{ "timestamp": "2026-08-13T01:20:01.545108", "version": "2.1", "verdict": { "pressure_index": 77.2, "level": "STRUKTURELL KRITISCH", "headline": "Hoher Strukturdruck bei gleichzeitig engen Ausgleichsmechanismen", "valve_room": 33.8, "psi": 42.2, "csd_hits": 1, "csd_total": 6, "n_contra": 7, "resilience_index": 39.3, "resilience_level": "NIEDRIG", "tension_central": 68.5, "tension_band": [ 46.9, 69.0 ], "tension_level": "HOCH", "dynamics_direction": "steigend", "costress_latest": 43.3, "costress_base_rate": 13.6, "disclaimer": "Dieses Instrument misst Druck, nicht Zeit. Es gibt keine kalibrierte Beziehung zwischen Strukturdruck und dem Zeitpunkt eines Bruchs \u2014 hohe Werte haben historisch sowohl Umbr\u00fcche als auch jahrzehntelange Fortdauer vorausgegangen. Wer aus diesen Zahlen ein Datum ableitet, tut das ohne Deckung durch die Daten." }, "pillars": { "turchin": { "label": "Strukturell-demographischer Druck", "short": "Turchin", "roman": "I", "question": "Verarmt die Mehrheit, w\u00e4hrend zu viele Eliten um zu wenige Posten k\u00e4mpfen und der Staat seine Zahlungsf\u00e4higkeit verliert?", "theory": "Peter Turchin, Structural-Demographic Theory (Secular Cycles 2009; Ages of Discord 2016). Krisenphasen entstehen aus dem Zusammentreffen von relativer Verelendung, Eliten\u00fcberproduktion und Staatsfinanzkrise.", "key": "turchin", "pressure": 77.5, "level": "HOCH", "n_indicators": 15, "keys": [ "labor_share", "consumer_sentiment", "wealth_top1", "policy_uncertainty", "relative_wage", "debt_gdp", "top1_income_share", "deficit_gdp", "interest_burden", "tuition_real", "housing_affordability", "elite_squeeze", "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "real_wage_prod", "life_expectancy" ], "top_driver": "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)" }, "akkumulation": { "label": "Akkumulationsregime", "short": "Marx", "roman": "II", "question": "St\u00f6\u00dft die Kapitalverwertung an ihre eigenen Schranken \u2014 Profitrate, Absatz, Investitionsstau, Finanzialisierung?", "theory": "Marxsche Krisentheorie in ihren drei Varianten: tendenzieller Fall der Profitrate, \u00dcberproduktion/Unterkonsumtion und Profit Squeeze. Die Indikatoren sind so gew\u00e4hlt, dass sie zwischen ihnen unterscheiden k\u00f6nnen, statt sie zu vermengen.", "key": "akkumulation", "pressure": 72.5, "level": "ERHOEHT", "n_indicators": 9, "keys": [ "prod_wage_gap", "profit_share", "buffett_indicator", "total_debt_gdp", "net_investment", "capacity_utilization", "financial_profit_share", "inventory_sales", "profit_rate" ], "top_driver": "Produktivit\u00e4ts-Lohn-Schere" }, "fiat": { "label": "Fiat- und Dollarordnung", "short": "Dollar", "roman": "III", "question": "Erodiert die monet\u00e4re Grundlage der US-Hegemonie?", "theory": "Erweiterung der Werttheorie um staatliches Kreditgeld: Seit 1971 ist der Weltgeldstandard eine Verbindlichkeit des US-Staates. Damit h\u00e4ngt die Hegemonie daran, dass Ausland und Zentralbanken diese Verbindlichkeit weiter halten \u2014 eine messbare, keine ideologische Frage.", "key": "fiat", "pressure": 74.4, "level": "ERHOEHT", "n_indicators": 9, "keys": [ "purchasing_power", "gold_real", "dollar_reserve_share", "niip_gdp", "current_account", "real_policy_rate", "fed_monetization", "foreign_holdings", "dollar_index" ], "top_driver": "Kaufkraft des Dollars (1913 = 100)" }, "planetar": { "label": "Planetare Grenzen", "short": "Biosph\u00e4re", "roman": "IV", "question": "Zehrt das Wirtschaftsmodell die stofflichen Grundlagen auf, auf denen es beruht?", "theory": "Rockstr\u00f6m et al. 2009, Richardson et al. 2023, Planetary Health Check 2025. Die einzige Schranke im Set, die sich weder durch Geldpolitik noch durch Umverteilung verschieben l\u00e4sst.", "key": "planetar", "pressure": 84.2, "level": "HOCH", "n_indicators": 9, "keys": [ "temp_anomaly", "co2", "overshoot_day", "forest_share", "living_planet", "food_price", "fertilizer", "material_footprint", "renewable_share" ], "top_driver": "Globale Temperaturabweichung" } }, "components": { "relative_wage": { "label": "Relativlohn (Medianlohn \u00f7 BIP pro Kopf)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.4, "unit": "Index", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 13.28, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1979-01-01", "n": 189, "percentile": 1.1, "pressure": 98.9, "zscore": 1.38, "tau": -0.871, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -1.07, "change_30y": -3.08, "note": "Turchins zentrale Kennziffer f\u00fcr die Lage der Mehrheit. Nicht der Reallohn, sondern sein Verh\u00e4ltnis zum erwirtschafteten Wohlstand pro Kopf: Sie misst, ob die Mehrheit am Produktivit\u00e4tszuwachs beteiligt wird. Beide Gr\u00f6\u00dfen nominal, damit kein Deflatorunterschied das Verh\u00e4ltnis verzerrt.", "source": "BLS/BEA \u00fcber FRED (LES1252881500Q, A939RC0Q052SBEA)", "spark": [ [ "1979-01-01", 20.582 ], [ "1979-04-01", 20.7285 ], [ "1979-10-01", 20.5877 ], [ "1980-01-01", 20.6454 ], [ "1980-07-01", 21.2375 ], [ "1980-10-01", 20.6051 ], [ "1981-04-01", 20.2614 ], [ "1981-10-01", 20.5504 ], [ "1982-01-01", 20.8481 ], [ "1982-07-01", 20.9269 ], [ "1982-10-01", 20.9603 ], [ "1983-04-01", 20.3374 ], [ "1983-07-01", 20.0954 ], [ "1984-01-01", 19.3525 ], [ "1984-07-01", 18.9477 ], [ "1984-10-01", 19.0427 ], [ "1985-04-01", 19.2436 ], [ "1985-07-01", 18.7796 ], [ "1986-01-01", 18.7294 ], [ "1986-04-01", 18.9318 ], [ "1986-10-01", 18.9286 ], [ "1987-04-01", 18.7204 ], [ "1987-07-01", 18.7646 ], [ "1988-01-01", 18.3875 ], [ "1988-04-01", 18.0121 ], [ "1988-10-01", 17.766 ], [ "1989-01-01", 17.5745 ], [ "1989-07-01", 17.4401 ], [ "1990-01-01", 17.2947 ], [ "1990-04-01", 17.2616 ], [ "1990-10-01", 17.4645 ], [ "1991-01-01", 17.8056 ], [ "1991-07-01", 17.4742 ], [ "1991-10-01", 17.4918 ], [ "1992-04-01", 17.3582 ], [ "1992-10-01", 17.1261 ], [ "1993-01-01", 17.3217 ], [ "1993-07-01", 17.4641 ], [ "1993-10-01", 17.3404 ], [ "1994-04-01", 16.9492 ], [ "1994-10-01", 16.6862 ], [ "1995-01-01", 16.6878 ], [ "1995-07-01", 16.8196 ], [ "1995-10-01", 16.6081 ], [ "1996-04-01", 16.3572 ], [ "1996-07-01", 16.3776 ], [ "1997-01-01", 16.2129 ], [ "1997-07-01", 15.9056 ], [ "1997-10-01", 15.8929 ], [ "1998-04-01", 15.9218 ], [ "1998-07-01", 15.9187 ], [ "1999-01-01", 15.7497 ], [ "1999-04-01", 15.9831 ], [ "1999-10-01", 15.985 ], [ "2000-04-01", 15.7407 ], [ "2000-07-01", 15.8674 ], [ "2001-01-01", 15.8773 ], [ "2001-04-01", 15.963 ], [ "2001-10-01", 16.1949 ], [ "2002-01-01", 16.1513 ], [ "2002-07-01", 15.9584 ], [ "2003-01-01", 15.9392 ], [ "2003-04-01", 15.8816 ], [ "2003-10-01", 15.4353 ], [ "2004-01-01", 15.4163 ], [ "2004-07-01", 15.1512 ], [ "2004-10-01", 15.1782 ], [ "2005-04-01", 14.7994 ], [ "2005-10-01", 14.6711 ], [ "2006-01-01", 14.4937 ], [ "2006-07-01", 14.6244 ], [ "2006-10-01", 14.5491 ], [ "2007-04-01", 14.4973 ], [ "2007-07-01", 14.4765 ], [ "2008-01-01", 14.7141 ], [ "2008-07-01", 14.8163 ], [ "2008-10-01", 15.2095 ], [ "2009-04-01", 15.726 ], [ "2009-07-01", 15.795 ], [ "2010-01-01", 15.6495 ], [ "2010-07-01", 15.2803 ], [ "2010-10-01", 15.2266 ], [ "2011-04-01", 15.1184 ], [ "2011-07-01", 15.183 ], [ "2012-01-01", 14.9204 ], [ "2012-04-01", 14.9746 ], [ "2012-10-01", 14.8226 ], [ "2013-04-01", 14.7115 ], [ "2013-07-01", 14.5839 ], [ "2014-01-01", 14.6372 ], [ "2014-04-01", 14.2316 ], [ "2014-10-01", 14.2297 ], [ "2015-01-01", 14.2596 ], [ "2015-07-01", 14.1751 ], [ "2016-01-01", 14.3796 ], [ "2016-04-01", 14.3488 ], [ "2016-10-01", 14.4109 ], [ "2017-01-01", 14.5099 ], [ "2017-07-01", 14.3531 ], [ "2017-10-01", 13.9666 ], [ "2018-04-01", 14.0631 ], [ "2018-10-01", 14.1307 ], [ "2019-01-01", 14.0469 ], [ "2019-07-01", 14.0257 ], [ "2019-10-01", 14.1041 ], [ "2020-04-01", 16.7559 ], [ "2020-07-01", 15.2171 ], [ "2021-01-01", 14.4062 ], [ "2021-07-01", 13.8976 ], [ "2021-10-01", 13.5317 ], [ "2022-04-01", 13.5334 ], [ "2022-07-01", 13.6081 ], [ "2023-01-01", 13.542 ], [ "2023-04-01", 13.5487 ], [ "2023-10-01", 13.5555 ], [ "2024-04-01", 13.4196 ], [ "2024-07-01", 13.4535 ], [ "2025-01-01", 13.5451 ], [ "2025-04-01", 13.5097 ], [ "2026-01-01", 13.2558 ], [ "2026-04-01", 13.2772 ] ], "key": "relative_wage", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "labor_share": { "label": "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "Index 2017=100", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": 93.5, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 0.3, "pressure": 99.7, "zscore": 2.67, "tau": -0.693, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -5.9, "change_30y": -13.5, "note": "Anteil der Wertsch\u00f6pfung, der an Arbeit geht. F\u00e4llt seit 1947 von 116 auf unter 95 \u2014 die l\u00e4ngste zusammenh\u00e4ngende Verteilungsverschiebung im Set.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (PRS85006173)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 115.996 ], [ "1947-07-01", 116.239 ], [ "1948-04-01", 114.747 ], [ "1948-10-01", 113.804 ], [ "1949-07-01", 112.159 ], [ "1950-04-01", 112.161 ], [ "1950-10-01", 111.037 ], [ "1951-07-01", 109.834 ], [ "1952-04-01", 112.321 ], [ "1952-10-01", 112.693 ], [ "1953-07-01", 113.504 ], [ "1954-04-01", 114.401 ], [ "1954-10-01", 112.749 ], [ "1955-07-01", 111.466 ], [ "1956-04-01", 114.78 ], [ "1956-10-01", 115.106 ], [ "1957-07-01", 114.313 ], [ "1958-04-01", 115.039 ], [ "1958-10-01", 112.982 ], [ "1959-07-01", 113.081 ], [ "1960-04-01", 115.916 ], [ "1960-10-01", 117.123 ], [ "1961-07-01", 113.77 ], [ "1962-01-01", 113.026 ], [ "1962-10-01", 112.89 ], [ "1963-07-01", 111.191 ], [ "1964-01-01", 110.518 ], [ "1964-10-01", 112.116 ], [ "1965-07-01", 109.183 ], [ "1966-01-01", 108.609 ], [ "1966-10-01", 109.866 ], [ "1967-07-01", 110.659 ], [ "1968-01-01", 110.125 ], [ "1968-10-01", 111.648 ], [ "1969-07-01", 113.187 ], [ "1970-01-01", 115.245 ], [ "1970-10-01", 113.699 ], [ "1971-07-01", 110.939 ], [ "1972-01-01", 112.234 ], [ "1972-10-01", 111.527 ], [ "1973-07-01", 113.108 ], [ "1974-01-01", 113.742 ], [ "1974-10-01", 112.602 ], [ "1975-04-01", 110.375 ], [ "1976-01-01", 108.64 ], [ "1976-10-01", 108.957 ], [ "1977-04-01", 108.779 ], [ "1978-01-01", 111.254 ], [ "1978-10-01", 108.758 ], [ "1979-04-01", 110.435 ], [ "1980-01-01", 111.222 ], [ "1980-10-01", 112.24 ], [ "1981-04-01", 111.008 ], [ "1982-01-01", 113.136 ], [ "1982-10-01", 112.145 ], [ "1983-04-01", 109.523 ], [ "1984-01-01", 108.616 ], [ "1984-10-01", 108.545 ], [ "1985-04-01", 108.403 ], [ "1986-01-01", 108.895 ], [ "1986-10-01", 111.226 ], [ "1987-04-01", 111.035 ], [ "1988-01-01", 111.922 ], [ "1988-07-01", 111.745 ], [ "1989-04-01", 109.476 ], [ "1990-01-01", 110.182 ], [ "1990-07-01", 110.63 ], [ "1991-04-01", 110.64 ], [ "1992-01-01", 111.299 ], [ "1992-07-01", 110.669 ], [ "1993-04-01", 109.978 ], [ "1994-01-01", 107.681 ], [ "1994-07-01", 107.897 ], [ "1995-04-01", 107.095 ], [ "1996-01-01", 107.51 ], [ "1996-07-01", 107.093 ], [ "1997-04-01", 106.938 ], [ "1998-01-01", 109.022 ], [ "1998-07-01", 109.706 ], [ "1999-04-01", 109.622 ], [ "2000-01-01", 112.828 ], [ "2000-07-01", 112.021 ], [ "2001-04-01", 111.694 ], [ "2001-10-01", 110.498 ], [ "2002-07-01", 108.494 ], [ "2003-04-01", 107.826 ], [ "2003-10-01", 106.88 ], [ "2004-07-01", 107.154 ], [ "2005-04-01", 104.688 ], [ "2005-10-01", 103.982 ], [ "2006-07-01", 103.934 ], [ "2007-04-01", 104.952 ], [ "2007-10-01", 104.334 ], [ "2008-07-01", 104.231 ], [ "2009-04-01", 102.951 ], [ "2009-10-01", 100.997 ], [ "2010-07-01", 99.616 ], [ "2011-04-01", 99.687 ], [ "2011-10-01", 97.84 ], [ "2012-07-01", 98.591 ], [ "2013-04-01", 99.71 ], [ "2013-10-01", 97.562 ], [ "2014-07-01", 97.572 ], [ "2015-01-01", 99.693 ], [ "2015-10-01", 100.174 ], [ "2016-07-01", 99.306 ], [ "2017-01-01", 99.721 ], [ "2017-10-01", 100.128 ], [ "2018-07-01", 99.866 ], [ "2019-01-01", 101.342 ], [ "2019-10-01", 99.588 ], [ "2020-07-01", 100.005 ], [ "2021-01-01", 100.601 ], [ "2021-10-01", 99.573 ], [ "2022-07-01", 98.166 ], [ "2023-01-01", 96.555 ], [ "2023-10-01", 96.224 ], [ "2024-07-01", 96.657 ], [ "2025-01-01", 97.871 ], [ "2025-10-01", 95.727 ], [ "2026-04-01", 93.547 ] ], "key": "labor_share", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "real_wage_prod": { "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "USD/h, heutige Preise", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 32.4, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1964-01-01", "n": 751, "percentile": 98.7, "pressure": 1.3, "zscore": -2.13, "tau": 0.222, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-05-01", "change_10y": 2.49, "change_30y": 6.86, "note": "Nominallohn der Produktions- und Nicht-Aufsichtskr\u00e4fte, mit dem Verbraucherpreisindex auf heutige Kaufkraft gebracht. Diese Gruppe ist rund vier F\u00fcnftel aller Besch\u00e4ftigten.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (AHETPI, deflationiert mit CPIAUCSL)", "spark": [ [ "1964-01-01", 26.8918 ], [ "1964-07-01", 27.2516 ], [ "1965-01-01", 27.4507 ], [ "1965-07-01", 27.7169 ], [ "1966-02-01", 27.9073 ], [ "1966-08-01", 28.0317 ], [ "1967-02-01", 28.3395 ], [ "1967-08-01", 28.612 ], [ "1968-03-01", 28.8179 ], [ "1968-09-01", 29.1093 ], [ "1969-03-01", 29.1327 ], [ "1969-09-01", 29.2445 ], [ "1970-04-01", 29.0455 ], [ "1970-10-01", 29.1423 ], [ "1971-04-01", 29.7125 ], [ "1971-10-01", 29.945 ], [ "1972-05-01", 31.0412 ], [ "1972-11-01", 31.319 ], [ "1973-05-01", 31.0828 ], [ "1973-11-01", 30.7435 ], [ "1974-06-01", 30.1569 ], [ "1974-12-01", 29.4979 ], [ "1975-06-01", 29.3622 ], [ "1975-12-01", 29.1511 ], [ "1976-07-01", 29.5445 ], [ "1977-01-01", 29.8228 ], [ "1977-07-01", 29.8875 ], [ "1978-01-01", 30.0434 ], [ "1978-08-01", 29.8976 ], [ "1979-02-01", 29.7223 ], [ "1979-08-01", 28.901 ], [ "1980-03-01", 27.7967 ], [ "1980-09-01", 27.5691 ], [ "1981-03-01", 27.3838 ], [ "1981-09-01", 27.0254 ], [ "1982-04-01", 27.2206 ], [ "1982-10-01", 27.005 ], [ "1983-04-01", 27.3863 ], [ "1983-10-01", 27.4373 ], [ "1984-05-01", 27.1717 ], [ "1984-11-01", 27.0865 ], [ "1985-05-01", 27.01 ], [ "1985-11-01", 26.8998 ], [ "1986-06-01", 27.1361 ], [ "1986-12-01", 27.0636 ], [ "1987-06-01", 26.713 ], [ "1987-12-01", 26.7172 ], [ "1988-07-01", 26.5408 ], [ "1989-01-01", 26.4987 ], [ "1989-07-01", 26.2775 ], [ "1990-01-01", 26.1552 ], [ "1990-08-01", 25.8967 ], [ "1991-02-01", 25.6523 ], [ "1991-08-01", 25.7284 ], [ "1992-02-01", 25.5973 ], [ "1992-09-01", 25.5448 ], [ "1993-03-01", 25.5242 ], [ "1993-09-01", 25.4545 ], [ "1994-03-01", 25.4531 ], [ "1994-10-01", 25.4399 ], [ "1995-04-01", 25.3447 ], [ "1995-10-01", 25.4759 ], [ "1996-05-01", 25.493 ], [ "1996-11-01", 25.5849 ], [ "1997-05-01", 25.8716 ], [ "1997-11-01", 26.1599 ], [ "1998-06-01", 26.5555 ], [ "1998-12-01", 26.7425 ], [ "1999-06-01", 27.006 ], [ "1999-12-01", 27.0115 ], [ "2000-07-01", 27.0182 ], [ "2001-01-01", 27.0837 ], [ "2001-07-01", 27.2967 ], [ "2002-01-01", 27.6439 ], [ "2002-08-01", 27.6945 ], [ "2003-02-01", 27.6982 ], [ "2003-08-01", 27.8156 ], [ "2004-02-01", 27.6839 ], [ "2004-09-01", 27.6701 ], [ "2005-03-01", 27.5247 ], [ "2005-09-01", 27.1038 ], [ "2006-03-01", 27.565 ], [ "2006-10-01", 27.9075 ], [ "2007-04-01", 27.9144 ], [ "2007-10-01", 27.9691 ], [ "2008-04-01", 27.8768 ], [ "2008-11-01", 28.5889 ], [ "2009-05-01", 28.9502 ], [ "2009-11-01", 28.8025 ], [ "2010-05-01", 29.1167 ], [ "2010-12-01", 29.0286 ], [ "2011-06-01", 28.7354 ], [ "2011-12-01", 28.6641 ], [ "2012-07-01", 28.7548 ], [ "2013-01-01", 28.63 ], [ "2013-07-01", 28.78 ], [ "2014-01-01", 28.8415 ], [ "2014-08-01", 28.9561 ], [ "2015-02-01", 29.4713 ], [ "2015-08-01", 29.5156 ], [ "2016-02-01", 29.9108 ], [ "2016-09-01", 29.8347 ], [ "2017-03-01", 29.8573 ], [ "2017-09-01", 29.9543 ], [ "2018-03-01", 29.9906 ], [ "2018-10-01", 30.1382 ], [ "2019-04-01", 30.4213 ], [ "2019-10-01", 30.7375 ], [ "2020-04-01", 32.6792 ], [ "2020-11-01", 31.813 ], [ "2021-05-01", 31.8449 ], [ "2021-11-01", 31.692 ], [ "2022-05-01", 31.305 ], [ "2022-12-01", 31.429 ], [ "2023-06-01", 31.6267 ], [ "2023-12-01", 31.7677 ], [ "2024-06-01", 31.9689 ], [ "2025-01-01", 32.1272 ], [ "2025-07-01", 32.4271 ], [ "2026-01-01", 32.5488 ], [ "2026-07-01", 32.4 ] ], "key": "real_wage_prod", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "housing_affordability": { "label": "Medianhaus in Jahresgeh\u00e4ltern", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "Jahresgeh\u00e4lter", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 6.13, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1963-01-01", "n": 254, "percentile": 71.7, "pressure": 71.7, "zscore": 0.62, "tau": 0.76, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2025-01-01", "change_10y": -0.73, "change_30y": 0.5, "note": "Preis des Medianhauses geteilt durch das Jahresbruttoeinkommen eines Produktionsarbeiters (Stundenlohn \u00d7 2080 Stunden). Beide Gr\u00f6\u00dfen nominal, das Verh\u00e4ltnis daher preisbereinigt. Turchin behandelt Wohnkosten als Kernkanal der relativen Verelendung.", "source": "Census/BLS \u00fcber FRED (MSPUS, AHETPI)", "spark": [ [ "1963-01-01", 3.4231 ], [ "1963-07-01", 3.4423 ], [ "1964-01-01", 3.5577 ], [ "1964-07-01", 3.5774 ], [ "1965-01-01", 3.7642 ], [ "1965-07-01", 3.6926 ], [ "1966-01-01", 3.7672 ], [ "1966-07-01", 3.7725 ], [ "1967-01-01", 3.829 ], [ "1967-10-01", 3.8096 ], [ "1968-04-01", 4.0037 ], [ "1968-10-01", 3.996 ], [ "1969-04-01", 3.9157 ], [ "1969-10-01", 3.6497 ], [ "1970-04-01", 3.4913 ], [ "1970-10-01", 3.1494 ], [ "1971-04-01", 3.4648 ], [ "1971-10-01", 3.3314 ], [ "1972-07-01", 3.4393 ], [ "1973-01-01", 3.6028 ], [ "1973-07-01", 3.8809 ], [ "1974-01-01", 3.9632 ], [ "1974-07-01", 3.911 ], [ "1975-01-01", 3.9734 ], [ "1975-07-01", 3.9354 ], [ "1976-01-01", 4.1994 ], [ "1976-10-01", 4.2393 ], [ "1977-04-01", 4.3861 ], [ "1977-10-01", 4.4699 ], [ "1978-04-01", 4.5918 ], [ "1978-10-01", 4.7119 ], [ "1979-04-01", 4.8851 ], [ "1979-10-01", 4.6588 ], [ "1980-04-01", 4.5788 ], [ "1980-10-01", 4.5474 ], [ "1981-07-01", 4.4657 ], [ "1982-01-01", 4.1351 ], [ "1982-07-01", 4.2174 ], [ "1983-01-01", 4.3723 ], [ "1983-07-01", 4.527 ], [ "1984-01-01", 4.4864 ], [ "1984-07-01", 4.5761 ], [ "1985-01-01", 4.6234 ], [ "1985-10-01", 4.7475 ], [ "1986-04-01", 4.9864 ], [ "1986-10-01", 5.0974 ], [ "1987-04-01", 5.4748 ], [ "1987-10-01", 5.8141 ], [ "1988-04-01", 5.6501 ], [ "1988-10-01", 5.728 ], [ "1989-04-01", 5.8629 ], [ "1989-10-01", 6.0484 ], [ "1990-07-01", 5.5039 ], [ "1991-01-01", 5.5634 ], [ "1991-07-01", 5.4737 ], [ "1992-01-01", 5.3996 ], [ "1992-07-01", 5.3518 ], [ "1993-01-01", 5.4983 ], [ "1993-07-01", 5.5256 ], [ "1994-01-01", 5.5804 ], [ "1994-10-01", 5.5571 ], [ "1995-04-01", 5.5688 ], [ "1995-10-01", 5.6465 ], [ "1996-04-01", 5.6237 ], [ "1996-10-01", 5.6973 ], [ "1997-04-01", 5.6575 ], [ "1997-10-01", 5.4761 ], [ "1998-04-01", 5.5631 ], [ "1998-10-01", 5.598 ], [ "1999-07-01", 5.6618 ], [ "2000-01-01", 5.7839 ], [ "2000-07-01", 5.7884 ], [ "2001-01-01", 5.7127 ], [ "2001-07-01", 5.6998 ], [ "2002-01-01", 6.1464 ], [ "2002-07-01", 5.7198 ], [ "2003-01-01", 5.8792 ], [ "2003-07-01", 5.9909 ], [ "2004-04-01", 6.7104 ], [ "2004-10-01", 6.9576 ], [ "2005-04-01", 7.0178 ], [ "2005-10-01", 7.1938 ], [ "2006-04-01", 7.1205 ], [ "2006-10-01", 6.9687 ], [ "2007-04-01", 6.7425 ], [ "2007-10-01", 6.5196 ], [ "2008-07-01", 6.0163 ], [ "2009-01-01", 5.4482 ], [ "2009-07-01", 5.5422 ], [ "2010-01-01", 5.676 ], [ "2010-07-01", 5.6586 ], [ "2011-01-01", 5.6434 ], [ "2011-07-01", 5.516 ], [ "2012-01-01", 5.8507 ], [ "2012-07-01", 6.0565 ], [ "2013-04-01", 6.4318 ], [ "2013-10-01", 6.4957 ], [ "2014-04-01", 6.7509 ], [ "2014-10-01", 6.9421 ], [ "2015-04-01", 6.6439 ], [ "2015-10-01", 6.8633 ], [ "2016-04-01", 6.8553 ], [ "2016-10-01", 6.8849 ], [ "2017-07-01", 6.9817 ], [ "2018-01-01", 7.1341 ], [ "2018-07-01", 7.0082 ], [ "2019-01-01", 6.5059 ], [ "2019-07-01", 6.5056 ], [ "2020-01-01", 6.6154 ], [ "2020-07-01", 6.3849 ], [ "2021-01-01", 6.7835 ], [ "2021-07-01", 7.3161 ], [ "2022-04-01", 7.7138 ], [ "2022-10-01", 7.6023 ], [ "2023-04-01", 7.0105 ], [ "2023-10-01", 6.9536 ], [ "2024-04-01", 6.676 ], [ "2024-10-01", 6.6137 ], [ "2025-04-01", 6.4345 ], [ "2025-10-01", 6.253 ], [ "2026-04-01", 6.1263 ] ], "key": "housing_affordability", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "life_expectancy": { "label": "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "Jahre", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 78.89, "as_of": "2024-12-31", "start": "1960-12-31", "n": 65, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 0.0, "zscore": -1.3, "tau": 0.898, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2022-12-31", "change_10y": 0.05, "change_30y": 3.27, "note": "Turchins h\u00e4rtester Verelendungsindikator: Wenn die biologische Wohlstandsmessung kippt, ist die Verschlechterung real und nicht wegdefinierbar. Die USA sind das einzige reiche Land mit einem mehrj\u00e4hrigen R\u00fcckgang vor der Pandemie.", "source": "Weltbank (SP.DYN.LE00.IN)", "spark": [ [ "1960-12-31", 69.7707 ], [ "1961-12-31", 70.2707 ], [ "1962-12-31", 70.1195 ], [ "1963-12-31", 69.9171 ], [ "1964-12-31", 70.1659 ], [ "1965-12-31", 70.2146 ], [ "1966-12-31", 70.2122 ], [ "1967-12-31", 70.561 ], [ "1968-12-31", 69.9512 ], [ "1969-12-31", 70.5073 ], [ "1970-12-31", 70.8073 ], [ "1971-12-31", 71.1073 ], [ "1972-12-31", 71.1561 ], [ "1973-12-31", 71.3561 ], [ "1974-12-31", 71.9561 ], [ "1975-12-31", 72.6049 ], [ "1976-12-31", 72.8561 ], [ "1977-12-31", 73.2561 ], [ "1978-12-31", 73.3561 ], [ "1979-12-31", 73.8049 ], [ "1980-12-31", 73.6098 ], [ "1981-12-31", 74.0098 ], [ "1982-12-31", 74.361 ], [ "1983-12-31", 74.4634 ], [ "1984-12-31", 74.5634 ], [ "1985-12-31", 74.5634 ], [ "1986-12-31", 74.6146 ], [ "1987-12-31", 74.7659 ], [ "1988-12-31", 74.7659 ], [ "1989-12-31", 75.0171 ], [ "1990-12-31", 75.2146 ], [ "1991-12-31", 75.3659 ], [ "1992-12-31", 75.6171 ], [ "1993-12-31", 75.4195 ], [ "1994-12-31", 75.6195 ], [ "1995-12-31", 75.622 ], [ "1996-12-31", 76.0268 ], [ "1997-12-31", 76.4293 ], [ "1998-12-31", 76.5805 ], [ "1999-12-31", 76.5829 ], [ "2000-12-31", 76.6366 ], [ "2001-12-31", 76.8366 ], [ "2002-12-31", 76.9366 ], [ "2003-12-31", 77.0366 ], [ "2004-12-31", 77.4878 ], [ "2005-12-31", 77.4878 ], [ "2006-12-31", 77.6878 ], [ "2007-12-31", 77.9878 ], [ "2008-12-31", 78.039 ], [ "2009-12-31", 78.3902 ], [ "2010-12-31", 78.5415 ], [ "2011-12-31", 78.6415 ], [ "2012-12-31", 78.7415 ], [ "2013-12-31", 78.7415 ], [ "2014-12-31", 78.8415 ], [ "2015-12-31", 78.6902 ], [ "2016-12-31", 78.539 ], [ "2017-12-31", 78.539 ], [ "2018-12-31", 78.639 ], [ "2019-12-31", 78.7878 ], [ "2020-12-31", 76.9805 ], [ "2021-12-31", 76.3293 ], [ "2022-12-31", 77.4341 ], [ "2023-12-31", 78.3854 ], [ "2024-12-31", 78.8902 ] ], "key": "life_expectancy", "group": "mmp", "group_label": "Lage der Mehrheit" }, "top1_income_share": { "label": "Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.4, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 20.73, "as_of": "2024-12-31", "start": "1913-12-31", "n": 112, "percentile": 91.1, "pressure": 91.1, "zscore": 1.3, "tau": -0.126, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2022-12-31", "change_10y": 1.76, "change_30y": 6.71, "note": "Vorsteuer-Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents seit 1913 \u2014 die Reihe, an der Piketty und Turchin ihre Zyklen ablesen. Das Vorkrisenmaximum von 1928 ist der historische Bezugspunkt.", "source": "World Inequality Database \u00fcber Our World in Data", "spark": [ [ "1913-12-31", 20.43 ], [ "1914-12-31", 20.91 ], [ "1915-12-31", 20.29 ], [ "1916-12-31", 21.36 ], [ "1917-12-31", 21.31 ], [ "1918-12-31", 19.68 ], [ "1919-12-31", 21.64 ], [ "1920-12-31", 18.77 ], [ "1921-12-31", 19.15 ], [ "1922-12-31", 18.58 ], [ "1923-12-31", 17.7 ], [ "1924-12-31", 18.47 ], [ "1925-12-31", 20.68 ], [ "1926-12-31", 21.94 ], [ "1927-12-31", 21.26 ], [ "1928-12-31", 22.29 ], [ "1929-12-31", 22.18 ], [ "1930-12-31", 19.06 ], [ "1931-12-31", 16.76 ], [ "1932-12-31", 16.51 ], [ "1933-12-31", 17.51 ], [ "1934-12-31", 19.06 ], [ "1935-12-31", 19.33 ], [ "1936-12-31", 20.94 ], [ "1937-12-31", 20.67 ], [ "1938-12-31", 18.64 ], [ "1939-12-31", 19.57 ], [ "1940-12-31", 20.48 ], [ "1941-12-31", 21.58 ], [ "1942-12-31", 20.59 ], [ "1943-12-31", 18.59 ], [ "1944-12-31", 15.35 ], [ "1945-12-31", 14.25 ], [ "1946-12-31", 14.28 ], [ "1947-12-31", 14.97 ], [ "1948-12-31", 16.31 ], [ "1949-12-31", 15.72 ], [ "1950-12-31", 16.39 ], [ "1951-12-31", 16.0 ], [ "1952-12-31", 14.97 ], [ "1953-12-31", 14.01 ], [ "1954-12-31", 13.95 ], [ "1955-12-31", 14.61 ], [ "1956-12-31", 13.84 ], [ "1957-12-31", 13.53 ], [ "1958-12-31", 12.68 ], [ "1959-12-31", 13.21 ], [ "1960-12-31", 12.43 ], [ "1961-12-31", 12.53 ], [ "1962-12-31", 12.84 ], [ "1963-12-31", 12.98 ], [ "1964-12-31", 13.11 ], [ "1965-12-31", 13.03 ], [ "1966-12-31", 12.97 ], [ "1967-12-31", 12.37 ], [ "1968-12-31", 12.61 ], [ "1969-12-31", 11.6 ], [ "1970-12-31", 10.7 ], [ "1971-12-31", 11.05 ], [ "1972-12-31", 11.08 ], [ "1973-12-31", 10.88 ], [ "1974-12-31", 10.37 ], [ "1975-12-31", 10.43 ], [ "1976-12-31", 10.36 ], [ "1977-12-31", 10.58 ], [ "1978-12-31", 10.35 ], [ "1979-12-31", 10.86 ], [ "1980-12-31", 10.42 ], [ "1981-12-31", 10.67 ], [ "1982-12-31", 10.99 ], [ "1983-12-31", 11.5 ], [ "1984-12-31", 12.15 ], [ "1985-12-31", 12.27 ], [ "1986-12-31", 11.98 ], [ "1987-12-31", 13.24 ], [ "1988-12-31", 15.21 ], [ "1989-12-31", 14.69 ], [ "1990-12-31", 14.71 ], [ "1991-12-31", 13.65 ], [ "1992-12-31", 14.68 ], [ "1993-12-31", 14.15 ], [ "1994-12-31", 14.02 ], [ "1995-12-31", 14.52 ], [ "1996-12-31", 15.25 ], [ "1997-12-31", 16.0 ], [ "1998-12-31", 16.32 ], [ "1999-12-31", 16.76 ], [ "2000-12-31", 17.34 ], [ "2001-12-31", 16.59 ], [ "2002-12-31", 16.1 ], [ "2003-12-31", 16.32 ], [ "2004-12-31", 17.06 ], [ "2005-12-31", 18.06 ], [ "2006-12-31", 18.52 ], [ "2007-12-31", 18.38 ], [ "2008-12-31", 17.93 ], [ "2009-12-31", 16.7 ], [ "2010-12-31", 17.89 ], [ "2011-12-31", 18.08 ], [ "2012-12-31", 19.49 ], [ "2013-12-31", 18.46 ], [ "2014-12-31", 18.97 ], [ "2015-12-31", 18.89 ], [ "2016-12-31", 18.66 ], [ "2017-12-31", 19.05 ], [ "2018-12-31", 19.24 ], [ "2019-12-31", 19.04 ], [ "2020-12-31", 18.17 ], [ "2021-12-31", 19.88 ], [ "2022-12-31", 20.73 ], [ "2023-12-31", 20.73 ], [ "2024-12-31", 20.73 ] ], "key": "top1_income_share", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "wealth_top1": { "label": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil des obersten Prozents", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 31.6, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1989-07-01", "n": 147, "percentile": 99.3, "pressure": 99.3, "zscore": 1.48, "tau": 0.768, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 1.0, "change_30y": 4.3, "note": "", "source": "Fed Distributional Financial Accounts \u00fcber FRED (WFRBST01134)", "spark": [ [ "1989-07-01", 22.8 ], [ "1989-10-01", 23.0 ], [ "1990-01-01", 22.7 ], [ "1990-04-01", 22.9 ], [ "1990-07-01", 22.5 ], [ "1991-01-01", 23.2 ], [ "1991-04-01", 23.1 ], [ "1991-07-01", 23.1 ], [ "1991-10-01", 23.5 ], [ "1992-04-01", 23.2 ], [ "1992-07-01", 23.0 ], [ "1992-10-01", 23.5 ], [ "1993-01-01", 24.0 ], [ "1993-04-01", 24.1 ], [ "1993-10-01", 24.9 ], [ "1994-01-01", 25.1 ], [ "1994-04-01", 25.3 ], [ "1994-07-01", 25.6 ], [ "1995-01-01", 26.2 ], [ "1995-04-01", 26.6 ], [ "1995-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "1995-10-01", 27.4 ], [ "1996-01-01", 27.3 ], [ "1996-07-01", 27.1 ], [ "1996-10-01", 27.2 ], [ "1997-01-01", 26.9 ], [ "1997-04-01", 27.3 ], [ "1997-10-01", 27.5 ], [ "1998-01-01", 27.8 ], [ "1998-04-01", 27.8 ], [ "1998-07-01", 27.1 ], [ "1998-10-01", 27.7 ], [ "1999-04-01", 27.7 ], [ "1999-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "1999-10-01", 27.9 ], [ "2000-01-01", 27.9 ], [ "2000-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "2000-10-01", 26.8 ], [ "2001-01-01", 26.1 ], [ "2001-04-01", 26.2 ], [ "2001-10-01", 25.9 ], [ "2002-01-01", 25.8 ], [ "2002-04-01", 25.6 ], [ "2002-07-01", 25.0 ], [ "2002-10-01", 25.1 ], [ "2003-04-01", 25.4 ], [ "2003-07-01", 25.5 ], [ "2003-10-01", 26.0 ], [ "2004-01-01", 26.6 ], [ "2004-07-01", 26.8 ], [ "2004-10-01", 27.0 ], [ "2005-01-01", 26.9 ], [ "2005-04-01", 27.2 ], [ "2005-07-01", 27.3 ], [ "2006-01-01", 27.9 ], [ "2006-04-01", 27.8 ], [ "2006-07-01", 28.0 ], [ "2006-10-01", 28.2 ], [ "2007-04-01", 28.7 ], [ "2007-07-01", 29.0 ], [ "2007-10-01", 28.8 ], [ "2008-01-01", 28.5 ], [ "2008-04-01", 28.4 ], [ "2008-10-01", 27.7 ], [ "2009-01-01", 27.4 ], [ "2009-04-01", 27.6 ], [ "2009-07-01", 28.1 ], [ "2010-01-01", 28.3 ], [ "2010-04-01", 28.1 ], [ "2010-07-01", 28.4 ], [ "2010-10-01", 28.8 ], [ "2011-01-01", 29.1 ], [ "2011-07-01", 28.7 ], [ "2011-10-01", 29.0 ], [ "2012-01-01", 29.4 ], [ "2012-04-01", 29.4 ], [ "2012-10-01", 29.6 ], [ "2013-01-01", 29.8 ], [ "2013-04-01", 29.6 ], [ "2013-07-01", 29.7 ], [ "2014-01-01", 30.0 ], [ "2014-04-01", 30.4 ], [ "2014-07-01", 30.4 ], [ "2014-10-01", 30.6 ], [ "2015-01-01", 30.6 ], [ "2015-07-01", 30.5 ], [ "2015-10-01", 30.6 ], [ "2016-01-01", 30.6 ], [ "2016-04-01", 30.8 ], [ "2016-10-01", 30.7 ], [ "2017-01-01", 30.7 ], [ "2017-04-01", 30.7 ], [ "2017-07-01", 30.7 ], [ "2017-10-01", 30.8 ], [ "2018-04-01", 30.5 ], [ "2018-07-01", 30.7 ], [ "2018-10-01", 30.0 ], [ "2019-01-01", 30.6 ], [ "2019-07-01", 30.4 ], [ "2019-10-01", 30.6 ], [ "2020-01-01", 29.2 ], [ "2020-04-01", 29.9 ], [ "2020-07-01", 30.0 ], [ "2021-01-01", 30.7 ], [ "2021-04-01", 30.8 ], [ "2021-07-01", 30.8 ], [ "2021-10-01", 30.9 ], [ "2022-04-01", 29.4 ], [ "2022-07-01", 29.5 ], [ "2022-10-01", 29.9 ], [ "2023-01-01", 30.1 ], [ "2023-04-01", 30.1 ], [ "2023-10-01", 30.3 ], [ "2024-01-01", 30.6 ], [ "2024-04-01", 30.5 ], [ "2024-07-01", 30.9 ], [ "2025-01-01", 30.9 ], [ "2025-04-01", 31.2 ], [ "2025-07-01", 31.6 ], [ "2025-10-01", 31.8 ], [ "2026-01-01", 31.6 ] ], "key": "wealth_top1", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "label": "Verm\u00f6gen oberstes Prozent \u00f7 untere H\u00e4lfte", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "-fach", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 12.9, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1989-07-01", "n": 147, "percentile": 59.2, "pressure": 59.2, "zscore": -0.34, "tau": 0.517, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2021-04-01", "change_10y": -12.78, "change_30y": 5.04, "note": "Wie oft das Verm\u00f6gen des obersten Prozents in das gesamte Verm\u00f6gen der unteren 160 Millionen Menschen passt.", "source": "Fed Distributional Financial Accounts \u00fcber FRED (WFRBLT01026, WFRBLB50107)", "spark": [ [ "1989-07-01", 6.4936 ], [ "1989-10-01", 6.7296 ], [ "1990-01-01", 6.476 ], [ "1990-04-01", 6.8076 ], [ "1990-07-01", 6.3601 ], [ "1991-01-01", 6.5447 ], [ "1991-04-01", 6.5224 ], [ "1991-07-01", 6.2024 ], [ "1991-10-01", 6.3259 ], [ "1992-04-01", 6.0265 ], [ "1992-07-01", 5.659 ], [ "1992-10-01", 5.8507 ], [ "1993-01-01", 6.3541 ], [ "1993-04-01", 6.3559 ], [ "1993-10-01", 6.7356 ], [ "1994-01-01", 7.1157 ], [ "1994-04-01", 7.3663 ], [ "1994-07-01", 7.3411 ], [ "1995-01-01", 7.5425 ], [ "1995-04-01", 7.421 ], [ "1995-07-01", 7.4391 ], [ "1995-10-01", 7.7051 ], [ "1996-01-01", 7.8552 ], [ "1996-07-01", 7.8474 ], [ "1996-10-01", 8.0755 ], [ "1997-01-01", 7.9441 ], [ "1997-04-01", 8.0876 ], [ "1997-10-01", 8.3908 ], [ "1998-01-01", 8.3955 ], [ "1998-04-01", 8.6111 ], [ "1998-07-01", 7.8475 ], [ "1998-10-01", 8.4969 ], [ "1999-04-01", 8.6154 ], [ "1999-07-01", 8.4073 ], [ "1999-10-01", 8.7443 ], [ "2000-01-01", 8.6652 ], [ "2000-07-01", 8.4096 ], [ "2000-10-01", 8.4359 ], [ "2001-01-01", 8.1719 ], [ "2001-04-01", 8.4585 ], [ "2001-10-01", 8.6887 ], [ "2002-01-01", 8.698 ], [ "2002-04-01", 8.7408 ], [ "2002-07-01", 8.3912 ], [ "2002-10-01", 8.5345 ], [ "2003-04-01", 9.6434 ], [ "2003-07-01", 9.6471 ], [ "2003-10-01", 10.0433 ], [ "2004-01-01", 10.5902 ], [ "2004-07-01", 10.8147 ], [ "2004-10-01", 11.0344 ], [ "2005-01-01", 10.9862 ], [ "2005-04-01", 11.2413 ], [ "2005-07-01", 11.0217 ], [ "2006-01-01", 11.6154 ], [ "2006-04-01", 11.5606 ], [ "2006-07-01", 11.8606 ], [ "2006-10-01", 12.4289 ], [ "2007-04-01", 13.8147 ], [ "2007-07-01", 14.5608 ], [ "2007-10-01", 17.1183 ], [ "2008-01-01", 19.5933 ], [ "2008-04-01", 19.2945 ], [ "2008-10-01", 28.1311 ], [ "2009-01-01", 37.9416 ], [ "2009-04-01", 37.3614 ], [ "2009-07-01", 42.6137 ], [ "2010-01-01", 52.3081 ], [ "2010-04-01", 55.4907 ], [ "2010-07-01", 52.5474 ], [ "2010-10-01", 72.9427 ], [ "2011-01-01", 73.0259 ], [ "2011-07-01", 64.542 ], [ "2011-10-01", 69.9057 ], [ "2012-01-01", 66.834 ], [ "2012-04-01", 53.1223 ], [ "2012-10-01", 42.2483 ], [ "2013-01-01", 45.677 ], [ "2013-04-01", 38.2214 ], [ "2013-07-01", 33.1362 ], [ "2014-01-01", 33.3152 ], [ "2014-04-01", 30.3118 ], [ "2014-07-01", 29.4497 ], [ "2014-10-01", 30.2359 ], [ "2015-01-01", 29.2404 ], [ "2015-07-01", 28.0626 ], [ "2015-10-01", 26.0456 ], [ "2016-01-01", 25.6811 ], [ "2016-04-01", 26.1821 ], [ "2016-10-01", 24.0174 ], [ "2017-01-01", 23.247 ], [ "2017-04-01", 22.3559 ], [ "2017-07-01", 21.8792 ], [ "2017-10-01", 21.6595 ], [ "2018-04-01", 19.7154 ], [ "2018-07-01", 19.7836 ], [ "2018-10-01", 19.2162 ], [ "2019-01-01", 19.5583 ], [ "2019-07-01", 17.9797 ], [ "2019-10-01", 17.8861 ], [ "2020-01-01", 15.8938 ], [ "2020-04-01", 14.9327 ], [ "2020-07-01", 14.3512 ], [ "2021-01-01", 13.3331 ], [ "2021-04-01", 13.217 ], [ "2021-07-01", 12.8771 ], [ "2021-10-01", 12.6761 ], [ "2022-04-01", 10.9472 ], [ "2022-07-01", 11.0211 ], [ "2022-10-01", 11.6226 ], [ "2023-01-01", 11.6042 ], [ "2023-04-01", 11.7644 ], [ "2023-10-01", 12.1714 ], [ "2024-01-01", 12.261 ], [ "2024-04-01", 12.3694 ], [ "2024-07-01", 12.7651 ], [ "2025-01-01", 12.5072 ], [ "2025-04-01", 12.6268 ], [ "2025-07-01", 12.9049 ], [ "2025-10-01", 12.968 ], [ "2026-01-01", 12.8993 ] ], "key": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "tuition_real": { "label": "Reale Studiengeb\u00fchren", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "Index 1978=100", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 274.7, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1977-12-01", "n": 583, "percentile": 77.0, "pressure": 77.0, "zscore": 1.02, "tau": 0.886, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2025-06-01", "change_10y": -18.9, "change_30y": 106.5, "note": "Preis des Elite-Eintrittstickets, bereinigt um die allgemeine Inflation. Turchins Mechanismus der Eliten\u00fcberproduktion l\u00e4uft genau hier\u00fcber: Je teurer die Qualifikation, desto h\u00e4rter der Verdr\u00e4ngungswettbewerb um die Positionen, die sie rechtfertigen soll.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (CUUR0000SEEB \u00f7 CPIAUCSL)", "spark": [ [ "1977-12-01", 92.7769 ], [ "1978-04-01", 91.2363 ], [ "1978-09-01", 94.1353 ], [ "1979-02-01", 90.7514 ], [ "1979-07-01", 86.3014 ], [ "1979-12-01", 88.8166 ], [ "1980-05-01", 83.9657 ], [ "1980-10-01", 90.3188 ], [ "1981-02-01", 87.1591 ], [ "1981-07-01", 84.3716 ], [ "1981-12-01", 91.6047 ], [ "1982-05-01", 91.3452 ], [ "1982-10-01", 98.5729 ], [ "1983-03-01", 98.6748 ], [ "1983-08-01", 97.2028 ], [ "1983-12-01", 104.3393 ], [ "1984-05-01", 102.9952 ], [ "1984-10-01", 110.7517 ], [ "1985-03-01", 109.0824 ], [ "1985-08-01", 108.3411 ], [ "1986-01-01", 114.9227 ], [ "1986-06-01", 115.5393 ], [ "1986-10-01", 123.5935 ], [ "1987-03-01", 121.7469 ], [ "1987-08-01", 120.8224 ], [ "1988-01-01", 126.4655 ], [ "1988-06-01", 125.339 ], [ "1988-11-01", 131.0058 ], [ "1989-04-01", 129.0008 ], [ "1989-08-01", 130.1205 ], [ "1990-01-01", 133.9608 ], [ "1990-06-01", 132.1786 ], [ "1990-11-01", 137.098 ], [ "1991-04-01", 137.6018 ], [ "1991-09-01", 146.4964 ], [ "1992-02-01", 145.8874 ], [ "1992-06-01", 145.6817 ], [ "1992-11-01", 153.3427 ], [ "1993-04-01", 153.1989 ], [ "1993-09-01", 160.6207 ], [ "1994-02-01", 160.0545 ], [ "1994-07-01", 159.5687 ], [ "1994-12-01", 165.0899 ], [ "1995-04-01", 164.0975 ], [ "1995-09-01", 170.5421 ], [ "1996-02-01", 169.3548 ], [ "1996-07-01", 168.2166 ], [ "1996-12-01", 172.4073 ], [ "1997-05-01", 172.5453 ], [ "1997-10-01", 178.452 ], [ "1998-02-01", 178.5185 ], [ "1998-07-01", 178.3701 ], [ "1998-12-01", 183.5158 ], [ "1999-05-01", 183.1928 ], [ "1999-10-01", 187.9239 ], [ "2000-03-01", 186.1404 ], [ "2000-08-01", 188.4192 ], [ "2000-12-01", 190.5498 ], [ "2001-05-01", 188.9453 ], [ "2001-10-01", 197.9167 ], [ "2002-03-01", 198.3754 ], [ "2002-08-01", 202.5485 ], [ "2003-01-01", 205.6407 ], [ "2003-06-01", 207.2092 ], [ "2003-10-01", 216.9281 ], [ "2004-03-01", 216.3014 ], [ "2004-08-01", 221.0888 ], [ "2005-01-01", 224.2693 ], [ "2005-06-01", 224.2643 ], [ "2005-11-01", 229.7325 ], [ "2006-04-01", 228.0518 ], [ "2006-08-01", 232.2866 ], [ "2007-01-01", 237.7665 ], [ "2007-06-01", 234.4538 ], [ "2007-11-01", 241.7091 ], [ "2008-04-01", 239.2644 ], [ "2008-09-01", 244.9239 ], [ "2009-02-01", 253.3452 ], [ "2009-06-01", 251.9293 ], [ "2009-11-01", 258.994 ], [ "2010-04-01", 260.2121 ], [ "2010-09-01", 268.1347 ], [ "2011-02-01", 264.4377 ], [ "2011-07-01", 262.8892 ], [ "2011-12-01", 269.1774 ], [ "2012-04-01", 267.0605 ], [ "2012-09-01", 273.8766 ], [ "2013-02-01", 272.9674 ], [ "2013-07-01", 274.8343 ], [ "2013-12-01", 279.1125 ], [ "2014-05-01", 277.8155 ], [ "2014-10-01", 284.6595 ], [ "2015-02-01", 288.1203 ], [ "2015-07-01", 288.4706 ], [ "2015-12-01", 294.6867 ], [ "2016-05-01", 293.2342 ], [ "2016-10-01", 297.087 ], [ "2017-03-01", 294.327 ], [ "2017-08-01", 296.2726 ], [ "2017-12-01", 296.4331 ], [ "2018-05-01", 291.9786 ], [ "2018-10-01", 298.2158 ], [ "2019-03-01", 297.6089 ], [ "2019-08-01", 299.0697 ], [ "2020-01-01", 298.1665 ], [ "2020-06-01", 301.7569 ], [ "2020-10-01", 300.6511 ], [ "2021-03-01", 294.4618 ], [ "2021-08-01", 290.133 ], [ "2022-01-01", 282.6625 ], [ "2022-06-01", 273.0601 ], [ "2022-11-01", 275.7355 ], [ "2023-04-01", 274.095 ], [ "2023-08-01", 274.7025 ], [ "2024-01-01", 274.0502 ], [ "2024-06-01", 273.7481 ], [ "2024-11-01", 277.8661 ], [ "2025-04-01", 275.4347 ], [ "2025-09-01", 278.861 ], [ "2026-03-01", 274.6519 ], [ "2026-07-01", 274.696 ] ], "key": "tuition_real", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "elite_squeeze": { "label": "Verm\u00f6gensanteil der oberen Mittelschicht (90.\u201399. Perzentil)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 36.3, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1989-07-01", "n": 147, "percentile": 31.3, "pressure": 68.7, "zscore": 0.59, "tau": 0.348, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2003-01-01", "change_10y": -3.0, "change_30y": 2.1, "note": "Die eigentliche Eliten\u00fcberproduktion zeigt sich nicht oben, sondern eine Etage darunter: Wenn die Gruppe der Elitenanw\u00e4rter gegen\u00fcber dem obersten Prozent zur\u00fcckf\u00e4llt, w\u00e4chst genau die frustrierte Schicht, aus der Turchins Gegeneliten sich rekrutieren.", "source": "Fed Distributional Financial Accounts \u00fcber FRED (WFRBSN09161)", "spark": [ [ "1989-07-01", 38.0 ], [ "1989-10-01", 37.9 ], [ "1990-01-01", 37.7 ], [ "1990-04-01", 37.6 ], [ "1990-07-01", 37.4 ], [ "1991-01-01", 37.1 ], [ "1991-04-01", 36.9 ], [ "1991-07-01", 36.6 ], [ "1991-10-01", 36.5 ], [ "1992-04-01", 36.3 ], [ "1992-07-01", 36.2 ], [ "1992-10-01", 36.1 ], [ "1993-01-01", 36.2 ], [ "1993-04-01", 36.0 ], [ "1993-10-01", 35.6 ], [ "1994-01-01", 35.5 ], [ "1994-04-01", 35.3 ], [ "1994-07-01", 35.1 ], [ "1995-01-01", 34.7 ], [ "1995-04-01", 34.3 ], [ "1995-07-01", 33.9 ], [ "1995-10-01", 34.1 ], [ "1996-01-01", 34.2 ], [ "1996-07-01", 34.3 ], [ "1996-10-01", 34.5 ], [ "1997-01-01", 34.6 ], [ "1997-04-01", 34.8 ], [ "1997-10-01", 35.0 ], [ "1998-01-01", 35.1 ], [ "1998-04-01", 35.2 ], [ "1998-07-01", 35.1 ], [ "1998-10-01", 35.4 ], [ "1999-04-01", 35.6 ], [ "1999-07-01", 35.6 ], [ "1999-10-01", 35.9 ], [ "2000-01-01", 35.9 ], [ "2000-07-01", 35.8 ], [ "2000-10-01", 35.8 ], [ "2001-01-01", 35.7 ], [ "2001-04-01", 35.8 ], [ "2001-10-01", 35.9 ], [ "2002-01-01", 36.0 ], [ "2002-04-01", 36.0 ], [ "2002-07-01", 36.0 ], [ "2002-10-01", 36.0 ], [ "2003-04-01", 36.5 ], [ "2003-07-01", 36.5 ], [ "2003-10-01", 36.6 ], [ "2004-01-01", 36.5 ], [ "2004-07-01", 36.5 ], [ "2004-10-01", 36.6 ], [ "2005-01-01", 36.7 ], [ "2005-04-01", 36.9 ], [ "2005-07-01", 36.9 ], [ "2006-01-01", 37.1 ], [ "2006-04-01", 37.2 ], [ "2006-07-01", 37.3 ], [ "2006-10-01", 37.4 ], [ "2007-04-01", 37.8 ], [ "2007-07-01", 38.0 ], [ "2007-10-01", 38.3 ], [ "2008-01-01", 38.5 ], [ "2008-04-01", 38.6 ], [ "2008-10-01", 38.8 ], [ "2009-01-01", 38.9 ], [ "2009-04-01", 39.2 ], [ "2009-07-01", 39.4 ], [ "2010-01-01", 39.7 ], [ "2010-04-01", 39.9 ], [ "2010-07-01", 40.0 ], [ "2010-10-01", 40.1 ], [ "2011-01-01", 40.0 ], [ "2011-07-01", 39.8 ], [ "2011-10-01", 39.7 ], [ "2012-01-01", 39.7 ], [ "2012-04-01", 39.6 ], [ "2012-10-01", 39.4 ], [ "2013-01-01", 39.4 ], [ "2013-04-01", 39.4 ], [ "2013-07-01", 39.3 ], [ "2014-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2014-04-01", 39.3 ], [ "2014-07-01", 39.3 ], [ "2014-10-01", 39.3 ], [ "2015-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2015-07-01", 39.4 ], [ "2015-10-01", 39.3 ], [ "2016-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2016-04-01", 39.3 ], [ "2016-10-01", 39.2 ], [ "2017-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2017-04-01", 39.3 ], [ "2017-07-01", 39.3 ], [ "2017-10-01", 39.3 ], [ "2018-04-01", 39.4 ], [ "2018-07-01", 39.4 ], [ "2018-10-01", 39.6 ], [ "2019-01-01", 39.7 ], [ "2019-07-01", 39.7 ], [ "2019-10-01", 39.4 ], [ "2020-01-01", 39.3 ], [ "2020-04-01", 38.9 ], [ "2020-07-01", 38.6 ], [ "2021-01-01", 37.9 ], [ "2021-04-01", 37.6 ], [ "2021-07-01", 37.3 ], [ "2021-10-01", 37.2 ], [ "2022-04-01", 36.5 ], [ "2022-07-01", 36.4 ], [ "2022-10-01", 36.5 ], [ "2023-01-01", 36.6 ], [ "2023-04-01", 36.4 ], [ "2023-10-01", 36.5 ], [ "2024-01-01", 36.5 ], [ "2024-04-01", 36.4 ], [ "2024-07-01", 36.5 ], [ "2025-01-01", 36.4 ], [ "2025-04-01", 36.4 ], [ "2025-07-01", 36.4 ], [ "2025-10-01", 36.4 ], [ "2026-01-01", 36.3 ] ], "key": "elite_squeeze", "group": "emp", "group_label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion" }, "debt_gdp": { "label": "Staatsschulden \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 122.6, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1966-01-01", "n": 241, "percentile": 98.3, "pressure": 98.3, "zscore": 1.99, "tau": 0.756, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2021-01-01", "change_10y": 18.6, "change_30y": 57.6, "note": "", "source": "OMB/BEA \u00fcber FRED (GFDEGDQ188S)", "spark": [ [ "1966-01-01", 40.34 ], [ "1966-07-01", 39.6209 ], [ "1967-01-01", 39.2038 ], [ "1967-07-01", 38.8214 ], [ "1968-01-01", 38.4295 ], [ "1968-07-01", 37.309 ], [ "1969-01-01", 36.1958 ], [ "1969-07-01", 35.0195 ], [ "1970-01-01", 35.3888 ], [ "1970-07-01", 34.8672 ], [ "1971-01-01", 34.5035 ], [ "1971-07-01", 35.0069 ], [ "1972-01-01", 34.7262 ], [ "1972-07-01", 33.6245 ], [ "1973-01-01", 33.2929 ], [ "1973-07-01", 32.1245 ], [ "1974-01-01", 31.7645 ], [ "1974-07-01", 30.8627 ], [ "1975-01-01", 31.536 ], [ "1975-07-01", 32.3804 ], [ "1976-01-01", 32.9851 ], [ "1976-07-01", 33.6433 ], [ "1977-01-01", 33.6514 ], [ "1977-07-01", 32.9879 ], [ "1978-01-01", 33.5012 ], [ "1978-07-01", 32.2141 ], [ "1979-01-01", 31.536 ], [ "1979-07-01", 30.984 ], [ "1980-01-01", 30.9498 ], [ "1980-07-01", 31.7769 ], [ "1981-01-01", 30.8728 ], [ "1981-07-01", 30.6033 ], [ "1982-01-01", 32.413 ], [ "1982-07-01", 33.9253 ], [ "1983-01-01", 35.8291 ], [ "1983-07-01", 37.3311 ], [ "1984-01-01", 37.4545 ], [ "1984-07-01", 38.4959 ], [ "1985-01-01", 40.4412 ], [ "1985-07-01", 41.5591 ], [ "1986-01-01", 44.0742 ], [ "1986-07-01", 46.1254 ], [ "1987-01-01", 47.5784 ], [ "1987-07-01", 48.1165 ], [ "1988-01-01", 49.0315 ], [ "1988-07-01", 49.2573 ], [ "1989-01-01", 49.7328 ], [ "1989-07-01", 50.1712 ], [ "1990-01-01", 51.9686 ], [ "1990-07-01", 53.7531 ], [ "1991-01-01", 57.4165 ], [ "1991-07-01", 59.0612 ], [ "1992-01-01", 60.9968 ], [ "1992-07-01", 61.898 ], [ "1993-01-01", 62.8666 ], [ "1993-07-01", 64.1009 ], [ "1994-01-01", 64.3071 ], [ "1994-07-01", 64.0118 ], [ "1995-01-01", 64.6627 ], [ "1995-07-01", 64.7391 ], [ "1996-01-01", 65.0417 ], [ "1996-07-01", 64.2547 ], [ "1997-01-01", 64.3443 ], [ "1997-07-01", 62.4871 ], [ "1998-01-01", 62.5099 ], [ "1998-07-01", 60.5869 ], [ "1999-01-01", 60.0489 ], [ "1999-07-01", 58.3926 ], [ "2000-01-01", 57.7213 ], [ "2000-07-01", 54.9921 ], [ "2001-01-01", 55.1443 ], [ "2001-07-01", 54.7976 ], [ "2002-01-01", 55.6965 ], [ "2002-07-01", 56.7026 ], [ "2003-01-01", 57.8191 ], [ "2003-07-01", 58.6454 ], [ "2004-01-01", 59.8071 ], [ "2004-07-01", 59.9664 ], [ "2005-01-01", 60.913 ], [ "2005-07-01", 60.3586 ], [ "2006-01-01", 61.5564 ], [ "2006-07-01", 61.3328 ], [ "2007-01-01", 62.253 ], [ "2007-07-01", 61.8483 ], [ "2008-01-01", 64.1728 ], [ "2008-07-01", 67.2845 ], [ "2009-01-01", 77.105 ], [ "2009-07-01", 82.4273 ], [ "2010-01-01", 86.5118 ], [ "2010-07-01", 89.5653 ], [ "2011-01-01", 92.9561 ], [ "2011-07-01", 94.521 ], [ "2012-01-01", 97.1231 ], [ "2012-07-01", 98.4479 ], [ "2013-01-01", 100.74 ], [ "2013-07-01", 98.728 ], [ "2014-01-01", 102.3462 ], [ "2014-07-01", 100.1115 ], [ "2015-01-01", 100.4901 ], [ "2015-07-01", 98.6359 ], [ "2016-01-01", 103.989 ], [ "2016-07-01", 103.6035 ], [ "2017-01-01", 102.9374 ], [ "2017-07-01", 102.8046 ], [ "2018-01-01", 103.7439 ], [ "2018-07-01", 103.4489 ], [ "2019-01-01", 104.3402 ], [ "2019-07-01", 104.6149 ], [ "2020-01-01", 106.7701 ], [ "2020-07-01", 124.1469 ], [ "2021-01-01", 124.0375 ], [ "2021-07-01", 118.5409 ], [ "2022-01-01", 120.3982 ], [ "2022-07-01", 117.4383 ], [ "2023-01-01", 115.5861 ], [ "2023-07-01", 118.139 ], [ "2024-01-01", 120.4763 ], [ "2024-07-01", 120.1717 ], [ "2025-01-01", 120.5452 ], [ "2025-07-01", 121.0288 ], [ "2026-01-01", 122.5939 ] ], "key": "debt_gdp", "group": "sfd", "group_label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise" }, "interest_burden": { "label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.5, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 21.2, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 78.3, "pressure": 78.3, "zscore": 0.77, "tau": 0.182, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2024-10-01", "change_10y": 8.1, "change_30y": -2.1, "note": "Der aussagekr\u00e4ftigste Fiskalindikator im Set und Turchins direktes Ma\u00df f\u00fcr Staatsfinanzkrise: Nicht die Schuldenh\u00f6he entscheidet, sondern welcher Anteil der laufenden Einnahmen f\u00fcr Zinsen gebunden ist, bevor der Staat irgendetwas tun kann.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (A091RC1Q027SBEA \u00f7 FGRECPT)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 12.3315 ], [ "1947-07-01", 12.8663 ], [ "1948-04-01", 12.9709 ], [ "1948-10-01", 13.7271 ], [ "1949-07-01", 15.7619 ], [ "1950-04-01", 13.4663 ], [ "1950-10-01", 11.2008 ], [ "1951-07-01", 10.7616 ], [ "1952-04-01", 10.4245 ], [ "1952-10-01", 10.19 ], [ "1953-07-01", 10.4697 ], [ "1954-04-01", 12.3377 ], [ "1954-10-01", 12.0465 ], [ "1955-07-01", 11.0717 ], [ "1956-04-01", 11.4435 ], [ "1956-10-01", 12.1606 ], [ "1957-07-01", 12.4972 ], [ "1958-04-01", 13.3849 ], [ "1958-10-01", 12.9368 ], [ "1959-07-01", 13.3019 ], [ "1960-04-01", 14.8795 ], [ "1960-10-01", 14.979 ], [ "1961-07-01", 14.6214 ], [ "1962-01-01", 14.4383 ], [ "1962-10-01", 14.7831 ], [ "1963-07-01", 14.6356 ], [ "1964-01-01", 15.2224 ], [ "1964-10-01", 15.8129 ], [ "1965-07-01", 15.6581 ], [ "1966-01-01", 14.7316 ], [ "1966-10-01", 14.8991 ], [ "1967-07-01", 14.8812 ], [ "1968-01-01", 14.6641 ], [ "1968-10-01", 14.0228 ], [ "1969-07-01", 14.5588 ], [ "1970-01-01", 16.9117 ], [ "1970-10-01", 18.9456 ], [ "1971-07-01", 18.5549 ], [ "1972-01-01", 17.1421 ], [ "1972-10-01", 17.138 ], [ "1973-07-01", 17.7089 ], [ "1974-01-01", 17.3659 ], [ "1974-10-01", 17.4243 ], [ "1975-04-01", 21.026 ], [ "1976-01-01", 18.2241 ], [ "1976-10-01", 18.3952 ], [ "1977-04-01", 17.6529 ], [ "1978-01-01", 19.1243 ], [ "1978-10-01", 18.456 ], [ "1979-04-01", 18.717 ], [ "1980-01-01", 19.7514 ], [ "1980-10-01", 19.8902 ], [ "1981-04-01", 20.9954 ], [ "1982-01-01", 23.7959 ], [ "1982-10-01", 25.408 ], [ "1983-04-01", 25.1251 ], [ "1984-01-01", 26.3908 ], [ "1984-10-01", 28.1033 ], [ "1985-04-01", 28.599 ], [ "1986-01-01", 27.788 ], [ "1986-10-01", 26.6408 ], [ "1987-04-01", 24.9844 ], [ "1988-01-01", 25.9335 ], [ "1988-07-01", 25.7186 ], [ "1989-04-01", 26.0735 ], [ "1990-01-01", 26.3798 ], [ "1990-07-01", 26.7167 ], [ "1991-04-01", 27.6235 ], [ "1992-01-01", 27.0523 ], [ "1992-07-01", 26.649 ], [ "1993-04-01", 25.4805 ], [ "1994-01-01", 24.0863 ], [ "1994-07-01", 24.1799 ], [ "1995-04-01", 24.8545 ], [ "1996-01-01", 24.3239 ], [ "1996-07-01", 23.3855 ], [ "1997-04-01", 22.0828 ], [ "1998-01-01", 21.1169 ], [ "1998-07-01", 20.2496 ], [ "1999-04-01", 18.6794 ], [ "2000-01-01", 17.3782 ], [ "2000-07-01", 16.9957 ], [ "2001-04-01", 15.9542 ], [ "2001-10-01", 15.7933 ], [ "2002-07-01", 16.0548 ], [ "2003-04-01", 15.1789 ], [ "2003-10-01", 15.1462 ], [ "2004-07-01", 14.9388 ], [ "2005-04-01", 15.1224 ], [ "2005-10-01", 14.8823 ], [ "2006-07-01", 14.6828 ], [ "2007-04-01", 15.2536 ], [ "2007-10-01", 15.4823 ], [ "2008-07-01", 14.8433 ], [ "2009-04-01", 15.8346 ], [ "2009-10-01", 15.4066 ], [ "2010-07-01", 15.6746 ], [ "2011-04-01", 16.5045 ], [ "2011-10-01", 16.7495 ], [ "2012-07-01", 15.6464 ], [ "2013-04-01", 12.7131 ], [ "2013-10-01", 13.0944 ], [ "2014-07-01", 13.3822 ], [ "2015-01-01", 12.64 ], [ "2015-10-01", 12.3843 ], [ "2016-07-01", 13.1897 ], [ "2017-01-01", 13.2293 ], [ "2017-10-01", 13.8885 ], [ "2018-07-01", 15.1935 ], [ "2019-01-01", 15.8724 ], [ "2019-10-01", 14.9394 ], [ "2020-07-01", 13.3772 ], [ "2021-01-01", 12.9014 ], [ "2021-10-01", 13.0577 ], [ "2022-07-01", 14.6052 ], [ "2023-01-01", 18.1243 ], [ "2023-10-01", 20.9371 ], [ "2024-07-01", 21.9992 ], [ "2025-01-01", 21.2177 ], [ "2025-10-01", 20.8104 ], [ "2026-04-01", 21.2351 ] ], "key": "interest_burden", "group": "sfd", "group_label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise" }, "deficit_gdp": { "label": "Haushaltssaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": -5.77, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "start": "1929-01-01", "n": 97, "percentile": 14.4, "pressure": 85.6, "zscore": 0.52, "tau": -0.23, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-01-01", "change_10y": -3.35, "change_30y": -3.62, "note": "Negative Werte sind Defizite. Bemerkenswert ist weniger die H\u00f6he als der Umstand, dass sie bei Vollbesch\u00e4ftigung auftritt \u2014 antizyklische Haushaltspolitik hat damit ihren Spielraum bereits im Aufschwung verbraucht.", "source": "OMB \u00fcber FRED (FYFSGDA188S, ab 1929)", "spark": [ [ "1929-01-01", 0.702 ], [ "1930-01-01", 0.8008 ], [ "1931-01-01", -0.597 ], [ "1932-01-01", -4.5949 ], [ "1933-01-01", -4.5526 ], [ "1934-01-01", -5.3683 ], [ "1935-01-01", -3.7755 ], [ "1936-01-01", -5.0737 ], [ "1937-01-01", -2.358 ], [ "1938-01-01", -0.1019 ], [ "1939-01-01", -3.0459 ], [ "1940-01-01", -2.8377 ], [ "1941-01-01", -3.8211 ], [ "1942-01-01", -12.3548 ], [ "1943-01-01", -26.8628 ], [ "1944-01-01", -21.1885 ], [ "1945-01-01", -20.8559 ], [ "1946-01-01", -7.0038 ], [ "1947-01-01", 1.6097 ], [ "1948-01-01", 4.2978 ], [ "1949-01-01", 0.2129 ], [ "1950-01-01", -1.0403 ], [ "1951-01-01", 1.7589 ], [ "1952-01-01", -0.4135 ], [ "1953-01-01", -1.6682 ], [ "1954-01-01", -0.2955 ], [ "1955-01-01", -0.7034 ], [ "1956-01-01", 0.8784 ], [ "1957-01-01", 0.7198 ], [ "1958-01-01", -0.5754 ], [ "1959-01-01", -2.4631 ], [ "1960-01-01", 0.0555 ], [ "1961-01-01", -0.5932 ], [ "1962-01-01", -1.1833 ], [ "1963-01-01", -0.7461 ], [ "1964-01-01", -0.8642 ], [ "1965-01-01", -0.1901 ], [ "1966-01-01", -0.4546 ], [ "1967-01-01", -1.005 ], [ "1968-01-01", -2.6749 ], [ "1969-01-01", 0.3186 ], [ "1970-01-01", -0.2648 ], [ "1971-01-01", -1.9773 ], [ "1972-01-01", -1.8273 ], [ "1973-01-01", -1.0459 ], [ "1974-01-01", -0.397 ], [ "1975-01-01", -3.1599 ], [ "1976-01-01", -3.9357 ], [ "1977-01-01", -2.5775 ], [ "1978-01-01", -2.5168 ], [ "1979-01-01", -1.5501 ], [ "1980-01-01", -2.5839 ], [ "1981-01-01", -2.4623 ], [ "1982-01-01", -3.8273 ], [ "1983-01-01", -5.7182 ], [ "1984-01-01", -4.591 ], [ "1985-01-01", -4.893 ], [ "1986-01-01", -4.8307 ], [ "1987-01-01", -3.0839 ], [ "1988-01-01", -2.9634 ], [ "1989-01-01", -2.7056 ], [ "1990-01-01", -3.7067 ], [ "1991-01-01", -4.3721 ], [ "1992-01-01", -4.4525 ], [ "1993-01-01", -3.7187 ], [ "1994-01-01", -2.7883 ], [ "1995-01-01", -2.146 ], [ "1996-01-01", -1.3307 ], [ "1997-01-01", -0.2551 ], [ "1998-01-01", 0.7643 ], [ "1999-01-01", 1.3042 ], [ "2000-01-01", 2.3046 ], [ "2001-01-01", 1.2118 ], [ "2002-01-01", -1.4435 ], [ "2003-01-01", -3.2958 ], [ "2004-01-01", -3.3782 ], [ "2005-01-01", -2.4415 ], [ "2006-01-01", -1.7964 ], [ "2007-01-01", -1.1103 ], [ "2008-01-01", -3.1046 ], [ "2009-01-01", -9.7574 ], [ "2010-01-01", -8.6011 ], [ "2011-01-01", -8.3309 ], [ "2012-01-01", -6.6235 ], [ "2013-01-01", -4.0269 ], [ "2014-01-01", -2.7532 ], [ "2015-01-01", -2.4157 ], [ "2016-01-01", -3.109 ], [ "2017-01-01", -3.3931 ], [ "2018-01-01", -3.7716 ], [ "2019-01-01", -4.5663 ], [ "2020-01-01", -14.4824 ], [ "2021-01-01", -11.6903 ], [ "2022-01-01", -5.2742 ], [ "2023-01-01", -6.0675 ], [ "2024-01-01", -6.1963 ], [ "2025-01-01", -5.7691 ] ], "key": "deficit_gdp", "group": "sfd", "group_label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise" }, "policy_uncertainty": { "label": "Wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "Index", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 319.6, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1900-01-01", "n": 1519, "percentile": 99.0, "pressure": 99.0, "zscore": 4.64, "tau": 0.305, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2021-02-01", "change_10y": 181.7, "change_30y": 241.0, "note": "Zeitungsbasierter Index von Baker, Bloom und Davis, hier als gleitendes Zw\u00f6lfmonatsmittel \u2014 die Rohreihe ist zu verrauscht f\u00fcr Niveauaussagen. Reicht bis 1900 zur\u00fcck und deckt damit beide Weltkriege, 1929 und 1968 ab.", "source": "policyuncertainty.com (news-based index, 1900\u2013heute)", "spark": [ [ "1900-01-01", 139.9062 ], [ "1901-01-01", 102.4112 ], [ "1902-02-01", 90.4852 ], [ "1903-02-01", 66.7471 ], [ "1904-03-01", 63.2891 ], [ "1905-04-01", 69.953 ], [ "1906-04-01", 63.6731 ], [ "1907-05-01", 50.8369 ], [ "1908-06-01", 60.0064 ], [ "1909-06-01", 71.9205 ], [ "1910-07-01", 67.0243 ], [ "1911-08-01", 68.1073 ], [ "1912-08-01", 60.0177 ], [ "1913-09-01", 79.191 ], [ "1914-10-01", 100.871 ], [ "1915-10-01", 98.131 ], [ "1916-11-01", 80.8059 ], [ "1917-12-01", 85.4585 ], [ "1918-12-01", 113.8096 ], [ "1920-01-01", 96.8649 ], [ "1921-02-01", 61.8724 ], [ "1922-02-01", 75.5484 ], [ "1923-03-01", 60.5279 ], [ "1924-04-01", 69.8532 ], [ "1925-04-01", 80.7972 ], [ "1926-05-01", 53.2456 ], [ "1927-06-01", 59.48 ], [ "1928-06-01", 52.9554 ], [ "1929-07-01", 68.4792 ], [ "1930-08-01", 64.3777 ], [ "1931-08-01", 67.2495 ], [ "1932-09-01", 107.2623 ], [ "1933-10-01", 115.0136 ], [ "1934-10-01", 140.6451 ], [ "1935-11-01", 161.22 ], [ "1936-12-01", 118.1313 ], [ "1937-12-01", 121.7527 ], [ "1939-01-01", 125.5088 ], [ "1940-02-01", 127.9753 ], [ "1941-02-01", 138.6371 ], [ "1942-03-01", 112.1618 ], [ "1943-03-01", 132.8494 ], [ "1944-04-01", 104.6478 ], [ "1945-05-01", 89.8322 ], [ "1946-05-01", 107.961 ], [ "1947-06-01", 99.4751 ], [ "1948-07-01", 71.6881 ], [ "1949-07-01", 64.8072 ], [ "1950-08-01", 53.4716 ], [ "1951-09-01", 65.1325 ], [ "1952-09-01", 49.1313 ], [ "1953-10-01", 51.1336 ], [ "1954-11-01", 47.8629 ], [ "1955-11-01", 36.7999 ], [ "1956-12-01", 38.4451 ], [ "1958-01-01", 36.5125 ], [ "1959-01-01", 37.4089 ], [ "1960-02-01", 32.3876 ], [ "1961-03-01", 36.0587 ], [ "1962-03-01", 34.4082 ], [ "1963-04-01", 45.9876 ], [ "1964-05-01", 41.7106 ], [ "1965-05-01", 40.5821 ], [ "1966-06-01", 43.2733 ], [ "1967-07-01", 53.4498 ], [ "1968-07-01", 65.5532 ], [ "1969-08-01", 56.0026 ], [ "1970-09-01", 55.2722 ], [ "1971-09-01", 65.7585 ], [ "1972-10-01", 68.9097 ], [ "1973-11-01", 85.371 ], [ "1974-11-01", 98.4776 ], [ "1975-12-01", 87.8569 ], [ "1977-01-01", 73.8148 ], [ "1978-01-01", 86.2789 ], [ "1979-02-01", 89.1339 ], [ "1980-03-01", 98.2374 ], [ "1981-03-01", 89.2801 ], [ "1982-04-01", 99.845 ], [ "1983-05-01", 110.8189 ], [ "1984-05-01", 98.7068 ], [ "1985-06-01", 100.2867 ], [ "1986-06-01", 112.4632 ], [ "1987-07-01", 96.9887 ], [ "1988-08-01", 112.5467 ], [ "1989-08-01", 84.0215 ], [ "1990-09-01", 105.8971 ], [ "1991-10-01", 115.1037 ], [ "1992-10-01", 126.2466 ], [ "1993-11-01", 103.1778 ], [ "1994-12-01", 87.571 ], [ "1995-12-01", 83.1856 ], [ "1997-01-01", 73.6556 ], [ "1998-02-01", 81.9713 ], [ "1999-02-01", 108.9571 ], [ "2000-03-01", 75.5977 ], [ "2001-04-01", 117.4801 ], [ "2002-04-01", 143.7988 ], [ "2003-05-01", 154.9394 ], [ "2004-06-01", 89.6968 ], [ "2005-06-01", 80.5597 ], [ "2006-07-01", 74.2844 ], [ "2007-08-01", 62.5372 ], [ "2008-08-01", 108.0163 ], [ "2009-09-01", 148.2129 ], [ "2010-10-01", 137.7771 ], [ "2011-10-01", 157.335 ], [ "2012-11-01", 155.3216 ], [ "2013-12-01", 137.9606 ], [ "2014-12-01", 92.4672 ], [ "2016-01-01", 115.8008 ], [ "2017-02-01", 150.9315 ], [ "2018-02-01", 134.3044 ], [ "2019-03-01", 163.6589 ], [ "2020-04-01", 231.1605 ], [ "2021-04-01", 288.7569 ], [ "2022-05-01", 171.5227 ], [ "2023-06-01", 186.6697 ], [ "2024-06-01", 122.5185 ], [ "2025-07-01", 322.325 ], [ "2026-07-01", 319.6431 ] ], "key": "policy_uncertainty", "group": "instab", "group_label": "Realisierte Instabilit\u00e4t (Ergebnisgr\u00f6\u00dfe, nicht Teil des PSI)" }, "consumer_sentiment": { "label": "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "pillar": "turchin", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "Index", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": 49.5, "as_of": "2026-06-01", "start": "1952-11-01", "n": 674, "percentile": 0.3, "pressure": 99.7, "zscore": 2.56, "tau": -0.13, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -44.0, "change_30y": -42.9, "note": "Der beste verf\u00fcgbare Langzeit-N\u00e4herungswert f\u00fcr erlebte Legitimit\u00e4t: Er misst nicht die Konjunkturlage, sondern wie die Bev\u00f6lkerung sie bewertet \u2014 und beides ist seit 2021 auff\u00e4llig entkoppelt.", "source": "University of Michigan \u00fcber FRED (UMCSENT, ab 1952)", "spark": [ [ "1952-11-01", 86.2 ], [ "1954-05-01", 82.9 ], [ "1956-08-01", 99.9 ], [ "1958-05-01", 80.9 ], [ "1960-08-01", 97.2 ], [ "1962-02-01", 99.9 ], [ "1963-05-01", 91.7 ], [ "1964-11-01", 99.9 ], [ "1966-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "1967-08-01", 97.0 ], [ "1969-02-01", 98.2 ], [ "1970-05-01", 75.4 ], [ "1971-11-01", 82.0 ], [ "1973-05-01", 77.0 ], [ "1974-08-01", 64.4 ], [ "1976-02-01", 84.6 ], [ "1977-05-01", 90.2 ], [ "1978-04-01", 81.6 ], [ "1978-10-01", 79.3 ], [ "1979-03-01", 68.4 ], [ "1979-09-01", 66.7 ], [ "1980-02-01", 66.9 ], [ "1980-08-01", 67.3 ], [ "1981-02-01", 66.9 ], [ "1981-07-01", 74.1 ], [ "1982-01-01", 71.0 ], [ "1982-07-01", 65.4 ], [ "1982-12-01", 71.9 ], [ "1983-06-01", 92.2 ], [ "1983-11-01", 91.1 ], [ "1984-05-01", 98.1 ], [ "1984-11-01", 95.7 ], [ "1985-04-01", 94.6 ], [ "1985-10-01", 88.4 ], [ "1986-03-01", 95.1 ], [ "1986-09-01", 91.9 ], [ "1987-03-01", 90.8 ], [ "1987-08-01", 94.4 ], [ "1988-02-01", 91.6 ], [ "1988-08-01", 97.4 ], [ "1989-01-01", 97.9 ], [ "1989-07-01", 92.0 ], [ "1989-12-01", 90.5 ], [ "1990-06-01", 88.3 ], [ "1990-12-01", 65.5 ], [ "1991-05-01", 78.3 ], [ "1991-11-01", 69.1 ], [ "1992-04-01", 77.2 ], [ "1992-10-01", 73.3 ], [ "1993-04-01", 85.6 ], [ "1993-09-01", 77.9 ], [ "1994-03-01", 91.5 ], [ "1994-09-01", 91.5 ], [ "1995-02-01", 95.1 ], [ "1995-08-01", 96.2 ], [ "1996-01-01", 89.3 ], [ "1996-07-01", 94.7 ], [ "1997-01-01", 97.4 ], [ "1997-06-01", 104.5 ], [ "1997-12-01", 102.1 ], [ "1998-06-01", 105.6 ], [ "1998-11-01", 102.7 ], [ "1999-05-01", 106.8 ], [ "1999-10-01", 103.2 ], [ "2000-04-01", 109.2 ], [ "2000-10-01", 105.8 ], [ "2001-03-01", 91.5 ], [ "2001-09-01", 81.8 ], [ "2002-02-01", 90.7 ], [ "2002-08-01", 87.6 ], [ "2003-02-01", 79.9 ], [ "2003-07-01", 90.9 ], [ "2004-01-01", 103.8 ], [ "2004-07-01", 96.7 ], [ "2004-12-01", 97.1 ], [ "2005-06-01", 96.0 ], [ "2005-11-01", 81.6 ], [ "2006-05-01", 79.1 ], [ "2006-11-01", 92.1 ], [ "2007-04-01", 87.1 ], [ "2007-10-01", 80.9 ], [ "2008-03-01", 69.5 ], [ "2008-09-01", 70.3 ], [ "2009-03-01", 57.3 ], [ "2009-08-01", 65.7 ], [ "2010-02-01", 73.6 ], [ "2010-08-01", 68.9 ], [ "2011-01-01", 74.2 ], [ "2011-07-01", 63.7 ], [ "2011-12-01", 69.9 ], [ "2012-06-01", 73.2 ], [ "2012-12-01", 72.9 ], [ "2013-05-01", 84.5 ], [ "2013-11-01", 75.1 ], [ "2014-04-01", 84.1 ], [ "2014-10-01", 86.9 ], [ "2015-04-01", 95.9 ], [ "2015-09-01", 87.2 ], [ "2016-03-01", 91.0 ], [ "2016-09-01", 91.2 ], [ "2017-02-01", 96.3 ], [ "2017-08-01", 96.8 ], [ "2018-01-01", 95.7 ], [ "2018-07-01", 97.9 ], [ "2019-01-01", 91.2 ], [ "2019-06-01", 98.2 ], [ "2019-12-01", 99.3 ], [ "2020-05-01", 72.3 ], [ "2020-11-01", 76.9 ], [ "2021-05-01", 82.9 ], [ "2021-10-01", 71.7 ], [ "2022-04-01", 65.2 ], [ "2022-10-01", 59.9 ], [ "2023-03-01", 62.0 ], [ "2023-09-01", 67.8 ], [ "2024-02-01", 76.9 ], [ "2024-08-01", 67.9 ], [ "2025-02-01", 64.7 ], [ "2025-07-01", 61.7 ], [ "2026-01-01", 56.4 ], [ "2026-06-01", 49.5 ] ], "key": "consumer_sentiment", "group": "instab", "group_label": "Realisierte Instabilit\u00e4t (Ergebnisgr\u00f6\u00dfe, nicht Teil des PSI)" }, "profit_rate": { "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.4, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 9.06, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 313, "percentile": 99.7, "pressure": 0.3, "zscore": -2.13, "tau": 0.341, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-10-01", "change_10y": 0.94, "change_30y": 3.52, "note": "Nachsteuergewinne im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum Nettoanlageverm\u00f6gen zu Wiederbeschaffungskosten \u2014 die direkteste verf\u00fcgbare Umsetzung der Marxschen Profitrate. Der Nenner ist eine Jahresreihe, der Z\u00e4hler quartalsweise; der Nenner wird deshalb innerhalb des Jahres fortgeschrieben.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (CPATAX \u00f7 K1NTOTL1ES000)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 3.7479 ], [ "1947-07-01", 5.2189 ], [ "1948-04-01", 6.5541 ], [ "1948-10-01", 6.9818 ], [ "1949-07-01", 6.7371 ], [ "1950-04-01", 5.294 ], [ "1950-10-01", 5.5179 ], [ "1951-07-01", 5.7967 ], [ "1952-01-01", 5.3061 ], [ "1952-10-01", 5.5019 ], [ "1953-07-01", 5.0615 ], [ "1954-01-01", 4.9195 ], [ "1954-10-01", 5.3747 ], [ "1955-04-01", 6.2853 ], [ "1956-01-01", 5.4865 ], [ "1956-10-01", 5.2453 ], [ "1957-04-01", 5.3517 ], [ "1958-01-01", 4.1966 ], [ "1958-07-01", 4.6886 ], [ "1959-04-01", 5.9438 ], [ "1960-01-01", 5.8693 ], [ "1960-07-01", 5.5677 ], [ "1961-04-01", 5.47 ], [ "1961-10-01", 5.919 ], [ "1962-07-01", 6.4921 ], [ "1963-04-01", 6.8885 ], [ "1963-10-01", 6.7074 ], [ "1964-07-01", 7.4652 ], [ "1965-04-01", 7.9601 ], [ "1965-10-01", 7.7424 ], [ "1966-07-01", 7.7925 ], [ "1967-01-01", 7.1964 ], [ "1967-10-01", 6.7215 ], [ "1968-07-01", 6.8408 ], [ "1969-01-01", 6.1353 ], [ "1969-10-01", 4.8934 ], [ "1970-04-01", 4.9339 ], [ "1971-01-01", 4.881 ], [ "1971-10-01", 5.1101 ], [ "1972-04-01", 5.481 ], [ "1973-01-01", 5.6054 ], [ "1973-07-01", 5.7056 ], [ "1974-04-01", 4.3433 ], [ "1975-01-01", 3.8127 ], [ "1975-07-01", 4.691 ], [ "1976-04-01", 4.9894 ], [ "1976-10-01", 4.5753 ], [ "1977-07-01", 5.8754 ], [ "1978-04-01", 5.5648 ], [ "1978-10-01", 5.2327 ], [ "1979-07-01", 5.1073 ], [ "1980-04-01", 3.7323 ], [ "1980-10-01", 3.5995 ], [ "1981-07-01", 4.2892 ], [ "1982-01-01", 3.6875 ], [ "1982-10-01", 3.7285 ], [ "1983-07-01", 4.541 ], [ "1984-01-01", 4.9059 ], [ "1984-10-01", 5.006 ], [ "1985-04-01", 5.0908 ], [ "1986-01-01", 4.4735 ], [ "1986-10-01", 3.6274 ], [ "1987-04-01", 4.2751 ], [ "1988-01-01", 4.5029 ], [ "1988-07-01", 4.5525 ], [ "1989-04-01", 4.4389 ], [ "1990-01-01", 4.2573 ], [ "1990-07-01", 4.0102 ], [ "1991-04-01", 4.5815 ], [ "1991-10-01", 4.4269 ], [ "1992-07-01", 4.5784 ], [ "1993-04-01", 4.6378 ], [ "1993-10-01", 4.9017 ], [ "1994-07-01", 5.6928 ], [ "1995-04-01", 5.8633 ], [ "1995-10-01", 6.0701 ], [ "1996-07-01", 6.4571 ], [ "1997-01-01", 6.5993 ], [ "1997-10-01", 6.6508 ], [ "1998-07-01", 6.0595 ], [ "1999-01-01", 5.9912 ], [ "1999-10-01", 5.4403 ], [ "2000-04-01", 5.1339 ], [ "2001-01-01", 4.8686 ], [ "2001-10-01", 5.0646 ], [ "2002-04-01", 5.9276 ], [ "2003-01-01", 6.1916 ], [ "2003-07-01", 6.7491 ], [ "2004-04-01", 7.2753 ], [ "2005-01-01", 7.1578 ], [ "2005-07-01", 7.4894 ], [ "2006-04-01", 7.5338 ], [ "2006-10-01", 7.1552 ], [ "2007-07-01", 6.8747 ], [ "2008-04-01", 6.0828 ], [ "2008-10-01", 4.931 ], [ "2009-07-01", 7.0536 ], [ "2010-04-01", 7.617 ], [ "2010-10-01", 8.1149 ], [ "2011-07-01", 8.2656 ], [ "2012-01-01", 8.7056 ], [ "2012-10-01", 8.0759 ], [ "2013-07-01", 8.1771 ], [ "2014-01-01", 7.5044 ], [ "2014-10-01", 8.3592 ], [ "2015-04-01", 8.0002 ], [ "2016-01-01", 7.6741 ], [ "2016-10-01", 7.5112 ], [ "2017-04-01", 7.8818 ], [ "2018-01-01", 8.0405 ], [ "2018-07-01", 8.2133 ], [ "2019-04-01", 8.1772 ], [ "2020-01-01", 7.3421 ], [ "2020-07-01", 8.9374 ], [ "2021-04-01", 8.9304 ], [ "2021-10-01", 7.9833 ], [ "2022-07-01", 8.5408 ], [ "2023-04-01", 8.4313 ], [ "2023-10-01", 8.7267 ], [ "2024-07-01", 8.5752 ], [ "2025-01-01", 9.0597 ] ], "key": "profit_rate", "group": "profit", "group_label": "Profitabilit\u00e4t" }, "profit_share": { "label": "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 12.4, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 317, "percentile": 99.7, "pressure": 99.7, "zscore": 2.26, "tau": 0.29, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2021-04-01", "change_10y": 2.65, "change_30y": 5.57, "note": "Spiegelbild der Lohnquote. Ein hoher Wert ist aus Kapitalsicht St\u00e4rke, aus Systemsicht das Unterkonsumtionsproblem: Was nicht als Lohn ausgezahlt wird, muss als Kredit oder Export zur\u00fcckkommen, damit es gekauft wird.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (CP \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 9.0351 ], [ "1947-07-01", 8.2393 ], [ "1948-04-01", 9.1504 ], [ "1948-10-01", 8.4746 ], [ "1949-07-01", 7.2616 ], [ "1950-04-01", 8.2012 ], [ "1950-10-01", 9.8708 ], [ "1951-07-01", 5.9132 ], [ "1952-04-01", 5.8984 ], [ "1952-10-01", 6.2372 ], [ "1953-07-01", 6.1868 ], [ "1954-04-01", 5.8347 ], [ "1954-10-01", 6.383 ], [ "1955-07-01", 6.9367 ], [ "1956-01-01", 6.9588 ], [ "1956-10-01", 6.9232 ], [ "1957-07-01", 6.3138 ], [ "1958-01-01", 5.1837 ], [ "1958-10-01", 6.097 ], [ "1959-07-01", 6.1788 ], [ "1960-01-01", 6.3787 ], [ "1960-10-01", 5.5391 ], [ "1961-07-01", 5.693 ], [ "1962-01-01", 5.9251 ], [ "1962-10-01", 6.0538 ], [ "1963-07-01", 6.1531 ], [ "1964-01-01", 6.63 ], [ "1964-10-01", 6.4782 ], [ "1965-04-01", 7.2 ], [ "1966-01-01", 7.3037 ], [ "1966-10-01", 6.9023 ], [ "1967-04-01", 6.5087 ], [ "1968-01-01", 6.4681 ], [ "1968-10-01", 6.4666 ], [ "1969-04-01", 5.9796 ], [ "1970-01-01", 5.2628 ], [ "1970-10-01", 4.9008 ], [ "1971-04-01", 5.3984 ], [ "1972-01-01", 5.9146 ], [ "1972-10-01", 6.2822 ], [ "1973-04-01", 7.0043 ], [ "1974-01-01", 7.5547 ], [ "1974-07-01", 7.7601 ], [ "1975-04-01", 6.0178 ], [ "1976-01-01", 7.2894 ], [ "1976-07-01", 7.3594 ], [ "1977-04-01", 7.7217 ], [ "1978-01-01", 7.8056 ], [ "1978-07-01", 8.2528 ], [ "1979-04-01", 8.5363 ], [ "1980-01-01", 7.9997 ], [ "1980-07-01", 7.0619 ], [ "1981-04-01", 6.3271 ], [ "1982-01-01", 5.5419 ], [ "1982-07-01", 5.3052 ], [ "1983-04-01", 5.4012 ], [ "1983-10-01", 5.5451 ], [ "1984-07-01", 5.1867 ], [ "1985-04-01", 4.7636 ], [ "1985-10-01", 4.7202 ], [ "1986-07-01", 3.7091 ], [ "1987-04-01", 4.5902 ], [ "1987-10-01", 4.8654 ], [ "1988-07-01", 5.0329 ], [ "1989-04-01", 4.8671 ], [ "1989-10-01", 4.5761 ], [ "1990-07-01", 4.8075 ], [ "1991-01-01", 4.9625 ], [ "1991-10-01", 5.0459 ], [ "1992-07-01", 5.0049 ], [ "1993-01-01", 4.9727 ], [ "1993-10-01", 5.4528 ], [ "1994-07-01", 6.1312 ], [ "1995-01-01", 6.3484 ], [ "1995-10-01", 6.651 ], [ "1996-07-01", 6.6074 ], [ "1997-01-01", 6.7488 ], [ "1997-10-01", 6.981 ], [ "1998-07-01", 5.8685 ], [ "1999-01-01", 5.87 ], [ "1999-10-01", 5.9695 ], [ "2000-04-01", 5.458 ], [ "2001-01-01", 5.3761 ], [ "2001-10-01", 4.8095 ], [ "2002-04-01", 5.6446 ], [ "2003-01-01", 6.6176 ], [ "2003-10-01", 7.1368 ], [ "2004-04-01", 8.2323 ], [ "2005-01-01", 9.9192 ], [ "2005-10-01", 10.5638 ], [ "2006-04-01", 10.7086 ], [ "2007-01-01", 9.7386 ], [ "2007-10-01", 9.738 ], [ "2008-04-01", 9.0679 ], [ "2009-01-01", 7.8021 ], [ "2009-07-01", 9.5675 ], [ "2010-04-01", 10.419 ], [ "2011-01-01", 9.8612 ], [ "2011-07-01", 10.175 ], [ "2012-04-01", 11.4772 ], [ "2013-01-01", 10.9998 ], [ "2013-07-01", 10.9864 ], [ "2014-04-01", 11.1458 ], [ "2015-01-01", 10.3913 ], [ "2015-07-01", 10.0153 ], [ "2016-04-01", 9.9693 ], [ "2017-01-01", 10.6103 ], [ "2017-07-01", 10.4684 ], [ "2018-04-01", 10.0252 ], [ "2018-10-01", 9.6375 ], [ "2019-07-01", 9.6136 ], [ "2020-04-01", 9.311 ], [ "2020-10-01", 10.9991 ], [ "2021-07-01", 12.395 ], [ "2022-04-01", 12.2062 ], [ "2022-10-01", 10.8023 ], [ "2023-07-01", 11.7226 ], [ "2024-04-01", 11.9008 ], [ "2024-10-01", 12.3703 ], [ "2025-07-01", 11.5485 ], [ "2026-01-01", 12.3979 ] ], "key": "profit_share", "group": "profit", "group_label": "Profitabilit\u00e4t" }, "capacity_utilization": { "label": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": 76.1, "as_of": "2026-06-01", "start": "1967-01-01", "n": 714, "percentile": 18.2, "pressure": 81.8, "zscore": 0.88, "tau": -0.429, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-05-01", "change_10y": 0.6, "change_30y": -7.7, "note": "Der direkte Test der \u00dcberproduktionsthese: Wenn Kapazit\u00e4ten dauerhaft brachliegen, ist Kapital angelegt, das sich nicht verwerten l\u00e4sst.", "source": "Federal Reserve \u00fcber FRED (TCU, ab 1967)", "spark": [ [ "1967-01-01", 89.3902 ], [ "1967-06-01", 85.9603 ], [ "1967-12-01", 87.8417 ], [ "1968-06-01", 87.6744 ], [ "1968-12-01", 87.6668 ], [ "1969-06-01", 87.7487 ], [ "1969-12-01", 85.5368 ], [ "1970-06-01", 81.6542 ], [ "1970-12-01", 79.3872 ], [ "1971-06-01", 79.7132 ], [ "1971-12-01", 80.9666 ], [ "1972-06-01", 84.14 ], [ "1972-12-01", 87.4839 ], [ "1973-06-01", 88.2262 ], [ "1973-12-01", 88.2372 ], [ "1974-06-01", 86.199 ], [ "1974-12-01", 78.472 ], [ "1975-06-01", 74.4361 ], [ "1975-12-01", 77.6271 ], [ "1976-06-01", 79.3919 ], [ "1976-12-01", 81.6007 ], [ "1977-05-01", 83.7597 ], [ "1977-11-01", 83.8404 ], [ "1978-05-01", 85.4885 ], [ "1978-11-01", 86.4507 ], [ "1979-05-01", 85.4833 ], [ "1979-11-01", 84.1017 ], [ "1980-05-01", 79.6867 ], [ "1980-11-01", 81.0289 ], [ "1981-05-01", 80.0484 ], [ "1981-11-01", 77.7706 ], [ "1982-05-01", 74.2775 ], [ "1982-11-01", 71.5396 ], [ "1983-05-01", 73.6804 ], [ "1983-11-01", 77.9317 ], [ "1984-05-01", 80.8857 ], [ "1984-11-01", 80.4551 ], [ "1985-05-01", 79.53 ], [ "1985-11-01", 78.624 ], [ "1986-05-01", 78.3175 ], [ "1986-11-01", 78.7 ], [ "1987-04-01", 80.1481 ], [ "1987-10-01", 82.7171 ], [ "1988-04-01", 84.2045 ], [ "1988-10-01", 84.5914 ], [ "1989-04-01", 84.6312 ], [ "1989-10-01", 82.6969 ], [ "1990-04-01", 82.8001 ], [ "1990-10-01", 82.1303 ], [ "1991-04-01", 78.9062 ], [ "1991-10-01", 80.6424 ], [ "1992-04-01", 80.6802 ], [ "1992-10-01", 81.0138 ], [ "1993-04-01", 81.5045 ], [ "1993-10-01", 81.7992 ], [ "1994-04-01", 83.1358 ], [ "1994-10-01", 84.1216 ], [ "1995-04-01", 83.8748 ], [ "1995-10-01", 83.58 ], [ "1996-04-01", 83.2941 ], [ "1996-10-01", 83.1973 ], [ "1997-03-01", 84.12 ], [ "1997-09-01", 84.5693 ], [ "1998-03-01", 83.5488 ], [ "1998-09-01", 82.3253 ], [ "1999-03-01", 82.0452 ], [ "1999-09-01", 81.3642 ], [ "2000-03-01", 82.2023 ], [ "2000-09-01", 81.4061 ], [ "2001-03-01", 78.2472 ], [ "2001-09-01", 74.9237 ], [ "2002-03-01", 74.4558 ], [ "2002-09-01", 75.4995 ], [ "2003-03-01", 76.0272 ], [ "2003-09-01", 76.483 ], [ "2004-03-01", 77.4721 ], [ "2004-09-01", 78.5109 ], [ "2005-03-01", 80.4638 ], [ "2005-09-01", 78.8319 ], [ "2006-03-01", 80.6609 ], [ "2006-09-01", 80.4492 ], [ "2007-02-01", 80.7218 ], [ "2007-08-01", 80.8082 ], [ "2008-02-01", 80.7602 ], [ "2008-08-01", 77.7251 ], [ "2009-02-01", 69.2326 ], [ "2009-08-01", 68.0795 ], [ "2010-02-01", 71.1612 ], [ "2010-08-01", 74.3883 ], [ "2011-02-01", 75.0928 ], [ "2011-08-01", 76.5667 ], [ "2012-02-01", 77.3673 ], [ "2012-08-01", 76.672 ], [ "2013-02-01", 77.0029 ], [ "2013-08-01", 77.1772 ], [ "2014-02-01", 77.7747 ], [ "2014-08-01", 78.7669 ], [ "2015-02-01", 78.055 ], [ "2015-08-01", 77.1715 ], [ "2016-02-01", 75.7291 ], [ "2016-08-01", 75.432 ], [ "2017-01-01", 75.2339 ], [ "2017-07-01", 76.4534 ], [ "2018-01-01", 77.9138 ], [ "2018-07-01", 79.4588 ], [ "2019-01-01", 79.1024 ], [ "2019-07-01", 77.4935 ], [ "2020-01-01", 76.519 ], [ "2020-07-01", 72.2103 ], [ "2021-01-01", 75.9401 ], [ "2021-07-01", 77.7972 ], [ "2022-01-01", 78.088 ], [ "2022-07-01", 78.7204 ], [ "2023-01-01", 77.601 ], [ "2023-07-01", 77.3773 ], [ "2024-01-01", 75.7542 ], [ "2024-07-01", 75.9946 ], [ "2025-01-01", 75.5781 ], [ "2025-07-01", 76.3997 ], [ "2026-01-01", 75.242 ], [ "2026-06-01", 76.0937 ] ], "key": "capacity_utilization", "group": "realisierung", "group_label": "Realisierung und Absatz" }, "net_investment": { "label": "Netto-Investitionsquote", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.3, "unit": "% des BIP", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 3.82, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 9.4, "pressure": 90.6, "zscore": 1.19, "tau": -0.488, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2021-04-01", "change_10y": -0.36, "change_30y": -2.36, "note": "Private Nettoinvestitionen (nach Abschreibungen) im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum BIP \u2014 wie viel Kapital tats\u00e4chlich neu akkumuliert statt nur ersetzt wird. Der Marxsche Akkumulationsbegriff im engeren Sinn.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (A557RC1Q027SBEA \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 8.0452 ], [ "1947-07-01", 6.6787 ], [ "1948-04-01", 10.9188 ], [ "1948-10-01", 10.5837 ], [ "1949-07-01", 6.1461 ], [ "1950-04-01", 9.7843 ], [ "1950-10-01", 13.4261 ], [ "1951-07-01", 9.6142 ], [ "1952-04-01", 6.561 ], [ "1952-10-01", 8.0286 ], [ "1953-07-01", 7.6314 ], [ "1954-04-01", 5.8764 ], [ "1954-10-01", 7.1528 ], [ "1955-07-01", 9.1734 ], [ "1956-04-01", 8.6698 ], [ "1956-10-01", 8.0141 ], [ "1957-07-01", 7.6496 ], [ "1958-04-01", 4.3252 ], [ "1958-10-01", 6.8585 ], [ "1959-07-01", 6.9656 ], [ "1960-04-01", 7.2211 ], [ "1960-10-01", 5.0396 ], [ "1961-07-01", 7.2097 ], [ "1962-01-01", 7.9271 ], [ "1962-10-01", 6.9178 ], [ "1963-07-01", 7.7811 ], [ "1964-01-01", 8.1405 ], [ "1964-10-01", 8.0748 ], [ "1965-07-01", 9.2207 ], [ "1966-01-01", 9.9586 ], [ "1966-10-01", 9.1754 ], [ "1967-07-01", 7.9427 ], [ "1968-01-01", 8.2134 ], [ "1968-10-01", 7.956 ], [ "1969-07-01", 8.4463 ], [ "1970-01-01", 6.9659 ], [ "1970-10-01", 5.9762 ], [ "1971-07-01", 7.917 ], [ "1972-01-01", 8.0898 ], [ "1972-10-01", 8.8707 ], [ "1973-07-01", 9.1303 ], [ "1974-01-01", 8.3529 ], [ "1974-10-01", 7.3989 ], [ "1975-04-01", 4.0346 ], [ "1976-01-01", 6.3207 ], [ "1976-10-01", 6.8969 ], [ "1977-04-01", 8.3772 ], [ "1978-01-01", 8.8722 ], [ "1978-10-01", 10.1066 ], [ "1979-04-01", 9.8003 ], [ "1980-01-01", 8.4912 ], [ "1980-10-01", 6.6631 ], [ "1981-04-01", 7.3802 ], [ "1982-01-01", 5.4653 ], [ "1982-10-01", 3.5199 ], [ "1983-04-01", 4.967 ], [ "1984-01-01", 8.6555 ], [ "1984-10-01", 8.6009 ], [ "1985-04-01", 7.8016 ], [ "1986-01-01", 7.6495 ], [ "1986-10-01", 6.3936 ], [ "1987-04-01", 6.5215 ], [ "1988-01-01", 6.2425 ], [ "1988-07-01", 6.2223 ], [ "1989-04-01", 6.3495 ], [ "1990-01-01", 5.7305 ], [ "1990-07-01", 5.1144 ], [ "1991-04-01", 3.3873 ], [ "1992-01-01", 3.5063 ], [ "1992-07-01", 4.2448 ], [ "1993-04-01", 4.7186 ], [ "1994-01-01", 5.5984 ], [ "1994-07-01", 5.7751 ], [ "1995-04-01", 5.6616 ], [ "1996-01-01", 5.6543 ], [ "1996-07-01", 6.634 ], [ "1997-04-01", 7.1642 ], [ "1998-01-01", 7.7299 ], [ "1998-07-01", 7.4691 ], [ "1999-04-01", 7.6672 ], [ "2000-01-01", 7.4694 ], [ "2000-07-01", 7.9129 ], [ "2001-04-01", 6.283 ], [ "2001-10-01", 4.8254 ], [ "2002-07-01", 5.1545 ], [ "2003-04-01", 5.0294 ], [ "2003-10-01", 5.9152 ], [ "2004-07-01", 6.5871 ], [ "2005-04-01", 6.7525 ], [ "2005-10-01", 7.272 ], [ "2006-07-01", 6.8024 ], [ "2007-04-01", 5.9393 ], [ "2007-10-01", 5.1826 ], [ "2008-07-01", 3.7086 ], [ "2009-04-01", -0.444 ], [ "2009-10-01", 0.5142 ], [ "2010-07-01", 2.0064 ], [ "2011-04-01", 1.9845 ], [ "2011-10-01", 3.0224 ], [ "2012-07-01", 3.3691 ], [ "2013-04-01", 3.6994 ], [ "2013-10-01", 4.1385 ], [ "2014-07-01", 4.6276 ], [ "2015-01-01", 5.0607 ], [ "2015-10-01", 4.6241 ], [ "2016-07-01", 4.1034 ], [ "2017-01-01", 4.2326 ], [ "2017-10-01", 4.6178 ], [ "2018-07-01", 4.9662 ], [ "2019-01-01", 4.8444 ], [ "2019-10-01", 4.3587 ], [ "2020-07-01", 4.1251 ], [ "2021-01-01", 4.2453 ], [ "2021-10-01", 5.1728 ], [ "2022-07-01", 4.4803 ], [ "2023-01-01", 4.2127 ], [ "2023-10-01", 4.5457 ], [ "2024-07-01", 4.422 ], [ "2025-01-01", 4.806 ], [ "2025-10-01", 3.6947 ], [ "2026-04-01", 3.8187 ] ], "key": "net_investment", "group": "realisierung", "group_label": "Realisierung und Absatz" }, "inventory_sales": { "label": "Lagerbest\u00e4nde \u00f7 Umsatz", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 0.7, "unit": "Monate", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 1.28, "as_of": "2026-05-01", "start": "1992-01-01", "n": 413, "percentile": 18.4, "pressure": 18.4, "zscore": -1.18, "tau": -0.264, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-04-01", "change_10y": -0.15, "change_30y": -0.17, "note": "Unmittelbares Realisierungsproblem: produzierte Ware, die keinen K\u00e4ufer findet. Kurze Reihe (ab 1992), daher geringes Gewicht.", "source": "Census \u00fcber FRED (ISRATIO)", "spark": [ [ "1992-01-01", 1.56 ], [ "1992-04-01", 1.53 ], [ "1992-07-01", 1.51 ], [ "1992-11-01", 1.51 ], [ "1993-02-01", 1.5 ], [ "1993-06-01", 1.5 ], [ "1993-09-01", 1.49 ], [ "1994-01-01", 1.48 ], [ "1994-04-01", 1.46 ], [ "1994-07-01", 1.47 ], [ "1994-11-01", 1.45 ], [ "1995-02-01", 1.46 ], [ "1995-06-01", 1.48 ], [ "1995-09-01", 1.47 ], [ "1996-01-01", 1.5 ], [ "1996-04-01", 1.46 ], [ "1996-08-01", 1.45 ], [ "1996-11-01", 1.43 ], [ "1997-02-01", 1.41 ], [ "1997-06-01", 1.42 ], [ "1997-09-01", 1.41 ], [ "1998-01-01", 1.43 ], [ "1998-04-01", 1.43 ], [ "1998-08-01", 1.44 ], [ "1998-11-01", 1.43 ], [ "1999-03-01", 1.42 ], [ "1999-06-01", 1.4 ], [ "1999-09-01", 1.39 ], [ "2000-01-01", 1.38 ], [ "2000-04-01", 1.39 ], [ "2000-08-01", 1.42 ], [ "2000-11-01", 1.43 ], [ "2001-03-01", 1.44 ], [ "2001-06-01", 1.44 ], [ "2001-10-01", 1.39 ], [ "2002-01-01", 1.39 ], [ "2002-04-01", 1.35 ], [ "2002-08-01", 1.34 ], [ "2002-11-01", 1.35 ], [ "2003-03-01", 1.35 ], [ "2003-06-01", 1.34 ], [ "2003-10-01", 1.31 ], [ "2004-01-01", 1.31 ], [ "2004-04-01", 1.29 ], [ "2004-08-01", 1.31 ], [ "2004-11-01", 1.29 ], [ "2005-03-01", 1.29 ], [ "2005-06-01", 1.27 ], [ "2005-10-01", 1.25 ], [ "2006-01-01", 1.25 ], [ "2006-05-01", 1.27 ], [ "2006-08-01", 1.28 ], [ "2006-11-01", 1.31 ], [ "2007-03-01", 1.28 ], [ "2007-06-01", 1.28 ], [ "2007-10-01", 1.27 ], [ "2008-01-01", 1.27 ], [ "2008-05-01", 1.26 ], [ "2008-08-01", 1.29 ], [ "2008-12-01", 1.47 ], [ "2009-03-01", 1.47 ], [ "2009-06-01", 1.38 ], [ "2009-10-01", 1.31 ], [ "2010-01-01", 1.27 ], [ "2010-05-01", 1.26 ], [ "2010-08-01", 1.27 ], [ "2010-12-01", 1.27 ], [ "2011-03-01", 1.24 ], [ "2011-07-01", 1.26 ], [ "2011-10-01", 1.26 ], [ "2012-01-01", 1.25 ], [ "2012-05-01", 1.27 ], [ "2012-08-01", 1.29 ], [ "2012-12-01", 1.29 ], [ "2013-03-01", 1.29 ], [ "2013-07-01", 1.29 ], [ "2013-10-01", 1.3 ], [ "2014-02-01", 1.31 ], [ "2014-05-01", 1.3 ], [ "2014-08-01", 1.31 ], [ "2014-12-01", 1.35 ], [ "2015-03-01", 1.38 ], [ "2015-07-01", 1.38 ], [ "2015-10-01", 1.41 ], [ "2016-02-01", 1.43 ], [ "2016-05-01", 1.43 ], [ "2016-08-01", 1.42 ], [ "2016-12-01", 1.39 ], [ "2017-03-01", 1.39 ], [ "2017-07-01", 1.4 ], [ "2017-10-01", 1.37 ], [ "2018-02-01", 1.37 ], [ "2018-05-01", 1.34 ], [ "2018-09-01", 1.36 ], [ "2018-12-01", 1.4 ], [ "2019-03-01", 1.4 ], [ "2019-07-01", 1.42 ], [ "2019-10-01", 1.44 ], [ "2020-02-01", 1.43 ], [ "2020-05-01", 1.56 ], [ "2020-09-01", 1.36 ], [ "2020-12-01", 1.34 ], [ "2021-04-01", 1.26 ], [ "2021-07-01", 1.27 ], [ "2021-10-01", 1.28 ], [ "2022-02-01", 1.31 ], [ "2022-05-01", 1.34 ], [ "2022-09-01", 1.39 ], [ "2022-12-01", 1.43 ], [ "2023-04-01", 1.42 ], [ "2023-07-01", 1.41 ], [ "2023-11-01", 1.4 ], [ "2024-02-01", 1.4 ], [ "2024-05-01", 1.41 ], [ "2024-09-01", 1.4 ], [ "2024-12-01", 1.39 ], [ "2025-04-01", 1.38 ], [ "2025-07-01", 1.37 ], [ "2025-11-01", 1.37 ], [ "2026-02-01", 1.33 ], [ "2026-05-01", 1.28 ] ], "key": "inventory_sales", "group": "realisierung", "group_label": "Realisierung und Absatz" }, "financial_profit_share": { "label": "Anteil des Finanzsektors an den Unternehmensgewinnen", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 23.12, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 317, "percentile": 66.6, "pressure": 66.6, "zscore": 0.44, "tau": 0.579, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2020-10-01", "change_10y": -1.02, "change_30y": 0.44, "note": "Wie viel des Gesamtgewinns nicht aus Produktion stammt, sondern aus der Umverteilung bestehender Anspr\u00fcche. Als Differenz von Gesamt- und Nichtfinanzgewinnen gerechnet, weil die direkte BEA-Reihe erst 2001 beginnt \u2014 so reicht die Reihe bis 1947.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED ((A445RC1Q027SBEA \u2212 A463RC1Q027SBEA) \u00f7 A445RC1Q027SBEA)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 8.4342 ], [ "1947-07-01", 7.0672 ], [ "1948-04-01", 7.9021 ], [ "1948-10-01", 9.068 ], [ "1949-07-01", 10.8446 ], [ "1950-04-01", 9.2273 ], [ "1950-10-01", 7.7064 ], [ "1951-07-01", 8.8113 ], [ "1952-04-01", 11.0679 ], [ "1952-10-01", 11.0572 ], [ "1953-07-01", 11.7995 ], [ "1954-04-01", 13.3645 ], [ "1954-10-01", 11.9605 ], [ "1955-07-01", 10.6441 ], [ "1956-01-01", 10.9636 ], [ "1956-10-01", 11.84 ], [ "1957-07-01", 12.5065 ], [ "1958-01-01", 16.2826 ], [ "1958-10-01", 13.2778 ], [ "1959-07-01", 14.8158 ], [ "1960-01-01", 14.7599 ], [ "1960-10-01", 17.0113 ], [ "1961-07-01", 14.9298 ], [ "1962-01-01", 13.9695 ], [ "1962-10-01", 13.4633 ], [ "1963-07-01", 11.9432 ], [ "1964-01-01", 11.7873 ], [ "1964-10-01", 11.9008 ], [ "1965-04-01", 10.5221 ], [ "1966-01-01", 11.3579 ], [ "1966-10-01", 11.547 ], [ "1967-04-01", 12.4389 ], [ "1968-01-01", 13.3494 ], [ "1968-10-01", 12.9961 ], [ "1969-04-01", 14.1518 ], [ "1970-01-01", 18.1287 ], [ "1970-10-01", 22.1005 ], [ "1971-04-01", 18.8414 ], [ "1972-01-01", 18.6054 ], [ "1972-10-01", 17.1222 ], [ "1973-04-01", 18.2859 ], [ "1974-01-01", 18.7352 ], [ "1974-07-01", 19.9758 ], [ "1975-04-01", 16.8625 ], [ "1976-01-01", 14.4476 ], [ "1976-07-01", 15.9677 ], [ "1977-04-01", 16.5061 ], [ "1978-01-01", 19.3966 ], [ "1978-07-01", 18.5715 ], [ "1979-04-01", 19.1302 ], [ "1980-01-01", 17.8416 ], [ "1980-07-01", 16.3856 ], [ "1981-04-01", 12.7942 ], [ "1982-01-01", 9.3081 ], [ "1982-07-01", 11.1749 ], [ "1983-04-01", 14.4561 ], [ "1983-10-01", 11.706 ], [ "1984-07-01", 10.1531 ], [ "1985-04-01", 13.8622 ], [ "1985-10-01", 15.2154 ], [ "1986-07-01", 19.3513 ], [ "1987-04-01", 20.0617 ], [ "1987-10-01", 19.6499 ], [ "1988-07-01", 19.2 ], [ "1989-04-01", 21.9494 ], [ "1989-10-01", 22.5723 ], [ "1990-07-01", 24.4008 ], [ "1991-01-01", 26.7982 ], [ "1991-10-01", 29.112 ], [ "1992-07-01", 29.6794 ], [ "1993-01-01", 25.5927 ], [ "1993-10-01", 24.5903 ], [ "1994-07-01", 22.7749 ], [ "1995-01-01", 22.6105 ], [ "1995-10-01", 22.1914 ], [ "1996-07-01", 22.4578 ], [ "1997-01-01", 23.2561 ], [ "1997-10-01", 24.4311 ], [ "1998-07-01", 22.4962 ], [ "1999-01-01", 24.7714 ], [ "1999-10-01", 28.0073 ], [ "2000-04-01", 27.2615 ], [ "2001-01-01", 34.9216 ], [ "2001-10-01", 42.8367 ], [ "2002-04-01", 39.2677 ], [ "2003-01-01", 36.5531 ], [ "2003-10-01", 34.2492 ], [ "2004-04-01", 31.852 ], [ "2005-01-01", 32.6964 ], [ "2005-10-01", 28.7253 ], [ "2006-04-01", 29.9253 ], [ "2007-01-01", 24.6308 ], [ "2007-10-01", 20.8471 ], [ "2008-04-01", 20.0747 ], [ "2009-01-01", 25.6138 ], [ "2009-07-01", 37.2117 ], [ "2010-04-01", 27.5312 ], [ "2011-01-01", 29.1705 ], [ "2011-07-01", 24.0162 ], [ "2012-04-01", 27.5713 ], [ "2013-01-01", 24.2323 ], [ "2013-07-01", 26.1646 ], [ "2014-04-01", 29.382 ], [ "2015-01-01", 27.0657 ], [ "2015-07-01", 23.5279 ], [ "2016-04-01", 27.7382 ], [ "2017-01-01", 26.4562 ], [ "2017-07-01", 28.0211 ], [ "2018-04-01", 24.9518 ], [ "2018-10-01", 25.6468 ], [ "2019-07-01", 27.1875 ], [ "2020-04-01", 26.8325 ], [ "2020-10-01", 23.129 ], [ "2021-07-01", 22.4312 ], [ "2022-04-01", 20.4825 ], [ "2022-10-01", 19.3856 ], [ "2023-07-01", 17.9601 ], [ "2024-04-01", 20.5413 ], [ "2024-10-01", 21.5336 ], [ "2025-07-01", 23.0137 ], [ "2026-01-01", 23.1167 ] ], "key": "financial_profit_share", "group": "finanzialisierung", "group_label": "Finanzialisierung" }, "total_debt_gdp": { "label": "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 256.7, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1946-10-01", "n": 303, "percentile": 92.7, "pressure": 92.7, "zscore": 1.56, "tau": 0.822, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2024-10-01", "change_10y": 5.7, "change_30y": 70.0, "note": "Alle Kreditmarktschulden der Volkswirtschaft. Der Kern der Fiat-Erweiterung: Was nicht durch L\u00f6hne nachgefragt werden kann, wird durch Kredit vorfinanziert \u2014 und dieser Kredit ist der Anspruch auf k\u00fcnftige Wertsch\u00f6pfung, die erst noch erbracht werden muss.", "source": "Fed Z.1 \u00fcber FRED (TCMDODNS \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1946-10-01", 141.4535 ], [ "1948-10-01", 131.6565 ], [ "1951-10-01", 121.946 ], [ "1952-04-01", 123.5169 ], [ "1953-01-01", 121.4032 ], [ "1953-07-01", 125.3613 ], [ "1954-04-01", 130.2441 ], [ "1954-10-01", 131.4644 ], [ "1955-07-01", 127.5431 ], [ "1956-01-01", 128.5954 ], [ "1956-10-01", 128.2863 ], [ "1957-04-01", 126.6687 ], [ "1958-01-01", 132.5666 ], [ "1958-07-01", 131.1985 ], [ "1959-04-01", 129.4838 ], [ "1959-10-01", 133.7656 ], [ "1960-07-01", 133.681 ], [ "1961-01-01", 136.6683 ], [ "1961-10-01", 135.8215 ], [ "1962-04-01", 134.9007 ], [ "1963-01-01", 136.7729 ], [ "1963-10-01", 137.7222 ], [ "1964-04-01", 136.5768 ], [ "1965-01-01", 136.0541 ], [ "1965-07-01", 134.541 ], [ "1966-04-01", 132.7328 ], [ "1966-10-01", 132.3329 ], [ "1967-07-01", 132.8191 ], [ "1968-01-01", 131.8296 ], [ "1968-10-01", 132.2705 ], [ "1969-04-01", 130.0747 ], [ "1970-01-01", 130.8092 ], [ "1970-07-01", 131.1941 ], [ "1971-04-01", 131.178 ], [ "1971-10-01", 134.3534 ], [ "1972-07-01", 132.174 ], [ "1973-01-01", 131.5168 ], [ "1973-10-01", 132.0699 ], [ "1974-04-01", 133.1615 ], [ "1975-01-01", 133.4868 ], [ "1975-10-01", 131.7003 ], [ "1976-04-01", 131.6824 ], [ "1977-01-01", 132.3323 ], [ "1977-07-01", 132.2668 ], [ "1978-04-01", 132.2547 ], [ "1978-10-01", 132.9678 ], [ "1979-07-01", 134.6161 ], [ "1980-01-01", 135.5196 ], [ "1980-10-01", 135.8049 ], [ "1981-04-01", 133.9149 ], [ "1982-01-01", 139.0079 ], [ "1982-07-01", 141.8494 ], [ "1983-04-01", 144.2562 ], [ "1983-10-01", 144.9559 ], [ "1984-07-01", 149.492 ], [ "1985-01-01", 154.805 ], [ "1985-10-01", 166.2774 ], [ "1986-04-01", 170.4405 ], [ "1987-01-01", 177.5625 ], [ "1987-07-01", 179.8206 ], [ "1988-04-01", 180.8131 ], [ "1989-01-01", 181.2432 ], [ "1989-07-01", 181.816 ], [ "1990-04-01", 183.6864 ], [ "1990-10-01", 188.1827 ], [ "1991-07-01", 187.6857 ], [ "1992-01-01", 187.6448 ], [ "1992-10-01", 185.2688 ], [ "1993-04-01", 186.3387 ], [ "1994-01-01", 186.2418 ], [ "1994-07-01", 185.0288 ], [ "1995-04-01", 186.6094 ], [ "1995-10-01", 186.4476 ], [ "1996-07-01", 185.0411 ], [ "1997-01-01", 184.6082 ], [ "1997-10-01", 184.1135 ], [ "1998-04-01", 185.9225 ], [ "1999-01-01", 186.6229 ], [ "1999-07-01", 186.8327 ], [ "2000-04-01", 184.1087 ], [ "2001-01-01", 186.177 ], [ "2001-07-01", 189.8544 ], [ "2002-04-01", 192.6189 ], [ "2002-10-01", 197.1284 ], [ "2003-07-01", 199.5859 ], [ "2004-01-01", 207.6549 ], [ "2004-10-01", 211.373 ], [ "2005-04-01", 212.9659 ], [ "2006-01-01", 216.7199 ], [ "2006-07-01", 220.4943 ], [ "2007-04-01", 224.9315 ], [ "2007-10-01", 229.298 ], [ "2008-07-01", 236.3788 ], [ "2009-01-01", 248.8309 ], [ "2009-10-01", 249.4483 ], [ "2010-04-01", 247.7536 ], [ "2011-01-01", 248.4779 ], [ "2011-07-01", 247.4132 ], [ "2012-04-01", 246.4174 ], [ "2012-10-01", 248.9385 ], [ "2013-07-01", 246.1748 ], [ "2014-04-01", 246.4006 ], [ "2014-10-01", 246.3752 ], [ "2015-07-01", 245.8429 ], [ "2016-01-01", 251.0374 ], [ "2016-10-01", 251.0918 ], [ "2017-04-01", 250.1107 ], [ "2018-01-01", 249.7855 ], [ "2018-07-01", 250.117 ], [ "2019-04-01", 250.4043 ], [ "2019-10-01", 251.9061 ], [ "2020-07-01", 281.0789 ], [ "2021-01-01", 277.2506 ], [ "2021-10-01", 268.1255 ], [ "2022-04-01", 265.4746 ], [ "2023-01-01", 260.533 ], [ "2023-07-01", 259.1353 ], [ "2024-04-01", 257.7321 ], [ "2024-10-01", 257.7852 ], [ "2025-07-01", 255.4607 ], [ "2026-01-01", 256.7061 ] ], "key": "total_debt_gdp", "group": "finanzialisierung", "group_label": "Finanzialisierung" }, "buffett_indicator": { "label": "Aktienmarktwert \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 218.1, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1946-10-01", "n": 303, "percentile": 99.0, "pressure": 99.0, "zscore": 2.88, "tau": 0.565, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2021-10-01", "change_10y": 84.5, "change_30y": 132.6, "note": "Marktwert der Unternehmensanteile gegen die reale Wertsch\u00f6pfung. Misst den Abstand zwischen dem, was Verm\u00f6genstitel versprechen, und dem, was die Produktion einl\u00f6sen kann. Aus den Flow-of-Funds-Daten statt aus einem Aktienindex gerechnet \u2014 reicht dadurch bis 1945 zur\u00fcck.", "source": "Fed Z.1 \u00fcber FRED (NCBEILQ027S \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1946-10-01", 40.015 ], [ "1948-10-01", 33.5779 ], [ "1951-10-01", 41.4481 ], [ "1952-04-01", 43.6548 ], [ "1953-01-01", 36.871 ], [ "1953-07-01", 33.048 ], [ "1954-04-01", 44.6881 ], [ "1954-10-01", 48.7424 ], [ "1955-07-01", 56.0166 ], [ "1956-01-01", 59.6583 ], [ "1956-10-01", 58.2833 ], [ "1957-04-01", 57.852 ], [ "1958-01-01", 55.8923 ], [ "1958-07-01", 63.9182 ], [ "1959-04-01", 66.287 ], [ "1959-10-01", 68.5125 ], [ "1960-07-01", 58.8861 ], [ "1961-01-01", 75.2916 ], [ "1961-10-01", 75.3815 ], [ "1962-04-01", 54.3972 ], [ "1963-01-01", 72.0607 ], [ "1963-10-01", 71.2268 ], [ "1964-04-01", 75.3077 ], [ "1965-01-01", 77.9941 ], [ "1965-07-01", 78.4612 ], [ "1966-04-01", 72.1818 ], [ "1966-10-01", 65.7494 ], [ "1967-07-01", 78.4284 ], [ "1968-01-01", 71.7774 ], [ "1968-10-01", 87.0996 ], [ "1969-04-01", 76.7562 ], [ "1970-01-01", 64.4743 ], [ "1970-07-01", 58.3533 ], [ "1971-04-01", 67.3425 ], [ "1971-10-01", 69.2296 ], [ "1972-07-01", 69.2494 ], [ "1973-01-01", 70.4752 ], [ "1973-10-01", 54.8379 ], [ "1974-04-01", 47.2811 ], [ "1975-01-01", 42.3853 ], [ "1975-10-01", 42.8473 ], [ "1976-04-01", 47.9261 ], [ "1977-01-01", 43.1002 ], [ "1977-07-01", 39.9018 ], [ "1978-04-01", 35.735 ], [ "1978-10-01", 34.5722 ], [ "1979-07-01", 36.7812 ], [ "1980-01-01", 34.2998 ], [ "1980-10-01", 45.1012 ], [ "1981-04-01", 41.6079 ], [ "1982-01-01", 33.3029 ], [ "1982-07-01", 34.839 ], [ "1983-04-01", 48.5272 ], [ "1983-10-01", 42.9681 ], [ "1984-07-01", 37.7851 ], [ "1985-01-01", 39.5137 ], [ "1985-10-01", 43.1501 ], [ "1986-04-01", 49.4006 ], [ "1987-01-01", 57.3754 ], [ "1987-07-01", 60.3038 ], [ "1988-04-01", 48.4793 ], [ "1989-01-01", 48.4582 ], [ "1989-07-01", 53.6852 ], [ "1990-04-01", 52.6214 ], [ "1990-10-01", 49.2444 ], [ "1991-07-01", 57.0103 ], [ "1992-01-01", 61.5158 ], [ "1992-10-01", 65.4002 ], [ "1993-04-01", 66.3133 ], [ "1994-01-01", 65.4719 ], [ "1994-07-01", 65.9327 ], [ "1995-04-01", 74.3055 ], [ "1995-10-01", 82.9836 ], [ "1996-07-01", 87.321 ], [ "1997-01-01", 89.1277 ], [ "1997-10-01", 107.5764 ], [ "1998-04-01", 122.4499 ], [ "1999-01-01", 129.1624 ], [ "1999-07-01", 131.1062 ], [ "2000-04-01", 152.3803 ], [ "2001-01-01", 112.7086 ], [ "2001-07-01", 100.1072 ], [ "2002-04-01", 95.6835 ], [ "2002-10-01", 83.7942 ], [ "2003-07-01", 93.0847 ], [ "2004-01-01", 103.4854 ], [ "2004-10-01", 107.9004 ], [ "2005-04-01", 106.3059 ], [ "2006-01-01", 112.0173 ], [ "2006-07-01", 109.2004 ], [ "2007-04-01", 120.7609 ], [ "2007-10-01", 114.9408 ], [ "2008-07-01", 92.7549 ], [ "2009-01-01", 69.0006 ], [ "2009-10-01", 93.3292 ], [ "2010-04-01", 85.2777 ], [ "2011-01-01", 107.9189 ], [ "2011-07-01", 90.6837 ], [ "2012-04-01", 102.0832 ], [ "2012-10-01", 106.4786 ], [ "2013-07-01", 124.3507 ], [ "2014-04-01", 139.9164 ], [ "2014-10-01", 141.3536 ], [ "2015-07-01", 126.5255 ], [ "2016-01-01", 133.6722 ], [ "2016-10-01", 135.4548 ], [ "2017-04-01", 142.4825 ], [ "2018-01-01", 146.3319 ], [ "2018-07-01", 156.5564 ], [ "2019-04-01", 152.4802 ], [ "2019-10-01", 159.8782 ], [ "2020-07-01", 175.6067 ], [ "2021-01-01", 205.9376 ], [ "2021-10-01", 218.6844 ], [ "2022-04-01", 163.7882 ], [ "2023-01-01", 166.8724 ], [ "2023-07-01", 167.1265 ], [ "2024-04-01", 199.5972 ], [ "2024-10-01", 210.2547 ], [ "2025-07-01", 225.9507 ], [ "2026-01-01", 218.1392 ] ], "key": "buffett_indicator", "group": "finanzialisierung", "group_label": "Finanzialisierung" }, "prod_wage_gap": { "label": "Produktivit\u00e4ts-Lohn-Schere", "pillar": "akkumulation", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "Index", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 109.9, "as_of": "2026-04-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 318, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 100.0, "zscore": 2.18, "tau": 0.875, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 10.0, "change_30y": 27.8, "note": "Arbeitsproduktivit\u00e4t geteilt durch reale Stundenverg\u00fctung, beide auf derselben Basis. Steigt der Wert, w\u00e4chst die Produktion pro Stunde schneller als das, was f\u00fcr diese Stunde gezahlt wird \u2014 bei Marx die Rate des Mehrwerts.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (OPHNFB \u00f7 COMPRNFB)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 64.724 ], [ "1947-07-01", 63.1565 ], [ "1948-04-01", 66.2392 ], [ "1948-10-01", 65.1167 ], [ "1949-07-01", 66.0806 ], [ "1950-04-01", 65.9903 ], [ "1950-10-01", 67.1185 ], [ "1951-07-01", 67.9445 ], [ "1952-04-01", 67.2901 ], [ "1952-10-01", 66.4018 ], [ "1953-07-01", 65.5471 ], [ "1954-04-01", 64.8193 ], [ "1954-10-01", 65.1862 ], [ "1955-07-01", 64.8297 ], [ "1956-04-01", 61.9981 ], [ "1956-10-01", 61.8322 ], [ "1957-07-01", 62.4308 ], [ "1958-04-01", 63.022 ], [ "1958-10-01", 63.5907 ], [ "1959-07-01", 63.3894 ], [ "1960-04-01", 62.13 ], [ "1960-10-01", 61.4878 ], [ "1961-07-01", 63.4233 ], [ "1962-01-01", 63.8655 ], [ "1962-10-01", 64.2562 ], [ "1963-07-01", 65.6056 ], [ "1964-01-01", 65.8828 ], [ "1964-10-01", 64.7721 ], [ "1965-07-01", 66.7464 ], [ "1966-01-01", 67.6398 ], [ "1966-10-01", 66.6245 ], [ "1967-07-01", 66.1215 ], [ "1968-01-01", 66.4924 ], [ "1968-10-01", 65.8839 ], [ "1969-07-01", 65.553 ], [ "1970-01-01", 65.0485 ], [ "1970-10-01", 66.2366 ], [ "1971-07-01", 67.5896 ], [ "1972-01-01", 66.7801 ], [ "1972-10-01", 67.7761 ], [ "1973-07-01", 68.6031 ], [ "1974-01-01", 68.8256 ], [ "1974-10-01", 68.6991 ], [ "1975-04-01", 69.1081 ], [ "1976-01-01", 70.8257 ], [ "1976-10-01", 70.3409 ], [ "1977-04-01", 70.8332 ], [ "1978-01-01", 69.3841 ], [ "1978-10-01", 71.1535 ], [ "1979-04-01", 70.4703 ], [ "1980-01-01", 71.1813 ], [ "1980-10-01", 70.9735 ], [ "1981-04-01", 71.4255 ], [ "1982-01-01", 69.9283 ], [ "1982-10-01", 70.7639 ], [ "1983-04-01", 73.1527 ], [ "1984-01-01", 74.4087 ], [ "1984-10-01", 74.6391 ], [ "1985-04-01", 74.7609 ], [ "1986-01-01", 74.8556 ], [ "1986-10-01", 73.3434 ], [ "1987-04-01", 74.2498 ], [ "1988-01-01", 74.1621 ], [ "1988-07-01", 74.3427 ], [ "1989-04-01", 76.2726 ], [ "1990-01-01", 76.5448 ], [ "1990-07-01", 76.7811 ], [ "1991-04-01", 76.9182 ], [ "1992-01-01", 76.9613 ], [ "1992-07-01", 77.7149 ], [ "1993-04-01", 78.1759 ], [ "1994-01-01", 79.9815 ], [ "1994-07-01", 79.9946 ], [ "1995-04-01", 80.9808 ], [ "1996-01-01", 81.3311 ], [ "1996-07-01", 82.1612 ], [ "1997-04-01", 82.4226 ], [ "1998-01-01", 81.4668 ], [ "1998-07-01", 81.2406 ], [ "1999-04-01", 82.2816 ], [ "2000-01-01", 80.7973 ], [ "2000-07-01", 81.9488 ], [ "2001-04-01", 83.0708 ], [ "2001-10-01", 83.8652 ], [ "2002-07-01", 86.2655 ], [ "2003-04-01", 87.164 ], [ "2003-10-01", 88.3497 ], [ "2004-07-01", 88.2961 ], [ "2005-04-01", 90.0991 ], [ "2005-10-01", 91.2095 ], [ "2006-07-01", 91.6051 ], [ "2007-04-01", 90.894 ], [ "2007-10-01", 92.5978 ], [ "2008-07-01", 94.9533 ], [ "2009-04-01", 94.2102 ], [ "2009-10-01", 97.3724 ], [ "2010-07-01", 98.0385 ], [ "2011-04-01", 99.3386 ], [ "2011-10-01", 101.4401 ], [ "2012-07-01", 100.536 ], [ "2013-04-01", 99.7004 ], [ "2013-10-01", 101.7348 ], [ "2014-07-01", 101.9702 ], [ "2015-01-01", 99.0856 ], [ "2015-10-01", 99.0128 ], [ "2016-07-01", 100.1839 ], [ "2017-01-01", 100.2824 ], [ "2017-10-01", 100.0307 ], [ "2018-07-01", 100.3781 ], [ "2019-01-01", 99.0189 ], [ "2019-10-01", 101.7119 ], [ "2020-07-01", 101.7022 ], [ "2021-01-01", 100.7543 ], [ "2021-10-01", 102.2488 ], [ "2022-07-01", 103.8583 ], [ "2023-01-01", 105.7771 ], [ "2023-10-01", 106.9426 ], [ "2024-07-01", 106.9644 ], [ "2025-01-01", 106.1408 ], [ "2025-10-01", 108.0227 ], [ "2026-04-01", 109.8695 ] ], "key": "prod_wage_gap", "group": "profit", "group_label": "Profitabilit\u00e4t" }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "label": "Dollar-Anteil an den Weltw\u00e4hrungsreserven", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.6, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 57.13, "as_of": "2026-03-01", "start": "1999-03-01", "n": 109, "percentile": 3.7, "pressure": 96.3, "zscore": 1.74, "tau": -0.71, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -6.8, "change_30y": null, "note": "Die h\u00e4rteste \u00f6ffentlich verf\u00fcgbare Zahl zur Frage der Dollarhegemonie: welchen Anteil ihrer zugeordneten Devisenreserven die Zentralbanken der Welt im Dollar halten. Zu beachten: Der IWF hat im Dezember 2025 den nicht zugeordneten Anteil r\u00fcckwirkend herausgerechnet, Vergleiche mit \u00e4lteren Ver\u00f6ffentlichungen sind daher nicht deckungsgleich.", "source": "IWF COFER (SDMX-Schnittstelle, ab 1999)", "spark": [ [ "1999-03-01", 71.1889 ], [ "1999-06-01", 72.1259 ], [ "1999-09-01", 70.6848 ], [ "1999-12-01", 71.0139 ], [ "2000-03-01", 70.7966 ], [ "2000-06-01", 70.6757 ], [ "2000-09-01", 70.6432 ], [ "2000-12-01", 69.7403 ], [ "2001-03-01", 70.6501 ], [ "2001-06-01", 71.4003 ], [ "2001-09-01", 70.7634 ], [ "2001-12-01", 70.7837 ], [ "2002-03-01", 70.5138 ], [ "2002-06-01", 67.8056 ], [ "2002-09-01", 66.6937 ], [ "2002-12-01", 64.9392 ], [ "2003-03-01", 64.6162 ], [ "2003-06-01", 64.6519 ], [ "2003-09-01", 64.9082 ], [ "2003-12-01", 63.5349 ], [ "2004-03-01", 64.6672 ], [ "2004-06-01", 64.8549 ], [ "2004-09-01", 64.4403 ], [ "2004-12-01", 63.3229 ], [ "2005-03-01", 64.2052 ], [ "2005-06-01", 64.6829 ], [ "2005-09-01", 65.0115 ], [ "2005-12-01", 64.888 ], [ "2006-03-01", 64.8836 ], [ "2006-06-01", 64.1111 ], [ "2006-09-01", 64.5902 ], [ "2006-12-01", 63.6673 ], [ "2007-03-01", 63.6562 ], [ "2007-06-01", 63.3986 ], [ "2007-09-01", 62.7131 ], [ "2007-12-01", 62.6016 ], [ "2008-03-01", 63.0561 ], [ "2008-06-01", 62.696 ], [ "2008-09-01", 63.9349 ], [ "2008-12-01", 62.8681 ], [ "2009-03-01", 63.8025 ], [ "2009-06-01", 62.3523 ], [ "2009-09-01", 61.3198 ], [ "2009-12-01", 62.1878 ], [ "2010-03-01", 61.7866 ], [ "2010-06-01", 62.5629 ], [ "2010-09-01", 61.8217 ], [ "2010-12-01", 61.9359 ], [ "2011-03-01", 61.8158 ], [ "2011-06-01", 61.5511 ], [ "2011-09-01", 62.2451 ], [ "2011-12-01", 62.5146 ], [ "2012-03-01", 61.8726 ], [ "2012-06-01", 62.1503 ], [ "2012-09-01", 61.805 ], [ "2012-12-01", 61.8442 ], [ "2013-03-01", 62.0794 ], [ "2013-06-01", 62.0375 ], [ "2013-09-01", 61.7421 ], [ "2013-12-01", 61.7164 ], [ "2014-03-01", 61.3171 ], [ "2014-06-01", 61.3453 ], [ "2014-09-01", 62.3857 ], [ "2014-12-01", 62.6819 ], [ "2015-03-01", 63.5494 ], [ "2015-06-01", 63.472 ], [ "2015-09-01", 64.2371 ], [ "2015-12-01", 64.154 ], [ "2016-03-01", 63.9292 ], [ "2016-06-01", 64.0053 ], [ "2016-09-01", 63.7929 ], [ "2016-12-01", 64.68 ], [ "2017-03-01", 64.2195 ], [ "2017-06-01", 63.5143 ], [ "2017-09-01", 63.3105 ], [ "2017-12-01", 62.7073 ], [ "2018-03-01", 62.8976 ], [ "2018-06-01", 62.6152 ], [ "2018-09-01", 62.349 ], [ "2018-12-01", 62.065 ], [ "2019-03-01", 62.2066 ], [ "2019-06-01", 61.7317 ], [ "2019-09-01", 62.0501 ], [ "2019-12-01", 61.3203 ], [ "2020-03-01", 62.3212 ], [ "2020-06-01", 61.8753 ], [ "2020-09-01", 61.0066 ], [ "2020-12-01", 59.5283 ], [ "2021-03-01", 60.0629 ], [ "2021-06-01", 59.846 ], [ "2021-09-01", 59.8715 ], [ "2021-12-01", 59.4025 ], [ "2022-03-01", 59.4175 ], [ "2022-06-01", 59.9952 ], [ "2022-09-01", 60.4334 ], [ "2022-12-01", 58.9518 ], [ "2023-03-01", 60.1231 ], [ "2023-06-01", 59.8181 ], [ "2023-09-01", 59.6898 ], [ "2023-12-01", 58.9796 ], [ "2024-03-01", 59.5114 ], [ "2024-06-01", 58.864 ], [ "2024-09-01", 57.8442 ], [ "2024-12-01", 58.4082 ], [ "2025-03-01", 58.3839 ], [ "2025-06-01", 56.9427 ], [ "2025-09-01", 56.6023 ], [ "2025-12-01", 56.4173 ], [ "2026-03-01", 57.1308 ] ], "key": "dollar_reserve_share", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "foreign_holdings": { "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 24.07, "as_of": "2025-10-01", "start": "1970-01-01", "n": 224, "percentile": 67.4, "pressure": 32.6, "zscore": -0.53, "tau": 0.682, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2024-04-01", "change_10y": -8.4, "change_30y": 7.33, "note": "Wie viel der US-Staatsschuld das Ausland finanziert. Ein fallender Anteil hei\u00dft: Die Schuld muss zunehmend im Inland und von der Notenbank untergebracht werden.", "source": "Treasury/Fed \u00fcber FRED (FDHBFIN \u00f7 GFDEBTN)", "spark": [ [ "1970-01-01", 3.3333 ], [ "1970-04-01", 3.7828 ], [ "1970-10-01", 5.0622 ], [ "1971-04-01", 8.0039 ], [ "1971-10-01", 10.8457 ], [ "1972-04-01", 11.5375 ], [ "1972-10-01", 12.1301 ], [ "1973-04-01", 12.9888 ], [ "1973-07-01", 12.5268 ], [ "1974-01-01", 11.4213 ], [ "1974-07-01", 11.6311 ], [ "1975-01-01", 12.7536 ], [ "1975-07-01", 11.8306 ], [ "1976-01-01", 11.3407 ], [ "1976-07-01", 11.7536 ], [ "1977-01-01", 12.6568 ], [ "1977-04-01", 13.0333 ], [ "1977-10-01", 15.2446 ], [ "1978-04-01", 15.9541 ], [ "1978-10-01", 16.865 ], [ "1979-04-01", 14.8463 ], [ "1979-10-01", 14.0809 ], [ "1980-04-01", 13.4683 ], [ "1980-07-01", 13.738 ], [ "1981-01-01", 14.3282 ], [ "1981-07-01", 13.0981 ], [ "1982-01-01", 12.8239 ], [ "1982-07-01", 12.3114 ], [ "1983-01-01", 12.5513 ], [ "1983-07-01", 11.6249 ], [ "1984-01-01", 11.3613 ], [ "1984-04-01", 11.344 ], [ "1984-10-01", 11.5998 ], [ "1985-04-01", 12.0475 ], [ "1985-10-01", 11.5522 ], [ "1986-04-01", 12.1835 ], [ "1986-10-01", 11.8925 ], [ "1987-04-01", 12.1725 ], [ "1987-07-01", 11.8922 ], [ "1988-01-01", 13.3666 ], [ "1988-07-01", 13.2927 ], [ "1989-01-01", 13.6269 ], [ "1989-07-01", 13.7116 ], [ "1990-01-01", 14.5939 ], [ "1990-07-01", 14.3444 ], [ "1991-01-01", 14.1984 ], [ "1991-04-01", 14.1889 ], [ "1991-10-01", 13.7018 ], [ "1992-04-01", 14.0087 ], [ "1992-10-01", 13.8065 ], [ "1993-04-01", 13.7134 ], [ "1993-10-01", 14.3374 ], [ "1994-04-01", 14.2042 ], [ "1994-07-01", 14.5331 ], [ "1995-01-01", 14.535 ], [ "1995-07-01", 16.4938 ], [ "1996-01-01", 17.744 ], [ "1996-07-01", 19.0131 ], [ "1997-01-01", 21.5132 ], [ "1997-07-01", 22.7317 ], [ "1998-01-01", 22.5623 ], [ "1998-04-01", 22.6391 ], [ "1998-10-01", 22.7761 ], [ "1999-04-01", 22.324 ], [ "1999-10-01", 21.9647 ], [ "2000-04-01", 18.6548 ], [ "2000-10-01", 17.9294 ], [ "2001-04-01", 17.1701 ], [ "2001-07-01", 17.0849 ], [ "2002-01-01", 17.6023 ], [ "2002-07-01", 19.0841 ], [ "2003-01-01", 19.7376 ], [ "2003-07-01", 21.2772 ], [ "2004-01-01", 23.4187 ], [ "2004-07-01", 24.3188 ], [ "2005-01-01", 25.0998 ], [ "2005-04-01", 23.9648 ], [ "2005-10-01", 24.8947 ], [ "2006-04-01", 23.4892 ], [ "2006-10-01", 24.2286 ], [ "2007-04-01", 24.719 ], [ "2007-10-01", 25.4974 ], [ "2008-04-01", 27.2587 ], [ "2008-07-01", 27.9549 ], [ "2009-01-01", 29.3495 ], [ "2009-07-01", 29.9803 ], [ "2010-01-01", 30.3598 ], [ "2010-07-01", 31.8856 ], [ "2011-01-01", 31.4041 ], [ "2011-07-01", 33.2115 ], [ "2012-01-01", 32.9676 ], [ "2012-04-01", 33.4966 ], [ "2012-10-01", 33.9189 ], [ "2013-04-01", 33.4263 ], [ "2013-10-01", 33.764 ], [ "2014-04-01", 34.1339 ], [ "2014-10-01", 33.9427 ], [ "2015-04-01", 33.9412 ], [ "2015-07-01", 33.6297 ], [ "2016-01-01", 32.6209 ], [ "2016-07-01", 31.4503 ], [ "2017-01-01", 30.6116 ], [ "2017-07-01", 31.1283 ], [ "2018-01-01", 29.5093 ], [ "2018-07-01", 28.9361 ], [ "2019-01-01", 29.39 ], [ "2019-04-01", 30.0859 ], [ "2019-10-01", 29.4991 ], [ "2020-04-01", 26.6346 ], [ "2020-10-01", 25.482 ], [ "2021-04-01", 26.3549 ], [ "2021-10-01", 26.1348 ], [ "2022-04-01", 24.2631 ], [ "2022-07-01", 23.4457 ], [ "2023-01-01", 23.7412 ], [ "2023-07-01", 22.64 ], [ "2024-01-01", 23.4424 ], [ "2024-07-01", 24.7184 ], [ "2025-01-01", 25.0017 ], [ "2025-07-01", 24.5351 ], [ "2025-10-01", 24.0715 ] ], "key": "foreign_holdings", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "fed_monetization": { "label": "Notenbankanteil an der Staatsschuld", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.1, "unit": "%", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 11.6, "as_of": "2026-08-05", "start": "2002-12-18", "n": 1234, "percentile": 58.9, "pressure": 58.9, "zscore": 0.14, "tau": 0.419, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2025-05-14", "change_10y": -0.99, "change_30y": null, "note": "Welchen Teil der eigenen Staatsschuld die Zentralbank h\u00e4lt. Der Kern der Fiat-Frage: Wo dieser Anteil steigt, w\u00e4hrend der Auslandsanteil f\u00e4llt, finanziert sich der Staat zunehmend bei sich selbst.", "source": "Fed \u00fcber FRED (TREAST \u00f7 GFDEBTN)", "spark": [ [ "2002-12-18", 9.7418 ], [ "2003-02-26", 9.535 ], [ "2003-05-07", 9.7085 ], [ "2003-07-16", 9.622 ], [ "2003-10-01", 9.3768 ], [ "2003-12-10", 9.3339 ], [ "2004-02-18", 9.2213 ], [ "2004-04-28", 9.2982 ], [ "2004-07-14", 9.355 ], [ "2004-09-22", 9.191 ], [ "2004-12-01", 9.1667 ], [ "2005-02-16", 9.1605 ], [ "2005-04-27", 9.1704 ], [ "2005-07-06", 9.1358 ], [ "2005-09-14", 8.9747 ], [ "2005-11-30", 8.8897 ], [ "2006-02-08", 8.9453 ], [ "2006-04-19", 9.0092 ], [ "2006-07-05", 9.0089 ], [ "2006-09-13", 8.8578 ], [ "2006-11-22", 8.7221 ], [ "2007-01-31", 8.801 ], [ "2007-04-18", 8.8282 ], [ "2007-06-27", 8.7758 ], [ "2007-09-05", 8.4476 ], [ "2007-11-21", 8.2613 ], [ "2008-01-30", 7.6118 ], [ "2008-04-09", 5.9009 ], [ "2008-06-18", 4.7755 ], [ "2008-09-03", 4.4835 ], [ "2008-11-12", 4.4528 ], [ "2009-01-21", 4.2718 ], [ "2009-04-08", 4.4037 ], [ "2009-06-17", 5.3625 ], [ "2009-08-26", 6.0503 ], [ "2009-11-04", 6.3073 ], [ "2010-01-20", 6.08 ], [ "2010-03-31", 5.8833 ], [ "2010-06-09", 5.7289 ], [ "2010-08-25", 5.5935 ], [ "2010-11-03", 6.0035 ], [ "2011-01-12", 7.4426 ], [ "2011-03-23", 9.1001 ], [ "2011-06-08", 10.5113 ], [ "2011-08-17", 10.8234 ], [ "2011-10-26", 11.0229 ], [ "2012-01-11", 10.5779 ], [ "2012-03-21", 10.4918 ], [ "2012-05-30", 10.3115 ], [ "2012-08-08", 10.285 ], [ "2012-10-24", 10.0198 ], [ "2013-01-02", 9.9343 ], [ "2013-03-13", 10.5745 ], [ "2013-05-29", 11.2531 ], [ "2013-08-07", 11.9092 ], [ "2013-10-16", 12.2116 ], [ "2013-12-25", 12.5493 ], [ "2014-03-12", 13.021 ], [ "2014-05-21", 13.2811 ], [ "2014-07-30", 13.5787 ], [ "2014-10-15", 13.5345 ], [ "2014-12-24", 13.56 ], [ "2015-03-04", 13.5524 ], [ "2015-05-13", 13.5541 ], [ "2015-07-29", 13.5615 ], [ "2015-10-07", 13.0107 ], [ "2015-12-16", 12.7775 ], [ "2016-02-24", 12.6987 ], [ "2016-05-11", 12.7007 ], [ "2016-07-20", 12.5816 ], [ "2016-09-28", 12.3316 ], [ "2016-12-14", 12.413 ], [ "2017-02-22", 12.4138 ], [ "2017-05-03", 12.4205 ], [ "2017-07-12", 12.1765 ], [ "2017-09-27", 12.0307 ], [ "2017-12-06", 11.6383 ], [ "2018-02-14", 11.5515 ], [ "2018-05-02", 11.302 ], [ "2018-07-11", 10.9709 ], [ "2018-09-19", 10.527 ], [ "2018-11-28", 10.2285 ], [ "2019-02-13", 10.0128 ], [ "2019-04-24", 9.7785 ], [ "2019-07-03", 9.2229 ], [ "2019-09-18", 9.0763 ], [ "2019-11-27", 9.6819 ], [ "2020-02-05", 10.4543 ], [ "2020-04-15", 14.3099 ], [ "2020-07-01", 15.6361 ], [ "2020-09-09", 15.8341 ], [ "2020-11-18", 16.2958 ], [ "2021-02-03", 16.9628 ], [ "2021-04-14", 17.4329 ], [ "2021-06-23", 18.1626 ], [ "2021-09-01", 18.1167 ], [ "2021-11-17", 18.3334 ], [ "2022-01-26", 18.8028 ], [ "2022-04-06", 18.8463 ], [ "2022-06-22", 18.6342 ], [ "2022-08-31", 18.1256 ], [ "2022-11-09", 17.7444 ], [ "2023-01-18", 17.2822 ], [ "2023-04-05", 16.3313 ], [ "2023-06-14", 15.5582 ], [ "2023-08-23", 14.7243 ], [ "2023-11-08", 14.3315 ], [ "2024-01-17", 13.6586 ], [ "2024-03-27", 13.2583 ], [ "2024-06-05", 12.5794 ], [ "2024-08-21", 12.145 ], [ "2024-10-30", 12.032 ], [ "2025-01-08", 11.8491 ], [ "2025-03-26", 11.7019 ], [ "2025-06-04", 11.1912 ], [ "2025-08-13", 11.1719 ], [ "2025-10-22", 10.8959 ], [ "2026-01-07", 10.8421 ], [ "2026-03-18", 11.1572 ], [ "2026-05-27", 11.4216 ], [ "2026-08-05", 11.5958 ] ], "key": "fed_monetization", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "purchasing_power": { "label": "Kaufkraft des Dollars (1913 = 100)", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.8, "unit": "Index", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 2.93, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1913-01-01", "n": 1362, "percentile": 0.2, "pressure": 99.8, "zscore": 1.06, "tau": -0.927, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -1.14, "change_30y": -3.31, "note": "Kehrwert des Verbraucherpreisindex seit Gr\u00fcndung der Federal Reserve. Methodisch ehrlich anzumerken: Diese Reihe f\u00e4llt per Konstruktion monoton und ist deshalb als Alarmsignal wertlos \u2014 sie steht hier als Ma\u00dfstab, nicht als Warnung.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (CPIAUCNS, ab 1913)", "spark": [ [ "1913-01-01", 100.0 ], [ "1913-12-01", 98.0 ], [ "1914-11-01", 96.0784 ], [ "1915-11-01", 95.1456 ], [ "1916-10-01", 86.7257 ], [ "1917-09-01", 73.6842 ], [ "1918-09-01", 62.4204 ], [ "1919-08-01", 55.3672 ], [ "1920-07-01", 47.1154 ], [ "1921-07-01", 55.3672 ], [ "1922-06-01", 58.6826 ], [ "1923-05-01", 57.9882 ], [ "1924-05-01", 57.6471 ], [ "1925-04-01", 56.9767 ], [ "1926-03-01", 55.0562 ], [ "1927-03-01", 56.6474 ], [ "1928-02-01", 57.3099 ], [ "1929-01-01", 57.3099 ], [ "1930-01-01", 57.3099 ], [ "1930-12-01", 60.8696 ], [ "1931-12-01", 67.1233 ], [ "1932-11-01", 74.2424 ], [ "1933-10-01", 74.2424 ], [ "1934-10-01", 72.5926 ], [ "1935-09-01", 71.5328 ], [ "1936-08-01", 70.0 ], [ "1937-08-01", 67.5862 ], [ "1938-07-01", 69.5035 ], [ "1939-06-01", 71.0145 ], [ "1940-06-01", 69.5035 ], [ "1941-05-01", 68.0556 ], [ "1942-04-01", 60.8696 ], [ "1943-04-01", 56.3218 ], [ "1944-03-01", 56.3218 ], [ "1945-02-01", 55.0562 ], [ "1946-02-01", 54.1436 ], [ "1947-01-01", 45.5814 ], [ "1947-12-01", 41.8803 ], [ "1948-12-01", 40.6639 ], [ "1949-11-01", 41.1765 ], [ "1950-11-01", 39.6761 ], [ "1951-10-01", 37.4046 ], [ "1952-09-01", 36.7041 ], [ "1953-09-01", 36.4312 ], [ "1954-08-01", 36.4312 ], [ "1955-07-01", 36.5672 ], [ "1956-07-01", 35.7664 ], [ "1957-06-01", 34.8754 ], [ "1958-05-01", 33.91 ], [ "1959-05-01", 33.7931 ], [ "1960-04-01", 33.2203 ], [ "1961-03-01", 32.8859 ], [ "1962-03-01", 32.5581 ], [ "1963-02-01", 32.2368 ], [ "1964-01-01", 31.7152 ], [ "1965-01-01", 31.4103 ], [ "1965-12-01", 30.8176 ], [ "1966-11-01", 29.7872 ], [ "1967-11-01", 28.9941 ], [ "1968-10-01", 27.762 ], [ "1969-10-01", 26.2735 ], [ "1970-09-01", 25.0 ], [ "1971-08-01", 24.0196 ], [ "1972-08-01", 23.3333 ], [ "1973-07-01", 22.1219 ], [ "1974-06-01", 20.0 ], [ "1975-06-01", 18.2836 ], [ "1976-05-01", 17.3451 ], [ "1977-04-01", 16.3333 ], [ "1978-04-01", 15.3365 ], [ "1979-03-01", 14.0401 ], [ "1980-02-01", 12.4208 ], [ "1981-02-01", 11.149 ], [ "1982-01-01", 10.3924 ], [ "1982-12-01", 10.041 ], [ "1983-12-01", 9.6742 ], [ "1984-11-01", 9.3067 ], [ "1985-10-01", 9.0156 ], [ "1986-10-01", 8.8849 ], [ "1987-09-01", 8.5217 ], [ "1988-09-01", 8.1803 ], [ "1989-08-01", 7.8652 ], [ "1990-07-01", 7.5153 ], [ "1991-07-01", 7.1953 ], [ "1992-06-01", 6.99 ], [ "1993-05-01", 6.7961 ], [ "1994-05-01", 6.6441 ], [ "1995-04-01", 6.4516 ], [ "1996-03-01", 6.2942 ], [ "1997-03-01", 6.125 ], [ "1998-02-01", 6.0531 ], [ "1999-01-01", 5.9647 ], [ "2000-01-01", 5.8057 ], [ "2000-12-01", 5.6322 ], [ "2001-11-01", 5.5242 ], [ "2002-11-01", 5.4054 ], [ "2003-10-01", 5.2973 ], [ "2004-09-01", 5.1606 ], [ "2005-09-01", 4.9296 ], [ "2006-08-01", 4.8063 ], [ "2007-08-01", 4.7134 ], [ "2008-07-01", 4.4553 ], [ "2009-06-01", 4.5435 ], [ "2010-06-01", 4.4961 ], [ "2011-05-01", 4.337 ], [ "2012-04-01", 4.2593 ], [ "2013-04-01", 4.2145 ], [ "2014-03-01", 4.1474 ], [ "2015-02-01", 4.1752 ], [ "2016-02-01", 4.1331 ], [ "2017-01-01", 4.0356 ], [ "2017-12-01", 3.9753 ], [ "2018-12-01", 3.9008 ], [ "2019-11-01", 3.8101 ], [ "2020-10-01", 3.7636 ], [ "2021-10-01", 3.5432 ], [ "2022-09-01", 3.3018 ], [ "2023-08-01", 3.1919 ], [ "2024-08-01", 3.1131 ], [ "2025-07-01", 3.0336 ], [ "2026-07-01", 2.9349 ] ], "key": "purchasing_power", "group": "geldwert", "group_label": "Geldwert" }, "gold_real": { "label": "Realer Goldpreis", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "USD, heutige Preise", "danger": "high", "decimals": 0, "raw": 4427.0, "as_of": "2026-08-12", "start": "1968-04-01", "n": 14660, "percentile": 99.3, "pressure": 99.3, "zscore": 4.1, "tau": 0.417, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 2556.0, "change_30y": 3607.0, "note": "Goldpreis in heutiger Kaufkraft. Gold zahlt keine Zinsen und produziert nichts; ein hoher realer Preis ist der Preis, den Anleger daf\u00fcr zahlen, Verm\u00f6gen au\u00dferhalb jedes Schuldversprechens zu halten \u2014 das Misstrauensvotum gegen die Fiat-Ordnung in Zahlen.", "source": "LBMA-Nachmittagsfixing (ab 1968), deflationiert mit CPIAUCSL", "spark": [ [ "1968-04-01", 364.7398 ], [ "1968-09-24", 381.3679 ], [ "1969-03-19", 395.1581 ], [ "1969-09-11", 367.1708 ], [ "1970-03-06", 303.7027 ], [ "1970-08-28", 303.9466 ], [ "1971-02-23", 322.7454 ], [ "1971-08-18", 351.9824 ], [ "1972-02-09", 386.674 ], [ "1972-08-02", 556.0122 ], [ "1973-01-25", 507.7333 ], [ "1973-07-19", 844.9752 ], [ "1974-01-15", 892.4793 ], [ "1974-07-09", 982.2372 ], [ "1975-01-02", 1113.619 ], [ "1975-06-26", 1010.7654 ], [ "1975-12-16", 830.8353 ], [ "1976-06-14", 738.4105 ], [ "1976-12-03", 746.8347 ], [ "1977-06-01", 791.3248 ], [ "1977-11-23", 850.997 ], [ "1978-05-23", 920.3559 ], [ "1978-11-13", 1026.0502 ], [ "1979-05-10", 1175.7994 ], [ "1979-11-01", 1657.4963 ], [ "1980-05-01", 1996.0633 ], [ "1980-10-23", 2466.9375 ], [ "1981-04-23", 1812.4766 ], [ "1981-10-16", 1581.2181 ], [ "1982-04-15", 1272.5718 ], [ "1982-10-08", 1468.9911 ], [ "1983-04-07", 1434.1613 ], [ "1983-09-29", 1349.5765 ], [ "1984-03-26", 1248.1293 ], [ "1984-09-19", 1076.6548 ], [ "1985-03-15", 912.1195 ], [ "1985-09-11", 987.5094 ], [ "1986-03-06", 1050.9081 ], [ "1986-09-01", 1185.2681 ], [ "1987-02-25", 1203.7033 ], [ "1987-08-20", 1323.4177 ], [ "1988-02-16", 1271.26 ], [ "1988-08-11", 1196.8683 ], [ "1989-02-07", 1070.1471 ], [ "1989-08-02", 988.4145 ], [ "1990-01-29", 1088.7925 ], [ "1990-07-24", 932.4328 ], [ "1991-01-18", 933.8762 ], [ "1991-07-16", 900.9409 ], [ "1992-01-10", 861.271 ], [ "1992-07-06", 821.0177 ], [ "1992-12-29", 774.9322 ], [ "1993-06-25", 866.2351 ], [ "1993-12-15", 877.1886 ], [ "1994-06-17", 869.8216 ], [ "1994-12-07", 835.9127 ], [ "1995-06-08", 840.8769 ], [ "1995-11-28", 841.007 ], [ "1996-05-29", 830.4396 ], [ "1996-11-18", 793.0195 ], [ "1997-05-20", 712.5771 ], [ "1997-11-10", 639.5896 ], [ "1998-05-11", 611.7946 ], [ "1998-10-30", 592.8168 ], [ "1999-04-29", 567.386 ], [ "1999-10-21", 598.5298 ], [ "2000-04-18", 546.4587 ], [ "2000-10-12", 524.3862 ], [ "2001-04-09", 488.654 ], [ "2001-10-03", 543.632 ], [ "2002-04-02", 564.2786 ], [ "2002-09-25", 597.2083 ], [ "2003-03-24", 598.5002 ], [ "2003-09-17", 673.6358 ], [ "2004-03-12", 707.9614 ], [ "2004-09-07", 698.0656 ], [ "2005-03-03", 741.4612 ], [ "2005-08-26", 731.1674 ], [ "2006-02-23", 918.6105 ], [ "2006-08-18", 1007.465 ], [ "2007-02-14", 1089.0008 ], [ "2007-08-09", 1061.9015 ], [ "2008-02-05", 1388.7616 ], [ "2008-07-30", 1365.8588 ], [ "2009-01-27", 1404.2908 ], [ "2009-07-22", 1464.8283 ], [ "2010-01-18", 1737.7329 ], [ "2010-07-13", 1859.7946 ], [ "2011-01-07", 2056.8812 ], [ "2011-07-05", 2229.6308 ], [ "2011-12-29", 2236.3599 ], [ "2012-06-27", 2290.9194 ], [ "2012-12-17", 2435.9896 ], [ "2013-06-18", 1953.0793 ], [ "2013-12-06", 1748.2966 ], [ "2014-06-09", 1758.5438 ], [ "2014-11-28", 1666.164 ], [ "2015-06-01", 1680.3306 ], [ "2015-11-19", 1515.4014 ], [ "2016-05-19", 1726.6037 ], [ "2016-11-09", 1762.0693 ], [ "2017-05-10", 1668.0614 ], [ "2017-11-01", 1718.7478 ], [ "2018-05-01", 1734.5843 ], [ "2018-10-23", 1628.464 ], [ "2019-04-18", 1663.0482 ], [ "2019-10-14", 1929.1519 ], [ "2020-04-08", 2141.9559 ], [ "2020-10-05", 2441.3881 ], [ "2021-03-31", 2110.9297 ], [ "2021-09-24", 2102.1795 ], [ "2022-03-22", 2208.9614 ], [ "2022-09-16", 1869.4754 ], [ "2023-03-15", 2120.9012 ], [ "2023-09-12", 2067.1652 ], [ "2024-03-07", 2294.5658 ], [ "2024-09-02", 2642.1418 ], [ "2025-02-26", 3019.1864 ], [ "2025-08-21", 3426.5128 ], [ "2026-02-17", 4898.5409 ], [ "2026-08-12", 4426.65 ] ], "key": "gold_real", "group": "geldwert", "group_label": "Geldwert" }, "real_policy_rate": { "label": "Realer Leitzins", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "Prozentpunkte", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 0.27, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1954-07-01", "n": 865, "percentile": 37.8, "pressure": 62.2, "zscore": 0.3, "tau": -0.211, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-04-01", "change_10y": 0.7, "change_30y": -2.18, "note": "Leitzins abz\u00fcglich Inflationsrate. Dauerhaft negative Werte sind finanzielle Repression: Sparer finanzieren die Entwertung der Staatsschuld, ohne dass je dar\u00fcber abgestimmt wurde.", "source": "Fed/BLS \u00fcber FRED (FEDFUNDS \u2212 Jahresrate CPIAUCNS)", "spark": [ [ "1954-07-01", 0.4269 ], [ "1955-02-01", 2.0335 ], [ "1955-09-01", 1.8069 ], [ "1956-04-01", 1.8709 ], [ "1956-11-01", 0.6495 ], [ "1957-07-01", -0.2947 ], [ "1958-02-01", -1.5791 ], [ "1958-09-01", -0.3601 ], [ "1959-04-01", 2.614 ], [ "1959-11-01", 2.6207 ], [ "1960-07-01", 1.8601 ], [ "1961-02-01", 1.1795 ], [ "1961-09-01", 0.5286 ], [ "1962-04-01", 1.4377 ], [ "1962-11-01", 1.6067 ], [ "1963-07-01", 1.6999 ], [ "1964-02-01", 1.8353 ], [ "1964-09-01", 2.1471 ], [ "1965-04-01", 2.4719 ], [ "1965-11-01", 2.4974 ], [ "1966-07-01", 2.4519 ], [ "1967-02-01", 2.1875 ], [ "1967-09-01", 1.2377 ], [ "1968-04-01", 1.8325 ], [ "1968-12-01", 1.3002 ], [ "1969-07-01", 3.1659 ], [ "1970-02-01", 2.8347 ], [ "1970-09-01", 0.6296 ], [ "1971-04-01", 0.0042 ], [ "1971-12-01", 0.8737 ], [ "1972-07-01", 1.6016 ], [ "1973-02-01", 2.7059 ], [ "1973-09-01", 3.4166 ], [ "1974-04-01", 0.4183 ], [ "1974-12-01", -3.8077 ], [ "1975-07-01", -3.6166 ], [ "1976-02-01", -1.5157 ], [ "1976-09-01", -0.2445 ], [ "1977-04-01", -2.2219 ], [ "1977-12-01", -0.141 ], [ "1978-07-01", 0.1051 ], [ "1979-02-01", 0.2031 ], [ "1979-09-01", -0.7505 ], [ "1980-04-01", 2.8791 ], [ "1980-12-01", 6.3837 ], [ "1981-07-01", 8.2782 ], [ "1982-02-01", 7.1577 ], [ "1982-09-01", 5.2671 ], [ "1983-05-01", 5.0809 ], [ "1983-12-01", 5.679 ], [ "1984-07-01", 7.0258 ], [ "1985-02-01", 4.9844 ], [ "1985-09-01", 4.7771 ], [ "1986-05-01", 5.3589 ], [ "1986-12-01", 5.8121 ], [ "1987-07-01", 2.6531 ], [ "1988-02-01", 2.6373 ], [ "1988-09-01", 4.0161 ], [ "1989-05-01", 4.4483 ], [ "1989-12-01", 3.8027 ], [ "1990-07-01", 3.3268 ], [ "1991-02-01", 0.9375 ], [ "1991-09-01", 2.0589 ], [ "1992-05-01", 0.7964 ], [ "1992-12-01", 0.0193 ], [ "1993-07-01", 0.2842 ], [ "1994-02-01", 0.7343 ], [ "1994-09-01", 1.7665 ], [ "1995-05-01", 2.8236 ], [ "1995-12-01", 3.0616 ], [ "1996-07-01", 2.4492 ], [ "1997-02-01", 2.1558 ], [ "1997-10-01", 3.4154 ], [ "1998-05-01", 3.8036 ], [ "1998-12-01", 3.0681 ], [ "1999-07-01", 2.8454 ], [ "2000-02-01", 2.5081 ], [ "2000-10-01", 3.0617 ], [ "2001-05-01", 0.5948 ], [ "2001-12-01", 0.2683 ], [ "2002-07-01", 0.2652 ], [ "2003-02-01", -1.7209 ], [ "2003-10-01", -1.0308 ], [ "2004-05-01", -2.0518 ], [ "2004-12-01", -1.0956 ], [ "2005-07-01", 0.0921 ], [ "2006-02-01", 0.8925 ], [ "2006-10-01", 3.9448 ], [ "2007-05-01", 2.5591 ], [ "2007-12-01", 0.1587 ], [ "2008-07-01", -3.5901 ], [ "2009-02-01", -0.0162 ], [ "2009-10-01", 0.3028 ], [ "2010-05-01", -1.821 ], [ "2010-12-01", -1.3157 ], [ "2011-07-01", -3.5587 ], [ "2012-03-01", -2.5214 ], [ "2012-10-01", -2.0023 ], [ "2013-05-01", -1.252 ], [ "2013-12-01", -1.4117 ], [ "2014-07-01", -1.9023 ], [ "2015-03-01", 0.1836 ], [ "2015-10-01", -0.0506 ], [ "2016-05-01", -0.6493 ], [ "2016-12-01", -1.5346 ], [ "2017-07-01", -0.578 ], [ "2018-03-01", -0.8497 ], [ "2018-10-01", -0.3325 ], [ "2019-05-01", 0.5998 ], [ "2019-12-01", -0.7351 ], [ "2020-07-01", -0.8961 ], [ "2021-03-01", -2.5498 ], [ "2021-10-01", -6.1419 ], [ "2022-05-01", -7.8115 ], [ "2022-12-01", -2.3544 ], [ "2023-07-01", 1.9422 ], [ "2024-03-01", 1.8526 ], [ "2024-10-01", 2.2321 ], [ "2025-05-01", 1.9751 ], [ "2025-12-01", 1.0429 ], [ "2026-07-01", 0.2652 ] ], "key": "real_policy_rate", "group": "geldwert", "group_label": "Geldwert" }, "niip_gdp": { "label": "Netto-Auslandsverm\u00f6gensposition \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "% des BIP", "danger": "low", "decimals": 1, "raw": -72.8, "as_of": "2025-01-01", "start": "1976-01-01", "n": 50, "percentile": 4.0, "pressure": 96.0, "zscore": 2.28, "tau": -0.873, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -30.8, "change_30y": -69.1, "note": "Was die USA der Welt netto schulden. Die Kennziffer, an der sich \u201eEmpire\u201c materiell festmachen l\u00e4sst: Ein Land, dessen Auslandsschuld schneller w\u00e4chst als seine Wirtschaft, lebt von der Bereitschaft anderer, seine Verbindlichkeiten zu halten.", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (IIPUSNETIA \u00f7 GDP, ab 1976)", "spark": [ [ "1976-01-01", 4.424 ], [ "1977-01-01", 4.9574 ], [ "1978-01-01", 5.8233 ], [ "1979-01-01", 9.1922 ], [ "1980-01-01", 10.6408 ], [ "1981-01-01", 7.2656 ], [ "1982-01-01", 7.2799 ], [ "1983-01-01", 7.5284 ], [ "1984-01-01", 3.5859 ], [ "1985-01-01", 2.4652 ], [ "1986-01-01", 2.4231 ], [ "1987-01-01", 1.2625 ], [ "1988-01-01", 0.4234 ], [ "1989-01-01", -0.6117 ], [ "1990-01-01", -2.5461 ], [ "1991-01-01", -4.0316 ], [ "1992-01-01", -6.7912 ], [ "1993-01-01", -1.8095 ], [ "1994-01-01", -1.5503 ], [ "1995-01-01", -3.6899 ], [ "1996-01-01", -4.1724 ], [ "1997-01-01", -9.4255 ], [ "1998-01-01", -11.6594 ], [ "1999-01-01", -10.6492 ], [ "2000-01-01", -15.3591 ], [ "2001-01-01", -21.9142 ], [ "2002-01-01", -22.3523 ], [ "2003-01-01", -20.5152 ], [ "2004-01-01", -19.8161 ], [ "2005-01-01", -14.5468 ], [ "2006-01-01", -13.2936 ], [ "2007-01-01", -8.9959 ], [ "2008-01-01", -27.1622 ], [ "2009-01-01", -18.2036 ], [ "2010-01-01", -17.0074 ], [ "2011-01-01", -29.0176 ], [ "2012-01-01", -28.4373 ], [ "2013-01-01", -32.6978 ], [ "2014-01-01", -40.8262 ], [ "2015-01-01", -42.021 ], [ "2016-01-01", -44.5774 ], [ "2017-01-01", -40.6156 ], [ "2018-01-01", -48.1875 ], [ "2019-01-01", -55.2608 ], [ "2020-01-01", -54.6834 ], [ "2021-01-01", -67.7139 ], [ "2022-01-01", -56.3426 ], [ "2023-01-01", -62.9164 ], [ "2024-01-01", -77.0787 ], [ "2025-01-01", -72.8097 ] ], "key": "niip_gdp", "group": "aussenposition", "group_label": "Au\u00dfenposition" }, "current_account": { "label": "Leistungsbilanzsaldo \u00f7 BIP", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "% des BIP", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": -3.12, "as_of": "2026-01-01", "start": "1947-01-01", "n": 317, "percentile": 20.5, "pressure": 79.5, "zscore": 0.9, "tau": -0.587, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2024-10-01", "change_10y": -0.81, "change_30y": -1.81, "note": "", "source": "BEA \u00fcber FRED (NETFI \u00f7 GDP)", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 3.8678 ], [ "1947-07-01", 4.0391 ], [ "1948-04-01", 1.1095 ], [ "1948-10-01", 0.2839 ], [ "1949-07-01", 0.2375 ], [ "1950-04-01", -0.4287 ], [ "1950-10-01", -0.7779 ], [ "1951-07-01", 0.6232 ], [ "1952-04-01", 0.3119 ], [ "1952-10-01", -0.324 ], [ "1953-07-01", -0.3014 ], [ "1954-04-01", 0.087 ], [ "1954-10-01", 0.2272 ], [ "1955-07-01", 0.1876 ], [ "1956-01-01", 0.2144 ], [ "1956-10-01", 0.984 ], [ "1957-07-01", 1.0248 ], [ "1958-01-01", 0.3159 ], [ "1958-10-01", -0.0286 ], [ "1959-07-01", 0.0063 ], [ "1960-01-01", 0.3437 ], [ "1960-10-01", 0.9041 ], [ "1961-07-01", 0.758 ], [ "1962-01-01", 0.5237 ], [ "1962-10-01", 0.5826 ], [ "1963-07-01", 0.8102 ], [ "1964-01-01", 1.2229 ], [ "1964-10-01", 1.086 ], [ "1965-04-01", 0.8585 ], [ "1966-01-01", 0.5822 ], [ "1966-10-01", 0.4901 ], [ "1967-04-01", 0.3834 ], [ "1968-01-01", 0.1772 ], [ "1968-10-01", 0.0682 ], [ "1969-04-01", 0.05 ], [ "1970-01-01", 0.3719 ], [ "1970-10-01", 0.2022 ], [ "1971-04-01", -0.0119 ], [ "1972-01-01", -0.4088 ], [ "1972-10-01", -0.2093 ], [ "1973-04-01", 0.3825 ], [ "1974-01-01", 1.1076 ], [ "1974-07-01", 0.0198 ], [ "1975-04-01", 1.2988 ], [ "1976-01-01", 0.7224 ], [ "1976-07-01", 0.1275 ], [ "1977-04-01", -0.4301 ], [ "1978-01-01", -1.1353 ], [ "1978-07-01", -0.4754 ], [ "1979-04-01", -0.1041 ], [ "1980-01-01", -0.3823 ], [ "1980-07-01", 0.9857 ], [ "1981-04-01", 0.0054 ], [ "1982-01-01", 0.0199 ], [ "1982-07-01", -0.417 ], [ "1983-04-01", -0.7722 ], [ "1983-10-01", -1.496 ], [ "1984-07-01", -2.2143 ], [ "1985-04-01", -2.5929 ], [ "1985-10-01", -3.0415 ], [ "1986-07-01", -3.2602 ], [ "1987-04-01", -3.2122 ], [ "1987-10-01", -3.1351 ], [ "1988-07-01", -2.0151 ], [ "1989-04-01", -1.6673 ], [ "1989-10-01", -1.5222 ], [ "1990-07-01", -1.3694 ], [ "1991-01-01", 0.7718 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"2016-04-01", -2.1228 ], [ "2017-01-01", -1.8628 ], [ "2017-07-01", -1.7757 ], [ "2018-04-01", -1.8301 ], [ "2018-10-01", -2.4456 ], [ "2019-07-01", -2.0559 ], [ "2020-04-01", -2.5519 ], [ "2020-10-01", -3.2682 ], [ "2021-07-01", -3.8961 ], [ "2022-04-01", -3.988 ], [ "2022-10-01", -3.4875 ], [ "2023-07-01", -3.2654 ], [ "2024-04-01", -3.9551 ], [ "2024-10-01", -3.9651 ], [ "2025-07-01", -3.1484 ], [ "2026-01-01", -3.121 ] ], "key": "current_account", "group": "aussenposition", "group_label": "Au\u00dfenposition" }, "dollar_index": { "label": "Handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs", "pillar": "fiat", "weight": 0.6, "unit": "Index 2006=100", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 119.06, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "start": "2006-01-02", "n": 5164, "percentile": 79.9, "pressure": 20.1, "zscore": -1.03, "tau": 0.648, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-12-29", "change_10y": 6.71, "change_30y": null, "note": "Der Au\u00dfenwert des Dollars. Steht hier ausdr\u00fccklich als Gegenprobe: Solange dieser Kurs stark ist, ist die These vom akuten Dollarverfall am Devisenmarkt nicht ablesbar. Geringes Gewicht, weil kurzfristige Kursbewegungen wenig \u00fcber die Ordnung aussagen.", "source": "Fed \u00fcber FRED (DTWEXBGS, ab 2006)", "spark": [ [ "2006-01-02", 101.4155 ], [ "2006-03-02", 99.5969 ], [ "2006-05-02", 97.6571 ], [ "2006-06-30", 98.2483 ], [ "2006-08-30", 97.5792 ], [ "2006-10-30", 97.5672 ], [ "2006-12-28", 97.0656 ], [ "2007-02-28", 97.2386 ], [ "2007-04-30", 94.8365 ], [ "2007-06-28", 94.2395 ], [ "2007-08-28", 93.8394 ], [ "2007-10-26", 89.6508 ], [ "2007-12-26", 89.9226 ], [ "2008-02-25", 88.5373 ], [ "2008-04-24", 86.7154 ], [ "2008-06-24", 86.9666 ], [ "2008-08-22", 89.2381 ], [ "2008-10-22", 101.2131 ], [ "2008-12-22", 98.1643 ], [ "2009-02-25", 104.3086 ], [ "2009-04-27", 100.7258 ], [ "2009-06-26", 96.1935 ], [ "2009-08-27", 94.7943 ], [ "2009-10-29", 92.4708 ], [ "2010-01-05", 92.2236 ], [ "2010-03-15", 92.9642 ], [ "2010-05-13", 94.5071 ], [ "2010-07-15", 94.1988 ], [ "2010-09-15", 92.9313 ], [ "2010-11-17", 90.9282 ], [ "2011-01-24", 89.5375 ], [ "2011-03-25", 88.1716 ], [ "2011-05-25", 87.6136 ], [ "2011-07-27", 85.7126 ], [ "2011-09-27", 90.8985 ], [ "2011-11-30", 91.4728 ], [ "2012-02-02", 89.8765 ], [ "2012-04-04", 90.8284 ], [ "2012-06-05", 94.6184 ], [ "2012-08-06", 92.4339 ], [ "2012-10-05", 90.2851 ], [ "2012-12-12", 90.7708 ], [ "2013-02-14", 91.366 ], [ "2013-04-18", 92.176 ], [ "2013-06-19", 92.4755 ], [ "2013-08-20", 93.5536 ], [ "2013-10-22", 91.9563 ], [ "2013-12-26", 93.766 ], [ "2014-03-05", 94.4679 ], [ "2014-05-06", 93.4324 ], [ "2014-07-08", 93.323 ], [ "2014-09-08", 95.4167 ], [ "2014-11-07", 99.0236 ], [ "2015-01-14", 103.0903 ], [ "2015-03-20", 107.1671 ], [ "2015-05-20", 105.5605 ], [ "2015-07-22", 108.7817 ], [ "2015-09-22", 111.1967 ], [ "2015-11-24", 111.7638 ], [ "2016-02-02", 115.553 ], [ "2016-04-05", 110.9478 ], [ "2016-06-06", 111.2295 ], [ "2016-08-05", 112.3589 ], [ "2016-10-06", 113.0066 ], [ "2016-12-09", 117.2834 ], [ "2017-02-14", 116.3949 ], [ "2017-04-17", 114.3283 ], [ "2017-06-16", 112.6155 ], [ "2017-08-17", 110.1673 ], [ "2017-10-19", 110.4577 ], [ "2017-12-21", 110.8786 ], [ "2018-02-26", 107.7347 ], [ "2018-04-30", 109.3363 ], [ "2018-06-29", 113.2586 ], [ "2018-08-30", 114.0899 ], [ "2018-11-01", 115.8657 ], [ "2019-01-08", 114.7281 ], [ "2019-03-14", 114.79 ], [ "2019-05-14", 115.9425 ], [ "2019-07-16", 115.0111 ], [ "2019-09-16", 117.0251 ], [ "2019-11-18", 116.3625 ], [ "2020-01-23", 115.5545 ], [ "2020-03-25", 124.7916 ], [ "2020-05-26", 121.3864 ], [ "2020-07-27", 117.3869 ], [ "2020-09-25", 117.8679 ], [ "2020-12-01", 112.8063 ], [ "2021-02-05", 112.2379 ], [ "2021-04-08", 113.0917 ], [ "2021-06-10", 110.5456 ], [ "2021-08-11", 113.282 ], [ "2021-10-13", 114.4705 ], [ "2021-12-15", 116.4219 ], [ "2022-02-17", 114.6755 ], [ "2022-04-20", 116.7306 ], [ "2022-06-22", 120.5197 ], [ "2022-08-23", 123.0547 ], [ "2022-10-25", 127.3771 ], [ "2022-12-28", 122.0075 ], [ "2023-03-02", 121.1302 ], [ "2023-05-02", 119.6105 ], [ "2023-07-05", 119.3483 ], [ "2023-09-05", 121.4345 ], [ "2023-11-06", 121.6484 ], [ "2024-01-10", 119.7614 ], [ "2024-03-13", 119.9642 ], [ "2024-05-13", 122.0261 ], [ "2024-07-16", 122.7264 ], [ "2024-09-16", 121.4976 ], [ "2024-11-18", 126.6045 ], [ "2025-01-22", 128.3402 ], [ "2025-03-25", 126.0535 ], [ "2025-05-23", 121.3837 ], [ "2025-07-28", 120.6149 ], [ "2025-09-26", 120.4349 ], [ "2025-12-01", 120.9862 ], [ "2026-02-03", 117.9764 ], [ "2026-04-06", 120.4302 ], [ "2026-06-05", 120.0831 ], [ "2026-08-07", 119.0649 ] ], "key": "dollar_index", "group": "reserve", "group_label": "Reservestatus" }, "co2": { "label": "CO\u2082-Konzentration", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.3, "unit": "ppm", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 429.12, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1958-03-01", "n": 821, "percentile": 99.0, "pressure": 99.0, "zscore": 2.03, "tau": 0.956, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2025-06-01", "change_10y": 24.53, "change_30y": 65.43, "note": "Mauna Loa, monatlich seit 1958. Die planetare Grenze liegt bei 350 ppm, die Hochrisikolinie bei 450.", "source": "NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory", "spark": [ [ "1958-03-01", 315.71 ], [ "1958-09-01", 313.21 ], [ "1959-04-01", 317.72 ], [ "1959-11-01", 314.81 ], [ "1960-06-01", 319.58 ], [ "1961-01-01", 316.89 ], [ "1961-08-01", 316.79 ], [ "1962-02-01", 318.55 ], [ "1962-09-01", 316.24 ], [ "1963-04-01", 321.38 ], [ "1963-11-01", 317.07 ], [ "1964-06-01", 321.89 ], [ "1965-01-01", 319.44 ], [ "1965-07-01", 321.21 ], [ "1966-02-01", 321.6 ], [ "1966-09-01", 318.64 ], [ "1967-04-01", 324.41 ], [ "1967-11-01", 320.73 ], [ "1968-06-01", 325.36 ], [ "1968-12-01", 322.89 ], [ "1969-07-01", 325.88 ], [ "1970-02-01", 325.99 ], [ "1970-09-01", 323.1 ], [ "1971-04-01", 327.78 ], [ "1971-11-01", 324.8 ], [ "1972-06-01", 329.09 ], [ "1972-12-01", 327.55 ], [ "1973-07-01", 330.87 ], [ "1974-02-01", 330.71 ], [ "1974-09-01", 327.33 ], [ "1975-04-01", 333.11 ], [ "1975-11-01", 329.38 ], [ "1976-05-01", 334.72 ], [ "1976-12-01", 331.62 ], [ "1977-07-01", 334.89 ], [ "1978-02-01", 335.26 ], [ "1978-09-01", 332.36 ], [ "1979-04-01", 338.82 ], [ "1979-10-01", 334.24 ], [ "1980-05-01", 341.45 ], [ "1980-12-01", 338.29 ], [ "1981-07-01", 340.82 ], [ "1982-02-01", 341.76 ], [ "1982-09-01", 338.37 ], [ "1983-04-01", 345.4 ], [ "1983-10-01", 340.53 ], [ "1984-05-01", 347.77 ], [ "1984-12-01", 345.0 ], [ "1985-07-01", 346.9 ], [ "1986-02-01", 347.48 ], [ "1986-09-01", 345.48 ], [ "1987-03-01", 349.81 ], [ "1987-10-01", 346.72 ], [ "1988-05-01", 354.35 ], [ "1988-12-01", 351.62 ], [ "1989-07-01", 354.05 ], [ "1990-02-01", 355.1 ], [ "1990-08-01", 353.06 ], [ "1991-03-01", 357.33 ], [ "1991-10-01", 352.43 ], [ "1992-05-01", 359.71 ], [ "1992-12-01", 355.68 ], [ "1993-07-01", 357.45 ], [ "1994-02-01", 359.04 ], [ "1994-08-01", 357.59 ], [ "1995-03-01", 361.98 ], [ "1995-10-01", 358.14 ], [ "1996-05-01", 365.25 ], [ "1996-12-01", 362.39 ], [ "1997-07-01", 364.46 ], [ "1998-01-01", 365.39 ], [ "1998-08-01", 366.1 ], [ "1999-03-01", 369.84 ], [ "1999-10-01", 365.52 ], [ "2000-05-01", 371.75 ], [ "2000-12-01", 369.83 ], [ "2001-06-01", 373.4 ], [ "2002-01-01", 372.7 ], [ "2002-08-01", 372.03 ], [ "2003-03-01", 376.64 ], [ "2003-10-01", 373.31 ], [ "2004-05-01", 380.8 ], [ "2004-12-01", 377.68 ], [ "2005-06-01", 382.4 ], [ "2006-01-01", 381.58 ], [ "2006-08-01", 380.6 ], [ "2007-03-01", 384.81 ], [ "2007-10-01", 381.37 ], [ "2008-05-01", 388.78 ], [ "2008-11-01", 384.41 ], [ "2009-06-01", 389.7 ], [ "2010-01-01", 388.91 ], [ "2010-08-01", 388.54 ], [ "2011-03-01", 392.8 ], [ "2011-10-01", 389.19 ], [ "2012-04-01", 396.38 ], [ "2012-11-01", 393.2 ], [ "2013-06-01", 398.81 ], [ "2014-01-01", 398.04 ], [ "2014-08-01", 397.18 ], [ "2015-03-01", 401.74 ], [ "2015-10-01", 398.49 ], [ "2016-04-01", 407.6 ], [ "2016-11-01", 403.72 ], [ "2017-06-01", 409.08 ], [ "2018-01-01", 408.15 ], [ "2018-08-01", 407.16 ], [ "2019-03-01", 412.18 ], [ "2019-09-01", 408.76 ], [ "2020-04-01", 416.42 ], [ "2020-11-01", 413.1 ], [ "2021-06-01", 418.93 ], [ "2022-01-01", 418.13 ], [ "2022-08-01", 417.15 ], [ "2023-02-01", 420.31 ], [ "2023-09-01", 418.5 ], [ "2024-04-01", 426.51 ], [ "2024-11-01", 423.85 ], [ "2025-06-01", 429.61 ], [ "2026-01-01", 428.62 ], [ "2026-07-01", 429.12 ] ], "key": "co2", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "temp_anomaly": { "label": "Globale Temperaturabweichung", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.3, "unit": "\u00b0C gg\u00fc. 1951\u201380", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 1.19, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "start": "1880-12-31", "n": 146, "percentile": 99.3, "pressure": 99.3, "zscore": 2.77, "tau": 0.731, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": 0.29, "change_30y": 0.75, "note": "", "source": "NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4, ab 1880)", "spark": [ [ "1880-12-31", -0.17 ], [ "1881-12-31", -0.09 ], [ "1882-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1883-12-31", -0.17 ], [ "1884-12-31", -0.28 ], [ "1886-12-31", -0.32 ], [ "1887-12-31", -0.36 ], [ "1888-12-31", -0.18 ], [ "1889-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1890-12-31", -0.36 ], [ "1892-12-31", -0.27 ], [ "1893-12-31", -0.31 ], [ "1894-12-31", -0.3 ], [ "1895-12-31", -0.23 ], [ "1897-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1898-12-31", -0.28 ], [ "1899-12-31", -0.18 ], [ "1900-12-31", -0.09 ], [ "1901-12-31", -0.15 ], [ "1903-12-31", -0.37 ], [ "1904-12-31", -0.48 ], [ "1905-12-31", -0.27 ], [ "1906-12-31", -0.23 ], [ "1907-12-31", -0.39 ], [ "1909-12-31", -0.49 ], [ "1910-12-31", -0.44 ], [ "1911-12-31", -0.45 ], [ "1912-12-31", -0.37 ], [ "1914-12-31", -0.16 ], [ "1915-12-31", -0.15 ], [ "1916-12-31", -0.36 ], [ "1917-12-31", -0.46 ], [ "1918-12-31", -0.3 ], [ "1920-12-31", -0.28 ], [ "1921-12-31", -0.19 ], [ "1922-12-31", -0.28 ], [ "1923-12-31", -0.26 ], [ "1925-12-31", -0.22 ], [ "1926-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1927-12-31", -0.22 ], [ "1928-12-31", -0.2 ], [ "1929-12-31", -0.36 ], [ "1931-12-31", -0.09 ], [ "1932-12-31", -0.16 ], [ "1933-12-31", -0.29 ], [ "1934-12-31", -0.13 ], [ "1935-12-31", -0.2 ], [ "1937-12-31", -0.03 ], [ "1938-12-31", 0.0 ], [ "1939-12-31", -0.02 ], [ "1940-12-31", 0.12 ], [ "1942-12-31", 0.06 ], [ "1943-12-31", 0.09 ], [ "1944-12-31", 0.2 ], [ "1945-12-31", 0.09 ], [ "1946-12-31", -0.07 ], [ "1948-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1949-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1950-12-31", -0.17 ], [ "1951-12-31", -0.07 ], [ "1953-12-31", 0.08 ], [ "1954-12-31", -0.13 ], [ "1955-12-31", -0.14 ], [ "1956-12-31", -0.19 ], [ "1957-12-31", 0.05 ], [ "1959-12-31", 0.03 ], [ "1960-12-31", -0.02 ], [ "1961-12-31", 0.06 ], [ "1962-12-31", 0.03 ], [ "1963-12-31", 0.05 ], [ "1965-12-31", -0.11 ], [ "1966-12-31", -0.06 ], [ "1967-12-31", -0.02 ], [ "1968-12-31", -0.08 ], [ "1970-12-31", 0.03 ], [ "1971-12-31", -0.08 ], [ "1972-12-31", 0.01 ], [ "1973-12-31", 0.16 ], [ "1974-12-31", -0.07 ], [ "1976-12-31", -0.1 ], [ "1977-12-31", 0.18 ], [ "1978-12-31", 0.07 ], [ "1979-12-31", 0.16 ], [ "1980-12-31", 0.26 ], [ "1982-12-31", 0.14 ], [ "1983-12-31", 0.31 ], [ "1984-12-31", 0.15 ], [ "1985-12-31", 0.12 ], [ "1987-12-31", 0.32 ], [ "1988-12-31", 0.39 ], [ "1989-12-31", 0.27 ], [ "1990-12-31", 0.45 ], [ "1991-12-31", 0.4 ], [ "1993-12-31", 0.23 ], [ "1994-12-31", 0.31 ], [ "1995-12-31", 0.44 ], [ "1996-12-31", 0.33 ], [ "1998-12-31", 0.61 ], [ "1999-12-31", 0.38 ], [ "2000-12-31", 0.39 ], [ "2001-12-31", 0.53 ], [ "2002-12-31", 0.63 ], [ "2004-12-31", 0.53 ], [ "2005-12-31", 0.68 ], [ "2006-12-31", 0.64 ], [ "2007-12-31", 0.66 ], [ "2008-12-31", 0.54 ], [ "2010-12-31", 0.73 ], [ "2011-12-31", 0.61 ], [ "2012-12-31", 0.65 ], [ "2013-12-31", 0.68 ], [ "2015-12-31", 0.9 ], [ "2016-12-31", 1.01 ], [ "2017-12-31", 0.92 ], [ "2018-12-31", 0.85 ], [ "2019-12-31", 0.98 ], [ "2021-12-31", 0.85 ], [ "2022-12-31", 0.89 ], [ "2023-12-31", 1.17 ], [ "2024-12-31", 1.28 ], [ "2025-12-31", 1.19 ] ], "key": "temp_anomaly", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "living_planet": { "label": "Living Planet Index", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.2, "unit": "Index 1970=100", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 27.13, "as_of": "2020-12-31", "start": "1970-12-31", "n": 51, "percentile": 3.9, "pressure": 96.1, "zscore": 1.24, "tau": -0.992, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2018-12-31", "change_10y": -3.97, "change_30y": -32.96, "note": "Mittlere Bestandsentwicklung von rund 35.000 Wirbeltierpopulationen. Der Index misst die durchschnittliche relative Ver\u00e4nderung der Bestandsgr\u00f6\u00dfen, nicht die Zahl verlorener Tiere oder Arten.", "source": "WWF/ZSL \u00fcber Our World in Data (bis 2020)", "spark": [ [ "1970-12-31", 100.0 ], [ "1971-12-31", 99.4068 ], [ "1972-12-31", 98.1429 ], [ "1973-12-31", 96.6168 ], [ "1974-12-31", 94.8099 ], [ "1975-12-31", 92.655 ], [ "1976-12-31", 89.9916 ], [ "1977-12-31", 86.3677 ], [ "1978-12-31", 82.8678 ], [ "1979-12-31", 80.26 ], [ "1980-12-31", 78.4334 ], [ "1981-12-31", 77.0146 ], [ "1982-12-31", 74.7317 ], [ "1983-12-31", 72.1775 ], [ "1984-12-31", 69.7077 ], [ "1985-12-31", 67.6748 ], [ "1986-12-31", 66.1693 ], [ "1987-12-31", 64.4226 ], [ "1988-12-31", 62.6753 ], [ "1989-12-31", 61.358 ], [ "1990-12-31", 60.0921 ], [ "1991-12-31", 58.8162 ], [ "1992-12-31", 57.2832 ], [ "1993-12-31", 55.242 ], [ "1994-12-31", 53.2473 ], [ "1995-12-31", 51.1491 ], [ "1996-12-31", 50.2496 ], [ "1997-12-31", 48.9223 ], [ "1998-12-31", 47.5008 ], [ "1999-12-31", 45.6759 ], [ "2000-12-31", 44.3735 ], [ "2001-12-31", 43.1256 ], [ "2002-12-31", 42.0134 ], [ "2003-12-31", 40.9285 ], [ "2004-12-31", 39.984 ], [ "2005-12-31", 38.8676 ], [ "2006-12-31", 37.4495 ], [ "2007-12-31", 35.9529 ], [ "2008-12-31", 34.3553 ], [ "2009-12-31", 32.7114 ], [ "2010-12-31", 31.1 ], [ "2011-12-31", 29.6028 ], [ "2012-12-31", 28.6671 ], [ "2013-12-31", 28.4131 ], [ "2014-12-31", 28.5037 ], [ "2015-12-31", 28.5673 ], [ "2016-12-31", 27.7885 ], [ "2017-12-31", 27.3699 ], [ "2018-12-31", 27.0971 ], [ "2019-12-31", 27.3274 ], [ "2020-12-31", 27.1341 ] ], "key": "living_planet", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "forest_share": { "label": "Waldfl\u00e4che der Erde", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "% der Landfl\u00e4che", "danger": "low", "decimals": 3, "raw": 31.906, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "start": "1990-12-31", "n": 36, "percentile": 2.8, "pressure": 97.2, "zscore": 1.45, "tau": -1.0, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -0.318, "change_30y": -1.155, "note": "", "source": "FAO Forest Resources Assessment \u00fcber Our World in Data", "spark": [ [ "1990-12-31", 33.4726 ], [ "1991-12-31", 33.3902 ], [ "1992-12-31", 33.3078 ], [ "1993-12-31", 33.2254 ], [ "1994-12-31", 33.143 ], [ "1995-12-31", 33.0605 ], [ "1996-12-31", 32.9781 ], [ "1997-12-31", 32.8957 ], [ "1998-12-31", 32.8133 ], [ "1999-12-31", 32.7309 ], [ "2000-12-31", 32.6485 ], [ "2001-12-31", 32.621 ], [ "2002-12-31", 32.5936 ], [ "2003-12-31", 32.5662 ], [ "2004-12-31", 32.5388 ], [ "2005-12-31", 32.5113 ], [ "2006-12-31", 32.4839 ], [ "2007-12-31", 32.4565 ], [ "2008-12-31", 32.4291 ], [ "2009-12-31", 32.4016 ], [ "2010-12-31", 32.3742 ], [ "2011-12-31", 32.3441 ], [ "2012-12-31", 32.3139 ], [ "2013-12-31", 32.2838 ], [ "2014-12-31", 32.2536 ], [ "2015-12-31", 32.2234 ], [ "2016-12-31", 32.1985 ], [ "2017-12-31", 32.1735 ], [ "2018-12-31", 32.1486 ], [ "2019-12-31", 32.1236 ], [ "2020-12-31", 32.0986 ], [ "2021-12-31", 32.0601 ], [ "2022-12-31", 32.0215 ], [ "2023-12-31", 31.9829 ], [ "2024-12-31", 31.9444 ], [ "2025-12-31", 31.9058 ] ], "key": "forest_share", "group": "biosphaere", "group_label": "Biosph\u00e4re" }, "fertilizer": { "label": "D\u00fcngemitteleinsatz je Hektar", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "kg/ha", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 116.43, "as_of": "2023-12-31", "start": "1961-12-31", "n": 63, "percentile": 92.1, "pressure": 92.1, "zscore": 1.25, "tau": 0.886, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2021-12-31", "change_10y": 2.1, "change_30y": 39.77, "note": "Steht stellvertretend f\u00fcr die Stickstoff- und Phosphorkreisl\u00e4ufe \u2014 jene beiden planetaren Grenzen, die am weitesten jenseits ihrer Hochrisikolinie liegen, deutlicher noch als das Klima.", "source": "FAO \u00fcber Our World in Data (ab 1961)", "spark": [ [ "1961-12-31", 20.82 ], [ "1962-12-31", 22.56 ], [ "1963-12-31", 25.01 ], [ "1964-12-31", 27.95 ], [ "1965-12-31", 31.22 ], [ "1966-12-31", 34.93 ], [ "1967-12-31", 37.68 ], [ "1968-12-31", 39.89 ], [ "1969-12-31", 42.13 ], [ "1970-12-31", 46.05 ], [ "1971-12-31", 49.15 ], [ "1972-12-31", 52.43 ], [ "1973-12-31", 56.74 ], [ "1974-12-31", 55.27 ], [ "1975-12-31", 60.64 ], [ "1976-12-31", 63.38 ], [ "1977-12-31", 67.35 ], [ "1978-12-31", 71.6 ], [ "1979-12-31", 74.03 ], [ "1980-12-31", 76.85 ], [ "1981-12-31", 76.3 ], [ "1982-12-31", 76.1 ], [ "1983-12-31", 81.32 ], [ "1984-12-31", 84.85 ], [ "1985-12-31", 83.47 ], [ "1986-12-31", 85.62 ], [ "1987-12-31", 89.3 ], [ "1988-12-31", 93.3 ], [ "1989-12-31", 91.56 ], [ "1990-12-31", 88.72 ], [ "1991-12-31", 86.29 ], [ "1992-12-31", 80.51 ], [ "1993-12-31", 76.66 ], [ "1994-12-31", 78.04 ], [ "1995-12-31", 82.72 ], [ "1996-12-31", 86.09 ], [ "1997-12-31", 87.27 ], [ "1998-12-31", 87.94 ], [ "1999-12-31", 89.14 ], [ "2000-12-31", 85.97 ], [ "2001-12-31", 87.42 ], [ "2002-12-31", 90.32 ], [ "2003-12-31", 93.3 ], [ "2004-12-31", 98.11 ], [ "2005-12-31", 98.25 ], [ "2006-12-31", 101.1 ], [ "2007-12-31", 105.62 ], [ "2008-12-31", 99.26 ], [ "2009-12-31", 100.14 ], [ "2010-12-31", 109.94 ], [ "2011-12-31", 113.52 ], [ "2012-12-31", 112.37 ], [ "2013-12-31", 114.33 ], [ "2014-12-31", 116.89 ], [ "2015-12-31", 113.98 ], [ "2016-12-31", 115.97 ], [ "2017-12-31", 118.43 ], [ "2018-12-31", 117.09 ], [ "2019-12-31", 115.4 ], [ "2020-12-31", 123.18 ], [ "2021-12-31", 121.39 ], [ "2022-12-31", 114.77 ], [ "2023-12-31", 116.43 ] ], "key": "fertilizer", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "material_footprint": { "label": "Materialfu\u00dfabdruck pro Kopf", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "t/Kopf", "danger": "high", "decimals": 2, "raw": 12.28, "as_of": "2022-12-31", "start": "2000-12-31", "n": 23, "percentile": 73.9, "pressure": 73.9, "zscore": 0.89, "tau": 0.668, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2018-12-31", "change_10y": 0.09, "change_30y": null, "note": "Gesamte f\u00fcr den Konsum entnommene Rohstoffmenge, den Handel eingerechnet. Die Kennziffer, an der sich die Entkopplungsbehauptung pr\u00fcfen l\u00e4sst: W\u00e4chst die Wirtschaft, ohne dass diese Zahl steigt?", "source": "UN SDG 12.2.1 \u00fcber Our World in Data (ab 2000)", "spark": [ [ "2000-12-31", 9.34 ], [ "2001-12-31", 9.36 ], [ "2002-12-31", 9.43 ], [ "2003-12-31", 9.69 ], [ "2004-12-31", 10.09 ], [ "2005-12-31", 10.34 ], [ "2006-12-31", 10.68 ], [ "2007-12-31", 10.97 ], [ "2008-12-31", 10.99 ], [ "2009-12-31", 10.91 ], [ "2010-12-31", 11.39 ], [ "2011-12-31", 11.96 ], [ "2012-12-31", 12.19 ], [ "2013-12-31", 12.48 ], [ "2014-12-31", 12.52 ], [ "2015-12-31", 12.35 ], [ "2016-12-31", 12.36 ], [ "2017-12-31", 12.32 ], [ "2018-12-31", 12.29 ], [ "2019-12-31", 11.75 ], [ "2020-12-31", 12.0 ], [ "2021-12-31", 12.27 ], [ "2022-12-31", 12.28 ] ], "key": "material_footprint", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "renewable_share": { "label": "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 1.0, "unit": "%", "danger": "low", "decimals": 2, "raw": 8.59, "as_of": "2025-12-31", "start": "1965-12-31", "n": 61, "percentile": 100.0, "pressure": 0.0, "zscore": -2.9, "tau": 0.916, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": "2023-12-31", "change_10y": 3.08, "change_30y": 5.15, "note": "Nach \u00fcber f\u00fcnfzig Jahren Energiewende-Debatte. Steht hier bewusst mit der Gefahrenrichtung \u201eniedrig ist gef\u00e4hrlich\u201c: Ein steigender Wert w\u00e4re der st\u00e4rkste einzelne Gegenbeleg zur Kollapsthese in dieser S\u00e4ule. Ab 1965 gerechnet \u2014 davor f\u00fchrt die Quelle nur jahrzehntweise R\u00fccksch\u00e4tzungen, die mit den Jahreswerten nicht dieselbe Verteilung bilden.", "source": "Energy Institute / Ember \u00fcber Our World in Data (ab 1965)", "spark": [ [ "1965-12-31", 2.4421 ], [ "1966-12-31", 2.4688 ], [ "1967-12-31", 2.4281 ], [ "1968-12-31", 2.4205 ], [ "1969-12-31", 2.3961 ], [ "1970-12-31", 2.3663 ], [ "1971-12-31", 2.3797 ], [ "1972-12-31", 2.3725 ], [ "1973-12-31", 2.2829 ], [ "1974-12-31", 2.5008 ], [ "1975-12-31", 2.5239 ], [ "1976-12-31", 2.4072 ], [ "1977-12-31", 2.4069 ], [ "1978-12-31", 2.5018 ], [ "1979-12-31", 2.5681 ], [ "1980-12-31", 2.6876 ], [ "1981-12-31", 2.7869 ], [ "1982-12-31", 2.8886 ], [ "1983-12-31", 3.0038 ], [ "1984-12-31", 3.0182 ], [ "1985-12-31", 3.0218 ], [ "1986-12-31", 3.0539 ], [ "1987-12-31", 3.0121 ], [ "1988-12-31", 2.99 ], [ "1989-12-31", 3.0055 ], [ "1990-12-31", 3.1296 ], [ "1991-12-31", 3.1917 ], [ "1992-12-31", 3.2075 ], [ "1993-12-31", 3.3589 ], [ "1994-12-31", 3.3619 ], [ "1995-12-31", 3.4437 ], [ "1996-12-31", 3.4033 ], [ "1997-12-31", 3.4661 ], [ "1998-12-31", 3.5144 ], [ "1999-12-31", 3.5292 ], [ "2000-12-31", 3.5168 ], [ "2001-12-31", 3.4337 ], [ "2002-12-31", 3.4769 ], [ "2003-12-31", 3.4214 ], [ "2004-12-31", 3.5242 ], [ "2005-12-31", 3.5822 ], [ "2006-12-31", 3.6885 ], [ "2007-12-31", 3.7904 ], [ "2008-12-31", 4.1037 ], [ "2009-12-31", 4.3336 ], [ "2010-12-31", 4.4702 ], [ "2011-12-31", 4.5778 ], [ "2012-12-31", 4.8269 ], [ "2013-12-31", 5.0643 ], [ "2014-12-31", 5.31 ], [ "2015-12-31", 5.5099 ], [ "2016-12-31", 5.7547 ], [ "2017-12-31", 5.9478 ], [ "2018-12-31", 6.1997 ], [ "2019-12-31", 6.4857 ], [ "2020-12-31", 7.1009 ], [ "2021-12-31", 7.1218 ], [ "2022-12-31", 7.4417 ], [ "2023-12-31", 7.7023 ], [ "2024-12-31", 8.1645 ], [ "2025-12-31", 8.5908 ] ], "key": "renewable_share", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "food_price": { "label": "FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "Index 2014\u201316=100", "danger": "high", "decimals": 1, "raw": 131.1, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1990-01-01", "n": 439, "percentile": 94.1, "pressure": 94.1, "zscore": 1.51, "tau": 0.551, "trend_flag": false, "extreme_since": "2023-01-01", "change_10y": 38.1, "change_30y": 50.6, "note": "Die Schnittstelle zwischen planetaren Grenzen und politischer Stabilit\u00e4t: Nahrungsmittelpreisspitzen gingen 2008 und 2011 den gr\u00f6\u00dften Unruhewellen der j\u00fcngeren Geschichte unmittelbar voraus.", "source": "FAO Food Price Index (ab 1990)", "spark": [ [ "1990-01-01", 64.4 ], [ "1990-04-01", 66.0 ], [ "1990-08-01", 61.8 ], [ "1990-11-01", 62.3 ], [ "1991-03-01", 62.3 ], [ "1991-07-01", 62.2 ], [ "1991-10-01", 64.5 ], [ "1992-02-01", 65.9 ], [ "1992-06-01", 65.9 ], [ "1992-09-01", 63.8 ], [ "1993-01-01", 61.6 ], [ "1993-05-01", 62.4 ], [ "1993-08-01", 60.9 ], [ "1993-12-01", 64.7 ], [ "1994-04-01", 64.1 ], [ "1994-07-01", 64.2 ], [ "1994-11-01", 73.6 ], [ "1995-03-01", 75.5 ], [ "1995-06-01", 75.3 ], [ "1995-10-01", 80.5 ], [ "1996-02-01", 77.6 ], [ "1996-05-01", 82.5 ], [ "1996-09-01", 77.1 ], [ "1997-01-01", 71.0 ], [ "1997-04-01", 73.5 ], [ "1997-08-01", 70.0 ], [ "1997-12-01", 68.1 ], [ "1998-03-01", 67.6 ], [ "1998-07-01", 64.4 ], [ "1998-11-01", 62.8 ], [ "1999-02-01", 58.6 ], [ "1999-06-01", 54.8 ], [ "1999-10-01", 53.5 ], [ "2000-01-01", 52.8 ], [ "2000-05-01", 54.0 ], [ "2000-09-01", 52.9 ], [ "2000-12-01", 54.8 ], [ "2001-04-01", 55.0 ], [ "2001-08-01", 57.0 ], [ "2001-11-01", 55.1 ], [ "2002-03-01", 52.3 ], [ "2002-06-01", 51.6 ], [ "2002-10-01", 55.5 ], [ "2003-02-01", 56.9 ], [ "2003-05-01", 56.7 ], [ "2003-09-01", 59.0 ], [ "2004-01-01", 64.7 ], [ "2004-04-01", 67.7 ], [ "2004-08-01", 64.8 ], [ "2004-12-01", 66.0 ], [ "2005-03-01", 67.5 ], [ "2005-07-01", 67.7 ], [ "2005-11-01", 69.0 ], [ "2006-02-01", 70.8 ], [ "2006-06-01", 71.4 ], [ "2006-10-01", 75.1 ], [ "2007-01-01", 78.5 ], [ "2007-05-01", 86.5 ], [ "2007-09-01", 105.3 ], [ "2007-12-01", 114.7 ], [ "2008-04-01", 130.7 ], [ "2008-08-01", 121.2 ], [ "2008-11-01", 89.7 ], [ "2009-03-01", 84.3 ], [ "2009-07-01", 90.7 ], [ "2009-10-01", 94.8 ], [ "2010-02-01", 99.3 ], [ "2010-06-01", 95.9 ], [ "2010-09-01", 114.1 ], [ "2011-01-01", 133.8 ], [ "2011-05-01", 135.1 ], [ "2011-08-01", 132.7 ], [ "2011-12-01", 121.9 ], [ "2012-04-01", 124.4 ], [ "2012-07-01", 122.0 ], [ "2012-11-01", 123.5 ], [ "2013-03-01", 122.9 ], [ "2013-06-01", 120.9 ], [ "2013-10-01", 118.7 ], [ "2014-02-01", 118.6 ], [ "2014-05-01", 121.2 ], [ "2014-09-01", 109.2 ], [ "2014-12-01", 105.2 ], [ "2015-04-01", 94.6 ], [ "2015-08-01", 89.5 ], [ "2015-11-01", 87.7 ], [ "2016-03-01", 87.4 ], [ "2016-07-01", 93.0 ], [ "2016-10-01", 95.9 ], [ "2017-02-01", 98.1 ], [ "2017-06-01", 97.8 ], [ "2017-09-01", 99.7 ], [ "2018-01-01", 96.7 ], [ "2018-05-01", 98.5 ], [ "2018-08-01", 95.8 ], [ "2018-12-01", 92.0 ], [ "2019-04-01", 93.5 ], [ "2019-07-01", 95.1 ], [ "2019-11-01", 98.2 ], [ "2020-03-01", 95.2 ], [ "2020-06-01", 93.1 ], [ "2020-10-01", 101.3 ], [ "2021-02-01", 116.5 ], [ "2021-05-01", 128.4 ], [ "2021-09-01", 129.1 ], [ "2022-01-01", 135.7 ], [ "2022-04-01", 158.8 ], [ "2022-08-01", 138.7 ], [ "2022-12-01", 133.1 ], [ "2023-03-01", 128.0 ], [ "2023-07-01", 124.4 ], [ "2023-11-01", 120.6 ], [ "2024-02-01", 117.4 ], [ "2024-06-01", 121.0 ], [ "2024-10-01", 126.9 ], [ "2025-01-01", 124.6 ], [ "2025-05-01", 127.1 ], [ "2025-09-01", 128.6 ], [ "2025-12-01", 124.5 ], [ "2026-04-01", 131.0 ], [ "2026-07-01", 131.1 ] ], "key": "food_price", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "overshoot_day": { "label": "Earth Overshoot Day", "pillar": "planetar", "weight": 0.9, "unit": "Tag im Jahr", "danger": "low", "decimals": 0, "raw": 211.0, "as_of": "2026-12-31", "start": "1972-12-31", "n": 55, "percentile": 1.8, "pressure": 98.2, "zscore": 1.33, "tau": -0.896, "trend_flag": true, "extreme_since": null, "change_10y": -16.0, "change_30y": -74.0, "note": "Der Tag, an dem die Menschheit die Jahresleistung der Biosph\u00e4re aufgebraucht hat. 1972 lag er im Dezember. Der Wert ist eine Modellrechnung des Global Footprint Network mit erheblicher Unsicherheit \u2014 als Richtung belastbar, als Punktwert nicht.", "source": "Global Footprint Network / overshootday.org (ab 1972)", "spark": [ [ "1972-12-31", 366.0 ], [ "1973-12-31", 350.0 ], [ "1974-12-31", 346.0 ], [ "1975-12-31", 346.0 ], [ "1976-12-31", 337.0 ], [ "1977-12-31", 331.0 ], [ "1978-12-31", 322.0 ], [ "1979-12-31", 311.0 ], [ "1980-12-31", 334.0 ], [ "1981-12-31", 335.0 ], [ "1982-12-31", 342.0 ], [ "1983-12-31", 349.0 ], [ "1984-12-31", 332.0 ], [ "1985-12-31", 321.0 ], [ "1986-12-31", 317.0 ], [ "1987-12-31", 309.0 ], [ "1988-12-31", 298.0 ], [ "1989-12-31", 295.0 ], [ "1990-12-31", 296.0 ], [ "1991-12-31", 300.0 ], [ "1992-12-31", 312.0 ], [ "1993-12-31", 307.0 ], [ "1994-12-31", 299.0 ], [ "1995-12-31", 290.0 ], [ "1996-12-31", 285.0 ], [ "1997-12-31", 285.0 ], [ "1998-12-31", 286.0 ], [ "1999-12-31", 275.0 ], [ "2000-12-31", 267.0 ], [ "2001-12-31", 261.0 ], [ "2002-12-31", 269.0 ], [ "2003-12-31", 261.0 ], [ "2004-12-31", 251.0 ], [ "2005-12-31", 244.0 ], [ "2006-12-31", 240.0 ], [ "2007-12-31", 232.0 ], [ "2008-12-31", 234.0 ], [ "2009-12-31", 240.0 ], [ "2010-12-31", 227.0 ], [ "2011-12-31", 222.0 ], [ "2012-12-31", 220.0 ], [ "2013-12-31", 219.0 ], [ "2014-12-31", 221.0 ], [ "2015-12-31", 224.0 ], [ "2016-12-31", 227.0 ], [ "2017-12-31", 220.0 ], [ "2018-12-31", 216.0 ], [ "2019-12-31", 218.0 ], [ "2020-12-31", 231.0 ], [ "2021-12-31", 217.0 ], [ "2022-12-31", 214.0 ], [ "2023-12-31", 214.0 ], [ "2024-12-31", 214.0 ], [ "2025-12-31", 213.0 ], [ "2026-12-31", 211.0 ] ], "key": "overshoot_day", "group": "stoffstrom", "group_label": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" } }, "psi": { "available": true, "psi": 42.2, "level": "HOCH", "verdict": "Krisenkonstellation weitgehend beisammen", "components": { "mmp": { "label": "Massenmobilisierungspotenzial", "short": "MMP", "question": "Wie stark verschlechtert sich die Lage der Mehrheit gegen\u00fcber dem Gesamtwohlstand?", "value": 60.4, "normalized": 0.604, "n_indicators": 5, "keys": [ "relative_wage", "labor_share", "housing_affordability", "life_expectancy", "real_wage_prod" ] }, "emp": { "label": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion", "short": "EMP", "question": "Wie viele Elitenanw\u00e4rter konkurrieren um wie wenige Posten?", "value": 80.4, "normalized": 0.804, "n_indicators": 5, "keys": [ "top1_income_share", "wealth_top1", "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "tuition_real", "elite_squeeze" ] }, "sfd": { "label": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise", "short": "SFD", "question": "Verliert der Staat die finanzielle Handlungsf\u00e4higkeit?", "value": 86.8, "normalized": 0.868, "n_indicators": 3, "keys": [ "debt_gdp", "interest_burden", "deficit_gdp" ] } }, "weakest": { "key": "mmp", "label": "Massenmobilisierungspotenzial", "value": 60.4 }, "method": "Produkt der drei auf 0\u20131 normierten Komponenten \u00d7 100. Multiplikativ wie bei Turchin: f\u00e4llt eine Bedingung aus, f\u00e4llt der Index. Perzentilbasierte Nachbildung mit US-Daten, nicht Turchins Originalreihe \u2014 Niveaus sind mit seinen Publikationen nicht direkt vergleichbar." }, "valves": { "valves": [ { "key": "zins", "label": "Zins-Ventil", "question": "Wie viel Zinssenkung bleibt der Notenbank f\u00fcr die n\u00e4chste Rezession?", "basis": "Aktueller Leitzins gegen den historisch typischen Senkungsbedarf. In den Rezessionen seit 1955 senkte die Fed im Mittel rund f\u00fcnf Prozentpunkte; was heute darunter liegt, fehlt im Ernstfall.", "room": 72.6, "status": "offen", "overshoot": null, "current": 3.63, "unit": "Prozentpunkte", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "reference_label": "typischer Zinssenkungsbedarf einer Rezession \u2248 5 Prozentpunkte", "reference_value": 5.0, "series_start": "1954-07-01", "spark": [ [ "1954-07-01", 0.8 ], [ "1955-03-01", 1.35 ], [ "1955-12-01", 2.48 ], [ "1956-08-01", 2.73 ], [ "1957-05-01", 3.0 ], [ "1958-02-01", 1.67 ], [ "1958-10-01", 1.8 ], [ "1959-07-01", 3.47 ], [ "1960-04-01", 3.92 ], [ "1960-12-01", 1.98 ], [ "1961-09-01", 1.88 ], [ "1962-06-01", 2.68 ], [ "1963-02-01", 3.0 ], [ "1963-11-01", 3.48 ], [ "1964-08-01", 3.5 ], [ "1965-04-01", 4.09 ], [ "1966-01-01", 4.42 ], [ "1966-10-01", 5.53 ], [ "1967-06-01", 3.98 ], [ "1968-03-01", 5.05 ], [ "1968-12-01", 6.02 ], [ "1969-08-01", 9.19 ], [ "1970-05-01", 7.95 ], [ "1971-01-01", 4.14 ], [ "1971-10-01", 5.2 ], [ "1972-07-01", 4.55 ], [ "1973-03-01", 7.09 ], [ "1973-12-01", 9.95 ], [ "1974-09-01", 11.34 ], [ "1975-05-01", 5.22 ], [ "1976-02-01", 4.77 ], [ "1976-11-01", 4.95 ], [ "1977-07-01", 5.42 ], [ "1978-04-01", 6.89 ], [ "1979-01-01", 10.07 ], [ "1979-09-01", 11.43 ], [ "1980-06-01", 9.47 ], [ "1981-03-01", 14.7 ], [ "1981-11-01", 13.31 ], [ "1982-08-01", 10.12 ], [ "1983-05-01", 8.63 ], [ "1984-01-01", 9.56 ], [ "1984-10-01", 9.99 ], [ "1985-06-01", 7.53 ], [ "1986-03-01", 7.48 ], [ "1986-12-01", 6.91 ], [ "1987-08-01", 6.73 ], [ "1988-05-01", 7.09 ], [ "1989-02-01", 9.36 ], [ "1989-10-01", 8.84 ], [ "1990-07-01", 8.15 ], [ "1991-04-01", 5.91 ], [ "1991-12-01", 4.43 ], [ "1992-09-01", 3.22 ], [ "1993-06-01", 3.04 ], [ "1994-02-01", 3.25 ], [ "1994-11-01", 5.29 ], [ "1995-08-01", 5.74 ], [ "1996-04-01", 5.22 ], [ "1997-01-01", 5.25 ], [ "1997-10-01", 5.5 ], [ "1998-06-01", 5.56 ], [ "1999-03-01", 4.81 ], [ "1999-11-01", 5.42 ], [ "2000-08-01", 6.5 ], [ "2001-05-01", 4.21 ], [ "2002-01-01", 1.73 ], [ "2002-10-01", 1.75 ], [ "2003-07-01", 1.01 ], [ "2004-03-01", 1.0 ], [ "2004-12-01", 2.16 ], [ "2005-09-01", 3.62 ], [ "2006-05-01", 4.94 ], [ "2007-02-01", 5.26 ], [ "2007-11-01", 4.49 ], [ "2008-07-01", 2.01 ], [ "2009-04-01", 0.15 ], [ "2010-01-01", 0.11 ], [ "2010-09-01", 0.19 ], [ "2011-06-01", 0.09 ], [ "2012-03-01", 0.13 ], [ "2012-11-01", 0.16 ], [ "2013-08-01", 0.08 ], [ "2014-04-01", 0.09 ], [ "2015-01-01", 0.11 ], [ "2015-10-01", 0.12 ], [ "2016-06-01", 0.38 ], [ "2017-03-01", 0.79 ], [ "2017-12-01", 1.3 ], [ "2018-08-01", 1.91 ], [ "2019-05-01", 2.39 ], [ "2020-02-01", 1.58 ], [ "2020-10-01", 0.09 ], [ "2021-07-01", 0.1 ], [ "2022-04-01", 0.33 ], [ "2022-12-01", 4.1 ], [ "2023-09-01", 5.33 ], [ "2024-06-01", 5.33 ], [ "2025-02-01", 4.33 ], [ "2025-11-01", 3.88 ], [ "2026-07-01", 3.63 ] ] }, { "key": "fiskal", "label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "question": "Kann der Staat noch gegensteuern, ohne dass die Zinslast ihn erdr\u00fcckt?", "basis": "Anteil der Bundeseinnahmen, der bereits f\u00fcr Zinsen gebunden ist, gegen eine Schwelle von 20 %. Die Schwelle ist eine Konvention, kein Naturgesetz \u2014 sie liegt knapp \u00fcber dem bisherigen H\u00f6chststand von 1991, ab dem in den USA politisch erzwungene Haushaltskonsolidierung einsetzte.", "room": 0.0, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "overshoot": 6.2, "current": 21.24, "unit": "% der Einnahmen", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "reference_label": "Belastungsschwelle 20 % der Bundeseinnahmen", "reference_value": 20.0, "series_start": "1947-01-01", "spark": [ [ "1947-01-01", 12.3315 ], [ "1947-10-01", 12.4289 ], [ "1948-07-01", 13.3413 ], [ "1949-04-01", 15.4232 ], [ "1950-01-01", 14.6304 ], [ "1950-10-01", 11.2008 ], [ "1951-10-01", 10.3415 ], [ "1952-07-01", 10.4963 ], [ "1953-04-01", 10.1614 ], [ "1954-01-01", 12.1887 ], [ "1954-10-01", 12.0465 ], [ "1955-07-01", 11.0717 ], [ "1956-07-01", 11.8271 ], [ "1957-04-01", 12.2412 ], [ "1958-01-01", 13.4536 ], [ "1958-10-01", 12.9368 ], [ "1959-07-01", 13.3019 ], [ "1960-07-01", 14.8169 ], [ "1961-04-01", 14.6634 ], [ "1962-01-01", 14.4383 ], [ "1962-10-01", 14.7831 ], [ "1963-07-01", 14.6356 ], [ "1964-04-01", 15.9595 ], [ "1965-04-01", 15.2894 ], [ "1966-01-01", 14.7316 ], [ "1966-10-01", 14.8991 ], [ "1967-07-01", 14.8812 ], [ "1968-04-01", 14.7697 ], [ "1969-04-01", 13.7862 ], [ "1970-01-01", 16.9117 ], [ "1970-10-01", 18.9456 ], [ "1971-07-01", 18.5549 ], [ "1972-04-01", 17.1774 ], [ "1973-01-01", 16.8826 ], [ "1974-01-01", 17.3659 ], [ "1974-10-01", 17.4243 ], [ "1975-07-01", 18.3998 ], [ "1976-04-01", 18.213 ], [ "1977-01-01", 17.8644 ], [ "1978-01-01", 19.1243 ], [ "1978-10-01", 18.456 ], [ "1979-07-01", 18.6507 ], [ "1980-04-01", 20.8113 ], [ "1981-01-01", 20.8001 ], [ "1981-10-01", 22.7466 ], [ "1982-10-01", 25.408 ], [ "1983-07-01", 26.3846 ], [ "1984-04-01", 26.6572 ], [ "1985-01-01", 26.6641 ], [ "1985-10-01", 27.6392 ], [ "1986-10-01", 26.6408 ], [ "1987-07-01", 25.6459 ], [ "1988-04-01", 25.7442 ], [ "1989-01-01", 25.5308 ], [ "1989-10-01", 25.9383 ], [ "1990-07-01", 26.7167 ], [ "1991-07-01", 27.3878 ], [ "1992-04-01", 26.8267 ], [ "1993-01-01", 26.2276 ], [ "1993-10-01", 24.205 ], [ "1994-07-01", 24.1799 ], [ "1995-04-01", 24.8545 ], [ "1996-04-01", 23.3274 ], [ "1997-01-01", 22.4226 ], [ "1997-10-01", 21.5041 ], [ "1998-07-01", 20.2496 ], [ "1999-04-01", 18.6794 ], [ "2000-04-01", 17.2209 ], [ "2001-01-01", 16.3652 ], [ "2001-10-01", 15.7933 ], [ "2002-07-01", 16.0548 ], [ "2003-04-01", 15.1789 ], [ "2004-01-01", 15.2598 ], [ "2005-01-01", 14.6874 ], [ "2005-10-01", 14.8823 ], [ "2006-07-01", 14.6828 ], [ "2007-04-01", 15.2536 ], [ "2008-01-01", 15.2892 ], [ "2009-01-01", 16.2825 ], [ "2009-10-01", 15.4066 ], [ "2010-07-01", 15.6746 ], [ "2011-04-01", 16.5045 ], [ "2012-01-01", 16.0792 ], [ "2012-10-01", 15.0535 ], [ "2013-10-01", 13.0944 ], [ "2014-07-01", 13.3822 ], [ "2015-04-01", 12.3607 ], [ "2016-01-01", 12.9508 ], [ "2016-10-01", 13.2186 ], [ "2017-10-01", 13.8885 ], [ "2018-07-01", 15.1935 ], [ "2019-04-01", 15.9371 ], [ "2020-01-01", 14.3522 ], [ "2020-10-01", 13.1033 ], [ "2021-07-01", 12.9981 ], [ "2022-07-01", 14.6052 ], [ "2023-04-01", 18.7467 ], [ "2024-01-01", 21.2289 ], [ "2024-10-01", 21.7499 ], [ "2025-07-01", 20.6985 ], [ "2026-04-01", 21.2351 ] ] }, { "key": "notenbank", "label": "Notenbankbilanz-Ventil", "question": "Wie viel Spielraum bleibt f\u00fcr Anleihek\u00e4ufe?", "basis": "Bilanzsumme der Fed im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum BIP, gemessen an ihrem eigenen historischen H\u00f6chststand. Wichtige Einschr\u00e4nkung: F\u00fcr Anleihek\u00e4ufe gibt es keine harte Obergrenze \u2014 die Schranke ist die Inflations- und Vertrauenstoleranz, und die ist nicht direkt messbar.", "room": 49.1, "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt", "overshoot": null, "current": 20.78, "unit": "% des BIP", "as_of": "2026-08-05", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 2002", "reference_value": 35.16, "series_start": "2002-12-18", "spark": [ [ "2002-12-18", 6.4394 ], [ "2003-03-12", 6.3381 ], [ "2003-06-04", 6.3257 ], [ "2003-09-03", 6.3748 ], [ "2003-11-26", 6.3485 ], [ "2004-02-18", 6.2641 ], [ "2004-05-19", 6.1508 ], [ "2004-08-11", 6.2515 ], [ "2004-11-03", 6.3107 ], [ "2005-02-02", 6.3032 ], [ "2005-04-27", 6.2665 ], [ "2005-07-20", 6.2149 ], [ "2005-10-19", 6.1113 ], [ "2006-01-11", 6.0986 ], [ "2006-04-05", 6.0682 ], [ "2006-07-05", 6.1402 ], [ "2006-09-27", 6.0541 ], [ "2006-12-20", 6.0849 ], [ "2007-03-21", 5.9927 ], [ "2007-06-13", 5.9392 ], [ "2007-09-05", 5.9202 ], [ "2007-12-05", 6.0025 ], [ "2008-02-27", 6.0127 ], [ "2008-05-21", 6.0305 ], [ "2008-08-20", 6.1514 ], [ "2008-11-12", 15.148 ], [ "2009-02-04", 12.8297 ], [ "2009-05-06", 14.4616 ], [ "2009-07-29", 13.8457 ], [ "2009-10-21", 15.0234 ], [ "2010-01-20", 15.2514 ], [ "2010-04-14", 15.6163 ], [ "2010-07-07", 15.4014 ], [ "2010-10-06", 15.0762 ], [ "2010-12-29", 15.7677 ], [ "2011-03-23", 16.7208 ], [ "2011-06-22", 18.2545 ], [ "2011-09-14", 18.0753 ], [ "2011-12-07", 17.5538 ], [ "2012-03-07", 17.7993 ], [ "2012-05-30", 17.4187 ], [ "2012-08-22", 17.2082 ], [ "2012-11-21", 17.2461 ], [ "2013-02-13", 18.4658 ], [ "2013-05-08", 19.8737 ], [ "2013-08-07", 21.1478 ], [ "2013-10-30", 22.3557 ], [ "2014-01-22", 23.8282 ], [ "2014-04-23", 24.5246 ], [ "2014-07-16", 24.7031 ], [ "2014-10-15", 24.9796 ], [ "2015-01-07", 24.9094 ], [ "2015-04-01", 24.5178 ], [ "2015-07-01", 24.3409 ], [ "2015-09-23", 24.3963 ], [ "2015-12-16", 24.2341 ], [ "2016-03-16", 23.9761 ], [ "2016-06-08", 23.6258 ], [ "2016-08-31", 23.3528 ], [ "2016-11-30", 23.0617 ], [ "2017-02-22", 22.9888 ], [ "2017-05-17", 22.6842 ], [ "2017-08-16", 22.6627 ], [ "2017-11-08", 22.2515 ], [ "2018-01-31", 21.739 ], [ "2018-05-02", 21.1659 ], [ "2018-07-25", 20.567 ], [ "2018-10-17", 19.9611 ], [ "2019-01-16", 19.184 ], [ "2019-04-10", 18.398 ], [ "2019-07-03", 17.5584 ], [ "2019-10-02", 17.9902 ], [ "2019-12-25", 19.1511 ], [ "2020-03-18", 23.3898 ], [ "2020-06-17", 32.6877 ], [ "2020-09-09", 31.7407 ], [ "2020-12-02", 31.8439 ], [ "2021-03-03", 32.2614 ], [ "2021-05-26", 32.9556 ], [ "2021-08-18", 33.6211 ], [ "2021-11-17", 34.3558 ], [ "2022-02-09", 35.1599 ], [ "2022-05-04", 34.5689 ], [ "2022-08-03", 33.6973 ], [ "2022-10-26", 32.5847 ], [ "2023-01-18", 31.1908 ], [ "2023-04-19", 31.2141 ], [ "2023-07-12", 29.5529 ], [ "2023-10-04", 27.989 ], [ "2024-01-03", 26.7555 ], [ "2024-03-27", 25.6792 ], [ "2024-06-19", 24.5752 ], [ "2024-09-18", 23.836 ], [ "2024-12-11", 22.9594 ], [ "2025-03-05", 22.1637 ], [ "2025-06-04", 21.4576 ], [ "2025-08-27", 21.0148 ], [ "2025-11-19", 20.5716 ], [ "2026-02-18", 20.3644 ], [ "2026-05-13", 20.7189 ], [ "2026-08-05", 20.7807 ] ] }, { "key": "globalisierung", "label": "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "question": "Lassen sich Kosten weiter \u00fcber die Ausweitung des Weltmarkts dr\u00fccken?", "basis": "Welthandel im Verh\u00e4ltnis zur Weltwirtschaftsleistung, gemessen an seinem eigenen H\u00f6chststand. Der Weltmarkt ist heute so tief integriert wie nie; je n\u00e4her am Maximum, desto weniger zus\u00e4tzliche Kostenentlastung ist aus weiterer Integration noch zu holen. Der vorl\u00e4ufige Jahrgang 2025 wird vom Revisionsfilter verworfen \u2014 die Weltbank meldete dort einen Sprung um zw\u00f6lf Prozentpunkte, den es real nicht gegeben hat.", "room": 14.9, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "overshoot": null, "current": 56.72, "unit": "% des BIP", "as_of": "2024-12-31", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 1970", "reference_value": 62.15, "series_start": "1970-12-31", "spark": [ [ "1970-12-31", 25.7517 ], [ "1971-12-31", 25.7872 ], [ "1972-12-31", 25.9755 ], [ "1973-12-31", 29.0 ], [ "1974-12-31", 33.7438 ], [ "1975-12-31", 31.9417 ], [ "1976-12-31", 32.7264 ], [ "1977-12-31", 33.0914 ], [ "1978-12-31", 33.4872 ], [ "1979-12-31", 35.6586 ], [ "1980-12-31", 38.633 ], [ "1981-12-31", 39.0665 ], [ "1982-12-31", 37.06 ], [ "1983-12-31", 36.2191 ], [ "1984-12-31", 37.5128 ], [ "1985-12-31", 37.0591 ], [ "1986-12-31", 34.5896 ], [ "1987-12-31", 35.8556 ], [ "1988-12-31", 37.6634 ], [ "1989-12-31", 38.0541 ], [ "1990-12-31", 38.1012 ], [ "1991-12-31", 37.7627 ], [ "1992-12-31", 40.6473 ], [ "1993-12-31", 40.1719 ], [ "1994-12-31", 41.0188 ], [ "1995-12-31", 42.7421 ], [ "1996-12-31", 42.8247 ], [ "1997-12-31", 44.6337 ], [ "1998-12-31", 45.2911 ], [ "1999-12-31", 45.7602 ], [ "2000-12-31", 50.1204 ], [ "2001-12-31", 49.011 ], [ "2002-12-31", 49.0032 ], [ "2003-12-31", 50.6554 ], [ "2004-12-31", 54.1946 ], [ "2005-12-31", 56.2196 ], [ "2006-12-31", 58.3626 ], [ "2007-12-31", 58.7424 ], [ "2008-12-31", 60.3226 ], [ "2009-12-31", 51.8943 ], [ "2010-12-31", 56.1928 ], [ "2011-12-31", 59.3107 ], [ "2012-12-31", 59.2954 ], [ "2013-12-31", 58.6308 ], [ "2014-12-31", 58.0268 ], [ "2015-12-31", 55.6182 ], [ "2016-12-31", 53.7909 ], [ "2017-12-31", 55.4552 ], [ "2018-12-31", 56.9897 ], [ "2019-12-31", 55.8007 ], [ "2020-12-31", 51.8676 ], [ "2021-12-31", 56.499 ], [ "2022-12-31", 62.1471 ], [ "2023-12-31", 58.0659 ], [ "2024-12-31", 56.7228 ] ] }, { "key": "haushalte", "label": "Privatverschuldungs-Ventil", "question": "K\u00f6nnen private Haushalte noch mehr Nachfrage auf Kredit vorziehen?", "basis": "Schuldendienstquote der Haushalte gegen ihren eigenen H\u00f6chststand von 2007. Dieses Ventil wurde nach 2008 tats\u00e4chlich entlastet \u2014 das Panel zeigt hier bewusst, wo noch Weg ist.", "room": 68.9, "status": "offen", "overshoot": null, "current": 11.16, "unit": "% des verf\u00fcgbaren Einkommens", "as_of": "2026-01-01", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 2005", "reference_value": 15.85, "series_start": "2005-01-01", "spark": [ [ "2005-01-01", 14.7998 ], [ "2005-04-01", 14.8286 ], [ "2005-07-01", 15.14 ], [ "2005-10-01", 15.0285 ], [ "2006-01-01", 14.9894 ], [ "2006-04-01", 15.0443 ], [ "2006-07-01", 15.3672 ], [ "2006-10-01", 15.5097 ], [ "2007-01-01", 15.5266 ], [ "2007-04-01", 15.6325 ], [ "2007-07-01", 15.7121 ], [ "2007-10-01", 15.8464 ], [ "2008-01-01", 15.7759 ], [ "2008-04-01", 15.3266 ], [ "2008-07-01", 15.5465 ], [ "2008-10-01", 15.7214 ], [ "2009-01-01", 15.5975 ], [ "2009-04-01", 15.252 ], [ "2009-07-01", 15.0859 ], [ "2009-10-01", 14.8964 ], [ "2010-01-01", 14.5149 ], [ "2010-04-01", 14.0698 ], [ "2010-07-01", 13.9178 ], [ "2010-10-01", 13.5809 ], [ "2011-01-01", 13.3085 ], [ "2011-04-01", 13.0577 ], [ "2011-07-01", 12.9446 ], [ "2011-10-01", 12.7497 ], [ "2012-01-01", 12.2371 ], [ "2012-04-01", 12.0341 ], [ "2012-07-01", 12.0831 ], [ "2012-10-01", 11.754 ], [ "2013-01-01", 12.0066 ], [ "2013-04-01", 11.7944 ], [ "2013-07-01", 11.8377 ], [ "2013-10-01", 11.9853 ], [ "2014-01-01", 11.8838 ], [ "2014-04-01", 11.6211 ], [ "2014-07-01", 11.6469 ], [ "2014-10-01", 11.632 ], [ "2015-01-01", 11.5566 ], [ "2015-04-01", 11.4851 ], [ "2015-07-01", 11.6065 ], [ "2015-10-01", 11.739 ], [ "2016-01-01", 11.7632 ], [ "2016-04-01", 11.7661 ], [ "2016-07-01", 11.7699 ], [ "2016-10-01", 11.8658 ], [ "2017-01-01", 11.7238 ], [ "2017-04-01", 11.757 ], [ "2017-07-01", 11.8184 ], [ "2017-10-01", 11.8167 ], [ "2018-01-01", 11.6446 ], [ "2018-04-01", 11.5984 ], [ "2018-07-01", 11.6196 ], [ "2018-10-01", 11.6664 ], [ "2019-01-01", 11.4999 ], [ "2019-04-01", 11.627 ], [ "2019-07-01", 11.6466 ], [ "2019-10-01", 11.7277 ], [ "2020-01-01", 11.5912 ], [ "2020-04-01", 9.7398 ], [ "2020-07-01", 10.0585 ], [ "2020-10-01", 10.3894 ], [ "2021-01-01", 9.0515 ], [ "2021-04-01", 9.841 ], [ "2021-07-01", 10.0096 ], [ "2021-10-01", 10.2288 ], [ "2022-01-01", 10.4724 ], [ "2022-04-01", 10.6847 ], [ "2022-07-01", 10.5678 ], [ "2022-10-01", 10.7369 ], [ "2023-01-01", 10.5641 ], [ "2023-04-01", 10.577 ], [ "2023-07-01", 10.7478 ], [ "2023-10-01", 11.0961 ], [ "2024-01-01", 11.0589 ], [ "2024-04-01", 11.0194 ], [ "2024-07-01", 11.1388 ], [ "2024-10-01", 11.1225 ], [ "2025-01-01", 11.1054 ], [ "2025-04-01", 11.1242 ], [ "2025-07-01", 11.2295 ], [ "2025-10-01", 11.3228 ], [ "2026-01-01", 11.1641 ] ] }, { "key": "demografie", "label": "Arbeitskr\u00e4fte-Ventil", "question": "Kann Wachstum noch aus zus\u00e4tzlichen Erwerbst\u00e4tigen kommen?", "basis": "Erwerbsbeteiligung gegen ihren historischen H\u00f6chststand von 2000. Die Ausweitung des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials \u2014 vor allem durch die Erwerbst\u00e4tigkeit von Frauen ab den 1960ern \u2014 war ein tragender Wachstumsbeitrag, der so kein zweites Mal verf\u00fcgbar ist.", "room": 35.9, "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt", "overshoot": null, "current": 61.4, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 1948", "reference_value": 58.1, "series_start": "1948-01-01", "spark": [ [ "1948-01-01", 58.6 ], [ "1948-10-01", 58.7 ], [ "1949-07-01", 58.9 ], [ "1950-05-01", 59.1 ], [ "1951-02-01", 59.1 ], [ "1951-12-01", 59.6 ], [ "1952-09-01", 59.2 ], [ "1953-06-01", 58.9 ], [ "1954-04-01", 59.2 ], [ "1955-01-01", 58.6 ], [ "1955-11-01", 59.9 ], [ "1956-08-01", 60.0 ], [ "1957-06-01", 59.8 ], [ "1958-03-01", 59.3 ], [ "1958-12-01", 59.2 ], [ "1959-10-01", 59.4 ], [ "1960-07-01", 59.5 ], [ "1961-05-01", 59.4 ], [ "1962-02-01", 59.0 ], [ "1962-11-01", 58.5 ], [ "1963-09-01", 58.7 ], [ "1964-06-01", 58.7 ], [ "1965-04-01", 58.8 ], [ "1966-01-01", 59.0 ], [ "1966-11-01", 59.6 ], [ "1967-08-01", 59.7 ], [ "1968-05-01", 59.9 ], [ "1969-03-01", 59.9 ], [ "1969-12-01", 60.2 ], [ "1970-10-01", 60.4 ], [ "1971-07-01", 60.1 ], [ "1972-05-01", 60.4 ], [ "1973-02-01", 60.5 ], [ "1973-11-01", 61.2 ], [ "1974-09-01", 61.4 ], [ "1975-06-01", 61.2 ], [ "1976-04-01", 61.6 ], [ "1977-01-01", 61.6 ], [ "1977-10-01", 62.4 ], [ "1978-08-01", 63.2 ], [ "1979-05-01", 63.3 ], [ "1980-03-01", 63.7 ], [ "1980-12-01", 63.6 ], [ "1981-10-01", 63.8 ], [ "1982-07-01", 64.0 ], [ "1983-04-01", 63.8 ], [ "1984-02-01", 64.1 ], [ "1984-11-01", 64.5 ], [ "1985-09-01", 64.9 ], [ "1986-06-01", 65.4 ], [ "1987-04-01", 65.4 ], [ "1988-01-01", 65.8 ], [ "1988-10-01", 66.0 ], [ "1989-08-01", 66.5 ], [ "1990-05-01", 66.6 ], [ "1991-03-01", 66.3 ], [ "1991-12-01", 66.0 ], [ "1992-09-01", 66.5 ], [ "1993-07-01", 66.4 ], [ "1994-04-01", 66.5 ], [ "1995-02-01", 66.8 ], [ "1995-11-01", 66.5 ], [ "1996-09-01", 66.9 ], [ "1997-06-01", 67.1 ], [ "1998-03-01", 67.1 ], [ "1999-01-01", 67.2 ], [ "1999-10-01", 67.0 ], [ "2000-08-01", 66.9 ], [ "2001-05-01", 66.7 ], [ "2002-02-01", 66.8 ], [ "2002-12-01", 66.3 ], [ "2003-09-01", 66.1 ], [ "2004-07-01", 66.1 ], [ "2005-04-01", 66.1 ], [ "2006-02-01", 66.1 ], [ "2006-11-01", 66.3 ], [ "2007-08-01", 65.8 ], [ "2008-06-01", 66.1 ], [ "2009-03-01", 65.6 ], [ "2010-01-01", 64.8 ], [ "2010-10-01", 64.4 ], [ "2011-08-01", 64.1 ], [ "2012-05-01", 63.7 ], [ "2013-02-01", 63.4 ], [ "2013-12-01", 62.9 ], [ "2014-09-01", 62.8 ], [ "2015-07-01", 62.6 ], [ "2016-04-01", 62.9 ], [ "2017-01-01", 62.8 ], [ "2017-11-01", 62.7 ], [ "2018-08-01", 62.6 ], [ "2019-06-01", 63.0 ], [ "2020-03-01", 62.6 ], [ "2021-01-01", 61.4 ], [ "2021-10-01", 61.8 ], [ "2022-07-01", 62.1 ], [ "2023-05-01", 62.6 ], [ "2024-02-01", 62.6 ], [ "2024-12-01", 62.5 ], [ "2025-09-01", 62.5 ], [ "2026-07-01", 61.4 ] ] }, { "key": "legitimation", "label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "question": "Tr\u00e4gt die Bev\u00f6lkerung weitere Zumutungen noch mit?", "basis": "Verbrauchervertrauen gegen seine eigene Spanne seit 1952. Steht stellvertretend f\u00fcr die Bereitschaft, als alternativlos erkl\u00e4rte Verschlechterungen hinzunehmen \u2014 der schw\u00e4chste Messwert im Ventilpanel, weil Zustimmung sich schlechter quantifizieren l\u00e4sst als Zinsen.", "room": 7.0, "status": "ersch\u00f6pft", "overshoot": null, "current": 49.5, "unit": "Index", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "reference_label": "historisches Extrem der eigenen Reihe seit 1952", "reference_value": 44.8, "series_start": "1952-11-01", "spark": [ [ "1952-11-01", 86.2 ], [ "1954-11-01", 87.0 ], [ "1957-05-01", 92.9 ], [ "1960-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "1961-08-01", 99.2 ], [ "1963-05-01", 91.7 ], [ "1965-02-01", 102.0 ], [ "1966-11-01", 88.3 ], [ "1968-05-01", 92.4 ], [ "1970-02-01", 78.1 ], [ "1971-11-01", 82.0 ], [ "1973-08-01", 72.0 ], [ "1975-02-01", 57.6 ], [ "1976-11-01", 87.0 ], [ "1978-03-01", 78.8 ], [ "1978-10-01", 79.3 ], [ "1979-04-01", 66.0 ], [ "1979-11-01", 63.3 ], [ "1980-06-01", 58.7 ], [ "1981-01-01", 71.4 ], [ "1981-07-01", 74.1 ], [ "1982-02-01", 66.5 ], [ "1982-09-01", 69.3 ], [ "1983-04-01", 89.1 ], [ "1983-10-01", 89.3 ], [ "1984-05-01", 98.1 ], [ "1984-12-01", 92.9 ], [ "1985-06-01", 96.5 ], [ "1986-01-01", 95.6 ], [ "1986-08-01", 94.9 ], [ "1987-03-01", 90.8 ], [ "1987-09-01", 93.6 ], [ "1988-04-01", 91.2 ], [ "1988-11-01", 93.0 ], [ "1989-06-01", 90.6 ], [ "1989-12-01", 90.5 ], [ "1990-07-01", 88.2 ], [ "1991-02-01", 70.4 ], [ "1991-09-01", 83.0 ], [ "1992-03-01", 76.0 ], [ "1992-10-01", 73.3 ], [ "1993-05-01", 80.3 ], [ "1993-12-01", 88.2 ], [ "1994-06-01", 91.2 ], [ "1995-01-01", 97.6 ], [ "1995-08-01", 96.2 ], [ "1996-03-01", 93.7 ], [ "1996-09-01", 94.7 ], [ "1997-04-01", 101.4 ], [ "1997-11-01", 107.2 ], [ "1998-06-01", 105.6 ], [ "1998-12-01", 100.5 ], [ "1999-07-01", 106.0 ], [ "2000-02-01", 111.3 ], [ "2000-08-01", 107.3 ], [ "2001-03-01", 91.5 ], [ "2001-10-01", 82.7 ], [ "2002-05-01", 96.9 ], [ "2002-11-01", 84.2 ], [ "2003-06-01", 89.7 ], [ "2004-01-01", 103.8 ], [ "2004-08-01", 95.9 ], [ "2005-02-01", 94.1 ], [ "2005-09-01", 76.9 ], [ "2006-04-01", 87.4 ], [ "2006-11-01", 92.1 ], [ "2007-05-01", 88.3 ], [ "2007-12-01", 75.5 ], [ "2008-07-01", 61.2 ], [ "2009-02-01", 56.3 ], [ "2009-08-01", 65.7 ], [ "2010-03-01", 73.6 ], [ "2010-10-01", 67.7 ], [ "2011-05-01", 74.3 ], [ "2011-11-01", 63.7 ], [ "2012-06-01", 73.2 ], [ "2013-01-01", 73.8 ], [ "2013-07-01", 85.1 ], [ "2014-02-01", 81.6 ], [ "2014-09-01", 84.6 ], [ "2015-04-01", 95.9 ], [ "2015-10-01", 90.0 ], [ "2016-05-01", 94.7 ], [ "2016-12-01", 98.2 ], [ "2017-07-01", 93.4 ], [ "2018-01-01", 95.7 ], [ "2018-08-01", 96.2 ], [ "2019-03-01", 98.4 ], [ "2019-10-01", 95.5 ], [ "2020-04-01", 71.8 ], [ "2020-11-01", 76.9 ], [ "2021-06-01", 85.5 ], [ "2022-01-01", 67.2 ], [ "2022-07-01", 51.5 ], [ "2023-02-01", 66.9 ], [ "2023-09-01", 67.8 ], [ "2024-04-01", 77.2 ], [ "2024-10-01", 70.5 ], [ "2025-05-01", 52.2 ], [ "2025-12-01", 52.9 ], [ "2026-06-01", 49.5 ] ] }, { "key": "oekologie", "label": "\u00d6kologisches Ventil", "question": "Wie viele planetare Grenzen sind noch nicht \u00fcberschritten?", "basis": "Feste Zahl aus dem Planetary Health Check 2025: Von neun planetaren Grenzen gelten sieben als \u00fcberschritten \u2014 die Ozeanversauerung erstmals in diesem Bericht. Nicht \u00fcberschritten sind nur die Aerosolbelastung und die stratosph\u00e4rische Ozonschicht, letztere ausgerechnet dank des einzigen erfolgreich umgesetzten globalen Umweltabkommens.", "room": 22.2, "status": "eng", "overshoot": null, "current": 7.0, "unit": "Grenzen", "as_of": "2025-12-31", "reference_label": "2 von 9 planetaren Grenzen noch eingehalten (Planetary Health Check 2025)", "reference_value": 9, "series_start": "2025-12-31", "spark": [ [ "2025-12-31", 7.0 ] ] } ], "mean_room": 33.8, "n_tight": 4, "n_total": 8, "method": "Restweg = Abstand zum offengelegten Referenzpunkt. Bei \u201eBedarf\u201c ist der Referenzpunkt ein begr\u00fcndeter Bedarfswert, bei \u201eSpanne\u201c das angespannteste je gemessene Niveau der Reihe selbst. Beides sind gesetzte Konventionen, keine Naturkonstanten." }, "csd": { "series": [ { "tau_ar1": 0.824, "tau_variance": 0.756, "strength": 0.756, "verdict": "Resilienzverlust deutlich", "level": "kritisch", "window_points": 40, "n_points": 80, "ar1_latest": 0.842, "ar1_first": 0.525, "track": [ { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.5248, "var": 2.627583 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.5034, "var": 2.548425 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.5176, "var": 2.579493 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.5305, "var": 2.578617 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.5007, "var": 2.562637 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.5216, "var": 2.497776 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.5407, "var": 2.573077 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.5496, "var": 2.584334 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.5616, "var": 2.574249 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.6114, "var": 2.505014 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.5978, "var": 2.42762 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.5752, "var": 2.336554 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.5526, "var": 2.365434 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.561, "var": 2.527603 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.5451, "var": 2.930179 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.6336, "var": 3.518525 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.6975, "var": 3.667356 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.707, "var": 3.708608 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.6917, "var": 3.654106 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.6623, "var": 3.469206 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.6603, "var": 3.267002 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.6495, "var": 3.150925 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.6773, "var": 3.042048 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.632, "var": 3.218017 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.6372, "var": 3.751533 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.6902, "var": 4.21441 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.7247, "var": 4.669675 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.741, "var": 5.242301 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.7903, "var": 5.653718 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.8077, "var": 5.855451 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.8129, "var": 5.957999 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.8278, "var": 6.001813 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.8398, "var": 6.107789 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.8456, "var": 6.209674 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.8476, "var": 6.162135 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.8418, "var": 6.185822 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.8513, "var": 6.259847 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.8416, "var": 6.634081 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.8559, "var": 6.849106 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.8681, "var": 7.058158 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.8423, "var": 7.732639 } ], "key": "labor_share", "label": "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "why": "Verteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe des Klassenverh\u00e4ltnisses" }, { "tau_ar1": 0.333, "tau_variance": 0.144, "strength": 0.144, "verdict": "schwaches Signal", "level": "schwach", "window_points": 37, "n_points": 75, "ar1_latest": 0.733, "ar1_first": 0.693, "track": [ { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.693, "var": 112.819924 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.694, "var": 113.200812 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.6802, "var": 112.26602 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.7009, "var": 112.367315 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.696, "var": 112.316763 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.717, "var": 109.450051 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.704, "var": 111.010015 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.7199, "var": 111.885522 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.7183, "var": 112.9473 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.7002, "var": 120.247041 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.7147, "var": 128.13825 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.7296, "var": 135.322387 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.7348, "var": 143.228619 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.7141, "var": 138.509573 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.7309, "var": 130.379472 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.7255, "var": 128.773977 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.7135, "var": 128.561992 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.7206, "var": 127.388133 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.7279, "var": 127.306989 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.7314, "var": 124.137262 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.6828, "var": 133.591637 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.724, "var": 140.411133 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.7176, "var": 141.527745 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.7182, "var": 136.484534 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.7673, "var": 131.954795 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.7702, "var": 132.345856 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.7725, "var": 132.249857 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.7392, "var": 134.096586 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.7111, "var": 125.215522 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.6998, "var": 116.081542 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.6703, "var": 113.780593 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.7606, "var": 105.375316 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.7637, "var": 105.187269 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.7652, "var": 104.157896 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.6971, "var": 117.19346 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.739, "var": 121.843408 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.7504, "var": 122.7697 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.7122, "var": 132.960585 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.7334, "var": 148.964679 } ], "key": "consumer_sentiment", "label": "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "why": "Erlebte Legitimit\u00e4t \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der gesellschaftlichen Stimmung" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.024, "tau_variance": 0.778, "strength": -0.024, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 40, "n_points": 80, "ar1_latest": 0.818, "ar1_first": 0.673, "track": [ { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.6731, "var": 1.206681 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.6937, "var": 1.212599 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.7558, "var": 1.141409 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.7324, "var": 1.190779 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.8087, "var": 1.139843 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.8261, "var": 1.191298 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.8335, "var": 1.24177 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.8396, "var": 1.293187 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.8564, "var": 1.304767 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.8584, "var": 1.293367 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.8643, "var": 1.283283 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.8665, "var": 1.282933 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.8579, "var": 1.295845 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.8616, "var": 1.323975 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.8499, "var": 1.383278 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.8521, "var": 1.464158 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.8706, "var": 1.503212 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.8785, "var": 1.510606 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.8579, "var": 1.521574 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.8031, "var": 1.651177 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.8207, "var": 1.806895 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.8503, "var": 1.881285 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.8491, "var": 1.876505 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.841, "var": 1.890731 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.8106, "var": 2.007481 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.8314, "var": 2.071249 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.8071, "var": 2.27395 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.8258, "var": 2.354089 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.8464, "var": 2.403738 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.854, "var": 2.420241 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.8479, "var": 2.386402 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.8321, "var": 2.330114 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.8178, "var": 2.203195 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.8379, "var": 2.040602 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.8445, "var": 2.003148 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.8133, "var": 2.151605 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.8348, "var": 2.210026 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.8395, "var": 2.258011 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.8363, "var": 2.308125 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.8236, "var": 2.279646 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.818, "var": 2.196648 } ], "key": "profit_share", "label": "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "why": "Gewinnquote \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der Verwertung" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.141, "tau_variance": 0.849, "strength": -0.141, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 40, "n_points": 81, "ar1_latest": 0.897, "ar1_first": 0.814, "track": [ { "date": "1985-12-31", "ar1": 0.8139, "var": 60.424089 }, { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.776, "var": 59.828118 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.7874, "var": 65.955128 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.7974, "var": 73.980061 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.8802, "var": 74.774567 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.8944, "var": 81.246716 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.9034, "var": 86.912301 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.9231, "var": 89.321728 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.9367, "var": 90.52595 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.9424, "var": 90.775002 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.9435, "var": 90.848929 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.9416, "var": 90.934202 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.9354, "var": 91.931336 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.9354, "var": 92.833785 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.9304, "var": 94.493329 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.9136, "var": 97.933731 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.9178, "var": 100.119096 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.9211, "var": 100.948269 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.9267, "var": 99.521864 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.9293, "var": 97.127639 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.935, "var": 95.741235 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.93, "var": 96.221825 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.9191, "var": 99.068433 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.8886, "var": 108.820817 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.8355, "var": 134.63608 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.8739, "var": 154.293164 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.8945, "var": 169.777413 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.9052, "var": 182.484021 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.9146, "var": 191.69636 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.9197, "var": 197.990276 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.9205, "var": 200.777106 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.914, "var": 203.063832 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.9163, "var": 201.460583 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.9155, "var": 196.992589 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.9152, "var": 190.42411 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.794, "var": 216.979484 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.8453, "var": 217.970286 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.8638, "var": 213.193583 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.8705, "var": 204.590373 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.8868, "var": 196.688155 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.8978, "var": 194.391337 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.8971, "var": 194.485502 } ], "key": "total_debt_gdp", "label": "Gesamtverschuldung \u00f7 BIP", "why": "Verschuldungsgrad \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe des Kreditsystems" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.506, "tau_variance": -0.278, "strength": -0.506, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 63, "n_points": 127, "ar1_latest": 0.584, "ar1_first": 0.868, "track": [ { "date": "1962-12-31", "ar1": 0.8683, "var": 1042.018798 }, { "date": "1963-12-31", "ar1": 0.8916, "var": 1025.651127 }, { "date": "1964-12-31", "ar1": 0.8966, "var": 1041.973129 }, { "date": "1965-12-31", "ar1": 0.9006, "var": 1064.693979 }, { "date": "1966-12-31", "ar1": 0.9049, "var": 1081.122368 }, { "date": "1967-12-31", "ar1": 0.9086, "var": 1089.674651 }, { "date": "1968-12-31", "ar1": 0.91, "var": 1090.456446 }, { "date": "1969-12-31", "ar1": 0.9056, "var": 1092.071023 }, { "date": "1970-12-31", "ar1": 0.9069, "var": 1086.033589 }, { "date": "1971-12-31", "ar1": 0.9125, "var": 1081.040725 }, { "date": "1972-12-31", "ar1": 0.9123, "var": 1080.374293 }, { "date": "1973-12-31", "ar1": 0.9115, "var": 1077.589566 }, { "date": "1974-12-31", "ar1": 0.9033, "var": 1081.268677 }, { "date": "1975-12-31", "ar1": 0.9076, "var": 1077.900263 }, { "date": "1976-12-31", "ar1": 0.9121, "var": 1076.105673 }, { "date": "1977-12-31", "ar1": 0.9112, "var": 1075.296843 }, { "date": "1978-12-31", "ar1": 0.9115, "var": 1075.025248 }, { "date": "1979-12-31", "ar1": 0.912, "var": 1079.244247 }, { "date": "1980-12-31", "ar1": 0.915, "var": 1083.159185 }, { "date": "1981-12-31", "ar1": 0.9124, "var": 1081.525007 }, { "date": "1982-12-31", "ar1": 0.924, "var": 1075.102583 }, { "date": "1983-12-31", "ar1": 0.9227, "var": 1085.903819 }, { "date": "1984-12-31", "ar1": 0.9261, "var": 1085.24456 }, { "date": "1985-12-31", "ar1": 0.9247, "var": 1086.122185 }, { "date": "1986-12-31", "ar1": 0.9257, "var": 1088.591261 }, { "date": "1987-12-31", "ar1": 0.9278, "var": 1089.49955 }, { "date": "1988-12-31", "ar1": 0.9242, "var": 1091.775016 }, { "date": "1989-12-31", "ar1": 0.9203, "var": 1081.861236 }, { "date": "1990-12-31", "ar1": 0.9185, "var": 1072.202432 }, { "date": "1991-12-31", "ar1": 0.9164, "var": 1066.132843 }, { "date": "1992-12-31", "ar1": 0.918, "var": 1063.880852 }, { "date": "1993-12-31", "ar1": 0.9184, "var": 1060.346539 }, { "date": "1994-12-31", "ar1": 0.9202, "var": 1061.958714 }, { "date": "1995-12-31", "ar1": 0.9094, "var": 1070.062407 }, { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.9005, "var": 1065.014188 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.8686, "var": 1054.359871 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.8893, "var": 945.189893 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.919, "var": 878.892112 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.8879, "var": 874.17893 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.8891, "var": 805.002291 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.8606, "var": 773.047032 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.8638, "var": 714.693843 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.829, "var": 670.5509 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.8076, "var": 637.489571 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.8276, "var": 614.713025 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.8274, "var": 630.562393 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.8207, "var": 613.298825 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.7956, "var": 605.028295 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.8127, "var": 590.042639 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.801, "var": 605.621637 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.8029, "var": 631.133141 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.8133, "var": 653.10462 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.8057, "var": 653.840776 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.8009, "var": 657.186242 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.7942, "var": 655.468253 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.7777, "var": 665.643006 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.7771, "var": 658.543342 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.7463, "var": 680.177986 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.6277, "var": 942.944209 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.7135, "var": 1141.856614 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.755, "var": 1136.4755 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.754, "var": 1124.035644 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.7436, "var": 1090.766002 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.5363, "var": 1425.333097 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.5843, "var": 2152.319522 } ], "key": "policy_uncertainty", "label": "Wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit", "why": "Politische Unsicherheit \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der Institutionen" }, { "tau_ar1": -0.2, "tau_variance": -0.66, "strength": -0.66, "verdict": "kein Resilienzverlust messbar", "level": "keins", "window_points": 30, "n_points": 60, "ar1_latest": 0.447, "ar1_first": 0.554, "track": [ { "date": "1996-12-31", "ar1": 0.5536, "var": 13.514138 }, { "date": "1997-12-31", "ar1": 0.5414, "var": 13.64237 }, { "date": "1998-12-31", "ar1": 0.5333, "var": 13.215682 }, { "date": "1999-12-31", "ar1": 0.5893, "var": 12.570846 }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "ar1": 0.587, "var": 12.60787 }, { "date": "2001-12-31", "ar1": 0.5805, "var": 12.794332 }, { "date": "2002-12-31", "ar1": 0.5604, "var": 13.302692 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "ar1": 0.5921, "var": 12.309801 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "ar1": 0.6683, "var": 11.990419 }, { "date": "2005-12-31", "ar1": 0.6963, "var": 10.774617 }, { "date": "2006-12-31", "ar1": 0.7188, "var": 10.712633 }, { "date": "2007-12-31", "ar1": 0.7129, "var": 10.809165 }, { "date": "2008-12-31", "ar1": 0.6973, "var": 10.523633 }, { "date": "2009-12-31", "ar1": 0.5762, "var": 13.367939 }, { "date": "2010-12-31", "ar1": 0.6462, "var": 13.933253 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "ar1": 0.6227, "var": 13.845117 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "ar1": 0.579, "var": 11.609056 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "ar1": 0.6405, "var": 9.984002 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "ar1": 0.6272, "var": 9.982087 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "ar1": 0.6131, "var": 9.762743 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "ar1": 0.6243, "var": 9.503875 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "ar1": 0.6328, "var": 9.510626 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "ar1": 0.6082, "var": 9.386044 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "ar1": 0.613, "var": 9.15018 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "ar1": 0.5676, "var": 9.749557 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "ar1": 0.5636, "var": 9.728573 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "ar1": 0.5587, "var": 9.859161 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "ar1": 0.556, "var": 9.874345 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "ar1": 0.5264, "var": 9.492912 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "ar1": 0.497, "var": 8.874532 }, { "date": "2026-12-31", "ar1": 0.4466, "var": 8.342369 } ], "key": "capacity_utilization", "label": "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "why": "Auslastung der Produktionsanlagen \u2014 Zustandsgr\u00f6\u00dfe der Realwirtschaft" } ], "n_signal": 1, "method": "Rollende AR(1)-Autokorrelation und Varianz auf der detrendeten Jahresreihe, Zeittrend per Kendall-Tau. Steigen beide, klingen St\u00f6rungen langsamer ab als fr\u00fcher (Scheffer et al., Nature 2009). Das Verfahren erzeugt in Sozialzeitreihen bekannterma\u00dfen Fehlalarme und sagt weder Zeitpunkt noch Richtung eines \u00dcbergangs voraus." }, "resilience": { "index": 39.3, "index_adjusted": 49.6, "level": "NIEDRIG", "components": [ { "key": "zins", "label": "Zins-Ventil", "value": 72.6, "kind": "ventil", "status": "offen" }, { "key": "fiskal", "label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "value": 0.0, "kind": "ventil", "status": "ersch\u00f6pft" }, { "key": "notenbank", "label": "Notenbankbilanz-Ventil", "value": 49.1, "kind": "ventil", "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt" }, { "key": "globalisierung", "label": "Globalisierungs-Ventil", "value": 14.9, "kind": "ventil", "status": "ersch\u00f6pft" }, { "key": "haushalte", "label": "Privatverschuldungs-Ventil", "value": 68.9, "kind": "ventil", "status": "offen" }, { "key": "demografie", "label": "Arbeitskr\u00e4fte-Ventil", "value": 35.9, "kind": "ventil", "status": "eingeschr\u00e4nkt" }, { "key": "legitimation", "label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "value": 7.0, "kind": "ventil", "status": "ersch\u00f6pft" }, { "key": "oekologie", "label": "\u00d6kologisches Ventil", "value": 22.2, "kind": "ventil", "status": "eng" }, { "key": "csd_rueckstellkraft", "label": "R\u00fcckstellkraft (kritische Verlangsamung)", "value": 83.3, "kind": "csd", "status": "1 von 6 Kernreihen mit Resilienzverlust-Signal" } ], "n_components": 9, "overlap_excluded": [ "fiskal", "legitimation" ], "unmeasured": [ { "label": "Institutionelle Anpassungsf\u00e4higkeit", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Reformf\u00e4higkeit von Verfassungsordnungen l\u00e4sst sich nicht als Zeitreihe messen; V-Dem-Indizes messen Zustand, nicht Anpassungsreserve." }, { "label": "Elitenkoh\u00e4sion", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Genau der Puffer, um den es Turchin geht \u2014 es existiert keine \u00f6ffentliche Langzeitreihe; Polarisierungsma\u00dfe von Abstimmungsdaten decken nur den Kongress ab." }, { "label": "Soziale Koh\u00e4sion und zwischenmenschliches Vertrauen", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Umfragereihen (GSS ab 1972) sind l\u00fcckenhaft und methodisch gebrochen; als Index-Baustein nicht belastbar." }, { "label": "Technologischer Probleml\u00f6sungsvorrat", "evidence_grade": "D", "why_unmeasured": "Ob k\u00fcnftige Technik Druck abbaut (Energie, Material), ist prinzipiell nicht aus historischen Reihen ablesbar." } ], "method": "Ungewichtetes Mittel der Ventil-Restwege (jedes mit offengelegter Formel und Referenzpunkt) plus R\u00fcckstellkraft = Anteil der CSD-Kernreihen ohne Resilienzverlust-Signal, alles auf 0\u2013100 (100 = volle Absorptionsf\u00e4higkeit). Die bereinigte Variante l\u00e4sst Ventile weg, deren Bauplan mit einem Druck-Indikator identisch ist (Doppelz\u00e4hlungs-Audit). Nicht messbare Puffer \u2014 institutionelle Anpassungsf\u00e4higkeit, Elitenkoh\u00e4sion, soziale Koh\u00e4sion \u2014 sind ausgewiesen, aber nicht eingerechnet: Der Index \u00fcbersch\u00e4tzt die Resilienz daher eher, als dass er sie untersch\u00e4tzt." }, "tension": { "central": 68.5, "band": [ 46.9, 69.0 ], "level": "HOCH", "variants": [ { "key": "arithmetisch", "formula": "(P + (100\u2212R)) / 2", "value": 69.0 }, { "key": "geometrisch", "formula": "\u221a(P \u00b7 (100\u2212R))", "value": 68.5 }, { "key": "multiplikativ", "formula": "P \u00b7 (100\u2212R) / 100", "value": 46.9 } ], "central_adjusted": 62.4, "delta_adjustment": -6.1, "druck": 77.2, "resilience": 39.3, "method": "Systemische Spannung verkn\u00fcpft Druck P und Resilienzdefizit (100\u2212R). Welche Verkn\u00fcpfung die richtige ist, ist theoretisch nicht entscheidbar \u2014 deshalb werden drei deklarierte Varianten gerechnet (arithmetisch, geometrisch, multiplikativ) und als Median plus Spannweite berichtet. Ein enges Band hei\u00dft: der Befund h\u00e4ngt nicht an der Formelwahl. Die bereinigte Variante rechnet die Resilienz ohne Ventile, deren Bauplan mit einem Druck-Indikator identisch ist; die Differenz beziffert den maximalen Effekt der Doppelz\u00e4hlung." }, "costress": { "track": [ [ 1961, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1962, 0.0, 15 ], [ 1963, 6.7, 15 ], [ 1964, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1965, 13.3, 15 ], [ 1966, 12.5, 16 ], [ 1967, 0.0, 16 ], [ 1968, 0.0, 17 ], [ 1969, 5.9, 17 ], [ 1970, 23.5, 17 ], [ 1971, 17.6, 17 ], [ 1972, 16.7, 18 ], [ 1973, 27.8, 18 ], [ 1974, 31.6, 19 ], [ 1975, 40.0, 20 ], [ 1976, 25.0, 20 ], [ 1977, 33.3, 21 ], [ 1978, 36.4, 22 ], [ 1979, 43.5, 23 ], [ 1980, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1981, 24.0, 25 ], [ 1982, 30.8, 26 ], [ 1983, 23.1, 26 ], [ 1984, 28.6, 28 ], [ 1985, 35.7, 28 ], [ 1986, 34.5, 29 ], [ 1987, 41.4, 29 ], [ 1988, 27.6, 29 ], [ 1989, 34.5, 29 ], [ 1990, 36.7, 30 ], [ 1991, 32.3, 31 ], [ 1992, 32.3, 31 ], [ 1993, 31.2, 32 ], [ 1994, 28.1, 32 ], [ 1995, 31.2, 32 ], [ 1996, 34.4, 32 ], [ 1997, 25.0, 32 ], [ 1998, 28.1, 32 ], [ 1999, 34.4, 32 ], [ 2000, 28.1, 32 ], [ 2001, 31.2, 32 ], [ 2002, 40.6, 32 ], [ 2003, 40.0, 35 ], [ 2004, 41.7, 36 ], [ 2005, 40.5, 37 ], [ 2006, 39.5, 38 ], [ 2007, 42.1, 38 ], [ 2008, 50.0, 38 ], [ 2009, 50.0, 38 ], [ 2010, 55.3, 38 ], [ 2011, 55.3, 38 ], [ 2012, 44.7, 38 ], [ 2013, 47.4, 38 ], [ 2014, 37.5, 40 ], [ 2015, 27.5, 40 ], [ 2016, 31.7, 41 ], [ 2017, 36.6, 41 ], [ 2018, 34.1, 41 ], [ 2019, 31.7, 41 ], [ 2020, 40.5, 42 ], [ 2021, 46.3, 41 ], [ 2022, 39.0, 41 ], [ 2023, 37.5, 40 ], [ 2024, 30.8, 39 ], [ 2025, 35.1, 37 ], [ 2026, 43.3, 30 ] ], "threshold": 90.0, "min_series": 10, "latest": 43.3, "latest_year": 2026, "latest_n": 30, "base_rate_pct": 13.6, "n_years_geq": 9, "n_years_total": 66, "method": "Anteil der verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen, deren Stress-Track (expandierendes Perzentil der per Transformationsrolle entsch\u00e4rften Jahresreihe, ohne Look-ahead) im jeweiligen Jahr \u2265 90 steht. Jahre mit weniger als 10 verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen werden nicht gewertet. Die Basisrate z\u00e4hlt, in wie viel Prozent aller gewerteten Jahre die Gleichzeitigkeit mindestens so hoch war wie zuletzt \u2014 ohne diese Zahl w\u00e4re der Index ein Zirkelschluss aus vergangener Zeit. Zu beachten: Der Reihenbestand w\u00e4chst \u00fcber die Jahrzehnte (Coverage-Spalte); die Fixed-Panel-Variante rechnet deshalb zus\u00e4tzlich nur mit den langen Reihen.", "fixed_panel": { "track": [ [ 1961, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1962, 0.0, 15 ], [ 1963, 6.7, 15 ], [ 1964, 20.0, 15 ], [ 1965, 13.3, 15 ], [ 1966, 12.5, 16 ], [ 1967, 0.0, 16 ], [ 1968, 0.0, 17 ], [ 1969, 5.9, 17 ], [ 1970, 23.5, 17 ], [ 1971, 17.6, 17 ], [ 1972, 16.7, 18 ], [ 1973, 27.8, 18 ], [ 1974, 31.6, 19 ], [ 1975, 40.0, 20 ], [ 1976, 25.0, 20 ], [ 1977, 33.3, 21 ], [ 1978, 36.4, 22 ], [ 1979, 43.5, 23 ], [ 1980, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1981, 25.0, 24 ], [ 1982, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1983, 25.0, 24 ], [ 1984, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1985, 37.5, 24 ], [ 1986, 37.5, 24 ], [ 1987, 41.7, 24 ], [ 1988, 25.0, 24 ], [ 1989, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1990, 37.5, 24 ], [ 1991, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1992, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1993, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1994, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1995, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1996, 33.3, 24 ], [ 1997, 20.8, 24 ], [ 1998, 29.2, 24 ], [ 1999, 33.3, 24 ], [ 2000, 25.0, 24 ], [ 2001, 29.2, 24 ], [ 2002, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2003, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2004, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2005, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2006, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2007, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2008, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2009, 54.2, 24 ], [ 2010, 50.0, 24 ], [ 2011, 54.2, 24 ], [ 2012, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2013, 50.0, 24 ], [ 2014, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2015, 29.2, 24 ], [ 2016, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2017, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2018, 37.5, 24 ], [ 2019, 29.2, 24 ], [ 2020, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2021, 50.0, 24 ], [ 2022, 45.8, 24 ], [ 2023, 41.7, 24 ], [ 2024, 30.4, 23 ], [ 2025, 38.1, 21 ], [ 2026, 58.8, 17 ] ], "threshold": 90.0, "min_series": 10, "latest": 58.8, "latest_year": 2026, "latest_n": 17, "base_rate_pct": 1.5, "n_years_geq": 1, "n_years_total": 66, "method": "Anteil der verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen, deren Stress-Track (expandierendes Perzentil der per Transformationsrolle entsch\u00e4rften Jahresreihe, ohne Look-ahead) im jeweiligen Jahr \u2265 90 steht. Jahre mit weniger als 10 verf\u00fcgbaren Reihen werden nicht gewertet. Die Basisrate z\u00e4hlt, in wie viel Prozent aller gewerteten Jahre die Gleichzeitigkeit mindestens so hoch war wie zuletzt \u2014 ohne diese Zahl w\u00e4re der Index ein Zirkelschluss aus vergangener Zeit. Zu beachten: Der Reihenbestand w\u00e4chst \u00fcber die Jahrzehnte (Coverage-Spalte); die Fixed-Panel-Variante rechnet deshalb zus\u00e4tzlich nur mit den langen Reihen.", "start_cutoff": 1980, "n_series": 24, "keys": [ "buffett_indicator", "co2", "consumer_sentiment", "current_account", "debt_gdp", "deficit_gdp", "fertilizer", "financial_profit_share", "housing_affordability", "interest_burden", "labor_share", "life_expectancy", "net_investment", "policy_uncertainty", "prod_wage_gap", "profit_rate", "profit_share", "purchasing_power", "real_policy_rate", "real_wage_prod", "renewable_share", "temp_anomaly", "top1_income_share", "total_debt_gdp" ] } }, "coupling": { "redundancy": { "pairs": [ { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "capacity_utilization", "r": -0.084, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "co2", "r": 0.476, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "consumer_sentiment", "r": 0.294, "n_common": 75 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "current_account", "r": -0.273, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "debt_gdp", "r": 0.621, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "deficit_gdp", "r": -0.085, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "dollar_index", "r": 0.689, "n_common": 21 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "dollar_reserve_share", "r": 0.056, "n_common": 27 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "elite_squeeze", "r": -0.246, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "fed_monetization", "r": 0.739, "n_common": 25 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "fertilizer", "r": 0.317, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "financial_profit_share", "r": 0.224, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "food_price", "r": -0.154, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "foreign_holdings", "r": 0.391, "n_common": 56 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "forest_share", "r": -0.176, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "gold_real", "r": 0.325, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "housing_affordability", "r": 0.484, "n_common": 64 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "interest_burden", "r": -0.003, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "inventory_sales", "r": 0.299, "n_common": 35 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "labor_share", "r": 0.133, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "life_expectancy", "r": -0.582, "n_common": 65 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "living_planet", "r": -0.517, "n_common": 51 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "material_footprint", "r": 0.372, "n_common": 23 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "net_investment", "r": -0.179, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "niip_gdp", "r": -0.548, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "overshoot_day", "r": -0.49, "n_common": 55 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "r": 0.376, "n_common": 81 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "prod_wage_gap", "r": -0.058, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "profit_rate", "r": 0.425, "n_common": 79 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "profit_share", "r": 0.252, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "purchasing_power", "r": 0.393, "n_common": 81 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "real_policy_rate", "r": 0.017, "n_common": 73 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "real_wage_prod", "r": 0.293, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "relative_wage", "r": -0.128, "n_common": 48 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "renewable_share", "r": 0.583, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "temp_anomaly", "r": 0.447, "n_common": 80 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "top1_income_share", "r": 0.522, "n_common": 79 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "r": 0.461, "n_common": 81 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "tuition_real", "r": -0.142, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "r": -0.517, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "wealth_top1", "r": 0.403, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "co2", "r": -0.617, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "consumer_sentiment", "r": 0.344, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "current_account", "r": 0.422, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "debt_gdp", "r": -0.553, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "deficit_gdp", "r": 0.627, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "dollar_index", "r": -0.037, "n_common": 21 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "dollar_reserve_share", "r": 0.129, "n_common": 27 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "elite_squeeze", "r": -0.577, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "fed_monetization", "r": 0.175, "n_common": 25 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "fertilizer", "r": -0.62, "n_common": 57 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "financial_profit_share", "r": -0.379, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "food_price", "r": 0.085, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "foreign_holdings", "r": -0.497, "n_common": 56 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "forest_share", "r": 0.623, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "gold_real", "r": -0.504, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "housing_affordability", "r": -0.437, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "interest_burden", "r": 0.182, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "inventory_sales", "r": 0.325, "n_common": 35 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "labor_share", "r": 0.26, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "life_expectancy", "r": 0.165, "n_common": 58 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "living_planet", "r": 0.494, "n_common": 51 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "material_footprint", "r": -0.113, "n_common": 23 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "net_investment", "r": 0.793, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "niip_gdp", "r": 0.499, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "overshoot_day", "r": 0.515, "n_common": 55 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "r": -0.574, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "prod_wage_gap", "r": -0.343, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "profit_rate", "r": -0.353, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "profit_share", "r": -0.42, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "purchasing_power", "r": -0.367, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "real_policy_rate", "r": 0.278, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "real_wage_prod", "r": -0.15, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "relative_wage", "r": -0.704, "n_common": 48 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "renewable_share", "r": -0.539, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "temp_anomaly", "r": -0.578, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "top1_income_share", "r": -0.464, "n_common": 58 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "r": -0.618, "n_common": 60 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "tuition_real", "r": 0.004, "n_common": 50 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "r": -0.191, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "capacity_utilization", "b": "wealth_top1", "r": -0.466, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "consumer_sentiment", "r": -0.318, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "current_account", "r": -0.752, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "debt_gdp", "r": 0.96, "n_common": 61 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "deficit_gdp", "r": -0.553, "n_common": 68 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "dollar_index", "r": 0.912, "n_common": 21 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "dollar_reserve_share", "r": 0.125, "n_common": 27 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "elite_squeeze", "r": 0.444, "n_common": 38 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "fed_monetization", "r": 0.638, "n_common": 25 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "fertilizer", "r": 0.93, "n_common": 63 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "financial_profit_share", "r": 0.599, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "food_price", "r": 0.037, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "foreign_holdings", "r": 0.854, "n_common": 56 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "forest_share", "r": -0.949, "n_common": 36 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "gold_real", "r": 0.699, "n_common": 59 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "housing_affordability", "r": 0.903, "n_common": 64 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "interest_burden", "r": -0.131, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "inventory_sales", "r": -0.336, "n_common": 35 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "labor_share", "r": -0.314, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "life_expectancy", "r": -0.334, "n_common": 65 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "living_planet", "r": -0.963, "n_common": 51 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "material_footprint", "r": 0.879, "n_common": 23 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "net_investment", "r": -0.69, "n_common": 69 }, { "a": "co2", "b": "niip_gdp", "r": -0.962, "n_common": 50 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0.8, "method": "Pearson-Korrelation auf den per Transformationsrolle entsch\u00e4rften Jahresreihen, mindestens 20 gemeinsame Jahre. Paare mit |r| \u2265 0.8 messen mutma\u00dflich denselben Sachverhalt. Die effektive Reihenzahl n_eff = n / (1 + (n\u22121)\u00b7mittlere |r|) sch\u00e4tzt, wie viele UNABH\u00c4NGIGE Messungen der Monitor tats\u00e4chlich hat. 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}, { "druck": "material_footprint", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.843, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "material_footprint", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.621, "n_common": 23 }, { "druck": "net_investment", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.404, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "net_investment", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.144, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "net_investment", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.603, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "net_investment", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.013, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "net_investment", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.478, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "net_investment", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.279, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "net_investment", "resilienz": "zins", "r": 0.482, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.508, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.571, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.805, "n_common": 49 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.868, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.227, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.824, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "zins", "r": 0.638, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.013, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.587, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.964, "n_common": 53 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.811, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.122, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.752, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "zins", "r": 0.744, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "policy_uncertainty", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.306, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "policy_uncertainty", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.176, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "policy_uncertainty", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.553, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "policy_uncertainty", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.622, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "policy_uncertainty", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.528, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "policy_uncertainty", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.517, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "policy_uncertainty", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.217, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.573, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.258, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.545, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.543, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.333, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.483, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "prod_wage_gap", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.15, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.089, "n_common": 78 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.415, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.84, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.785, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.006, "n_common": 74 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.71, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "profit_rate", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.648, "n_common": 72 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.041, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.393, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.767, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.65, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.433, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.677, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "profit_share", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.449, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.063, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.174, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.473, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.171, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.492, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.234, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "purchasing_power", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.734, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.152, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.551, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.454, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.308, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.383, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.384, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "real_policy_rate", "resilienz": "zins", "r": 0.625, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.31, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.724, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.405, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.599, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.026, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.48, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "real_wage_prod", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.651, "n_common": 63 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.482, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.529, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.329, "n_common": 46 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.156, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.449, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.243, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "relative_wage", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.242, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.04, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.302, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.772, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.851, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.266, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.852, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.531, "n_common": 61 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.508, "n_common": 78 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.066, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.872, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.7, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.268, "n_common": 74 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.696, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.348, "n_common": 72 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.292, "n_common": 77 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.293, "n_common": 78 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.938, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.704, "n_common": 20 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.018, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.74, "n_common": 23 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.624, "n_common": 71 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.478, "n_common": 79 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.028, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.913, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.82, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.286, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.881, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.519, "n_common": 73 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.619, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.138, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.201, "n_common": 48 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.683, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 0.517, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.636, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "tuition_real", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.411, "n_common": 50 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": 0.326, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 0.039, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.072, "n_common": 36 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.564, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.29, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.42, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "wealth_ratio_top_bottom", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.138, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.814, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": -0.652, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.821, "n_common": 36 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.853, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": -0.258, "n_common": 38 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.781, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "zins", "r": -0.519, "n_common": 38 } ], "suspects": [ { "druck": "consumer_sentiment", "resilienz": "legitimation", "r": 1.0, "n_common": 75 }, { "druck": "interest_burden", "resilienz": "fiskal", "r": 1.0, "n_common": 80 }, { "druck": "overshoot_day", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.964, "n_common": 53 }, { "druck": "debt_gdp", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.954, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "living_planet", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.947, "n_common": 51 }, { "druck": "top1_income_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.938, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "debt_gdp", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.93, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "co2", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.929, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "material_footprint", "resilienz": "demografie", "r": -0.917, "n_common": 23 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.913, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "fertilizer", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.906, "n_common": 54 }, { "druck": "foreign_holdings", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.902, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "forest_share", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": -0.902, "n_common": 35 }, { "druck": "housing_affordability", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.895, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "total_debt_gdp", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.881, "n_common": 25 }, { "druck": "forest_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.879, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "fertilizer", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.877, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "forest_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": -0.877, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "temp_anomaly", "resilienz": "globalisierung", "r": 0.872, "n_common": 55 }, { "druck": "niip_gdp", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": 0.868, "n_common": 21 }, { "druck": "co2", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.857, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "wealth_top1", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.853, "n_common": 22 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "notenbank", "r": 0.852, "n_common": 24 }, { "druck": "renewable_share", "resilienz": "haushalte", "r": -0.851, "n_common": 21 } ], "flag_at": 0.85, "method": "Pearson-Korrelation zwischen den transformierten Basisreihen des Druck-Sets und den Basisreihen der Resilienz-Komponenten. Paare mit |r| \u2265 0.85 sind Doppelz\u00e4hlungsverdacht: Derselbe Sachverhalt ginge einmal als Druck und einmal als Resilienzverlust in die Systemische Spannung ein. Identische Baupl\u00e4ne werden zus\u00e4tzlich exakt erkannt (Doppelz\u00e4hlungs-Audit)." }, "coupling": { "pairs": [ { "a": "gold_real", "b": "profit_share", "phi": 0.733, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 20, "base_a": 51.1, "base_b": 51.1 }, { "a": "foreign_holdings", "b": "real_wage_prod", "phi": 0.698, "n_common": 42, "n_joint": 1, "base_a": 2.4, "base_b": 4.8 }, { "a": "life_expectancy", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.691, "n_common": 51, "n_joint": 7, "base_a": 15.7, "base_b": 21.6 }, { "a": "net_investment", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "phi": 0.649, "n_common": 66, "n_joint": 29, "base_a": 57.6, "base_b": 48.5 }, { "a": "profit_rate", "b": "real_wage_prod", "phi": 0.617, "n_common": 48, "n_joint": 6, "base_a": 22.9, "base_b": 14.6 }, { "a": "deficit_gdp", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "phi": 0.616, "n_common": 83, "n_joint": 20, "base_a": 27.7, "base_b": 38.6 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.6, "n_common": 43, "n_joint": 11, "base_a": 48.8, "base_b": 25.6 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "net_investment", "phi": 0.582, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 23, "base_a": 51.1, "base_b": 75.6 }, { "a": "fertilizer", "b": "overshoot_day", "phi": 0.562, "n_common": 38, "n_joint": 35, "base_a": 92.1, "base_b": 97.4 }, { "a": "financial_profit_share", "b": "tuition_real", "phi": 0.553, "n_common": 36, "n_joint": 20, "base_a": 75.0, "base_b": 58.3 }, { "a": "labor_share", "b": "prod_wage_gap", "phi": 0.515, "n_common": 66, "n_joint": 25, "base_a": 37.9, "base_b": 69.7 }, { "a": "policy_uncertainty", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "phi": 0.514, "n_common": 67, "n_joint": 32, "base_a": 47.8, "base_b": 77.6 }, { "a": "interest_burden", "b": "profit_rate", "phi": 0.513, "n_common": 65, "n_joint": 16, "base_a": 55.4, "base_b": 24.6 }, { "a": "profit_share", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.5, "n_common": 64, "n_joint": 11, "base_a": 45.3, "base_b": 17.2 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "policy_uncertainty", "phi": 0.495, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 21, "base_a": 51.1, "base_b": 68.9 }, { "a": "gold_real", "b": "life_expectancy", "phi": 0.489, "n_common": 43, "n_joint": 8, "base_a": 48.8, "base_b": 18.6 }, { "a": "prod_wage_gap", "b": "tuition_real", "phi": 0.482, "n_common": 36, "n_joint": 19, "base_a": 72.2, "base_b": 58.3 }, { "a": "buffett_indicator", "b": "top1_income_share", "phi": 0.469, "n_common": 65, "n_joint": 10, "base_a": 40.0, "base_b": 16.9 }, { "a": "consumer_sentiment", "b": "gold_real", "phi": 0.465, "n_common": 45, "n_joint": 12, "base_a": 31.1, "base_b": 51.1 }, { "a": "temp_anomaly", "b": "total_debt_gdp", "phi": 0.457, "n_common": 66, "n_joint": 50, "base_a": 90.9, "base_b": 77.3 } ], "n_pairs_total": 361, "exceed": 75.0, "method": "Phi-Koeffizient der Bin\u00e4rreihen \u201eStress \u2265 75\u201c auf gemeinsamen Jahren (mindestens 25). Misst, ob zwei Dimensionen ZUSAMMEN ausschlagen \u2014 nicht, ob sie korreliert laufen. Deskriptiver Befund; er wird bewusst nicht zur Validierung des Co-Stress-Index herangezogen, denn beide rechnen auf demselben Objekt (Selbstvalidierung). Basisraten je Reihe ausgewiesen: gemeinsame \u00dcberschreitungen sind seltene Ereignisse, kleine Fallzahlen tragen keine Signifikanz." } }, "dynamics": { "pillars": { "turchin": { "n": 15, "n_rising": 8, "n_falling": 2, "n_flat": 5, "mean_persistence": 5.5, "direction": "steigend", "keys_rising": [ "Einkommensanteil des obersten Prozents", "Haushaltssaldo \u00f7 BIP", "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "Relativlohn (Medianlohn \u00f7 BIP pro Kopf)", "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "Verm\u00f6gen oberstes Prozent \u00f7 untere H\u00e4lfte", "Verm\u00f6gensanteil der oberen Mittelschicht (90.\u201399. Perzentil)", "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen" ] }, "akkumulation": { "n": 9, "n_rising": 4, "n_falling": 3, "n_flat": 2, "mean_persistence": 12.2, "direction": "steigend", "keys_rising": [ "Gewinnquote (Gewinne \u00f7 BIP)", "Kapazit\u00e4tsauslastung", "Netto-Investitionsquote", "Produktivit\u00e4ts-Lohn-Schere" ] }, "fiat": { "n": 8, "n_rising": 3, "n_falling": 1, "n_flat": 4, "mean_persistence": 5.6, "direction": "steigend", "keys_rising": [ "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "Leistungsbilanzsaldo \u00f7 BIP", "Realer Goldpreis" ] }, "planetar": { "n": 8, "n_rising": 2, "n_falling": 1, "n_flat": 5, "mean_persistence": 28.2, "direction": "steigend", "keys_rising": [ "Earth Overshoot Day", "Waldfl\u00e4che der Erde" ] } }, "overall": { "n": 40, "n_rising": 17, "n_falling": 7, "n_flat": 16, "mean_persistence": 11.6, "direction": "steigend", "verdict": "Der Stress steigt in 17 von 40 Reihen \u00fcber die letzten zehn Jahre." }, "per_series": { "relative_wage": { "trend_tau": 0.333, "accel": 17.8, "persistence": 0, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 50.0 }, "labor_share": { "trend_tau": 0.511, "accel": 55.0, "persistence": 4, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 95.0 }, "real_wage_prod": { "trend_tau": 0.067, "accel": 7.2, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 28.57 }, "housing_affordability": { "trend_tau": -0.449, "accel": -5.9, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 73.44 }, "life_expectancy": { "trend_tau": -0.111, "accel": -10.7, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 27.69 }, "top1_income_share": { "trend_tau": 0.6, "accel": 7.3, "persistence": 4, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 91.07 }, "wealth_top1": { "trend_tau": 0.119, "accel": -1.6, "persistence": 21, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "trend_tau": 0.956, "accel": 20.6, "persistence": 0, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 34.21 }, "tuition_real": { "trend_tau": -0.644, "accel": -18.1, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 8.0 }, "elite_squeeze": { "trend_tau": 0.867, "accel": 41.6, "persistence": 0, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 68.42 }, "debt_gdp": { "trend_tau": -0.092, "accel": -2.0, "persistence": 25, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "interest_burden": { "trend_tau": 0.556, "accel": 36.9, "persistence": 4, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 77.5 }, "deficit_gdp": { "trend_tau": 0.511, "accel": 10.9, "persistence": 7, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 85.57 }, "policy_uncertainty": { "trend_tau": 0.072, "accel": -1.7, "persistence": 11, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "consumer_sentiment": { "trend_tau": 0.822, "accel": 56.3, "persistence": 6, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 98.67 }, "profit_rate": { "trend_tau": -0.597, "accel": -6.4, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 0.0 }, "profit_share": { "trend_tau": 0.539, "accel": 6.8, "persistence": 23, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 100.0 }, "capacity_utilization": { "trend_tau": 0.378, "accel": 0.5, "persistence": 3, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 85.0 }, "net_investment": { "trend_tau": 0.378, "accel": -0.9, "persistence": 20, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 90.0 }, "inventory_sales": { "trend_tau": -0.2, "accel": -6.1, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 34.29 }, "financial_profit_share": { "trend_tau": -0.378, "accel": -13.4, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 66.25 }, "total_debt_gdp": { "trend_tau": -0.584, "accel": -3.7, "persistence": 45, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 93.83 }, "buffett_indicator": { "trend_tau": 0.067, "accel": -6.8, "persistence": 14, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 92.59 }, "prod_wage_gap": { "trend_tau": 0.556, "accel": 60.4, "persistence": 5, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 92.5 }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "trend_tau": -0.156, "accel": -18.8, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 18.52 }, "foreign_holdings": { "trend_tau": 0.733, "accel": 14.1, "persistence": 0, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 26.79 }, "fed_monetization": { "trend_tau": -0.184, "accel": -2.6, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 60.0 }, "purchasing_power": { "trend_tau": 0.2, "accel": 18.2, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 53.98 }, "gold_real": { "trend_tau": 0.69, "accel": 6.9, "persistence": 20, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 100.0 }, "real_policy_rate": { "trend_tau": -0.333, "accel": -23.3, "persistence": 0, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 60.27 }, "niip_gdp": { "trend_tau": 0.244, "accel": 0.9, "persistence": 18, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 96.0 }, "current_account": { "trend_tau": 0.467, "accel": 13.2, "persistence": 7, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 80.0 }, "co2": { "trend_tau": null, "accel": 0.0, "persistence": 55, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 100.0 }, "temp_anomaly": { "trend_tau": 0.072, "accel": -0.8, "persistence": 49, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 99.32 }, "living_planet": { "trend_tau": 0.156, "accel": 0.8, "persistence": 37, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 96.08 }, "forest_share": { "trend_tau": 1.0, "accel": 0.5, "persistence": 22, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 97.22 }, "fertilizer": { "trend_tau": -0.322, "accel": -4.1, "persistence": 29, "direction": "fallend", "latest": 92.06 }, "renewable_share": { "trend_tau": null, "accel": 0.0, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 0.0 }, "food_price": { "trend_tau": -0.09, "accel": -13.5, "persistence": 0, "direction": "seitw\u00e4rts", "latest": 50.0 }, "overshoot_day": { "trend_tau": 0.467, "accel": 4.8, "persistence": 34, "direction": "steigend", "latest": 98.18 } }, "method": "Auf den Stress-Tracks: Trend = Kendall-Tau der letzten 10 Jahrespunkte (steigend/fallend ab |Tau| \u2265 0.3); Beschleunigung = Mittel der letzten 5 Punkte minus Mittel der 5 davor; Persistenz = Jahre ununterbrochen mit Stress \u2265 75 am aktuellen Rand. Aggregation per Mehrheit der Richtungen, nicht per Mittelwert \u2014 damit die Aussage nachz\u00e4hlbar bleibt." }, "transmission": { "note": "Knoten sind gemessen oder als unbeobachtet ausgewiesen; Kanten sind deklarierte Mechanismen aus der Literatur mit Evidenzgrad, keine aus den Daten gesch\u00e4tzten Wirkungen. Kein Wert dieser Ebene flie\u00dft in Druck, Resilienz oder Spannung ein. R\u00fcckkopplungen (etwa Notverk\u00e4ufe, die Renditen weiter treiben) existieren real, sind hier aber nicht als eigene Kanten gezeichnet \u2014 die Karte zeigt die Erstrichtung.", "contributes_to_headline": false, "grades": { "A": "Mechanisch oder bilanziell zwingend (Bond-Mathematik, Refinanzierung).", "B": "In Krisenepisoden dokumentiert (BIS/IMF/Fed-Analysen zu 2020, 2024).", "C": "Plausibel und literaturgest\u00fctzt, aber episodisch d\u00fcnn belegt.", "D": "Theoretisch begr\u00fcndet, empirisch nicht quantifiziert." }, "monitors": { "oil_brent": { "key": "oil_brent", "label": "\u00d6lpreis Brent", "unit": "USD/Barrel", "decimals": 1, "note": "Preisschub gegen\u00fcber Vorjahr, nicht das nominale Niveau \u2014 dieselbe Logik wie beim Nahrungsmittelpreisindex der S\u00e4ulenrechnung. Der Chokepoint-Kanal (Hormus: rund ein F\u00fcnftel des Welthandels mit \u00d6l und Fl\u00fcssiggas) schl\u00e4gt zuerst hier auf.", "source": "EIA \u00fcber FRED (DCOILBRENTEU), t\u00e4glich ab 1987", "raw": 89.3, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1987-05-01", "mode": "track", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 27.47, "stress": 75.0, "status": "erhoeht", "spark": [ [ "1998-04-01", 14.17 ], [ "1998-06-01", 7.38 ], [ "1998-08-01", 3.23 ], [ "1998-10-01", 3.17 ], [ "1998-12-01", 0.78 ], [ "1999-02-01", 14.62 ], [ "1999-04-01", 72.73 ], [ "1999-06-01", 90.3 ], [ "1999-08-01", 97.79 ], [ "1999-10-01", 97.83 ], [ "1999-12-01", 100.0 ], [ "2000-02-01", 100.0 ], [ "2000-04-01", 89.58 ], [ "2000-06-01", 95.21 ], [ "2000-08-01", 87.84 ], [ "2000-10-01", 84.67 ], [ "2000-12-01", 50.0 ], [ "2001-02-01", 46.75 ], [ "2001-04-01", 64.1 ], [ "2001-06-01", 36.08 ], [ "2001-08-01", 27.5 ], [ "2001-10-01", 7.41 ], [ "2001-12-01", 12.8 ], [ "2002-02-01", 15.66 ], [ "2002-04-01", 52.38 ], [ "2002-06-01", 31.18 ], [ "2002-08-01", 58.14 ], [ "2002-10-01", 84.48 ], [ "2002-12-01", 90.91 ], [ "2003-02-01", 92.13 ], [ "2003-04-01", 42.78 ], [ "2003-06-01", 69.23 ], [ "2003-08-01", 64.13 ], [ "2003-10-01", 61.29 ], [ "2003-12-01", 58.51 ], [ "2004-02-01", 35.79 ], [ "2004-04-01", 83.85 ], [ "2004-06-01", 78.87 ], [ "2004-08-01", 86.73 ], [ "2004-10-01", 93.43 ], [ "2004-12-01", 81.0 ], [ "2005-02-01", 87.13 ], [ "2005-04-01", 90.2 ], [ "2005-06-01", 90.29 ], [ "2005-08-01", 86.54 ], [ "2005-10-01", 68.1 ], [ "2005-12-01", 83.02 ], [ "2006-02-01", 76.17 ], [ "2006-04-01", 80.09 ], [ "2006-06-01", 70.64 ], [ "2006-08-01", 60.91 ], [ "2006-10-01", 39.64 ], [ "2006-12-01", 54.91 ], [ "2007-02-01", 33.63 ], [ "2007-04-01", 34.21 ], [ "2007-06-01", 47.83 ], [ "2007-08-01", 34.91 ], [ "2007-10-01", 82.91 ], [ "2007-12-01", 85.17 ], [ "2008-02-01", 93.7 ], [ "2008-04-01", 92.08 ], [ "2008-06-01", 96.69 ], [ "2008-08-01", 90.16 ], [ "2008-10-01", 22.36 ], [ "2008-12-01", 0.4 ], [ "2009-02-01", 0.8 ], [ "2009-04-01", 1.59 ], [ "2009-06-01", 2.76 ], [ "2009-08-01", 6.64 ], [ "2009-10-01", 45.74 ], [ "2009-12-01", 96.92 ], [ "2010-02-01", 93.51 ], [ "2010-04-01", 92.42 ], [ "2010-06-01", 53.76 ], [ "2010-08-01", 51.12 ], [ "2010-10-01", 58.89 ], [ "2010-12-01", 66.91 ], [ "2011-02-01", 78.1 ], [ "2011-04-01", 81.52 ], [ "2011-06-01", 86.69 ], [ "2011-08-01", 78.93 ], [ "2011-10-01", 72.34 ], [ "2011-12-01", 62.32 ], [ "2012-02-01", 58.04 ], [ "2012-04-01", 32.99 ], [ "2012-06-01", 20.0 ], [ "2012-08-01", 43.49 ], [ "2012-10-01", 42.18 ], [ "2012-12-01", 41.89 ], [ "2013-02-01", 33.22 ], [ "2013-04-01", 21.67 ], [ "2013-06-01", 52.32 ], [ "2013-08-01", 35.2 ], [ "2013-10-01", 34.31 ], [ "2013-12-01", 42.53 ], [ "2014-02-01", 27.74 ], [ "2014-04-01", 50.96 ], [ "2014-06-01", 54.14 ], [ "2014-08-01", 25.63 ], [ "2014-10-01", 15.41 ], [ "2014-12-01", 2.81 ], [ "2015-02-01", 3.11 ], [ "2015-04-01", 3.7 ], [ "2015-06-01", 3.68 ], [ "2015-08-01", 1.52 ], [ "2015-10-01", 5.15 ], [ "2015-12-01", 7.83 ], [ "2016-02-01", 5.09 ], [ "2016-04-01", 13.1 ], [ "2016-06-01", 19.53 ], [ "2016-08-01", 40.88 ], [ "2016-10-01", 49.42 ], [ "2016-12-01", 80.23 ], [ "2017-02-01", 94.8 ], [ "2017-04-01", 71.26 ], [ "2017-06-01", 35.14 ], [ "2017-08-01", 61.36 ], [ "2017-10-01", 65.82 ], [ "2017-12-01", 69.1 ], [ "2018-02-01", 68.16 ], [ "2018-04-01", 80.0 ], [ "2018-06-01", 91.44 ], [ "2018-08-01", 79.95 ], [ "2018-10-01", 80.6 ], [ "2018-12-01", 26.36 ], [ "2019-02-01", 37.03 ], [ "2019-04-01", 40.05 ], [ "2019-06-01", 24.06 ], [ "2019-08-01", 18.88 ], [ "2019-10-01", 14.55 ], [ "2019-12-01", 65.79 ], [ "2020-02-01", 25.92 ], [ "2020-04-01", 0.26 ], [ "2020-06-01", 8.29 ], [ "2020-08-01", 17.27 ], [ "2020-10-01", 11.28 ], [ "2020-12-01", 16.84 ], [ "2021-02-01", 60.15 ], [ "2021-04-01", 100.0 ], [ "2021-06-01", 96.23 ], [ "2021-08-01", 90.25 ], [ "2021-10-01", 98.26 ], [ "2021-12-01", 84.65 ], [ "2022-02-01", 88.42 ], [ "2022-04-01", 90.44 ], [ "2022-06-01", 91.71 ], [ "2022-08-01", 78.88 ], [ "2022-10-01", 57.25 ], [ "2022-12-01", 55.29 ], [ "2023-02-01", 23.21 ], [ "2023-04-01", 20.0 ], [ "2023-06-01", 7.35 ], [ "2023-08-01", 25.24 ], [ "2023-10-01", 36.85 ], [ "2023-12-01", 35.05 ], [ "2024-02-01", 46.28 ], [ "2024-04-01", 53.47 ], [ "2024-06-01", 57.83 ], [ "2024-08-01", 31.42 ], [ "2024-10-01", 22.6 ], [ "2024-12-01", 33.18 ], [ "2025-02-01", 29.41 ], [ "2025-04-01", 16.89 ], [ "2025-06-01", 26.91 ], [ "2025-08-01", 23.66 ], [ "2025-10-01", 24.89 ], [ "2025-12-01", 23.89 ], [ "2026-02-01", 34.14 ], [ "2026-04-01", 94.3 ], [ "2026-06-01", 68.56 ], [ "2026-08-01", 75.0 ] ] }, "cpi_energy": { "key": "cpi_energy", "label": "US-Energie-Verbraucherpreise", "unit": "Index 1982\u201384=100", "decimals": 1, "note": "\u00dcbersetzung des Rohstoffschocks in die Inflation, die Notenbanken bindet: Energie-Teuerung engt den Spielraum f\u00fcr Zinssenkungen ein und erh\u00f6ht den Straffungsdruck auf Importeure wie Japan.", "source": "BLS \u00fcber FRED (CPIENGSL), monatlich ab 1957", "raw": 314.6, "as_of": "2026-07-01", "start": "1957-01-01", "mode": "track", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 12.87, "stress": 84.06, "status": "erhoeht", "spark": [ [ "1967-12-01", 60.0 ], [ "1968-05-01", 38.4 ], [ "1968-10-01", 58.46 ], [ "1969-03-01", 88.15 ], [ "1969-08-01", 85.0 ], [ "1970-01-01", 90.34 ], [ "1970-06-01", 38.0 ], [ "1970-11-01", 98.71 ], [ "1971-04-01", 76.25 ], [ "1971-09-01", 99.39 ], [ "1972-02-01", 70.59 ], [ "1972-07-01", 86.29 ], [ "1972-12-01", 84.44 ], [ "1973-05-01", 100.0 ], [ "1973-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "1974-03-01", 100.0 ], [ "1974-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1975-01-01", 94.15 ], [ "1975-06-01", 90.48 ], [ "1975-11-01", 92.56 ], [ "1976-04-01", 85.0 ], [ "1976-09-01", 82.67 ], [ "1977-02-01", 87.83 ], [ "1977-07-01", 88.51 ], [ "1977-12-01", 85.0 ], [ "1978-05-01", 76.73 ], [ "1978-10-01", 81.6 ], [ "1979-03-01", 93.73 ], [ "1979-08-01", 98.46 ], [ "1980-01-01", 100.0 ], [ "1980-06-01", 96.67 ], [ "1980-11-01", 89.09 ], [ "1981-04-01", 86.43 ], [ "1981-09-01", 85.26 ], [ "1982-02-01", 52.41 ], [ "1982-07-01", 36.95 ], [ "1982-12-01", 21.67 ], [ "1983-05-01", 63.61 ], [ "1983-10-01", 4.19 ], [ "1984-03-01", 63.81 ], [ "1984-08-01", 2.5 ], [ "1985-01-01", 16.31 ], [ "1985-06-01", 29.39 ], [ "1985-11-01", 24.48 ], [ "1986-04-01", 0.29 ], [ "1986-09-01", 0.58 ], [ "1987-02-01", 3.14 ], [ "1987-07-01", 66.76 ], [ "1987-12-01", 78.89 ], [ "1988-05-01", 35.62 ], [ "1988-10-01", 21.08 ], [ "1989-03-01", 65.6 ], [ "1989-08-01", 69.74 ], [ "1990-01-01", 82.6 ], [ "1990-06-01", 21.79 ], [ "1990-11-01", 92.15 ], [ "1991-04-01", 62.5 ], [ "1991-09-01", 3.46 ], [ "1992-02-01", 4.88 ], [ "1992-07-01", 58.31 ], [ "1992-12-01", 45.0 ], [ "1993-05-01", 48.24 ], [ "1993-10-01", 29.07 ], [ "1994-03-01", 11.26 ], [ "1994-08-01", 61.82 ], [ "1995-01-01", 57.53 ], [ "1995-06-01", 64.44 ], [ "1995-11-01", 4.84 ], [ "1996-04-01", 72.39 ], [ "1996-09-01", 73.12 ], [ "1997-02-01", 78.3 ], [ "1997-07-01", 8.84 ], [ "1997-12-01", 3.96 ], [ "1998-05-01", 4.54 ], [ "1998-10-01", 2.65 ], [ "1999-03-01", 7.47 ], [ "1999-08-01", 79.4 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"2016-09-01", 13.76 ], [ "2017-02-01", 88.17 ], [ "2017-07-01", 59.72 ], [ "2017-12-01", 71.11 ], [ "2018-05-01", 82.21 ], [ "2018-10-01", 75.48 ], [ "2019-03-01", 22.31 ], [ "2019-08-01", 11.49 ], [ "2020-01-01", 72.48 ], [ "2020-06-01", 5.47 ], [ "2020-11-01", 7.42 ], [ "2021-04-01", 95.92 ], [ "2021-09-01", 95.95 ], [ "2022-02-01", 96.1 ], [ "2022-07-01", 97.68 ], [ "2022-12-01", 69.1 ], [ "2023-05-01", 5.86 ], [ "2023-10-01", 12.78 ], [ "2024-03-01", 44.53 ], [ "2024-08-01", 13.12 ], [ "2025-01-01", 32.67 ], [ "2025-06-01", 21.48 ], [ "2025-12-01", 63.31 ], [ "2026-05-01", 93.41 ], [ "2026-07-01", 84.06 ] ] }, "jgb10y": { "key": "jgb10y", "label": "JGB-Rendite 10 Jahre", "unit": "%", "decimals": 2, "note": "Anstiegstempo, nicht Niveau: F\u00fcr Institute auf Bergen niedrig verzinster Best\u00e4nde ist die Geschwindigkeit der Zinswende der Stress \u2014 Kursverluste entstehen aus der \u00c4nderung.", "source": "OECD \u00fcber FRED (IRLTLT01JPM156N), monatlich ab 1989", "raw": 2.67, 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"2005-04-01", 54.89 ], [ "2005-06-01", 34.41 ], [ "2005-08-01", 56.38 ], [ "2005-10-01", 68.95 ], [ "2005-12-01", 72.4 ], [ "2006-02-01", 77.84 ], [ "2006-04-01", 88.78 ], [ "2006-06-01", 89.39 ], [ "2006-08-01", 79.5 ], [ "2006-10-01", 76.24 ], [ "2006-12-01", 73.04 ], [ "2007-02-01", 65.05 ], [ "2007-04-01", 47.6 ], [ "2007-06-01", 62.86 ], [ "2007-08-01", 56.6 ], [ "2007-10-01", 55.61 ], [ "2007-12-01", 53.7 ], [ "2008-02-01", 50.92 ], [ "2008-04-01", 59.09 ], [ "2008-06-01", 45.5 ], [ "2008-08-01", 52.23 ], [ "2008-10-01", 53.1 ], [ "2008-12-01", 42.98 ], [ "2009-02-01", 52.17 ], [ "2009-04-01", 50.43 ], [ "2009-06-01", 48.29 ], [ "2009-08-01", 56.78 ], [ "2009-10-01", 60.5 ], [ "2009-12-01", 70.0 ], [ "2010-02-01", 66.53 ], [ "2010-04-01", 56.56 ], [ "2010-06-01", 43.09 ], [ "2010-08-01", 42.34 ], [ "2010-10-01", 31.2 ], [ "2010-12-01", 53.17 ], [ "2011-02-01", 61.42 ], [ "2011-04-01", 61.33 ], [ "2011-06-01", 67.44 ], [ "2011-08-01", 65.77 ], [ "2011-10-01", 77.48 ], [ "2011-12-01", 48.86 ], [ "2012-02-01", 41.73 ], [ "2012-04-01", 39.55 ], [ "2012-06-01", 40.0 ], [ "2012-08-01", 47.43 ], [ "2012-10-01", 41.97 ], [ "2012-12-01", 50.36 ], [ "2013-02-01", 39.93 ], [ "2013-04-01", 35.71 ], [ "2013-06-01", 70.92 ], [ "2013-08-01", 60.21 ], [ "2013-10-01", 50.7 ], [ "2013-12-01", 59.72 ], [ "2014-02-01", 62.41 ], [ "2014-04-01", 70.55 ], [ "2014-06-01", 40.14 ], [ "2014-08-01", 46.62 ], [ "2014-10-01", 55.37 ], [ "2014-12-01", 32.0 ], [ "2015-02-01", 43.71 ], [ "2015-04-01", 41.78 ], [ "2015-06-01", 64.05 ], [ "2015-08-01", 59.09 ], [ "2015-10-01", 50.97 ], [ "2015-12-01", 65.06 ], [ "2016-02-01", 28.34 ], [ "2016-04-01", 28.16 ], [ "2016-06-01", 19.18 ], [ "2016-08-01", 28.12 ], [ "2016-10-01", 32.61 ], [ "2016-12-01", 45.68 ], [ "2017-02-01", 80.06 ], [ "2017-04-01", 78.96 ], [ "2017-06-01", 87.58 ], [ "2017-08-01", 77.11 ], [ "2017-10-01", 79.34 ], [ "2017-12-01", 69.94 ], [ "2018-02-01", 67.75 ], [ "2018-04-01", 73.24 ], [ "2018-06-01", 64.04 ], [ 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"2025-04-01", 90.33 ], [ "2025-06-01", 87.56 ], [ "2025-08-01", 94.39 ], [ "2025-10-01", 94.19 ], [ "2025-12-01", 96.76 ], [ "2026-02-01", 93.55 ], [ "2026-04-01", 97.48 ], [ "2026-06-01", 97.49 ] ] }, "usdjpy": { "key": "usdjpy", "label": "USD/JPY-Bewegungstempo", "unit": "Yen je USD", "decimals": 1, "note": "Betrag der Jahresver\u00e4nderung, bewusst richtungslos: Abwertung (Importinflation, Interventionsdruck) und abrupte Aufwertung (Carry-Unwind wie im August 2024) sind BEIDE der Stressfall. Monatsmittel \u2014 sehr kurze Episoden erscheinen abgeschw\u00e4cht; das schnelle Instrument bleibt der zyklische Crash Radar.", "source": "Fed H.10 \u00fcber FRED (DEXJPUS), t\u00e4glich ab 1971", "raw": 159.0, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1971-01-01", "mode": "track", "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "tcode_label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 7.49, "stress": 46.04, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "1981-12-01", 30.0 ], [ "1982-04-01", 60.48 ], [ "1982-08-01", 53.91 ], [ "1982-12-01", 51.52 ], [ "1983-04-01", 17.65 ], [ "1983-08-01", 37.14 ], [ "1983-12-01", 19.44 ], [ "1984-04-01", 36.49 ], [ "1984-08-01", 5.92 ], [ "1984-12-01", 39.1 ], [ "1985-04-01", 60.62 ], [ "1985-08-01", 14.63 ], [ "1985-12-01", 92.86 ], [ "1986-04-01", 99.42 ], [ "1986-08-01", 100.0 ], [ "1986-12-01", 89.44 ], [ "1987-04-01", 86.41 ], [ "1987-08-01", 29.79 ], [ "1987-12-01", 90.62 ], [ "1988-04-01", 62.76 ], [ "1988-08-01", 50.0 ], [ "1988-12-01", 23.04 ], [ "1989-04-01", 33.65 ], [ "1989-08-01", 34.91 ], [ "1989-12-01", 71.3 ], [ "1990-04-01", 82.27 ], [ "1990-08-01", 24.11 ], [ "1990-12-01", 39.47 ], [ "1991-04-01", 71.12 ], [ "1991-08-01", 40.68 ], [ "1991-12-01", 26.25 ], [ "1992-04-01", 15.98 ], [ "1992-08-01", 44.76 ], [ "1992-12-01", 18.25 ], [ "1993-04-01", 82.42 ], [ "1993-08-01", 88.08 ], [ "1993-12-01", 60.98 ], [ "1994-04-01", 44.4 ], [ "1994-08-01", 22.06 ], [ "1994-12-01", 49.64 ], [ "1995-04-01", 91.79 ], [ "1995-08-01", 28.87 ], [ "1995-12-01", 8.68 ], [ "1996-04-01", 95.21 ], [ "1996-08-01", 65.88 ], [ "1996-12-01", 58.67 ], [ "1997-04-01", 76.97 ], [ "1997-08-01", 46.1 ], [ "1997-12-01", 66.03 ], [ "1998-04-01", 26.58 ], [ "1998-08-01", 90.62 ], [ "1998-12-01", 53.4 ], [ "1999-04-01", 50.61 ], [ "1999-08-01", 95.18 ], [ "1999-12-01", 66.67 ], [ "2000-04-01", 63.24 ], [ "2000-08-01", 24.42 ], [ "2000-12-01", 45.4 ], [ "2001-04-01", 78.12 ], [ "2001-08-01", 58.99 ], [ "2001-12-01", 65.56 ], [ "2002-04-01", 27.47 ], [ "2002-08-01", 9.24 ], [ "2002-12-01", 24.73 ], [ "2003-04-01", 43.62 ], [ "2003-08-01", 1.58 ], [ "2003-12-01", 64.32 ], [ "2004-04-01", 54.9 ], [ "2004-08-01", 36.73 ], [ "2004-12-01", 18.94 ], [ "2005-04-01", 2.75 ], [ "2005-08-01", 2.23 ], [ "2005-12-01", 71.08 ], [ "2006-04-01", 45.87 ], [ "2006-08-01", 27.4 ], [ "2006-12-01", 6.43 ], [ "2007-04-01", 8.96 ], [ "2007-08-01", 4.91 ], [ "2007-12-01", 24.54 ], [ "2008-04-01", 78.67 ], [ "2008-08-01", 37.73 ], [ "2008-12-01", 93.24 ], [ "2009-04-01", 21.43 ], [ "2009-08-01", 76.99 ], [ "2009-12-01", 8.55 ], [ "2010-04-01", 34.57 ], [ "2010-08-01", 57.11 ], [ "2010-12-01", 42.74 ], [ "2011-04-01", 64.62 ], [ "2011-08-01", 56.3 ], [ "2011-12-01", 37.92 ], [ "2012-04-01", 13.64 ], [ "2012-08-01", 12.91 ], [ "2012-12-01", 41.46 ], [ "2013-04-01", 89.72 ], [ "2013-08-01", 94.0 ], [ "2013-12-01", 92.86 ], [ "2014-04-01", 27.36 ], [ "2014-08-01", 29.88 ], [ "2014-12-01", 77.33 ], [ "2015-04-01", 81.54 ], [ "2015-08-01", 87.21 ], [ "2015-12-01", 10.61 ], [ "2016-04-01", 47.37 ], [ "2016-08-01", 90.3 ], [ "2016-12-01", 27.22 ], [ "2017-04-01", 3.31 ], [ "2017-08-01", 45.99 ], [ "2017-12-01", 15.76 ], [ "2018-04-01", 13.31 ], [ "2018-08-01", 7.32 ], [ "2018-12-01", 4.61 ], [ "2019-04-01", 21.65 ], [ "2019-08-01", 26.75 ], [ "2019-12-01", 18.06 ], [ "2020-04-01", 22.07 ], [ "2020-08-01", 1.03 ], [ "2020-12-01", 33.16 ], [ "2021-04-01", 9.29 ], [ "2021-08-01", 23.15 ], [ "2021-12-01", 54.5 ], [ "2022-04-01", 80.3 ], [ "2022-08-01", 93.59 ], [ "2022-12-01", 86.11 ], [ "2023-04-01", 36.04 ], [ "2023-08-01", 41.61 ], [ "2023-12-01", 41.19 ], [ "2024-04-01", 77.71 ], [ "2024-08-01", 7.59 ], [ "2024-12-01", 41.51 ], [ "2025-04-01", 41.56 ], [ "2025-08-01", 6.37 ], [ "2025-12-01", 10.19 ], [ "2026-04-01", 57.98 ], [ "2026-08-01", 46.04 ] ] }, "ust10y": { "key": "ust10y", "label": "US-Treasury-Rendite 10 Jahre", "unit": "%", "decimals": 2, "note": "Anstiegstempo als Sicherheiten- und Refinanzierungsstress: Renditen rauf hei\u00dft Kurse runter \u2014 auf dem wichtigsten Sicherheitenbestand des Weltfinanzsystems.", "source": "Fed H.15 \u00fcber FRED (DGS10), t\u00e4glich ab 1962", "raw": 4.67, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1962-01-01", "mode": "track", "tcode": "CHANGE", "tcode_label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "transformed": 0.41, "stress": 63.48, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "1972-12-01", 65.0 ], [ "1973-05-01", 80.8 ], [ "1973-10-01", 54.62 ], [ "1974-03-01", 65.19 ], [ "1974-08-01", 74.29 ], [ "1975-01-01", 61.38 ], [ "1975-06-01", 48.67 ], [ "1975-11-01", 52.9 ], [ "1976-04-01", 8.12 ], [ "1976-09-01", 7.27 ], [ "1977-02-01", 13.53 ], [ "1977-07-01", 12.57 ], [ "1977-12-01", 85.0 ], [ "1978-05-01", 87.57 ], [ "1978-10-01", 92.63 ], [ "1979-03-01", 90.26 ], [ "1979-08-01", 69.0 ], [ "1980-01-01", 99.02 ], [ "1980-06-01", 78.57 ], [ "1980-11-01", 97.67 ], [ "1981-04-01", 98.18 ], [ "1981-09-01", 98.67 ], [ "1982-02-01", 86.09 ], [ "1982-07-01", 12.77 ], [ "1982-12-01", 0.83 ], [ "1983-05-01", 2.45 ], [ "1983-10-01", 63.6 ], [ "1984-03-01", 93.73 ], [ "1984-08-01", 72.69 ], [ "1985-01-01", 18.49 ], [ "1985-06-01", 2.22 ], [ "1985-11-01", 6.91 ], [ "1986-04-01", 1.07 ], [ "1986-09-01", 5.96 ], [ "1987-02-01", 12.76 ], [ "1987-07-01", 84.41 ], [ "1987-12-01", 93.0 ], [ "1988-05-01", 54.75 ], [ "1988-10-01", 17.1 ], [ "1989-03-01", 78.41 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"2006-04-01", 73.08 ], [ "2006-09-01", 66.67 ], [ "2007-02-01", 50.19 ], [ "2007-07-01", 41.12 ], [ "2007-12-01", 30.0 ], [ "2008-05-01", 20.73 ], [ "2008-10-01", 25.45 ], [ "2009-03-01", 26.13 ], [ "2009-08-01", 37.32 ], [ "2010-01-01", 89.03 ], [ "2010-06-01", 30.35 ], [ "2010-11-01", 27.3 ], [ "2011-04-01", 34.31 ], [ "2011-09-01", 26.32 ], [ "2012-02-01", 6.78 ], [ "2012-07-01", 8.57 ], [ "2012-12-01", 40.5 ], [ "2013-05-01", 54.38 ], [ "2013-10-01", 80.98 ], [ "2014-03-01", 78.05 ], [ "2014-08-01", 37.26 ], [ "2015-01-01", 18.72 ], [ "2015-06-01", 41.11 ], [ "2015-11-01", 46.61 ], [ "2016-04-01", 44.69 ], [ "2016-09-01", 30.23 ], [ "2017-02-01", 74.92 ], [ "2017-07-01", 80.15 ], [ "2017-12-01", 46.21 ], [ "2018-05-01", 76.54 ], [ "2018-10-01", 79.85 ], [ "2019-03-01", 38.52 ], [ "2019-08-01", 10.15 ], [ "2020-01-01", 18.25 ], [ "2020-06-01", 9.86 ], [ "2020-11-01", 19.42 ], [ "2021-04-01", 86.14 ], [ "2021-09-01", 77.02 ], [ "2022-02-01", 76.06 ], [ "2022-07-01", 93.99 ], [ "2022-12-01", 97.36 ], [ "2023-05-01", 74.62 ], [ "2023-10-01", 79.86 ], [ "2024-03-01", 68.3 ], [ "2024-08-01", 37.03 ], [ "2025-01-01", 69.26 ], [ "2025-06-01", 50.13 ], [ "2025-11-01", 38.01 ], [ "2026-04-01", 48.68 ], [ "2026-08-01", 63.48 ] ] }, "sofr_iorb": { "key": "sofr_iorb", "label": "Repo-Aufschlag (SOFR \u2212 IORB)", "unit": "%-Punkte", "decimals": 2, "note": "Momentanzeige mit deklarierter Schwelle statt Stress-Track: Die Reihe existiert erst seit 2021 \u2014 zu kurz f\u00fcr ein expandierendes Perzentil. Notiert die besicherte \u00dcbernachtfinanzierung sp\u00fcrbar \u00fcber dem Einlagenzins der Fed (\u2265 0,10 %-Punkte), konkurrieren H\u00e4ndler um knappe Bilanz \u2014 das Muster von September 2019.", "source": "NY Fed / Fed \u00fcber FRED (SOFR, IORB), t\u00e4glich ab 2021", "raw": -0.01, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "2021-07-01", "mode": "spot", "threshold": 0.1, "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "2021-09-01", -0.1 ], [ "2021-10-01", -0.1035 ], [ "2021-11-01", -0.1 ], [ "2021-12-01", -0.1005 ], [ "2022-01-01", -0.102 ], [ "2022-02-01", -0.1005 ], [ "2022-03-01", -0.1083 ], [ "2022-04-01", -0.114 ], [ "2022-05-01", -0.1124 ], [ "2022-06-01", -0.1605 ], [ "2022-07-01", -0.118 ], [ "2022-08-01", -0.1165 ], [ "2022-09-01", -0.1386 ], [ "2022-10-01", -0.1135 ], [ "2022-11-01", -0.103 ], [ "2022-12-01", -0.0962 ], [ "2023-01-01", -0.0955 ], [ "2023-02-01", -0.0989 ], [ "2023-03-01", -0.0904 ], [ "2023-04-01", -0.0937 ], [ "2023-05-01", -0.0932 ], [ "2023-06-01", -0.0938 ], [ "2023-07-01", -0.093 ], [ "2023-08-01", -0.0991 ], [ "2023-09-01", -0.094 ], [ "2023-10-01", -0.0886 ], [ "2023-11-01", -0.081 ], [ "2023-12-01", -0.0645 ], [ "2024-01-01", -0.079 ], [ "2024-02-01", -0.091 ], [ "2024-03-01", -0.087 ], [ "2024-04-01", -0.0832 ], [ "2024-05-01", -0.0855 ], [ "2024-06-01", -0.0747 ], [ "2024-07-01", -0.0568 ], [ "2024-08-01", -0.0673 ], [ "2024-09-01", -0.0545 ], [ "2024-10-01", -0.0509 ], [ "2024-11-01", -0.0721 ], [ "2024-12-01", -0.0229 ], [ "2025-01-01", -0.0843 ], [ "2025-02-01", -0.0563 ], [ "2025-03-01", -0.0733 ], [ "2025-04-01", -0.0514 ], [ "2025-05-01", -0.0948 ], [ "2025-06-01", -0.0835 ], [ "2025-07-01", -0.0632 ], [ "2025-08-01", -0.0557 ], [ "2025-09-01", 0.0067 ], [ "2025-10-01", 0.0736 ], [ "2025-11-01", 0.0778 ], [ "2025-12-01", 0.0591 ], [ "2026-01-01", 0.0065 ], [ "2026-02-01", 0.0174 ], [ "2026-03-01", 0.0005 ], [ "2026-04-01", -0.0081 ], [ "2026-05-01", -0.0645 ], [ "2026-06-01", -0.0219 ], [ "2026-07-01", -0.0309 ], [ "2026-08-01", -0.0086 ] ] }, "vix": { "key": "vix", "label": "Aktienvolatilit\u00e4t VIX", "unit": "Punkte", "decimals": 1, "note": "Monatsmittel der impliziten Volatilit\u00e4t \u2014 der sichtbarste Ausdruck eines globalen Risikoabbaus, wenn gehebelte Positionen aufgel\u00f6st werden.", "source": "Cboe \u00fcber FRED (VIXCLS), t\u00e4glich ab 1990", "raw": 15.6, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1990-01-01", "mode": "track", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 34.77, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "1999-12-01", 76.67 ], [ "2000-02-01", 81.15 ], [ "2000-04-01", 91.94 ], [ "2000-06-01", 69.84 ], [ "2000-08-01", 54.69 ], [ "2000-10-01", 86.92 ], [ "2000-12-01", 91.67 ], [ "2001-02-01", 76.87 ], [ "2001-04-01", 93.38 ], [ "2001-06-01", 64.49 ], [ "2001-08-01", 68.57 ], [ "2001-10-01", 97.89 ], [ "2001-12-01", 77.08 ], [ "2002-02-01", 69.86 ], [ "2002-04-01", 54.05 ], [ "2002-06-01", 84.0 ], [ "2002-08-01", 97.37 ], [ "2002-10-01", 98.05 ], [ "2002-12-01", 91.03 ], [ "2003-02-01", 94.94 ], [ "2003-04-01", 75.0 ], [ "2003-06-01", 56.17 ], [ "2003-08-01", 46.95 ], [ "2003-10-01", 42.17 ], [ "2003-12-01", 33.93 ], [ "2004-02-01", 27.65 ], [ "2004-04-01", 26.16 ], [ "2004-06-01", 25.29 ], [ "2004-08-01", 34.66 ], [ "2004-10-01", 22.47 ], [ "2004-12-01", 9.44 ], [ "2005-02-01", 2.75 ], [ "2005-04-01", 24.46 ], [ "2005-06-01", 3.76 ], [ "2005-08-01", 14.89 ], [ "2005-10-01", 26.84 ], [ "2005-12-01", 1.04 ], [ "2006-02-01", 12.89 ], [ "2006-04-01", 5.1 ], [ "2006-06-01", 42.93 ], [ "2006-08-01", 19.0 ], [ "2006-10-01", 1.98 ], [ "2006-12-01", 0.98 ], [ "2007-02-01", 2.43 ], [ "2007-04-01", 19.71 ], [ "2007-06-01", 32.38 ], [ "2007-08-01", 83.49 ], [ "2007-10-01", 56.54 ], [ "2007-12-01", 68.98 ], [ "2008-02-01", 84.4 ], [ "2008-04-01", 67.27 ], [ "2008-06-01", 70.27 ], [ "2008-08-01", 64.29 ], [ "2008-10-01", 100.0 ], [ "2008-12-01", 99.12 ], [ "2009-02-01", 98.7 ], [ "2009-04-01", 96.98 ], [ "2009-06-01", 90.6 ], [ "2009-08-01", 80.08 ], [ "2009-10-01", 75.63 ], [ "2009-12-01", 61.67 ], [ "2010-02-01", 67.77 ], [ "2010-04-01", 43.03 ], [ "2010-06-01", 91.06 ], [ "2010-08-01", 76.61 ], [ "2010-10-01", 58.0 ], [ "2010-12-01", 42.86 ], [ "2011-02-01", 42.13 ], [ "2011-04-01", 33.59 ], [ "2011-06-01", 50.39 ], [ "2011-08-01", 95.38 ], [ "2011-10-01", 93.89 ], [ "2011-12-01", 78.03 ], [ "2012-02-01", 48.12 ], [ "2012-04-01", 45.52 ], [ "2012-06-01", 61.48 ], [ "2012-08-01", 29.41 ], [ "2012-10-01", 32.85 ], [ "2012-12-01", 39.86 ], [ "2013-02-01", 21.58 ], [ "2013-04-01", 21.43 ], [ "2013-06-01", 40.07 ], [ "2013-08-01", 23.94 ], [ "2013-10-01", 30.42 ], [ "2013-12-01", 23.96 ], [ "2014-02-01", 31.38 ], [ "2014-04-01", 23.97 ], [ "2014-06-01", 4.08 ], [ "2014-08-01", 18.58 ], [ "2014-10-01", 51.01 ], [ "2014-12-01", 37.33 ], [ "2015-02-01", 34.77 ], [ "2015-04-01", 19.41 ], [ "2015-06-01", 26.47 ], [ "2015-08-01", 56.82 ], [ "2015-10-01", 41.61 ], [ "2015-12-01", 51.92 ], [ "2016-02-01", 71.02 ], [ "2016-04-01", 25.63 ], [ "2016-06-01", 50.94 ], [ "2016-08-01", 9.69 ], [ "2016-10-01", 28.57 ], [ "2016-12-01", 11.42 ], [ "2017-02-01", 3.68 ], [ "2017-04-01", 16.46 ], [ "2017-06-01", 0.3 ], [ "2017-08-01", 8.43 ], [ "2017-10-01", 0.3 ], [ "2017-12-01", 0.89 ], [ "2018-02-01", 72.78 ], [ "2018-04-01", 55.59 ], [ "2018-06-01", 24.27 ], [ "2018-08-01", 15.7 ], [ "2018-10-01", 60.12 ], [ "2018-12-01", 82.76 ], [ "2019-02-01", 35.43 ], [ "2019-04-01", 17.61 ], [ "2019-06-01", 39.27 ], [ "2019-08-01", 57.58 ], [ "2019-10-01", 37.43 ], [ "2019-12-01", 25.56 ], [ "2020-02-01", 62.43 ], [ "2020-04-01", 98.08 ], [ "2020-06-01", 92.9 ], [ "2020-08-01", 74.73 ], [ "2020-10-01", 91.35 ], [ "2020-12-01", 72.31 ], [ "2021-02-01", 74.6 ], [ "2021-04-01", 48.67 ], [ "2021-06-01", 46.3 ], [ "2021-08-01", 49.21 ], [ "2021-10-01", 53.14 ], [ "2021-12-01", 68.49 ], [ "2022-02-01", 85.23 ], [ "2022-04-01", 79.9 ], [ "2022-06-01", 90.26 ], [ "2022-08-01", 70.41 ], [ "2022-10-01", 92.39 ], [ "2022-12-01", 68.18 ], [ "2023-02-01", 61.56 ], [ "2023-04-01", 50.5 ], [ "2023-06-01", 24.38 ], [ "2023-08-01", 36.88 ], [ "2023-10-01", 54.68 ], [ "2023-12-01", 13.97 ], [ "2024-02-01", 24.63 ], [ "2024-04-01", 38.83 ], [ "2024-06-01", 13.77 ], [ "2024-08-01", 58.17 ], [ "2024-10-01", 61.96 ], [ "2024-12-01", 37.86 ], [ "2025-02-01", 45.5 ], [ "2025-04-01", 94.58 ], [ "2025-06-01", 54.93 ], [ "2025-08-01", 36.21 ], [ "2025-10-01", 53.72 ], [ "2025-12-01", 34.95 ], [ "2026-02-01", 57.83 ], [ "2026-04-01", 61.24 ], [ "2026-06-01", 52.51 ], [ "2026-08-01", 34.77 ] ] }, "nfci": { "key": "nfci", "label": "Finanzierungsbedingungen (NFCI)", "unit": "Index", "decimals": 2, "note": "Chicago-Fed-Sammelindex aus \u00fcber 100 Reihen zu Geldmarkt, Kredit und Hebel; positiv = straffer als der historische Durchschnitt. Das Ende der Kette: Hier entscheidet sich, ob ein Finanzschock die Realwirtschaft erreicht.", "source": "Chicago Fed \u00fcber FRED (NFCI), w\u00f6chentlich ab 1971", "raw": -0.55, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "start": "1971-01-01", "mode": "track", "tcode": "LEVEL", "tcode_label": "Niveau", "stress": 32.04, "status": "ruhig", "spark": [ [ "1980-12-01", 93.33 ], [ "1981-04-01", 75.0 ], [ "1981-08-01", 93.75 ], [ "1981-12-01", 78.79 ], [ "1982-04-01", 79.41 ], [ "1982-08-01", 92.14 ], [ "1982-12-01", 43.06 ], [ "1983-04-01", 23.65 ], [ "1983-08-01", 24.34 ], [ "1983-12-01", 31.41 ], [ "1984-04-01", 36.25 ], [ "1984-08-01", 49.39 ], [ "1984-12-01", 17.26 ], [ "1985-04-01", 14.53 ], [ "1985-08-01", 21.02 ], [ "1985-12-01", 17.22 ], [ "1986-04-01", 13.04 ], [ "1986-08-01", 7.98 ], [ "1986-12-01", 10.42 ], [ "1987-04-01", 42.86 ], [ "1987-08-01", 37.5 ], [ "1987-12-01", 60.78 ], [ "1988-04-01", 44.71 ], [ "1988-08-01", 50.47 ], [ "1988-12-01", 41.2 ], [ "1989-04-01", 59.09 ], [ "1989-08-01", 44.2 ], [ "1989-12-01", 34.21 ], [ "1990-04-01", 37.5 ], [ "1990-08-01", 37.71 ], [ "1990-12-01", 57.08 ], [ "1991-04-01", 22.54 ], [ "1991-08-01", 8.87 ], [ "1991-12-01", 4.76 ], [ "1992-04-01", 2.34 ], [ "1992-08-01", 1.15 ], [ "1992-12-01", 3.03 ], [ "1993-04-01", 0.37 ], [ "1993-08-01", 0.37 ], [ "1993-12-01", 2.9 ], [ "1994-04-01", 8.93 ], [ "1994-08-01", 8.8 ], [ "1994-12-01", 24.65 ], [ "1995-04-01", 15.41 ], [ "1995-08-01", 13.51 ], [ "1995-12-01", 9.0 ], [ "1996-04-01", 16.12 ], [ "1996-08-01", 11.69 ], [ "1996-12-01", 13.14 ], [ "1997-04-01", 21.84 ], [ "1997-08-01", 21.56 ], [ "1997-12-01", 29.94 ], [ "1998-04-01", 24.7 ], [ "1998-08-01", 35.54 ], [ "1998-12-01", 44.64 ], [ "1999-04-01", 34.12 ], [ "1999-08-01", 45.06 ], [ "1999-12-01", 44.83 ], [ "2000-04-01", 51.14 ], [ "2000-08-01", 43.54 ], [ "2000-12-01", 50.56 ], [ "2001-04-01", 36.81 ], [ "2001-08-01", 29.35 ], [ "2001-12-01", 35.75 ], [ "2002-04-01", 25.27 ], [ "2002-08-01", 34.21 ], [ "2002-12-01", 32.03 ], [ "2003-04-01", 20.88 ], [ "2003-08-01", 17.86 ], [ "2003-12-01", 15.66 ], [ "2004-04-01", 8.75 ], [ "2004-08-01", 18.56 ], [ "2004-12-01", 18.38 ], [ "2005-04-01", 26.21 ], [ "2005-08-01", 27.16 ], [ "2005-12-01", 32.14 ], [ "2006-04-01", 26.65 ], [ "2006-08-01", 30.61 ], [ "2006-12-01", 26.62 ], [ "2007-04-01", 30.5 ], [ "2007-08-01", 65.0 ], [ "2007-12-01", 77.7 ], [ "2008-04-01", 80.8 ], [ "2008-08-01", 79.87 ], [ "2008-12-01", 95.83 ], [ "2009-04-01", 86.96 ], [ "2009-08-01", 68.75 ], [ "2009-12-01", 54.7 ], [ "2010-04-01", 37.5 ], [ "2010-08-01", 44.96 ], [ "2010-12-01", 31.67 ], [ "2011-04-01", 22.73 ], [ "2011-08-01", 46.72 ], [ "2011-12-01", 52.85 ], [ "2012-04-01", 37.3 ], [ "2012-08-01", 35.8 ], [ "2012-12-01", 22.02 ], [ "2013-04-01", 9.84 ], [ "2013-08-01", 12.7 ], [ "2013-12-01", 5.23 ], [ "2014-04-01", 5.96 ], [ "2014-08-01", 8.59 ], [ "2014-12-01", 25.0 ], [ "2015-04-01", 32.33 ], [ "2015-08-01", 41.23 ], [ "2015-12-01", 44.81 ], [ "2016-04-01", 44.85 ], [ "2016-08-01", 46.35 ], [ "2016-12-01", 39.86 ], [ "2017-04-01", 35.79 ], [ "2017-08-01", 28.39 ], [ "2017-12-01", 24.11 ], [ "2018-04-01", 35.74 ], [ "2018-08-01", 25.35 ], [ "2018-12-01", 43.75 ], [ "2019-04-01", 22.76 ], [ "2019-08-01", 33.22 ], [ "2019-12-01", 31.29 ], [ "2020-04-01", 74.66 ], [ "2020-08-01", 37.92 ], [ "2020-12-01", 24.5 ], [ "2021-04-01", 15.89 ], [ "2021-08-01", 19.41 ], [ "2021-12-01", 35.13 ], [ "2022-04-01", 53.25 ], [ "2022-08-01", 58.23 ], [ "2022-12-01", 59.78 ], [ "2023-04-01", 61.31 ], [ "2023-08-01", 53.16 ], [ "2023-12-01", 51.73 ], [ "2024-04-01", 45.94 ], [ "2024-08-01", 49.38 ], [ "2024-12-01", 40.28 ], [ "2025-04-01", 48.62 ], [ "2025-08-01", 35.52 ], [ "2025-12-01", 35.3 ], [ "2026-04-01", 41.27 ], [ "2026-08-01", 32.04 ] ] } }, "nodes": [ { "key": "hormuz", "label": "Stra\u00dfe von Hormus / \u00d6langebot", "region": "Geopolitik", "desc": "Der wichtigste Energie-Chokepoint der Welt. Eine Sperrung wirkt nicht als eigener Datenpunkt, sondern \u00fcber den Preis \u2014 gemessen wird deshalb der \u00d6lpreisschub.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "oil_brent", "stress": 75.0, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 89.3, "unit": "USD/Barrel", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "energy_inflation", "label": "Energie- und Importinflation", "region": "USA / global", "desc": "Der \u00dcbersetzer zwischen Rohstoffschock und Geldpolitik: Energie-Teuerung bindet Notenbanken und Haushalte.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "cpi_energy", "stress": 84.06, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 314.6, "unit": "Index 1982\u201384=100", "as_of": "2026-07-01" }, { "key": "japan_jgb", "label": "JGB-Markt / Bank of Japan", "region": "Japan", "desc": "Jahrzehnte Nullzins haben die gr\u00f6\u00dften Anleihebest\u00e4nde der Welt aufget\u00fcrmt; jede Normalisierung erzeugt Kursverluste bei denen, die sie halten.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "jgb10y", "stress": 97.49, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 2.67, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-06-01" }, { "key": "jp_institutions", "label": "Japanische Institutionelle", "region": "Japan", "desc": "Das Scharnier der Kette: Wer JGB-Verluste erleidet, kann gezwungen sein, Auslandsanlagen zu verkaufen \u2014 Repatriierung.", "kind": "unobserved", "stress": null, "status": "unbeobachtet", "why": "Banken, Lebensversicherer und Pensionsfonds tragen die JGB-Kursverluste und halten zugleich gro\u00dfe Auslandsbest\u00e4nde. Es gibt keine \u00f6ffentliche Hochfrequenzreihe zu ihren Bewertungsverlusten oder Umschichtungen; die Exponierung ist in BOJ Financial System Report und IMF GFSR beschrieben." }, { "key": "yen_carry", "label": "Yen-Carry-Trade", "region": "global", "desc": "Billig Yen leihen, h\u00f6her verzinst anlegen: Die Finanzierungsw\u00e4hrung der Welt. Schrumpft die Zinsdifferenz, werden Positionen aufgel\u00f6st \u2014 und Aufl\u00f6sen hei\u00dft Verkaufen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "usdjpy", "stress": 46.04, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 159.0, "unit": "Yen je USD", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "us_treasuries", "label": "US-Treasury-Markt", "region": "USA", "desc": "Sicherheitenbasis des Weltfinanzsystems und zugleich Refinanzierungsquelle des US-Staates \u2014 der Knoten, an dem Auslands- und Inlandsstress zusammenlaufen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "ust10y", "stress": 63.48, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 4.67, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "repo_collateral", "label": "Repo und Sicherheiten", "region": "USA", "desc": "Wo Sicherheitenwerte auf Hebel treffen: Fallende Anleihekurse l\u00f6sen Nachschusspflichten aus, Deleveraging der Basis-Trades verknappt Bilanz.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "sofr_iorb", "stress": null, "status": "ruhig", "raw": -0.01, "unit": "%-Punkte", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "dollar_funding", "label": "Globale Dollar-Finanzierung", "region": "global", "desc": "Dollar-Knappheit zeigt sich in der Aufwertung des handelsgewichteten Dollar; die Basis-Swap-Aufschl\u00e4ge, die sie pr\u00e4ziser messen w\u00fcrden, haben keinen keylosen Endpunkt.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "dollar_index", "stress": 20.1, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 119.06, "unit": "Index 2006=100", "as_of": "2026-08-07" }, { "key": "risk_assets", "label": "Globaler Risikoabbau", "region": "global", "desc": "Die sichtbare Oberfl\u00e4che eines Unwinds: Volatilit\u00e4t springt, wenn gehebelte Positionen gleichzeitig durch dieselbe T\u00fcr wollen.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "vix", "stress": 34.77, "status": "ruhig", "raw": 15.6, "unit": "Punkte", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "credit_conditions", "label": "US-Finanzierungsbedingungen", "region": "USA", "desc": "Das Ende der Kette: Versch\u00e4rfen sich Kreditkonditionen, erreicht der Finanzschock Unternehmen und Haushalte.", "kind": "monitor", "monitor": "nfci", "stress": 32.04, "status": "ruhig", "raw": -0.55, "unit": "Index", "as_of": "2026-08-01" }, { "key": "us_fiscal", "label": "US-Zinslast", "region": "USA", "desc": "H\u00f6here Marktrenditen wandern \u00fcber die Refinanzierung in den Bundeshaushalt \u2014 der Verbindungspunkt zur Turchin-S\u00e4ule.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "interest_burden", "stress": 78.3, "status": "erhoeht", "raw": 21.2, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-04-01" }, { "key": "reserve_status", "label": "Dollar-Reservestatus", "region": "global", "desc": "Die langsamste Gr\u00f6\u00dfe der Karte: Ob Zentralbanken die US-Verbindlichkeit weiter als Wertaufbewahrung akzeptieren \u2014 der Verbindungspunkt zur Dollar-S\u00e4ule.", "kind": "indicator", "indicator": "dollar_reserve_share", "stress": 96.3, "status": "aktiv", "raw": 57.13, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-03-01" } ], "edges": [ { "src": "hormuz", "dst": "energy_inflation", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Chokepoint-Pr\u00e4mie: Angebotsrisiko treibt Roh\u00f6l- und Frachtpreise, die in die Energie-Verbraucherpreise laufen.", "source": "Hamilton (1983); IEA Oil Market Report", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "energy_inflation", "dst": "japan_jgb", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Japan importiert nahezu seine gesamte Energie; Importinflation erh\u00f6ht den Straffungsdruck auf die Bank of Japan und damit die JGB-Renditen.", "source": "IMF Article IV Japan; BOJ Outlook Report", "status": "gespannt" }, { "src": "japan_jgb", "dst": "jp_institutions", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Bond-Mathematik: Renditeanstieg hei\u00dft Kursverlust auf Bestandsanleihen \u2014 Bewertungsdruck auf Banken, Versicherer, Pensionsfonds.", "source": "BOJ Financial System Report", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "japan_jgb", "dst": "yen_carry", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Steigende Heimzinsen verengen die Zinsdifferenz \u2014 die Gesch\u00e4ftsgrundlage des Carry Trade.", "source": "BIS Bulletin 90 (2024)", "status": "quelle_heiss" }, { "src": "jp_institutions", "dst": "us_treasuries", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Repatriierung: Japan ist der gr\u00f6\u00dfte ausl\u00e4ndische Treasury-Gl\u00e4ubiger (~1,1 Bio. USD). Verk\u00e4ufe zur Deckung heimischer Verluste heben US-Renditen.", "source": "US Treasury TIC; IMF Global Financial Stability Report", "status": "unbewertbar" }, { "src": "yen_carry", "dst": "risk_assets", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Zwangsaufl\u00f6sung gehebelter Positionen erzeugt Verkaufsdruck auf Risikoanlagen weltweit \u2014 Episode vom August 2024.", "source": "BIS Quarterly Review, September 2024", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "us_treasuries", "dst": "repo_collateral", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Renditeanstieg senkt Sicherheitenwerte, l\u00f6st Nachschusspflichten aus und zwingt Basis-Trades ins Deleveraging.", "source": "BIS/Fed-Analysen zum M\u00e4rz 2020 (Dash for Cash)", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "repo_collateral", "dst": "dollar_funding", "grade": "B", "mechanism": "Repo-Stress verknappt Dollar-Bilanz weltweit; die Knappheit zeigt sich in Basis-Swaps und Dollar-Aufwertung.", "source": "BIS Global Liquidity Indicators", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "dollar_funding", "dst": "credit_conditions", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Teurere Dollarfinanzierung versch\u00e4rft Spreads und Kreditkonditionen bis in die Realwirtschaft.", "source": "Chicago Fed, NFCI-Systematik", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "risk_assets", "dst": "credit_conditions", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Risikoabbau weitet Spreads und verteuert Unternehmensfinanzierung.", "source": "Gilchrist/Zakraj\u0161ek (2012), Excess Bond Premium", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "us_treasuries", "dst": "us_fiscal", "grade": "A", "mechanism": "Marktrenditen wandern mit der Refinanzierung des Schuldenbestands in die Zinslast des Bundes \u2014 mechanisch, aber verz\u00f6gert.", "source": "Congressional Budget Office, Budget Outlook", "status": "ruhig" }, { "src": "us_fiscal", "dst": "reserve_status", "grade": "C", "mechanism": "Fiskaldominanz n\u00e4hrt Zweifel an der Verbindlichkeit als Wertaufbewahrung; Zentralbanken diversifizieren in Gold.", "source": "IMF COFER; World Gold Council, Zentralbankk\u00e4ufe", "status": "gespannt" } ], "n_nodes_hot": 5, "n_edges_tense": 3, "n_unobserved": 1, "failures": [], "method": "Monitore: Monatsmittel, deklarierte Transformationsrolle, expandierendes Perzentil ohne Look-ahead (Burn-in 120 Monate). Knoten mit S\u00e4ulen-Indikator zeigen dessen Vollhistorien-Druckwert. Kantenstatus ist deskriptiv: \u201egespannt\u201c hei\u00dft, beide Enden stehen \u00fcber dem oberen Quartil ihrer Historie \u2014 nicht, dass \u00dcbertragung stattfindet." }, "overlap_audit": [ { "valve_key": "fiskal", "valve_label": "Fiskal-Ventil", "indicator_key": "interest_burden", "indicator_label": "Zinslast \u00f7 Bundeseinnahmen", "basis": "identischer Serien-Bauplan \u2014 derselbe Sachverhalt steht im Druck-Set und im Resilienz-Set" }, { "valve_key": "legitimation", "valve_label": "Legitimations-Ventil", "indicator_key": "consumer_sentiment", "indicator_label": "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "basis": "identischer Serien-Bauplan \u2014 derselbe Sachverhalt steht im Druck-Set und im Resilienz-Set" } ], "transform_roles": { "relative_wage": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "s\u00e4kular fallende Verh\u00e4ltniszahl \u2014 Alarm ist der Einbruch unter den eigenen Trend, nicht der arithmetisch erwartbare Tiefstand", "params": null }, "labor_share": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "f\u00e4llt seit 1947 fast monoton; Niveau-Perzentil w\u00e4re Trendfallen-Artefakt", "params": null }, "real_wage_prod": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "real trendend gewachsen; Stress ist Stagnation/R\u00fcckfall unter den eigenen Pfad", "params": null }, "housing_affordability": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Jahresgeh\u00e4lter pro Haus sind eine begrenzte Belastungsquote \u2014 das Niveau ist die Zumutung", "params": null }, "life_expectancy": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "steigt s\u00e4kular; die Verelendungsaussage ist der Abfall unter den eigenen Trend (deaths of despair)", "params": null }, "top1_income_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Anteil mit vollem S\u00e4kularzyklus seit 1913 (1928er-Maximum) \u2014 das Niveau ist Turchins Messgr\u00f6\u00dfe", "params": null }, "wealth_top1": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Verm\u00f6gensanteil, kurze Reihe \u2014 Niveau als Konzentrationsma\u00df", "params": null }, "wealth_ratio_top_bottom": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "nach oben offenes Verh\u00e4ltnis, seit 1989 fast monoton steigend \u2014 Trendabstand statt Rekord-Arithmetik", "params": null }, "tuition_real": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "realer Preisindex mit Jahrzehnttrend; Stress ist Beschleunigung \u00fcber den eigenen Pfad", "params": null }, "elite_squeeze": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Anteil der Anw\u00e4rterschicht \u2014 das Niveau misst die Verdr\u00e4ngung", "params": null }, "debt_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Tragf\u00e4higkeit h\u00e4ngt am Niveau der Quote; die Dynamik wird separat in Ebene 4 gemessen", "params": null }, "interest_burden": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "zyklische Flussgr\u00f6\u00dfen-Quote (Maximum 1991) \u2014 das Niveau ist die fiskalische Bindung", "params": null }, "deficit_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4rer Saldo in BIP-Prozent", "params": null }, "policy_uncertainty": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "gegl\u00e4tteter, langfristig station\u00e4rer Zeitungsindex", "params": null }, "consumer_sentiment": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Umfrageindex ohne S\u00e4kulartrend-Konstruktion", "params": null }, "profit_rate": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "zyklische Rate \u2014 genau die Gr\u00f6\u00dfe, deren Niveau die Marx-These pr\u00fcft", "params": null }, "profit_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzte BIP-Quote", "params": null }, "capacity_utilization": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzte Auslastungsquote, mean-reverting", "params": null }, "net_investment": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Flussgr\u00f6\u00dfe in BIP-Prozent", "params": null }, "inventory_sales": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4res Umschlagsverh\u00e4ltnis", "params": null }, "financial_profit_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Gewinnanteil", "params": null }, "total_debt_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Tragf\u00e4higkeitsniveau wie debt_gdp; Dynamik separat in Ebene 4", "params": null }, "buffett_indicator": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "Bewertungsquote mit strukturellem Aufw\u00e4rtstrend (Aktienkultur, Gewinnverlagerung) \u2014 Stress ist der Abstand zum eigenen Pfad", "params": null }, "prod_wage_gap": { "tcode": "TREND_GAP", "label": "Abstand zum eigenen Trend", "why": "seit den 1970ern fast monoton \u00f6ffnende Schere; Niveau-Rekord w\u00e4re Trendfallen-Artefakt", "params": null }, "dollar_reserve_share": { "tcode": "CHANGE", "label": "Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "why": "Niveau UND Tempo relevant; als Stressma\u00df z\u00e4hlt das Erosionstempo \u2014 das Niveau zeigt die S\u00e4ulenrechnung", "params": null }, "foreign_holdings": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Finanzierungsanteil", "params": null }, "fed_monetization": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Selbstfinanzierungsanteil", "params": null }, "purchasing_power": { "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "why": "f\u00e4llt per Konstruktion monoton \u2014 nur das Entwertungstempo (\u2248 Inflationsregime) tr\u00e4gt Information", "params": null }, "gold_real": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "realer Preis pendelt \u00fcber Jahrzehnte (1980, 2011, heute) \u2014 das Niveau ist das Misstrauensvotum", "params": null }, "real_policy_rate": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4re reale Rate", "params": null }, "niip_gdp": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Nettoposition in BIP-Prozent \u2014 Tragf\u00e4higkeitsniveau, Dynamik in Ebene 4", "params": null }, "current_account": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "station\u00e4rer Saldo in BIP-Prozent", "params": null }, "dollar_index": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "kurze FX-Reihe ohne S\u00e4kulartrend", "params": null }, "co2": { "tcode": "THRESHOLD_DISTANCE", "label": "Abstand zur physischen Grenze", "why": "physische Grenze 350 ppm (Rockstr\u00f6m et al.) \u2014 hier IST das Niveau der Punkt, gemessen als Abstand zur Grenze", "params": { "threshold": 350.0, "danger_above": true } }, "temp_anomaly": { "tcode": "THRESHOLD_DISTANCE", "label": "Abstand zur physischen Grenze", "why": "physische Grenze 1,5 \u00b0C (Paris) \u2014 Abstand zur Schwelle statt Rangstatistik", "params": { "threshold": 1.5, "danger_above": true } }, "living_planet": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Bestandsindex \u2014 der Zustand der Biosph\u00e4re ist ein Niveau, kein Trendabstand", "params": null }, "forest_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Fl\u00e4chenbestand", "params": null }, "fertilizer": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Stoffeintrag; die N/P-Grenzen sind weit \u00fcberschritten \u2014 das Niveau ist die Belastung", "params": null }, "material_footprint": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "physischer Durchsatz pro Kopf", "params": null }, "renewable_share": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "begrenzter Energieanteil", "params": null }, "food_price": { "tcode": "LOG_CHANGE", "label": "log. Jahresver\u00e4nderung", "why": "nominaler Preisindex \u2014 systemrelevant sind die Preissch\u00fcbe (2008, 2011), nicht das inflationsgetriebene Niveau", "params": null }, "overshoot_day": { "tcode": "LEVEL", "label": "Niveau", "why": "Tag im Jahr ist ein begrenztes physisches Budgetma\u00df", "params": null } }, "falsification": { "contra_indicators": [ { "key": "life_expectancy", "label": "Lebenserwartung bei Geburt", "pillar": "turchin", "pressure": 0.0, "raw": 78.89, "unit": "Jahre", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 0 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1960 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "renewable_share", "label": "Anteil Erneuerbarer an der Prim\u00e4renergie", "pillar": "planetar", "pressure": 0.0, "raw": 8.59, "unit": "%", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 0 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1965 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "profit_rate", "label": "Profitrate (Gewinn \u00f7 Kapitalstock)", "pillar": "akkumulation", "pressure": 0.3, "raw": 9.06, "unit": "%", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 0 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1947 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "real_wage_prod", "label": "Realer Stundenlohn (Produktionsarbeiter)", "pillar": "turchin", "pressure": 1.3, "raw": 32.4, "unit": "USD/h, heutige Preise", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 1 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1964 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "inventory_sales", "label": "Lagerbest\u00e4nde \u00f7 Umsatz", "pillar": "akkumulation", "pressure": 18.4, "raw": 1.28, "unit": "Monate", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 18 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1992 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "dollar_index", "label": "Handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs", "pillar": "fiat", "pressure": 20.1, "raw": 119.06, "unit": "Index 2006=100", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 20 % aller Beobachtungen seit 2006 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" }, { "key": "foreign_holdings", "label": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen", "pillar": "fiat", "pressure": 32.6, "raw": 24.07, "unit": "%", "why": "heute gef\u00e4hrlicher als in nur 33 % aller Beobachtungen seit 1970 \u2014 der historische Normalfall war angespannter als die Lage heute" } ], "n_contra": 7, "criteria": [ { "claim": "Die Ventile sind verbraucht.", "refuted_if": "Der mittlere Restweg \u00fcber alle acht Ventile steigt \u00fcber 60 % \u2014 dann hat das System weiterhin geordnete Wege, Druck abzulassen.", "check": "mean_room_gt_60", "status": "haelt", "detail": "mittlerer Restweg 34 %" }, { "claim": "Die Krisenkonstellation ist vollst\u00e4ndig.", "refuted_if": "Eine der drei Turchin-Komponenten f\u00e4llt unter 40 \u2014 dann fehlt eine notwendige Bedingung.", "check": "psi_component_lt_40", "status": "haelt", "detail": "schw\u00e4chste Komponente: Massenmobilisierungspotenzial bei 60" }, { "claim": "Das System verliert seine R\u00fcckstellkraft.", "refuted_if": "Kein einziger der gepr\u00fcften Kernindikatoren zeigt ein mindestens erkennbares Verlangsamungssignal (steigende Autokorrelation UND steigende Varianz, beide Trends \u2265 0,25).", "check": "no_csd_signal", "status": "haelt", "detail": "1 von 6 Kernreihen mit Signal" }, { "claim": "Die Reall\u00f6hne entkoppeln sich dauerhaft von der Produktivit\u00e4t.", "refuted_if": "Die Lohnquote steigt \u00fcber mehrere Jahre wieder an.", "check": "labor_share_rising", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Lohnquote 10-Jahres-Ver\u00e4nderung -5.9" }, { "claim": "Die Dollarordnung erodiert.", "refuted_if": "Auslandsanteil an US-Staatsanleihen und handelsgewichteter Dollarkurs steigen gemeinsam \u00fcber mehrere Jahre.", "check": "dollar_strengthening", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Dollarkurs +6.7, Auslandsanteil -8.4 (10 Jahre)" }, { "claim": "Die Krisendimensionen treten gleichzeitig auf.", "refuted_if": "Der Co-Stress-Anteil (gleichzeitig extreme Reihen) liegt unter dem Median seiner eigenen Historie \u2014 dann ist die heutige Gleichzeitigkeit historisch unauff\u00e4llig.", "check": "costress_below_median", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Gleichzeitigkeit heute 43 %, mindestens so hoch in 14 % aller Jahre" }, { "claim": "Die Absorptionsf\u00e4higkeit des Systems nimmt ab.", "refuted_if": "Der Resilienz-Index steigt \u00fcber 60 \u2014 dann verf\u00fcgt das System \u00fcber \u00fcberwiegend offene Ausgleichswege.", "check": "resilience_above_60", "status": "haelt", "detail": "Resilienz-Index 39 von 100" } ], "n_refuted": 0, "summary": "7 Indikatoren liegen unter dem Median ihrer eigenen Historie und sprechen damit gegen die Krisenthese; 0 von 7 formulierten Widerlegungskriterien greifen aktuell." }, "records": [ { "key": "labor_share", "label": "Lohnquote (Unternehmenssektor)", "pillar": "turchin", "raw": 93.5, "unit": "Index 2017=100", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "since": null, "start": "1947-01-01", "direction": "Tiefststand" }, { "key": "consumer_sentiment", "label": "Verbrauchervertrauen (Michigan)", "pillar": "turchin", "raw": 49.5, "unit": "Index", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "since": null, "start": "1952-11-01", "direction": "Tiefststand" }, { "key": "dollar_reserve_share", "label": "Dollar-Anteil an den Weltw\u00e4hrungsreserven", "pillar": "fiat", "raw": 57.13, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-03-01", "since": null, "start": "1999-03-01", "direction": "Tiefststand" }, { "key": "gold_real", "label": "Realer Goldpreis", "pillar": "fiat", "raw": 4427.0, "unit": "USD, heutige Preise", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "since": null, "start": "1968-04-01", "direction": "H\u00f6chststand" }, { "key": "temp_anomaly", "label": "Globale Temperaturabweichung", "pillar": "planetar", "raw": 1.19, "unit": "\u00b0C gg\u00fc. 1951\u201380", "as_of": "2025-12-31", "since": null, "start": "1880-12-31", "direction": "H\u00f6chststand" } ], "planetary_boundaries": { "source": "Planetary Health Check 2025, PBScience (Potsdam-Institut f\u00fcr Klimafolgenforschung u.a.), Executive Summary", "as_of": "2025-09", "static": true, "n_total": 9, "n_transgressed": 7, "boundaries": [ { "name": "Klimawandel", "variable": "CO\u2082-Konzentration", "unit": "ppm", "boundary": 350, "high_risk": 450, "value": 423, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Klimawandel", "variable": "Strahlungsantrieb", "unit": "W/m\u00b2", "boundary": 1.0, "high_risk": 1.5, "value": 2.97, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Integrit\u00e4t der Biosph\u00e4re", "variable": "Menschliche Aneignung der Prim\u00e4rproduktion", "unit": "%", "boundary": 10, "high_risk": 20, "value": 30, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Integrit\u00e4t der Biosph\u00e4re", "variable": "Aussterberate", "unit": "E/MSY", "boundary": 10, "high_risk": 100, "value": 100, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend", "note": "Sch\u00e4tzbereich 100\u20131000, hier untere Grenze" }, { "name": "Landnutzungswandel", "variable": "Verbleibende Waldfl\u00e4che", "unit": "% des urspr\u00fcnglichen Waldes", "boundary": 75, "high_risk": 54, "value": 59, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "fallend", "note": "Hier sind Werte UNTER der Grenze das Problem" }, { "name": "S\u00fc\u00dfwasserwandel", "variable": "Gest\u00f6rter Abfluss (Blauwasser)", "unit": "% der Landfl\u00e4che", "boundary": 12.9, "high_risk": 50, "value": 22.6, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "S\u00fc\u00dfwasserwandel", "variable": "Gest\u00f6rte Bodenfeuchte (Gr\u00fcnwasser)", "unit": "% der Landfl\u00e4che", "boundary": 12.4, "high_risk": 50, "value": 22.0, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Biogeochemische Kreisl\u00e4ufe", "variable": "Phosphor auf Ackerland", "unit": "Tg/Jahr", "boundary": 6.2, "high_risk": 11.2, "value": 18.2, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Biogeochemische Kreisl\u00e4ufe", "variable": "Stickstofffixierung", "unit": "Tg/Jahr", "boundary": 62, "high_risk": 82, "value": 165, "status": "hochrisiko", "trend": "steigend" }, { "name": "Ozeanversauerung", "variable": "Aragonit-S\u00e4ttigung", "unit": "\u03a9", "boundary": 2.86, "high_risk": 2.75, "value": 2.84, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "fallend", "note": "Erstmals im Bericht 2025 als \u00fcberschritten ausgewiesen" }, { "name": "Aerosolbelastung", "variable": "Interhemisph\u00e4rische AOD-Differenz", "unit": "", "boundary": 0.1, "high_risk": 0.25, "value": 0.063, "status": "eingehalten", "trend": "verbessernd" }, { "name": "Stratosph\u00e4risches Ozon", "variable": "Globales Mittel", "unit": "DU", "boundary": 277, "high_risk": 263, "value": 285.7, "status": "eingehalten", "trend": "erholend" }, { "name": "Neuartige Substanzen", "variable": "Ungepr\u00fcfte synthetische Chemikalien", "unit": "", "boundary": 0, "high_risk": null, "value": null, "status": "ueberschritten", "trend": "verschlechternd", "note": "Nicht quantifiziert; der Bericht stuft die Grenze als \u00fcberschritten ein" } ] }, "groups": { "mmp": "Lage der Mehrheit", "emp": "Eliten\u00fcberproduktion", "sfd": "Staatliche Fiskalkrise", "instab": "Realisierte Instabilit\u00e4t (Ergebnisgr\u00f6\u00dfe, nicht Teil des PSI)", "profit": "Profitabilit\u00e4t", "realisierung": "Realisierung und Absatz", "finanzialisierung": "Finanzialisierung", "reserve": "Reservestatus", "geldwert": "Geldwert", "aussenposition": "Au\u00dfenposition", "biosphaere": "Biosph\u00e4re", "stoffstrom": "Stoffstr\u00f6me" }, "coverage": { "n_indicators": 42, "n_configured": 42, "failures": [], "oldest_start": "1880-12-31" }, "compute_seconds": 1.5 }