "net_imports_daily": 1244.7, "days_of_imports": 85.3, "days_vs_norm": 85.3, "days_basis": "Nettoeinfuhren", "method_caveat": "Das ist die rohe physische Reichweite, nicht die amtliche Erf\u00fcllungsmeldung. Die Berechnung nach Anhang II und III der Richtlinie rechnet Produktmengen in Roh\u00f6l\u00e4quivalent um (Faktor 1,065) und zieht vom anrechenbaren Bestand 10 % ab \u2014 beides senkt die Quote; umgekehrt darf im EU-Ausland gelagerte und per Lagervertrag gesicherte Ware angerechnet werden, was sie hebt. Eine Abweichung zur Meldung des Erd\u00f6lbevorratungsverbands ist deshalb zu erwarten und kein Widerspruch.", "track": [ [ "2013-06-01", 92.9 ], [ "2013-07-01", 92.0 ], [ "2013-08-01", 91.6 ], [ "2013-09-01", 91.6 ], [ "2013-10-01", 90.9 ], [ "2013-11-01", 90.5 ], [ "2013-12-01", 89.6 ], [ "2014-01-01", 89.8 ], [ "2014-02-01", 89.5 ], [ "2014-03-01", 89.7 ], [ "2014-04-01", 89.9 ], [ "2014-05-01", 90.5 ], [ "2014-06-01", 89.9 ], [ "2014-07-01", 89.2 ], [ "2014-08-01", 89.5 ], [ "2014-09-01", 89.7 ], [ "2014-10-01", 89.3 ], [ "2014-11-01", 90.2 ], [ "2014-12-01", 90.0 ], [ "2015-01-01", 89.6 ], [ "2015-02-01", 90.1 ], [ "2015-03-01", 91.4 ], [ "2015-04-01", 90.6 ], [ "2015-05-01", 90.7 ], [ "2015-06-01", 90.5 ], [ "2015-07-01", 89.7 ], [ "2015-08-01", 89.9 ], [ "2015-09-01", 90.1 ], [ "2015-10-01", 89.8 ], [ "2015-11-01", 89.9 ], [ "2015-12-01", 89.7 ], [ "2016-01-01", 90.6 ], [ "2016-02-01", 91.2 ], [ "2016-03-01", 91.1 ], [ "2016-04-01", 91.2 ], [ "2016-05-01", 90.0 ], [ "2016-06-01", 89.6 ], [ "2016-07-01", 89.9 ], [ "2016-08-01", 90.5 ], [ "2016-09-01", 89.8 ], [ "2016-10-01", 87.6 ], [ "2016-11-01", 88.1 ], [ "2016-12-01", 87.4 ], [ "2017-01-01", 89.2 ], [ "2017-02-01", 90.0 ], [ "2017-03-01", 89.9 ], [ "2017-04-01", 89.6 ], [ "2017-05-01", 88.0 ], [ "2017-06-01", 86.7 ], [ "2017-07-01", 86.7 ], [ "2017-08-01", 84.9 ], [ "2017-09-01", 84.8 ], [ "2017-10-01", 83.9 ], [ "2017-11-01", 84.7 ], [ "2017-12-01", 83.6 ], [ "2018-01-01", 82.7 ], [ "2018-02-01", 82.9 ], [ "2018-03-01", 83.7 ], [ "2018-04-01", 84.4 ], [ "2018-05-01", 84.6 ], [ "2018-06-01", 83.8 ], [ "2018-07-01", 84.7 ], [ "2018-08-01", 83.6 ], [ "2018-09-01", 83.6 ], [ "2018-10-01", 83.5 ], [ "2018-11-01", 83.6 ], [ "2018-12-01", 83.6 ], [ "2019-01-01", 84.4 ], [ "2019-02-01", 85.5 ], [ "2019-03-01", 86.9 ], [ "2019-04-01", 84.9 ], [ "2019-05-01", 85.1 ], [ "2019-06-01", 85.1 ], [ "2019-07-01", 84.6 ], [ "2019-08-01", 85.0 ], [ "2019-09-01", 84.2 ], [ "2019-10-01", 84.7 ], [ "2019-11-01", 84.5 ], [ "2019-12-01", 84.6 ], [ "2020-01-01", 84.2 ], [ "2020-02-01", 84.1 ], [ "2020-03-01", 85.7 ], [ "2020-04-01", 88.8 ], [ "2020-05-01", 90.0 ], [ "2020-06-01", 90.2 ], [ "2020-07-01", 92.3 ], [ "2020-08-01", 93.4 ], [ "2020-09-01", 93.4 ], [ "2020-10-01", 96.0 ], [ "2020-11-01", 96.9 ], [ "2020-12-01", 95.0 ], [ "2021-01-01", 97.3 ], [ "2021-02-01", 99.0 ], [ "2021-03-01", 98.1 ], [ "2021-04-01", 96.5 ], [ "2021-05-01", 96.0 ], [ "2021-06-01", 94.0 ], [ "2021-07-01", 89.4 ], [ "2021-08-01", 88.9 ], [ "2021-09-01", 87.2 ], [ "2021-10-01", 86.3 ], [ "2021-11-01", 85.5 ], [ "2021-12-01", 84.5 ], [ "2022-01-01", 83.9 ], [ "2022-02-01", 83.1 ], [ "2022-03-01", 80.7 ], [ "2022-04-01", 79.0 ], [ "2022-05-01", 78.9 ], [ "2022-06-01", 77.8 ], [ "2022-07-01", 79.9 ], [ "2022-08-01", 79.4 ], [ "2022-09-01", 80.0 ], [ "2022-10-01", 79.9 ], [ "2022-11-01", 81.9 ], [ "2022-12-01", 83.0 ], [ "2023-01-01", 84.7 ], [ "2023-02-01", 84.9 ], [ "2023-03-01", 84.6 ], [ "2023-04-01", 84.6 ], [ "2023-05-01", 85.3 ], [ "2023-06-01", 85.9 ], [ "2023-07-01", 88.0 ], [ "2023-08-01", 88.6 ], [ "2023-09-01", 88.7 ], [ "2023-10-01", 87.9 ], [ "2023-11-01", 87.4 ], [ "2023-12-01", 87.1 ], [ "2024-01-01", 87.3 ], [ "2024-02-01", 87.5 ], [ "2024-03-01", 87.9 ], [ "2024-04-01", 87.6 ], [ "2024-05-01", 88.1 ], [ "2024-06-01", 88.7 ], [ "2024-07-01", 87.1 ], [ "2024-08-01", 87.3 ], [ "2024-09-01", 87.1 ], [ "2024-10-01", 86.5 ], [ "2024-11-01", 86.4 ], [ "2024-12-01", 87.1 ], [ "2025-01-01", 86.9 ], [ "2025-02-01", 86.7 ], [ "2025-03-01", 86.7 ], [ "2025-04-01", 86.4 ], [ "2025-05-01", 86.1 ], [ "2025-06-01", 86.6 ], [ "2025-07-01", 86.0 ], [ "2025-08-01", 86.0 ], [ "2025-09-01", 86.1 ], [ "2025-10-01", 85.8 ], [ "2025-11-01", 86.4 ], [ "2025-12-01", 84.4 ], [ "2026-01-01", 86.5 ], [ "2026-02-01", 87.3 ], [ "2026-03-01", 86.6 ], [ "2026-04-01", 85.7 ], [ "2026-05-01", 86.2 ], [ "2026-06-01", 86.3 ] ], "rank": 38.9, "min": { "date": "2022-06-01", "days": 77.8 }, "decade_delta": { "years": 10, "from": "2016-06-01", "from_days": 89.6, "delta": -3.3 }, "binding": "Nettoeinfuhren", "binding_cover": 0.95, "status": "aktiv" }, { "key": "diesel_de", "label": "Diesel und Gas\u00f6l, Deutschland", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "what": "Die kritischste Einzelfraktion: Ohne Diesel steht die Ernte, der Lastverkehr und die Notstromversorgung gleichzeitig.", "substitution": { "grade": "B", "lead_time_days": 28, "possible": "kaum", "note": "Diesel ist kurzfristig NICHT substituierbar. Raffinerien k\u00f6nnen ihre Ausbeutestruktur nur begrenzt verschieben (Benzin gegen Diesel etwa 5 Prozentpunkte), Importe kommen aus dem Golf und aus Indien \u2014 also \u00fcber genau die Engstellen, die Ebene W misst. Der Fahrzeugpark selbst ist \u00fcber Jahrzehnte gebunden." }, "stock_monitor": "de_diesel_stock", "flow_monitor": "de_oil_consumption", "stock": 10165.0, "stock_unit": "kt", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "stock_start": "2013-01-01", "flow_share": 0.36, "flow_share_note": "Anteil der Mitteldestillate am deutschen \u00d6lproduktverbrauch, rund 36 % (Diesel, Heiz\u00f6l, Kerosin; BAFA-Mineral\u00f6labsatz). Ein gesetzter Anteil \u2014 Eurostat meldet den Verbrauch nicht nach Produkt in derselben Reihe.", "daily_use": 86.3, "daily_use_unit": "kt/Tag", "days": 117.9, "norm_kind": "none", "norm_label": "Keine Pflichtmenge f\u00fcr diese Fraktion \u2014 die Bevorratungspflicht gilt f\u00fcr \u00d6l insgesamt, nicht je Produkt", "track": [ [ "2013-06-01", 76.8 ], [ "2013-07-01", 77.2 ], [ "2013-08-01", 77.0 ], [ "2013-09-01", 75.6 ], [ "2013-10-01", 73.2 ], [ "2013-11-01", 75.8 ], [ "2013-12-01", 77.5 ], [ "2014-01-01", 77.5 ], [ "2014-02-01", 80.8 ], [ "2014-03-01", 74.8 ], [ "2014-04-01", 77.3 ], [ "2014-05-01", 78.2 ], [ "2014-06-01", 78.7 ], [ "2014-07-01", 75.1 ], [ "2014-08-01", 77.4 ], [ "2014-09-01", 74.4 ], [ "2014-10-01", 73.2 ], [ "2014-11-01", 74.7 ], [ "2014-12-01", 75.9 ], [ "2015-01-01", 75.1 ], [ "2015-02-01", 76.5 ], [ "2015-03-01", 76.0 ], [ "2015-04-01", 77.7 ], [ "2015-05-01", 84.1 ], [ "2015-06-01", 82.2 ], [ "2015-07-01", 79.2 ], [ "2015-08-01", 79.4 ], [ "2015-09-01", 77.8 ], [ "2015-10-01", 76.6 ], [ "2015-11-01", 79.7 ], [ "2015-12-01", 82.2 ], [ "2016-01-01", 85.0 ], [ "2016-02-01", 85.0 ], [ "2016-03-01", 87.3 ], [ "2016-04-01", 86.2 ], [ "2016-05-01", 88.1 ], [ "2016-06-01", 87.7 ], [ "2016-07-01", 88.9 ], [ "2016-08-01", 87.7 ], [ "2016-09-01", 86.1 ], [ "2016-10-01", 85.0 ], [ "2016-11-01", 83.8 ], [ "2016-12-01", 87.7 ], [ "2017-01-01", 88.9 ], [ "2017-02-01", 85.4 ], [ "2017-03-01", 83.3 ], [ "2017-04-01", 87.0 ], [ "2017-05-01", 82.8 ], [ "2017-06-01", 81.7 ], [ "2017-07-01", 83.8 ], [ "2017-08-01", 82.2 ], [ "2017-09-01", 79.3 ], [ "2017-10-01", 79.6 ], [ "2017-11-01", 75.8 ], [ "2017-12-01", 82.2 ], [ "2018-01-01", 86.8 ], [ "2018-02-01", 81.8 ], [ "2018-03-01", 81.3 ], [ "2018-04-01", 81.9 ], [ "2018-05-01", 81.9 ], [ "2018-06-01", 83.4 ], [ "2018-07-01", 85.0 ], [ "2018-08-01", 84.7 ], [ "2018-09-01", 82.3 ], [ "2018-10-01", 78.0 ], [ "2018-11-01", 77.5 ], [ "2018-12-01", 82.8 ], [ "2019-01-01", 81.4 ], [ "2019-02-01", 79.9 ], [ "2019-03-01", 83.0 ], [ "2019-04-01", 83.1 ], [ "2019-05-01", 84.2 ], [ "2019-06-01", 89.7 ], [ "2019-07-01", 86.3 ], [ "2019-08-01", 88.0 ], [ "2019-09-01", 85.9 ], [ "2019-10-01", 82.7 ], [ "2019-11-01", 81.6 ], [ "2019-12-01", 84.4 ], [ "2020-01-01", 90.0 ], [ "2020-02-01", 88.1 ], [ "2020-03-01", 82.6 ], [ "2020-04-01", 82.3 ], [ "2020-05-01", 88.9 ], [ "2020-06-01", 89.8 ], [ "2020-07-01", 90.7 ], [ "2020-08-01", 94.7 ], [ "2020-09-01", 89.1 ], [ "2020-10-01", 89.1 ], [ "2020-11-01", 92.4 ], [ "2020-12-01", 90.3 ], [ "2021-01-01", 99.5 ], [ "2021-02-01", 98.5 ], [ "2021-03-01", 98.1 ], [ "2021-04-01", 100.2 ], [ "2021-05-01", 104.6 ], [ "2021-06-01", 100.1 ], [ "2021-07-01", 101.8 ], [ "2021-08-01", 100.5 ], [ "2021-09-01", 94.7 ], [ "2021-10-01", 91.2 ], [ "2021-11-01", 90.5 ], [ "2021-12-01", 89.4 ], [ "2022-01-01", 90.1 ], [ "2022-02-01", 86.1 ], [ "2022-03-01", 86.8 ], [ "2022-04-01", 89.4 ], [ "2022-05-01", 87.0 ], [ "2022-06-01", 85.4 ], [ "2022-07-01", 82.0 ], [ "2022-08-01", 81.0 ], [ "2022-09-01", 82.0 ], [ "2022-10-01", 83.6 ], [ "2022-11-01", 84.0 ], [ "2022-12-01", 88.0 ], [ "2023-01-01", 99.3 ], [ "2023-02-01", 94.7 ], [ "2023-03-01", 86.9 ], [ "2023-04-01", 87.7 ], [ "2023-05-01", 89.9 ], [ "2023-06-01", 89.0 ], [ "2023-07-01", 91.2 ], [ "2023-08-01", 95.0 ], [ "2023-09-01", 92.1 ], [ "2023-10-01", 85.5 ], [ "2023-11-01", 82.5 ], [ "2023-12-01", 88.7 ], [ "2024-01-01", 93.2 ], [ "2024-02-01", 94.5 ], [ "2024-03-01", 95.3 ], [ "2024-04-01", 95.2 ], [ "2024-05-01", 97.3 ], [ "2024-06-01", 96.5 ], [ "2024-07-01", 94.5 ], [ "2024-08-01", 97.2 ], [ "2024-09-01", 93.9 ], [ "2024-10-01", 89.8 ], [ "2024-11-01", 92.6 ], [ "2024-12-01", 97.5 ], [ "2025-01-01", 97.5 ], [ "2025-02-01", 94.9 ], [ "2025-03-01", 90.3 ], [ "2025-04-01", 91.9 ], [ "2025-05-01", 91.6 ], [ "2025-06-01", 93.8 ], [ "2025-07-01", 90.4 ], [ "2025-08-01", 92.7 ], [ "2025-09-01", 89.4 ], [ "2025-10-01", 87.4 ], [ "2025-11-01", 87.5 ], [ "2025-12-01", 87.1 ], [ "2026-01-01", 106.0 ], [ "2026-02-01", 105.6 ], [ "2026-03-01", 105.0 ], [ "2026-04-01", 111.7 ], [ "2026-05-01", 109.6 ], [ "2026-06-01", 96.8 ], [ "2026-07-01", 114.4 ], [ "2026-08-01", 117.9 ] ], "rank": 100.0, "min": { "date": "2014-10-01", "days": 73.2 }, "decade_delta": { "years": 10, "from": "2016-08-01", "from_days": 87.7, "delta": 30.2 }, "binding": "none", "binding_cover": null, "status": "ruhig" }, { "key": "wheat", "label": "Weizen, weltweit", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "what": "Wie viele Tage die Welternte-Reste den Weltverbrauch tragen. Das Ma\u00df hinter dem Begriff \u201eStocks-to-Use\u201c, nur in Tagen statt in Prozent.", "substitution": { "grade": "A", "lead_time_days": 300, "possible": "nur saisonal", "note": "Getreide ist zwischen den Arten begrenzt substituierbar (Futter ja, Brot kaum) \u2014 zwischen den JAHREN aber gar nicht: Die n\u00e4chste Ernte kommt, wann sie kommt. Das ist die h\u00e4rteste Nichtersetzbarkeit im ganzen Monitor und der Grund, warum Exportverbote in dieser Ware so schnell eskalieren." }, "stock_monitor": "wheat_stocks", "flow_monitor": "wheat_use", "stock": 276038.0, "stock_unit": "kt", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "stock_start": "1960-06-01", "days": 122.3, "daily_use": 2256.8, "daily_use_unit": "kt/Tag", "ex_china": { "days": 84.8, "norm_days": 73.1, "cover": 1.16, "stock_share_china": 0.43, "track": [ [ "1960-06-01", 35.1 ], [ "1961-06-01", 83.1 ], [ "1962-06-01", 88.4 ], [ "1963-06-01", 69.4 ], [ "1964-06-01", 23.0 ], [ "1965-06-01", 25.6 ], [ "1966-06-01", 14.1 ], [ "1967-06-01", 20.6 ], [ "1968-06-01", 32.3 ], [ "1969-06-01", 30.3 ], [ "1970-06-01", 28.4 ], [ "1971-06-01", 34.0 ], [ "1972-06-01", 42.2 ], [ "1973-06-01", 45.9 ], [ "1974-06-01", 56.4 ], [ "1975-06-01", 46.2 ], [ "1976-06-01", 24.4 ], [ "1977-06-01", 26.1 ], [ "1978-06-01", 41.8 ], [ "1979-06-01", 33.8 ], [ "1980-06-01", 31.8 ], [ "1981-06-01", 51.4 ], [ "1982-06-01", 58.7 ], [ "1983-06-01", 74.7 ], [ "1984-06-01", 59.9 ], [ "1985-06-01", 80.1 ], [ "1986-06-01", 107.7 ], [ "1987-06-01", 69.3 ], [ "1988-06-01", 64.0 ], [ "1989-06-01", 86.5 ], [ "1990-06-01", 64.8 ], [ "1991-06-01", 59.2 ], [ "1992-06-01", 80.4 ], [ "1993-06-01", 75.6 ], [ "1994-06-01", 58.4 ], [ "1995-06-01", 56.0 ], [ "1996-06-01", 49.0 ], [ "1997-06-01", 57.9 ], [ "1998-06-01", 64.3 ], [ "1999-06-01", 58.1 ], [ "2000-06-01", 64.7 ], [ "2001-06-01", 61.5 ], [ "2002-06-01", 56.8 ], [ "2003-06-01", 53.6 ], [ "2004-06-01", 69.4 ], [ "2005-06-01", 93.2 ], [ "2006-06-01", 71.1 ], [ "2007-06-01", 73.1 ], [ "2008-06-01", 51.9 ], [ "2009-06-01", 56.5 ], [ "2010-06-01", 49.2 ], [ "2011-06-01", 66.3 ], [ "2012-06-01", 79.4 ], [ "2013-06-01", 89.0 ], [ "2014-06-01", 83.0 ], [ "2015-06-01", 34.4 ], [ "2016-06-01", 40.4 ], [ "2017-06-01", 36.5 ], [ "2018-06-01", 36.5 ], [ "2019-06-01", 107.9 ], [ "2020-06-01", 95.3 ], [ "2021-06-01", 45.9 ], [ "2022-06-01", 43.1 ], [ "2023-06-01", 52.5 ], [ "2024-06-01", 62.0 ], [ "2025-06-01", 155.5 ], [ "2026-06-01", 84.8 ] ], "rank": 88.1, "note": "Dieselbe Rechnung ohne die chinesischen Best\u00e4nde. China h\u00e4lt sie als nationale Reserve und exportiert sie nicht \u2014 f\u00fcr den Weltmarkt sind sie nicht verf\u00fcgbar." }, "norm_days": 73.1, "norm_kind": "historical", "norm_label": "Reichweite im Krisenjahr 2007/08", "norm_source": "Preisspitze 2007/08 mit Exportverboten in \u00fcber 30 L\u00e4ndern; die Bestandsreichweite dieses Jahres dient hier als benannter Krisenwert statt einer gesetzten Schwelle", "cover": 1.67, "track": [ [ "1960-06-01", 35.1 ], [ "1961-06-01", 83.1 ], [ "1962-06-01", 88.4 ], [ "1963-06-01", 69.4 ], [ "1964-06-01", 23.0 ], [ "1965-06-01", 25.6 ], [ "1966-06-01", 14.1 ], [ "1967-06-01", 20.6 ], [ "1968-06-01", 32.3 ], [ "1969-06-01", 30.3 ], [ "1970-06-01", 28.4 ], [ "1971-06-01", 34.0 ], [ "1972-06-01", 42.2 ], [ "1973-06-01", 45.9 ], [ "1974-06-01", 56.4 ], [ "1975-06-01", 46.2 ], [ "1976-06-01", 24.4 ], [ "1977-06-01", 26.1 ], [ "1978-06-01", 41.8 ], [ "1979-06-01", 33.8 ], [ "1980-06-01", 31.8 ], [ "1981-06-01", 51.4 ], [ "1982-06-01", 58.7 ], [ "1983-06-01", 74.7 ], [ "1984-06-01", 59.9 ], [ "1985-06-01", 80.1 ], [ "1986-06-01", 107.7 ], [ "1987-06-01", 69.3 ], [ "1988-06-01", 64.0 ], [ "1989-06-01", 86.5 ], [ "1990-06-01", 64.8 ], [ "1991-06-01", 59.2 ], [ "1992-06-01", 80.4 ], [ "1993-06-01", 75.6 ], [ "1994-06-01", 58.4 ], [ "1995-06-01", 56.0 ], [ "1996-06-01", 49.0 ], [ "1997-06-01", 57.9 ], [ "1998-06-01", 64.3 ], [ "1999-06-01", 58.1 ], [ "2000-06-01", 64.7 ], [ "2001-06-01", 61.5 ], [ "2002-06-01", 56.8 ], [ "2003-06-01", 53.6 ], [ "2004-06-01", 69.4 ], [ "2005-06-01", 93.2 ], [ "2006-06-01", 71.1 ], [ "2007-06-01", 73.1 ], [ "2008-06-01", 51.9 ], [ "2009-06-01", 56.5 ], [ "2010-06-01", 49.2 ], [ "2011-06-01", 66.3 ], [ "2012-06-01", 79.4 ], [ "2013-06-01", 89.0 ], [ "2014-06-01", 83.0 ], [ "2015-06-01", 34.4 ], [ "2016-06-01", 40.4 ], [ "2017-06-01", 36.5 ], [ "2018-06-01", 36.5 ], [ "2019-06-01", 107.9 ], [ "2020-06-01", 95.3 ], [ "2021-06-01", 45.9 ], [ "2022-06-01", 43.1 ], [ "2023-06-01", 52.5 ], [ "2024-06-01", 62.0 ], [ "2025-06-01", 155.5 ], [ "2026-06-01", 122.3 ] ], "rank": 98.5, "min": { "date": "1966-06-01", "days": 14.1 }, "decade_delta": { "years": 10, "from": "2016-06-01", "from_days": 40.4, "delta": 81.9 }, "binding": "ohne China", "binding_cover": 1.16, "status": "ruhig" }, { "key": "corn", "label": "Mais, weltweit", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "what": "Reichweite der mengenm\u00e4\u00dfig gr\u00f6\u00dften Getreideart.", "substitution": { "grade": "B", "lead_time_days": 300, "possible": "nur saisonal", "note": "In der Futterverwendung gegen Weizen und Soja tauschbar, in der Ethanolverwendung politisch steuerbar \u2014 die US-Beimischungsquote ist der gr\u00f6\u00dfte kurzfristig verf\u00fcgbare Hebel auf dem Weltmaismarkt \u00fcberhaupt." }, "stock_monitor": "corn_stocks", "flow_monitor": "corn_use", "stock": 280440.0, "stock_unit": "kt", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "stock_start": "1960-09-01", "days": 78.0, "daily_use": 3597.6, "daily_use_unit": "kt/Tag", "ex_china": { "days": 42.6, "norm_days": 57.6, "cover": 0.74, "stock_share_china": 0.59, "track": [ [ "1960-09-01", 89.0 ], [ "1961-09-01", 90.8 ], [ "1962-09-01", 88.7 ], [ "1963-09-01", 95.4 ], [ "1964-09-01", 96.1 ], [ "1965-09-01", 92.2 ], [ "1966-09-01", 86.7 ], [ "1967-09-01", 90.6 ], [ "1968-09-01", 73.0 ], [ "1969-09-01", 28.5 ], [ "1970-09-01", 24.3 ], [ "1971-09-01", 20.7 ], [ "1972-09-01", 23.2 ], [ "1973-09-01", 21.8 ], [ "1974-09-01", 12.8 ], [ "1975-09-01", 77.1 ], [ "1976-09-01", 74.0 ], [ "1977-09-01", 51.5 ], [ "1978-09-01", 27.6 ], [ "1979-09-01", 22.1 ], [ "1980-09-01", 26.8 ], [ "1981-09-01", 11.1 ], [ "1982-09-01", 24.8 ], [ "1983-09-01", 12.5 ], [ "1984-09-01", 16.0 ], [ "1985-09-01", 20.3 ], [ "1986-09-01", 14.0 ], [ "1987-09-01", 11.2 ], [ "1988-09-01", 6.9 ], [ "1989-09-01", 14.6 ], [ "1990-09-01", 27.5 ], [ "1991-09-01", 32.4 ], [ "1992-09-01", 20.7 ], [ "1993-09-01", 7.3 ], [ "1994-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1995-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1996-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1997-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1998-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1999-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "2000-09-01", 22.1 ], [ "2001-09-01", 38.1 ], [ "2002-09-01", 43.9 ], [ "2003-09-01", 84.6 ], [ "2004-09-01", 56.0 ], [ "2005-09-01", 63.7 ], [ "2006-09-01", 30.2 ], [ "2007-09-01", 57.6 ], [ "2008-09-01", 30.5 ], [ "2009-09-01", 25.8 ], [ "2010-09-01", 10.7 ], [ "2011-09-01", 6.8 ], [ "2012-09-01", 11.9 ], [ "2013-09-01", 25.8 ], [ "2014-09-01", 95.9 ], [ "2015-09-01", 65.9 ], [ "2016-09-01", 71.4 ], [ "2017-09-01", 57.8 ], [ "2018-09-01", 57.9 ], [ "2019-09-01", 35.7 ], [ "2020-09-01", 36.1 ], [ "2021-09-01", 22.2 ], [ "2022-09-01", 24.6 ], [ "2023-09-01", 24.7 ], [ "2024-09-01", 45.4 ], [ "2025-09-01", 52.3 ], [ "2026-09-01", 42.6 ] ], "rank": 64.2, "note": "Dieselbe Rechnung ohne die chinesischen Best\u00e4nde. China h\u00e4lt sie als nationale Reserve und exportiert sie nicht \u2014 f\u00fcr den Weltmarkt sind sie nicht verf\u00fcgbar." }, "norm_days": 57.6, "norm_kind": "historical", "norm_label": "Reichweite im Krisenjahr 2007/08", "norm_source": "Preisspitze 2007/08 mit Exportverboten in \u00fcber 30 L\u00e4ndern; die Bestandsreichweite dieses Jahres dient hier als benannter Krisenwert statt einer gesetzten Schwelle", "cover": 1.36, "track": [ [ "1960-09-01", 89.0 ], [ "1961-09-01", 90.8 ], [ "1962-09-01", 88.7 ], [ "1963-09-01", 95.4 ], [ "1964-09-01", 96.1 ], [ "1965-09-01", 92.2 ], [ "1966-09-01", 86.7 ], [ "1967-09-01", 90.6 ], [ "1968-09-01", 73.0 ], [ "1969-09-01", 28.5 ], [ "1970-09-01", 24.3 ], [ "1971-09-01", 20.7 ], [ "1972-09-01", 23.2 ], [ "1973-09-01", 21.8 ], [ "1974-09-01", 12.8 ], [ "1975-09-01", 77.1 ], [ "1976-09-01", 74.0 ], [ "1977-09-01", 51.5 ], [ "1978-09-01", 27.6 ], [ "1979-09-01", 22.1 ], [ "1980-09-01", 26.8 ], [ "1981-09-01", 11.1 ], [ "1982-09-01", 24.8 ], [ "1983-09-01", 12.5 ], [ "1984-09-01", 16.0 ], [ "1985-09-01", 20.3 ], [ "1986-09-01", 14.0 ], [ "1987-09-01", 11.2 ], [ "1988-09-01", 6.9 ], [ "1989-09-01", 14.6 ], [ "1990-09-01", 27.5 ], [ "1991-09-01", 32.4 ], [ "1992-09-01", 20.7 ], [ "1993-09-01", 7.3 ], [ "1994-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1995-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1996-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1997-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1998-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "1999-09-01", 0.0 ], [ "2000-09-01", 22.1 ], [ "2001-09-01", 38.1 ], [ "2002-09-01", 43.9 ], [ "2003-09-01", 84.6 ], [ "2004-09-01", 56.0 ], [ "2005-09-01", 63.7 ], [ "2006-09-01", 30.2 ], [ "2007-09-01", 57.6 ], [ "2008-09-01", 30.5 ], [ "2009-09-01", 25.8 ], [ "2010-09-01", 10.7 ], [ "2011-09-01", 6.8 ], [ "2012-09-01", 11.9 ], [ "2013-09-01", 25.8 ], [ "2014-09-01", 95.9 ], [ "2015-09-01", 65.9 ], [ "2016-09-01", 71.4 ], [ "2017-09-01", 57.8 ], [ "2018-09-01", 57.9 ], [ "2019-09-01", 35.7 ], [ "2020-09-01", 36.1 ], [ "2021-09-01", 22.2 ], [ "2022-09-01", 24.6 ], [ "2023-09-01", 24.7 ], [ "2024-09-01", 45.4 ], [ "2025-09-01", 52.3 ], [ "2026-09-01", 78.0 ] ], "rank": 85.1, "min": { "date": "1994-09-01", "days": 0.0 }, "decade_delta": { "years": 10, "from": "2016-09-01", "from_days": 71.4, "delta": 6.6 }, "binding": "ohne China", "binding_cover": 0.74, "status": "aktiv" }, { "key": "rice", "label": "Reis, weltweit", "group": "nahrung", "group_label": "Nahrung", "what": "Reichweite des Grundnahrungsmittels mit dem d\u00fcnnsten Welthandel.", "substitution": { "grade": "B", "lead_time_days": 300, "possible": "kaum", "note": "Kulturell und k\u00fcchentechnisch kaum ersetzbar; der Welthandelsanteil von rund einem Zehntel bedeutet, dass wenige Exportverbote den handelbaren Markt halbieren k\u00f6nnen \u2014 2008 geschehen, 2023 durch Indien wiederholt." }, "stock_monitor": "rice_stocks", "flow_monitor": "rice_use", "stock": 198498.0, "stock_unit": "kt", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "stock_start": "1960-08-01", "days": 135.1, "daily_use": 1469.0, "daily_use_unit": "kt/Tag", "ex_china": { "days": 86.3, "norm_days": 49.9, "cover": 1.73, "stock_share_china": 0.54, "track": [ [ "1960-08-01", 0.0 ], [ "1961-08-01", 18.6 ], [ "1962-08-01", 18.4 ], [ "1963-08-01", 18.2 ], [ "1964-08-01", 14.6 ], [ "1965-08-01", 17.4 ], [ "1966-08-01", 15.0 ], [ "1967-08-01", 17.7 ], [ "1968-08-01", 52.0 ], [ "1969-08-01", 44.2 ], [ "1970-08-01", 52.8 ], [ "1971-08-01", 47.4 ], [ "1972-08-01", 36.7 ], [ "1973-08-01", 42.3 ], [ "1974-08-01", 10.2 ], [ "1975-08-01", 54.4 ], [ "1976-08-01", 42.0 ], [ "1977-08-01", 59.0 ], [ "1978-08-01", 79.8 ], [ "1979-08-01", 55.7 ], [ "1980-08-01", 44.5 ], [ "1981-08-01", 33.7 ], [ "1982-08-01", 26.3 ], [ "1983-08-01", 41.0 ], [ "1984-08-01", 98.8 ], [ "1985-08-01", 167.4 ], [ "1986-08-01", 86.9 ], [ "1987-08-01", 38.2 ], [ "1988-08-01", 60.3 ], [ "1989-08-01", 99.0 ], [ "1990-08-01", 46.5 ], [ "1991-08-01", 135.7 ], [ "1992-08-01", 126.2 ], [ "1993-08-01", 53.4 ], [ "1994-08-01", 95.1 ], [ "1995-08-01", 84.5 ], [ "1996-08-01", 36.1 ], [ "1997-08-01", 56.8 ], [ "1998-08-01", 18.6 ], [ "1999-08-01", 307.5 ], [ "2000-08-01", 269.5 ], [ "2001-08-01", 176.7 ], [ "2002-08-01", 142.0 ], [ "2003-08-01", 120.8 ], [ "2004-08-01", 145.5 ], [ "2005-08-01", 121.8 ], [ "2006-08-01", 105.7 ], [ "2007-08-01", 49.9 ], [ "2008-08-01", 113.3 ], [ "2009-08-01", 111.8 ], [ "2010-08-01", 112.3 ], [ "2011-08-01", 81.5 ], [ "2012-08-01", 77.1 ], [ "2013-08-01", 90.2 ], [ "2014-08-01", 111.0 ], [ "2015-08-01", 204.0 ], [ "2016-08-01", 100.8 ], [ "2017-08-01", 105.3 ], [ "2018-08-01", 108.9 ], [ "2019-08-01", 121.9 ], [ "2020-08-01", 129.0 ], [ "2021-08-01", 126.5 ], [ "2022-08-01", 116.8 ], [ "2023-08-01", 99.2 ], [ "2024-08-01", 81.1 ], [ "2025-08-01", 112.7 ], [ "2026-08-01", 86.3 ] ], "rank": 55.2, "note": "Dieselbe Rechnung ohne die chinesischen Best\u00e4nde. China h\u00e4lt sie als nationale Reserve und exportiert sie nicht \u2014 f\u00fcr den Weltmarkt sind sie nicht verf\u00fcgbar." }, "norm_days": 49.9, "norm_kind": "historical", "norm_label": "Reichweite im Krisenjahr 2007/08", "norm_source": "Preisspitze 2007/08 mit Exportverboten in \u00fcber 30 L\u00e4ndern; die Bestandsreichweite dieses Jahres dient hier als benannter Krisenwert statt einer gesetzten Schwelle", "cover": 2.7, "track": [ [ "1960-08-01", 0.0 ], [ "1961-08-01", 18.6 ], [ "1962-08-01", 18.4 ], [ "1963-08-01", 18.2 ], [ "1964-08-01", 14.6 ], [ "1965-08-01", 17.4 ], [ "1966-08-01", 15.0 ], [ "1967-08-01", 17.7 ], [ "1968-08-01", 52.0 ], [ "1969-08-01", 44.2 ], [ "1970-08-01", 52.8 ], [ "1971-08-01", 47.4 ], [ "1972-08-01", 36.7 ], [ "1973-08-01", 42.3 ], [ "1974-08-01", 10.2 ], [ "1975-08-01", 54.4 ], [ "1976-08-01", 42.0 ], [ "1977-08-01", 59.0 ], [ "1978-08-01", 79.8 ], [ "1979-08-01", 55.7 ], [ "1980-08-01", 44.5 ], [ "1981-08-01", 33.7 ], [ "1982-08-01", 26.3 ], [ "1983-08-01", 41.0 ], [ "1984-08-01", 98.8 ], [ "1985-08-01", 167.4 ], [ "1986-08-01", 86.9 ], [ "1987-08-01", 38.2 ], [ "1988-08-01", 60.3 ], [ "1989-08-01", 99.0 ], [ "1990-08-01", 46.5 ], [ "1991-08-01", 135.7 ], [ "1992-08-01", 126.2 ], [ "1993-08-01", 53.4 ], [ "1994-08-01", 95.1 ], [ "1995-08-01", 84.5 ], [ "1996-08-01", 36.1 ], [ "1997-08-01", 56.8 ], [ "1998-08-01", 18.6 ], [ "1999-08-01", 307.5 ], [ "2000-08-01", 269.5 ], [ "2001-08-01", 176.7 ], [ "2002-08-01", 142.0 ], [ "2003-08-01", 120.8 ], [ "2004-08-01", 145.5 ], [ "2005-08-01", 121.8 ], [ "2006-08-01", 105.7 ], [ "2007-08-01", 49.9 ], [ "2008-08-01", 113.3 ], [ "2009-08-01", 111.8 ], [ "2010-08-01", 112.3 ], [ "2011-08-01", 81.5 ], [ "2012-08-01", 77.1 ], [ "2013-08-01", 90.2 ], [ "2014-08-01", 111.0 ], [ "2015-08-01", 204.0 ], [ "2016-08-01", 100.8 ], [ "2017-08-01", 105.3 ], [ "2018-08-01", 108.9 ], [ "2019-08-01", 121.9 ], [ "2020-08-01", 129.0 ], [ "2021-08-01", 126.5 ], [ "2022-08-01", 116.8 ], [ "2023-08-01", 99.2 ], [ "2024-08-01", 81.1 ], [ "2025-08-01", 169.6 ], [ "2026-08-01", 135.1 ] ], "rank": 86.6, "min": { "date": "1960-08-01", "days": 0.0 }, "decade_delta": { "years": 10, "from": "2016-08-01", "from_days": 100.8, "delta": 34.4 }, "binding": "ohne China", "binding_cover": 1.73, "status": "ruhig" } ], "gas_reference": { "key": "gas_de", "label": "Erdgas, Deutschland", "group": "energie", "group_label": "Energietr\u00e4ger", "cover": 0.91, "norm_label": "Deckung gegen die k\u00e4lteste gemessene Winterentnahme (2017/18)", "stock": 148.7, "stock_unit": "TWh", "as_of": "2026-09-14", "measured": false, "status": "aktiv", "where": "Ebene W \u2014 Winterbereitschaft", "what": "Wird in Ebene W gerechnet und hier nur nachgewiesen, damit die Reserve\u00fcbersicht keine L\u00fccke hat, wo die wichtigste Reserve des Landes steht.", "substitution": { "grade": "B", "lead_time_days": 21, "possible": "teilweise", "note": "LNG ersetzt Pipelinegas mengenm\u00e4\u00dfig, aber nur im Rahmen freier Terminalkapazit\u00e4t und zu Weltmarktpreisen \u2014 und die knappste Ressource ist derzeit nicht das Gas, sondern der Verfl\u00fcssigungsschiffsraum." } }, "ladder": [ { "key": "gas_early", "domain": "Gas", "stage": "Fr\u00fchwarnstufe", "active_since": "2025-07-01", "powers": "keine", "powers_note": "Die Bundesnetzagentur darf in dieser Stufe NICHTS anordnen. Es gilt Marktmechanismus plus Beobachtung; Eingriffsrechte (Zuteilung, Abschaltreihenfolge) entstehen erst in der Notfallstufe.", "source": "Notfallplan Gas (BMWK), Verordnung (EU) 2017/1938", "episode": { "label": "Eskalation 2022", "from": "2022-03-30", "to": "2022-06-23", "days": 85, "what": "Fr\u00fchwarnstufe bis Alarmstufe \u2014 die Stufe, in der angeordnet werden darf, kam 85 Tage nach der ersten Warnung." } }, { "key": "gas_alarm", "domain": "Gas", "stage": "Alarmstufe", "active_since": null, "powers": "marktbasiert", "powers_note": "Marktbasierte Instrumente (Ausschreibungen, Preisanpassungsrecht nach \u00a7 24 EnSiG) \u2014 noch keine hoheitliche Zuteilung.", "source": "Notfallplan Gas, Stufe 2", "episode": null }, { "key": "gas_emergency", "domain": "Gas", "stage": "Notfallstufe", "active_since": null, "powers": "hoheitlich", "powers_note": "Die Bundesnetzagentur wird Bundeslastverteiler und ordnet die Zuteilung an. Gesch\u00fctzte Kunden (Haushalte, Krankenh\u00e4user) gehen vor der Industrie \u2014 was bedeutet, dass der Eingriff die Industrie trifft, nicht den Verbrauch, der die Speicher leert.", "source": "Notfallplan Gas, Stufe 3; \u00a7 16 EnWG", "episode": null }, { "key": "oil_release", "domain": "\u00d6l", "stage": "Freigabe des Pflichtvorrats", "active_since": null, "powers": "hoheitlich", "powers_note": "Das BMWK kann den Erd\u00f6lbevorratungsverband per Freigabeanordnung zur Auslagerung verpflichten; international koordiniert \u00fcber die IEA. Das ist der schnellste harte Hebel im ganzen Monitor \u2014 Tage, nicht Monate.", "source": "Erd\u00f6lBevG \u00a7 13; IEA-\u00dcbereinkommen \u00fcber ein internationales Energieprogramm", "episode": { "label": "IEA-Freigabe 2022", "from": "2022-03-01", "to": "2022-04-01", "days": 31, "what": "Kriegsbeginn bis zweite, gro\u00dfe koordinierte Freigabe (120 Mio. Barrel) \u2014 die erste lief bereits nach 7 Tagen." } }, { "key": "food_export", "domain": "Nahrung", "stage": "Exportbeschr\u00e4nkung durch Dritte", "active_since": null, "powers": "keine", "powers_note": "Hier ist die Reaktionsf\u00e4higkeit NEGATIV: Nicht die eigene Handlungsmacht entscheidet, sondern die Entscheidung von Exportstaaten. Ein Exportverbot wirkt sofort und ist von au\u00dfen nicht r\u00fcckholbar \u2014 deshalb steht diese Zeile in der Leiter.", "source": "IFPRI Food Export Restrictions Tracker; WTO-Notifikationen", "episode": { "label": "Indiens Reisexportverbot", "from": "2023-07-20", "to": "2024-09-28", "days": 436, "what": "Vom Verbot bis zur Aufhebung \u2014 \u00fcber ein Jahr, in dem der handelbare Reismarkt um rund ein F\u00fcnftel kleiner war." } } ], "unobserved": [ { "key": "transformers", "label": "Leistungstransformatoren und Netzersatzteile", "why": "Die h\u00e4rteste Nichtersetzbarkeit im Stromnetz: Ein Gro\u00dftransformator hat inzwischen drei bis vier Jahre Lieferzeit, wiegt mehrere hundert Tonnen und ist nicht typgleich austauschbar. Es gibt keine ver\u00f6ffentlichte Bestandsstatistik \u2014 weder von den \u00dcbertragungsnetzbetreibern noch von der Bundesnetzagentur. Die einzige \u00f6ffentliche Gr\u00f6\u00dfe ist die Lieferzeit selbst, und die ist eine Branchenangabe, keine Messreihe." }, { "key": "pharma", "label": "Arzneimittelvorr\u00e4te", "why": "Das BfArM ver\u00f6ffentlicht eine Liste der gemeldeten LIEFERENGP\u00c4SSE, also eine Ereignisliste \u2014 nicht die Best\u00e4nde. Seit 2023 gilt f\u00fcr versorgungskritische Arzneimittel eine Bevorratungspflicht von drei Monaten (\u00a7 52b AMG), ihre Erf\u00fcllung wird aber nicht als Zahl publiziert. Was messbar w\u00e4re, ist die Zahl offener Engpassmeldungen; das ist ein Symptom, kein Vorrat." }, { "key": "semiconductors", "label": "Halbleiter- und Elektronikbest\u00e4nde", "why": "Lagerreichweiten sind Betriebsgeheimnis. Der \u00f6ffentliche Ersatz w\u00e4re das Lager-Umsatz-Verh\u00e4ltnis des verarbeitenden Gewerbes \u2014 das misst aber Kapitalbindung, nicht Versorgungssicherheit, und wird deshalb hier nicht als Stellvertreter gef\u00fchrt." }, { "key": "civil_food_reserve", "label": "Zivile Notfallreserve Deutschland", "why": "Die Bundesreserve Getreide und die Zivile Notfallreserve sind als Gr\u00f6\u00dfenordnung bekannt (rund 150.000 t, ausgelegt auf etwa einen Tag Brotversorgung), werden aber nicht als fortlaufende Reihe ver\u00f6ffentlicht. Sie steht deshalb als Konstante in dieser Ebene und nicht als Monitor." }, { "key": "strike_intensity", "label": "Streik- und Arbeitskampfintensit\u00e4t", "why": "Geh\u00f6rte in die Turchin-S\u00e4ule, nicht hierher \u2014 sie wird hier nur genannt, weil sie beim Aufbau dieser Ebene gepr\u00fcft wurde: Die ILOSTAT-Reihe der Ausfalltage ist \u00fcber keinen stabilen keylosen Endpunkt mehr erreichbar (Bulk-Download 404, Plumber-Schnittstelle liefert leer), und die deutschen WSI-Zahlen erscheinen als Jahres-PDF. Deshalb bleibt die Eskalationsseite des sozialen Konflikts im Monitor unbeobachtet." } ], "n_reserves": 6, "n_hot": 3, "n_below_norm": 3, "below_norm": [ "oil_de", "oil_eu", "corn" ], "shortest": { "key": "corn", "label": "Mais, weltweit", "days": 42.6, "basis": "ohne China" }, "n_unobserved": 5, "failures": [], "method": "Durchhaltetage = Bestand \u00f7 mittlerer Tagesverbrauch der letzten zw\u00f6lf Monate. Das Jahresfenster ist nicht beliebig: Die EU-Bevorratungsrichtlinie bezieht ihre Pflichtmenge ausdr\u00fccklich auf den Jahresdurchschnitt, und der deutsche \u00d6lverbrauch schwankt zwischen Winter und Sommer um rund ein F\u00fcnftel \u2014 gegen einen Einzelmonat gerechnet erg\u00e4be derselbe Vorrat je nach Jahreszeit verschiedene Reichweiten. Beim \u00d6l gilt die h\u00f6here der beiden Pflichtmengen (90 Tage Nettoeinfuhren oder 61 Tage Verbrauch); welche bindet, steht an der Kachel. Beim Getreide gibt es keine Pflichtmenge, deshalb ist der Ma\u00dfstab die gemessene Reichweite des Krisenjahres 2007/08 \u2014 ein benannter historischer Wert statt einer gesetzten Schwelle. Der Reichweitenverlauf rechnet jeden historischen Bestand gegen den DAMALS nachlaufenden Verbrauch, nicht gegen den heutigen; sonst w\u00e4re er nur eine umskalierte Bestandskurve. Die Ersetzbarkeit ist deklariert, die Reaktionsleiter ein Rechtszustand mit datierten Episoden." }, "history": { "available": true, "points": [ { "year": 1948, "date": "1948-12-31", "pressure": 28.9, "pressure_realtime": 64.7, "pressure_no_trend": null, "pillars": { "turchin": 22.6, "akkumulation": 23.2, "fiat": 27.1, "planetar": 42.5 }, "n_series": 13, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1949, "date": "1949-12-31", "pressure": 40.1, "pressure_realtime": 72.5, "pressure_no_trend": null, "pillars": { "turchin": 32.8, "akkumulation": 48.2, "fiat": 36.8, "planetar": 42.5 }, "n_series": 13, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1950, "date": "1950-12-31", "pressure": 32.9, "pressure_realtime": 59.2, "pressure_no_trend": null, "pillars": { "turchin": 28.0, "akkumulation": 32.6, "fiat": 40.3, "planetar": 30.8 }, "n_series": 13, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1951, "date": "1951-12-31", "pressure": 31.4, "pressure_realtime": 58.5, "pressure_no_trend": null, "pillars": { "turchin": 22.1, "akkumulation": 32.3, "fiat": 22.4, "planetar": 48.6 }, "n_series": 13, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1952, "date": "1952-12-31", "pressure": 34.1, "pressure_realtime": 60.9, "pressure_no_trend": 35.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 19.1, "akkumulation": 24.2, "fiat": 37.6, "planetar": 55.5 }, "n_series": 15, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1953, "date": "1953-12-31", "pressure": 37.7, "pressure_realtime": 62.8, "pressure_no_trend": 40.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 17.6, "akkumulation": 32.7, "fiat": 37.4, "planetar": 63.0 }, "n_series": 15, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1954, "date": "1954-12-31", "pressure": 28.8, "pressure_realtime": 56.7, "pressure_no_trend": 29.1, "pillars": { "turchin": 17.2, "akkumulation": 31.7, "fiat": 29.2, "planetar": 37.0 }, "n_series": 15, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1955, "date": "1955-12-31", "pressure": 27.6, "pressure_realtime": 48.0, "pressure_no_trend": 28.9, "pillars": { "turchin": 17.9, "akkumulation": 24.0, "fiat": 33.1, "planetar": 35.6 }, "n_series": 17, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1956, "date": "1956-12-31", "pressure": 26.0, "pressure_realtime": 47.8, "pressure_no_trend": 28.3, "pillars": { "turchin": 10.6, "akkumulation": 28.9, "fiat": 37.8, "planetar": 26.7 }, "n_series": 17, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1957, "date": "1957-12-31", "pressure": 38.6, "pressure_realtime": 63.8, "pressure_no_trend": 41.4, "pillars": { "turchin": 20.7, "akkumulation": 35.3, "fiat": 38.9, "planetar": 59.6 }, "n_series": 17, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1958, "date": "1958-12-31", "pressure": 32.6, "pressure_realtime": 60.2, "pressure_no_trend": 43.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 20.0, "akkumulation": 35.3, "fiat": 43.7, "planetar": 31.3 }, "n_series": 18, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1959, "date": "1959-12-31", "pressure": 30.3, "pressure_realtime": 57.2, "pressure_no_trend": 38.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 22.1, "akkumulation": 34.1, "fiat": 35.3, "planetar": 29.8 }, "n_series": 18, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1960, "date": "1960-12-31", "pressure": 31.2, "pressure_realtime": 57.3, "pressure_no_trend": 38.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 20.7, "akkumulation": 41.3, "fiat": 35.2, "planetar": 27.8 }, "n_series": 18, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1961, "date": "1961-12-31", "pressure": 29.7, "pressure_realtime": 57.0, "pressure_no_trend": 36.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 19.2, "akkumulation": 34.7, "fiat": 31.9, "planetar": 33.0 }, "n_series": 18, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1962, "date": "1962-12-31", "pressure": 30.5, "pressure_realtime": 59.7, "pressure_no_trend": 36.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 23.4, "akkumulation": 33.7, "fiat": 33.5, "planetar": 31.6 }, "n_series": 18, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1963, "date": "1963-12-31", "pressure": 29.5, "pressure_realtime": 57.4, "pressure_no_trend": 34.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 24.5, "akkumulation": 30.1, "fiat": 30.2, "planetar": 33.1 }, "n_series": 18, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1964, "date": "1964-12-31", "pressure": 24.3, "pressure_realtime": 48.3, "pressure_no_trend": 25.1, "pillars": { "turchin": 27.2, "akkumulation": 31.1, "fiat": 22.2, "planetar": 16.7 }, "n_series": 20, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1965, "date": "1965-12-31", "pressure": 27.9, "pressure_realtime": 54.0, "pressure_no_trend": 30.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 28.7, "akkumulation": 30.3, "fiat": 27.0, "planetar": 25.4 }, "n_series": 20, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1966, "date": "1966-12-31", "pressure": 30.1, "pressure_realtime": 60.9, "pressure_no_trend": 34.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 31.2, "akkumulation": 25.8, "fiat": 33.1, "planetar": 30.5 }, "n_series": 20, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1967, "date": "1967-12-31", "pressure": 33.4, "pressure_realtime": 64.1, "pressure_no_trend": 36.6, "pillars": { "turchin": 33.5, "akkumulation": 29.3, "fiat": 38.0, "planetar": 32.8 }, "n_series": 23, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1968, "date": "1968-12-31", "pressure": 30.3, "pressure_realtime": 67.2, "pressure_no_trend": 34.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 34.5, "akkumulation": 28.8, "fiat": 32.3, "planetar": 25.6 }, "n_series": 25, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1969, "date": "1969-12-31", "pressure": 29.1, "pressure_realtime": 57.9, "pressure_no_trend": 35.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 30.3, "akkumulation": 32.2, "fiat": 22.5, "planetar": 31.4 }, "n_series": 25, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1970, "date": "1970-12-31", "pressure": 37.5, "pressure_realtime": 68.0, "pressure_no_trend": 44.6, "pillars": { "turchin": 34.0, "akkumulation": 47.2, "fiat": 37.1, "planetar": 31.5 }, "n_series": 25, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1971, "date": "1971-12-31", "pressure": 39.1, "pressure_realtime": 64.7, "pressure_no_trend": 44.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 36.1, "akkumulation": 41.0, "fiat": 50.8, "planetar": 28.4 }, "n_series": 26, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1972, "date": "1972-12-31", "pressure": 39.3, "pressure_realtime": 62.2, "pressure_no_trend": 41.6, "pillars": { "turchin": 32.0, "akkumulation": 33.3, "fiat": 45.6, "planetar": 46.3 }, "n_series": 27, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1973, "date": "1973-12-31", "pressure": 42.0, "pressure_realtime": 64.6, "pressure_no_trend": 46.9, "pillars": { "turchin": 34.8, "akkumulation": 34.5, "fiat": 46.9, "planetar": 51.9 }, "n_series": 27, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1974, "date": "1974-12-31", "pressure": 48.0, "pressure_realtime": 66.6, "pressure_no_trend": 52.3, "pillars": { "turchin": 37.6, "akkumulation": 47.4, "fiat": 64.8, "planetar": 42.3 }, "n_series": 27, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1975, "date": "1975-12-31", "pressure": 48.3, "pressure_realtime": 67.3, "pressure_no_trend": 53.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 44.4, "akkumulation": 48.6, "fiat": 56.2, "planetar": 44.0 }, "n_series": 27, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1976, "date": "1976-12-31", "pressure": 46.2, "pressure_realtime": 68.2, "pressure_no_trend": 47.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 42.1, "akkumulation": 44.3, "fiat": 54.3, "planetar": 44.3 }, "n_series": 27, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1977, "date": "1977-12-31", "pressure": 43.8, "pressure_realtime": 68.4, "pressure_no_trend": 50.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 40.4, "akkumulation": 36.8, "fiat": 53.1, "planetar": 45.0 }, "n_series": 28, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1978, "date": "1978-12-31", "pressure": 41.4, "pressure_realtime": 63.1, "pressure_no_trend": 47.6, "pillars": { "turchin": 41.1, "akkumulation": 32.8, "fiat": 49.3, "planetar": 42.2 }, "n_series": 29, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1979, "date": "1979-12-31", "pressure": 46.0, "pressure_realtime": 68.2, "pressure_no_trend": 55.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 40.8, "akkumulation": 40.4, "fiat": 61.0, "planetar": 41.8 }, "n_series": 30, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1980, "date": "1980-12-31", "pressure": 44.0, "pressure_realtime": 64.5, "pressure_no_trend": 55.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 36.9, "akkumulation": 47.7, "fiat": 49.1, "planetar": 42.3 }, "n_series": 31, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1981, "date": "1981-12-31", "pressure": 44.3, "pressure_realtime": 64.0, "pressure_no_trend": 56.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 39.9, "akkumulation": 44.4, "fiat": 50.4, "planetar": 42.6 }, "n_series": 31, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1982, "date": "1982-12-31", "pressure": 48.1, "pressure_realtime": 68.3, "pressure_no_trend": 59.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 42.7, "akkumulation": 56.2, "fiat": 53.6, "planetar": 40.1 }, "n_series": 31, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1983, "date": "1983-12-31", "pressure": 43.9, "pressure_realtime": 66.8, "pressure_no_trend": 57.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 44.6, "akkumulation": 42.8, "fiat": 45.2, "planetar": 42.8 }, "n_series": 32, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1984, "date": "1984-12-31", "pressure": 43.4, "pressure_realtime": 68.2, "pressure_no_trend": 53.6, "pillars": { "turchin": 46.4, "akkumulation": 33.7, "fiat": 49.5, "planetar": 43.9 }, "n_series": 32, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1985, "date": "1985-12-31", "pressure": 45.6, "pressure_realtime": 72.2, "pressure_no_trend": 55.1, "pillars": { "turchin": 47.3, "akkumulation": 40.3, "fiat": 50.6, "planetar": 44.1 }, "n_series": 32, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1986, "date": "1986-12-31", "pressure": 48.5, "pressure_realtime": 74.7, "pressure_no_trend": 59.4, "pillars": { "turchin": 47.1, "akkumulation": 49.0, "fiat": 51.9, "planetar": 46.1 }, "n_series": 32, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1987, "date": "1987-12-31", "pressure": 50.0, "pressure_realtime": 75.0, "pressure_no_trend": 60.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 49.4, "akkumulation": 42.6, "fiat": 56.3, "planetar": 51.6 }, "n_series": 32, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 1988, "date": "1988-12-31", "pressure": 49.0, "pressure_realtime": 72.1, "pressure_no_trend": 57.3, "pillars": { "turchin": 49.4, "akkumulation": 42.5, "fiat": 48.6, "planetar": 55.5 }, "n_series": 32, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1989, "date": "1989-12-31", "pressure": 49.8, "pressure_realtime": 72.9, "pressure_no_trend": 56.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 50.8, "akkumulation": 49.2, "fiat": 44.8, "planetar": 54.5 }, "n_series": 32, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1990, "date": "1990-12-31", "pressure": 53.5, "pressure_realtime": 73.1, "pressure_no_trend": 58.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 56.4, "akkumulation": 58.4, "fiat": 49.1, "planetar": 50.0 }, "n_series": 33, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 1991, "date": "1991-12-31", "pressure": 53.0, "pressure_realtime": 74.0, "pressure_no_trend": 57.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 50.1, "akkumulation": 63.0, "fiat": 49.8, "planetar": 49.1 }, "n_series": 36, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 1992, "date": "1992-12-31", "pressure": 52.2, "pressure_realtime": 70.3, "pressure_no_trend": 55.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 50.8, "akkumulation": 60.6, "fiat": 53.1, "planetar": 44.3 }, "n_series": 37, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 1993, "date": "1993-12-31", "pressure": 52.0, "pressure_realtime": 71.7, "pressure_no_trend": 56.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 51.8, "akkumulation": 58.3, "fiat": 52.0, "planetar": 46.0 }, "n_series": 37, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 1994, "date": "1994-12-31", "pressure": 49.0, "pressure_realtime": 67.8, "pressure_no_trend": 52.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 51.0, "akkumulation": 49.5, "fiat": 46.0, "planetar": 49.6 }, "n_series": 37, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1995, "date": "1995-12-31", "pressure": 50.8, "pressure_realtime": 69.3, "pressure_no_trend": 54.1, "pillars": { "turchin": 53.3, "akkumulation": 55.0, "fiat": 42.7, "planetar": 52.3 }, "n_series": 37, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 1996, "date": "1996-12-31", "pressure": 50.2, "pressure_realtime": 67.4, "pressure_no_trend": 51.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 51.3, "akkumulation": 51.8, "fiat": 44.3, "planetar": 53.6 }, "n_series": 37, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 1997, "date": "1997-12-31", "pressure": 47.8, "pressure_realtime": 65.2, "pressure_no_trend": 48.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 49.3, "akkumulation": 51.2, "fiat": 40.2, "planetar": 50.4 }, "n_series": 38, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1998, "date": "1998-12-31", "pressure": 48.5, "pressure_realtime": 64.1, "pressure_no_trend": 48.4, "pillars": { "turchin": 48.6, "akkumulation": 52.1, "fiat": 43.3, "planetar": 49.9 }, "n_series": 38, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 1999, "date": "1999-12-31", "pressure": 49.1, "pressure_realtime": 64.2, "pressure_no_trend": 46.4, "pillars": { "turchin": 47.0, "akkumulation": 55.5, "fiat": 45.9, "planetar": 47.9 }, "n_series": 38, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 2000, "date": "2000-12-31", "pressure": 48.4, "pressure_realtime": 66.0, "pressure_no_trend": 46.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 44.4, "akkumulation": 59.2, "fiat": 40.9, "planetar": 49.1 }, "n_series": 39, "level": "NORMAL" }, { "year": 2001, "date": "2001-12-31", "pressure": 53.5, "pressure_realtime": 68.2, "pressure_no_trend": 52.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 46.4, "akkumulation": 69.3, "fiat": 45.9, "planetar": 52.3 }, "n_series": 39, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2002, "date": "2002-12-31", "pressure": 55.5, "pressure_realtime": 72.6, "pressure_no_trend": 54.9, "pillars": { "turchin": 49.7, "akkumulation": 66.1, "fiat": 52.2, "planetar": 54.0 }, "n_series": 39, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2003, "date": "2003-12-31", "pressure": 56.3, "pressure_realtime": 72.4, "pressure_no_trend": 55.6, "pillars": { "turchin": 51.1, "akkumulation": 63.5, "fiat": 53.3, "planetar": 57.4 }, "n_series": 40, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2004, "date": "2004-12-31", "pressure": 55.6, "pressure_realtime": 71.2, "pressure_no_trend": 54.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 52.2, "akkumulation": 59.3, "fiat": 52.7, "planetar": 58.1 }, "n_series": 40, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2005, "date": "2005-12-31", "pressure": 53.5, "pressure_realtime": 68.2, "pressure_no_trend": 51.9, "pillars": { "turchin": 52.8, "akkumulation": 56.8, "fiat": 43.9, "planetar": 60.6 }, "n_series": 40, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2006, "date": "2006-12-31", "pressure": 55.5, "pressure_realtime": 70.6, "pressure_no_trend": 54.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 53.5, "akkumulation": 59.6, "fiat": 46.5, "planetar": 62.4 }, "n_series": 41, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2007, "date": "2007-12-31", "pressure": 58.6, "pressure_realtime": 73.5, "pressure_no_trend": 61.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 57.8, "akkumulation": 59.2, "fiat": 53.5, "planetar": 64.0 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2008, "date": "2008-12-31", "pressure": 59.4, "pressure_realtime": 72.7, "pressure_no_trend": 59.9, "pillars": { "turchin": 59.7, "akkumulation": 64.5, "fiat": 52.0, "planetar": 61.3 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2009, "date": "2009-12-31", "pressure": 63.5, "pressure_realtime": 75.8, "pressure_no_trend": 67.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 59.0, "akkumulation": 74.0, "fiat": 57.6, "planetar": 63.4 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2010, "date": "2010-12-31", "pressure": 65.1, "pressure_realtime": 76.8, "pressure_no_trend": 70.4, "pillars": { "turchin": 61.9, "akkumulation": 70.7, "fiat": 58.6, "planetar": 69.2 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2011, "date": "2011-12-31", "pressure": 66.2, "pressure_realtime": 77.7, "pressure_no_trend": 68.9, "pillars": { "turchin": 63.9, "akkumulation": 67.6, "fiat": 64.0, "planetar": 69.1 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2012, "date": "2012-12-31", "pressure": 67.2, "pressure_realtime": 78.0, "pressure_no_trend": 69.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 64.9, "akkumulation": 69.4, "fiat": 63.9, "planetar": 70.8 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2013, "date": "2013-12-31", "pressure": 68.2, "pressure_realtime": 77.3, "pressure_no_trend": 67.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 62.2, "akkumulation": 70.8, "fiat": 65.5, "planetar": 74.1 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2014, "date": "2014-12-31", "pressure": 65.7, "pressure_realtime": 72.9, "pressure_no_trend": 62.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 60.1, "akkumulation": 65.8, "fiat": 61.5, "planetar": 75.2 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2015, "date": "2015-12-31", "pressure": 64.8, "pressure_realtime": 72.0, "pressure_no_trend": 60.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 59.0, "akkumulation": 72.6, "fiat": 56.1, "planetar": 71.5 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2016, "date": "2016-12-31", "pressure": 66.4, "pressure_realtime": 72.2, "pressure_no_trend": 62.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 61.8, "akkumulation": 75.1, "fiat": 55.2, "planetar": 73.6 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2017, "date": "2017-12-31", "pressure": 66.8, "pressure_realtime": 72.5, "pressure_no_trend": 62.3, "pillars": { "turchin": 63.5, "akkumulation": 68.1, "fiat": 58.9, "planetar": 76.5 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2018, "date": "2018-12-31", "pressure": 66.0, "pressure_realtime": 71.6, "pressure_no_trend": 60.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 63.0, "akkumulation": 67.2, "fiat": 59.0, "planetar": 74.8 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2019, "date": "2019-12-31", "pressure": 69.8, "pressure_realtime": 74.8, "pressure_no_trend": 65.8, "pillars": { "turchin": 63.1, "akkumulation": 73.5, "fiat": 63.5, "planetar": 78.9 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2020, "date": "2020-12-31", "pressure": 74.0, "pressure_realtime": 77.4, "pressure_no_trend": 71.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 65.3, "akkumulation": 73.9, "fiat": 77.0, "planetar": 79.9 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "ERHOEHT" }, { "year": 2021, "date": "2021-12-31", "pressure": 76.3, "pressure_realtime": 78.7, "pressure_no_trend": 73.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 72.3, "akkumulation": 69.3, "fiat": 79.6, "planetar": 84.2 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "HOCH" }, { "year": 2022, "date": "2022-12-31", "pressure": 77.1, "pressure_realtime": 79.2, "pressure_no_trend": 76.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 73.9, "akkumulation": 71.6, "fiat": 78.3, "planetar": 84.5 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "HOCH" }, { "year": 2023, "date": "2023-12-31", "pressure": 75.4, "pressure_realtime": 77.0, "pressure_no_trend": 73.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 74.7, "akkumulation": 69.7, "fiat": 73.3, "planetar": 84.1 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "HOCH" }, { "year": 2024, "date": "2024-12-31", "pressure": 76.5, "pressure_realtime": 77.3, "pressure_no_trend": 75.0, "pillars": { "turchin": 74.7, "akkumulation": 73.3, "fiat": 72.3, "planetar": 85.7 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "HOCH" }, { "year": 2025, "date": "2025-12-31", "pressure": 77.8, "pressure_realtime": 78.1, "pressure_no_trend": 76.3, "pillars": { "turchin": 77.2, "akkumulation": 75.5, "fiat": 72.5, "planetar": 86.0 }, "n_series": 42, "level": "HOCH" }, { "year": 2026, "date": "2026-10-12", "pressure": 77.1, "pressure_realtime": 77.1, "pressure_no_trend": 77.6, "pillars": { "turchin": 77.7, "akkumulation": 72.7, "fiat": 74.3, "planetar": 83.6 }, "n_series": 40, "level": "HOCH" } ], "first_year": 1948, "last_year": 2026, "n_points": 79, "trend": { "tau": 0.813, "direction": "steigend", "change_10y": 10.7, "change_30y": 26.9, "change_since_start": 48.2, "percentile_today": 98.7, "max": { "year": 2025, "pressure": 77.8 }, "min": { "year": 1964, "pressure": 24.3 } }, "hindsight": { "today": 0.0, "worst_year": 1968, "worst_gap": -36.9 }, "trend_test": { "n_excluded": 17, "excluded": [ "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "CO\u2082-Konzentration", "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "Earth Overshoot Day", "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "Kaufkraft des Dollars (1913 = 100)", "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "Living Planet Index", "Materialfu\u00dfabdruck pro Kopf", "Medianhaus in Jahresgeh\u00e4ltern", "Netto-Auslandsverm\u00f6gensposition \u00f7 BIP", "Produktivit\u00e4ts-Lohn-Schere", "Reale Studiengeb\u00fchren", "Relativlohn (Medianlohn \u00f7 BIP pro Kopf)", "Staatsschulden \u00f7 BIP", "Verm\u00f6gensanteil des obersten Prozents", "Waldfl\u00e4che der Erde" ], "base_year": 1952, "last_year": 2026, "change_full": 43.0, "change_without": 41.8, "verdict": "Der Anstieg tr\u00e4gt auch ohne die trendenden Reihen" }, "episodes": [ { "year": 1971, "label": "Ende von Bretton Woods", "why": "Der Dollar wird zur reinen Staatsverbindlichkeit \u2014 Beginn der Reihe, die S\u00e4ule III \u00fcberhaupt erst messbar macht." }, { "year": 1979, "label": "Volcker-Schock", "why": "Zinswende als Bruch des Nachkriegs-Akkumulationsregimes." }, { "year": 2008, "label": "Finanzkrise", "why": "Der j\u00fcngste Fall, in dem zyklischer Stress und struktureller Druck zusammenfielen." }, { "year": 2020, "label": "Pandemie", "why": "Fiskalischer und monet\u00e4rer Ausnahmezustand, dessen Spuren in mehreren S\u00e4ulen bis heute stehen." } ], "coverage": { "min_series": 12, "min_pillars": 4, "stale_days": 1100, "first": 13, "last": 40 }, "method": "Derselbe Rechenkern und derselbe Katalog wie in der Kopfzeile, angewandt auf den Datenstand jedes 31. Dezember. Hauptkurve: Perzentilrang gegen die volle Reihenhistorie (\u00fcber die Zeit vergleichbar, mit Look-ahead). Zweite Kurve: Perzentilrang nur gegen die Historie bis zum Stichtag (ohne Look-ahead, daf\u00fcr am Reihenanfang unstabil). Dritte Kurve: Hauptkurve ohne die als Trendreihen markierten Indikatoren.", "caveats": [ "Keine Vintage-Daten: Verwendet wird die heutige, revidierte Fassung jeder Reihe. Was 1975 ver\u00f6ffentlicht war, weicht davon ab.", "Wechselnde Zusammensetzung: Der Index ruht je nach Stichtag auf unterschiedlich vielen Reihen. Die Abdeckung steht an jedem Punkt dabei und ist Teil der Aussage.", "Kein Backtest: Die Kurve zeigt, wie sich der Druck entwickelt hat \u2014 nicht, dass der Index Ereignisse vorhergesagt h\u00e4tte. Eine Trefferquote ist daraus nicht ableitbar." ] }, "rose_history": { "available": true, "step": 5, "reading": "rueckblick", "n_marks": 17, "marks": [ { "year": 1950, "date": "1950-12-31", "label": "1950", "is_today": false, "n_total": 44, "n_measured": 13, "n_missing": 31, "series": { "labor_share": { "pressure": 35.8, "percentile": 64.2, "raw": 111.0, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "top1_income_share": { "pressure": 50.9, "percentile": 50.9, "raw": 16.39, "as_of": "1950-12-31" }, "interest_burden": { "pressure": 5.0, "percentile": 5.0, "raw": 11.2, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "deficit_gdp": { "pressure": 29.9, "percentile": 70.1, "raw": -1.04, "as_of": "1950-01-01" }, "policy_uncertainty": { "pressure": 19.3, "percentile": 19.3, "raw": 58.8, "as_of": "1950-12-01" }, "profit_rate": { "pressure": 55.0, "percentile": 45.0, "raw": 5.52, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "profit_share": { "pressure": 80.5, "percentile": 80.5, "raw": 9.87, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "net_investment": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 13.43, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "financial_profit_share": { "pressure": 2.2, "percentile": 2.2, "raw": 7.71, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "prod_wage_gap": { "pressure": 28.0, "percentile": 28.0, "raw": 67.1, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "purchasing_power": { "pressure": 33.4, "percentile": 66.6, "raw": 39.2, "as_of": "1950-12-01" }, "current_account": { "pressure": 46.5, "percentile": 53.5, "raw": -0.78, "as_of": "1950-10-01" }, "temp_anomaly": { "pressure": 30.8, "percentile": 30.8, "raw": -0.17, "as_of": "1950-12-31" } }, "missing": { "relative_wage": "vor Reihenbeginn", "real_wage_prod": "vor Reihenbeginn", "housing_affordability": "vor Reihenbeginn", "life_expectancy": "vor Reihenbeginn", "wealth_top1": "vor Reihenbeginn", "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": "vor Reihenbeginn", "tuition_real": "vor Reihenbeginn", "elite_squeeze": "vor Reihenbeginn", "debt_gdp": "vor Reihenbeginn", "public_debt_gdp": "vor Reihenbeginn", "consumer_sentiment": "vor Reihenbeginn", "capacity_utilization": "vor Reihenbeginn", "inventory_sales": "vor Reihenbeginn", "total_debt_gdp": "erst 5 Beobachtungen", "buffett_indicator": "erst 5 Beobachtungen", "dollar_reserve_share": "vor Reihenbeginn", "foreign_holdings": "vor Reihenbeginn", "fed_monetization": "vor Reihenbeginn", "gold_real": "vor Reihenbeginn", "real_policy_rate": "vor Reihenbeginn", "niip_gdp": "vor Reihenbeginn", "dollar_index": "vor Reihenbeginn", "dollar_yuan": "vor Reihenbeginn", "co2": "vor Reihenbeginn", "living_planet": "vor Reihenbeginn", "forest_share": "vor Reihenbeginn", "fertilizer": "vor Reihenbeginn", "material_footprint": "vor Reihenbeginn", "renewable_share": "vor Reihenbeginn", "food_price": "vor Reihenbeginn", "overshoot_day": "vor Reihenbeginn" }, "pillars": { "turchin": 28.0, "akkumulation": 32.6, "fiat": 40.3, "planetar": 30.8 }, "pillar_coverage": { "turchin": [ 5, 16 ], "akkumulation": [ 5, 9 ], "fiat": [ 2, 10 ], "planetar": [ 1, 9 ] }, "pressure": 32.9, "level": "NORMAL", "n_weighted": 13, "n75": 1, "n90": 0 }, { "year": 1955, "date": "1955-12-31", "label": "1955", "is_today": false, "n_total": 44, "n_measured": 17, "n_missing": 27, "series": { "labor_share": { "pressure": 26.1, "percentile": 73.9, "raw": 111.8, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "top1_income_share": { "pressure": 36.6, "percentile": 36.6, "raw": 14.61, "as_of": "1955-12-31" }, "interest_burden": { "pressure": 4.4, "percentile": 4.4, "raw": 11.2, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "deficit_gdp": { "pressure": 25.8, "percentile": 74.2, "raw": -0.7, "as_of": "1955-01-01" }, "policy_uncertainty": { "pressure": 3.1, "percentile": 3.1, "raw": 36.4, "as_of": "1955-12-01" }, "consumer_sentiment": { "pressure": 9.6, "percentile": 90.4, "raw": 99.7, "as_of": "1955-11-01" }, "profit_rate": { "pressure": 50.8, "percentile": 49.2, "raw": 5.7, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "profit_share": { "pressure": 58.2, "percentile": 58.2, "raw": 7.12, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "net_investment": { "pressure": 4.7, "percentile": 95.3, "raw": 9.76, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "financial_profit_share": { "pressure": 7.2, "percentile": 7.2, "raw": 10.39, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "total_debt_gdp": { "pressure": 6.6, "percentile": 6.6, "raw": 129.0, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "buffett_indicator": { "pressure": 30.9, "percentile": 30.9, "raw": 55.9, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "prod_wage_gap": { "pressure": 9.4, "percentile": 9.4, "raw": 64.2, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "purchasing_power": { "pressure": 36.1, "percentile": 63.9, "raw": 36.57, "as_of": "1955-12-01" }, "real_policy_rate": { "pressure": 33.3, "percentile": 66.7, "raw": 2.11, "as_of": "1955-12-01" }, "current_account": { "pressure": 30.2, "percentile": 69.8, "raw": 0.1, "as_of": "1955-10-01" }, "temp_anomaly": { "pressure": 35.6, "percentile": 35.6, "raw": -0.14, "as_of": "1955-12-31" } }, "missing": { "relative_wage": "vor Reihenbeginn", "real_wage_prod": "vor Reihenbeginn", "housing_affordability": "vor Reihenbeginn", "life_expectancy": "vor Reihenbeginn", "wealth_top1": "vor Reihenbeginn", "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": "vor Reihenbeginn", "tuition_real": "vor Reihenbeginn", "elite_squeeze": "vor Reihenbeginn", "debt_gdp": "vor Reihenbeginn", "public_debt_gdp": "vor Reihenbeginn", "capacity_utilization": "vor Reihenbeginn", "inventory_sales": "vor Reihenbeginn", "dollar_reserve_share": "vor Reihenbeginn", "foreign_holdings": "vor Reihenbeginn", "fed_monetization": "vor Reihenbeginn", "gold_real": "vor Reihenbeginn", "niip_gdp": "vor Reihenbeginn", "dollar_index": "vor Reihenbeginn", "dollar_yuan": "vor Reihenbeginn", "co2": "vor Reihenbeginn", "living_planet": "vor Reihenbeginn", "forest_share": "vor Reihenbeginn", "fertilizer": "vor Reihenbeginn", "material_footprint": "vor Reihenbeginn", "renewable_share": "vor Reihenbeginn", "food_price": "vor Reihenbeginn", "overshoot_day": "vor Reihenbeginn" }, "pillars": { "turchin": 17.9, "akkumulation": 24.0, "fiat": 33.1, "planetar": 35.6 }, "pillar_coverage": { "turchin": [ 6, 16 ], "akkumulation": [ 7, 9 ], "fiat": [ 3, 10 ], "planetar": [ 1, 9 ] }, "pressure": 27.6, "level": "NORMAL", "n_weighted": 17, "n75": 0, "n90": 0 }, { "year": 1960, "date": "1960-12-31", "label": "1960", "is_today": false, "n_total": 44, "n_measured": 18, "n_missing": 26, "series": { "labor_share": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 117.1, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "top1_income_share": { "pressure": 17.9, "percentile": 17.9, "raw": 12.43, "as_of": "1960-12-31" }, "interest_burden": { "pressure": 38.7, "percentile": 38.7, "raw": 15.0, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "deficit_gdp": { "pressure": 13.4, "percentile": 86.6, "raw": 0.06, "as_of": "1960-01-01" }, "policy_uncertainty": { "pressure": 3.6, "percentile": 3.6, "raw": 36.8, "as_of": "1960-12-01" }, "consumer_sentiment": { "pressure": 44.8, "percentile": 55.2, "raw": 90.1, "as_of": "1960-11-01" }, "profit_rate": { "pressure": 64.2, "percentile": 35.8, "raw": 5.19, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "profit_share": { "pressure": 20.4, "percentile": 20.4, "raw": 5.54, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "net_investment": { "pressure": 70.4, "percentile": 29.6, "raw": 5.04, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "financial_profit_share": { "pressure": 39.0, "percentile": 39.0, "raw": 17.01, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "total_debt_gdp": { "pressure": 39.1, "percentile": 39.1, "raw": 137.5, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "buffett_indicator": { "pressure": 45.1, "percentile": 45.1, "raw": 67.6, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "prod_wage_gap": { "pressure": 0.3, "percentile": 0.3, "raw": 61.5, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "purchasing_power": { "pressure": 42.0, "percentile": 58.0, "raw": 32.89, "as_of": "1960-12-01" }, "real_policy_rate": { "pressure": 57.1, "percentile": 42.9, "raw": 0.62, "as_of": "1960-12-01" }, "current_account": { "pressure": 7.2, "percentile": 92.8, "raw": 0.9, "as_of": "1960-10-01" }, "co2": { "pressure": 2.8, "percentile": 2.8, "raw": 316.19, "as_of": "1960-12-01" }, "temp_anomaly": { "pressure": 52.7, "percentile": 52.7, "raw": -0.02, 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"renewable_share": { "pressure": 8.2, "percentile": 91.8, "raw": 7.1, "as_of": "2020-12-31" }, "food_price": { "pressure": 70.5, "percentile": 70.5, "raw": 108.5, "as_of": "2020-12-01" }, "overshoot_day": { "pressure": 69.1, "percentile": 30.9, "raw": 231.0, "as_of": "2020-12-31" } }, "missing": {}, "pillars": { "turchin": 65.3, "akkumulation": 73.9, "fiat": 77.0, "planetar": 79.9 }, "pillar_coverage": { "turchin": [ 16, 16 ], "akkumulation": [ 9, 9 ], "fiat": [ 10, 10 ], "planetar": [ 9, 9 ] }, "pressure": 74.0, "level": "ERHOEHT", "n_weighted": 42, "n75": 26, "n90": 15 }, { "year": 2025, "date": "2025-12-31", "label": "2025", "is_today": false, "n_total": 44, "n_measured": 44, "n_missing": 0, "series": { "relative_wage": { "pressure": 98.4, "percentile": 1.6, "raw": 13.33, "as_of": "2025-07-01" }, "labor_share": { "pressure": 99.1, "percentile": 0.9, "raw": 95.7, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "real_wage_prod": { "pressure": 0.8, "percentile": 99.2, "raw": 32.62, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "housing_affordability": { "pressure": 73.6, "percentile": 73.6, "raw": 6.25, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "life_expectancy": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 78.89, "as_of": "2024-12-31" }, "top1_income_share": { "pressure": 91.1, "percentile": 91.1, "raw": 20.73, "as_of": "2024-12-31" }, "wealth_top1": { "pressure": 99.3, "percentile": 99.3, "raw": 31.8, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "pressure": 62.2, "percentile": 62.2, "raw": 13.25, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "tuition_real": { "pressure": 81.3, "percentile": 81.3, "raw": 277.5, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "elite_squeeze": { "pressure": 55.4, "percentile": 44.6, "raw": 36.5, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "debt_gdp": { "pressure": 97.9, "percentile": 97.9, "raw": 122.6, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "public_debt_gdp": { "pressure": 99.1, "percentile": 99.1, "raw": 98.24, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "interest_burden": { "pressure": 78.3, "percentile": 78.3, "raw": 21.4, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "deficit_gdp": { "pressure": 85.6, "percentile": 14.4, "raw": -5.77, "as_of": "2025-01-01" }, "policy_uncertainty": { "pressure": 99.8, "percentile": 99.8, "raw": 387.4, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "consumer_sentiment": { "pressure": 98.2, "percentile": 1.8, "raw": 52.9, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "profit_rate": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 9.13, "as_of": "2025-01-01" }, "profit_share": { "pressure": 97.8, "percentile": 97.8, "raw": 12.03, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "capacity_utilization": { "pressure": 85.5, "percentile": 14.5, "raw": 75.6, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "net_investment": { "pressure": 89.9, "percentile": 10.1, "raw": 4.01, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "inventory_sales": { "pressure": 44.1, "percentile": 44.1, "raw": 1.36, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "financial_profit_share": { "pressure": 75.2, "percentile": 75.2, "raw": 25.17, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "total_debt_gdp": { "pressure": 94.4, "percentile": 94.4, "raw": 260.0, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "buffett_indicator": { "pressure": 99.7, "percentile": 99.7, "raw": 228.8, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "prod_wage_gap": { "pressure": 99.4, "percentile": 99.4, "raw": 108.0, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "pressure": 99.1, "percentile": 0.9, "raw": 56.52, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "foreign_holdings": { "pressure": 32.4, "percentile": 67.6, "raw": 24.07, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "fed_monetization": { "pressure": 48.8, "percentile": 48.8, "raw": 10.82, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "purchasing_power": { "pressure": 99.2, "percentile": 0.8, "raw": 3.02, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "gold_real": { "pressure": 99.3, "percentile": 99.3, "raw": 4416.0, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "real_policy_rate": { "pressure": 52.4, "percentile": 47.6, "raw": 1.04, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "niip_gdp": { "pressure": 96.0, "percentile": 4.0, "raw": -72.5, "as_of": "2025-01-01" }, "current_account": { "pressure": 79.6, "percentile": 20.4, "raw": -3.14, "as_of": "2025-10-01" }, "dollar_index": { "pressure": 17.4, "percentile": 82.6, "raw": 119.75, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "dollar_yuan": { "pressure": 30.2, "percentile": 69.8, "raw": 6.9931, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "co2": { "pressure": 98.4, "percentile": 98.4, "raw": 427.49, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "temp_anomaly": { "pressure": 99.3, "percentile": 99.3, "raw": 1.18, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "living_planet": { "pressure": 98.1, "percentile": 1.9, "raw": 0.27, "as_of": "2022-12-31" }, "forest_share": { "pressure": 97.2, "percentile": 2.8, "raw": 31.906, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "fertilizer": { "pressure": 92.1, "percentile": 92.1, "raw": 116.43, "as_of": "2023-12-31" }, "material_footprint": { "pressure": 100.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 13.76, "as_of": "2022-12-31" }, "renewable_share": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 8.59, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "food_price": { "pressure": 84.8, "percentile": 84.8, "raw": 124.5, "as_of": "2025-12-01" }, "overshoot_day": { "pressure": 96.4, "percentile": 3.6, "raw": 213.0, "as_of": "2025-12-31" } }, "missing": {}, "pillars": { "turchin": 77.2, "akkumulation": 75.5, "fiat": 72.5, "planetar": 86.0 }, "pillar_coverage": { "turchin": [ 16, 16 ], "akkumulation": [ 9, 9 ], "fiat": [ 10, 10 ], "planetar": [ 9, 9 ] }, "pressure": 77.8, "level": "HOCH", "n_weighted": 42, "n75": 30, "n90": 22 }, { "year": 2026, "date": "2026-10-12", "label": "heute", "is_today": true, "n_total": 44, "n_measured": 44, "n_missing": 0, "series": { "relative_wage": { "pressure": 98.9, "percentile": 1.1, "raw": 13.24, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "labor_share": { "pressure": 99.7, "percentile": 0.3, "raw": 93.4, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "real_wage_prod": { "pressure": 0.9, "percentile": 99.1, "raw": 32.6, "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, "housing_affordability": { "pressure": 71.7, "percentile": 71.7, "raw": 6.13, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "life_expectancy": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 78.89, "as_of": "2024-12-31" }, "top1_income_share": { "pressure": 91.1, "percentile": 91.1, "raw": 20.73, "as_of": "2024-12-31" }, "wealth_top1": { "pressure": 100.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 32.5, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "pressure": 64.9, "percentile": 64.9, "raw": 14.1, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "tuition_real": { "pressure": 81.2, "percentile": 81.2, "raw": 277.4, "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, "elite_squeeze": { "pressure": 64.2, "percentile": 35.8, "raw": 36.4, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "debt_gdp": { "pressure": 98.3, "percentile": 98.3, "raw": 122.6, "as_of": "2026-01-01" }, "public_debt_gdp": { "pressure": 99.6, "percentile": 99.6, "raw": 98.71, "as_of": "2026-01-01" }, "interest_burden": { "pressure": 76.7, "percentile": 76.7, "raw": 21.1, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "deficit_gdp": { "pressure": 85.6, "percentile": 14.4, "raw": -5.77, "as_of": "2025-01-01" }, "policy_uncertainty": { "pressure": 98.6, "percentile": 98.6, "raw": 298.6, "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, "consumer_sentiment": { "pressure": 98.8, "percentile": 1.2, "raw": 51.7, "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, "profit_rate": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 9.13, "as_of": "2025-01-01" }, "profit_share": { "pressure": 100.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 13.14, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "capacity_utilization": { "pressure": 79.7, "percentile": 20.3, "raw": 76.3, "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, "net_investment": { "pressure": 87.1, "percentile": 12.9, "raw": 4.15, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "inventory_sales": { "pressure": 28.4, "percentile": 28.4, "raw": 1.3, "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, "financial_profit_share": { "pressure": 68.6, "percentile": 68.6, "raw": 23.69, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "total_debt_gdp": { "pressure": 92.1, "percentile": 92.1, "raw": 257.4, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "buffett_indicator": { "pressure": 100.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 255.0, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "prod_wage_gap": { "pressure": 100.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 109.9, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "pressure": 97.3, "percentile": 2.7, "raw": 56.7, "as_of": "2026-06-01" }, "foreign_holdings": { "pressure": 33.3, "percentile": 66.7, "raw": 23.95, "as_of": "2026-01-01" }, "fed_monetization": { "pressure": 59.2, "percentile": 59.2, "raw": 11.57, "as_of": "2026-10-07" }, "purchasing_power": { "pressure": 99.9, "percentile": 0.1, "raw": 2.93, "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, "gold_real": { "pressure": 99.0, "percentile": 99.0, "raw": 4319.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, "real_policy_rate": { "pressure": 60.8, "percentile": 39.2, "raw": 0.35, "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, "niip_gdp": { "pressure": 96.0, "percentile": 4.0, "raw": -72.5, "as_of": "2025-01-01" }, "current_account": { "pressure": 83.6, "percentile": 16.4, "raw": -3.37, "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, "dollar_index": { "pressure": 10.0, "percentile": 90.0, "raw": 121.38, "as_of": "2026-10-02" }, "dollar_yuan": { "pressure": 59.1, "percentile": 40.9, "raw": 6.7038, "as_of": "2026-10-02" }, "co2": { "pressure": 97.6, "percentile": 97.6, "raw": 426.07, "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, "temp_anomaly": { "pressure": 99.3, "percentile": 99.3, "raw": 1.18, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "living_planet": { "pressure": 98.1, "percentile": 1.9, "raw": 0.27, "as_of": "2022-12-31" }, "forest_share": { "pressure": 97.2, "percentile": 2.8, "raw": 31.906, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "fertilizer": { "pressure": 92.1, "percentile": 92.1, "raw": 116.43, "as_of": "2023-12-31" }, "material_footprint": { "pressure": 100.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 13.76, "as_of": "2022-12-31" }, "renewable_share": { "pressure": 0.0, "percentile": 100.0, "raw": 8.59, "as_of": "2025-12-31" }, "food_price": { "pressure": 97.5, "percentile": 97.5, "raw": 136.0, "as_of": "2026-09-01" }, "overshoot_day": { "pressure": 98.2, "percentile": 1.8, "raw": 211.0, "as_of": "2026-12-31" } }, "missing": {}, "pillars": { "akkumulation": 72.7, "fiat": 74.3, "turchin": 77.7, "planetar": 87.3 }, "pillar_coverage": { "turchin": [ 16, 16 ], "akkumulation": [ 9, 9 ], "fiat": [ 10, 10 ], "planetar": [ 9, 9 ] }, "pressure": 78.0, "level": "HOCH", "n_weighted": 42, "n75": 29, "n90": 23 } ], "skipped": [], "first_year": 1950, "first_full_year": 2010, "count_at": 75, "count_at_high": 90, "method": "Derselbe Rechenkern und dieselben Reihen wie im Live-Ring, angewandt auf den Datenstand jedes 5. Jahres zum 31. Dezember. Der Druckwert ist der Perzentilrang des damals letzten Wertes gegen die VOLLE Historie der Reihe \u2014 ein \u00fcber die Zeit fester Ma\u00dfstab, der daf\u00fcr Werte nach dem Stichtag mitbenutzt (R\u00fcckblick-Lesart, wie die Hauptkurve der Ebene H). Die Raste \u201eheute\u201c \u00fcbernimmt die Live-Werte unver\u00e4ndert. S\u00e4ulenmittel und Index eines Stichtags sind die der R\u00fcckrechnung in Ebene H.", "caveats": [ "Nicht gemessen ist nicht ruhig: Reihen ohne Daten zum Stichtag werden als fehlend ausgewiesen und nicht bewertet. Die Z\u00e4hlung bezieht sich auf die gemessenen Reihen, die L\u00fccke steht daneben.", "Wechselnde Zusammensetzung: Die Rose eines fr\u00fchen Stichtags ruht auf weniger Reihen. Ein Vergleich der Z\u00e4hlungen ist deshalb zum Teil Messfortschritt und kein Befund.", "Look-ahead im Ma\u00dfstab: Der Rang eines Wertes von 1980 wird gegen die gesamte, auch sp\u00e4tere Historie gebildet. Das ist f\u00fcr die Vergleichbarkeit n\u00f6tig, war aber 1980 nicht wissbar.", "Keine Vintage-Daten: Verwendet wird die heutige, revidierte Fassung jeder Reihe. Was zum Stichtag ver\u00f6ffentlicht war, weicht davon ab." ] }, "fuses": { "headline": { "available": true, "delta_series": 7.8, "delta_valves": 16.0, "tension_series": 75.9, "tension_valves": 84.1, "tension_base": 68.1, "n_series": 22, "n_valves": 7, "stronger": "ventile", "sentence": "Alle 22 noch nicht gez\u00fcndeten Druckreihen gleichzeitig auf Z\u00fcndwert heben die Systemische Spannung um +7,8 auf 75,9. Das Schlie\u00dfen der 7 Ventile mit Restweg \u2014 ohne dass sich eine einzige Druckreihe bewegt \u2014 hebt sie um +16,0 auf 84,1. Der gr\u00f6\u00dfere Hebel liegt damit nicht im Druck, sondern in der Resilienz: Nicht was noch schlimmer wird, entscheidet, sondern was an Ausgleichsf\u00e4higkeit verlorengeht." }, "base": { "pressure": 78.0, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 68.1, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, "consistency": { "pressure_headline": 78.0, "pressure_reconstructed": 78.0, "tension_headline": 68.1, "tension_reconstructed": 68.1, "matches": true }, "series": [ { "key": "foreign_holdings", "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pillar": "fiat", "unit": "%", "raw": 23.95, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "trend_flag": false, "pressure": 33.3, "slack": 61.7, "already_ignited": false, "lift_pressure": 2.0, "lift_tension": 0.9, "pressure_if": 80.0, "tension_if": 69.0, "approach": { "factor": 0.911, "direction": "steigend", "accel": 12.9, "note": "" }, "contagion": { "factor": 0.2, "n_cold": 0, "n_hot": 0 }, "partners_cold": [], "partners_hot": [], "lever_factor": 0.625, "fuse_score": 11.4 }, { "key": "interest_burden", "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "pillar": "turchin", "unit": "%", "raw": 21.1, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "trend_flag": false, "pressure": 76.7, "slack": 18.3, "already_ignited": false, "lift_pressure": 0.4, "lift_tension": 0.2, "pressure_if": 78.4, "tension_if": 68.3, "approach": { "factor": 1.0, "direction": "steigend", "accel": 36.7, "note": "" }, "contagion": { "factor": 0.667, "n_cold": 2, "n_hot": 0 }, "partners_cold": [ { "key": "profit_rate", "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "phi": 0.513, "n_joint": 16, "pressure": 0.0 }, { "key": "real_wage_prod", "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "phi": 0.452, "n_joint": 7, "pressure": 0.9 } ], "partners_hot": [], "lever_factor": 0.125, "fuse_score": 8.3 }, { "key": "profit_rate", "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "unit": "%", "raw": 9.13, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "trend_flag": false, "pressure": 0.0, "slack": 95.0, "already_ignited": false, "lift_pressure": 3.2, "lift_tension": 1.4, "pressure_if": 81.2, "tension_if": 69.5, "approach": { "factor": 0.2, "direction": "fallend", "accel": -5.9, "note": "" }, "contagion": { "factor": 0.333, "n_cold": 1, "n_hot": 1 }, "partners_cold": [ { "key": "real_wage_prod", "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "phi": 0.617, "n_joint": 6, "pressure": 0.9 } ], "partners_hot": [ { "key": "interest_burden", "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "phi": 0.513, "n_joint": 16, "pressure": 76.7 } ], "lever_factor": 1.0, "fuse_score": 6.7 }, { "key": "renewable_share", "label": "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "pillar": "planetar", "unit": "%", "raw": 8.59, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "trend_flag": true, "pressure": 0.0, "slack": 95.0, "already_ignited": false, "lift_pressure": 2.5, "lift_tension": 1.1, "pressure_if": 80.5, "tension_if": 69.2, "approach": { "factor": 0.413, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "accel": 0.0, "note": "" }, 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"from": "2023-10-11", "n": 157, "tau": -0.86, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-10-13", "n": 261, "tau": -0.93, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-10-12", "n": 522, "tau": -0.07, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-10-11", "n": 1044, "tau": 0.49, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre schlie\u00dfend, \u00fcber 2 Jahre \u00f6ffnend" }, "lever_factor": 0.652, "fuse_score": 13.0 }, { "key": "globalisierung", "label": "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "question": "Lassen sich Kosten weiter \u00fcber die Ausweitung des Weltmarkts dr\u00fccken?", "room": 14.9, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "current": 56.72, "unit": "% des BIP", "as_of": "2024-12-31", "overshoot": null, "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 1970", "already_closed": false, "drop_resilience": 1.6, "lift_tension": 0.9, "resilience_if": 38.9, "tension_if": 69.0, "direction": { "factor": 0.52, "tau": 0.42, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend", "window_years": 10.0, "window_from": "2015-12-31", "tau_long": -0.05, "toward_long": "\u00f6ffnend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 10.0, "from": "2015-12-31", "n": 10, "tau": 0.42, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2004-12-31", "n": 21, "tau": -0.05, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre \u00f6ffnend, \u00fcber 10 Jahre schlie\u00dfend" }, "lever_factor": 0.196, "fuse_score": 10.2 }, { "key": "oekologie", "label": "\u00d6kologisches Ventil", "question": "Wie viele planetare Grenzen sind noch nicht \u00fcberschritten?", "room": 22.2, "status": "eng", "current": 7.0, "unit": "Grenzen", "as_of": "2025-12-31", "overshoot": null, "reference_label": "2 von 9 planetaren Grenzen noch eingehalten (Planetary Health Check 2025)", "already_closed": false, "drop_resilience": 2.4, "lift_tension": 1.4, "resilience_if": 38.1, "tension_if": 69.5, "direction": { "factor": 0.2, "tau": null, "toward": null, "ladder": [], "turned": null, "note": "zu kurze Reihe \u2014 Sockel angesetzt" }, "lever_factor": 0.304, "fuse_score": 6.1 }, { "key": "fiskal", "label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "question": "Kann der Staat noch gegensteuern, ohne dass die Zinslast ihn erdr\u00fcckt?", "room": 0.0, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "current": 21.13, "unit": "% der Einnahmen", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "overshoot": 5.7, "reference_label": "Belastungsschwelle 20 % der Bundeseinnahmen", "already_closed": true, "drop_resilience": 0.0, "lift_tension": 0.0, "resilience_if": 40.5, "tension_if": 68.1, "direction": { "factor": 0.2, "tau": -0.61, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend", "window_years": 2.0, "window_from": "2024-04-01", "tau_long": 0.14, "toward_long": "schlie\u00dfend", "long_window_years": 20.0, "ladder": [ { "years": 2.0, "from": "2024-04-01", "n": 9, "tau": -0.61, "toward": "\u00f6ffnend" }, { "years": 3.0, "from": "2023-07-01", "n": 12, "tau": 0.03, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 5.0, "from": "2021-04-01", "n": 21, "tau": 0.67, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 10.0, "from": "2016-04-01", "n": 41, "tau": 0.49, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" }, { "years": 20.0, "from": "2006-04-01", "n": 81, "tau": 0.14, "toward": "schlie\u00dfend" } ], "turned": true, "note": "gewendet \u2014 \u00fcber 20 Jahre schlie\u00dfend, \u00fcber 2 Jahre \u00f6ffnend" }, "lever_factor": 0.0, "fuse_score": 0.0 } ], "breaking_load": { "ignite_at": 95.0, "n_candidates": 22, "path_pressure_only": { "steps": [ { "n": 0, "key": null, "label": "Ausgangslage", "pressure": 78.0, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 68.1, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 1, "key": "profit_rate", "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pressure": 81.2, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 69.5, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 2, "key": "renewable_share", "label": "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "pressure": 83.8, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 70.6, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 3, "key": "foreign_holdings", "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pressure": 85.7, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 71.4, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 4, "key": "life_expectancy", "label": "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "pressure": 87.1, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 72.0, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 5, "key": "dollar_index", "label": "Handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs", "pressure": 88.5, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 72.6, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 6, "key": "real_wage_prod", "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "pressure": 89.8, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 73.1, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 7, "key": "inventory_sales", "label": "Lagerbest\u00e4nde \u00f7 Umsatz", "pressure": 90.9, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 73.5, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 8, "key": "fed_monetization", "label": "Notenbankanteil an der Staatsschuld", "pressure": 92.0, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 74.0, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 9, "key": "financial_profit_share", "label": "Anteil des Finanzsektors an den Unternehmensgewinnen", "pressure": 92.8, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 74.3, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 10, "key": "real_policy_rate", "label": "Realer Leitzins", "pressure": 93.6, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 74.6, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 11, "key": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "label": "Verm\u00f6gen oberstes Prozent \u00f7 untere H\u00e4lfte", "pressure": 94.0, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 74.8, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "HOCH" }, { "n": 12, "key": "capacity_utilization", "label": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "pressure": 94.5, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.0, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 13, "key": "interest_burden", "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "pressure": 94.9, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.1, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 14, "key": "elite_squeeze", "label": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil der oberen Mittelschicht (90.\u201399. Perzentil)", "pressure": 95.3, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.3, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 15, "key": "housing_affordability", "label": "Medianhaus in Jahresgeh\u00e4ltern", "pressure": 95.7, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.5, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 16, "key": "current_account", "label": "Leistungsbilanzsaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 95.9, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.5, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 17, "key": "deficit_gdp", "label": "Haushaltssaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 96.1, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.6, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 18, "key": "net_investment", "label": "Netto-Investitionsquote", "pressure": 96.3, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.7, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 19, "key": "tuition_real", "label": "Reale Studiengeb\u00fchren", "pressure": 96.5, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.8, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 20, "key": "top1_income_share", "label": "Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents", "pressure": 96.7, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.9, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 21, "key": "total_debt_gdp", "label": "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 96.8, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.9, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 22, "key": "fertilizer", "label": "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "pressure": 96.8, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.9, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" } ], "max": { "n": 22, "key": "fertilizer", "label": "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "pressure": 96.8, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 75.9, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, "critical_at": 12, "critical_via": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "extreme_pressure_at": 7 }, "path_valves_first": { "steps": [ { "n": 0, "key": null, "label": "Ausgangslage", "pressure": 78.0, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 84.1, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 1, "key": "profit_rate", "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pressure": 81.2, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 85.8, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 2, "key": "renewable_share", "label": "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "pressure": 83.8, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 87.2, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 3, "key": "foreign_holdings", "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pressure": 85.7, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 88.2, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 4, "key": "life_expectancy", "label": "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "pressure": 87.1, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 88.9, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 5, "key": "dollar_index", "label": "Handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs", "pressure": 88.5, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 89.6, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 6, "key": "real_wage_prod", "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "pressure": 89.8, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 90.2, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 7, "key": "inventory_sales", "label": "Lagerbest\u00e4nde \u00f7 Umsatz", "pressure": 90.9, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 90.8, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 8, "key": "fed_monetization", "label": "Notenbankanteil an der Staatsschuld", "pressure": 92.0, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 91.3, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 9, "key": "financial_profit_share", "label": "Anteil des Finanzsektors an den Unternehmensgewinnen", "pressure": 92.8, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 91.7, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 10, "key": "real_policy_rate", "label": "Realer Leitzins", "pressure": 93.6, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 92.1, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 11, "key": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "label": "Verm\u00f6gen oberstes Prozent \u00f7 untere H\u00e4lfte", "pressure": 94.0, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 92.3, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 12, "key": "capacity_utilization", "label": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "pressure": 94.5, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 92.6, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 13, "key": "interest_burden", "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "pressure": 94.9, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 92.8, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 14, "key": "elite_squeeze", "label": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil der oberen Mittelschicht (90.\u201399. Perzentil)", "pressure": 95.3, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.0, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 15, "key": "housing_affordability", "label": "Medianhaus in Jahresgeh\u00e4ltern", "pressure": 95.7, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.2, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 16, "key": "current_account", "label": "Leistungsbilanzsaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 95.9, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.3, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 17, "key": "deficit_gdp", "label": "Haushaltssaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 96.1, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.4, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 18, "key": "net_investment", "label": "Netto-Investitionsquote", "pressure": 96.3, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.5, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 19, "key": "tuition_real", "label": "Reale Studiengeb\u00fchren", "pressure": 96.5, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.6, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 20, "key": "top1_income_share", "label": "Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents", "pressure": 96.7, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.7, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 21, "key": "total_debt_gdp", "label": "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 96.8, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.7, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, { "n": 22, "key": "fertilizer", "label": "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "pressure": 96.8, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.7, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" } ], "closed": [ "demografie", "globalisierung", "haushalte", "legitimation", "notenbank", "oekologie", "zins" ], "closed_labels": [ "Zins-Ventil", "Arbeitskr\u00e4fte-Ventil", "Privatverschuldungs-Ventil", "Legitimations-Ventil", "Notenbankbilanz-Ventil", "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "\u00d6kologisches Ventil" ], "max": { "n": 22, "key": "fertilizer", "label": "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "pressure": 96.8, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 93.7, "pressure_level": "EXTREM", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" }, "critical_at": 0, "start": { "n": 0, "key": null, "label": "Ausgangslage", "pressure": 78.0, "resilience": 9.3, "tension": 84.1, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "KRITISCH" } }, "method": "Kandidaten sind alle Reihen unter dem Z\u00fcndwert 95, absteigend nach Hebel gez\u00fcndet. Weg A ver\u00e4ndert nur Druckreihen, Weg B schlie\u00dft zuvor alle noch offenen Ventile. Gez\u00e4hlt wird, ab der wievielten Z\u00fcndung die Kopfzahl eine Stufe h\u00f6her steht. Die Reihenfolge ist die wirkungsst\u00e4rkste \u2014 sie ist keine Behauptung \u00fcber die wahrscheinlichste." }, "scenarios": [ { "key": "fiskaldominanz", "label": "Fiskaldominanz", "thesis": "Die Zinslast frisst den Haushalt, ausl\u00e4ndische K\u00e4ufer ziehen sich zur\u00fcck, die Notenbank muss \u00fcbernehmen. Das Zins-Ventil schlie\u00dft sich, weil Senkungen die Inflation, Erh\u00f6hungen den Haushalt sprengen.", "marker": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen unter 20 % bei gleichzeitig steigendem Notenbankanteil.", "evidence": "B", "members": [ { "key": "interest_burden", "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "pressure": 76.7, "moves": true }, { "key": "debt_gdp", "label": "Staatsschulden \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 98.3, "moves": false }, { "key": "foreign_holdings", "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pressure": 33.3, "moves": true }, { "key": "fed_monetization", "label": "Notenbankanteil an der Staatsschuld", "pressure": 59.2, "moves": true }, { "key": "deficit_gdp", "label": "Haushaltssaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 85.6, "moves": true } ], "valves_closing": [ { "key": "zins", "label": "Zins-Ventil", "room": 75.0 } ], "n_moves": 4, "already_at_limit": [ "Staatsschulden \u00f7 BIP" ], "missing": [], "pressure": 81.6, "resilience": 32.2, "tension": 74.4, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH", "delta_pressure": 3.6, "delta_tension": 6.3, "pillars": { "turchin": 79.9, "akkumulation": 72.7, "fiat": 86.5, "planetar": 87.3 } }, { "key": "kreditmarkt", "label": "Der Kreditmarkt erwacht", "thesis": "Die Risikoaufschl\u00e4ge preisen wieder Risiko ein. Bewertungen, Verschuldung und Finanzgewinne kippen gemeinsam, w\u00e4hrend die Privathaushalte ihren letzten Verschuldungsspielraum verlieren.", "marker": "High-Yield-Spread \u00fcber 500 Basispunkte bei gleichzeitig steigender Ausfallrate \u2014 heute liegt er bei rund 270.", "evidence": "B", "members": [ { "key": "total_debt_gdp", "label": "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 92.1, "moves": true }, { "key": "buffett_indicator", "label": "Aktienmarktwert \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 100.0, "moves": false }, { "key": "financial_profit_share", "label": "Anteil des Finanzsektors an den Unternehmensgewinnen", "pressure": 68.6, "moves": true }, { "key": "inventory_sales", "label": "Lagerbest\u00e4nde \u00f7 Umsatz", "pressure": 28.4, "moves": true } ], "valves_closing": [ { "key": "haushalte", "label": "Privatverschuldungs-Ventil", "room": 69.7 } ], "n_moves": 3, "already_at_limit": [ "Aktienmarktwert \u00f7 BIP" ], "missing": [], "pressure": 80.0, "resilience": 32.8, "tension": 73.3, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH", "delta_pressure": 2.0, "delta_tension": 5.2, "pillars": { "turchin": 77.7, "akkumulation": 80.7, "fiat": 74.3, "planetar": 87.3 } }, { "key": "soziale_zuendung", "label": "Soziale Z\u00fcndung", "thesis": "Turchins Konstellation vervollst\u00e4ndigt sich: Die Lage der Mehrheit verschlechtert sich messbar weiter, w\u00e4hrend das Legitimations-Ventil zugeht.", "marker": "Verbrauchervertrauen auf neuem Allzeittief bei gleichzeitig sinkender Lebenserwartung \u2014 beide Reihen laufen bereits.", "evidence": "C", "members": [ { "key": "relative_wage", "label": "Relativlohn (Medianlohn \u00f7 BIP pro Kopf)", "pressure": 98.9, "moves": false }, { "key": "real_wage_prod", "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "pressure": 0.9, "moves": true }, { "key": "life_expectancy", "label": "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "pressure": 0.0, "moves": true }, { "key": "housing_affordability", "label": "Medianhaus in Jahresgeh\u00e4ltern", "pressure": 71.7, "moves": true }, { "key": "policy_uncertainty", "label": "Wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit", "pressure": 98.6, "moves": false } ], "valves_closing": [ { "key": "legitimation", "label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "room": 10.3 }, { "key": "demografie", "label": "Arbeitskr\u00e4fte-Ventil", "room": 40.2 } ], "n_moves": 3, "already_at_limit": [ "Relativlohn (Medianlohn \u00f7 BIP pro Kopf)", "Wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit" ], "missing": [], "pressure": 81.0, "resilience": 34.9, "tension": 72.6, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH", "delta_pressure": 3.0, "delta_tension": 4.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 89.8, "akkumulation": 72.7, "fiat": 74.3, "planetar": 87.3 } }, { "key": "versorgung", "label": "Versorgungsschock", "thesis": "Klima- und Stoffstromgrenzen schlagen \u00fcber Ernten und D\u00fcngerpreise auf die Nahrungsmittelpreise durch \u2014 der Weg, den Ebene 7 als Kette zeichnet.", "marker": "FAO-Index zwei Quartale \u00fcber dem Niveau von 2011 bei gleichzeitig anhaltender Bodenfeuchte-Anomalie.", "evidence": "B", "members": [ { "key": "food_price", "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "pressure": 97.5, "moves": false }, { "key": "fertilizer", "label": "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "pressure": 92.1, "moves": true }, { "key": "temp_anomaly", "label": "Globale Temperaturabweichung", "pressure": 99.3, "moves": false }, { "key": "forest_share", "label": "Waldfl\u00e4che der Erde", "pressure": 97.2, "moves": false } ], "valves_closing": [ { "key": "oekologie", "label": "\u00d6kologisches Ventil", "room": 22.2 }, { "key": "globalisierung", "label": "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "room": 14.9 } ], "n_moves": 1, "already_at_limit": [ "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "Globale Temperaturabweichung", "Waldfl\u00e4che der Erde" ], "missing": [], "pressure": 78.1, "resilience": 36.4, "tension": 70.5, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH", "delta_pressure": 0.1, "delta_tension": 2.4, "pillars": { "turchin": 77.7, "akkumulation": 72.7, "fiat": 74.3, "planetar": 87.6 } }, { "key": "profitklemme", "label": "Die Profitklemme", "thesis": "Die Profitrate bricht ein \u2014 die eine gro\u00dfe Reihe, die heute noch am unteren Rand ihrer Geschichte steht. Investitionen und Auslastung folgen, das Akkumulationsregime verliert seinen Motor.", "marker": "Unternehmensgewinne zwei Quartale in Folge r\u00fcckl\u00e4ufig bei gleichzeitig fallender Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung.", "evidence": "B", "members": [ { "key": "profit_rate", "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pressure": 0.0, "moves": true }, { "key": "profit_share", "label": "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "pressure": 100.0, "moves": false }, { "key": "capacity_utilization", "label": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "pressure": 79.7, "moves": true }, { "key": "net_investment", "label": "Netto-Investitionsquote", "pressure": 87.1, "moves": true } ], "valves_closing": [], "n_moves": 3, "already_at_limit": [ "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)" ], "missing": [], "pressure": 82.0, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 69.8, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH", "delta_pressure": 4.0, "delta_tension": 1.7, "pillars": { "turchin": 77.7, "akkumulation": 88.6, "fiat": 74.3, "planetar": 87.3 } }, { "key": "dollarordnung", "label": "Die Dollarordnung br\u00f6ckelt schneller", "thesis": "Der Reserveanteil f\u00e4llt beschleunigt, die Au\u00dfenposition verschlechtert sich, Gold \u00fcbernimmt Reservefunktion. Kein Bruch, sondern ein Tempowechsel der Erosion.", "marker": "COFER-Anteil unter 55 % und Zentralbank-Goldk\u00e4ufe \u00fcber 1.000 Tonnen im Jahr \u00fcber mehrere Quartale.", "evidence": "C", "members": [ { "key": "dollar_reserve_share", "label": "Dollar-Anteil an den Weltw\u00e4hrungsreserven", "pressure": 97.3, "moves": false }, { "key": "foreign_holdings", "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pressure": 33.3, "moves": true }, { "key": "niip_gdp", "label": "Netto-Auslandsverm\u00f6gensposition \u00f7 BIP", "pressure": 96.0, "moves": false }, { "key": "dollar_index", "label": "Handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs", "pressure": 10.0, "moves": true }, { "key": "gold_real", "label": "Realer Goldpreis", "pressure": 99.0, "moves": false } ], "valves_closing": [], "n_moves": 2, "already_at_limit": [ "Dollar-Anteil an den Weltw\u00e4hrungsreserven", "Netto-Auslandsverm\u00f6gensposition \u00f7 BIP", "Realer Goldpreis" ], "missing": [], "pressure": 81.4, "resilience": 40.5, "tension": 69.6, "pressure_level": "HOCH", "tension_level": "HOCH", "delta_pressure": 3.4, "delta_tension": 1.5, "pillars": { "turchin": 77.7, "akkumulation": 72.7, "fiat": 87.7, "planetar": 87.3 } } ], "n_candidates": 22, "n_already": 20, "top_series": [ "foreign_holdings", "interest_burden", "profit_rate", "renewable_share", "real_wage_prod" ], "top_valve": "zins", "thresholds": { "ignite_at": 95.0, "hot_at": 75.0, "phi_at": 0.4, "min_joint": 3, "contagion_full": 3, "floor": 0.2, "accel_full": 20.0, "direction_factor": { "steigend": 1.0, "seitw\u00e4rts": 0.55, "fallend": 0.25 } }, "method": "F\u00fcr jede Reihe wird der Druckwert auf 95 gesetzt und die Kopfzeile mit demselben Rechenkern neu gerechnet; die Differenz ist der Hebel. F\u00fcr jedes Ventil dasselbe mit Restweg null. Z\u00fcndrang = Hebel \u00d7 Anmarsch \u00d7 Kopplung, multiplikativ wie Turchins PSI: F\u00e4llt ein Faktor aus, ist die Reihe keine Z\u00fcndschnur. Der Hebel ist auf den gr\u00f6\u00dften im Set normiert, Anmarsch stammt aus der Dynamik des Stress-Tracks (Ebene 4), Kopplung aus der Zahl der heute noch kalten Partner mit Phi \u2265 0.4 (Matrix C, Ebene 3). Anmarsch und Kopplung haben einen Sockel von 0.2, damit fehlende Daten nicht wie Entwarnung wirken.", "caveats": [ "Der Z\u00fcndwert 95 ist eine gesetzte Konvention, kein gemessener Kipppunkt. Er markiert \u201eso extrem wie in den obersten f\u00fcnf Prozent der eigenen Geschichte\u201c \u2014 nicht \u201eBruch\u201c.", "Keine Wahrscheinlichkeiten: Die Ebene rechnet aus, WAS eine Z\u00fcndung bewirkt, nicht, OB oder WANN sie eintritt.", "Die Kopplung misst historische Gleichzeitigkeit, keine Kausalit\u00e4t. Dass zwei Reihen zusammen ausschlugen, hei\u00dft nicht, dass die eine die andere ausl\u00f6st.", "Statische Rechnung ohne R\u00fcckkopplung: Eine gez\u00fcndete Reihe zieht ihre Partner hier nicht mit. Die Hebel sind deshalb eher Unter- als Obergrenzen.", "Kein Wert dieser Ebene flie\u00dft in Druck, Resilienz oder Spannung der Kopfzeile ein." ] }, "overlap_audit": [ { "valve_key": "fiskal", "valve_label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "indicator_key": "interest_burden", "indicator_label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "basis": "identischer Serien-Bauplan \u2014 derselbe Sachverhalt steht im Druck-Set und im Resilienz-Set" }, { "valve_key": "legitimation", "valve_label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "indicator_key": "consumer_sentiment", "indicator_label": "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "basis": "identischer Serien-Bauplan \u2014 derselbe Sachverhalt steht im Druck-Set und im Resilienz-Set" } ], "transform_roles": { "relative_wage": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "s\u00e4kular fallende Verh\u00e4ltniszahl \u2014 Alarm ist der Einbruch unter den eigenen Trend, nicht der arithmetisch erwartbare Tiefstand", "params": null }, "labor_share": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "f\u00e4llt seit 1947 fast monoton; Niveau-Perzentil w\u00e4re Trendfallen-Artefakt", "params": null }, "real_wage_prod": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "real trendend gewachsen; Stress ist Stagnation/R\u00fcckfall unter den eigenen Pfad", "params": null }, "housing_affordability": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Jahresgeh\u00e4lter pro Haus sind eine begrenzte Belastungsquote \u2014 das Niveau ist die Zumutung", "params": null }, "life_expectancy": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "steigt s\u00e4kular; die Verelendungsaussage ist der Abfall unter den eigenen Trend (deaths of despair)", "params": null }, "top1_income_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Anteil mit vollem S\u00e4kularzyklus seit 1913 (1928er-Maximum) \u2014 das Niveau ist Turchins Messgr\u00f6\u00dfe", "params": null }, "wealth_top1": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Verm\u00f6gensanteil, kurze Reihe \u2014 Niveau als Konzentrationsma\u00df", "params": null }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "nach oben offenes Verh\u00e4ltnis, seit 1989 fast monoton steigend \u2014 Trendabstand statt Rekord-Arithmetik", "params": null }, "tuition_real": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "realer Preisindex mit Jahrzehnttrend; Stress ist Beschleunigung \u00fcber den eigenen Pfad", "params": null }, "elite_squeeze": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Anteil der Anw\u00e4rterschicht \u2014 das Niveau misst die Verdr\u00e4ngung", "params": null }, "debt_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Tragf\u00e4higkeit h\u00e4ngt am Niveau der Quote; die Dynamik wird separat in Ebene 4 gemessen", "params": null }, "public_debt_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "wie die Bruttoquote eine Niveaugr\u00f6\u00dfe \u2014 dasselbe Ma\u00df, engere Abgrenzung", "params": null }, "interest_burden": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "zyklische Flussgr\u00f6\u00dfen-Quote (Maximum 1991) \u2014 das Niveau ist die fiskalische Bindung", "params": null }, "deficit_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4rer Saldo in BIP-Prozent", "params": null }, "policy_uncertainty": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "gegl\u00e4tteter, langfristig station\u00e4rer Zeitungsindex", "params": null }, "consumer_sentiment": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Umfrageindex ohne S\u00e4kulartrend-Konstruktion", "params": null }, "profit_rate": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "zyklische Rate \u2014 genau die Gr\u00f6\u00dfe, deren Niveau die Marx-These pr\u00fcft", "params": null }, "profit_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzte BIP-Quote", "params": null }, "capacity_utilization": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzte Auslastungsquote, mean-reverting", "params": null }, "net_investment": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Flussgr\u00f6\u00dfe in BIP-Prozent", "params": null }, "inventory_sales": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4res Umschlagsverh\u00e4ltnis", "params": null }, "financial_profit_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Gewinnanteil", "params": null }, "total_debt_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Tragf\u00e4higkeitsniveau wie debt_gdp; Dynamik separat in Ebene 4", "params": null }, "buffett_indicator": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "Bewertungsquote mit strukturellem Aufw\u00e4rtstrend (Aktienkultur, Gewinnverlagerung) \u2014 Stress ist der Abstand zum eigenen Pfad", "params": null }, "prod_wage_gap": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "seit den 1970ern fast monoton \u00f6ffnende Schere; Niveau-Rekord w\u00e4re Trendfallen-Artefakt", "params": null }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "tcode": "CHANGE", "label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "why": "Niveau UND Tempo relevant; als Stressma\u00df z\u00e4hlt das Erosionstempo \u2014 das Niveau zeigt die S\u00e4ulenrechnung", "params": null }, "foreign_holdings": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Finanzierungsanteil", "params": null }, "fed_monetization": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Selbstfinanzierungsanteil", "params": null }, "purchasing_power": { "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "why": "f\u00e4llt per Konstruktion monoton \u2014 nur das Entwertungstempo (\u2248 Inflationsregime) tr\u00e4gt Information", "params": null }, "gold_real": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "realer Preis pendelt \u00fcber Jahrzehnte (1980, 2011, heute) \u2014 das Niveau ist das Misstrauensvotum", "params": null }, "real_policy_rate": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4re reale Rate", "params": null }, "niip_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Nettoposition in BIP-Prozent \u2014 Tragf\u00e4higkeitsniveau, Dynamik in Ebene 4", "params": null }, "current_account": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4rer Saldo in BIP-Prozent", "params": null }, "dollar_index": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "kurze FX-Reihe ohne S\u00e4kulartrend", "params": null }, "dollar_yuan": { "tcode": "CHANGE", "label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "why": "bilateraler Kurs eines gesteuerten Wechselkursregimes \u2014 die Aussage liegt im Aufwertungstempo, nicht im Niveau (6,71 heute gegen 6,04 im Rekordjahr 2014)", "params": null }, "co2": { "tcode": "THRESHOLD_DISTANCE", "label": "Abstand zur physischen Grenze", "why": "physische Grenze 350 ppm (Rockstr\u00f6m et al.) \u2014 hier IST das Niveau der Punkt, gemessen als Abstand zur Grenze", "params": { "threshold": 350.0, "danger_above": true } }, "temp_anomaly": { "tcode": "THRESHOLD_DISTANCE", "label": "Abstand zur physischen Grenze", "why": "physische Grenze 1,5 \u00b0C (Paris) \u2014 Abstand zur Schwelle statt Rangstatistik", "params": { "threshold": 1.5, "danger_above": true } }, "living_planet": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Bestandsindex \u2014 der Zustand der Biosph\u00e4re ist ein Niveau, kein Trendabstand", "params": null }, "forest_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Fl\u00e4chenbestand", "params": null }, "fertilizer": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Stoffeintrag; die N/P-Grenzen sind weit \u00fcberschritten \u2014 das Niveau ist die Belastung", "params": null }, "material_footprint": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Durchsatz pro Kopf", "params": null }, "renewable_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Energieanteil", "params": null }, "food_price": { "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "why": "nominaler Preisindex \u2014 systemrelevant sind die Preissch\u00fcbe (2008, 2011), nicht das inflationsgetriebene Niveau", "params": null }, "overshoot_day": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Tag im Jahr ist ein begrenztes physisches Budgetma\u00df", "params": null } }, "falsification": { "contra_indicators": [ { "key": "life_expectancy", "label": "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "pillar": "turchin", "pressure": 0.0, "raw": 78.89, "unit": "Jahre", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 0 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1960 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "profit_rate", "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "pressure": 0.0, "raw": 9.13, "unit": "%", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 0 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1947 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "renewable_share", "label": "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "pillar": "planetar", "pressure": 0.0, "raw": 8.59, "unit": "%", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 0 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1965 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "real_wage_prod", "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "pillar": "turchin", "pressure": 0.9, "raw": 32.6, "unit": "USD/h, heutige Preise", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 1 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1964 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "dollar_index", "label": "Handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs", "pillar": "fiat", "pressure": 10.0, "raw": 121.38, "unit": "Index 2006=100", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 10 % aller Beobachtungen seit 2006 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "inventory_sales", "label": "Lagerbest\u00e4nde \u00f7 Umsatz", "pillar": "akkumulation", "pressure": 28.4, "raw": 1.3, "unit": "Monate", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 28 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1992 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "foreign_holdings", "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pillar": "fiat", "pressure": 33.3, "raw": 23.95, "unit": "%", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 33 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1970 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" } ], "n_contra": 7, "criteria": [ { "claim": "Die Ventile sind verbraucht.", "refuted_if": "Der mittlere Restweg \u00fcber alle acht Ventile steigt \u00fcber 60 % \u2014 dann hat das System weiterhin geordnete Wege, Druck abzulassen.", "check": "mean_room_gt_60", "status": "haelt", "detail": "mittlerer Restweg 35 %" }, { "claim": "Die Krisenkonstellation ist vollst\u00e4ndig.", "refuted_if": "Eine der drei Turchin-Komponenten f\u00e4llt unter 40 \u2014 dann fehlt eine notwendige Bedingung.", "check": "psi_component_lt_40", "status": "haelt", "detail": "schw\u00e4chste Komponente: Massenmobilisierungspotenzial bei 60" }, { "claim": "Das System verliert seine R\u00fcckstellkraft.", "refuted_if": "Kein einziger der gepr\u00fcften Kernindikatoren zeigt ein mindestens erkennbares Verlangsamungssignal (steigende Autokorrelation UND steigende Varianz, beide Trends \u2265 0,25).", "check": "no_csd_signal", "status": "haelt", "detail": "1 von 6 Kernreihen mit Signal" }, { "claim": "Die Reall\u00f6hne entkoppeln sich dauerhaft von der Produktivit\u00e4t.", "refuted_if": "Die Lohnquote steigt \u00fcber mehrere Jahre wieder an.", "check": "labor_share_rising", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Lohnquote 10-Jahres-Ver\u00e4nderung -6.0" }, { "claim": "Die Dollarordnung erodiert.", "refuted_if": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen und handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs steigen gemeinsam \u00fcber mehrere Jahre.", "check": "dollar_strengthening", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Dollarkurs +9.1, Auslandsanteil -8.7 (10 Jahre)" }, { "claim": "Die Krisendimensionen treten gleichzeitig auf.", "refuted_if": "Der Co-Stress-Anteil (gleichzeitig extreme Reihen) liegt unter dem Median seiner eigenen Historie \u2014 dann ist die heutige Gleichzeitigkeit historisch unauff\u00e4llig.", "check": "costress_below_median", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Gleichzeitigkeit heute 39 %, mindestens so hoch in 30 % aller Jahre" }, { "claim": "Die Absorptionsf\u00e4higkeit des Systems nimmt ab.", "refuted_if": "Der Resilienz-Index steigt \u00fcber 60 \u2014 dann verf\u00fcgt das System \u00fcber \u00fcberwiegend offene Ausgleichswege.", "check": "resilience_above_60", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Resilienz-Index 40 von 100" } ], "n_refuted": 0, "summary": "7 Indikatoren liegen unter dem Median ihrer eigenen Historie und sprechen damit gegen die Krisenthese; 0 von 7 formulierten Widerlegungskriterien greifen aktuell." }, "records": [ { "key": "labor_share", "label": "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "pillar": "turchin", "raw": 93.4, "unit": "Index 2017=100", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "since": null, "start": "1947-01-01", "direction": "Tiefststand" }, { "key": "profit_share", "label": "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "raw": 13.14, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "since": null, "start": "1947-01-01", "direction": "H\u00f6chststand" }, { "key": "buffett_indicator", "label": "Aktienmarktwert \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "akkumulation", "raw": 255.0, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "since": null, "start": "1946-10-01", "direction": "H\u00f6chststand" }, { "key": "dollar_reserve_share", "label": "Dollar-Anteil an den Weltw\u00e4hrungsreserven", "pillar": "fiat", "raw": 56.7, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "since": null, "start": "1999-03-01", "direction": "Tiefststand" }, { "key": "gold_real", "label": "Realer Goldpreis", "pillar": "fiat", "raw": 4319.0, "unit": "USD, heutige Preise", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "since": null, "start": "1968-04-01", "direction": "H\u00f6chststand" }, { "key": "temp_anomaly", "label": "Globale Temperaturabweichung", "pillar": "planetar", "raw": 1.18, "unit": "\u00b0C gg\u00fc. 1951\u201380", "as_of": "2025-12-31", "since": null, "start": "1880-12-31", "direction": "H\u00f6chststand" } ], "planetary_boundaries": { "source": "Planetary Health Check 2025, PBScience (Potsdam-Institut f\u00fcr Klimafolgenforschung u.a.), Executive Summary", "as_of": "2025-09", "static": true, "n_total": 9, "n_transgressed": 7, "boundaries": [ { "name": "Klimawandel", "variable": "CO\u2082-Konzentration", "unit": "ppm", "boundary": 350, "high_risk": 450, "value": 423, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Klimawandel", "variable": "Strahlungsantrieb", "unit": "W/m\u00b2", "boundary": 1.0, "high_risk": 1.5, "value": 2.97, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Integrit\u00e4t der Biosph\u00e4re", "variable": "Menschliche Aneignung der Prim\u00e4rproduktion", "unit": "%", "boundary": 10, "high_risk": 20, "value": 30, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Integrit\u00e4t der Biosph\u00e4re", "variable": "Aussterberate", "unit": "E/MSY", "boundary": 10, "high_risk": 100, "value": 100, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend", "note": "Sch\u00e4tzbereich 100\u20131000, hier untere Grenze" }, { "name": "Landnutzungswandel", "variable": "Verbleibende Waldfl\u00e4che", "unit": "% des urspr\u00fcnglichen Waldes", "boundary": 75, "high_risk": 54, "value": 59, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "fallend", "note": "Hier sind Werte UNTER der Grenze das Problem" }, { "name": "S\u00fc\u00dfwasserwandel", "variable": "Gest\u00f6rter Abfluss (Blauwasser)", "unit": "% der Landfl\u00e4che", "boundary": 12.9, "high_risk": 50, "value": 22.6, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "S\u00fc\u00dfwasserwandel", "variable": "Gest\u00f6rte Bodenfeuchte (Gr\u00fcnwasser)", "unit": "% der Landfl\u00e4che", "boundary": 12.4, "high_risk": 50, "value": 22.0, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Biogeochemische Kreisl\u00e4ufe", "variable": "Phosphor auf Ackerland", "unit": "Tg/Jahr", "boundary": 6.2, "high_risk": 11.2, "value": 18.2, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Biogeochemische Kreisl\u00e4ufe", "variable": "Stickstofffixierung", "unit": "Tg/Jahr", "boundary": 62, "high_risk": 82, "value": 165, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Ozeanversauerung", "variable": "Aragonit-S\u00e4ttigung", "unit": "\u03a9", "boundary": 2.86, "high_risk": 2.75, "value": 2.84, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "fallend", "note": "Erstmals im Bericht 2025 als \u00fcberschritten ausgewiesen" }, { "name": "Aerosolbelastung", "variable": "Interhemisph\u00e4rische AOD-Differenz", "unit": "", "boundary": 0.1, "high_risk": 0.25, "value": 0.063, "status": "eingehalten", "trend": "verbessernd" }, { "name": "Stratosph\u00e4risches Ozon", "variable": "Globales Mittel", "unit": "DU", "boundary": 277, "high_risk": 263, "value": 285.7, "status": "eingehalten", "trend": "erholend" }, { "name": "Neuartige Substanzen", "variable": "Ungepr\u00fcfte synthetische Chemikalien", "unit": "", "boundary": 0, "high_risk": null, "value": null, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "verschlechternd", "note": "Nicht quantifiziert; der Bericht stuft die Grenze als \u00fcberschritten ein" } ] }, "groups": { "mmp": "Lage der Mehrheit", "emp": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion", "sfd": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise", "instab": "Realisierte Instabilit\u00e4t (Ergebnisgr\u00f6\u00dfe, nicht Teil des PSI)", "profit": "Profitabilit\u00e4t", "realisierung": "Realisierung und Absatz", "finanzialisierung": "Finanzialisierung", "reserve": "Reservestatus", "geldwert": "Geldwert", "aussenposition": "Au\u00dfenposition", "biosphaere": "Biosph\u00e4re", "stoffstrom": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "coverage": { "n_indicators": 44, "n_configured": 44, "failures": [], "stale_sources": [], "oldest_start": "1880-12-31" }, "compute_seconds": 3.3 }